Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football.
KC -- two things. First did you catch FNL last night? I think it is back to it's old good form! What did you think? Second you were going to do the metrics for the Denver defense this past week and wanted me to ask you again this week... so... will you spill your guts for me?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Travis, I can't say that I caught FNL last night. This time of year I'm watching football pretty much exclusively and this year the only other thing I'm fitting it in is some political coverage. I also wasn't able to get to the Broncos just yet (busy week article wise) but they are on the list of games to break down tonight or tomorrow.
Dee (Greenville, NC)
Definitely wasn't a great game by Rivers against the Raiders. I noticed the Raiders blitzed a lot more than I have seen any team blitz Rivers this year and it was effective at times, although one of his picks was just a bad pass. Just wanted your thoughts about his game because I always come up here when he had a good game, so I'm here for the bad ones as well.....ironically enough his worst 2 games are the ones the Chargers won.
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I have to say that although Rivers is doing well in a number of areas, his bad decision percentages are not something to write home about. He's making them at a 4.2% pace, which is the fifth highest in the league. Oakland accounted for two of them so he did have issues last Sunday.
where do we begin for the rams, is it the O line or D line?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
I'd say O line first, although I do have to point out that Chris Long hasn't been what they expected. I just broke down one of his games and he did a mediocre job against the run.
KC, Do you know that Brett Favre has only 1 losing season as a starting QB! And that was in 2005(4-12). He had 2 8-8 seasons and the rest were 9-7 and better. Do you think he is the best QB to ever play the game? His record as a starter is 162-95 and 12-10 in playoffs!
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Best QB ever? I don't think so. The same record issue (or at least a similar one) could be made for Montana, Marino and Elway among others.
Hey KC, my dad did a chat here a few weeks ago. Maybe you should check the transcript. I'm playing out of position!
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
I mean no offense to Howie but it does show up in his son's performance. He's not cut out to be a DE.
Michael (Syracuse, NY)
KC, thanks as always for the insights...with the palace revolution (palace suppression?) in Oakland, do you foresee a difference in gameplan for the Raiders, and how might that spell out for the players? Also, is using Russell as a "West Coast" QB completely ignoring his strengths (arm) and moving towards his weaknesses? Seems similar to the failed Vick experiment. Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
The positive about the Raiders coaching change is that they went from a scheme coach to a personnel coach. I defined those terms in detail in my book Blindsided but the nutshell explanation is scheme coaches try to win with playcalling and personnel coaches try to win with physical talent. The Raiders organization is personnel based in their scouting so Cable should be a better fit all around than Kiffin. Regarding Russell, check out my Insider article this week. He's doing quite well according to the metrics.
Dee (Greenville, NC)
I'm curious about your bad decision percentages. Do you factor in the quality of talent around a QB...for instance having a great WR makes decisions easier to make because they give you a bigger window to throw in versus ordinary WR that you have to make tougher decisions on based on their ability to get separation from the secondary. What goes into your equation for figuring out bad decision percentages?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
A QB is debited with a bad decision if he makes a mistake (i.e. stare, force a pass into coverage, etc.) that leads to either an interception or a near interception. That is the sole criterion. If there isn't a pick/near pick, no bad decision is debited. The talent level surrounding the QB can affect his bad decision percentages but I don't exclude/include any plays because of the talent.
KC, How good have the Bills Trent Edwards metrics been so far this season? And thanks for that whooping you put on me in FF a couple weeks ago!
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Edwards is another QB I covered in the Insider article. His bad decision percentage is excellent and he's trying his share of vertical passes. He's probably a better fit for the Bills new scheme than Losman would be.
KC, I have a very important fantasy question I can't get answered. In my league that starts 3 WRs, should I stick with Favre at QB and go with Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, and Cotchery at WR or trade Jennings straight up for Peyton? Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Bob, I think Peyton is going to get better every week (this week should be the start of that) but Favre should do just as well. There isn't enough upside there to make the trade so keep Jennings, as he will be a big point producer as long as Rodgers' shoulder injury isn't worse than is being reported.
Lane (Kukuihaele, HI)
Aloha KC. I've got a big chat league matchup this weekend. I'm not sure who to start this weekend at QB- McNabb or Cassel.
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
I assume we are facing off this week! If that's the case, I'd strongly suggest starting Cassel!
KC, should I start Anthony Gonzalez or Warrick Dunn this weekend in the flex position?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Gonzalez all the way. Houston's secondary is doing a terrible job all around and Indy's offense should do a lot better now that they are healthy and have had a week's worth of rest.
Fantasy and Metrics all wrapped up in one question!! What are Winfield and Griffen's metrics? Want to start Moore this week, but if he lines up against Winfield could spell a bad game. But against Griffen, could be a big game. Metrics support that?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Winfield is having a much better season than Griffin (2.9 YPA versus 7.4) but don't forget that NO moves their receivers around a ton. Minnesota won't have Winfield follow Moore around, so definitely get him in your lineup.
Lane drafted an Eagle?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Yeah, isn't that amazing!
ESPN is reporting that Warren Sapp has said "and anyone that calls me, I tell them do not go anywhere near Oakland" because of Al Davis. Can we nominate Warren for an ESPY for "Well, duh" moment of the year?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
I'd actually disagree with Sapp. Don't forget that the Raiders made the Super Bowl just a few years ago. That's more than Dallas, San Diego and Green Bay can say and yet those are the media darlings. I know the Raiders record has been abysmal of late but if Al finds the right coach, he's still shown his organization is capable of building a Super Bowl contender talent-wise.
TONY (SALEM OREGON)
hey KC, quick one here, why isnt spiking the ball considered intentional grounding?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Because it isn't being done to avoid a sack.
KC, What are the metrics for the Buffalo Bills CB's? And how do you see them doing vs the Cardinals this weekend?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Greer, McGee and Youboty all have YPAs of 6.2 or less, so they are doing great in that aspect. I'd expect them to have some issues with Fitz and Boldin but if Boldin is out, I'd expect the Bills to win this game (which they might do even if he is in).
TONY (KEIZER, OREGON)
the rule says he has to be outside the tackles to be able to throw the ball away, spiking the ball is between the tackles, this rule is a joke and needs to be taken out of football
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
OK, not to belabor this point but the intentional grounding rule says the QB has to be avoiding a sack in order for it to be a penalty. That obviously isn't the case with the spike and is why that play is allowed.
KC, Some how I'm 2-2 in our league with a terrible team. Do you think Benson is worth a pickup and drop Watson?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
I just can't see doing that because of Benson's history. Keep the somewhat proven commodity of Watson.
KC, Give me your opinion on the play of the Bills Jason Peters so far?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Simply awful. He has given up sacks and is not blocking well at the point of attack. He is nowhere near what he was a couple of seasons ago.
Moses Chacko (Amtrust)
KC, quick fantasy question. What in the heck is going on with the Browns offense?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
I hate to put it all on the QB but I think that Derek Anderson is a lot of why they are off of their game. He just isn't playing with the moxie he did last year.
What do you make of Bears rookie Matt Forte?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Two things on Forte. First, he's getting yards despite not getting good blocking, as the Bears O line is losing more than its share of POA blocks. Second, he's carried the ball nearly 100 times so far this year. Chicago needs to give him a break or he'll wear out by season's end.
Ben (Tempe, AZ)
Do you take fantasy questions? I need to fill in a RB spot due to a bye. Would you play L Mclain or M Moore? Who is going to get more carries??
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Tough call there but I'd go with Moore.
How do you think the Dolphins o-line matches up against the chargers?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
It depends on which Miami O line shows up, the one that played in NE or the one that played the first two games of the year. Jake Long did a terrible job in those first couple of games but had a much better showing against NE. I'd lean towards the better blocking team showing up but I want to see it two weeks in a row before I believe its the long-term performance level for that group.
So dropping DA for Campbell was a smart move? Needed someone in case Rodgers can't go.
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Campbell probably won't be a dominant fantasy QB but as well as he has been playing (and he was the lead paragraph in this week's Insider article on young QBs), he'll be a 10-14 point guy every week. You can't say that for Anderson so he is a better insurance policy.
Jim (Mt. Pleasant, IA)
Railing on Chris Long after 4 games? Come on, give the rookies a chance. I though Long looked better last week with Little back on the other side.
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
It's not that Long played badly all of the time, as he did make some plays. There were just too many plays where he was getting pushed out of the POA. The talent is obviously there but the consistency is lacking at this point.
GM of the Phightin' Franklins (Philly)
At 2-2, I am waiting in the weeds to pounce. Feeling really good about the end of the season. You have been warned... all of you.
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
I do have to say that all of the chat leagues are looking quite competitive right now. I'm 8-4 overall but I'm not resting on my laurels for one minute, so you won't be sneaking up on me!
What's going on with Roy Williams? Are the Lions even making an effort to get him the ball, or is he just going thru the motions? Pick one for week 5: Reggie Brown, Chad Johnson, Matt Jones? Thanks KC!
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
I think the Williams situation is multi layered. He's not happy about being 1A instead of a pure #1 and the Lions are trying to show him up a bit. I'd pick Brown out of that group (just can't trust Johnson yet).
GM of the Phightin' Franklins (philly)
No offense KC, but I beat you already (week 1). Bring on the Kukuihaele Hawaiians.
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
No offense taken! And I do remember that loss. That's why I was saying I'm not going to let you sneak up on me!
Brandon Lloyd was orignally labeled as a big-play receiver who never lived up to his potential. What do the metrics say about his season thus far?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
A lot of the same. He had the big game a couple of weeks ago and beat Ronde Barber to do so. That boded well for him but of course he gets hurt the next week. He's just not shown he can handle NFL-level punishment on a consistent basis.
Hate to burst your bubble philly, but your division is full of greek gods, eagles are gunna finish 3rd or 4th...whos your nfc east pick KC?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Right now I'd go with the G-Men. Their offensive line is playing great. Their defense is not putting up bad decisions anywhere near their 2007 pace (when they led the league) but I expect that to pick up as the season progresses.
So does Lloyd's game against Ronde mean that Ronde is basically done, or was that just a mirage?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Ronde has a 13.9 YPA right now, so I'd lean more towards Lloyd's performance saying something about Ronde hitting the wall than Lloyd being a great player.
Glad to see you admit you were wrong about DA. I'm not a Quinn homer, but I did not see the logic in not trading DA for 1st rounder last April.
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
I had DA as a 65-35 boom-bust candidate for 2008. There were plenty of things to like about him but the things to not like were just as strong. Had he been with team with lower expectations, I have to wonder if he might not have cracked under the pressure like he did with the playoff aspirations everyone was putting on the Browns this year.
Jared Allen was a beast last year, but seems relatively quiet so far. Did KC win this trade?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
I'd say it's too early to tell. I would also point out that Allen has done a superb job against the run. If the offense could ever give the D a lead that would let Allen tee off, I'd bet he would start showcasing his pass rush skills.
Do you think the Eagles with 2 1st rd picks will try and make a trade for Roy Williams?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Roy Williams stock is dropping with every week that goes by. I see no reason Philly should give Detroit a #1 pick for a strugging player, especially since no one else will be in the bidding war (or at least they won't be willing to bid that high).
To clarify, we all know I'm a Bills fan...but its a joke to say the Birds dont have a shot at the division. They lost to Chicago in Chicago without Westbrook, two top WRs, and Sean Andrews...Oh, I forgot LJ Smith. Some people in this chat dont do homework.
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Xander, I agree that Philly absolutely has a shot at this division as long as they can keep McNabb and Westbrook healthy.
Randy (St. Paul)
...but Jared Allen never had a lead in KC either...
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
I'd agree with that for the last year he was there but for most of the years before that KC had a very good offense.
How much of Jake Long's improvement in week 3 do you credit to the "Wildcat" and the use of the unbalanced line by Miami? Looked to me like he was having his way with Green, Seymour, Warren no matter where he lined up.
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
Jake was on the strong side of the unbalanced line, so that probably helped him. The Wildcat also spread the Pats around and their big guys don't play as well in space. I just didn't expect a gimmick alignment to be necessary for Long to be a dominant run blocker. They need him to do that at left tackle as well.
Trent Edwards will lead the Buffalo Bills to the SuperBowl and WIN it this season? Oh YEAH
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
This is the weekly obligatory Bills post. Can't go through a chat without a Bills fan shout out (that's called a cheap pop in pro wrestling).
Why do fans always have to bring up players being hurt as the reason why their team lost? Well, if Tommie Harris and Chris Williams and Brandon McGowan and....
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Too true. I'd be more peeved that Schobel didn't block the backside on that final goal line play. I didn't break down the tape but on the initial view it looked like he was supposed to get that block. I'm not saying it would have been a TD if he makes the block but by not making it, the play was certainly doomed to failure.
Lane (Kukuihaele, HI)
Call National Security!!! The pollution in Philly has reached Buffalo and is making Bills fans delusional.
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
Lane, they could be 1-3 right now and Bills fans would still be touting them for a playoff berth. They are the definition of true believers.
TONY (KEIZER, OREGON)
wait a minute here, im a Lions fan and the only reason they lose is because they suck,,,has nothing to do with injuries
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
Spoken like a true Lions fan! They have no illusions about their team. 30+ years with Russ Thomas and Matt Millen will do that do you.
John (Lancaster, PA)
KC,are you keeping metrics on the trash talk in your fantasy leagues? So far, it is non existent in League #3, I am sorry to say.
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
I personally haven't been able to dabble in much league trash talk (it's hard enough to get in time to manage the teams) but you are right that the banter hasn't been there so far. I guess everyone's taking a serious approach.
The Eagle's brought me into block? I want to be a pass catcher.
KC Joyner (5:03 PM)
They've got LJ Smith for that. Well, I've got to get back in the tape room so I'm going to hit the road. I hope to see you all here next week!
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