Rob Neyer

  (12:04 PM)

Welcome, comrades. I'm semi-vacationing, and writing from within a football field of the Pacific's crashing waves. I'll try to focus on the issues at hand...

Mike (Boston, MA)

Rob, are you excited about the beginning of the Charlie Zink era tonight?

Rob Neyer

  (12:05 PM)

Exceptionally excited, though I fear the beginning of CZE will last only a couple of starts. I'm afraid he'll have to wait until Wakefield retires for his real shot. And who knows when that will happen?

Matt (Arlington, VA)

Are there some teams that routinely out perform or under perform their run differential? If so, are there any attempts to explain what's going on in these cases?

Rob Neyer

  (12:08 PM)

I don't think you could study teams, because even if a team did it for three straight years, that would be within the bounds of statistical variation. And once you get beyond three years, you're going to have non-constant personnel (I'm speaking roughly, of course). I think what you'd want to try to spot are team *characteristics* -- regardless of the actual teams -- that result in odd records vs. run differentials. But to answer your question: No, I don't think anybody's found anything yet.

Cesare (Jet City, Wa)

Mister Neyer, did the Reds do the right thing in trading Adam Dunn? It doesn't look like a very fruitful free agent pool and meanwhile the Reds don't have anyone chomping on the bit in the minors. How will they replace his power?

Rob Neyer

  (12:09 PM)

They probably can't replace his power, except Votto and Bruce will hit more home runs next year than they're going to hit this year. I do think the Reds had to trade Dunn since they weren't going to re-sign him.

Pete (Milwaukee, WI)

If Ryan Braun has to go on the DL because of his back issues, will the Brewers be able to tread water long enough to maintain the wild card lead?

Rob Neyer

  (12:11 PM)

Yeah, I think so, as they're now fairly deep. I still say the real key is Ben Sheets; if he's healthy the Brewers are in the playoffs.

Jason (Detroit)

Rob, will anybody take on the perpetually unhappy Gary Sheffield? Contenders are losing sluggers left and right. Maybe the Tigers eat some salary?

Rob Neyer

  (12:13 PM)

At some point, a player should come home to roost. The Yankees were able to dump Sheffield, but I'd like to see the Tigers get stuck with him. In a perfect world, teams would have to pay for all their mistakes. And Sheffield's contract is a big one.

David (Boston)

Rob what do you think the Red Sox will do in the off season with Manny's contract finally off the books? Starting pitching?

Rob Neyer

  (12:18 PM)

Sure, the Sox may make a run at Sabathia. But aside from him and A.J. Burnett -- and oft-injured Ben Sheets -- there just aren't many top-flight starting pitchers available this winter. Not many second basemen, either. I'm sure the Sox will spend this winter, but aside from perhaps locking up Pedroia and Lester, I'm not sure how they'll spend it.

dave (chicago)

So there is still no correlation between a strong bullpen and winning close games? I find that so hard to believe...I thought the Cubs were a great example of that last year. They reversed their ability to win close games when their bullpen dramatically improved...once again though small sample size.

Rob Neyer

  (12:18 PM)

Sorry, but no. Not strong. There is a correlation, but it's something like two or three wins, at most.

Steve (SLC)

Rob, if you had the chance right now, what would you say to the Yankee fan who wrote in last week trying to to get you to say that the Angels were not the best team in the AL?

Rob Neyer

  (12:20 PM)

A week ago, I'd have agreed with him. Today, with two of Tampa Bay's everyday players on the DL, I think he may be right. The Red Sox are still real good, though.

Chris (Phoenix)

Did the Diamondbacks make a good decision picking up Dunn?

Rob Neyer

  (12:23 PM)

Considering what they've been getting from their left fielders -- essentially nothing -- I don't see how it's not a good decision, unless they're giving up good prospects. Which I don't think is the case.

Craig (PA)

Hey Rob, as a Dodgers fan, how should a deal with the stress of a stingy owner of a big market team? It seems we could've gotten some more talent at the break (Sabathia, Maddux) if McCourt had been willing to spend.

Rob Neyer

  (12:25 PM)

But he's been willing to spend, and what good has it done? I think McCourt may finally have realized that giving his GM money is like flushing it down the toilet.

Adam (Chicago, IL)

Question concerning the CZE...has there ever been a team to roster two knucklers in their starting rotation? Will we ever see the day?

Rob Neyer

  (12:28 PM)

Sure. Phil and Joe Niekro teamed up briefly with the Yankees in 1985. Before them, though, I think you have to go back to 1945 and the Washington Senators, who had three (or perhaps four) knuckleballers in the rotation.

Craig (PA)

Quick follow-up, so you're saying the Dodgers problem is Colletti not McCourt. Then why not just promote Logan White?

Rob Neyer

  (12:28 PM)

I suspect that'll happen in two months if the Dodgers finish behind the D'backs.

Noah (Chicago)

Do you see Ken Griffey Jr. being one-and-done with the White Sox this year? He hasn't been very productive at all and has very limited range in the outfield.

Rob Neyer

  (12:33 PM)

Well, the club's got a $16 million option with a $4 million buyout, which essentially means another season of Griffey will cost $12 million. He's not worth half that.

Kyle, Chicago

Are the Cubs better off with sticking it out with Kosuke in right field or benching him and going with a combination of DeRosa / Reed Johnson / Fontenot? Could Micah Hoffpauir get called up and get some starts in right field considering he is a hot left handed power bat in AAA?

Rob Neyer

  (12:35 PM)

I don't believe in benching a player because he hasn't played well over a relatively short stretch *unless* you have a good reason to think he's going to continue not playing well. Does Uncle Lou have that good reason?

Mitch ( LA , CA)

When do we see David Price come up and put the Rays over the top with their pitching?

Rob Neyer

  (12:36 PM)

I don't know that he's a difference-maker, but I do think we'll see him pitching out of the bullpen in September.

Steve (NYC)

Is there any downside to Wake and Zink being in the same rotation? (It's not like Tek is really any better of a hitter than Cash anymore)...

Rob Neyer

  (12:38 PM)

It's just not really done, Steve. Especially by a good team. If Wakefield's going to hang around for another year or three, Zink probably has to find himself another team.

Eric (Ohio)

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Tom Candiotti and Phil Niekro both played for the Indians during the 1986 and 1987 seasons.

Rob Neyer

  (12:39 PM)

Of course! Niekro tutored Candiotti. I should be smoted for forgetting that.

DT (Detroit)

Any chance Dontrelle can make it back to be a back end starter? Any idea why Dombrowski gave him over 30 million before seeing him play for the Tigers?

Rob Neyer

  (12:41 PM)

I guess Dombrowski figured his scouts were smarter than the stats. Hey, sometimes that works...

Brian (CA)

Rob, so you are saying the Angels are best team in baseball? To me the only thing missing was the offense, and with Tex on board and the rest of the lineup starting to produce like they're capable of, there's no question they are. Agree?

Rob Neyer

  (12:46 PM)

Yeah, basically. And by the way, what about this Jose Arredondo guy? Is he the best reliever nobody's talking about?

John (Buffalo)

Mets bullpen stinks - what monies would you offer for K-Rod's services next season???

Rob Neyer

  (12:47 PM)

Interesting notion, John, but Billy Wagner's signed at $10.5 million for next season. You want to tell one of those guys he's shifting to setup duties?

Eric (Chicago)

Rob, who is first for saves in Anaheim once K-Rod leaves for the money? Shields?

Rob Neyer

  (12:48 PM)

I think the Angels will get Rodriguez re-signed.

Nick (Mission, KS)

Rob - Which Olympic sport is your favorite to watch?

Rob Neyer

  (12:49 PM)

Baseball.

Kosmo (Anytown, USA)

Who wins the NL East and why?

Rob Neyer

  (12:50 PM)

Phillies. I'm finally sold on them, if only because they're obviously healthier than the Mets. On to the Lightning Round ...

Ryan (PIttsburgh)

Rob how good is Jeff Karstens really?

Rob Neyer

  (12:51 PM)

Good enough to win in the National League.

Nick (Mission, KS)

Touche. Which is your favorite Olympic sport that isn't going to be struck from the slate?

Rob Neyer

  (12:51 PM)

Korfball, followed closely by tug-of-war.

Cesare (Jet City, Wa)

Most meddlesome owner is ______?

Rob Neyer

  (12:52 PM)

Angelos or McLane. Many other strong candidates, though.

jason (naperville, il)

Do the Rays win the AL East? Who wins the AL WC?

Rob Neyer

  (12:52 PM)

Rays edged by Red Sox, but take the WC.

phillip (seattle)

Joba Chamberlain pitches again in_______?

Rob Neyer

  (12:53 PM)

late August, but gets shut down in September when Yankees obviously out of the running.

Nate (Madison)

CC, NL Cy Young?

Rob Neyer

  (12:53 PM)

Uh, no. Not close.

Mike (Boston)

What are the chances that Mark Cuban is the next owner of the Cubs?

Rob Neyer

  (12:54 PM)

1 in 5.

Rob Neyer

  (12:56 PM)

Geovany Soto or, if he slumps, Jair Jurrjens.

oz (md)

al mvp?

Rob Neyer

  (12:57 PM)

In the absence of a great candidate on one of the contending teams, don't be surprised if Josh Hamilton or even Francisco Rodriguez sneaks in there. Or Justin Morneau. Right now it's impossible to call.

Tim Lincecum

NL Cy Young?

Rob Neyer

  (12:58 PM)

Webb in a landslide.

Baseball Fan (Detroit)

Rob, ever hear of Carlos Quentin?

Rob Neyer

  (12:59 PM)

Heard of him, momentarily forgot him. Yes, if the White Sox win the Central he's probably the No. 1 candidate.

Casey, LA, CA

Rank for the next 2 years, Billingsley, Lackey, Johan.

Rob Neyer

  (12:59 PM)

Lackey, Santana, Billingsley (who's a distant third).

Chris D (Capital City)

Twins or White Sox?

Rob Neyer

  (1:01 PM)

I'm going with the White Sox because, as I wrote in my blog a few minutes ago, the Twins can't keep hitting with runners in scoring position like they have been. Thanks for all the questions, and I hope to see you again next week. Until then, make mine Marvel.