Fantasy Football w/Tristan H. Cockcroft
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Fantasy Football Archive: Football Chats | Fantasy Home Page
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:03 AM)
Good morning everyone! A tough, positively brutal Week 1 in fantasy football on the injury front, and that leads, assuredly, to many good questions. Let's get right to yours...
Ryan (PA)
Tristan, help me out. I already feel like I lost Moss when Brady went down and now Colston. Who do you like in a PPR league more from NO, Patton, Henderson or Meachem?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:05 AM)
Ryan, I'm going to be totally honest with you about the Saints. Sean Payton has a way of making something out of receivers you might never have expected, but the problem is in doing it, it's often the guy you least expect. Here's my feeling: David Patten is the strongest immediate pickup, and yes, I would go get him. But if I had a spot available on my bench to stash someone, I have a very good feeling about Robert Meachem. Didn't play in Week 1, sure, but his preseason was outstanding and I think he has the skills that can most closely replace what Marques Colston provided. No, he's not the top pickup of the bunch, but you need to keep an eye on this kid.
Josh (J-ville)
I got burned by Magahee in week one. Is he a safe play this week or should I go with one of these three: Ray Rice, Felix Jones or Sammy Morris?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:07 AM)
C'mon, Josh, no excuse for that. We had been advising you all week Willis McGahee was a risky play, and I do advise you check my Sunday morning inactives report, which has that kind of information. What I posted then was that at best it was a 50/50 split of the carries between the two, so in no way was that a good situation to exploit. McGahee is supposed to play in Week 2, but again, I'd be cautious. Morris is probably your best bet, barring some glowing report on the Ravens veteran before Sunday.
Nick (Greenwich,CT)
Hey Tristan. I always listen to your advice. Best WR3 option this week: Roddy White or DeSean Jackson? I know White wasn't Ryan's favorite target on Sunday, but he still had 56 yards. You thoughts?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:10 AM)
Thanks, Nick. I'd still pick White of those two. The main reason he wasn't all that in Week 1 was that the Falcons mounted an early lead and then went the ball-control route, but I don't see that being the game plan most weeks. Sure, Tampa Bay shut down White in two meetings in 2007, but if you watched the Bucs on Sunday, you saw how much that defense got torn up by the Saints. I think White can get behind them a couple times in Week 2.
Jay (FL)
I Drafted Mendenhall pretty high, Do you see him turning it around or should I drop him while Morris is available?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:10 AM)
Well, it depends on whether it's a dynasty/keeper league that allows many hold-overs, because if it's not, yes, I would absolutely make that move might quick.
Matt,MPLS
Would you start MJD or Thomas Jones over Addai at MN this week?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:11 AM)
Nah. No brash moves here, Matt. Neither of your alternatives faces that much better a matchup, and Joseph Addai brings the most explosive potential of the bunch to the table besides.
Nick (Tampa)
Any chance we see more of Pierre Thomas at RB while they use Bush as a receiver?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:13 AM)
Could, sure. Plus, we saw how Deuce McAllister was used in the opener (he wasn't). I do think Reggie Bush gets a small bump up in value, Jeremy Shockey, too, with Colston out. And yes, that's going to help Thomas, because he'll probably see around the same number of carries as he did in Week 1, barring McAllister getting up to speed pretty quick. Worth a pickup in deep leagues, stash the kid.
Nick (Rochelle Park, NJ)
Hey Tristan, what do you see for Eddie Royal? Sell high?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:15 AM)
That depends on how closely your league mates were watching him during the preseason. Let's face it, the kid is really a No. 3 fantasy receiver right now, that's it. He could wind up like Marques Colston or Anquan Boldin in their rookie seasons, sure, but call that his ceiling for 2008. And it's no lock he gets there. If I could sell him at, say, top-20/25 receiver value, yes I would do it. But I like Royal, and think he's going to help you more than not.
Dave - Orlando
Who to start at WR2 between Cotchery, Roddy White, and Driver??
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:15 AM)
Well, Jerricho Cotchery is playing for me every week so long as he and Brett Favre are flashing such remarkable levels of chemistry.
Craig (PA)
I can get Santonio Holmes for Chris Perry and either Randle El or Deshaun Jackson, which WR do i send? Is this a good deal?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:16 AM)
Uhhhh, Antwaan Randle El, and yes, in a heartbeat. Frankly, I'd do it if I had to with either receiver. Love Holmes, apparently this means he might be a buy-low guy in some leagues.
Joe (SF)
Tough decision to make here Tristan... who do you bench? Boldin, Cotchery, Marshall, or Housh?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:18 AM)
Tough one, very tough, Joe. I might recommend a trade for you at some point, since you have ridiculous depth at receiver. Forced to choose from those, since they're all so similar, I'm going with the worst matchup, and that means either T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Brandon Marshall. And I think I'd go Marshall here, if only because he's the one who wasn't working in Week 1, and might need a game to get up to full speed. He's not going to have any fun with Antonio Cromartie and the Chargers' cover corners.
Jon (Minny)
Forte or Chris Johnson this week and the rest of the year? Play them both over McGahee?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:19 AM)
Well, yes, both play over Willis McGahee in Week 2. And choosing between the rooks, I'd go Matt Forte, if only because we know he's getting 20-plus touches from week to week right now. Long term? Tough not to pick Forte again, but I love the upside Johnson provides. It might be a bold call, but I see phenomenal things in Johnson's future, especially in the second half, which is when it really counts for fantasy.
tito (bronx, ny)
have brees and warner, looking to shop one to brady owner.. can i live with warner as QB1?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:21 AM)
That's hard to answer "yes" or "no," because on a per-game basis, yes, Kurt Warner is fine. Problem is, he's a health risk, so he'd require a backup more than Drew Brees would. I wouldn't mind having Warner as my starter, but just make sure you insure him, and I don't mean with Matt Leinart. Get a good backup. Like Matt Schaub, currently a buy low.
Todd (Savannah)
Hey Tristan. What's the realistic expectation for Deion Branch's return?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:21 AM)
I keep hearing a week or two, but I'm a little surprised by that, because I really wasn't expecting him until at least October.
DGA
Does Royal's presence help or hurt Marshall this year? Seems like defenses won't be able to key on him as much, but Royal could steal some of his targets. Your thoughts?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:22 AM)
Helps. I think they'll both feed off each other. When there were rumblings Denver would be going pass-friendly in the preseason, I think the talk was dead on. Like both guys. A lot.
Marc (NYC)
Has anyone seen Keller?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:23 AM)
He played in Week 1 but didn't draw Brett Favre's eye a single time. And of what I saw of that game, I didn't catch Dustin Keller once. He'll probably matter later in the year, but can be safely left a free agent in redraft leagues. You don't really want a Jets tight end right now, if at all this year.
Steve (DC)
Can we agree that winning in ffb requires no pre-season skill or actual player knowledge, only how fast you can grab FAs? Brady, Colston, Barber? This is ridiculous.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:25 AM)
Sorry Steve, I don't agree, not entirely. I agree that preseason skill isn't the be-all and end-all in this game, but neither is it just grabbing free agents the quickest. Read AJ Mass' Commish's Court column this week. I agree with him 100 percent (can I make it more than 100 in fact?) that in no way should a league ever be first-come, first-served with signings. Ever, ever, ever. Don't do it, it's really imbalanced.
Tommy (boston, ma)
Tristan what is a realistic expecatation of sammy morris.. on level of d'angelo williams??
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:26 AM)
Totally different players. Fantasy potential, maybe comparable, though I'd still take Williams by a slight margin because I tend to go with the guy I think will get more touches each week. But they're different; I see Jonathan Stewart as the short-yardage/goal-line guy for the Panthers, and Morris is that for the Pats. And Stewart, simply put, gets more touches than Morris. Think flex play.
Matt (Providence, RI)
Schaub or Delhomme for the remainder of the season?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:27 AM)
I still trust Matt Schaub in that pass-friendly offense.
Raymond (Baltimore)
Tristan, I have a trade strategy question. I had Brady, Bulger is my backup and I picked up Cassel of waivers. I haev guys like DeAngelo W and Chris Perry and Galloway and D Driver on my bench. Should I try to make a trade now when people assume I'm desperate or try and tread water w/ Bulger and Cassel then make a trade later if I become more desperate
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:29 AM)
I owned Tom Brady in one of my most important leagues, which starts two quarterbacks a week, and made a trade within 30 hours of his getting hurt. It was that important I insured my depth so that later I wouldn't be so precariously thin that I couldn't help but get ripped off in a trade. In your shoes, Raymond, if you start one quarterback, who knows, you could be fine. But I'd probably put feelers out there. With those two guys you're in better shape than I was, because you can afford to say "no thanks" if you think the offers are just too unrealistic. Not like you'll have to start both those guys, like you would if you were in my league.
Kyle (PA)
What are your thoughts on Garrard now that he has no offensive line? He was my backup to Brady so I have major QB issues. I picked up Warner from waivers but am thinking I might still need to make another move to sure up this weakness. Maybe a trade for Cutler or Favre.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:31 AM)
Kyle, I'm concerned about David Garrard because he's going to feel a lot more pressure from defensive fronts now, and that's going to mean more sacks for losses and more ill-advised throws that lead to interceptions. Simply put, he is not the same as the Garrard we saw in 2007. Not anymore. He's also one of my quarterbacks in the aforementioned 2-QB league, which is why I raced so quickly to make a trade. In your place I'd have felt a lot cozier, though. Kurt Warner is a heck of a lot better per-week option than Matt Schaub, the guy I got. I think you can piecemeal that spot all season with those two.
Sean (PA)
Expectations were high for Rashard Mendenhall? Do you agree with that and what do you see from him for the year? He is being dropped alot!
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:33 AM)
I think Willie Parker is an absolute sell-high candidate, and Mendenhall isn't total garbage. As I felt in the preseason, by season's end Mendenhall has the potential to warm to the old Jerome Bettis role from late in his career, eating up goal-line work like crazy. Problem is, that's a very long time to wait, until year's end, and right now, entering Week 2, the fact remains that Mendenhall is absolutely a cut candidate. He has a fumbling problem and the Steelers don't appear to trust him in important spots. A guy like that, I think you can scoop up later in the year if he begins to matter.
Marsh (StL)
I'm confused. The Answer Guys told me yesterday to start Julius Jones over Fred Taylor, Bret Favre over Eli Manning, and Earnest Graham over Chris Johnson. However, ESPN's projections have Taylor, Favre, and Johnson ranked above the other guys, so now what do I do? Eli is ranked 5th to Favre being ranked 23rd, thats not even close.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:35 AM)
Marsh, we have a very precise system for our projections based on past history, defensive performance and health factors, and it's way too detailed to go into here. In no way is this an exact science. I think we all know fantasy football is a very opinionated sport. Would it be fun otherwise? You can pick and choose what you agree with, we have so much advice on the site for you to take in, and make your own informed decision. But for the record, there's only one thing I disagree with the Answer Guys on: I'd never start Brett Favre over Eli Manning this week. Not a chance. The rest, I'm totally in line with.
Dave (Tampa)
Hey TC, The player rater has Andre Johnson at 20 this week, but how can you really ever sit him?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:37 AM)
Again, the system is hard numbers, and let's add the fact that it's almost impossible for a projection system to factor things in like a player's upside or downside in a given week accounting for the matchup. Good example: What if we have two guys set for 20 carries, but one is a virtual lock for that and the other could get as many as 25 but also as few as 10? It's impossible to detail that in a hard number. To me, Johnson starts every week. Seeing him at No. 20 should just tell you not to expect a huge day from him. That's all that's saying, and that does help you as you set your lineups, knowing whether you might need to take some high-upside chances at other spots to make up for it.
chris (boston
tristan, i need u man, hook a brother up, do i trade turner and vernon for gates and slaton?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:38 AM)
Personal opinion here, but I'd rather have the more stable running back than the more stable tight end. Fair deal, but I prefer Michael Turner's side.
Joel ( Roscommon MI)
Whats your take on Wes Welker's value ?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:39 AM)
Didn't look good working with Matt Cassel late in Week 1 and I think that's a concern looking forward, since at no point in his career has Welker shown the kind of chemistry he had with Tom Brady. I'm dropping his status to a weekly No. 3 receiver for fantasy, that's about how he should be regarded. It means he starts most weeks, but there will be some matchups when he warrants a sit.
Rick (NY)
What do you make about the Vince Young story? Is Kerry Collins a decent QB2 pickup now? He's done it before and fits that offense well I believe.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:41 AM)
Awfully hard to tell what's going through a person's head, or to interpret sketchy off-the-field reports. I'd be worried that Young's 2008 season is already a lost one, though. He endured a brutal preseason, looked terrible in Week 1 and now has all these doubts surrounding him. I won't call you crazy to write off a guy I don't even think I had in my top-20 quarterbacks in the preseason. Collins, hmmm, I think he's a shaky No. 2, but I admit, he's probably a better fit for the offense. I bet you can do better, but he's not a total discard, either. Rather rate him a No. 3 with possible No. 2 matchup potential.
Dallas (WV)
Hello Tristan, who should i start this week Cutler or Warner? Thanks
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:42 AM)
Kurt Warner. Matchup greatly favors him of the two.
Chris (Miami, Fl)
If you had to pick a rb from denver who would it be?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:43 AM)
If I had to, I'd take the guy I see leading the team in carries: Selvin Young. Then Michael Pittman, because it seemed pretty clear to me he's the goal-line back. But it's Mike Shanahan, I rank 'em really close and I don't like any of them, not as trusted weekly options, even from your flex spot.
Mark (NYC)
Ethics question. Do you agree that a new scoring category should never be added after the draft (i.e. fractional points for receptions) and certainly should never be added once the first game is played?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:44 AM)
Without question. Can't say it any stronger than that. Never, ever change a rule in-season, and I say never after the draft is completed, either.
DGA
Is Shaun Alexander or Cedric Benson worth a quick grab and stash in the event they sign with someone like Cincinnati?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:44 AM)
I'd rather take Alexander of those two, but I still see his primary use as a change-of-pace back, something that isn't especially useful in fantasy. He was cut in a few 12-team leagues of mine with deep benches (six, seven players), and I think that's appropriate. He's borderline useful there, if you can stash him, no more.
Matt, Raleigh
Keep benching Palmer for Warner for the forseeable future?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:45 AM)
I honestly haven't memorized the schedule, let me grab my sheet and check, but Week 2 says yes, Kurt Warner is your man, no doubt.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:46 AM)
And yes, looking closer, I have a feeling Kurt Warner might be your stronger choice for as many as five weeks. But keep checking back each week.
DGA
Best defense for the rest of the year: Bills, Bucs, or Ravens?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:49 AM)
I'm going to say the Ravens are the ones that provide the most explosive individual games when the matchups call for it, but Tampa Bay might be more reliable from week to week. I usually want the higher upside in a defense, though, so I'd go Baltimore.
John (LA)
Am I ok with Rivers and Rodgers in my league where we start 2 QBs?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:49 AM)
If you have a strong lineup everywhere else. Neither of those guys is going to hurt you. Doubt they're going to win you a championship on their own exploits, either. Good mid-value quarterbacks.
AI (Philly)
Worried about McFadden or good buy low?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:50 AM)
Good buy low. He just needs a little time to get acclimated to the offense, I'd think, plus he was a bit nicked up in Week 1.
Dave - Orlando
Why do you think Willie Parker is a sell-high guy? I am in a league where you get bonus for hitting 100 yard markers and long runs, and think he may be very valuable in that format, agree? With that said, is 10-12 total TD's this season from him a crazy idea?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:52 AM)
No, it's not a crazy idea. I mean, c'mon, that's 7-9 more scores, and there are 15 games to do it in. I'm clearly going to be wrong with my Willie Parker preseason touchdown projection, and that's OK. I just think a guy coming off a game like that gets a huge surge in value, that's all. Don't give him away, but he's not a No. 1 running back, more a No. 2, in my eyes. And in your format, I would agree he's more valuable, because I do like what he can do with those long runs. That's his best asset, that breakaway speed. I just don't trust him entirely in short-yardage situations, that's all.
Suss (NY, NY)
Scoring question. If you are playing with IDP, do you believe that stats should be refelctive of the difficulty of obtaining those stats. I.e. a sack's value should be more than a .5 point higher than a tackle since sacks are much more difficult to accumulate?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:53 AM)
I'd agree with that, Suss, but sadly it's too late to change it now. Propose the change to your commish beginning next season. For comparison's sake, in my league it's a point per tackle -- I believe that's solo tackles only, not assisted -- and two per sack. Seems about right.
Prince (Pittsburgh)
I have a good offer involving Steven Jackson is there any hope for him to produce on that terrible team?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:54 AM)
Well, I don't know the offer. But it better be good, worthy of a first-round selection no doubt. I still believe in Jackson. His Week 1 matchup was poor, but it only gets better from here.
Karl (Chicago)
Name game: Kitna, Schaub, or Cassel?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:55 AM)
Jon Kitna is going to throw a lot this season, so him for the long haul. And Week 2, for that matter.
Nick (Greenwich,CT)
With Huard being the starting QB in KC, would you start Bowe over Welker in a .5PPR?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:56 AM)
I don't think the switch at quarterback is really going to change Dwayne Bowe's outlook at all, but I like him as a No. 3 receiver with borderline No. 2 potential. So that means I think he's a hair above Wes Welker at this point.
Sean (Hoboken)
Drop Devin Hester for Bryant Johnson or David Patten? PPR league. Special team Return yrds + TDs dont count.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:56 AM)
Yuck, don't like Hester if you get no points for his returns. Way too unpredictable week to week. I'd take Patten for him in a second.
Dan (NJ)
Graham or J. Jones this week?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:56 AM)
Earnest Graham. Good matchup.
Buzz Beater....
Selvin better option than C.Perry?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:57 AM)
I actually don't think so, but neither one is much more reliable than a flex option for the most part. I'd try to avoid both for Week 2 if I could, incidentally, and would take Perry if I had to pick.
Mike (DC)
Start Felix over Jamal this week?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:58 AM)
Felix Jones over Jamal Lewis? No way. I don't care that Lewis' matchup is poor, there's no way he's sitting for a clear backup. Jones' Week 1 exploits were more a matter of garbage-time opportunities. Don't go nuts.
Dave (Tampa)
TC, Is Matt Jones a legit #3, or just a one week wonder?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:59 AM)
What I said about David Garrard earlier applies to all the Jaguars receivers, so I'd say no, he's not quite a legit No. 3. Is he worth a pickup? Yes. But that's more as a depth fantasy receiver you can slot in as a No. 3 or flex when the matchup calls. That's a more generous evaluation than it might sound, but it also details his weekly limitation.
Matt (new york)
Start perry over maroney and mcgahee this week?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:00 PM)
I don't like Chris Perry's matchup at all, period.
kurt (Wilmington, NC)
warner or hasselbeck this week?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:00 PM)
Kurt Warner.
DT (NY)
I'm loving the DeSean Jax, but I can't start him over Braylon, OchoCinco or Santana can I?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:02 PM)
Hard to do it, you're right, but I'm awfully tempted to do so over Santana Moss, whom I think is overrated. I'd take Jackson over his great matchup, though, only if Mike McKenzie is out for the Saints and Jackson is a clear starter with the other Eagles receivers out again.
Mike (DC)
Isn't Marion Barber injured though?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:03 PM)
Yes but no panic buttons here. Sounds like he's going to play, but I'm making the call on Wednesday, and games are not won making your set-in-stone decisions on that day of the week. You have to keep tabs in the slim chance the news changes things.
Tim (St. Louis, MO)
Quick kicker question. Drop Crosby for Reed?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:04 PM)
Sure why not. Kickers are such a crapshoot anyway. I'd probably stand pat but both are good for fantasy.
Jim (Miami)
McFadden or Forte this week?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:04 PM)
Matt Forte until Darren McFadden rises in that Oakland offense.
Marc (Philly)
Graham or Bush this week .5ppr
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:05 PM)
In that format I'd go Reggie Bush. Especially after the Marques Colston news.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:05 PM)
Best of luck to everyone in your Week 2 matchups, and thank you for all your questions! Sorry if I didn't get to yours, we get so many each week. Take care!
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