ESPN

Keith Law

  (1:02 PM)

So here's my campaign for the moment: if the Dodgers reach the World Series, Fox needs to take one game at Dodger Stadium, lock its regular broadcasters in their hotel rooms (give them the minibar keys if they must), and let Vin Scully call one game, solo. I would be glued to the TV for that.

Steve, Cleveland

Indians in 2009?

Keith Law

  (1:03 PM)

Heck, if the season was about three weeks longer, I'd say Cleveland in 2008.

Chris (Dallas, TX)

Jason Bartlett is the scrappiest scrap that ever scrapped. Kudos to the BBRAA!

Keith Law

  (1:04 PM)

I have a new word for players like him, whom the BBRAA praises in spite of obvious evidence that they're not that good: scraptacular. I doubt I made this up, but I'll claim it anyway.

Kevin Towers & Bud Black (San Diego)

Will we both still have our jobs at the end of the season? And why will Sandy still have his?

Keith Law

  (1:05 PM)

I'm not sure why Black would be blamed for what went wrong. I have thought for a while that Towers is more of a front man, the guy who looks/talks like a GM and can deal with the media while Alderson, Depodesta, and Fuson actually make the decisions. Kevin's an evaluator by trade and a good one by all accounts, yet their moves indicate strongly that their equation favors performance analysis over scouting.

Jesse (Los Angeles, CA)

I always thought the All Star game should be that way as well-- Scully, Harwell, etc.

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

That might get me to watch the ASG. OK, maybe not.

Jibraun (Los Angeles, CA)

Ryan Ludwick has the 23rd highest VORP in the majors this season. Do you still believe his performance to be a fluke this season?

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

Absolutely. What you see from Ludwick this year may or may not be all that.

Josh Engleman (Tamaqua, PA

With the Nats having two of the top 10 picks in the next draft, how much does it hinder them in getting the top shelf talent? Also, how much does that change the draft for the other teams?

Keith Law

  (1:07 PM)

Lot of reports on the Nats' ownership's refusal to spend money, which could mean a severe handicap on their draft next year. Of course, if they don't make the GM change, it's irrelevant, isn't it?

Niel (Dallas)

What team has the most pitching in their minor league system?

Keith Law

  (1:08 PM)

Texas. Tampa, Boston, San Francisco too.

Kamden (Honolulu, HI)

Who's your NL Cy Young pick?

Keith Law

  (1:10 PM)

Torn between Lincecum and Santana. I think if Santana wins on Sunday and it clinches a spot for the Mets, or at least puts them into a one-game playoff, he'll win. Their performances this year are comparable, but I think Santana gets a little less help from his park and faces slightly better competition, while Lincecum gets less help from his defense.

Jose (Santa ANA Ca.)

Klaw, What do you think about Pedro Alvarez`s new contract? and do you think we will see him play in Hawaii this fall?

Keith Law

  (1:12 PM)

I guess the principle at stake was Boras' ability to say he got the highest nominal bonus, although Posey's is still the largest by present value (which is the figure that matters). The major-league contract is a negligible gain. I do find it interesting that once again, it's Frank Coonelly out in front for the Pirates talking to the media, doing the negotiating, etc. That's the GM's job in every organization ... can you imagine, say, Theo Epstein allowing himself to be marginalized like that? (Plenty of time to slip Alvarez into a fall league, by the way.)

andre (brasil)

who's the american league mvp?

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

I would pick Grady Sizemore. I think the actual winner will be Morneau if the Twins make it, Pedroia if not.

James (Philly, PA)

According to Bill James' website, Chase Utley has a +47 this season using the Fielding Bible's +/- system. Is Utley really this great of a defender? I think so but I never hear anything on TV other than he is a "good" defender.

Keith Law

  (1:14 PM)

Yes, he's superb. Very sure-handed with good range. Not bad for a guy who was considered a defensive liability out of college.

Mitch (NY)

Have you ever witnessed a team get a man on third with nobody out 3 innings in a row and only score one run? I am giving up hope on the Mets.

Keith Law

  (1:14 PM)

I'm not sure why they never tried to squeeze last night.

SPC (Wiesbaden, Germany)

If Jr. hit 4 HR and drive in 10 runs and help the sox wrap up the AL C, Could he be mention on the AL MVP?

Keith Law

  (1:16 PM)

It's funny how no one is mentioning how terrible Griffey has been for Chicago. He's got a 90 OPS+ since the trade. Oh, and he's awful in CF.

Paul Philadelphia

I know this is a touchy subject and won't get picked, but do you find anything disturbing/odd about how few of the "scraptacular" players out there are of non-white descent?

Keith Law

  (1:17 PM)

There is no question in my mind that "scrappy" is a term used to elevate white players who are not that athletic. You almost never hear about unathletic black players who play hard. There's still a lot of latent racism in baseball.

Rytor (CT)

Keith, my friend...true or false: the Rays will be a better team in 2009 than in 2008.

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

They might be a better team on paper, but they'll very likely have a worse record, barring some major moves this winter.

Matt ( Brooklyn)

Gammons says he thinks Brett Gardner is an everyday CF... not exactly my thoughts, I pictured a solid 4th OF. A poor man's Dave Roberts. What do you see him being?

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

He's between a 4th OF and a 5th.

Tim Gunn (NYC)

Make it work, Keith. Make it work!

Keith Law

  (1:19 PM)

I'm just trying to Pull. It. Off. (And screw Leann for kicking off the best-looking model on the show.)

Matt (Fredericksburg, TX)

Your thoughts on the Astros home stand in Milwaukee?

Keith Law

  (1:20 PM)

Untalented players whining about losing to a better team? I'm not interested, sorry.

Mike (Brooklyn, NY)

Keith - big fan of your work. What possess the Wilpons to give Minaya an extension?! His record screams "mediocrity." Thanks for Castillo Omar.

Keith Law

  (1:22 PM)

Talk about tone-deaf ... why exactly did this extension have to be done now? Was Omar going somewhere next week? Was he secretly taking the Seattle job? The Wilpons sort of gave the middle finger to their fans. I'm not saying Minaya was undeserving - he's done some very good things, landing some big-ticket players and committing more resources to Latin America (which is already paying off in their system) - but that's a definite PR FAIL giving him an extension during another late-season slide.

Dan (NYC)

Keith, any intention to read Junot Díaz's The Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao? I'm sure others have recommended it but I loved it and thought I'd ask.

Keith Law

  (1:22 PM)

Eventually, yes.

chris (madison)

How about Yovani Gallardo getting thrown in the fire to help save the Brewers season? Can he step in and be the legit #1 the Brewers need to replace Sheets and Sabathia next season?

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

I like Gallardo, but he lost a year of development, and was probably more of a #2 even before this year. Asking him to step in and be the #1 is way, way too aggressive. Be happy if he throws 150 innings without injury.

tim (miami)

klaw i know you just work for them but why is espn so prejudiced against small market teams.im referring to the fact that when cantu hit his 25th hr completing the first 25 hr infield in mlb history,espn barely gave noticed to that feat. (plus with one more hr from cantu theyll all end off with 30+)

Keith Law

  (1:24 PM)

Maybe because it's not that impressive a feat? That's a manufactured "record," like all this silliness about Jeter's hits at Yankee Stadium.

Jeff (Columbus, OH)

Keith, with the Blue Jays being the best pitching team in the AL and a top 5 defensive team, do you think they could surprise next year?

Keith Law

  (1:28 PM)

Right now, their projected Opening Day rotation is Halladay, Purcey, Litsch, and two of Romero, Downs, Cecil, and Janssen. I'm not banking on much from McGowan his first year after major shoulder surgery. So no, not as currently constituted.

Chuck (Bronx)

As a Mets fan, the more I think about it, it's actually stunning that this team has any chance at a playoff berth with that bullpen. That's not the problem though, right? The problem is Wright's un-clutchness, Reyes' laziness and Beltran's lack of love for the game. Don't forget Santana being overpaid because he only has 15 W's.

Keith Law

  (1:29 PM)

$5 fine.

Easton714 (IN)

What is the ceiling for Mitch Boggs? Do you see Jess Todd staying as a starter? If not, why? Thanks, Keith!!

Keith Law

  (1:30 PM)

Boggs right now projects as a power middle reliever, with a chance to start but a long way to go to get there. Todd's absolutely a reliever, and one of those with limited trade value because of his lack of velo.

Nick (Los Angeles)

Who is the best first round opponent match up wise for the Dodgers?

Keith Law

  (1:31 PM)

Mets or Brewers. I'd definitely want to face either of those clubs with their bullpens and the way they're going to fry their rotations this last week.

Brandon Phoenix, AZ

I love reading your chats Keith, but I still have no idea what BBRAA is. Could you enlighten me?

Keith Law

  (1:33 PM)

Sort of an inside joke - Baseball Reporters Association of America. A derisive (but well-merited) term for the BBWAA, since they're obviously not open to all baseball writers, just reporters for dead tree publications.

chase(phonex)

puljos or howard for mvp?also in Al how isnt k-rod considered in there 62 saves isnt good enough?

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

K-Rod would be one of the worst MVP picks of all time. He's thrown a tiny number of innings - there's no way he could be more valuable than a player like Sizemore playing every day and contributing on offense or defense. Pujols is handily the best player in the NL this year.

Eric (Albany)

So will all teams be allowed to negotiate up until Sept 20th with their 1st round draft choices?

Keith Law

  (1:35 PM)

The 8/15 deadline is really just a suggestion now, isn't it?

Joe (Blacksburg)

Speaking of K-Rod, can this be an official manufactured record for most overrated record of all time?

Keith Law

  (1:37 PM)

I wouldn't dispute that. The save is a pretty artificial stat to begin with.

Ben (Tempe, AZ)

Isn't it impossible for the Brew Crew and Dodgers to play in the first round?

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

Was answering the broader question of whom I'd want to face if I was any team.

Eric , indiana

do you see david price pitching in the playoffs?

Keith Law

  (1:40 PM)

I think he'll be on their playoff roster, although in what role is still a question.

Nick (L.A. Cali)

Keith, do you see Alfredo Aceves in the Yanks rotation next year? He has been throwing well and seems to be able to handle the NY pressure. How do you see their rotation for '09 shaping up?

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

My guess is that he starts the year either in their pen or in the SWB rotation. They would seem to be a lock to add one major FA starter; they'll probably keep one or both of Pettitte/Mussina; and you know Hughes will get a rotation slot.

Keith (Pa)

Come on. Didn't you feel it was a bit unfair regarding the Astros games against the Cubs in Milwaukee 1 day after their communities were flooded? I mean, they were a legit contender for the wild card at the time. Plus, they had to play in Chicago's backyard. I know that you can't help that the Hurricane ruined their momentum and mindset, but couldn't they at least have played somewhere else to maintain some level of fairness? Doesn't Bud's letter in the Houston paper at least indicate that he realizes in hindsight that he goofed up. And before you say it, I recognize the Cubs are a better team.

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

McLane could have just asked out before the storm and had more of a say in where the games were played. He fouled it up. End of story.

Steve, Cleveland

Not exactly what I was looking for but thanks. How will they be that good next year?

Keith Law

  (1:43 PM)

Cleveland's offense should bounce back next year - the loss of Blake is really no loss - but their rotation needs help. Lee will regress (I do like him, but he's not going to stay at this level), and Westbrook is a complete question mark. Carmona? Laffey? Sowers? Eek.

Victor (NYC)

klaw!! glad you're back this week. what would you do with the yankees OF in '09? would you let go of abreBOOOO? do you think austin jackson will be ready by july '09?

Keith Law

  (1:45 PM)

If you can get Abreu back for a year, yes. If he wants three or four, no. Jackson's probably more of a September '09 or early '10 guy. He takes some time to adjust to each promotion.

keith (Pa)

Good point about McLane. He is approaching Angelos level of worse owner.

Keith Law

  (1:46 PM)

Angelos > McLane. Angelos has given MacPhail significant autonomy to run baseball ops.

Greg (toronto)

Will JP finish out his contract (note: I suspect that injuries will again be used as an excuse to buying himself another year)? I swear this guy is the human cockroach.

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

The injuries will absolutely be an excuse - no maybe about it. It really depends on two factors: who the team president is, and whether revenues start to slip.

Jon (PA)

Are there pitchers who seem to perenually have lower ERAs than would be found based on their WHIPs? I'm thinking of someone like Doug Davis.

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

I don't look at WHIP, but I'd imagine any homer-prone pitcher would throw off that correlation.

Ted (Toronto)

JP is MLB's Matt Millen.

Keith Law

  (1:50 PM)

Way too harsh. The Jays are not a disaster, they're just poorly constructed, and still pretty dependent on players Ricciardi inherited. The Lions are like the world in The Road.

Raymond (Baltimore)

Tried the Trader Joes BBQ popped chips, and me and my g/f ate 4 bags in 3 nights.. If you were the O's this offseason would you attempt to get Tex, AJ Burnett or any significant major player. Or woudl you just play the kids and maybe sign a middle of the road gate keeper.

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

That's a good question. I would usually say "no" to whether a bad team should get involved in the premium FA market, but the O's are turning around pretty quickly, and could be competitive by '10 or more likely '11 ... it wouldn't be a bad idea to try to grab one of those guys so that he's already in house when the kids are ready, but I think the cost will be insanely high because of the other teams bidding for those players.

Eric G (Woodcliff Lake, NJ)

What does $5 fine mean? That the question was too dumb to respond to? Blaming Johan for having only 15 wins or claiming that Beltran isn't doing his part when he's 4th in MLB in win shares?

Keith Law

  (1:53 PM)

It's a fine for Klawbaiting. A few people who've been assessed fines have reported that they've donated their $5 to the Jimmy Fund. I actually owe $5 myself, since I fell for the bait in a recent chat.

Anders (Montreal)

KLaw - Travis Snider has been hitting well in the majors and turns 21 in February. Assuming he sticks in right, what's his ceiling?

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

Frequent All-Star, hits .280-.290 with big power and a solid OBP.

Dale (Chicago)

KLaw, how come no one metions Ryan Dempster for the CY award? The Cubs would not be anywhere close to where they are without him.

Keith Law

  (1:55 PM)

Not one of the five best starters in the NL this year.

Karen(Columbia SC)

Who would be a better choice in CF for the Yanks in 09 if they could obtain him:Matt Kemp or Nate McLouth?

Keith Law

  (1:55 PM)

Kemp.

Brian (Glen Ellyn, IL)

Thoughts on the bailout? You plan on going into it in detail on the blog?

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

I'm a big believer in forcing entities that take excessive risks to pay the price if those risks turn out poorly. Bailing them out will simply encourage more excessive risk-taking in the future. The lack of any punitive aspect in the program will be a deal-breaker for me.

Josh Chicago

Alexei Ramirez is pretty damn scrappy and he isn't white.

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

Your "s" key is stuck.

Jay, Melville

Keith,Keith, Please compare the abilities of Justin Smoak and Pedro Alvarez.What is their ETA for the majors?Thanks

Keith Law

  (1:58 PM)

I prefer Smoak - switch-hitter, more patient, better pitch recognition, plus glove at 1b. Both are quick movers, in the majors inside of 24 months.

Daniel (Boston, MA)

Someone working for BA recently said in a chat that Villalona only has "above-average power," but not enormous raw power. I was under the impression that this was why Villalona was such an intriguing prospect. Has he fallen in terms of raw power?

Keith Law

  (1:58 PM)

Might have been the difference between present power and future power.

Mike (Baltimore)

KLAW: "but the O's are turning around pretty quickly"...really? Don't tease me please. Weiters is en route to help and some pitching, but I still see no long term answers at 3B, SS, 1B and possibly 2B if they trade Roberts. What am I missing?

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

Wieters is an impact guy. Reimold is close and will be very good. Markakis is a definite breakout guy for 2009 (hey, he's better than Rios now ... who saw that coming?). They've started to add some good young pitching in the low minors, and I think Matusz will move up and contribute quickly. Future is definitely brighter there than it has been in ten years. Shortstop is the only one of those holes that will really be hard to fill.

Tim (Cleveland)

Keith - I have to think that if Joe Girardi pinch-runs for Chien-Ming Wang in Houston back in June, the Yankees are either in a playoff spot now or setting up for a winner-take-all in Boston at least this weekend. His loss had to be worth 6 wins, no?

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

Not six wins, maybe 3-4 given how awful Ponson is ... they would probably still be alive, but not leading and not going to win.

Phil, Washington, DC

Vince Scully said on Sunday that scouts were comparing Pedro Sandoval to Vlad. Is that anywhere close to a valid comparison?

Keith Law

  (2:01 PM)

Maybe in plate coverage? I mean, it's not a body comp. Sandoval is at least 2.3 Vlads from that age.

Matt (CT)

Is there a bigger Yankee hater then you? Apparently you haven't been following their minor league system, they've got the best/most minor league pitching prospects available. Insinuating Boston is even top 5 is absolutely ESPN homerism, stop kidding yourself.

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

Forget the $5. I'm fining you to a sentence of posting this comment on the soxprospects.com forum and sticking around to try to defend it. Best of luck to you.

Bob (Seattle)

What's the most you'd pay per person for a meal? And what's the best meal/restaurant you've ever been to?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

For just food? I've dropped $75 on sushi for myself. Best restaurant would probably be Mistral in Boston ... maybe Olives back in the day, but it's gone way downhill ... Craftsteak in Vegas was pretty amazing.

Yoyoma, cellist

How good is Steve Strasburg and what team does he help more...the M's or Nationals?

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

He helps everybody. Potential #1 starter, workhorse type with a ++ fastball, need to see more consistency with that breaking ball. I was on KJR last night and said he'd probably move through a system like Price did through Tampa's.

Chris NYC

What do you think of Phil Coke?

Keith Law

  (2:05 PM)

Maybe has some value out of the pen to the Yanks, but they need better than that in their rotation. LHP with good feel, decent CB, very avg fastball, no upside.

Anthony (NY)

Keith is a show-off.

Keith Law

  (2:05 PM)

Um, sure. You could at least wait until I start answering questions in other languages, though.

Michael (CT)

Even after Bucholz and Masterson, the Red Sox STILL are top 5 in terms of pitching prospects?!?!?!

Keith Law

  (2:06 PM)

Bowden, Kelly, Bard, Lentz, Hagadone and Britton when they return from TJ, Huntzinger (touch and feel type, but I like him), Price, Fife ... they've got a lot of depth even if there's only one big upside guy there (Kelly).

Keith Law

I dislike the Twins because their success is largely based on unquantifiable playing style. If I can't measure success, it probably doesn't really exist. Therefore the Whitesox will win the central.

Keith Law

  (2:07 PM)

$5. And it's not "playing style," it's just luck.

Oden (Motown)

Keith, I have a strange question but am hoping you could answer it.Could the Dbacks have named the ODawg as a PTBNL in the Dunn deal? That way CIN would still be getting a potential Type A FA (same as Dunn)? In that way the DBacks could possibly have sent a lesser package Cinci's way, yet the Reds would have still received prospect(s) plus the compensatory draft picks.I know you can't trade a player on the DL, but as a PTBNL, couldn't they say have activated Orlando Saturday and deal him the same day? Would this have been possible? Thanks!

Keith Law

  (2:09 PM)

Yes, two teams could certainly do that. I've wondered why a team wouldn't trade (in September) a pending FA to whom they wouldn't offer arbitration to a team that would offer arbitration. You would , in effect, be trading draft picks.

Jeff Philly

coke throws 95. avg?

Keith Law

  (2:09 PM)

Oh, come on. If you're going to lie, make it outstanding, like 114.

Clay (Normal, IL):

Klaw, love the chats! Who is the 3rd baseman of the future for the Cardinals? Wallace, Craig, or Freese?

Keith Law

  (2:10 PM)

I might take the field on that one. I've heard that they think Wallace ends up in LF for them, although I'm glad they're at least giving him a shot at third. Freese is a utility guy for me.

Gardy(MN)

Why the heck did we send our advance scouts to look at the Brewers, did they just want some good beer.

Keith Law

  (2:11 PM)

Is there actually good beer in Milwaukee? I'm going this weekend, but I assumed it was all pale big-brand American beers there.

Matt (Cambridge)

How does Lars Anderson project against guys like Smoak, T. Snider, Alvarez, and Villalona? How about a gut-feeling ranking?

Keith Law

  (2:12 PM)

Hm. Smoak, Anderson, Snider, Alvarez, Villalona.

Jay

Uh Keith. Since moving to the pen Coke has seen his velo rise a couple tix from 91-92 to 93-94 and he struck out Curtis Granderson on a 96mph fastball in his debut. That was on Detroit's FSN gun, the YES Gun AND on gameday. Ask one of your scouts, because Coke's FB is not def above average, if not plus.

Keith Law

  (2:13 PM)

I'm not wasting a lot of time on this. I've seen Coke pitch. He doesn't throw that hard. TV guns are just silly.

Justin (Boston, MA)

KLaw--you big into steak dinners? My friend is coming from Ireland, and I want to take him to a steakhouse in Boston that won't break the bank. Any suggestions?

Keith Law

  (2:14 PM)

Not a big steak guy, but the place I hear is the best is Abe and Louie's.

Brandon (Nashville)

You said in your last chat that the Gillespie call up was probably a verbal agreement when he signed. How often does this happen and who are some recent notables? What is the advantage to the team/player?

Keith Law

  (2:15 PM)

Detwiler, last year. Advantage to the player is that he's on the 40-man and has big league service, so if he gets hurt in spring training the next year, he has to be carried on a major-league DL, getting more service and more salary. Plus, if he's sent down the next spring, his minor-league salary will be higher. Benefit to the team is ... well ... um ... not there.

Kyle (Brockport, NY)

Does Phil Hughes' performance last night show us what he is capable of? Were you impressed? He had a nasty curve last night.

Keith Law

  (2:17 PM)

Spoke to a scout who was there - said Hughes showed good feel, no knockout pitch (he said he wouldn't have graded any pitch over 55, which is one grade above average), solid velo. If Hughes can be what he was last night for a full season, staying healthy, that's at least a strong #3.

Ryan V. (San Jose, CA)

"Is there actually good beer in Milwaukee? I'm going this weekend, but I assumed it was all pale big-brand American beers there." You should probably go ahead and start referring to the big-brand American beers as European beers, because that seems to be the trend. And the Europeans are welcome to them... (seriously, how can Europe be so infatuated with Budweiser when Guinness originates in their own backyard?!)

Keith Law

  (2:18 PM)

I'm with you. I'll trade them Anheuser-Busch for Guinness any day.

Jeff (Ann Arbor)

"Is there actually good beer in Milwaukee?" Um, hello. Ever heard of Pabst?

Keith Law

  (2:18 PM)

Your fine is to buy and drink a case of Old Mildred.

Aron (St. Lou)

Klaw love the Chats how about one more Cards question!!! Is Rasmus still a top 5 prospect or has his stock dropped with the Knee Injury? and whats your thoughts on his comparisons to would be MVP Sizmore?

Keith Law

  (2:19 PM)

Rasmus is still top 10 or so ... unless the knee injury is chronic, there's no reason to drop him other than the lost development time. Sizemore might be his ceiling, not his projection.

Josh (Boston, MA)

Abe and Louie's is wildly overrated...you're better off at Fleming's

Keith Law

  (2:20 PM)

Didn't want to recommend a chain.

Omar (Queens)

Quite frankly even I was shocked by my extension after I traded Milledge for a certain two automatic outs who need to be in platoons.

Keith Law

  (2:21 PM)

How would you platoon Schneider? Pair him with someone who can hit, then sit Schneider every day?

Randall (Milwaukee, WI)

Milwaukee's 2009 starting in-field will be...?? And is there any chance we sign CC??

Keith Law

  (2:22 PM)

I'm wondering if they'll try Weeks in CF before giving up on him, which would allow them to keep Hardy and play Escobar (Hall 3b, Fielder 1b). No chance on CC.

Brent (The O.C.)

Tell me the rumors of Kemp for Canu are just ridiculous, please? I actually like Blake DeWitt at 2B and Kemp still has so much more potential.

Keith Law

  (2:22 PM)

I think they're just rumors.

Victor (NYC)

Can you give some insight on the grading scale? If Hughes didn't grade above 55 on any pitch, what would, let's say, Joba's fastball/slider grade out as? 70/65?

Keith Law

  (2:22 PM)

70, 70.

Karl (Omaha, NE)

C'mon, Keith. When you're 155 games into the season..."luck" is no longer a term that can be used with a straight face.

Keith Law

  (2:23 PM)

Sure it is. The Cardinals were lucky to get into the playoffs after 162 games in 2006. See, I managed to annoy Twins fans AND Cardinals fans in one sentence!

Keith Law

  (2:23 PM)

I'm stashing these beer recs for Milwaukee - thanks. Might only have one shot to drink (after Saturday's game) while I'm there, though.

Hank (Boston)

Have a favorite beer or brewery?

Keith Law

  (2:24 PM)

Guinness. Harpoon, although I wish they'd try some darker styles like stout or porter. No more raspberry hefeweizens, please. That's like the Danielle Steele of beers.

Jimmy (Chicago)

Does Charlie Haeger ever become a regular starting pitcher in the big leagues?

Keith Law

  (2:24 PM)

Yes. Boy is he ever in the right place now.

Dan ( boston)

The non chain spot is Grill 23 in Boston, thats the best

Kyle (Brockport, NY)

Are there any pitchers today with a pitch that grades as an 80 on the scout scale?

Keith Law

  (2:25 PM)

Santana's changeup; maybe Shields' too. I haven't seen Lindstrom since 2006, but at the time he had 80 fastball velocity.

Tigers Fans(everywhere)

Fire Leyland?

Keith Law

  (2:26 PM)

I saw them in July and thought he was mailing it in like he did in Colorado - failing to pinch hit in obvious situations, leaving Verlander out there way too long.

Pagel,Wadsworth

Still need to know what your thoughts are on Travis Hafner? Will he bounce back next year or is he done?

Keith Law

  (2:26 PM)

If he's healthy next year, he'll be better, but the 2006 and earlier version is likely gone.

Jeff San Diego

Webb sinker = 80?

Keith Law

  (2:27 PM)

His fastball movement would be 75 or 80, but not the velocity. At least, that's the way I grade out fastballs.

Tom (Boston)

Grill 23 is better than Abe and Louie's. Have you seen Stolmy Pimental? Thoughts? The Sox seem to love him.

Keith Law

  (2:27 PM)

I do too - good changeup, avg fastball, lot of physical projection, some feel, breaking ball needs work.

Joe Westport, CT

Hey for the steak house question...go to the Oak Room...AMAZING. Keith, with the Yankees not signing there first round pick this year, what pick will they get next year? A supplemental? OR another first rounder?

Keith Law

  (2:28 PM)

I believe it's 28A for next year - they had 28 this year (or 27?), so they'll get a new pick between 28 and 29 next year. Plus they get their regular first-rounder unless they sign a Type A free agent (which they will).

Brandon, MN

Luck? Really? Twins were lucky to hit .310 RISP all year? Thats an incredibly ignorant comment to make...and I'm guessing you get paid to much to be ignorant.

Keith Law

  (2:30 PM)

Beyond the Box Score had a nice piece earlier this week on how the Twins' freakish BARISP - BA this year is probably not statistically significant. And yes, they have been absurdly lucky with men in scoring position. There's no evidence that this is a special skill that players or teams have. It's a variation on the clutch hitting argument, propagated by fans who want to believe their favorite player or team is special.

Ian - Pearl River, NY

You're great at assessing prospects and trades, but I'd like your opinion on baseball personnel. Who are some of the brightest/sharpest people in the game that you highly respect?

Keith Law

  (2:31 PM)

I won't answer this question, even though I'd like to. I'm concerned that I might put those people into uncomfortable situations where they might be accused of being sources for me (even though several are not), nor do I want to create a presumed obligation for them to help me in the future.

Brad (Tallahassee)

Any snarkiness on Steinbrenner's complaints about the playoffs?

Keith Law

  (2:32 PM)

Is the favored term now "gasbag" or "windbag?" It doesn't matter. I'm told Hal has the juice, and Hank just has the mouth.

Bobby, NY

The people you would mention read these transcripts?

Keith Law

  (2:32 PM)

Yes. I get calls, emails, txts from execs and scouts about my chats all the time. I doubt that's unusual for ESPN.com chatters.

Ryan (Pittsburgh)

As evidence for your Twins argument, Keith, you know what team has one of the best BARISP in the NL? The Pittsburgh Pirates.

Keith Law

  (2:33 PM)

No, Ryan, it's their playing style, and skill, and their scraptacularity.

Scott (D.C.)

You owe $5 to Brandon from Minnesota

Keith Law

  (2:33 PM)

No, he was serious. He's still posting about it.

Easton (IN)

What are your thoughts on Jason Motte? Converted catcher, 2 years of pitching, 97-99? He doesn't have anything but the gas, but he seems to be dominant even without a secondary pitch (albeit a small sample). How possible is it to be an above average reliever with only one plus pitch (even if it is plus-plus)?

Keith Law

  (2:35 PM)

I like him, especially since he's still fairly new to pitching. And maybe in the NL you can get away with just one pitch when it's like that. But before I tab him a future closer, we've got to see some progression in a second pitch. One-pitch closers right now include Rivera and sometimes Papelbon (QED, not always a good thing on that one).

jennnifer chicago

compare the potential of kershaw, schrezer and lincecum and there stuff and numbers please

Keith Law

  (2:36 PM)

Changing your user name doesn't make me more likely to answer, jeff/jennnifer/whoever. Scherzer's slightly behind the other two, and I've said before I see him as a reliever. Kershaw could be as good as Lincecum is now, but from the L side, three-pitch power pitchers with + curveballs. Lincecum's control improved in his early 20s, and I expect Kershaw's to do the same.

Brandon, MN

HAHA! Just said that your opinion is wrong, I can live with you being wrong...but can you live with you being wrong?

Keith Law

  (2:37 PM)

Yes, and someday, when I'm wrong, we can talk about it.

Dan , Wrigleyville

KL whats your thoughts on a cubs vs. redsox WS?

Keith Law

  (2:37 PM)

Even if Z and Harden are healthy at that point, I'd probably still take Boston, the Angels, or the Rays over the Cubs in the WS.

Trieu (Cambridge, MA)

The Mariners weren't lucky at all in 2007. That's why they added Bedard and are now having such a great season.

Keith Law

  (2:37 PM)

It's 162 games, Trieu. No one is lucky for 162 games.

mike az

keith in relation to jennifers question please throw Jarrod Parker in that mix b/c even though he is still a few years away he is a much better prospect than sherzer...Us dback fans need a bone thrown our way

Keith Law

  (2:39 PM)

If you told me as the GM of an expansion team I could take either Arizona arm, I'd take Parker.

Landon, Cali

One of your ESPN colleagues, Jim Callis, said right now he would put the Rangers over the A's as the best system in baseball because the Rangers are loaded at every position it seems. Agree?

Keith Law

  (2:41 PM)

Yes, although my main reasons would be a longer list of legitimate prospects and more top-shelf guys. Other than Inoa, I'm not sure there's an Oakland prospect who'd crack Texas' top 4. And I do like Cahill and Anderson - I just like Texas' best guys (Feliz and Smoak in particular) more.

Mike (New York)

Keith, rethinking your unofficial policy on long books? Any thoughts about giving Infinite Jest a try in memorium?

Keith Law

  (2:41 PM)

Maybe - I'm just getting into The Sot-Weed Factor now, which will be my third 700+ pager of the year.

Jake (OK)

Not a question. Just wanted to say I love the chats and the columns. Thanks KLaw!

Keith Law

  (2:42 PM)

Jake from Oklahoma: Not a Twins fan.

clayton (dallas)

Do you see Michael Maine's late hand break as worrisome for the future?

Keith Law

  (2:42 PM)

No.

dan ( mass)

The pole should have been enough for Pesky. If they retire Tek's number.....

Keith Law

  (2:42 PM)

But he HANDLES THE PITCHERS!!

Zach(milwaukee)

Keith, Can we be expecting some food reviews for Milwaukee on the dish soon?

Keith Law

  (2:43 PM)

Next week.

Ryan (Cedar Rapids, Ia)

Klaw, I think everyone seems to forget that Dempster has clearly been the Cubs best this year. The Cubs pitching top to bottom is the best in baseball, and I will put there offense up against anyones..u think they have no chance to beat the Bo Sox, Rays or the Angels? C'mon man, give us some hope!

Keith Law

  (2:44 PM)

I didn't say "no chance," but they would not be the favorites. Dempster's been the Cubs' best because he's been healthy all year.

Jason (SF)

Please answer a Giant question!! Could the Giants possibly compete next year? Great pitching and a couple good young hitters plus playing in the awful NL west equals a chance. Right?

Keith Law

  (2:44 PM)

No, their offense isn't there yet. Glad to see them turning more roster spots over to kids, though.

DAVE(MO)

What Cardinal prospects will make the big league next year? will any have an impact?

Keith Law

  (2:45 PM)

Rasmus might be the only new arrival next year, although Perez and Motte will still be rookies and will have an impact. Garcia would have, but he's out with TJ. Probably too soon for Wallace, given the positional question.

beefy

what is this "dish" and where is it?

Keith Law

  (2:46 PM)

meadowparty.com/blog. BTW, to Anthony from Dallas, looking for Disneyworld food suggestions, check the dish for answers.

Youseff (Cairo, Egypt)

Ryan Sweeney is a future all star right?

Keith Law

  (2:47 PM)

I'm not buying it. His chances are dimming almost to zero - he's a five o'clock hitter with no indication he'll bring that power into games.

Paul (San Francisco)

Keith, I love how the young guys and prospects are performing, but really, as long as Sabean is our GM, is there any hope? Please don't falsely raise my expectations, it was a tough fall the first time, I don't want to go through that again...

Keith Law

  (2:48 PM)

I've been as big a Sabean critic as any - seriously, 5/$55 for a fourth outfielder? - but if he's turned over a new leaf on the kids, I see no reason to usher him out the door. The litmus test is this winter: Does he focus on clearing room for kids and filling out roster spots with short-term solutions who won't block prospects, or does he lead another abortive charge for contention?

Brandon (Nashville)

Jason Heyward's potential and ceiling?

Keith Law

  (2:49 PM)

Perennial All-Star. Impact avg and power bat in RF with good plate discipline and plus defense.

John ( Illinois )

Speaking of Weeks, how much longer before you place him in your book under "bust"?

Keith Law

  (2:49 PM)

Probably one more year. He might be a change of scenery guy, or just need to get off 2b.

Ryan (MN)

I'm with Jake from OK. Some objective analysis makes me appreciate what the Twins are doing this year even more. Sure it's a lot of luck, but who says you can't enjoy it?

Keith Law

  (2:50 PM)

Some fans take comments like mine about "luck" as judgments on their team's character. I don't get that.

Luck

Measure me.

Keith Law

  (2:51 PM)

I'm not saying you don't exist (luck, clutch hitting, scrappiness), but given how much I can measure here, I'm not paying extra for you. If someone else is willing to pay for you, they can be my guest.

Jack (Toronto)

Heyward or Vitters?

Keith Law

  (2:52 PM)

Heyward. I like Vitters too, but Heyward is more advanced as a hitter. Vitters - someone asked earlier, never got to it - has a good eye, great swing, should make lots of contact, but I think he's less polished a 3b than I had him as at the time of his draft, and he's going to take longer than Heyward to reach the majors.

The Dude (SF)

Have I been banished? ETA on Bumgarner? Alderson?

Keith Law

  (2:52 PM)

Alderson 2010. Maybe even late 2009. Bumgarner half a year to one year behind.

Luck

If you don't sign me, someone else will. I am new latest moneyball skill Billy Beane will look for because other teams undervalue me.

Keith Law

  (2:53 PM)

That's the comment of the day.

Lou (NYC)

Serious Twins question. How many games do you think they lost this year due to playing guys like Livan, Lamb and Craig Monroe. Is it negligible or is this keeping Juan Castro instead of promoting Jason Bartlett part 2?

Keith Law

  (2:54 PM)

No, I think it's significant, as is the point I made two weeks ago about them being better off if they'd kept Santana rather than taking the Mets' offer. If they lose this division, it's going to be by a game or two, and there's no question that the aggregate value of all of their personnel decisions of the last ten months add up to more than two fewer wins.

Hank (Dallas)

Keith, who do you think is better longterm, Holland or Feliz?

Keith Law

  (2:54 PM)

Feliz.

Jon (denzer, wi)

Buy or sell Alcides Escobar's ability to hit in the big leagues?

Keith Law

  (2:54 PM)

I think he'll hit, but I don't see why he's being tabbed a potential superstar.

Sam (San Jose, CA)

Is a Hughes for Votto trade fair? Who wins?

Keith Law

  (2:54 PM)

No, I'd much rather have Hughes.

Sean (Seattle)

Keith: Which Mariner prospects should I be excited about: Clement, Balentin, Morrow, Triunfel... anyone else? Valbuena? Moore?

Keith Law

  (2:55 PM)

Balentien's the one I'd be less excited about ... I think he's a bit of a tease. How about Tuiasosopo? Aumont? Juan Ramirez?

Ryan

You know what they say, better lucky than good.

Keith Law

  (2:55 PM)

I'd rather be good and hope to get lucky, because even if I'm lucky, ain't no way I can hope to be good.

Keith Law

  (2:56 PM)

Thanks for all the questions - 2500+ this week - and the Milwaukee recs - all 2490 of them. I'll be back next Thursday.