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Neyer Archive: Chats | Columns

Sid Carlstadt NJ


Why is everybody writing off the yankees this early in the stretch run, shouldn't what the mets did last year or the rockies serve as an example that no team is dead until their last game?

  (12:19 PM)


Well, sure. But you have to look at the odds, and the odds are *greatly* against the Yankees getting into the playoffs. In fact, if they make it I'll walk to the Pacific Ocean after the World Series.

Clay (East Brunswick, NJ)


Do you agree with Jayson Stark's notion that the Cubs have the best postseason rotation? I certainly do. They have a shot to have three starters finish the year with sub-3.00 ERA's. That doesn't happen anymore.

  (12:20 PM)


Yeah, probably. The Diamondbacks will look pretty good, too, if they make it. And the Angels.

Mike (chicago)


Can you explain the September roster expansion and which potential playoff team will it help the most?

  (12:23 PM)


Beginning on Sept. 1, a team can use any player on the 40-man roster, though in practice teams generally don't expand to more than around 30-32 (max), just because of logistics. It's rare that one of those extra players makes a real difference, though Francisco Rodriguez a few years ago was a notable exception.

Xander (Philly)


Ok, I know they are leading the division, but the Mets really have no chance right? Maine on the 15 day DL, Wagner out for a while, and the Phillies pitchers are doing great, not to mention the bats are starting to wake up.

  (12:24 PM)


Oh, they most definitely have a chance. I'm not sure I buy them as favorites, but maybe just very slight underdogs, maybe 47/53 or something.

Matthew (Champaign, IL)


How much has Ryan Ludwick benefited from hitting behind Pujols? I know most people think that it's only a real advantage to hit in front of a great hitter, but it's gotta help Ludwick that Pujols is always on base?

  (12:25 PM)


Well, it certainly helps his RBI numbers, and it certainly doesn't hurt to have infielders holding Pujols on. But the effects of these things is not large.

Jordan (NJ)


I know the odds are against the Yankees, but hypothetically speaking...If the Yanks sweep the Red Sox (very likely considering the pitching matcups), and the Phillies sweep the Mets (very likely because the Mets aren't good), both teams are in the same situation, 2 games back. I'm sorry, but your lack of faith in the Yankees just doesn't make sense.

  (12:27 PM)


Let me stop you right there, Jordan ... A sweep is *never* "very likely", and it's only moderately likely if you've got a great team playing a terrible team.

Brad(Long Island)


Rob, can you please settle this debate I had the other night.. My friend tried to tell me that Barry Bonds was a better player than Hank Aaron.. he's crazy right?

  (12:28 PM)


Bonds' performance was clearly superior to Aaron's. Whether that makes him "better" is up to you.

Chris (Los Angeles)


If you're the Angels, and you had to make a choice, would you re-sign K-Rod for $60M/4 or Tex for $160M/8?

  (12:29 PM)


Tex for $160/8. Good closers are out there if you know where to look. But are we sure the Angels can't afford both of them?

Scott (New Lenox, IL)


Rob: Is there anyway Albert Pujols doesn't win the MVP this year?

  (12:32 PM)


I think it'll be difficult for him to win, as he doesn't even lead his own team in HR or RBI. Granted, he may catch Ludwick in both categories. If he does, he's got a good shot at the MVP, particularly if the Cardinals sneak into the playoffs.

Johnny (LA, CA)


Seriously, Tex for $20 million a year? Is he really going to get this? He's not even top 5 at his own position.

  (12:32 PM)


Yeah, but he's Top 1 among free agents at his own position. That's all that really matters. Just ask Barry Zito.

Jon (Mad-Town)


Can you help settle a debate that my friend and I were having? I declared Ryan Dempster the Cubs Ace of 2008 but he continues to insist that it's Zambrano. So, who is the Cubs Ace?

  (12:32 PM)


Rich Harden.

Jason (Nashville)


Rob, did you notice that Jordan (NJ) said it's very likely the Sox get swept when (a) Sidney Ponson starts tomorrow and (b) Jon Lester starts Thursday?

  (12:33 PM)


I didn't. Hard to figure the Yanks being favored against anybody when Ponson's starting.

Kirk (Mpls, MN)


Does Grady Sizemore still strikeout too much, or is it balanced out by his other "numbers"?

Rob Neyer
  (12:36 PM)


Considering his durability, his defense, and his fantastic SB success rate, Sizemore's one of the five best players in the American League this year. And perhaps one of the three best.

Brian (Glen Ellyn, IL)


If you had an MVP vote, would you give it to the guy who was the best player, or would you try to determine who was the most valuable? To me this is a dumb question because regardless of the record of their team or who he has or doesn't have helping him, the best player has to also be the most valuable too, right?

Rob Neyer
  (12:37 PM)


Well, yes, that's always been my take on the issue. If I'm an Indians fan, Sizemore's performance isn't worth less to me if the Indians aren't contenders. I still want them to win as many games as they can.

Andy (Tampa)


Is Evan Longoria still the favorite for ROY even with the time missed for injury?

Rob Neyer
  (12:39 PM)


Yes. But if Longoria does *not* do well in September and if Armando Galarraga builds on his fine season, there might actually be a contest. Should be, anyway.

Cory (Atlanta)


Rob, you're playing devil's advocate with that Rich Harden response. Can't call him the Cubs ace for the season yet, although he looks untouchable right now. How much would you say the odds of the Cubs making the series change with his presence in the rotation?

Rob Neyer
  (12:41 PM)


Yeah, I was engaging in a bit of flippancy. But if you were facing the Cubs tomorrow, who would you most want to avoid? I say it's Harden. Whether that's still the answer in October, only his fragile body knows.

Jeff (Boston, MA)


I heard Ken Rosenthal last night say that the Minnesota Twins are an exception to the all the statistics on a year in year out basis and that their high batting average with RISP is skill and NOT a fluke. I call shenanigans although I do think Ken is a very good writer.

Rob Neyer
  (12:42 PM)


This is an empirical question, right? I'm not going to call out Robothal without checking ... But if someone wants to look it up, I'll be happy to present the information and let you be the judges.

Jon (Mad-town)


Doesn't Alexei Ramirez belong in the AL ROY conversation?

Rob Neyer
  (12:44 PM)


I suppose he's No. 3 behind Longoria and Galarraga, but I'm not sure how he moves ahead of those guys.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ)


Robothal? That's a new one...

Rob Neyer
  (12:45 PM)


Nah, it's not new. It's what nerds call him, because he pumps out some many words every day. Like, you know, a baseball-writing robot.

Jon London UK


When they lower the hall standards to let Jim Rice in how many more people could they let in to this new lower standard? 100 (just post war)? Would you and Keith Law have had a vote had they let you in the BBWAA? Or am I smelling conspiracy where none exists?

Rob Neyer
  (12:47 PM)


Yeah, you are. Keith will get in soon, probably this winter. And anyway, you have to wait 10 years for your Hall of Fame ballot. PLUS, two voters wouldn't make any difference; Rice is getting in next year. And yes, there are probably 100 non-Hall of Famers just as good as Jim Rice. Well, at least 50. Want me to list them?

Steve, Portland, OR


Just how far would that walk to the Pacific Ocean be? Are you chatting from Cannon Beach?

Rob Neyer
  (12:48 PM)


Ha! No, at this moment I'm in Portland, too. As you know, it would take me a couple of long days to walk to the beach from here. And it gets dark early in November.

Mike, Chicago


Why didn't Billy Beane hold Harden until the offseason and then try to deal him? If he was doing this for the A's they could have gotten a much better deal this winter. Gallagher, Murton and Patterson are all TERRIBLE baseball players.

Rob Neyer
  (12:49 PM)


Let's give Gallagher, Murton, and Patterson a few more weeks, shall we? I believe Beane didn't know much longer Harden would hold up. What if he'd broken down this month? Then where would the A's be?

Neil (DC)


Say something encouraging about the Nationals please.

Rob Neyer
  (12:50 PM)


They have nice caps.

Lance: (Little Rock, AR)


Hey Rob-Why is the NL MVP even in question? Pujols leads the majors in almost every statistical batting category and is the top zone rated 1st baseman in the majors. Take him off the Cardinals team and they don't even sniff .500

Rob Neyer
  (12:51 PM)


Yeah, well, he should have crushed Ryan Howard in the voting two years ago. Didn't happen. So we'll see.

Andre GA


Mr. Morgan stated that Carlos Delgado should be the front runner for NL MVP ... your thoughts? If he were to win, does that seal his Cooperstown ticket??

Rob Neyer
  (12:52 PM)


That was the argument for Justin Morneau two years ago, right? Player starts hitting in second half, team starts playing well, so he deserves MVP? I guess I have this odd notion that the first half is sort of important, too.

Chris (Seattle)


Lightning Round...if you were Teixeira's agent, how much do you think you could command in your next contract? $20MM/year sounds low.

Rob Neyer
  (12:53 PM)


No lightning round yet, as I'll be here until 1:10 ET ... But yeah, that might be low. Probably will be. Historically, pitchers have never made as much as hitters. So will Tex make less than Santana and Sabathia? I wonder.

Utek (LA)


You say closers are available if you look for one. Really? Ask the Mets after Wagner went down. Ask the Dodgers after Saito went down. Ask all the teams that have struggled to protect late leads how easy it is to plug Joe Shmoe into the closer role. You sabermetric guys are so into selling the idea that the closer role is overrated that you've wound up underrating it.

Rob Neyer
  (12:55 PM)


I disagree with you basic premise, but even allowing for the possibility that you're right ... Look around. Do you remember where Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner and Trevor Hoffman and Joe Nathan came from? None of them came up as closers. A good organization should be able to find, whether from inside or out, a pitcher who can thrive in that role.

Chris (CT)


How about Dewey? He had a better career than Rice. Why don't Sox fans (other than me) like him better?

Rob Neyer
  (12:56 PM)


Fred Lynn was a better player than Jim Rice, too. That's the truly bizarre thing about the discussion. When you look at the Red Sox outfielders in the late 1970s, Rice was probably the worst (sorry) of them. Granted, he did have one truly great year...

Jason (Nashville)


What about Soria? Papelbon was a starter in the minors (though he closed in college). Brad Ziegler came out of nowhere.

Rob Neyer
  (12:57 PM)


Yes. More good examples.

Doug (NY)


Not sure Keith wants to get in. From his 8/21 chat:Dan (DC): I'll give you this: you clearly aren't sucking up the BBWAA for membership Keith Law: I've told them I'm not interested. They made up a reason to exclude me and Rob, and refused to back down when shown that their arguments were fabricated. Joining now would only increase their credibility.

Rob Neyer
  (12:58 PM)


Oh, I missed that. He's right, but I didn't know he had been so public about being right. Good for him.

Julie (Pittsburgh, PA)


Can you say something nice about the Pirates? Top 5 starters average 26 years of age. At least we're not wasting starts on guys on the down-sides of their careers. Our OF looks good. And at least there is hope in our C, 1B, 3B. Or are we hopeless?

Rob Neyer
  (12:59 PM)


Not at all. I like what the Pirates are doing. I don't believe they're poised for a Rays-like surge, but I do believe they'll be competitive within the next year or two.

George (Jungle)


So, to sum up: some closers came out of nowhere, therefore everyone should be able to produce them out of nowhere? Really?

Rob Neyer
  (1:00 PM)


Yes, really. It doesn't make sense to throw a lot of money at a closer, whether he's a free agent or a high draft pick. Not when there's so much (relatively) free talent available.

Jon (Mad-town)


Make one bold prediction that no-one else will say outloud.

Rob Neyer
  (1:02 PM)


Indians win 92 games next year. (Is that what you meant?)

Ben (Omaha, NE)


Say what you will about AJ Pierzynski, but he's a heads up ball player and he gives it his all. Will he ever outgrow the reputation he got in San Fran and actually get some love?

Rob Neyer
  (1:03 PM)


I wouldn't feel too sorry for him. The people in Chicago seem to like him quite a lot.

Dan (DC)


Here's a stat you wouldn't have bet on - the Baltimore Orioles are currently 4th in the American League in runs scored.

Rob Neyer
  (1:06 PM)


Yeah, that's a good one. And they could easily finish second; in fact, they *are* second in the league in road scoring, a more relevant measure. I'm afraid it's not sustainable, though, as four of their five best hitters are on the wrong side of 30.

Hende (OH)


I think you've recycled that Indians prediction for at least the past two years, maybe three.

Rob Neyer
  (1:06 PM)


Right! And so far I'm batting .333.

JT (DC)


Joba starts a few games and looks pretty good and then gets hurt. You're the Yankees GM and you are thinking about the future. Do you put Joba back in the pen and groom him to be the next Mo or start him and risk blowing up the best prospect your team has had in years?

Rob Neyer
  (1:08 PM)


That's up to my medical staff. I'm really, really, really not smart enough to answer this question.

HJ (Ohio)


Lightning round: Jody Gerut - The best comeback story you haven't read about?

Rob Neyer
  (1:09 PM)


Definitely right up there. He's got what, 13 or 14 homers? Where would the Padres be without him? (and yes, that's a joke)

Dana (Boston)


We heard what Keith Law said (wrote). But as for you...if you were given the opportunity to vote for the HoF, would you turn it down? I hear what you're saying, but I'd have a hard time turning it down myself...

Rob Neyer
  (1:10 PM)


I have a hard time thinking about what I'll be doing when I'm 52.

guinness


Come on, Tatis' and Hamilton's stories are much better than Gerut's...

Rob Neyer
  (1:10 PM)


Oh, sure. But people are talking about those guys.

Mal (ny)


What do you make of Mo Rivera's numbers in save and non-save situations? It seems weird that arguably the best reliever ever would struggle so much when a save isn't at stake.

Rob Neyer
  (1:12 PM)


Just read something about this yesterday. This season, at least, nearly all of the runs he's allowed in non-save situations came in tie games. So it's not like he didn't care. It's just one of those things, though it's also true that his career numbers are quite a bit different.

dave (chicago)


Great 4A player for you...Micah Hoffpauir in the Cubs system...that guy consistently rakes but can't get up to the big club...somebody should grab him next year.

Rob Neyer
  (1:14 PM)


Yeah, I should have mentioned him in the blog today, not sure how I missed him. Definitely deserves a shot in the majors. Speaking of the blog, I have to go tend to that part of my life now. Also, you can see my smiling face on ESPNews at 4:10 Eastern today. My mom says I'm great. Until next time, don't forget: "If a million people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing."

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