Fantasy Baseball w/Brendan Roberts
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Brendan Roberts (11:01 AM)
Hello, everyone! Headed to a little baseball OT. Please note: We're keeping this chat to baseball, in what could possibly be our last baseball chat for quite some time. All of our remaining chats -- two per -- this week will be devoted to football, I believe, so I'm sure you football chatters will get your fill.
Brendan Roberts (11:01 AM)
Oh, and I move to football beginning next week, too, but I move to Tuesday afternoons as part of a shakeup.
Brendan Roberts (11:01 AM)
Anyway, let's get underway with some baseball questions.
Jim (DC)
Hi Brendan- Has it been announced who would start on Tuesday if the Twins need to play Chicago? Thanks!
Brendan Roberts (11:04 AM)
Good question. Next up on the schedule is John Danks, and I don't know why the White Sox would stray from that plan, no matter how bad he was in his last start.
Brendan Roberts (11:05 AM)
Sorry for the delay there, guys ... the chat is now being promoted correctly on the ESPN Fantasy baseball page.
Ryan (Minneapolis MN)
NEED HELP!! Tied for 1st place, with a dogfight for OPS. Do i start Konerko today or play it safe and sit him? I could stand to lose 2 points if he has an O-fer. My OPS = 0.8472, next two teams have 0.8469 and 0.8465. What to do?! Thanks for your help!
Brendan Roberts (11:07 AM)
Considering it's a tie, and considering that Konerko is actually hitting, I say you go for it ... unless there is absolutely no way you can get an edge in the other categories. If it's truly OPS that matters here, and you can't reach the guy above you, you have to sit Konerko. But my guess is there has to be some potential gain by playing him, too.
Ryan (PA)
Now that the season is over I need to make my keeper picks. I keep my entire starting lineup. Who would you keep at these positions? Kendrick or Alexei at 2B? Ethier or Burrell in the OF? Parra or Hughes at SP? Thanks
Brendan Roberts (11:09 AM)
Yup, some pretty close ones here, and my votes indicate some personal preferences, but I'd say Alexei at 2B (great ballpark, becoming five-tool player), Ethier in the OF (more well-rounded, I think Burrell is gone from Philly) and, whew, probably Hughes at SP. I still think he has tremendous upside and will show it soon.
SteveFitz (Cicero, IL)
We're expecting rain here in Chicago today. What happens if there's a rain out today?
Brendan Roberts (11:12 AM)
Yeah, rain forecasted for Chicago ... but I think the teams will find a way to play this, even if they must wait all night. But if for some reason they can't, everything just gets moved back yet another day, I believe, and we could even have a situation where that game is being played the same day as playoff games. Just that the winner would not play until the following day. I believe that's the case, but not sure that has been discussed yet.
Chris (LA,CA)
Johnny Damon a good keeper, or do you see his numbers dropping significantly next year? Thanks Brendan.
Brendan Roberts (11:15 AM)
Heck, I thought they'd drop THIS year, but he had a darned good season. Unfortunately, I just can't see him continuing to run like he did last season. Sure, good keeper if you have more than, say, 4 keepers, but I wouldn't value him over an in-his-prime productive outfielder. After all, Johnny D turns 35 here in about a month and has a lot of mileage.
Mike (Indy)
Better keeper for next year in a points only league. Oswalt, Joba or Burnett? Thanks!
Brendan Roberts (11:16 AM)
Oh, good question, and it kinda depends upon where Burnett ends up (which I have NO idea about right now). Points league? Given all the innings and K's, and it's obvious he still has "it," I'd probably go with Oswalt. He can be a points-league horse when he's on ... as you well know.
JB (SC)
Brendan, I won my first fantasy championship last night in a H2H league. I won 10-0. I just wanted to thank you and everyone at ESPN for helping me bring the championship home!
Brendan Roberts (11:17 AM)
That's great to hear, JB. Thanks for passing that along, but that's all you. You pulled the strings. Nice job!
Greg (Syracuse)
Brendan, keeper question: I can keep 2 of the following 4 in a 13 team keeper league, who goes: CB Young, Delmon Young, Justin Upton and Elijah Dukes. Thanks
Brendan Roberts (11:20 AM)
Hmm, CB Young would definitely be my first choice, then it's between Delmon and Upton. I like Delmon slightly better for next year, but it's tough to give up a 20-year-old talent like Justin Upton. He could be a staple of your lineup for many years to come. I'd say him.
Bill (Syracuse)
I have Huston Street under a contract in a league, will he be traded elsewhere and be a closer?
Brendan Roberts (11:21 AM)
That's the plan (for him to be traded), and the A's have been moving along with it for months now. Billy Beane is good about getting deals done, so I fully expect him to be traded. Where? I don't know, but I suspect a team without a reliable closer will be the one who pays what Beane wants.
Jack (NJ)
who would you rather have as your catcher in 2009 (keeper league but not necessarily a keeper question): Wieters, Teagarden, or Iannetta?
Brendan Roberts (11:23 AM)
If choosing now, I'd say Teagarden. I actually like Wieters' offensive upside more, but you can't be sure right now he'll start with the big club next April. You do have that assurance, for the most part, with Teagarden, the way everyone is talking, and he has greater upside (and similar ballpark) to Iannetta.
Joe (DC)
Would you keep Rafael Furcal in a 14 team, 10 keeper league? Injury risk is obvious, but it's going to be difficult to find even a passable SS during the draft...
Brendan Roberts (11:25 AM)
Yeah, if there are 10 keepers and 14 teams, I think you're safe in keeping him. I have doubts about that back, but at least he'll be motivated to bounce back (wherever he is), and you're right, his upside and position are such that it'd be too tough to let him go.
David (Hollywood, FL)
If it comes down to a playoff between Min.,and CWS will the points count in an ESPN roto league? The term "Play IN" has me a little confused.
Brendan Roberts (11:26 AM)
The "play in" game means the one-game series that would result if the Sox win today. And yes, they would count.
Ryan (PA)
Thanks for your answer. I sort of have a follow up question. I hear Alexei might be moving to SS. I already have Hanley at SS. Would you still keep Alexei with the risk of him moving or Kendrick who will be a definite 2B in the future?
Brendan Roberts (11:27 AM)
I believe O-Cab has another year (or more) left in Chicago, and he's a good fielder, so I doubt a defensive move is in Alexei's near future. Either way, I don't think it's a reason not to keep him.
Pete (Philly)
Should Verlander be kept in a 12 team keeper league 5x5 H2H (keep up to 10)?
Brendan Roberts (11:29 AM)
I'm sure somebody would jump up and say yes, but looking at his numbers, and the fact that he was healthy and just pitched terribly, I don't think he's going to be in demand enough for you to warrant keeping him in that setup. Unless your team is very weak, which I doubt. I think you can get him back next spring, and if not, then there are a handful of players of his ilk (good upside, bad '08 season).
Harry (Greenville, SC)
For all the league championship... I have a 1pt lead overall and have to play Inge today, due not having a backup catcher. I lead the guy behind me in BA by .00014. I also have M. Ordonez, but I have a backup and can bench him. The question is do I play Mags? If Inge goes 0-4, I lose. 0-3 or better, and I win. By playing Mags, do I mitigate the risk at all or just increase it?
Brendan Roberts (11:32 AM)
It's simple numbers, really. Mags is hitting .317. As well as you might have done this season in BA, I doubt it's better than that. So by shear mathematics, he stands to help you, even if it's with his typical 1-for-3 and a walk. So yes, I'd start him ... and then cross my fingers on Inge. Just by shear math, he stands to HURT you. But you know that.
Mike (Long Island)
Very similar to the Verlander question above...keep CBY in the same format?
Brendan Roberts (11:33 AM)
Yes, I would. Nice four-category upside there.
Ryan (PA)
Do you see Clement catching over the next couple seasons or will he become a full time DH or move to 1B?
Brendan Roberts (11:34 AM)
I think Jeff Clement will stay at catcher for the next few seasons, but rotate in at DH and 1B, too. Kinda like V-Mart. So, in a word, I think he makes for a good keeper.
Jack (SF)
Morrow, Volquez, Price upside for next year? Worthy keepers in a deep league?
Brendan Roberts (11:36 AM)
All worthy keepers in a deep league ... although I'm not Morrow has quite the "market demand" just yet. But all three have major upside next year, and when we're talking keepers, I don't think you could let Price go. Heck, I have him in a league in which we keep only three guys, and I just won the title, and I'm seriously thinking about keeping him.
Ted (Iowa)
Is Lincecum, Hamels and Johan just about the most loaded pitcher staff where you can retain 3 pitchers max?
Brendan Roberts (11:36 AM)
Yeah, that's pretty good ... now if you could just get Cliff Lee .......
Chris (Philly)
Better keeper for next year, Headley, Milledge or M.Young? Also for pitchers, Danks or J.Johnson? Thanks
Brendan Roberts (11:39 AM)
Considering the relative gap between the top guys and lower-level guys at his position (SS), I'd have to say Young. I don't think Headley hits (at least for power) for a few years, and Milledge has little lineup support. For pitchers, it's kind of a toss-up. Danks will be in more demand (and I'd probably say him), but I think Johnson is in for the better '09 season, so if you have a wild bug ...
Orlando (I won't be back in Chicago)
Orlando is a free agent after the year. The talk in the papers is that Alexi will be the starting SS and they will target Orlando Hudson for 2b, but we seen how Kenny's targets worked out this year...
Brendan Roberts (11:41 AM)
A couple of you wrote in regarding this, and I thank you. I had read rumors to that effect, but I guess I just didn't see it happening. Sounds like it's closer to happening there in CHicago than I realized. Thanks, guys. (I'd still keep Alexei over Kendrick, by the way.)
Carlo (Omaha,NE)
Where do you see Price being drafted in keeper leagues next year? I currently have him, but do not think he warrants a keep over Johan, Hamels, Lincecum. Thanks!
Brendan Roberts (11:43 AM)
Uh, no he doesn't, Carlo. Where will he be drafted in keeper leagues? Obviously depends on what role they're using him at in spring training, but I could see him going, oh, maybe fourth or fifth round in mixed leagues. He doesn't warrant an early-round pick, but right after the first three money players, he'll be sought after.
Joe (Baltimore)
Follow up on Milledge, doesn't his speed outweigh lineup concerns? Also, is he a better keeper than Adam Jones? Would you keep either/both in a deep league?
Brendan Roberts (11:46 AM)
Looking at his build and scouting report, I don't see many more than the 24 steals he had this year. I've heard people think aloud that he's in for a 40-steal season down the road, but I just don't see it from him. 20 homers, maybe 30 steals, but a .275 average, and fewer runs than he deserves because he plays for the Nats. Guess I'm just not sold on Milledge yet ... but I do like him much more than Jones, a similar player. At least Milledge has shown steals and homer potential, and some consistency.
Mike (tampa)
Pick for today? If you take Detroit, pick for tomorrow?
Brendan Roberts (11:47 AM)
Just having fun here, but Sox pound Freddy Garcia today, then Blackburn and the Twins beat the Sox (again) tomorrow.
Chris (St. Louis)
Please choose one keeper for me - Kemp at $23, Markakis at $21 or Rios at $14. Thanks.
Brendan Roberts (11:48 AM)
Boy, they're close enough that that $14 Rios seems to stick out. It seems he's been around forever, but realize that he's still only 27 years old.
Mike (indy)
Speaking of Cliff Lee....Do you really think he'll repeat his numbers (Or anything close to them) next year?
Brendan Roberts (11:49 AM)
Nah, no way he repeats this year's numbers, but I saw enough in the outings I saw him pitch, including one live and close up, that I think he'll reach the "anything close to them" level. Absolutely.
Dan (Iowa)
AL only i keep 5 im keeping Cliff Lee, Kinsler,Ichiro, and Ortiz. Is David Price worth keeping over Carlos Quintein, Johnny Damon, or Krod? Just won the championship!
Brendan Roberts (11:51 AM)
Congrats, Dan! Do you have to decide this now? Because if K-Rod were for sure back in the AL (and specifically with the Angels), he'd be my choice. After that, I'd probably say Quentin over the field, probably with Price behind him. I think Quentin has solidified himself as a first-three-round pick.
Brian (Chicago)
Maybe the Twins beat the Sox tomorrow, but they were only 2-7 at the Cell this year and Blackburn had a 7.20 ERA in three starts against the Sox on the road this year...If the game was in the Metrodome, the Twins would win for sure, but Sox have an advantage at home.
Brendan Roberts (11:51 AM)
Good points, Brian, which is why I advertise them to you all.
Kevin (Dallas)
In a deep league, is Pablo Sandoval worth holding onto for next year at C?
Brendan Roberts (11:52 AM)
In a deep league, yes he is. It sounds like he was just up to get some work, but I'm hearing they're now counting on him next year. That could change, and the team could always send him down to learn a new position or something, but he's looking like the real deal.
Chris (Philly)
Quick follow up to the keeper question: would you keep J.Johnson over Scherzer and/or Price? Thanks
Brendan Roberts (11:54 AM)
I wouldn't. Josh Johnson has nice upside, but after TJ surgery, I just can't see him having the upside a Price or Scherzer have. In fact, I like both young pitchers more.
Chris (Orlando)
Hey Brendan, PICK 3 KEEPERS...Wang (8th rd), Loney (10th rd), J Shields (11th rd), Gallardo (12th rd), Garza (19th rd) and Soria (20th rd)...THANKS
Brendan Roberts (11:55 AM)
Assuming this is a 5x5 league ... Soria (safe as closer), Gallardo (his recovery has gone smoothly) and probably Garza. I like Shields more, but that's a pretty big bargain for a guy who was considered can't-miss.
Lee (St Louis)
Do you think the Rays will make the playoffs next year?
Brendan Roberts (11:56 AM)
I do. I think they have the "trap set for bear" and will have a good shot for years to come. Just think about when David Price establishes himself, and if Rocco Baldelli can play 120-130 games, and ...
Tim (Port St Lucie)
What do I do with players like Crede and Sheets? Do they get over there injuries? Do I keep them cheap and hope for the best?
Brendan Roberts (11:58 AM)
Obviously, you have to differentiate between the quality of the players themselves. Crede you can throw back. Seriously back problems again have clouded his future, and it sounds the Sox are ready to move on without him. Sheets? Well, it's obvious he can stay semi-healthy when motivated by a big contract ... but what about after he signs it? I have doubts as to whether he'll make 28-plus starts next year, but at least you know he can still pitch effectively. Tough call there, but I'd lean toward keeping him, not knowing your other options.
bill (boston)
BB- do you look at position scarcity when doing keepers? i have H-ram, Utley, and Sizemore....should i keep Martin over any of those three? thanks!
Brendan Roberts (12:00 PM)
I look at position scarcity once I get by, say, the top 60 keepers or so. Those three guys aren't only in the top 60, they're probably all three in the top 20. I wouldn't overthink position scarcity here ... you're starting with three keeper selections.
JJ (Oakland)
Is Ryan Braun still a keeper even with his loss eligibility at third?
Brendan Roberts (12:02 PM)
Most definitely he is. Not only is he one of the league's best hitters, but he's also good for double-digit steals, too. Also, if you think about it, third base/corner infielder might be deeper these days than the outfield. He might be a better keeper BECAUSE he's an outfielder. One more, guys.
Rob (NY)
Hey Brendan where's the love? I never seem to be able to get a question through! What do you expect out of Cueto, Buchholz and Volstad next year? Are any keeper worthy? Thanks
Brendan Roberts (12:05 PM)
I got ya this time, Rob. I think Cueto is in for a fine 2009 season. I worry about injury more than I worry about effectiveness, honestly. But I believe he could have a Volquez-like 2009 season. Buchholz, I'm not so sure about. Obviously has talent, but he's fighting some mental demons right now, and I don't think an offseason will heal them. Some fine starts in 2009, but enough clunkers to make him a risk. And Volstad will have a solid, but not outstanding season. He doesn't K enough guys to really pull a Cliff Lee next season, but he'll be one of those guys you have on your squad and start five of six weeks, only sitting him when he has one start in an unfavorable spot. So, like a No. 3 fantasy pitcher.
Brendan Roberts (12:06 PM)
All right, guys, I have to run. Time to move along to football ... we have a lot of good stuff coming out this week. But ...
Brendan Roberts (12:06 PM)
... considering the quality of these baseball keeper questions, I'm going to lobby to have another baseball chat or two, even if not from me. You guys asked some fantastic questions today, and I'm sorry I couldn't hit 'em all.
Brendan Roberts (12:06 PM)
Be well, everyone!
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