Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
Hello! Got a lot of questions to get to so let's get started.
Alex (New York)
What do the metrics tell us about Dwight Lowery's potential. I really liked the job he did last week.
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
His metrics were really good (2.2 YPA on five passes) but my scouting eye also said he looked great. I've got him potentially holding Moss to under 100 yards on Sunday.
Long time reader, first time writer ... Berrian & Rice in Minny, who's going to emerge as the featured receiver? And will he be anything more than a #3 fantasy WR?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Thanks for writing in! Berrian will be the #1. They didn't pay him those big dollars to be anything other than the featured receiver. And he will be a good #2 fantasy WR by midseason at the latest.
KC, You have always said Deangelo Hall was overrated. Is Eddie Royal the real deal or is it that Hall is really just that bad?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
I think it's a bit of both. Royal looked great but Hall did his usual job of playing incredibly soft and giving up certain types of routes.
Robbie (Pound Ridge, NY)
Hey KC! Looks like I was on to something with Eddie Royal. Was this a breakthrough performance for him and what can we expect from the Broncos offense which has looked flawless through preseason and the first game?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Good call Robbie! I will say that Royal has his toughest test coming up this week. Quentin Jammer has been one of the best YPA corners the past couple of seasons and looked as good as ever in week one.
KC, as you might've heard I've got a lot of free time on my hands. Can I help with the chat? Stuart Scott let me help out on his earlier today.
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
I somehow think that the real Tom Brady would be spending his time helping Matt Cassel prepare for the Jets.
Nice start to the season KC, hope you are doing well in your other leagues.
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Hey now, I went 3-2 in my leagues this past week. I also have LT in one of the leagues that I lost in, so I'm not exactly worried about bouncing back there. If that wasn't enough, I also picked up Eddie Royal from the #7 waiver spot in another league.
Dee (Greenville, NC)
Uhoh 3TDs and no picks for Rivers.....in a loss granted, but I was just glad the offense actually got going in the second half. Rivers definitely looked better as the game went on, but he got away with almost throwing 2 picks early. Can't really hate on that pass he made on the run to Gates in stride.....now that's the accuracy I used to see at NC State. Your thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
You are right that Rivers did look great. My only beef is that I had him with two bad decisions in 28 non sack/spike dropbacks. That's a high total (7.7%) so I'd like to see him move that down but all in all he's looking just as good as he did at his best last year.
Hi KC, Which 2 start in a 1 PPR league-Forte, Graham, Addai, and Chris Johnson? Anthony Gonzalez woth dumping for Patten. With Clark hurt, maybe Gonzo sees more targets but Patten should be more consistent. Thank you
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
I'd stick with Gonzo, as Patten will just be too inconsistent in the NO offense (they spread the ball around to everyone). I'd also go with Forte and Addai this week (although it's hard to say sit Chris Johnson).
A defeat to Pitt Ruggers week 1 high score shouldn't worry you either KC... you will bounce back!
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
I tell you, I'm going to have call out you guys when I beat you! Although I have to give you credit, your team had a great week on Sunday.
Hey KC, why are the Seahawks still considered favorites in the NFC West after all of their injuries and why are the Cardinals not getting any love in the power rankings?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
After the way they looked on Sunday and because they lost Burleson for the year, I'd say Seattle is not the odds on favorite. If Arizona is ever going to knock them out of the division penthouse, this is the time. I'd say if the Cards win one or two more it will start to be reflected in the power rankings.
KC, im assuming this will be a weekly decision for me...but brandon jacobs or LJ this week? im leaning towards jacobs...
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Jacobs all the way.
If you were rewriting your fantasy QB rankings today, where would you put Matt Cassel? They still have Moss, Welker, and a very favorable schedule. Will he be worth a fantasy start over Favre on Sunday?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Start Favre. He's going to throw caution to the wind and chuck that ball vertically all game long. No way he misses an opportunity to get some highlight plays in against the Patriots in a game the entire country will be watching. His ego wouldn't let him play it safe.
Eric (Long Island, NY)
hey kc ive been tuning in and out of all the nfl chats today but as always i've been looking forward to your chat the most. What do you make of the jaguars-bills game this weekend?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
I think the Bills could have their coming out party this week. The Jags have huge O line issues and Buffalo looked dominant against Seattle. The Bills are stocked on defense and Trent Edwards is playing terrific right now. They'll beat the Jags and maybe even do it by a 31-14 score.
Dan West Deptford, New Jersey
Hey KC, Long time reader and subscriber...your stuff is awesome! Quick question...what is your feeling about Rashied Davis and the Bears O after week one? Also, I'm one of the unfortunate soles who lost Brady...sigh...u think I have a chance with Schaub at the helm? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Dan, I think the Bears O line is for real. Davis's fantasy issue will be volume, as Chicago isn't going to run the ball much. And I wouldn't be too worried about Schaub just yet. Pittsburgh is a very good team and they always start the season well. Houston has some good matchups coming up so Schaub's totals will improve.
Your boy Lee Evans is gonna breakout with Schonert's new offense. Your thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Is gonna? Doesn't last week count as a breakout game?
Who would you start at flex in a PPR league: Mason, Royal, J. Stewart or A. Gonzalez?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Mason if you want to play it safe, Royal if you are playing for upside. I do like Gonzalez a lot but the rule of thumb is play a starting WR over a #3 WR whenever possible.
Can you give me the skinny on the Seahawks current set of WR's? Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
They are Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne and Jordan Kent. The only skinny I can give you on them is that they are just as unproven as you think they are. Seattle does do a good job of coaching their wideouts but these guys will be facing Nate Clements and Walt Harris this week. I don't like the sounds of that at all.
Dustin (Fullerton, CA)
I know they turned the ball over 5 times but outside of that (actually 4, Spikes fumbled a squib kick) didn't the 49ers offense look much improved?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
As funny as it sounds, I probably agree with you to a certain extent. Gore looked good and the O line did OK in the run game. Staley still can't pass block worth a darn, though, so unless they can fix that problem, they'll be hard pressed to get much better.
Nate (Wash. DC)
Dr. Joyner! I need to start 2 of these 3: S Holmes, HOUSH, or Matt Forte. What do you think? Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
I'd go Holmes and Forte.
Follow-up please. Kent is now on the practice squad... Do you know anything about Billy McMullen and Samie Parker? Senaca Wallace from his few catches? Thansk.
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
I hadn't seen where Kent was moved over, so thanks for the update. Billy McMullen is a good fit in the sense that he has played in that system before. On the downside, if Philly didn't think enough of McMullen to keep him (and they've kept a lot of mediocre WRs around through the years), that should say something. Parker was bad enough that the Chiefs sent him packing and he's not used to the West Coast offense, so I don't think he's a good fit at all.
Hey KC! What are your thoughts on the Bears-Panthers game? They both looked pretty good last week winning big games on the road. Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
I was a heckuva lot more impressed with Chicago than I was Carolina. I think the Bears win this one.
Haven't been able to get this answered all day . . .need to make a decision and it's killing me. Hasselbeck vs. SF or Kitna vs. GB?? The obvious choice is Hasselbeck but i'm worried that the Hawks don't have any weapons and will pound the run. Your thoughts??
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
I'd go Kitna, as a QB with a great set of WRs is better than a QB with a lousy set. Plus Roy Williams has done quite well against Al Harris many times in the past, so the metric history is on your side.
Corey (Lancaster, NY)
Hey KC, do you see the Bills winning the division or the Jets (not to single out the Mia. or N.E. fans). Most people are jumping on the Jets wagon, and I fail to see why. The Jets barely beat a struggling Dolphin team that almost came back, while the Bills beat a consecutive playoff team (though I understand Seattle had a bunch of injuries).
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
I hate to predict things after only one week but my gut instinct right now is that Buffalo has a really good shot at taking the division. I'm not sold on Cassel and the Patriots D isn't what it used to be. I'm not saying Buffalo will win it but as it stands right now I'd make them a strong darkhorse candidate.
Scientific football 08 is excellent but I am disappointed you don't have run blocking metrics.
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Tom, run blocking metrics are one of those things that I'd like to do more of. It's really a matter of public interest as much as anything, as the pass metrics tend to be of more interest to more readers than run metrics.
Basil (Corona, CA)
Do I start Addai automatically even though hes going against the Vikings without his center or do i take a chance and go with Sammy Morris? (Non PPR)
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Addai. Don't worry about the Colts O, they'll be fine this week.
KC, you say Trent Edwards is playing terrific right now (which he is). Do you still think JP Losman should be starting, or has Buffalo made the right call?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Edwards is the right fit for the Bills. I still say Losman is one of the better QBs in the NFL (he'd make my top 15 for certain) and he'll eventually find a way to a starting position elsewhere in the league.
Brady Owner (Drowning Sorrows)
Some a$$ just offered me Delhomme for Plax. Admittedly, I do only have Huard to start, and Harrison and 85 are my other two WR's. (deep 16 team league)
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
You're going to need someone other than Delhomme so I'd bite on that trade (or at least try to get the other coach to take a bit less than Plaxico).
Reggie (Black Diamond, WA)
How's it going KC-There's been much hype about the rookie running backs, but we all know how hype doesn't always pan out. Considering McFadden's situation in Oakland (so-so line, qb with equal potential and inexperience, mentally unstable? owner) do you think he'll be the most successful in 4 years, or will it be someone on a more established team like Forte, Johnson, Mendenhall, etc?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
As I said earlier, judging things after one week is something I try to avoid because it's just not enough of a sample size. Having said that, I think Forte is the real deal and will be the best of that bunch.
Ryan (Branford, CT)
Be honest and explain to me why no one gives the Giants any credit to win the Division... when... they beat Dallas on the road in the playoffs last yr and Romo hasn't won a thing...?? NO love!
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
It probably has as much to do with people liking Dallas as much as it does not liking the Giants. Let the G-Men go 3-1 or 4-0 and I'll bet their division winning bandwagon gets overloaded.
Luis (SB, CA)
KC, you're killing me smalls. 3rd time I ask. Let's talk Monday Night. What's the key to the matchup? Two blitz happy teams with deep corners, great RB's, and capable QB's. Maybe WR matchups?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
The key will be if the Eagles can scheme their way around the talent deficit that is their WR corps against Dallas's CB corps. I happen to think the Eagles will do well in this area but it might not be enough to offset the Boys unless Samuel can hold Owens in check.
Cummon KC, "The Bears O line is for real" Have you seen John St. Clair lately?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Lloyd, I actually bashed St. Clair in one of my fantasy Insider articles, so I know what you mean. Let me rephrase what I said and say the Bears O line is for real in the area of run blocking.
Tell Ryan that the Giants don't get the love the Cowboys do because of the talent on the teams. The cowboys sent 13 pro bowlers who all came back not to mention adding pacman, zach thomas, and I'm certain Tank will give it a run at the pro bowl also
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Ryan weighs in on the Dallas-NYG issue.
KC, I lost Brady in chat #3 league. It is almost unfair some one would steal matt cassel from me in a 14-team league, am i right?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Maybe but I can tell you I'm sitting in another league with Schaub and Vince Young. Young may not do anything all year and if something happens to Schuab, I'll be looking at #3 QBs in that league. It ain't fair but who said fantasy football was fair!
whos a better start braylon or brandon marshall
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Braylon has a tough matchup against Deshea Townsend but he's still ranked higher on my board than Marshall.
What was so unimpressive with Carolina's win? Contrary to the highlights, Carolian dominated that game into the 4thQ, holding a 9 point lead. All of this without Steve Smith. Why was Chicago's win that much more impressive?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Terry, I did break down the game so I know they had the lead and all. It's not that their win wasn't impressive but rather that Chicago's was more impressive because they dominated throughout. I think Carolina would have been as good had Steve Smith been in the game, so don't take it as a pejorative!
KC, I personally wasnt all that imipressed with the Packers monday night. They had a ton of penalties, and the defense just wasnt that good. It also seemed to me that Al Harris has lost a step. How far do you see them going?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
I don't want to knock what Rodgers did on Monday but hasn't everyone toasted the Vikings secondary? And Rodgers had the benefit of going after a second stringer. I want to see him do this against a good pass defense before I sign off on his being the second coming of Favre.
patrick (savannah, ga)
who do i start? mcnabb or warner?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
I'd go Warner if only because of the WR/CB matchups. Philly doesn't have the talent edge Arizona does in that area.
Michael (Ann Arbor)
What kind of WR return should I be able to get for Forte?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
A very good #1. Don't take anything less and don't trade Forte unless you are stacked at RB. He's going to put up good numbers all year long (barring injury).
Colts - Vikings: Who's gonna win???
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Colts. The Vikes don't have the secondary players the Bears have and Indy will take advantage of those weaknesses.
Joshua (Washington, DC)
KC, the "best division in football" AFC South seems to be in shambles (Colts look old, Jaguars have injury problems, Titans have a bizarre VY saga, Houston can't win in the trenches). After one week, who is your favorite in this division? My money's on the Titans, simply because their defense was solid on Sunday, but this seems up in the air.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
I'd still go Indianapolis. Manning looked rusty but he also had to face a really good Chicago secondary. Let him get the rust off and he'll be fine.
I have the option of dropping Owen Daniels and picking up Anthony Fasano (I have Dallas Clark, but he is hurt). Should I do it?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
I like Fasano a lot but he'll be splitting TE catches with David Martin. Daniels will get them all to himself so stick with him.
He KC love your chats!! Whose defense should I start. Seahawks home against 49ers or Bills @ Jags? Is this as stupid of a question as I think? Bills all the way right?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
I like both defenses but the Bills are the way to go there.
Waylon (San Carlos, CA)
Hey KC, I'm not one to jump to conclusions after the first game of the season, but what are your thoughts on the Raiders? They supposedly have more talent on the roster from last year, but Monday's loss was worse than anything I watches from 2007.
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
It sure did look a lot worse than their first game against Denver last year. It's really not a talent issue, as this team is just as physically talented as last year's Raiders group that nearly beat the Broncos.
please KC! PPR league - pick 2 out of r.bush, m.lynch, and r.grant! im hurtin here!
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Go Bush and Lynch.
SprungOnSports (Long Island)
Who do you think comes out on top in the Browns-Steelers game? Can Cleveland show any life against a contender this week?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
I'm still going Pittsburgh. Anderson had some bad decision issues again and McDonald took some steps back in the secondary.
For the person who asked earlier about starting Addai and the injuries on the line, Jeff Saturday has been practicing and is expected to play this Sunday.
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
Good point and another reason Indy will bounce back this week.
Zeus ranks Linehan at the top in play calling rankins and 2nd in critical call rankings. Is he a decent coach or are they just so bad that he is never faced with any tough decisions??
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Dave, Linehan may be a decent playcaller but my scouting eye says the Rams players simply don't believe in him. I'd also point out that Linehan has aged in a presidential fashion the past three years. Just like every prez looks tons older after their term has run its course, Linehan looks like he has aged about 15 years in his tenure. This could go south for him in a hurry this year.
KC, read your chat every week when I'm back from hospital work. Off today--so please answer this: best 2 players to sit of Edwards, Toomer, Winslow, T.Gonzalez, R.White, Ma.Clayton. Thanks so much!
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Glad you could join us live today, Greg! I'd sit Toomer and Clayton assuming it is a performance league and not a PPR league.
And one more bit of Colts fantasy news: Bill Polian said in his radio show that Dallas Clark has no damage to his knee and is also expected to play this Sunday.
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
More updates from Matt. Thanks for the skinny!
KC!! Grant is a must start this week against the Lions. Their D couldn't catch a cold.
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
Corn, my concern at this point is that he was on the Wednesday injury list. If he is taken off that list today or tomorrow, I might change my mind.
KC, who do i start at my flex position? Anthony Gonzalez, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, or Pierre Thomas. I know, not great pickings. Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
Not bad pickings either, though (which is to say I've seen worse!). I'd go with Smith, although I do think Gonzalez has some upside if you want to take a chance.
Saturday playing?? I thought he was out for 6 weeks?
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
That's what we all thought but he fully participated in practice on Wednesday so it's not a red herring.
Ugh - Schaub or Hasselbeck?
KC Joyner (5:04 PM)
There is no better way to go out than on a question that starts with Ugh! Go with Schaub. He's got Andre Johnson to throw to and Hass doesn't have one favorable WR/CB matchup on his chart this week. Well, it's time to go, as my wife has a meat and potatoes concoction nearly ready to put on the table (her description, not mine!). If you get a chance, check out my Insider articles from this week and my start/sit one on Saturday!