Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:01 PM)

Good afternoon everyone! Busy time of year, draft season, filled with lots of questions ... let's get right to yours!

Mike (Nashville)

Will you please tell S-Jaxxx to report to camp? This is ridiculous...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:01 PM)

I hear you, Mike. As a guy who fully believes in a bounce-back season for Steven Jackson, I'd like to see this come to resolution soon. Let's say in about one week, it's panic-button time. Today? Not worried.

Frank (Worcester)

Still not concerned about SJax's holdout? Is he worth the 5th pick with Addai and Westy already off the board?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:02 PM)

No and yes. But I admit we're getting awfully close. Just a point that's important to make right now. Love the player, but more than another week holding out and I do think it affects his season.

Jake (VA Beach)

What is your opinion on pick for player trading before the draft in a keeper league. I think it's great and rewards well built teams from previous years while helping strugglers.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:04 PM)

I really think it depends on the players, the pick and the rosters. That's not a one-answer-suits-all kind of question. Here's an example for you: I needed a No. 1 running back for my keeper-league team, we keep eight players a team and my depth was OK already going in. So I dealt a third-round pick for Marion Barber. The other guy couldn't afford Barber (it's salary-cap based), so he got an extra pick to build depth, and I got Barber on the cheap even if it meant being a pick short. Those are all things you need to weigh, and I think it demonstrates I'm a fan of the idea. Just make sure your owners all understand the repercussions, that's all.

Jim, South Bend, IN

I have the 6th pick in my fantasy draft. IF LT, AP, SJax, Westbrook and Brady are gone, who's next?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:04 PM)

I think it's Joseph Addai.

codeman

Is D-Mac good enough to pick in first round?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:05 PM)

Only if it's a keeper league. Otherwise, while yes, the ADP comparisons aren't totally off base, you'd be drafting at the player's statistical ceiling in terms of 2008 value. Bad idea.

Chris (NY,NY)

Looking at scoring leaders from last year it is appearing that the scoring leaders are mostly QB's and WR's. Are we getting to the point now where it isn't a given to draft RB,RB in the first two rounds? If you had the tenth pick in a 12 team league, who would you be looking at?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:06 PM)

Well, Chris, I agree that it's no longer imperative that you go running back/running back (and sometimes even a third running back), you have to consider value compared to replacement level. For instance, just because quarterbacks as a whole score more points than running backs might not mean you should pick 12 before 20 running backs go. I usually suggest projecting the numbers, find what the 12th-best QB's (that'd be the final starter in a 12-team league) are and then compare the guys ahead of that to the baseline number.

Ryan (PA)

Tristan, help me out here. I have the #2 pick tonight in a .5 ppr league. You taking BWB or AP? Is the .5 ppr big enough to take BWB #2?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:07 PM)

I'd say that makes it worthwhile enough to go Brian Westbrook. Otherwise, I'm ADP all the way.

Evan (Portland)

Hey Tristan. If I get 3 RBs and a QB in the first 4 rounds, and then try to build WRs, do you like my chances?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:08 PM)

Not really because my feeling is there are the elite receivers, about 12-to-maybe-15 of them, and then it's increasingly a crapshoot the further you get down the board. So, I would recommend that you get a top receiver if you can, because most every other team in your league is probably going to get one. I'd take one over your third running back or the quarterback (depending on which one it is), probably.

Nick (Cleveland)

Daniels was dropped and I'm trying to decide if I should pick him up and drop Scheffler? PPR league by the way.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:09 PM)

I love Owen Daniels in a point-per-reception league. I know it might sound crazy, but yes, I would make that move. He'll get you catches each week, and I like that kind of consistency in points. Just watch, Daniels will surprise in that format.

Bernard (Princeton, NJ)

How nervous should I be with Marc Bulger as my projected #1 QB?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:09 PM)

Very. He's nicked up already and if his O-line is anywhere near as snake-bitten as it was in 2007, he's going to be in trouble. I'd make sure I had a solid backup.

SprungOnSports (Long Island)

What value do you see the Niners receivers having given their QB situation?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:11 PM)

Matchups value. Bryant Johnson could be a value pick, I admit, because he goes so late relative to other receivers. But I have a feeling once we get in-season, the times you'll want to use those Niners are when they're facing soft secondaries.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Mr. Cockroft: In an autodraft league I ended up with Rudi Johnson. Warrick Dunn is sitting out there as an undrafted FA. Should I keep Rudi or drop him in favor of Dunn?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:11 PM)

Keep Rudi Johnson, because at least he has a shot, in the best-case scenario, of becoming the starter for his team. His statistical ceiling is simply higher. I look at Warrick Dunn and think "insurance policy," no more. That has little value in fantasy.

Chris (New Hampshire)

With Brett Favre now in New York, is Jerricho Cotchery worthy of being a #2 receiver in a 16 team PPR league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:12 PM)

Certainly. I think both Jets receivers benefit a great deal from the trade, but I'm a big Cotchery fan in particular. Solid talent.

Tod (Sedona, Az)

Tristan which Detroit WR do you like most, Johnson or Williams?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:13 PM)

"Like" most? Probably Calvin Johnson, because I see such breakout potential in him, and he has looked solid this spring. Which one has the better fantasy season? Probably Roy Williams by a little bit, but the point here is I prefer Johnson as the draft value because he'll go several slots later, but might actually rival the veteran's production. He'll surprise you!

James (Palo Alto, CA)

An idiot in my fantasy league is trying to argue that the majority of position players peak in their early thirties. When is the actual age range - 25-27?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:15 PM)

James, there's no true answer to that. I've done age studies for several seasons and find that running backs tend to peak in your age range, quarterbacks are all over the map, sometimes in the range your friend said, and receivers can peak anywhere from as young as 25 to as old as 32. And this doesn't apply to every player, some guys buck the historical trends (Joey Galloway is one!). Only things the age studies tell you for sure is running backs do tend to hit a wall as they hit 30 years old, and receivers have a very hard time being productive after hitting 35.

John (Idiot in James's league)

Hasselbeck or Bulger?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:16 PM)

Ha! But you're not asking a question related to John's? Interesting ... I take Matt Hasselbeck. Bobby Engram's injury or not, I still see more reliability in the Seahawk. Marc Bulger is just so boom or bust.

Joel (MI)

Better keeper as of today.... SJax or Romo ?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:17 PM)

I will always keep the running back if he's a potential first-round talent. Always.

Mikey (NYC)

What are you differences in draft philosophies if passing TDs are worth 6pts? Do you guys have any articles on the website about such a scoring system?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:19 PM)

We've got a lot of pieces in there, Mikey, but to be honest, I can't recall one because the truth is that it doesn't really change the rankings all that much, other than maybe bumping the entire position (every player) up a couple overall spots, that's it. Remember what I said earlier about a player's value compared to replacement level; if you make touchdowns six points instead of four, well, every quarterback gets that bump up. So the comparisons to replacement level really don't change at all, in which case I don't really alter my rankings much.

Mark (Akron)

Hi Tristan, 2QB/6pts. for all TD's League...your on the clock...Drafting 8 and 13...Manning or Romo or Brees and then Portis or Lynch or Barber or Grant?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:20 PM)

Well, Mark, I play in a league with this very scoring system that drafts this week, and I'll tell you this, if Peyton Manning is out there with the No. 8 pick, I am taking him. No doubt about it. And then on the way back, I'd probably nab Marshawn Lynch.

Anthony (NYC)

LJ, MJD or B-Jake

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:21 PM)

It's still Larry Johnson, because bad O-line or not, he's got that explosive, home-run hitter potential that the other two can't quite rival. Eventually there comes a point where no matter how bad his situation, you must take the guy with the most explosive raw potential. This is a perfect example.

Joel (MI)

You would keep Jackson despite the threat of him sitting out half the year ? Can I take a gamble like that and lose top 3 QB ?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:22 PM)

The one thing that I can offer prospective Steven Jackson owners as encouragement is that he's going to be due a huge payday next offseason if he comes back and has the explosive 2008 I think he's capable of. Why he'd want to sit out half a season and risk that I could not understand. I think he'll be back in time for Week 1. Gut instinct, I admit, but I feel pretty strongly about it.

Rebecca (St. Louis)

I have Bills and Colts D/ST. Who is better in your opinion?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:23 PM)

Colts. I know the Bills -- well, their coach -- get the most out of their personnel, but I see them as a matchups consideration and little more. Better defensive parts, talent-wise, on Indy.

Nick (Cleveland)

You missed Mikey's real question. He wasn't asking about QB rankings being bumped up he was asking about the entire field in general being bumped up. Manning is a sure first rounder in a 6pt league.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:24 PM)

I didn't miss it, I said the entire position gets a slight bump. And besides, the reason I picked this follow-up is that I think Peyton Manning can almost make a case for late first-round status in a four-point TD league! I probably wouldn't take him that soon but I wouldn't laugh at an owner who did it. He's around that level either way.

Ken (Anderson, SC)

Is Carson Palmer a bust this season (i.e. continuing his downward trend of last season, all the WR ?'s, and running game issues) or does he bounce back?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:25 PM)

I'm not impressed by the personnel surrounding him, frankly. Chad Johnson is nicked up, the running game is a mess right now. There's more downside than people are giving Carson Palmer credit.

Jimmy (Lubbock)

Could you please offer some general tips on how one should approach PPR leagues differently than one would ordinary scoring? Also, if one is using ESPN's PPR list, and others are usuing regular lists, would it be a mistake to take 3 WRs in a 2 WR, one flex, league in the first four rounds? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:27 PM)

Well, Jimmy, you have got to forecast the 2008 numbers, and determine which running backs catch passes and which do not. Cases in point: Brian Westbrook, does. Adrian Peterson, for the most part, does not. That makes a significant difference. Remember, 70 catches for a running back compared to 30 is a whopping 40 points. That's a lot, can often mean as much as a round's difference in value. Plus, you bump up the entire crop of receivers, or, at least, the No. 1 targets on their teams. So Greg Jennings' value might not change, but Derrick Mason's sure would. I usually go receivers about five spots higher apiece on average in PPR formats.

Joe (DC)

In a large league that starts 4 wideouts, how concerned should I be if Donald Driver and Marvin Harrison are my top 2?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:28 PM)

Well, Driver's fine, or at least a serviceable enough No. 2, but I'm not a Harrison fan. I know he's had a great preseason, looks healthy, has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball, but Anthony Gonzalez is there to steal a couple targets from him, and I can't imagine he's out there for 16 stellar games. I'm having a very hard time pushing him higher than, say, No. 20 among receivers in my rankings, and that's No. 2 status at best. You need some depth.

Mike (Nashville)

Does Plax get a bump in value thanks to Jeremy Shockey's departure since he is now the lone proven target in Eli Manning's arsenal?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:30 PM)

I actually think his chronic ankle problems negate any gain he experiences from Shockey's departure. But that still keeps him pretty good back-end No. 1 receiver, or elite No. 2, status. I actually think Steve Smith is the interesting low-level sleeper there as a result of the Shockey deal.

Lonesome Dave, (Foghat, NJ)

Is it me, or does it seem that just about ALL THE TOP PLAYERS has at least some little cloud/question hanging over them this year (i.e. Manning's surgery, LT's age, S-Jax holdout, Marvin's knee, etc...)???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:31 PM)

I could tell you that about each of the past few seasons, too. That's the fun of this game. For every positive I can give you on a player, I probably could dig you up a negative. That's why it's up to you to pick and choose the points you like and agree with. This would not be fun otherwise!

Josh (philly)

Which rookie RB sleeper should I stash on my bench: Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, or Steve Slaton?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:31 PM)

Big Chris Johnson fan right here. Best chance at a breakthrough of those three.

James (MIddletown, NJ)

Burleson in Seattle has to get plenty of receptions now basically because he's the last man standing. His value is up right?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:32 PM)

Sure it is but I'd be cautious. Matt Hasselbeck's best chemistry last year was with Bobby Engram. With Burleson, it seemed hit-or-miss. So there's a real chance he'll be overvalued, though as a No. 3/4, sure, he's worth a look.

jeff - rochester, ny

Your thoughts on waiting to draft a QB and maybe ending up with the likes of Schaub, Cutler, Rivers, Delhomme etc. & going with a 2-3 QB "platoon" system?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:33 PM)

I do that so often, Jeff. Just the way I play. Can't tell you how many leagues I've nabbed guys like Eli Manning, Matt Schaub, even Jason Campbell. Those have been my boys in potential matchup-play platoons.

Jim Saginaw, MI

What do you expect from John Kitna this year? I think Calvin Johnson will be huge.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:34 PM)

Well, he's having a great preseason so far, but I admit I am not a fan. Kitna can make so many mistakes when he's off. I agree on Johnson, but I think more of the receivers themselves than their quarterback. Kitna's matchups-worthy at best, and I think he needs to be deemed a clear fantasy No. 2, no more.

Rob (Frankfort, IL)

I have the 10th pick in a snake draft tonight...Who should I target with the 10th pick???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:36 PM)

Well, I think either a Marshawn Lynch or Marion Barber might fall to you at No. 10, and I'd take them in that order. I do think Ryan Grant is pretty close to that status, too. I'm a believer.

Chris Johnson (nash vegas)

You taking me over DeAngelo, Bradshaw, Watson or Julius Jones in a keeper league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:37 PM)

In a keeper league? Oh, absolutely.

Joe (San Diego)

Dude, help, I'm begging you. Drive 7-plus hours to a wedding, or stay back for my fantasy draft. Getting mixed signals from the wife, but I hate autodraft. What Would Tristan Do?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:39 PM)

I'd butter up the commish to bump the draft back in order to allow you to draft live. I don't like autodraft one bit. No way. I'd almost rather find a trusted friend to do it if I were in that desperate a circumstance. But then I like to butter up the commish. Good to be friends with that guy (or gal)!

Larry (Pasco, WA)

I'm in a 16 team tradition scoring league. What should be my draft strategy for this weekend?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:40 PM)

When you say "scoring league" I have to assume you mean TD-only? If so, I tend to alter my strategy to pick based on team performance almost more than I do individual. So the guys on the strongest teams actually become my preferred picks in most situations. Good teams score the most points!

Bill (Eugene, OR)

Who is the better Fantasy RB in Carolina this year? The rookie Stewart or the vet DeAngelo?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:40 PM)

I really have a feeling it's the veteran, DeAngelo Williams. Isn't it amazing that he fits the description of "veteran" these days? John Fox loves "his guys." Bottom line.

jeff - rochester, ny

Mind ranking these "platoon" QB's? Schaub, Rivers, Garrard, Campbell, Delhomme

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:41 PM)

I've got 'em David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Jason Campbell, Jake Delhomme.

Vinny (nyc)

Thoughts on J.Lewis verus M.Turner? Is either a reliable #2 RB? What about in a keeper league versus re-draft?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:42 PM)

I actually wouldn't change my stance much on either if it's keeper or yearly. Both should provide at least another year or two of production, and while I bet Michael Turner has better long-term appeal, well, his 2008 ceiling is lower. I wanna win now! So I'm going Lewis. Yes, he's a reliable No. 2.

Bobby A (NYC)

Please help! Keepers due today! Brandon Marshall or Calvin Johnson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:43 PM)

Well, I don't know how long you can keep these guys, but I hear "keeper" and think Johnson. Good dynasty WR.

Doug (SD)

Which of these RBs would you take Randy Moss before: Gore, Lynch, Portis, Barber, none of the above?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:45 PM)

What's interesting, Doug, is you nailed my running back rankings spot on. Good job! Now, the next point is I pretty much never, ever, pick receivers in the first round. I just don't do it. I'm happy enough to get a No. 1 receiver in the second or third round. Never upset with what I get. In terms of overall, broad rankings appeal, I put Randy Moss in the middle, because in PPR leagues, he makes an absolute case to go there. Remember, I don't always draft spot on to my rankings.

Mark, Baltimore

Is Joe Flacco worth the #1 pick in every league imaginable? My gut says he is.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:45 PM)

Uh...

Jason, Charlotte

What is Kevin Walters value this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:46 PM)

Potentially underrated matchups/steaks play. I think that Texans passing game could really surprise you, so long as the running game isn't a complete mess.

Marc (Malden, MA)

Will Chris Perry end up being the starter in Cincy?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:47 PM)

Well, the Bengals are certainly using him that way, but I think all that says is that this is a virtual lock to be one of the many running back-by-committee teams. Bump 'em all down in value.

Matt,MPLS

Can you sort out the RB situation in Tampa for me?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:47 PM)

Earnest Graham's job. I'd be surprised if it weren't.

Joe (Hamilton, NJ)

What are your thoughts on Thomas Jones? I, for one, believe that the Jets are going to be pretty tough this year. His TD totals increase from last year and he could be 1,300, 8 TD's...no?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:48 PM)

I agree that he's shaping up as a decent draft-day value. While his advancing age concerns me just a little bit, I do see a lot of upside in Jones for a guy at his stage of his career. I prefer to make him my No. 3 RB if I pick him, but I won't be afraid to do so if he hangs around long enough.

phil (edison, nj)

to joe from san diego: definately stay back for the draft. its not even close. and tristan, in a ppr league with return yards counted, is devin hester a solid #2?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:50 PM)

Hester's value gets a bump up if you count his return yardage (TDs help, but it doesn't significantly boost his value as much as yards do). I don't know that I'd say "solid" No. 2, but I did take him in a similar league lately, and I think it was as my No. 3 receiver. In other words, he'll be in my lineup in that league most of the time, and I think he should be in a lineup in that format most of the time.

Mike (Albany, NY)

Has Willis McGahee's knee issue made you reconsider your ranking of him? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:51 PM)

Yes, because I don't believe in that O-line being able to keep him healthy even after he returns from the knee problem. Taking repeated hits is going to put him at more risk than you think. To me, he's mid-second round value at best. Maybe end-of-second.

Steve (MA via East Hartford)

Joe, Get an iPhone and do both.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:51 PM)

Man, I gotta get me one of those...

Matt,MPLS

If Graham is the starter, is he really only the 45th pick, as the ESPN top 200 has him? Seems like a starting RB who had his stats should go higher than that.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:51 PM)

Well, for the record, I think Earnest Graham is underrated. He's in my top 20 running backs.

Jason, Charlotte

What is your guy on Ahman Greens situation?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:53 PM)

I assume you meant "gut," Jason. If so, my gut says that Marcel Shipp's addition is a sign that the Texans are ready to admit they made a mistake signing Green in the first place last season. Rumors beginning to swirl in Houston that he'll be cut, and that wouldn't surprise me. Frankly, I almost prefer what Shaun Alexander could give me off the free-agent list (NFL-wise, this is). So that says Green might warrant being dropped. Steve Slaton, by the way, is becoming a very-late-round sleeper in my eyes.

The Prognosticator

Cam Cameron will turn McGahee or Ray Rice into a top 5 back. Here's why: LT first off. Ronnie Brown pre-injury last season. Miami fired him too soon!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:54 PM)

Different personnel, so I beg to differ. He had more to work with in each of the past two places.

Jerome (NYC)

You worried at all about Brady's multiple injuries on the same leg?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:55 PM)

Tom Brady is a gamer. I can't say I use this to bump him down much, if at all, in my rankings. He's a first-round talent unless officially ruled out for at least one regular-season game. Though, one thing this helps me make the case for is not to go nuts and pick Brady top-three overall. He's a mid-first rounder, that's it, and this should ensure he goes at that fair price.

Joe (San Diego)

Wedding vs Fantasy update... wife just called to say no worries, we're not making the trip. Yeah!!! Now I get to ruin my own draft. At least with autodraft I could've had something to blame.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:56 PM)

That's why I don't like autodrafting, nor do I want any of the owners in my leagues autodrafting ... because I don't want any excuses from losing teams. Fess up, if you lost, you lost.

C

Please settle my current league dispute!im trying to get t.o and willis m for my stephen jackson and joey galloway? fair deal for the other guy?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:57 PM)

I don't think that's an objectionable trade. Not that big on McGahee, while I know he's a second-round talent I don't see a lot of upside in him for this year. So that's a bump up for your counterpart at running back, even if the wide receiver differential is noticeably greater. I think you make out here, but not by enough to overturn.

Seth (South Korea)

Where are you taking Steve Smith? Does his suspension say stay away???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:58 PM)

He effectively has to slip into the mid-to-late third round for me to even think about it, because I have him just outside my top 10 at the position. That said, if he drops that far, I wouldn't mind punting those two games to begin the year. The rest will make up for it.

Marcus (Milwaukee)

T-Jack or J Campbell?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:59 PM)

No interest in Tarvaris, none at all.

Turk, San Diego

Does it matter who is at QB in AZ for Fitz and Boldin?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:59 PM)

I doubt it, but I'd so rather see Kurt Warner the starter, for all three of their sakes. His presence under center led to huge passing totals last season.

Mike Buffalo,NY

Welker or steve Smith?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:00 PM)

Flip a coin, MIke, though I do have Smith ranked one spot higher, personally.

Steve (NY)

Roddy White or Dwayne Bowe?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:00 PM)

I think I'd take White first if it were PPR, Bowe first if it were not.

Buzzer Beater

FWP or E Graham?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:01 PM)

Earnest Graham. Rather have the better touchdown potential.

Tom (Trenton)

B. West or AP at #2?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:01 PM)

ADP. Gut feel, I know.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:01 PM)

Well, that's all for today. Thanks for all your questions, and don't worry, I'll see you all again right here on Wednesday! We'll also be back to chat with you tomorrow, so see you then... Take care!