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Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Good morning everyone! Can you believe it, only four more weeks and five (six if there's a playoff needed) days to this baseball season? Incredible. Well, important times ahead, and important questions. Let's get to yours!

Exhausted Philly Fan

Is that it? Was last night's game the point where the Phighten Phils turn the corner and take command of the NL East?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

Yes. But I want to be bold, and fun, here. I don't trust the Mets' relief situation. Not at all. The difference between these two teams: Brad Lidge versus Luis Ayala. That's huge.

Kevin (Toronto)

So I have to say that I am a little confused about the Brian Fuentes situation. Is he still the closer? Do you see him taking on a closers role on another team if he is claimed? Who would close for the Rockies if he leaves?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

He's still the closer, but only if he sticks in Colorado beyond Sunday and once he's activated from the bereavement list. Look at these next few days as an open audition, between Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz. I think Corpas is going to get the longer look as closer, and he's a must-add right now, but if Fuentes can't get dealt, he's probably going to finish out the year closing.

Kevin (Monticello, NY)

I don't get it, who the heck is closing for the Mets?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Exactly. Luis Ayala will probably close tonight if needed, if only because while Aaron Heilman easily outpitched him on Tuesday, he threw way too many pitches to be available tonight. I do think Heilman is the smartest bet for saves on that team. But it doesn't mean I like him all that much. I own him in LABR, and that's 13-team NL-only. Note that I don't have Heilman in any other league of mine, and all of them are more shallow by varying degrees.

Tim

Brandon McCarthy? Your thoughts on picking him for the remainder of the year.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Matchups guy, and I have him in an uber-deep dynasty sim league. So, um, that's deeper even than the aforementioned LABR league. Maybe AL-only owners can get a useful spot start or two out of him in September, but consider yourself lucky if he's anything better than that.

Ruby (Seattle)

Tristan--where would you look on FA for SB this last month?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Well, I wouldn't, but Chris Dickerson has been out there in a few free-agent pools in leagues of mine, and I think he's underrated in the category. First name that pops into my head.

Jamie(NY)

In your opinion who grabs Fuentes?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

I don't think he's sneaking past the Dodgers, because that's one of (if not the) highest playoff hopeful in the waiver ranks. And whether those teams can strike a deal, I don't know. I don't see Fuentes as an exciting guy if he's L.A. bound. Might just platoon in the role with Jonathan Broxton. Besides, the Dodgers keep saying there's a prayer Takashi Saito is coming back. I don't buy it, but they're saying it.

Derrick Shea (cleveland)

Cliff Lee had to lock up Cy young last night, he offically has better numbers than Webb now

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

I think he locked it up well before last night!

Jonathan (New York, NY)

Hey Tristan, would you start Garza against Toronto tonight?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza will be starting every single game for me that they pitch at Tropicana Field. Period.

Nate McLouth (Pitt)

Am I a keeper?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

In deeper leagues, sure. Going back to my formats for a reference point, I've got a 12-team, 12-player keeper league, and I'd say he's keeper worthy there. More shallow? Probably right on the borderline.

Hugh (Charleston)

Five closers, who do I drop? Capps, Jim Johnson, Lyon, Jenks, Franky Frank

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

I'd probably drop Jim Johnson, whose command ratios don't overwhelm me and who plays on a team with a brutal schedule and one that has a terrible late-season track record.

Dave (DC)

Are you guys still pimping Jon Rauch as the "closer in waiting" in AZ? The guy has looked HORRIBLE over the last two weeks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:12 AM)

Interestingly, both Brandon Lyon and Jon Rauch have pitched poorly of late, though to be fair, Lyon's problem is that he simply can't pitch without a save on the line. I find it interesting that the manager's recent comments said Lyon would keep getting chances and that if there was a change in the role, it sounded like Tony Pena would actually be next in line. Just something to think about. Can't hop off the Lyon bandwagon just yet.

Jeff (Atlanta):

Tristan. I'm getting tired of playing Andy Pettite roulette. You never know if he's going to pitch well or not. I've very hestitant to keep him on my playoff roster. What do you think?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

I'm not sure what roster rules you have, but Pettitte is turning into a real platoon-split type pitcher. Right-hander hitters are tearing him up, so when he faces a loaded righty lineup, he's going to be risky. And I prefer him at home, too. I agree with you, he's not close to elite. But there are still matchups you can exploit. Is that useful to you? Not sure what else you have, but no, I don't think you can trust him every single start the rest of the way.

Jim (Chicago)

Tristan, would you start Wainwright tonight?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

Sure. Home start, looked good last time out.

Parker (Jacksonville, FL)

Looking for just a little help down the strech, already clinched a playoffs spot in my league. Any word on Laporta coming up soon, and if yes, will he help much? And the latest news from Price?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

I don't see Matt LaPorta playing in Cleveland this year, or if he does, it'll be brief and not regular at-bats. I really think he waits until spring training, especially after getting hurt during the Olympics. As for David Price, I still say if we see him in September, maybe it's a spot start to help the team get its playoff rotation in order, otherwise I see him working in relief. For both, I say 2009, not any real impact this year.

Crazy Carl Pavano (Bronx)

Should I be owned in any format? Even the NY Yankees DL League?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

Well, Sidney Ponson. If you like what Ponson has provided recently, I'm calling that the official ceiling for Pavano. It's your decision to use him or not, if that's useful to you. I think I've watched every Pavano start for the Yankees -- not hard to do, since there have been so few -- and I'm not overwhelmed. You can't get much more brittle than this.

Marc (Toronto, Canada)

Any chance you give either Parra or Gio a start tonight?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

Road starts for both against pretty good offenses makes me say no. Manny Parra would be closer to a useful start, but I'd say NL-only at best. He has been shaky on the road this year.

Greg (Boston)

Brandon Morrow: worth a waiver wire pickup for the rest of the year? Drop the Duke for him?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

I've said in past chats not to get your expectations too high for Morrow, because his command can be shaky at times and he's on an awful team. But I'd probably make that move. I see no reason the A's would rush Justin Duchscherer back if there's any question he's not 100 percent.

Kyle (PA)

Is it worth holding onto Scherzer any longer with the other dbacks starters doing so well?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

I still don't see why the Diamondbacks would rush Max Scherzer. He has had some health issues midseason, and you're right, the Diamondbacks' current starters have been good enough of late, especially No. 5 man Yusmeiro Petit. Maybe Scherzer could get some relief work, being groomed for that role for the postseason. I doubt it's that helpful to you, though.

Dimwyt (NYC)

Denard Span has really shown a lot of improvement since he was called up. Do you think he'll be starting CF for the Twins next season? 100 runs, 25 steals possible?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

He has absolutely had a fine season, but I don't see overwhelming upside in the guy. Sure, maybe he could handle that everyday role next year, sine the Twins generally don't fill spots like that with big-money free agents. At best, sure, he could attain those numbers. But I bet he's a tad streaky, maybe bats around .275? So there's a little limit to his mixed-league appeal.

Eric (Harrisonburg, VA)

Who do you like long term - Kemp or Hamilton?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Big Josh Hamilton fan right here.

suzanne

Please rank for rest of the season (6x6 12 team mixed roto): Crede, Wigginton, Blake. Also, rank Cook, Litsch, Moehler, P Byrd, A Reyes.Better start today M Cameron v. Wainwright or McLouth v. Marquis?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

I think I'd go Joe Crede, Casey Blake, Ty Wigginton. Among the pitchers, Aaron Cook, Anthony Reyes, Paul Byrd, Jesse Litsch, Brian Moehler. And for today, I'd take Nate McLouth.

ricky nolasco (failing fish)

am if for real (13-7) or pitching over my head.i have a decent e.r.a and my k/bb ratio is off the charts?!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

For real. The question with Ricky Nolasco has everything to do with health, and not at all to do with talent. He's as good as the numbers, it's just a matter of whether he can stay healthy enough to repeat this in 2009.

Mark Kotsay..

Am I a Sock at days end?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

That's the popular rumor, but I wouldn't get excited. Sounds so much like a J.D. Drew depth fill-in for me, useful only until Drew returns from the DL. Think a couple weeks, and ordinary numbers.

Tim

Is Cleveland really thinking of going to a 6-man rotation. That has to lower the value of Reyes?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Again, that's the rumor. But no, I don't think it impacts Anthony Reyes' value all that much. How many two-start weeks can a guy get in a given month anyway, one, maybe two? Eh, not going to worry me. I think Reyes is a decent September sleeper.

Matt (Raleigh)

Are the Red Sox going to catch the Rays, and are the Yankees playoff hopes over?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

No and yes. I've thought the Yankees were done from the very second Joba Chamberlain left that game. This team plays like one that is completely deflated by that one specific injury.

Steve (NYC)

Any chance Wieters gets the call this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

The Orioles say no but he needs to get a very long look for the starting role come spring training. Matt Wieters will, without a doubt, be one of the most exciting Rookie of the Year candidates heading into 2009.

Grant (STL)

For '09 - McLouth or Pena. I'm using the K.I.S.S method.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

I'd probably keep Nate McLouth in that instance, if only because I think it's pretty easy to get yourself a quality first baseman in the draft. Such a deep position. Besides, McLouth provides something important Carlos Pena does not: Stolen bases.

George, Philly

Nothing but love for Luis Ayala!!!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

I'm sure, George. You guys must love Luis in Philly today.

EKOL-I (VA)

Tristan- AL Only league- would you keep Hamilton at $34?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

Yup! Totally worth it.

Malik (AZ)

In a vacuum, if Nelson Cruz belts another 9 home runs with a batting average of .285, would he be a possible keeper with the likes of Brad Hawpe?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

I don't see Cruz being a keeper candidate, if only because you're asking a lot right there, and at his age he doesn't have much room to grow from his minor league numbers. As is, he might be a Quadruple-A player. I'd much rather have Hawpe. Cruz belongs in the draft, as a sleeper candidate for 2009.

Joe (Hamilton, NJ)

Tristan, please answer a question that everyone seems to be dodging. What is the status on Ian Kinsler? One minute he is being shutdown for the year. However, on another site (ehm...Yahoo) they state that he will be off of the DL on September 5th and does not need sports hernia surgery. Should I be holding onto him or not??? This is killing me!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

I'd be holding onto him. All the Texas media sources indicate that Kinsler is hoping to return the first or second week of September. There's a risk he'll shut it down, sure, but accounting for his potential, I'd be holding onto the guy until that's made official.

Tommy(Boston)

So if the Sox don't catch the Rays are they your pick for the wild card? If so who's out between the Twins and the W. Sox?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

I think it's Rays, White Sox and Angels as the division winners, Red Sox wild card. For as much as I admire what the Twins have done this year, they lack in experience and where that's relevant is in running up their young starters' workloads. It's a dangerous thing, and even a brief, couple-day cold spell might lead to a key guy (or two) being shut down.

Taylor (NYC)

Will Aaron Harang give me any good starts for the rest of the year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

Didn't he have that good one at Coors? I bet he's matchups-capable. But more than that, no, I'm a bit concerned he's incapable.

Jason (chicago)

I know this sounds desperate, but start Marquis today?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

I wouldn't. Pittsburgh has a better offense than given credit.

Doc (Knoxville, TN)

With the Yankees clinging to the faintest of playoff hopes, their hero, ARod, turns in one of his most ARod-esque performances.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

You're a day late, Doc. A-Rod looked awful yesterday in a game I'd have called must-win in order for them to qualify. Now they're forced to win today and tomorrow.

Dan, Boston

Your favorite pitcher--Big Z--took it on the chin yesterday. I'm at a loss what to do with the guy. With our H2H league playoffs coming up, believe it or not, I need your advice: start all the time? spot start?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

It'd be pretty awful for fantasy owners if the time he proved me right was at the most important time of our season, wouldn't it? I can't say it won't happen. Based on the year-to-date returns, I'd have to say don't panic, not quite yet. But I wouldn't get too cozy, either. There's more downside in him than your typical top-20 pitcher.

Marc (Toronto, Canada)

Please pick one of these free agents that will be the best spot starter for me the rest of the way... Meche, Pelfrey, Sonnanstine, Bush, Reyes. Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Tough call, each has spot-start value, and I've got a brief period of time with which to answer you. I have a feeling Gil Meche is going to be your best overall choice. But let's just add that Mike Pelfrey is a great start-at-home guy. Dave Bush, same thing. Andy Sonnanstine, like him against weaker offenses.

Brian (NYC)

Twins have the easiest schedule in baseball. Don't punch your Boston playoff ticket just yet.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

Well there you go. And I will say this: Boston is absolutely vulnerable right now. Still, I go with the experience. I don't change my call. I can say the Twins are out, but also say they don't miss by a ton.

RE: Twins Pitchers

Tristan, can Scott Baker's recent woes be attributed to being overworked? Can he continue to contribute in ratios like he did earlier in the year or am I better off picking up somebody like Yusmeiro Petit for Ws?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

Hmmm, could be ... though I'd still stick with Scott Baker. After all, easy schedule, according to Brian, and I think he has a stronger grip on a rotation spot. Petit might be skipped this upcoming weekend, for instance.

joe (NYC)

Have a noon deadline - go with either Dickerson (Cin) or Dukes for the rest of the year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

Chris Dickerson.

Scott (Rochester, NY)

Any word on whether Percy is coming back to close for the Rays? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Last I had heard he should be back right around the Sept. 1 40-man roster expansion.

Justin (Atlanta)

Will Francisco Liriano be a top 10 pitcher the rest of the way? He's looked great so far in 5 starts.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

I still think of all the pitchers with workload concerns, he's close to top of the list. The second the Twins fall out of the race -- if they do at all -- I think he's shut down for the year. So no, I can't say top-10 potential. Great arm, but more top-25, and with a downside.

Alex (Phily)

I start the playoffs on monday should I hold on to joba in case he comes back or try picking someone else and if so who?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

I'd hold on to Joba Chamberlain. He might be back in a little over a week, and at his best he can rival many of the pitchers in the top 25 overall. It's too high a ceiling to let go, for as long as the Yankees are committed to getting him back on the mound.

Medic (Knoxville, TN)

That was Doc's point Tristan. 1 out 2 men on, down by 3, A-Rod pops out weakly to center, trying to pull the 6th of Wakefield's outside pitches, with Abreu on first explaing that you have to go with the pitch. A-Rod eats up mediocre pitching to pad his stats, but is worthless in the clutch.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

Ahhhh ... I was thinking that was a prediction by Doc! Now, I don't put all the blame for the Yankees' problems on A-Rod. But last night was just such a brutal game for him. I won't be as hard on him as some are lately, but that's a bad game, and he has to answer to that.

Wade (NYC)

Hunter Pence - Just a scrapper or a legit 'upside' guy.....Discuss

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

Well, I think he's closer to being that "upside guy," but I don't look at Pence and see MVP candidate as his future path. He's a very good player. A guy entering his prime. Certainly keeper-worthy. But I see his current 162-game career paces and he's at about .290-25-90-12 numbers. I see a little growth from there, maybe up to what Carlos Lee has provided in his better years, but sorry, this is not a future Vladimir Guerrero.

Brad (Birmingham)

My rosters are locked on Sunday for the playoffs. What do I do with Fuentes? Should I drop him for Chris Perez?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Probably just based on the idea of safety in your statistics, I'd say yes. At least we know Perez should have a stronghold on the closer role in September.

Rob (Stamford)

Qucik One: Verlander vs Carmona- start none, one, or both?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

Well, there's no word here on starts/innings caps. Neither is elite, but I think I'd say both. They're coming off some pretty decent starts, and I think this could be an underrated pitchers' duel. Forced to pick only one, though, I'm going ... Carmona!

Jon (Houston)

Rank them the rest of the way - Slowey, Perez, Wainwright. Gracias.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

Kevin Slowey, Adam Wainwright, Oliver Perez. I just don't trust Perez. Or his bullpen.

Scott Schengrund New Jersey

Is Brandon Webb going to lose it in the last couple weeks?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

I don't think so. Didn't he hit an oh-so-brief cold spell a couple months ago, then come back with a roaring hot streak? Give him a break, maybe he was just battling nerves going for win No. 20 (which would actually be a first for him). Not worried, not at all. I bet he gets No. 20 on Sunday.

Steve (Ithaca)

So, the guy with the most wins in baseball over the last two months, and a 3.23 ERA in his last 19 starts "has spot-start value". I'll make a note of that and be sure not to waste a draft pick on anyone who's going to put up those sort of numbers next year.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

Who, Steve, Mike Pelfrey? Great, great hot streak. But I'm terrified to use him on the road against a good offense. I'm probably underrating him, and I have him on a couple teams, but at this stage of year any bad outing gets magnified. I'm just saying exercise more caution than the numbers. After all, Pelfrey looked brutal to begin the season, his bullpen is awful so he's under pressure to work complete games, and that WHIP was a worry in the past.

Jordan (NJ)

Tristan, these A-Rod hates are quite pathetic; "He pads his stats". Anyone can say what they want, but if their franchise had the money, they would take a gold glove 3B/SS who could be the greatest "player" of our generation (I'm 26) no questions asked. If anyone says otherwise, they are not baseball fans.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

I'm not an A-Rod hater. The guy gets massive numbers year after year, and every at-bat counts. And besides, there are so many Yankees to blame for their current position. Plus bad luck in the health department. But that said, my only point earlier was that he deserves blame for last night. One game, awful. For fantasy, he's extraordinary.

Dubya (DC)

What's a "SIM" league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

Simulates real baseball by using the statistics to play an actual game. You manage your squad. So unlike fantasy, things like defense, splits, etc., actually matter. Pretty fun. Makes you learn more about players' specific strengths and weaknesses.

George, Philly

To Steve from Ithaca: Look at Pelfrey's numbers against the NL East. Over a 5 ERA against the Phils and Braves lifetime. Over 7 against the fish

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

The man makes a good point.

Matt (Farmington,CT)

Do you think that Lincecum has the best stuff in the majors, and does he have any chance of catching Webb?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

He's certainly up there, and off the top of my head, I think I had him third among starting pitchers in my keeper rankings recently? I can tell you this for certain: He's top-five for 2009. And probably right there behind Johan Santana, Brandon Webb and probably Jake Peavy. Great, great talent. For this year, no, I think Webb is the guy in the NL.

Matt (St. Louis, MO)

Thoughts on Niese down the stretch? Worth picking up in mixed leagues?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

I'd call him a wait-and-see guy in a mixed league. I doubt the Mets would really ask a lot of the kid unless they get desperate. Maybe he offers you a spot start or two, but I sure wouldn't be counting on one in his MLB debut, I can promise you that.

Steve (Ithaca)

Point taken about exercising caution with Pelfrey, but I guess my point is, and a question in a more general sense, at what point does something stop being a "hot streak" and start being an indicator of genuine improvement? I think a half-season of great numbers from a 24-year-old second-year player is more of the latter.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Your point is well taken, too, Steve, and there's a reason I put him right after Gil Meche in that previous question. I sure could see some Pelfrey outings being more useful than Meche's. And it'll be interesting when I can take a closer look at him forecasting his 2009. I do think Pelfrey has made great strides.

Justin (Chicago)

What do you think Soto's longterm value is? What kind of numbers should/can we expect from him, average-wise, over the next 3 years?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

Hmmm. Well, I'm a big Geovany Soto fan. Could be a "lite" Mike Piazza from the latter's prime. Like a .280s-hitting, 30-homer candidate, I'd think. Might vacillate between .270 and .290 batting averages, 20 and 30 homers. But that's a great, great catcher. Easy top-five in each season 2009, 2010 and 2011. And I think a strong bet for No. 1.

Will (St. Louis)

Playoffs start next week and I have Webb and Peavy going twice this week - Is it just not meant to be for me?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

If they can't get you in there then it was just not meant to be, because you can't ask for two much better pitchers than that. If luck was not at all a factor in this game in no way would it be fun. Keep the faith, I think your odds are pretty good, Will!

Jim NY NY

Decisions decisions...Petit of AZ or Byrd of Boston -Who for this week and who for the rest of the season?thx

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Well, I'm pretty sure Yusmeiro Petit will be working out of the bullpen this week, so that makes your decision. It's Paul Byrd. Though, since I'm not much of a Byrd fan outside of wins and Petit will still get more starts looking forward, I'd say Petit for all of September.

Dana Eveland (Oak)

Am I worth a pickup?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Eh, wasn't overwhelmed before your minor-league stint, so I'd say no. Oakland is not a very good team anyway, so the ceiling is low.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Well, that's all for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I didn't get to yours. Always so many of them to tackle! Take care, folks, great chatting with you...