Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football.
Wow, I am hurting in our Chat league, even though I am 2-1. Who do you like, Schaub or Delhomme in another deep league I am in?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
I like Delhomme. Schuab and Johnson may have good numbers this week but Delhomme will go vertical often against a young Atlanta secondary.
Do you think the Lions have any chance to land a big name GM and coach?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
I'd have to say no on the big name front if only because their history shows they don't pay the big dollars for GM/coach. I also don't think Rod Marinelli is a bad coach but rather has been given a lot of subpar players to work with.
Marc (Honolulu, Hi)
KC, Great job by Woodson on Owens. The game showed that Woodson is the better big game corner than Harris. Do you agree?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Woodson has been the better corner than Harris in every way for the past two seasons. It bothered me enough that I actually wrote about it in Scientific Fotoball 2008. I just thought it was nuts that Harris got a Pro Bowl berth last year.
Matt Millen (updating resume)
KC, how are my metrics looking now?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Your TV broadcast metrics are starting to look a whole lot better.
KC you were kind of down on Cutler and the Broncos before the season! Have you changed your thougths?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
For the most part, yes. My issue with them before the season was that they didn't have a solid #2 WR. Now that Royal has filled that role well, everything else falls into place.
Doc! I need the metrics' insight on the same exact trade you helped me with last year... Keeper League... Randy Moss or Reggie Bush? Last year you answered Moss and this year I'm wondering if I should trade him back and give Bush another chance...
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
If you can pull the trigger on that trade, I'd do it. The only caveat is that Moss may be better than Bush next year but that's an issue you can address then.
Tim (Port St Lucie)
Jason Campbell at top 10 QB?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
I don't know that I would put Campbell in the top 10 just yet but he has zero bad decisions in three games this year despite playing in a new system. He's top 15 and on his way to top 10.
Broad Street Brian (philly)
You handled my squad last week just fine Sean (philly) FF question here. Big Ben or Greise? not happy with either option.
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Go Griese. As I point out in today's Getting Defensive fantasy column (which can be found on the ESPN fantasy football page) four of the Steelers sacks last week came as a result of blown blocks. Baltimore will confuse that O line just like Philly so Ben has limited fantasy value.
KC . . . This Willie Parker injury has really put me in a pickle. Would you start Mendenhall, D. Bowe, or J. Cotchery as my flex? Now I will sit back and enjoy my favorite chat!
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
I'd go Cotchery. Bowe is putting up points but the Jets-Cards game could turn into a shootout.
Robert (Latrobe, PA)
Millen was the second highest paid GM in the NFL. Maybe they just don't pay big bucks for good GMs/coaches.
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
I have to give them credit that they also paid big bucks for Martz as an assistant. I just think they will say "hey, we paid Millen a high salary and it didn't pan out, let's try going the other route this time."
Dee (Greenville, NC)
What do you think about Rivers ability to audible on the fly? This is why I thought he would be a great one.....not that he's there yet, but on his way. If you look at his games at NCSU he used to audible off the line a lot. I like VJ and Chambers, but Buster Davis gives the Chargers someone in their WR corps with great RAC ability. I can't wait to see their offense with everyone healthy. Do you think 30 TDs is realistic for Rivers this year?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
The Chargers have Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta and the Chiefs secondaries on their schedule. I could easily see two TDs in each of those games. Add that to his current total of nine and it equals 19 TDs with eight other games. Get one per game in those other ones and it's 27, so 30 is definitely a reasonable number.
KC, how has JTO's metrics looked this year so far? And also do you think he will continue to play relatively well the rest of the year??
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
O'Sullivan has a 2.4% bad decision rate right now. Given how often SF is going vertical, that's a good number. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move up a bit as the competition heats up but it's so far so good for JTO.
Hector (Key West)
KC, so you're avoiding the is-Rivers-an-elite-qb question?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Hector, I thought saying a QB would throw for 30 TDs would automatically be construed as putting him into that elite category.
My two starting QBs are Cutler and Rivers. Do not trade either at any costs, right?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
I wouldn't say at any costs because unless you are in a two QB league, one of them is only putting up great bench points. I might aim to get a top flight player I could put in my starting lineup, with the only caveat being don't trade him to another contending team.
Kevin (San Diego)
How are the Steelers corners looking this year?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
About the same as usual. Taylor has an 8.5 YPA and McFadden a 5.1. Why Taylor has a starting job in this league is still a mystery to me.
KC, You dont like the Bills? Afraid to say they will sweep the NFC West?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Joe, you must be new here. I say so many good things about the Bills that I get complaints about this chat turning into a Bills only chat. I like Buffalo as a potential #2 seed in the AFC. They are deep on defense, have a very good running game and Trent Edwards has zero bad decisions. That's a playoff recipe if I ever saw one.
PT (Franklin, NC)
How bad has Deangelo Hall been so far?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
9.3 YPA for DeAngelo right now. Not good.
Colts Run D: You watch tape so you see things. I know the team is light up front (always been the case really) but I think a big part of it (aside from the fact I don't think Sanders was ever 100% healthy)is Tyjuan Hagler being out. No, he wasn't a big stats guy last year, but he did his role within that defense. It seems to me that Clint Session is constantly out of position.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Mike, my take on the Colts run D is that they are grading out well individually. They actually won a lot of POA blocks against the Vikings. I wouldn't worry about them long term.
David (Columbia, Maryland)
Do you think my beloved Skins have a chance this week against the 'Boys?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Yes I do. During my Getting Defensive article research I found that Dallas has zero ints to go along with Jason Campbells' zero ints. If Washington doesn't turn the ball over and can get Romo to throw some picks (a likely proposition), they'll have a very good chance of keeping the game close until the 4th qtr and then having a shot at sneaking away with a win.
Jeff (NY, NY)
How good as Revis been this year?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Darrelle Revis is posting a 6.0 YPA so far. I've got him as a Pro Bowl sleeper right now.
Bill (York, PA)
KC -- You said that Trent Edwards has ZERO bad decisions after 3 games? Is that uncommon, or are there others with zero bad decisions?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
There are six starting QBs with zero bad decisions right now, so it is uncommon.
Is Ronnie Browns performance a sign of things to come? or just a lucky 1 hit wonder type thing?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Miami didn't grade out well in the run blocking metrics for the first two games of the year, so I'm hesitant to fully jump on the Brown bandwagon. Let me see the Fins block well for two games in a row before I sign off on this one.
Justin (St Paul)
What do you think of Brandon Jacobs and Jamal Lewis for the rest of the season and do you like Jonathan Stewart more than either of them?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
The Cleveland O line is not doing that well this year, so I like Stewart much more than Lewis. Brandon Jacobs is a terror and the Giants O line is doing it's typically good job at run blocking so definitely keep him.
I just traded Vincent Jackson for Felix Jones. Who do you think has more fantasy value?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
I probably like Jones more if only because Jackson has some tough cornerback matchups coming up the next few weeks.
KC, did you purposely put Lane with the 2 Philly guys on purpose? Trade question...Roy Williams and Graham for Braylon and Julius Jones? I am in WR bye week/injury trouble and hoping to get Braylon
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Sean, of course I put Lane with the Philly crew. I couldn't miss seeing that kind of battle! Regarding the trade, I'd make it. Jones is running very well and Williams is a concern right now.
Bob - Helena MT
How are you doing in your fantasy leagues?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
I'm 6-3 in the chat leagues so I'm happy but it's still too early to get too happy.
Geez KC could you answer a non-Bills question today? What is going on with the Denver D? If they can fix it then they would be the #1 contender in the AFC right?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Travis, the Broncos are one of the few teams whose run D I haven't been able to look at yet. I'll be doing so over the next couple of days so hit me up with this question next week and I'll have some answers for you!
Vincent Jackson (Chargers)
KC, some tough cb matchups? You mean like DeAngelo Hall?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
I have six of the Chargers next 10 cornerback matchups rated red (red being the toughest matchup). Some of those will move over to face Chambers but Jackson will also see some.
Rudy (Corpus Christi)
I know its early in the season but looking at Dallas schedule do you see them going 8-0 when they meet the NYG in week 9?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
It's quite a possibility. I see the Skins, Bucs and Cards as roadblocks but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Boys beat all three of them. At some level I'd like to see that because an 8-0 Cowboys versus 8-0 Giants matchup would be a marquee game!
Are the Bills CB's a top 5 tandem? They do not get a lot of recognition nationally, but very few passes get thrown deep against them.
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Let's make it a trio. Check out these YPAs - McGee 6.0, Greer 4.6, Youboty 4.9. This has the makings of maybe the best coverage secondary in the league.
Would you try and buy low on a guy like Ryan Grant right now? Or do you think hes going to continue not to produce?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
I'd probably stay away because of some of the future matchups - Tennessee, Minnesota, Chicago twice and Jacksonville. GB's O line has not been blocking well and that isn't likely to improve against that bunch.
I always though Cortland Finnegan was pretty good, but now that he is getting some national attention, the question must be asked: is he the best CB in the NFL?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Chris, I've been on the Finnegan bandwagon for a while now but let's not get too carried away. He doesn't even have the best YPA in the Titans secondary, as Nick Harper's 2.2 YPA is top notch.
Maybe a crazy question, but i just want to be sure: Would you start Rivers against a decent secondary in Oakland or JT O'Sullivan against the pathetic Saints D?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
It all comes down to the Saints secondary health. If Gay and/or McKenzie don't play, you'll want O'Sullivan in the lineup. If both of those guys play, stay away from JTO and play Rivers.
I've got your back KC. Rivers has NOT been an elite QB BEFORE this year, which is all you have ever said. His performance now doesn't prove you wrong about the last 3 years!
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
B hits the nail on the head!
Kent (new orleans)
KC - how can you come up with enough metrics on a team like the Saints, who have 7 starters out right now? Where do you see the Saints after the next three home games?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
You're right that it is very hard to gauge the Saints. After week one I thought they had one the best secondaries in the league but they haven't been able to put that group out there for another game since then. I see them going 2-1 in the next three.
KC, can you believe that Canadian is leading this year's fantasy league and he is undefeated on top of it. He won a close one last week, but plans to walk into the finals by week 10 at this rate, but Bye weeks could hurt his chances.
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
You see, that's the kind of unbridled enthusiasm I'm talking about. The fantasy football gods have a way of punishing this kind of hubris so let's all watch and see if Travis's best play goes down with a season ending injury this week.
Who should i start big ben or Collins
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Collins is the safer pick but don't expect more than 10-12 points out of him.
Brandon (Bellevue, WA)
KC, what do your metrics say about a players intangibles? That is why i have a problem trying to encapsulate a player but stats alone. Paints half the picture.
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Brandon, one of the recurring themes in my Scientific Football book series is that intangibles should show up somewhere in the stats. That's part of why I get as granular as I do in the metrics. I want to track as many of the areas that intangibles could affect as possible.
Craig (Norwich, CT)
Any thoughts on the career of Troy Brown?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
Troy Brown's legacy may be that he got more out of his talent than maybe any player in NFL history.
What do you see in Forte? How high is the ceiling? I know its early but that juke on Sanders in Week 1 to break the 50t looked like old school Fred Taylor...
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
I like Forte a lot but his O line is starting to concern me. They are being beaten at the point of attack far too often. Forte's good enough to get yards without consistent blocking but the poor O line play does limit his upside.
What do you think of Al Harris's injury, and also what is it going to do to the Packers secondary?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
It could be a negative chain reaction. The Pack don't have any proven depth behind Harris/Woodson.
HIT ME! DMC with a bum digit or Chris Johnson against the Minnesota run D???
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I'd take DMC in that one.
Who do you think is going to have a bigger game on Sunday? Chris Chambers vs. Oakland, or Greg Jennings vs. Tampa Bay?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
It all depends on if the Raiders move Asomugha over to cover Chambers. I think they will do that and that makes Jennings the higher point producer.
Curious if you have the metrics for Vasher/Tillman. This new stack line and blitz every play defense has definitely improved the run defense, but I don't think leaving Vasher/Tillman on an island is a good idea (please see Griese with 400+ yards and 67 pass attempts).
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
Vasher and Tillman are struggling a bit. Tillman has a 6.5 YPA, which is good, but he's only forced five incompletions in 26 pass attempts. Vasher has an 8.3 YPA, which is higher than normal for him as well. Well, I've got to hit the road. If you get a chance, check out my articles on the ESPN.com fantasy football page!
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