Jayson Stark

  (1:02 PM)

I can tell by the comment lined up already that we've got a lively hour on our hands. So let's get the debate rolling.

Dan, Chicago, IL

Looks like you got one right here. The Cubs are the pick and it really shouldnt be that close. If the playoffs started today the Cubs would send Zambrano, Dempster, and Harden to the hill... In that order. Not bad when you have perhaps the best pitcher in baseball throwing game 3 for you. The pick is the Cubs...

Jayson Stark

  (1:03 PM)

Dan, you've really summed up my logic better than I have. No matter which of these guys pitches Game 3, there's a good chance he'd be more dominating than the pitcher he'd be facing. And that's exactly why I picked the Cubs.

Craig (Minneapolis)

If CC can keep pitching the way he has been he's #1 over any other pitcher. Ben Sheets started the all-star game this year and has arguably the best fastball/ curveball knockout punch in baseball. Cubs might have the edge at #3 but Parra has shown flashes of greatness, Bush has shown a resurgence since getting the full-time nod, and Suppan has experience (2006 NLCS MVP). Gotta give the edge to the BREW CREW.

Jayson Stark

  (1:07 PM)

From my first glance at these posts, it looks as if two-thirds of them are from Cubs and Brewers fans. So let's look at those two staffs. First, match up the July additions. CC and Harden are almost a wash, except for innings pitched. But all those innings Sabathia has logged already could be a negative come October, not a positive. Ben Sheets can be tremendous on any given day. But he's 1-5 since CC arrived. Even if some of that is run-support related, I'd take Zambrano or Dempster over him if you strictly analyze how they're pitching right now. Manny Parra does indeed show flashes of greatness. But he, too, just went five straight starts without a win. So if that's the Brew Crew's top three, I can't see ranking it over the Cubs. Sorry.

Ryan (Long Island)

This is absurd. The brewers have the best pitcher in baseball AND the NL's starting pitcher for the all-star game, yet theyre an afterthought?

Jayson Stark

  (1:09 PM)

See what I mean? The old inbox is full of comments like this one. Ryan, let's clear this up: If the Brewers were an afterthought, I wouldn't have mentioned them at all. But I broke down why the Cubs are better. And I'd be happy to break down why Arizona is also better. Potentially, the Brewers have a rotation nobody would want to face in October. But that's only if Sheets and Parra start pitching better.

Andre GA

Whoa whoa whoa ... Who can match up against second half Johan?? Big game Ollie and rising star Pelfrey??? Not to mention Pedro coming in as a 4th???

Jayson Stark

  (1:11 PM)

This is another team that's in the argument, or I wouldn't have mentioned it in the lead-in. But hang on. Oliver Perez has pitched well, but he's "big-game Ollie?" Sorry. Not a dependable enough track record. Pelfrey has been great. And Pedro loves those big games. But I have a hard time ranking the Mets over those other teams, especially given the John Maine questions.

Jon (Philly)

How about giving the Phillies some love? Sure they might not be the best but if Brett Myers is the real deal, then a rotation of Hamels, Myers, and a title craving stud in Jamie Moyer. I'll take that going into October.

Jayson Stark

  (1:13 PM)

I understand your argument, but look at it this way. After Cole Hamels, the Phillies' entire rotation consists of pitchers who they just hope will keep them in the game. That's the kind of rotation that can get you to October, but it's rarely the kind of rotation that gets you THROUGH October.

Justin (Chicago)

Why does everyone say CC's the clear best pitcher? Just because Mil doesn't have a bullpen and they are renting him so he throws a CG every game? Since coming to the NL, CC has a 1.60 era, 68 hits, 15 walks, and 74 Ks in 79 IP. Harden has a 1.47 era, 28 hits, 14 walks, and 70 Ks in 49 IP. Aside from the walks (which get cancelled out due to less pro-rated hits), Harden has the better stats.

Jayson Stark

  (1:14 PM)

Justin, you make a great point. But that 30-inning differential is a big deal, don't you think? It's also hard to overlook the ripple effect Sabathia has had on that entire franchise. That's an intangible, I know, but how do you not factor it in?

Muzzy (Leicester)

Way to cherry-pick your stats, boss. The Cubs are the only team with 3 pitchers in the top 27 in opponents OPS. But Zambrano is 27th and Lowe, the third Dodger, is 28th so is that really a distinction? Or is it something you threw together to make the stats justify your selection?

Jayson Stark

  (1:18 PM)

Why did I just post this? I don't normally post any comments from people who call me "Boss." And I bet I can stick to that rule for the rest of the hour. But I wanted to respond, for some reason. First, I'm not "cherry-picking." I'm making my case. That's what we do when we argue about sports, right? I make my case. Then you make your case. Then you have an official debate on your hands. Now, let's analyze these two staffs. Chad Billingsley can pitch for my team any game of any playoff series. Lowe is a fine No. 3 starter. But Kuroda rides that roller coaster way too much for me to rank him over anybody in the Cubs' top three. Same with Kershaw. And much as I love and respect Greg Maddux, he's not what he used to be. So did I just cherry-pick? Or did I make my case?

Matt Milwaukee WI

Your breakdown on the Brewers seems to overlook the fact that, realistically, Yost will probably use Suppan over Parra. With Suppan you have arguably one of the best post season pitchers in the game with an ERA of 3 over 9 starts. I do not see Dempster or Zambrano matching that. It also seems like using Sheets last 7 games as your basis for the argument of him vs. Zambrano or Dempster, however, the other 100 games of his career he has been leaps and bounds past Zambrano. There is not 1 stat in Zambrano's career that can beat Sheets in just 1 particular season.A rotation of CC, Sheets, and "Post Season Suppan" is better than a rotation of Harden, Zambrano, and Dempster if put next to eachother for OCTOBER baseball.

Jayson Stark

  (1:22 PM)

Matt, I understand your argument. But using Jeff Suppan's career postseason numbers to predict how he'd pitch this October doesn't work. His command in the 2006 postseason was as good as I've ever seen him. But he's not that guy right now. His ERA is 4.58. He's allowing hitters to bat nearly .300, and have an OPS of .813. So that's out the window. And I said in the last post that this was all about how these guys were pitching right now. I understand what a great career Sheets has had when healthy. But he's not in a real good rhythm right now.

Chris (Bloomington, MN)

Come on people. The Twins currently have a 5 man rotation all with winning records and ERAs in the mid 3s. Plus we have a closer named Joe Nathan. There ISNT a team in baseball with 5 pitchers all as solid as Minnesota.

Jayson Stark

  (1:24 PM)

I hear you, Chris. But I go back to my point about the Phillies. These guys have been unbelievable strike-throwing machines. But pretty much this whole rotation consists of guys who the Twins hope will keep them in the game. And that's not normally a formula for October success. Having Joe Nathan on your team IS a formula for October success, but we're not debating bullpens or whole staffs this week.

Rytor (CT)

Scott Kazmir is the reigning AL strike-out king. Matt Garza nearly no-hit two of the best offensive teams in each league (Rangers, Marlins), and James Shields had a 2 hit shutout against the Red Sox, and a 1 hit shutout against the Angels. The Rays staff is definitely a strong pick in the American League, if not the Major Leagues (Remember, the Rays swept the Cubs, facing Dempster and Zambrano!)

Jayson Stark

  (1:27 PM)

I didn't overlook the Rays for good reason. Their top three compares with any team. But lack of postseason experience is an issue for me when they get to October. I know the 2003 Marlins had a similar group, but I'd love to know how many teams have won a World Series with a rotation featuring no pitchers with postseason experience.

Cory (Atlanta, GA)

Given the fact that it really takes four starters to play late into October, is there any concern about Lilly in the Cubs rotation. He is not known for the amount of innings he's pitched in his career and, although he is one of MLB's strikeout leaders, doesn't seem to have that electric post season sort of stuff. Given his 12 wins and the other starters, I still take the Cubs rotation any day. But what do you think of Lilly in the post season?

Jayson Stark

  (1:28 PM)

Go back to my lead-in to this debate. Ted Lilly probably won't pitch more than three times in October. And as No. 4 starters go, he compares with anybody out there. I'd take him over Doug Davis, for instance. Wouldn't you?

John (Vegas)

Couldn't agree more. But how would a Rich Harden trip to the DL in October affect your rankings?

Jayson Stark

  (1:30 PM)

A trip to the DL by Harden, Sheets, Kazmir or anybody else in any team's top three would completely change this argument, obviously. But I forgot to consult my Ouija Board on which of these pitchers is going to get hurt. We're stuck with assessing how they all shape up right now.

Mike (Lisle, IL)

In response to Matt from Milwaukee's comment, "there is not 1 stat in Zambrano's career that can beat Sheets", I'd like to discuss a few of those. Zambrano has pitched 40 fewer innings over his career, so these are pretty comparable. Zambrano has given up 200+ fewer hits, 70 fewer earned runs, 40 fewer homers, has a winning percentages of 100+ points higher than Sheets, a 28 point lower BAA, and an ERA of .3 runs lower. Still think Sheets is "leaps and bounds" past Zambrano?

Jayson Stark

  (1:32 PM)

I love it when the readers do research like this. You two can fight it out among yourselves. But right now, I'd take Zambrano, even though he isn't pitching as well as he can (and has) at the moment, either.

Jonathan(New York, NY )

You honestly can not pass the starting rotation for the Diamondbacks. If you are going to play a 5 game series you will face Webb and Haren twice. In a 7-game series you could face Webb 3 times, it is a little ridiculous to think there is a better one.

Jayson Stark

  (1:35 PM)

Hey Jonatthan, it isn't ridiculous, or we wouldn't be having this debate. I agree that nobody wants to face Webb and Haren in October. But why is it "ridiculous" to argue the Cubs have a better rotation? Ryan Dempster actually has a lower opponent OPS than Haren, and a similar strikeout rate. Anybody who is overlooking him as a potential October force hasn't paid close enough attention. And since we're arguing top four starters, not top three, I think it's ridiculous to argue that Arizona's fourth starter is better than the Cubs' fourth starter (Lilly).

Josh DC

I am not advocating for them, but where would the Angels rank? I mean Lackey has to be one of the premier pitchers in the game and to choose between Saunders and Santana, having great seasons if not track records, and a healthy Weaver and solid John Garland is pretty formidable. They have to be up there as the best in the AL if not the Majors right?

Jayson Stark

  (1:38 PM)

I've been wondering where all the Angels fans are. And even though you're apparently not one of them, let's talk about that team. To me, the top 1-2-3's are Cubs, Dbacks, Angels, Rays in that order. But if we go four-deep, I'm not sold on either Weaver or Garland. So I'd go Red Sox if healthy, Cubs, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers and then Angels. Your thoughts?

Michael, IL

If we're talking post-season rotations I think that the forgotten team in the NL central is the carinals. With a one-two punch of Carpenter (when he returns) and Wainwright followed by a collection of guys having above average years including Lohse and Looper I think they deserve to be in the discussion. Most importantly, Carpenter and Wainwright have actually won a world series and can handle the postseason pressure. That remains to be seen with the Cubs and the Brewers pitching staffs.

Jayson Stark

  (1:40 PM)

Michael, you make a fine case. But Carpenter is such an unknown quantity, it's hard to put even their 1-2 punch in that elite group. Potentially, yes. But until I see Carpenter pitch like his old self five starts in a row, this jury is out on him.

Frank (New Haven)

Are we talking about "as is" or "if healthy" because "if healthy" you would have to include Curt Schilling as a plus pitcher for the Sox too right? Where are we drawing the line?

Jayson Stark

  (1:43 PM)

Don't get carried away, Frank. I'm not evaluating any pitcher who isn't going to pitch in October, and we know Schilling is through for the year, and maybe forever. But I think the Red Sox are still assuming Beckett and Wakefield are going to be healthy enough to pitch In October if they get to October. So why is it unreasonable to put them in the debate? They're 37-13 when Dice-K and Leter pitch. So if the real Josh Beckett shows up in October, they're right in the middle of this argument.

Conner (Houston)

I get how people can like the cubs staff, but can they pitch to a AL team, when u have 2 outs in the line up everytime through your numbers are going to be lower, plus who really puts up big numbers with the sticks in the national league

Jayson Stark

  (1:45 PM)

I guess we won't know that for sure till it happens. But the Cubs did get swept in interleague series in Tampa Bay and the South Side this year, so it's worth raising. That's another reason it's so tough to compare stats from the two leagues. A big strikeout rate in the NL isn't the same as a big strikeout rate in the AL. Rich Harden is up two whiffs per 9 innings since the trade, for instance. How many of those whiffs have been pitchers he wouldn't be facing in the other league?

Brian, Chicago, IL

I agree with you on the Cubs, but what about the White Sox starters - did you give them any consideration?

Jayson Stark

  (1:48 PM)

Absolutely. John Danks has been the least-talked-about great starter in baseball this year. But he has never thrown a pitch in October. And beyond him, this is another one of those staffs whose No. 2-4 starters don't rank with the Harens or Hardens or Sheets-calibre starters on some of these other staffs. I'd put them in the discussion for depth, but not for October readiness.

Rob (NYC)

How about the Yankee rotation.... oh wait. You said post season staffs. Sorry.

Jayson Stark

  (1:48 PM)

Sorry, Rob. We're not allowing gratuitous Yankees cheap shots in this chat. Please strike this one from the record, your honor.

Imre (Missoula, MT)

Regarding Matt in MIL, the one stat that concerns me most between Z & Sheets is DL trips. I think we all know who leads that category... Factoring in the Lilly as the 4th starter, the Cubs win in a landslide and here's why: Cubs Starters (with Marquis mind you) have BAA - .239, WHIP - 1.28 & OPS - .704. That's #1, 2 & 4 in the MLB. 'NUFF SAID!!!

Jayson Stark

  (1:49 PM)

You folks are doing awesome research. Feel free to keep making my case, no matter how many stats you have to "cherry-pick."

Mike (Toronto)

Kinda surprised the Jays not mentioned at all in your argument. Yes McGowan is out for the rest of the year but that top 3 (4 with Marcum before the injury and demotion) seems like it is right up there with the rest.

Jayson Stark

  (1:52 PM)

Mike, if we'd been having this debate at the end of spring training, I might have put the Blue Jays at No. 1. But I'm trying to confine this to teams that are closer to a playoff spot than the Jays are. They're eight out in the wild-card race, so it's kind of a moot question. Isn't it?

Eddie, ATL

Give me Webb, Haren and RJ over the Cubs' guys. All their stats are comparable to the Cubs' 3 over each of their last 10 starts per starter. My main reason though is that the D-Backs have two sure things (Webb and Haren) vs. the Cubs one sure thing (Zambrano). Dempster, Harden and RJ are all wildcards, and one never knows what will happen in the postseason with them.

Jayson Stark

  (1:54 PM)

Hold on. Why is ANYBODY a sure thing in the postseason? I think the Cubs-Dbacks top-three debate is really a close call. But I don't understand why Webb, Haren and Zambrano are sure things, but those other guys aren't. I'd take Rich Harden, when healthy, on the mound in any month.

Mike Amsterdam, New York

This is an interesting debate when we are talking about playoff rotations since everyone knows 2 shutdown starters can win you the world series. I would say the D-Backs have the best 1-2, but the RedSox have the best 1-3 if Beckett is healthy

Jayson Stark

  (1:57 PM)

You could be right. But again, why are you leaving out the Cubs. You don't think Harden, Zambrano and Dempster all can't shut you down? Ryan Dempster is averaging better than eight strikeouts per 9 innings, and his OPS allowed (.612) beats Haren, the Unit and anybody in the rotation of the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets or Phillies. He's had a great, great year.

Zeeshan (New York, NY)

I know the question is about top post-season rotations, but I'm just curious.. What are your top 3 Starting 5? I think the Mets have to be right up there at 1 or 2. I agree that they don't have the best top 3, but look at all 5: Santana, Pelfrey and Perez have been near-dominant since the coaching changes, Pedro is in a good groove right now, and Maine has also been decent (aside from the latest injury). If the Mets had even a mediocre bullpen, the starters' win/loss record would be a lot higher.

Jayson Stark

  (2:00 PM)

I have so many Mets comments, I have to take one more. I agree that the Mets have a group you could potentially win a World Series with, if Santana stays in this groove, if Pelfrey can translate to the October stage and if Perez can throw strikes in October. But I just can't rank them over these other rotations on year-long performance. Sorry.

Jayson Stark

  (2:00 PM)

OK, let's sneak in one more.

Rob (Stamford)

The biggest problem with this debate is that if you don't get a chance to watch Cubs games than you have a tough time believing in Dempster. I don't and I am astonished by how good his numbers out compared to when he was killing my fantasy team as a closer last year.

Jayson Stark

  (2:02 PM)

That's why we're having this debate, Rob -- to point out that if you stopped paying attention when your fantasy team tanked, of if you stopped paying attention in, say, 1908, you may not have noticed how dominating the Cubs' pitching has been. And we haven't even talked about their bullpen yet. This has a chance to be a fun October for this franchise. And I think they're slightly due for one of those!

Jayson Stark

  (2:02 PM)

Thanks to everyone who made this so much fun. See you back in Debate Land next week.