Keith Law

  (10:59 AM)

This will be a brief chat today, because I'm in Arizona and have to head to the ballpark to try to catch at least some of BP.

Frank (NYC)

I'm so sick of the Red Sox getting all the calls! Varitek dropped the ball, Willits should be safe!

Keith Law

  (10:59 AM)

No. He had the ball at the moment of the tag. End of story. I've always thought California whines were overrated anyway.

Mike(Utica,NY)

Joe Mauer or Matt Wieters in 5 years?

Keith Law

  (11:00 AM)

I'd say Wieters, since there's a significant chance that five years from now Mauer is playing a different position.

Rich, Philly

Do Strasberg( if the M's draft him ) and Hernadez give the M's a potential dominant top of the rotation?

Keith Law

  (11:01 AM)

Potentially, yes, although Hernandez will be close to free agency by the time Strasburg starts to reach his potential as a major league starter.

Fred (Long Island)

Who are the best Yankee prospects that nobody has even talked about (hyped about) -- that is, if there are any?

Keith Law

  (11:03 AM)

Zach McAllister would be the top name.

matt (nyc)

Keith, how many innings can a starter usually accrue while pitching in the AFL?

Keith Law

  (11:05 AM)

The first year of the AFL, 1992, the league leader in IP threw 62. Alan Benes threw 58 or 59 in 1995, a year after throwing 205 in the regular season and then getting hurt. Last year, the league leader only threw about 28 or 29 innings, according to the AFL media guide. Some starters only come here for three weeks and make three starts before they leave.

George (NY)

Is anyone looking good so far in the AFL that you've seen? I heard Hughes had a rough start the other day, something like 6 walks in 5 innings.

Keith Law

  (11:06 AM)

I was at Scherzer's start instead of Hughes'. Scherzer was his usual self, 92-94, good slider, violent delivery. Jared Lansford was outstanding last night. Aaron Poreda was excellent in one inning yesterday, but only threw one offspeed pitch (an average slider). Josh Donaldson, Logan Morrison, Chris Nelson have all impressed.

Karl, Baltimore

Do you know when Matusz is supposed to make his first AFL appearance?

Keith Law

  (11:07 AM)

I think it's Saturday. I'll definitely be there. Jeremy Jeffress goes tonight in Peoria for anyone in the area. I'm curious whether the radar gun can penetrate the haze.

Bob(Lowell)

Who have the Red Sox sent5 down there this year?

Keith Law

  (11:08 AM)

Buchholz (pitches Friday), Redick (been so-so, really doesn't like LHP), Wagner (at least a major-league backup), TJ Large, Bates.

Sam (NYC)

Would you trade Pedroia for Utley?

Keith Law

  (11:08 AM)

Yes.

Greg (Boston)

Can we stop talking about how awesome Joe Torre was in LA yet? He finished with 84 wins and only made the playoffs because they have the weakest division in baseball. The Yankees wouldn't have done any better with him at the helm.

Keith Law

  (11:09 AM)

Couldn't agree with you more. Not to mention all the wins he cost his team playing Pierre or Kent.

Robert (Philadelphia)

I see Jason Donald is at 3B in AFL. Is that a realistic spot for him long-term- I guess there is little chance for him in Philly at SS or 2B unless Howard is traded

Keith Law

  (11:09 AM)

I don't think his bat profiles at 3b. He can handle it defensively, but he has below-average power and he's not likely to post a .400 OBP or 50 doubles to balance that out.

Ross (CA)

Do you think it matters to FA SP if they will be the "Ace" of the staff or do you think they largely don't care about those things?

Keith Law

  (11:10 AM)

No, I think that 90% of a typical FA's decision is money. I don't really disagree; I'm not concerned about things like my title - just put it in my paycheck.

Matt (nyc)

When it seems that a pitcher needs to add something to his repertoire how is it determined what pitch will be added. Is it usually a pitch that they threw in a lower level and abandoned or is it determined by the organizations philosophy about certain pitches (i.e. the yankees and nardi contreras favoring curveballs to sliders).

Keith Law

  (11:12 AM)

Both of those are factors, but an org will also consider a pitcher's arm slot and arm action and his ability to turn his wrist to get good break/action on each type of pitch. It should always be tailored to the pitcher himself.

Dave (San Pedro, CA)

Everyone thought the Cubs were overdue in the Div series but the Dodgers took care of them quickly. Your thoughts on about ESPN.com picking Philly over LA this round?

Keith Law

  (11:13 AM)

I picked the Dodgers. I don't think the issue was that the Cubs were "due," but that they were the best team in the NL in the regular season. They just stopped hitting for three days, and you can't blame that entirely on the Dodger starters.

Ben: (Columbus)

Hey Keith...Thoughts on Michael Brantley and how does he finalize the Sabathia trade in your book?

Keith Law

  (11:13 AM)

Fourth outfielder. With Bryson having shoulder surgery, this is probably coming to shake out as just Sabathia for LaPorta.

Dave (San Pedro, CA)

After all the havoc that Scott Boras has created with his "deals", why don't teams just blackball him?

Keith Law

  (11:14 AM)

Aside from the illegality of it? Maybe the fact that he represents a lot of great players, both in pro ball and in the draft. I really don't get the casual fan's antipathy towards Boras. The whole Alvarez thing could have been avoided if the Pirates and MLB had just played by the rules.

Justin (Baltimore)

What free agent will sign the worst contract this winter?

Keith Law

  (11:15 AM)

K-Rod comes to mind.

Keith (Chicago)

Shapiro called our system one of the 10 best, maybe even top 5. Do you agree? (LaPorta, Huff, Santana, Mills, Weglarz, Brantley, Crowe, Miller...)

Keith Law

  (11:16 AM)

They're not top 5. Top 10 is probably a stretch too, although I'd have to think that through some more. There's not much pitching depth there, and they're not like, say, the Giants or Rangers, with a slew of high-upside arms in the lower levels.

Kyle J (Philadelphia)

Keith, Can a player be put on the DL in the playoffs?

Keith Law

  (11:17 AM)

Sort of. Mike Lowell was removed from the ALDS roster during the series, but as a result, he is ineligible to play in the ALCS. Kind of the same thing.

Chris (Dallas, TX)

Klaw: Rank these 3 AL RoY candidates: David Murphy, Alexei Ramirez, Carlos Gomez.

Keith Law

  (11:17 AM)

$5.

ajd (chicago)

Hey Keith, quick question: I read a lot of the Yankees' players want Burnett, and that might influence what Cashman does. Why the heck would management care what players want? And isn't this a case of the "experts" (the guys on the field) not knowing what's best for the health of the team?

Keith Law

  (11:18 AM)

I wouldn't put much credibility in any story that says that Cashman is listening to the players on personnel moves.

Jimbo, Brooklyn

KLAW! Can you explain a bit further this potential ban by Japanese baseball for players who opt for MLB? Do you see this actually affecting any Japanese prospects' decisions? Do you think Japanese prospects would fare better in the MLB with a full US minor league development?

Keith Law

  (11:19 AM)

I don't think it will affect any prospects' decisions at all, and I think that NPB should be ashamed of themselves for trying to screw the players like that. If a player wants to make more money and play in the toughest competitive environment possible, then he should be allowed to do so, even if it means crossing a border.

Brick (Chicago)

Can you explain the situation with Justin Smoak in the AFL? Is he only allowed to play on Wednesdays and Sundays? Is that right?

Keith Law

  (11:20 AM)

I believe that's right. Each team has a few players on its "taxi squad" who can only play on those two days. I'm just not sure offhand if Smoak is on the taxi squad - haven't seen them yet.

Dave (San Pedro, CA)

As a former front office guy, do you think the "Manny/Blake" trades offset the "Schmidt/Jones" trades as it relates to Colletti's job?

Keith Law

  (11:21 AM)

The Blake trade was horrible. That's going to come back to bite them for years.

Ryan (NY)

Mr. Law, do you ever think we will see a world wide MLB Amateur Draft?

Keith Law

  (11:21 AM)

Yes, or at least a strong push for one in the next CBA negotiations.

Scott (Ft Myers, FL)

Is a baseball trip to the AFL worth while? Aside from going to the games, are there any must see/do's out there?

Keith Law

  (11:22 AM)

I'd suggest the weather as an incentive, but it's not like you're in the cold right now. Food's great out here. Easy to get from park to park (there are three games every day - two at 12:30 and one at 7:05). And you'll see a lot of guys whose names will mean a lot more a year from now, whether it's because they're having an impact in the majors (Longoria was here last year, as was Snider) or because they were involved in major trades (LaPorta).

Mark (Maine)

Seriously Wakefield over Byrd in Game 4? Wakefield got killed the last time he faced TB and if guys reach base, they will run all day off of him and Cash. Add to the fact that minus the 2003 playoffs and that one pitch to Boone, Wakefield has been a terrible post season pitcher. Byrd is nothing special either but at least TB hasn't faced him this year so that can work to his advantage. Do you think the Sox are doing this because Wake has been there forever or do you think they're just smarter than 'us', the fans, and we should give them the benefit of the doubt?

Keith Law

  (11:23 AM)

I would have gone with Byrd. Wakefield hasn't been good for a month or more. That said, if this series hinges on that decision, I'd be surprised.

John (Middlebury, VT)

Do you know the progress or lack of progress for the Yankees to farmhands that underwent tommy john surgery (Humberto Sanchez and Andrew Brackman)?

Keith Law

  (11:24 AM)

Sanchez was back and pitching in relief at the end of the year, with his old velocity and 20 or 30 extra pounds. Brackman is pitching in Hawaii now, also with his old velocity and a good breaking ball, but with the usual command issues for a guy that recently off surgery.

Craig (PA)

Explain why the blake trade is bad for LA? If he gets them to a WS, wont it be worth it?

Keith Law

  (11:25 AM)

The only way Blake "gets them" to the World Series is if he drives the bus. The prospects they gave up, particularly Carlos Santana, were way too good for the marginal-if-that upgrade they got in Blake.

Rytor (CT)

Keith, where would Grant Balfour's fastball sit on the 20/80 scale? He's basically a one-pitch pitcher with a sub 2.00 ERA, so it would have to be at least 60, right?

Keith Law

  (11:25 AM)

Probably 65.

Steve (Albany, NY)

Do you think the Yankees will trade Cano this offseason? What would his value be at this point? I think they are selling low.

Keith Law

  (11:27 AM)

I don't think they'll trade him unless they're getting something impact in return. They know they'd be selling low, and someone - River Ave Blues? - wrote the other day that Cano hadn't actually had that awful of a year, just an awful start, then a return to his usual self in the last four months or so.

Jake (MA)

About the Blake trade, do you feel the same way about the Gagne trade last year where the Sox gave up Beltre? Or do you give the Sox a pass because no one knew Gagne would have been that bad, where everyone knows Blake stinks.

Keith Law

  (11:28 AM)

Santana is a better prospect than Beltre, and Meloan is better than Gabbard or Murphy. And yes, Gagne showed no signs pre-trade that he was going to stink like that.

Bryan- MA

Is Stolmy Pimentel a legit prospect? He seems to have a nice frame for an 18 year old pitcher.

Keith Law

  (11:29 AM)

Definitely. Good projection, good changeup. Had another scout tell me he saw Pimentel twice, and the second time the curve was ahead of the change. I get a lot of questions about this kid.

Frank (Maine)

Was Dustin Pedroia the AL MVP prior to his 1-for-17 showing in the ALDS?

Keith Law

  (11:30 AM)

The playoffs don't count - ballots were due before they started. I think Pedroia wins it. Morneau's shot died with the Twins in the one-game playoff.

Dane (Boston)

Keith, would CoCo and Bowden get it done for Jake Peavy? How about Coco, Bowden and Lugo for Peavy and Khalil Greene?

Keith Law

  (11:30 AM)

No, and no.

Joe (CIN)

Keith, I think a key to KLawbaiting is to be consistant. I'm not going to make any predictions, but I think the questions chosen will be the ones that use the best bait.

Keith Law

  (11:31 AM)

That was good.

Scot (TX)

Julio Borbon - excellent prospect or overrated Juan Pierre type player?

Keith Law

  (11:31 AM)

Better hitter than Pierre. Good CF, can run, not sure about the OBP ability.

Nick (Toronto)

Of Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe and Sheets, who do you think gets the most reasonable contract?

Keith Law

  (11:34 AM)

Sheets is in a different class - he's going to go at a discount because of the injury, so he'll get less money and fewer years, which will look like a steal if he turns out to be healthy. After that, Lowe.

Eric (NYC)

I know the White Sox system is baren, but do either Konerko or Swisher have any value in a trade - What would you do to improve OBP, speed and defensive range on this team? Follow up: Can Alexei really play SS?

Keith Law

  (11:35 AM)

Swisher might because of his contract, but it's hard to explain away his bad year, and Konerko has no value. I don't think Ramirez can play SS, but I think Gordon Beckham can and that he'll be in Chicago by 2010.

Jack (Boston)

Keith, would a bag of balls and an old rosen bag get it done for Peavy? I'm Sox fan and that was an absurd proposal. On a real note, what might that trade take? Even though I'm not sure I'm in favor of it regardless.

Keith Law

  (11:36 AM)

If you're the Padres, you start with Buchholz, right? I wouldn't be surprised if the first offer was Buchholz and Anderson, and maybe a third guy in Z-ball.

Paddy (St. Louis, MO)

Keith, If you're the Dodgers GM, what free agents do you keep?

Keith Law

  (11:37 AM)

If you can keep Manny and let the rest walk, that's probably the best plan.

Bryan- MA

Rays or Sox, who ya got?

Keith Law

  (11:37 AM)

Rays.

Too (Legit)

How many runs allowed do you think Texas would improve by if they moved Michael Young to 3B and got a good defensive shortstop -- someone like Adam Everett -- to hold down the fort for a year or two until Elvis Andrus is ready?

Keith Law

  (11:37 AM)

20.

Chris (wayne, nj)

Looks like Daniel Murphy played 2B in the AFL yesterday. Is that wishful thinking on the Mets' part? I can't imagine he has anywhere near adequate range/hands for 2B

Keith Law

  (11:38 AM)

He didn't have a single moderately difficult play, so I can't tell you whether it's crazy or not. I'm skeptical of the plan, though. The OF->2b and 3b->2b conversions don't often work out unless the guy was a fair shortstop to begin with.

Adam (San Diego)

Why do people in Boston think we'd entertain a trade for Peavy? Did I miss a major announcement or something??

Keith Law

  (11:39 AM)

There are a lot of rumors about the Padres trimming payroll or holding steady, which might necessitate the trade of a veteran or two.

Raymond (Baltimore)

KLAW, Jack's question has me thinking. I'm always skeptical of NL pitchers coming over to the AL. Which pitchers do you think can come over to the AL and relatively maintain their level of success?

Keith Law

  (11:40 AM)

Sabathia, Santana. OK, that's cheating. Billingsley could. Hamels could. Peavy probably, although the shift in leagues AND parks would hit his stats. Webb. Wainwright.

Malcolm, Boston

Do you really think the Sox should give up Anderson & Buchholz for Peavy? I know Peavy is amazing and has a great contract, but shouldn't the Sox hold onto their best power-hitting prospect?

Keith Law

  (11:40 AM)

I didn't say they should - just that the Padres would ask for something very substantial, like that, in return.

Stupp- NYC

Keith, Do you think it's ironic that the same people that praise Manny for his "clutchness" also chew him out over the way he dogs it in "unimportant" spots? I mean, wouldn't that BE the definition of being a clutch player- one who is intentionally great in big spots while intentionally giving less in normal spots?

Keith Law

  (11:41 AM)

It's part of the fallacy of "clutch." You're saying the player takes it easy when the leverage is lower. And that, in my book, makes him a dog.

Taylor (Toronto)

The Jays said they wanted JP Arencibia to work on taking more pitches in the AFL, have you had a chance to watch him yet? He seems to be able to hit for power but without taking walks doesn't he become a backup?

Keith Law

  (11:43 AM)

Saw him last night. Has power, that's clear. Average thrower, might be a touch above. Didn't show any change in his impatience - and yes, if he's a .310 OBP guy in the majors, he's a backup.

Alberto (Boston)

Hola Keith! I actually have a cooking question. I've taken over the cooking for my family and I find that recipes are very conservative on the amount of herbs and spices used. Do you always add more than the suggested amount like me?

Keith Law

  (11:43 AM)

I improvise a lot with herbs, spices, extracts, whatever. You're not going to throw the recipe off by doubling the vanilla extract or adding 1/4 tsp of crushed red chili peppers.

Sam (Corpus Christi)

Keith, please keep an eye on Brian Bogusevic while you're in Arizona. With the Astros' terrible system, he might be our best prospect.

Keith Law

  (11:44 AM)

I'll see him again, but after two games I'm not seeing it. I think everyone is getting very excited over 120 good at bats.

Willie (Tiverton R.I.)

The Red Sox of this day and age are not in ahurry to trade amy of their top prospects especially with the base of starting pitching they have. If they are to look at anyone how bout a catcher like McCann in Atl.

Keith Law

  (11:44 AM)

Sure, but why would Atlanta trade McCann? He's a good young player with a good contract.

Stephen (Sacramento, CA)

Do you still collect baseball cards?

Keith Law

  (11:45 AM)

Not since I was 14 or 15.

Travis(Springfield Mo)

Colby Rasmus- Top prospect still. He has started slow at ever level (given hurt alot this year) but is he still a top ten mlb prospect.

Keith Law

  (11:45 AM)

Is that a question or a statement? I happen to agree, but I was confused about who was chatting for a moment there.

Shane (Boston)

Buster Onley, in his blog today, said the yankees could shift Cano to first and then try and sign a second baseman. Does Cano's offensive output, justify him being a firstbaseman?

Keith Law

  (11:46 AM)

No. That's a bad plan. Cano's also not as bad at 2b as people seem to think.

Chris (Milwaukee)

There are a ton of Brewers fans up here clamoring for CC's return. Can you please tell them that his deal may be realistic for a year or two, but after that a contract of that size would sink a smaller market team like the Brewers?

Keith Law

  (11:49 AM)

Too much risk for a team with that level of payroll. I wonder where the Brewers go from here; their rotation for 2009 is Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Villanueva. That's not going a 90-win team there, and other than maybe Jeffress - who has, um, issues of his own - is there a potential impact SP in the system? I think their second-best pitching prospect is probably Jake Odorizzi, who is 18 and 4 or 5 years off.

Craig (NY, NY)

Keith,where do you think the Mets draw the line on Oliver Perez? Because of his youth, will teams be willing to go 6-8 years with him? Would you rather sign him for 6yrs-$80m or 4yrs-$60m?

Keith Law

  (11:49 AM)

No way I'd go 6 years with him. That would go into the worst contract of the offseason discussion.

Russ (Vancouver)

What is the upside of: Feliz, Bret Anderson, C Buchholz? Who is most likely to reach their upside?

Keith Law

  (11:50 AM)

Feliz has the highest upside and I also think he's quite likely to reach it. Anderson has the best feel/polish at this point.

Mike (Dallas)

Law Dog, Why do the Rangers continue to send talent out of the door with regard to pitching? That is exactly what they need...i.e. Chris Young, Francisco Rodriguez, Danks...

Keith Law

  (11:50 AM)

Continue? Danks was traded two years ago. Young earlier than that. They've been stockpiling arms for about 22 months now.

ajd (chicago)

Is that really the argument re: clutch? Or is it that the "clutch" player doesn't let the assorted jitters, nerves, etc. affect him when he's in a particularly pressure-laden situation? (I don't buy into "clutch" for what it's worth.) In any event, it's interesting that, in Manny's case (cf. Bill Simmons) when people say "clutch" they really mean "too stupid to know what's going on." Wonder if they'd say that about an articulate white guy!

Keith Law

  (11:52 AM)

"Clutch" is supposed to be "better when the pressure's on." That means worse when the pressure's off, to me, at least. And that's a good point about Manny - I wonder if they'd say that if he was a non-Latino American who only spoke English. "Less comfortable in English" does not equal "stupid."

Joe, RI

KLAW, help me out here. Since Derek Jeter can't play SS anymore, and the yankees don't have a firstbaseman, wouldn't make at least some sense to consider shifting Jeter to 1B and finding a real defensive SS? Jeter could certainly play First, couldn't he?

Keith Law

  (11:52 AM)

Here's a thought. How about, instead of shifting players at random to first base, the Yankees go out and ... sign a first baseman!

Steve (NYC)

Did you know that the combined ERA of Dice-K, Beckett and Lester in 70 innings against the Rays this year is under 2.00? Still think the Rays are gonna win?

Keith Law

  (11:53 AM)

Yes, I do.

Albert Pujols (St. Louis, MO)

I'm the MVP, right? You're not buying into this nonsense about Ryan Howard or Manny, are you?

Keith Law

  (11:54 AM)

Of course you're the MVP. And the funny thing is that most people seem to accept Pujols as the MVP despite the fact that his team was a fringe contender (at best) after the All-Star Break, but in the AL, Sizemore can't get a sniff.

Adam (San Diego)

As reported by ESPN on Dec 12, 2007 after Peavy agreed to his extension..."Peavy will have a full no-trade clause from 2008-10. In 2011, he can veto trades to 14 teams. In 2012, he can decline a trade to eight teams."

Keith Law

  (11:54 AM)

No-trades were made to be bought out.

Keith Law

  (11:55 AM)

And I believe Peavy himself said that if the Padres are rebuilding, he'd be interested in moving to a contender.

Keith Law

  (11:55 AM)

OK, guys, sorry to cut this a little short today, but I have to hit the road. Long drive to Surprise. I'll be back for a regular chat next week.