Chat with Baseball America's Jim Callis
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Baseball America Archives: Chats
Jim Callis (1:59 PM)
I'll be here in a second . . . wrapping up a phone call.
Jim Callis (2:19 PM)
OK, sorry about that. I will make it up to you, I promise!
Adam - Chicago
Who moves positions at the end of the day when Gordon, Moustokas and Hosmer are all in KC?
Jim Callis (2:19 PM)
I think Gordon sticks at 3B, Moustakas moves to the OF and Hosmer could play the OF or 1B, depending on whether Butler is at 1B or DH.
Rick (Boston)
Hi Jim,Have you heard any rumblings about who the PTBNLs are in the Dunn deal?
Jim Callis (2:20 PM)
Just the same thing you've probably heard, that one is Micah Owings. I've heard the other player is a 40-man roster guy not in the majors. I don't think it will be anyone like Max Scherzer or Jarrod Parker.
Eric (Albany)
Only 3 of the Top 10 picks have signed....of the 7 left how many don't reach an agreement?
Jim Callis (2:23 PM)
I did an Ask BA on this that you can check out at baseballamerica.com, too. I think of the 11 unsigned first-rounders, 10 eventually will sign. Allan Dykstra's hip condition worries the Padres, so that deal might not get done. As for the rest of the guys, we're in the rhetoric stage where the clubs say they have to be financially realistic and the players say they really will consider going back to school. Don't buy it, I think they'll all sign. Of the guys besides Dykstra, the two who have the most leverage are the two high schoolers, Eric Hosmer (No. 3, Royals) and Gerrit Cole (No. 28, Yankees). Both are advised by the Scott Boras Corp., and I think it's just the typical Boras approach right now. If the team won't meet your figure, take them to the deadline. Won't be shocked if either goes to college, but I think they will sign.
Ross (CA)
How far has Bumgarner risen in your book this year? Do you fear his overpowering fastball is inflating his statistics at Low A?
Jim Callis (2:24 PM)
He has risen a lot. Always liked the arm but his polish this year has surprised me -- I thought he was more raw. His stats are legit and so is his stuff.
Scott (Boston)
What about Boston's tough signs- Hissey, Westmoreland, Meyer?
Jim Callis (2:26 PM)
My guess is that Pete Hissey (fourth round) and Ryan Westmoreland (fifth round), both athletic high school outfielders, sign seven-figure deals. Alex Meyer would have been a first-round pick if teams thought he wanted to sign. I don't think money is as much an issue as is Meyer and his family's desire that he attends Kentucky. My educated guess is that he won't sign. If he does, I think it will be for around $2 million.
Ian Aurora Ohio
Why isn't Brad Ziegler of the A's getting any credit for his 38 innings of scoreless ball to start his career? He's shattered a record that stood for over 100 years.
Jim Callis (2:26 PM)
He's getting lots of credit, there are lots of Ziegler stories out there. Good for Brad -- couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Will he ever give up a run?
Adam (Chicago, IL)
Confidence level (1-10) that Pittsburgh will sign Alverez.
Jim Callis (2:28 PM)
9.5. Alvarez will lose a lot of leverage and potential dollars if he doesn't sign now, and the Pirates can't get an Alvarez with the No. 3 pick in next year's draft. And if they get that pick as compensation for not signing Alvarez, it's not protected by future compensation -- meaning they'd have to cut a predraft deal or be at the mercy of the player (and his agent) whom they pick.
Jason (Pittsburgh)
Hey Jim! What are your thoughts on the return Neal Huntington brought to the Pirates for Bay and Nady. As each day passes, the deals seem to get just a little better with Jeff Karstens' early success and Tabata and Morris doing well in the minors. Also, will Pedro Alverez be a Pirate this time next week??? Thanks.
Jim Callis (2:29 PM)
I think he did fine. Not a Bartolo Colon-type heist, but brought in some solid contributors. Interestingly, scouts really aren't blown away by Andy LaRoche these days. The highest ceiling of all those guys might belong to Bryan Morris. And if Jose Tabata gets back on track -- and he's still quite young -- the Pirates' return will look even better.
Scott (Boston)
Lars Anderson is tearing up AA at age 20 (OPS hovering near 1.0 right now). Is he a top-10 prospect now- not just for the Sox, but for all of baseball?
Jim Callis (2:30 PM)
That might be a tad high . . . I don't have a constantly updating Top 100 list in my head . . . I see Lars more in the 11-25 range. And you guys know I love him as much as anyone does. He can really hit, obviously, his approach is very good and the power is going to come.
Ross (CA)
Do players that sign at the deadline get in for any late season at bats? Maybe some short season?
Jim Callis (2:32 PM)
In the past, late signees often would sign a contract starting with the next year so they wouldn't waste a year in which they wouldn't have to be protected on the 40-man roster. That rule changed last year, so all the late signees this year will sign 2008 contracts. Some of them will get a handful of at-bats or innings before the minor league season ends in early September.
Mark (Bangor, PA)
The Indians have a pitcher named Huff in Buffalo. He topped out at 88 on the stadium gun, do you think he tops out as a 4 in the majors?
Jim Callis (2:33 PM)
I also wrote about David Huff in the last Ask BA. He could be a No. 3 because his fastball really plays up thanks to his command and life on the pitch, and especially because he has an outstanding changeup.
Jason (Salem)
Who's the better hitting prospect: Smoak or Hosmer?
Jim Callis (2:33 PM)
Hosmer. But I like both of them a lot.
Max (Florida)
Jim, do you have any clue who the player to be named might be in the Byrd trade?
Jim Callis (2:34 PM)
All I've heard is that it will be a fringy prospect at best and possibly just a minor cash deal. The Indians just wanted to save money on the remainder of Byrd's 2008 salary.
George (NY)
Do you expect there will be any surprising no-signs Friday?
Jim Callis (2:37 PM)
If I expect them, they wouldn't be a surprise, would they? In terms of players I don't think will sign from early rounds, Allan Dykstra (Padres) is the biggest threat in the first round and Scott Bittle (Yankees) is the biggest threat in the second round. I don't think the Astros will sign Chase Davidson in the third round, and I don't think the Angels will land Zach Cone in the supplemental third round.
Dennis (Santa Clarita, CA)
With all of the supposed money problems of the Dodgers, are they having any trouble signing their picks?
Jim Callis (2:38 PM)
No. They've wrapped up 14 of their top 15 picks. Not sure they'll add any late over-slot guys, but any financial woes they're having have not affected their draft.
Scott (Albany NY)
W/ Davidson is it because Drayton won't go that far over slot or because Davidson wants to go to college?
Jim Callis (2:39 PM)
The Astros have gone over slot for guys this year, so that's not the issue.
Benjamin: Lawerence, KS
Another Royals question please!! Are you a believer in Kila Kaaihue and do you see him as an major league average 1B?ps-Do the Royals sign Melville?
Jim Callis (2:40 PM)
Not the biggest believer in Kaaihue -- I don't see him as a starter on a good club. I do think the Royals will sign Melville to a seven-figure deal. That's been an open secret for weeks.
Jimmy (Chesapeake, VA)
I enjoyed the Ask BA article on signings. What's the latest on whether Brett Hunter, Oakland's #7 pick, will sign? Is he worth his bonus demands?
Jim Callis (2:41 PM)
Hunter could have been a top-10 pick had he not gotten hurt early in the season. His velocity was not at its best witih Team USA this summer, so I'm not sure his perception of his value and the A's perception will match up.
Tim (Northboro, MA)
How good is Pat Venditte, the switch-pitcher in the Yankees' farm system? I know he has a 1.19 era for Staten Island, but what is his ceiling?
Jim Callis (2:42 PM)
He's a great story and competitor, but his stuff is so-so from the right side and fringy from the left. He's a middle-innings reliever at best, but he's fun to root for. Hey, no one saw Brad Ziegler coming either.
Ross (CA)
Do you think it would be wise for the Giants to trade Cain in the offseason for a Bedardlike haul?
Jim Callis (2:43 PM)
It would have to be a good haul. No one should be untouchable, but Matt Cain is a pretty valuable piece. And I don't think trading him for a good haul is going to make the Giants contenders all by itself, either.
Craig (DC)
People! Ask BA is on the Baseball America site and it is free to see. Give it a read on Mondays to save us all some time. A question about next year, with all the hype surrounding Strasburg, do you think many teams will shy away from him because of dollars? The Nats have the inside track and I don't see them spending huge dollars on him
Jim Callis (2:44 PM)
Why not? The Nationals went over slot on several guys in the last two years, including $1.8 million for Jack McGeary in the sixth round last year. The top college pitchers usually get big league contracts, and I'm sure Strasburg will be the same. I don't think his price tag would scare the Nats off if he's their guy.
Brent (Dallas, TX)
John Kruk just agreed to race Nate Newton and Michael Irvin on Irvins ESPN Radio show in Dallas. The race is 50 meters. Who do you think will win?
Jim Callis (2:44 PM)
Irvin, right?
Zack (Maryland)
Jake Arrieta is in the majors in _____
Jim Callis (2:45 PM)
the second half of 2009. Fine over-slot signing by the Orioles.
Benjamin: Lawerence, KS
Is fringy or so-so better?
Jim Callis (2:45 PM)
I give the edge to so-so.
Ross (CA)
Thanks Jim, as usual, I owe you.
Jim Callis (2:45 PM)
Time for you to start paying then.
Ben (Omaha, NE)
Word is, Jordan Danks is wanting 2nd round money as a 7th round pick. Do the White Sox get him signed and for how much?
Jim Callis (2:46 PM)
I do think he'll sign, somewhere around $500,000 or $600,000.
Kelsey(Groves, Tx)
How good is Chris Johnson in the Astros organization?
Jim Callis (2:47 PM)
He was their best position prospect before first-round pick Jason Castro signed. Johnson is solid, good hitter with some pop and the arm to play third base.
Matt (Brookline, MA)
Since the Red Sox are almost assuredly going over slot with atleast two players later in the draft, why would the Yankees decide now is the time to become frugal and not sign their 2nd round pick?
Jim Callis (2:50 PM)
The Yankees aren't being frugal. They went over slot on their sixth-, seventh-, ninth- and 10th-round picks, spending $1.95 million total (more than three times MLB's recommendation of $600,000 max). They'll go way over slot for first-rounder Gerrit Cole, and over slot for sandwich-rounder Jeremy Bleich. With second-rounder Scott Bittle, there's some concern over the state of his shoulder that's holding things up.
Jim Callis (2:50 PM)
And Bittle still could sign, he's just the top candidate in the second round not to.
Jim (Iowa)
Since you list Bittle as the only 2nd round non-signee, it sounds like you think Scheppers will sign. Was there any word on how he threw the other day?
Jim Callis (2:52 PM)
I saw a report that he wasn't in top form, which was to be expected, but the Pirates weren't pinning everything on the workout. The reason I suspect he'll sign is that the Pirates knew he wouldn't be 100 percent by the deadline, yet took him in the second round. I think they'll work something out.
Andy - Niagra Falls
I'm intrigued by your comments re: Pedro Alvarez and the No. 3 pick next year. Is the draft that strong next year or is Pedro that good a prospect? Who are the top 3 prospects next year anyway?
Jim Callis (2:53 PM)
Pedro is that good a prospect, and the Pirates would have very little leverage next year, too. There's more pitching than hitting right now for 2009, with San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg, Missouri's Kyle Gibson and North Carolina's Alex White leading the way.
Erik (Chicago via Nebraska)
Fill in the blank: Chris Getz and Alexei Ramierez will be the White Sox starting middle infield in 20__.
Jim Callis (2:54 PM)
Maybe 2009, but the middle infield of the future for the White Sox will be Gordon Beckham and Ramirez.
Danny(Philly)
Jim I've asked a 100 Michael Stutes Questions. You owe it to him(the way he's been pitching) to answer one of them. How good is he? Is this a flash or does he have legit stuff?
Jim Callis (2:56 PM)
He has solid stuff but isn't as overpowering as his 0.85 ERA might suggest.
James (San Diego)
Will Allan Dykstra sign? How much are they apart? How about Mooneyham and Kipnis? Thanks Jimmy
Jim Callis (2:57 PM)
I'm pessimistic on Dykstra. I think James Darnell will sign in the second round, but I don't think Jason Kipnis or Brett Mooneyham will sign. I heard they've made a nice run at Mooneyham, who fell to the 14th round because of signability, but it may not be enough.
Poochie (Berkeley)
Posey and Gillaspie. Starters in San Francisco by 2010?
Jim Callis (2:57 PM)
Late 2010 or early 2011.
John (NJ)
Question about Draft Prospects. How come it seems like every year the recent draft picks usually start out in teams top 10's higher than the pick the year before. I saw in a recent chat that you Would rate Hosmer Higher than Moustakas in the Royal's top 10. Seems like it is out of sight out of mind thinking.
Jim Callis (3:03 PM)
I might have to change that with the way Moustakas has really come on, too. I do think the newer draft picks benefit a little in that they haven't gotten a chance to struggle like the more experienced guys, but there's no bias at work. We are ranking players based on their long term futures. Hosmer vs. Moustakas is a tossup. I wonder whom Scott Boras would pick.
Jim Callis (3:03 PM)
Are you ready for some lightning round? I'm ready for some lightning round.
Steve (Boston)
Can Lentz or Hunter Jones help in Boston this year?
Jim Callis (3:04 PM)
Maybe Hunter Jones, as an additional lefty in the bullpen.
Victor (NYC)
Better hitter in the Yankee system: Austin Jackson or Jesus Montero?
Jim Callis (3:04 PM)
Montero.
Jeff (Ohio)
LaPorta or Weglarz? Is Carlos Santana the next Victor Martinez (hitting wise)?
Jim Callis (3:05 PM)
LaPorta. Santana may just be that good.
Lory (Bangladesh)
Does Kyle Lobstein sign?
Jim Callis (3:05 PM)
Yes.
Brandon (Mid-MO)
Johnny Giovotella. Too early to tell? Solid major leaguer? All Star? Good enough for the Royals?
Jim Callis (3:06 PM)
Too early. But if I have to guess, he can really hit, so I'll say solid major leaguer.
Zach (NY)
Wilmer Flores or Elvis Andrus?
Jim Callis (3:06 PM)
Andrus.
guinness
Daniel Murphy, real deal or extremely lucky?
Jim Callis (3:06 PM)
Still early, but closer to real deal.
David (Cambridge)
Hosmer vs. Moustakas, Boras would pick Hosmer because he hasn't signed and therefore given a commission to Boras
Jim Callis (3:06 PM)
Ha.
Ross (CA)
Fastest 2008 signee to the Majors?
Jim Callis (3:07 PM)
Brian Matusz, who hasn't signed just yet.
sally - chicago
Aaron Poerda - the 2008 version of Bobby Jenks in'05?
Jim Callis (3:09 PM)
I'm not buying that one, though I read that story in this morning's Chicago Tribune.
Keith (Akron, Ohio)
Lot of Strasburg questions so far. Let me ask you a different one: Given the choice, would you rather have him, a college guy with something of a track record here; Inoa, a young prospect with huge upside; or Yu Darvish, the Japanese kid who some say is the best pitcher not in the majors (though Japanese pitchers, on par, have been a little disappointing once they come here)?
Jim Callis (3:10 PM)
I'd take Strasburg over Inoa because he also has a huge upside and a lot longer track record, and over Darvish because while they're close, the cost would not be.
Danny(Philly)
Carrasco or Drabek?
Jim Callis (3:10 PM)
Carrasco.
Adam (Columbus, OH)
I'd be willing to wager that Michael Irvin CARRYING Nate Newton still beats John Kruk.
Jim Callis (3:10 PM)
Could even the world's strongest man carry Nate Newton, though? I'd bet on Kruk over the weighted-down Irvin in that scenario.
Kevin (Philly)
Is Conor Jackson >, <, or = to Sean Casey in his prime?
Jim Callis (3:11 PM)
I still think he'll be better than that.
Bill (GA)
Tommy Hanson or Carrasco?
Jim Callis (3:11 PM)
Hanson.
David Price's Clone
When do I get my cup of coffee, and in what capacity, starter or reliever?
Jim Callis (3:11 PM)
In the next couple of weeks, not sure on the role. Might be easier to break him in as a reliever, how the rotation holds up will determine the answer.
Fred (Atlanta)
Hanson or Bumgarner?
Jim Callis (3:12 PM)
Bumgarner.
Kyle (Fort Lauderdale)
Lars Anderson or Logan Morrison? I know you are a Lars guy, but is it close?
Jim Callis (3:13 PM)
Anderson. But it's not a blowout, Morrison is a very good prospect in his own right.
Andy (waltham, MA)
Chin Lung Hu....Starter or utility man?
Jim Callis (3:14 PM)
Too early to give up on him as a starter.
lucious
Favre or Aaron Rodgers?
Jim Callis (3:14 PM)
Favre.
Andy (Waltham, MA)
Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown?
Jim Callis (3:14 PM)
Brown.
Dan (Chicago)
Where do you rate Chris Tillman?
Jim Callis (3:14 PM)
Highly. Possible No. 2 starter.
Troy, Boston
The real Ellsbury? First half stud or second half bomb? Which?
Jim Callis (3:15 PM)
Closer to the first half than the second half. Just needs to make some adjustments to handle the inside pitch, and he should be able to.
Dylan (Chapel Hill)
Jim, Ryan Dent and Will Middlebrooks are both off to rough starts in the pro careers. Is it too soon to be down on them?
Jim Callis (3:15 PM)
Yes, too early.
Luke (Canada)
Harden or Sheets?
Jim Callis (3:16 PM)
Sheets, better chance to stay healthy.
Jamie (DC)
Highest upside and best bet: Hughes, Brackman, Cole
Jim Callis (3:17 PM)
Upside: Cole. Best Bet: Hughes.
Andrew (Durham)
2006 Price or 2008 Strasburg?
Jim Callis (3:17 PM)
Price.
Steve (El Paso)
Michael Bowden. What's his ceiling?
Jim Callis (3:18 PM)
Good No. 3 starter.
Fred (Dtown)
Will Smoak unseat Chris Davis or be trade bait next year?
Jim Callis (3:19 PM)
Won't be an issue for a couple of years and the Rangers will find room for both.
Grant (MPLS, MN)
Twins starting CF in new ballpark in 2010 Ben Revere, Carlos Gomez, or Denard Span?
Jim Callis (3:20 PM)
Opening Day 2010 will be Gomez. But I like Revere the most of those three guys.
Erik (Chicago via Nebraska)
In 2009 and beyond we will see: 2008 Carlos Quentin or 2005-2007 Carlos Quentin?
Jim Callis (3:21 PM)
2008 version. He's for real.
Jim Callis (3:21 PM)
That's it for this week. Next week we can discuss who did and didn't sign.
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