Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Hello! There are a lot of good questions in queue so I'll get this thing started!
Chris (staten island, NY)
KC, would it be worthwhile for Dallas to bring in Joe Horn as a number 3 wide out or would they be better off using Sam Hurd while Austin Miles, who has had a great camp and preseason, recovers from an MCL sprain?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
I've got two comments on Horn. The first is his YPA last year was 4.7, which is positively abysmal. That would make me say he is not a good fit anywhere but Horn did an interview just before my weekly interview on the Mike Gill Show on ESPN Radio in Atlantic City. Horn said the issue last year was that Atlanta kept moving him around and couldn't figure out what they wanted to do with him. If that was the issue and it wasn't age/health, then Dallas or Philly or someone should give him a try, because Horn on a good day is a lot better than what those teams have at the spots they would be plugging him into.
Broad Street Brian (Philly)
Kevin Curtis is down for at least the first month of the season, I am officially worried about our WR corps. I do not think Boldin is the answer. I know Joe Horn is not. Is there any cavalry coming? Is hope in medical science my best friend now?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
Before you write off the Eagles, remember that for years McNabb had mediocre WRs and they still won a lot of games. In other words, they've been in this situation before and have shown they know how to work around it.
Charger Jeff, Portland, OR
Hey KC - did that Chat Regulars Fantasy League ever get off the ground?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
It's actually in the final stages of taking off. I had nearly 40 requests to join so it will actually end up being 20 leagues (probably 16 per league). I'll be sending out invite emails today or tomorrow.
Standard league...drafting #2...who would you take: AP, Westbrook, Addai, or SJax? Thanks
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
I've got AP as the #2 RB in my draft guide. Westbrook and Addai are #4 and #3 and Jackson is #5.
any love for my beloved Texans?
Ed (Saginaw, MI)
Hi KC, I love your weekly chats. My question is about Texans CB- Fred Bennett. Is he a soon to be "shutdown" corner?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Fred Bennett was a shutdown cornerback last year. In fact, according to the numbers in Scientific Football 2008, he had the lowest YPA of any CB in the league with over 60 attempts.
Some metrics for Boldin if you please?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Boldin is a popular subject today! It seems just about every other question has to do with him. OK, here are some metrics. His YPA against red/yellow rated CBs - 4.9 versus red, 7.1 versus yellow. He did much better against green and non-rated by posting a 15.6 and 10.2 YPA respectively. In other words, he's a dominant player against bad matchups but doesn't do so well against good CBs.
Bob Phoenix Arizona
Do you think we have a need for a cornerback like Sheppard, because Eric Green is suspect and Cromartie is still unproven. Would we send Boldin for Sheppard and picks
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
We're going to have to call you Trader Bob! The only question would be if Boldin would accept the offer Philly would make him. I don't think they would pay him Fitz money because they know his metrics suggest he is a possession receiver and not a matchup buster. Still, the move addresses issues for both teams so it would make a lot of sense.
Will all your football knowledge would a 6 foot 5 Usain Bolt be a succes as a WR? He runs a sub 3.9 40.
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Bolt is dominant but I want to see him catch a football at that speed before I sign off on him!
Greg Houston Texas
Does Andy Reid really think his receivers can get the job done?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Greg, I think he does. Just jog your memory back to around 2003. Philly had terrible receivers, so bad that they replaced both starters the next year if memory serves me correct. That didn't stop the Eagles from having a good season and that's why Reid believes he can work with what he has. He's done it with worse.
Not to make this an Arizona Philly chat, but wouldn't the Cards needs a WR and Lito for Boldin after letting Bryant Johnson go?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
That is the downside but if Boldin is an unhappy camper, they might not have a choice. Another snag would be Cromartie-Rodgers. If he pans out, Philly won't have as much need for Sheppard.
James Trash and Todd Stinkston
Yes, Andy Reid does thik his WR's can get the job done.
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Man, that is cold! Those two helped Andy win games that year so I don't think he'd call them those names.
PT (Franklin, NC)
Who do you think gets more INT's this year Deangelo Hall or Nnamdi Asomougha?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Hall because they aren't going to throw at Asomugha. Hall's YPAs have always been a lot higher and teams will target him accordingly.
For your memory, it was 2000 that they went to the playoffs with Torrence Small and Charles Johnson...then Thrash/Pinkston till Owens in 2004... He's done it before with awful receivers, but don't they at least owe McNabb a second chance with a star receiver?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Thanks for the correction! That's why I put the "if memory serves me correct." I'm also sure they would like to have McNabb team up with another star WR but they aren't going to mortgage the team's future for it.
Lane (Kukuihaele, HI)
Hey, that Trash and Stinkston post was a good one. I wish I had come up with that one.
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Lane, I try to keep it funny and informative!
KING Kevin (Austin, Texas)
On a sad subject, who do you think could fill the enormous shoes left behind by Gene Upshaw? If anyone?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
I have no idea but I will say that his death has been bumming me out all day long. Get diagnosed with cancer and die four days later. I hugged my wife and kids after reading that.
That's a false start against you KC, for referring to a guy from the Texans as a "shutdown" corner.
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Any time a guy posts a sub 5-yard YPA on 66 attempts, I'm going to call him a shutdown CB because that's exactly what he is!
MJ Gill (Boston, MA)
I saw clips on Nnamdi? looks like players got some separation on him, QB's just missed their WRs...I think if they're running game wasn't so bad, and Fabian Washington wasn't so horrible, Nnamdi would have got thrown on alot too, not sure he's so great.
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
I'll give you that Nnamdi's YPA wasn't dominant on the passes that were thrown his way (7.2 I believe). He also wasn't thrown at a lot because teams were running the ball at Oakland all day long.
Steve (Rochester, NY)
I'm curious to hear what you think of Vernon Davis. He hasn't been too impressive to date and now he is in a Mike Martz offense that historically hasn't used TEs much.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
The other issue for Davis is that he too often makes route running errors. Martz is the kind of coach who won't call plays for a WR/TE if they aren't exactly where they are supposed to be all of the time.
Sure seems like a lot of people/fans are pushing for the Sheppard - Boldin trade. Yet my instincts tell me that Sheppard is not an equal trade value. Also, if neither team is willing to negotiate with their current player what reason would fans have to think they would negotiate with the "other" player?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
I'd agree that it isn't an equal value deal. Philly would be getting a younger player who would be filling a bigger need. Arizona would get what might end up being a #3 CB for them and they would have WR issues. Still, given the political situation for these players, I wouldn't rule it out.
How do you think Brett Favre does in New York this season?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
I put him 6th on my QB cheat sheet because I can't see him throwing less than 500 passes. He didn't go to NY to hand the ball off. Cotchery is also a very underrated WR and a healthy Coles is one of the top 20 WRs in the NFL. That's better than what Favre had in GB last year so I'm on the bandwagon of his having a very good season.
Are the Bills still a playoff team if Jason Peters holds out for the rest of the season?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Andy, I don't know if you saw but I have a book in bookstores called Blindsided, Why The Left Tackle Is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts. Teams are competitive all of the time with average left tackle play so yes I do think Buffalo could stay in a playoff hunt without Peters.
Brandon, Chicago, IL
hey KC... I'm just curious to hear your take on the Bears situation. Nobody is high on Rex Grossman, but it's as if Orton hasn't played a lick of good football in his life and comes from Southern California or something. I honestly feel that if he had been left in the starting role after his rookie season, the Bears quarterback problem would have been solved by now... He is taller than Rex and can see the field better, and is therefore long enough to be effective in a screen play which is essential to a running game... What do you think?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Brandon, I think the issue has as much to do with Chicago not believing in Grossman as it does their believing in Orton. Nothing I've seen on tape has convinced me Orton is a good QB but I do caveat that by saying almost all of the tape I've seen was in his first go around.
KC - What player(s) can we expect to see a signifcant increase in sacks for this season?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Try Terrell Suggs. He put up four sacks last year according to my totals and my scouting eye said he hasn't lost a step despite that below average sack showing.
Steve (Rochester, NY)
Based on his numbers is Tony Romo an elite QB?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Yes and no. His YPAs are always very good but his bad decision percentage shot up to nearly 4% last year. He was a 1.8% bad decision QB the year before and he'll need to be closer to that number in order to take on the elite tag long-term.
"Still" a Playoff team?? Buffalo!? KC why are you answering e-mails from 1999??
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
OK, try playoff contender instead!
Michael (Syracuse, NY)
KC, sorry I haven't gotten your books yet, but I plan on it once I get a job...question is, do your YPA and receiver metrics get adjusted for the quality of their opposition? For instance, does a YPA against Reggie Wayne count the same as against Marty Booker? thanks!
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Great question. This year's Scientific Football does have metrics for every WR and CB against varying levels of competition. I segmented the competition into red/yellow/green ratings based on their YPAs and then ran the numbers for every player against every competition type. It made for a very interesting study for many players.
Robbie (Pound Ridge, NY)
Hey KC, What can you tell us about Eddie Royal? He's already cracked the starting lineup in Denver and was very impressive in the preseason game against Dallas. Can he have any fantasy impact given he's a rookie and what kind of number would you expect from him?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
I saw a bit of Royal but let me take a look at a full week 3 preseason matchup. I'll weigh in with a comment next week if you'll send this question along then!
How do Hayden and Jackson rank in your DB tandems? I think both are talented but I'd also call it a "whole being greater than the sum of the parts" thing as well. Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
The Colts CBs are always tough to grade because the system does protect them. Heck, Jason David even posted a 7.8 YPA there one year. I will say that if those two are as good as the Colts say they are (and I believe that is the case), they should take a few more chances with them. They have untapped upside so let them ballhawk a bit more or play a bit more of man coverage at times.
People are falling in love with Santonio Holmes. For good reason?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Double digit YPAs will make people fall in love with a WR. Holmes did it on around 80 attempts last year. If he can do that on 125 attempts this year, he's a Pro Bowl WR.
Add the Giants Hixon to the Eddie Royal to that pre-season look. He looked good, but it was against the Browns, who are the team that should be inquiring about Lito.
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Will do! I also have to say that I don't know if the Browns need to be looking at Lito, but I do know that Travis Daniels wasn't the right answer for them.
What stats do you predict for the Patriots Tom Brady this season? I say 38 TD's, 12 INTs, and 4100 yds passing and 2 rushing TD's!
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
I wouldn't disagree with those totals but I'll tell you this. If Peyton has healthy WRs all year long (i.e. if Harrison is truly back), he'll have the best set of targets he's had since 2004. Anthony Gonzalez is every bit as good as Brandon Stokely, so Peyton could have a 40 TD year. I've still got Brady #1 on my cheat sheet but Peyton is a darn close second and probably a better value pick because you'll be able to pick him up later.
I hear Jabari Greer has had another solid training camp? Do you think he can be a Pro Bowl CB?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
He's got the metric chops but if the Bills move him to nickel, he just won't get enough play to find his way to Hawaii.
Savage has been after Travis Daniels since he was drafted. I don't know why, it might be the same reason I draft Mark Prior every year.
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
Yeah, I have the same blind spot for Lee Evans every year. Daniels had some good games in Miami but overall his YPA was terrible and he played worse as his Dolphins career progressed.
DA did nothing to dissuade we Browns fans who think he looks great against the poor teams and like ken dorsey against good one. Granted, his oline was dominated and he didn't have alot of time; but he wasn't even accurate on slants and swing passes. What is your take on the guy?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
I've said he has a 65/35 chance of doing as well this year as he did last (with 65 being the side of his doing as well). It's only preseason so I wouldn't worry too much but that is a bad start for a team thinking of making a playoff run. Maybe Romeo is just doing the old Parcells/Belichick trick of intentionally calling a bad game so he'd have something to yell at the team about.
Broad Street Brian Philly
I really hope Lane from HI is in your FF league this year. I REALLY HOPE.
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
It would be entertaining to see you two in a fantasy football league. Talk about antipathy!
These Brady Quinn fans are ridiculous. They said the same things about Charlie Frye. If Derek Anderson was from a suburb of Cleveland OR played at Ohio State he would be a god and have a statue.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
I agree on the Quinn part. The Browns coaching staff and management know they probably have one year to prove themselves. If things go south in 2008, they might all be looking for jobs. They know Anderson is capable of playing well at the pro level and they simply don't know that about Quinn. They aren't going to take chances because of that. It's DA or bust this year.
Hey KC, With Bulger already getting beat up, it looks like last year all over again already. How well do you really think Jackson will do with potential passing problems? Also, is Harrison going to rebound if he stays fairly healthy? Are you sending out Defense Cheat Sheets soon??
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
As long as the Rams O line isn't as banged up as it was last year (and they were legendarily banged up last year), Jackson will do a lot better. Don't worry about him just yet. I like Harrison as a value pick if you can get him as a late #2 WR or as a #3. I'll be sending out the Excel charts tonight and will be working on defensive material over the next day or so.
So who is in the #7 spot in your draft guide. I think the first 6 off the board isn't too difficult to figure out, but after that...
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Well, I don't want to give away the entire guide but I can pass this one other nugget along. Gore is #7 in the book.
SprungOnSports (Long Island)
Do you have any data on QB's who start right out of the shoot like Matt Ryan will?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Ryan had high bad decision totals at BC and I see him doing more of the same along that line this year. He'll be a good NFL QB eventually but I wouldn't be surprised to see 20+ interceptions if he starts the entire year.
Can Roddy White have a big year sans an above average QB?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
He did it last year (9.6 YPA) so there is no reason to think he can't do it again.
Did Nick really just compare Quinn to Frye. I must be mistaken, but I don't remember Frye ever being considered a top ten pick. And can he name one game against a quality defense that DA didn't stink.
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
I'll give you that DA had trouble against pretty much every good defense he faced. That's the issue - can he beat the top teams? He has maybe the best WR/TE corps in the NFL, a great O line and a very good RB, so it's not as if he'll have any excuse if he fails.
Brandon (Bellevue, WA)
Seattle, last year DA didn't stink it up. They were quality and will be in the top 5-10 D's this year.
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Good point by Brandon. That's one good D he did well against.
Tim (El Cajon, CA)
Do you think ANYONE will be interested in picking up Horn?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Yes I do, as long as Horn can convince them the issue last year was motivation/political and not age/health.
MJ Gill (Boston, MA)
What happened to Michael Clayton, he tore it up as a rookie then choked the rest of his career, is he done? can he blow up again?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
Some of it was injury related but I also don't think Clayton could live with the increased expectations that came after he had that great first year. Some people can't adapt to increased pressure and he might be one of them.
what do you think of greg jennings having a big season?
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
From a fantasy standpoint, I'd avoid Jennings. He's had 1/2 of a good season (his totals up until the OT period against Denver were average at best) and he doesn't have Favre throwing to him. He'll go higher than he should so don't pick him unless he drops to around a late #3 or #4 WR spot.
NYJ 10 wins! Over/Under.
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
Under. If the ball bounces well, I see 8-9 wins. Well, I've got dinner and a phone call to make so I've got to call it a day. Hope to see you all next week!