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Amy Nelson

  (3:01 PM)

Ok everyone I'm here to chat with you about this series that's about to start. Let's get it started.

Kevin (Dallas)

Phillies have 2 MVPS(Howard, Rollins), the best closer in baseball (Lidge), steal ratio higher than any other team (85%), more HRs than any other team, the best starter in the series (Hamels), beat up righty pitchers (all starters for the Dodgers are rightys besides kershaw, a rookie), and have home field, and have been just as hot a team as the Dodgers if not better! How are so many analyst picking the Dodgers?

Amy Nelson

  (3:03 PM)

Kevin,All very valid fair points. I think that this series is that toughest to pick. I know I struggled with it for awhile, and I know many of my colleagues did, as well. Perhaps the Dodgers are the trendy pick, but I seriously think Derek Lowe is the best starter in this series. Period. Cole hamels has been nasty, but let's see if he's able to do it consistently first.

Jeff Chicago

Amy, I think it is a California bias I hear in your words. Phillies are going to win in Six,

Amy Nelson

  (3:03 PM)

I admit, I do like that warm-weather state than that of Pennsylvania, but it's not a bias about who will win.

Bill (Philadelphia, PA)

How big of a role do you think Chase Utley will play in the series?

Amy Nelson

  (3:05 PM)

Huge. He has GOT to start hitting. The Dodgers faced a predominantly righthanded hitting lineup in the Cubs. This lineup, with switch hitters and lefties sprinkled throughout, will be a challenge for the Dodgers. But they have three leftied in their bullpens, so I would look for Utley to try and set tone early against RHP starters.

Brad Lidge

The best closer in baseball? Dude, I'm going to blow a save in this postseason. You know it, I know it, Tim McCarver knows it. Don't put that extra pressure on me!!

Amy Nelson

  (3:05 PM)

Yeesh, Brad you're a standup guy and a class act. Though that first appearane you made against the Brewers was diecy. And they dont have a Manny Ramirez.

Johnny (Scranton, PA)

Thanks for making the special guest appearance Amy. I think if these games turn into offensive battles, the Phils have the advantage. They had the 3rd best winning percentage in baseball for games where they allowed four or more runs.

Amy Nelson

  (3:06 PM)

Yes, but the Dodgers gave uo the least amount of homers this year. So if the Phillies do it with offense, I wouldn't necessarily count on it via the home run. Nice to see you JOhnny, my First Take chats are on hold this month while I'm on the road for the playoffs..

dan, phildelphia, PA

who do you think will win the NLCSdodgers or phillies?

Amy Nelson

  (3:06 PM)

I said the Dodgers.

John Madden

You know Amy, I'm a big baseball fan and you know what I like? Crazy guys, and Manny Ramirez is crazy. When I was at Oakland I had a lot of crazy guys and we won a lot of games, so I think the crazy guy will prevail in this series. BOOM!

Amy Nelson

  (3:07 PM)

Great analysis, John.

Pete (Tampa)

While LA has been on a big run, I can't help but think that karma is going to hit them soon because of #99. Everyone in LA is treating him as king (not that I blame them why should they care how Manny ended up there) but I think sooner or later the honeymoon will be over. Whether it happens in the NLCS, WS or if LA signs him long term.

dan, phildelphia, PA

if manny doesnt do good, how do you think the dodgers will do

Amy Nelson

  (3:08 PM)

Well his numbers suggest he won't (just .136 without a home run or an RBI and overall this year is hitting .212 one homer but nine walks in 10 games) But why on earth would we ever start trying to predict what Manny is going to do?

Tim (Philly)

The Dodgers won the NL WEST because the Diamondbacks blew it and Manny came. Waht would of happen if Manny was never traded?

Amy Nelson

  (3:08 PM)

The Dodgers are sitting at home.

Charlie (Atlanta,GA)

Everyone seems to be picking L.A., but if Philly hits even close to their capability, this series could be over quickly. They killed my Braves all year, and have so much power and speed in their line-up. Don't you think Hamels and Myers could be a devastating 1-2 combo in this series. Both pitchers have gotten tons of rest, I just think its Philly's year.

Johnny (Scranton, PA)

I think Charlie Manuel is a bit underrated as a manager too. Joe Torre got really good all of a sudden when Manny joined the fold. Torre is one of the best historically but I think Manuel at this stage is comparable.

Randy corona ca

Do think the return of Furcal will make the difference for the Dodgers beating philly in 4 games

Amy Nelson

  (3:10 PM)

I think it will make a HUGE difference. Next to Lowe, will be the biggest factor in this series, I think.

Johnny (Scranton, PA)

Fair point on the HRs but don't forget that they play in the NL West where offense is a four-letter word. Runs can score in other ways than by HR.

Amy Nelson

  (3:10 PM)

Also very fair point, since Petco is a park in hte division.

Craig (PA)

Can a Dodger fan, especially one in Philly ask a question? How do the Phillies fans not understand that they have a HR team going against solid ground ball pitchers? Also, the phillies were built for citizens bank park, in spacious Dodger stadium, their slugging advantage falls apart.

Jason (Wayne, PA)

Wasn't CC supposed to be the best pitcher in baseball well if so seeing what the phillies did to him, what makes you think they can't do it to Lowe and Billingsly?

Amy Nelson

  (3:14 PM)

CC was, but he was pitching on fumes. And he's a totally different pitcher than Derek Lowe. Lowe thrives when his arm is more tired, because of that sinker.

Lasorda's Revenge

Thanks for picking the dods! they are the better team. better pitching (starters and pen) better hitting (starters + kent, garciaparra, and pierre) and better coaching. that said who do you think will play better Ramirez or Howard? and Furcal or Rollins?

Amy Nelson

  (3:16 PM)

Wow, definitely Ramirez. Have you seen Howard's numbers? Not very good ... Rollins and Furcal tough tough pick. My mind says Furcal, because of what he did last week and I think his success is also crucial to the Dodgers winning it. But can you trust his balky back? We'll see. Jimmy is coming off a great series, too. Both will play well, I imagine.

Justin (Danbury, CT)

I think the way Brett Myers pitches decides this series, how big is his role?

Amy Nelson

  (3:17 PM)

Huge for the Phillies, absolutely. Because if Lowe comes out and wins Game 1, which I think he'll do, then Myers role becomes even more important. Not that isn't already.

Johnny (Scranton, PA)

Lots of talk about the offensive keys to the series but I think Brett Myers is a big key on the pitching side. If the Brett who got sent to Lehigh Valley shows up, the Dodgers can step in and take this in six.

tim (phily)

the phils bullpen cannot be worse than the dodgers

Amy Nelson

  (3:18 PM)

It is not, and that was my only hesitation. THe Dodgers are now using a guy who isn't their closer, as their closer. And he's young. Not the best combination, but it's been done before certainly.

Amy Nelson

  (3:18 PM)

Btw, the Dodgers' pen ERA was second only in the NL to the Phillies'.

Nash (Oxford, England)

With Rollins and furcal setting the table for both teams, will it break down to manny "on fire" vs Utley whos power faded after the all star break, howard who is only just batting .250 (even with the huge power numbers) and burrel?

Amy Nelson

  (3:19 PM)

Perhaps, might come down to the bullpens, and the matchups, which I believe might favor Torre.

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

I think Craig is right. No slugging team has ever beaten a ground ball pitcher. We shouldn't even watch the games. Puh-lease! The Phils have speed in their line up to be able to manufacture runs.

Amy Nelson

  (3:19 PM)

Definitely an asset that makes them very dangerous.

David (Valencia, CA0

When it comes to middle relief, who has the edge?

Amy Nelson

  (3:21 PM)

great question. I'd have to give it to the Phillies...but Park, Wade and Beimel are a tough trifecta.

Joe (Baton Rouge)

All the Dodgers need to do is have a lead going into the 9th. No one is getting runs of Broxton with that gas can.

Craig (PA)

Hey Cosmo, you have to get on base to use that speed. Look at the OBP for teams against LA.

Amy Nelson

  (3:21 PM)

Who's bench do you think is better? I think I have to give it to the Dodgers, though Manuel has some flexibility when it comes to matchups...

Jeff (Philly)

I always hear how sinker ball pitchers "thrive on a tired arm" If that's the case, (which is isn't) why not pitch them every three days. Hell, every two days. If that theory is correct, then they should all pitch complete games. The should be dominate by the 9th inning, right? C'mon.

Amy Nelson

  (3:22 PM)

You know what's strange? I used to cover Lowe in Boston, and he used to talk about how he felt better when his arm was tired. But when he started on short rest this year he did not do well...

Rob (Charlotte NC)

Moyer's got to love the idea of pitching in Dodger's stadium. He's an underrated factor in the Phillies favor. His lifetime ERA is high, but that's deceptive given that he's not the same pitcher now that he was in the 80's or 90's. He's been phenomenal in recent years in other pitcher's stadiums.

Amy Nelson

  (3:22 PM)

Have you seen Manny's numbers against him? Not pretty...

Craig (PA)

Hey Cosmo, you have to get on base to use that speed. Look at the OBP for teams against LA. PS, way to forget about Kuo Amy.

Amy Nelson

  (3:23 PM)

Yes, Kuo is in there as well...

Mike

Amy, ALCS comment here really quick. I'm a Twins fan. You were real high on them, then they went out and layed an egg against the White Sox. Since I can't stand the Red Sox, please pick them to win the ALCS. Thanks!

Amy Nelson

  (3:24 PM)

Actually Mike, they laid an egg against the Royals. Totally shocking to me, so you can throw that "momentum" argument out the window. Sorry, I picked the Rays...

ismar Ardon

im a big dodger fan and thank you for taking your time to answer questions.. but everyone seems to forget how we destroyed the cubs.. the were suppose to be the best team in baseball till we destroyed them.. phils are hot but i dont think they have better pitching than the cubs. and jaime moyer will be throwing bp.. so i dont understand where all this west coast bias is coming from

Charlie Manuel

Apparently Manny doesn't like chin music. Should I buzz him a few times tonight?

Amy Nelson

  (3:24 PM)

Sure why not Charlie? Let's make it intersting...

Joe Sixpack (Philly)

I'm glad you picked the Dodgers. What does a broad know about baseball anyway?

Amy Nelson

  (3:25 PM)

My favorite name in the entire world!

Kris Philadelphia

As a Phillies Phan i am a bit worried! It's great that we got home field but in the last series we just werent geting on base a lot. We would rack up a few runs early and then that was it as far as hit!

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

Groundballs sometimes find holes, Craig. And make sure your groundball pitchers don't hang anything - the people in the seats will be 'dodging' blasts from the sluggers.

dan, phildelphia, PA

i think the phils have a better bench because of dobbs who is the best pinch hitter in the mlb

Mik - Philadelphia, PA

Why is everybody on the Dodgers bandwagon just because they beat a Cubs team that fell apart. The phillies match up with both the Cubs and Dodgers. The phils just get no respect.

Don (Charlotte, NC)

I'm hearing too many people gush over L.A. All they've done is win a weak division, and inherit the NLDS from a team that beat themselves once again. Philly is the superior team, and I'm taking them in 6 at the most.

Mike (Villanova)

Amy - I think you should only allowed to answer this question and that's about it. Who has the better looking team?

Amy Nelson

  (3:28 PM)

Mike, I'll take the fifth and spare everyone that line of discussion...

Mike (Boston)

Why is it that everyone is saying that the Dodgers are the hotter team? Phillies has a better run to close out the end of the season. Sure, they won in 4, rather than 3 games in the NLDS, but those 3 games the Dodgers played were against a Cubs team that looked like they didn't want to play in October anymore. And it wasn't the Dodgers' play that made them look like that.

Amy Nelson

  (3:29 PM)

It's true that the Dodgers had best recor din September in the NL, but they also played .500 in their last 10 games. So actually they were not that hot. It's just the last week...

Tim (Philly, PA)

The Phillies are a very good low-ball hitting team, and whoever talked up Broxton as a closer neglected to realize that he blew 9 games this year. The Phillies? Undefeated when entering the 9th with a lead...

Tommy, Philly

What's this "CC was pitching on fumes" crap? He was lights out up until that start. The Phillies just rose to the occasion and lit him up. End of discussion

Amy Nelson

  (3:31 PM)

Ok fair enough, perhaps he wasn't pitching on fumes. And there were some good pitches in that start that they hit, but if he had to come back and pitch another, I wasn't convinced his arm was going to be up the par. And that's based more on seeing what he did last year, and how he even said he ran out of gas.

Patrick, Los Angeles, CA

From being a Dodger fan and watching them this whole year I don't see the Phillies beating them if the dodgers get out in front when Lowe and Billingsley are pitching. They've been too good. As much as we look to the whole season it really doesn't matter. And I think Lowe and Billingsley are way better than anything the Phillies can throw at the Dodgers.

Philly Fans (Everywhere)

Do you people know how much this city needs a parade? There are Philly fans that have graduated from college that were not born the last time a city team won a title.

Ryan (PA)

Over/under on IBB for Manny, 10? The key to the series will be Ethier and Loney making the Phils pay when they put Manny on.

Amy Nelson

  (3:32 PM)

Great question ... takers? Manny was walked nine times in 10 regular season games against the Phils this year.

Sean(Los Angeles, CA)

There is no way any Philly fan can be confidant seeing Myers and Moyer against this stacked Dodger lineup. Manny, Ethier, Kemp, and Martin will have there way with those two.

JR (Vegas)

Amy- what is the point of this chat? All the Dodgers fans think their team will win, all the Phills think their team will win. Surprise.

Johnny (Scranton, PA)

As an impartial observer here I find it funny how people are dissing the Dodgers for winning a weak division and having the NLDS handed to them by the Cubs. The Phils won their division due to a second consecutive implosion by an overhyped Mets team then knocked off a Brewers team that fired their manager with 12 games to go. I guess selective memory is a good thing though.

Amy Nelson

  (3:33 PM)

Johnny's impartial!

dan, phildelphia, PA

think about it folks, yah manny did ok when they versed the phillies at home but what happened to him when he went to citizens bank, lets just say he sucked

Amy Nelson

  (3:34 PM)

He did, but why would you EVER try and predict what Manny will do?

Ralph (Amazon Jungle)

IBB = 6.

Mike - Philadelphia, PA

Does anybody who claims to be a Dodgers fan actually watch them during hte season? Actually get there before the 3rd and stay after the 8th? Come on, You guys all jumped on a bandwagon a week ago. Don't let a series against a scared Cubs team jade your thinking. Phils in 5!

Amy Nelson

  (3:34 PM)

Mike,Very fair. Had one player tell me how it just doesn't feel like baseball out there. And having been there many times, I sort of agree. It's a strange environment...

Justin (Danbury, CT)

Does it even matter who wins? Honestly does either team stand a chance between Boston or Tampa. BTW I hate Boston

Joe Sixpack (Philly)

Instead of lobbing 4 intentional balls when Manny is up, they should just hit him in the neck. That should keep the outside of the plate out of reach.

Rob (Charlotte NC)

How about these Manny stats against Moyer: since 2000 Manny's hitting .276 and most of those hits are homers. He better try to hit the ball at Burrell. Unless of course Moyer just gives him the bonds treatment.

Johnny (Scranton, PA)

I'll go with four on IBBs for Manny. I think Phils' pitchers will go after him. This will all, of course, depend upon situations.

dan, phildelphia, PA

If the phillies can hold the lead intill the 8th inning do you think the dodgers will have a chance of winning the game because the phillies are 76-0 while leadin after 8 innings

Amy Nelson

  (3:36 PM)

Actually, they were 79-0 after 8 in the regular season I believe.

Anthony (New York, NY)

As an idle Yankees fan, I think that Joe Torre's postseason experience will be a big factor, especially if the games are close in the late-innings. But the Dodgers lineup is nowhere as good as the Phillies outside of Manny, Martin, and maybe Furcal.

Brad Lidge (still nervous)

79-0???? Thanks for jinxing me, Amy.

Mike - Philadelphia, PA

Does anybody remember who is Manging the Phils and who knows how to pitch Manny?

Tim (Philly, PA)

Funniest thing I saw this week were the Sportsnation polls. The majority seems to think the Dodgers will win the Series, yet the same majority thinks the Phils have a better lineup, starting pitching (barely), and better bullpen. GOnna be a tough series. Phils in 7!

Mike (Villanova)

The 83-win Cardinals coming from a horrendous division in a weak NL beat the Tigers...of course the NLCS winner has a chance.

Eric (Philly)

Amy, why do you think Lowe will out-pitch Hamels Game 1? Lowe's line in the Cubs series was 6IP, 7 hits, 2ER, 1BB. This isn't terrible, but not exactly great either. And if I remember correctly, he let up those 2 runs in the second inning, and Hamels thrives off of pitching with a lead. I see Phillies winning Game 1 3-1.

Amy Nelson

  (3:41 PM)

You have to remember I also was the person who picked the Cubs to win it all this year (and that was just a week ago) -- maybe I was being stubborn in sticking with my preseason pick. Listen, i'm not saying hamels is going to get lit up out there tonight. And maybe it's because i covered Lowe, but when he cares -- and he really cares this year it being a FA one -- he is tough to beat. With his experience, I gave him the edge. Doesn't mean I'll be right. At all.

Tommy, Philly

To "Johnny from Scranton": The Phillies were not handed the division. They were in first place for all but 2 weeks of the year. They hit a spell where they couldn't hit, got it back and took their rightful place at the top of the NL East. Very different from last year, the Phillies were clearly the better team

Jake (San Diego)

Honestly if the Phillies are in the NL West they win it by 12 games. We won 92 in a tough division, three .500+ teams. Give them Manny all year we still win the NL West hands down

Sean(Los Angeles, CA)

4 IBB to Manny=4 RBI for Andre Ethier

Amy Nelson

  (3:47 PM)

sorry guys just lost my internet connection

Jesse (Chavez Ravine, CA)

Dodgers in 5 (win 1 on the road and sweep in LA), Derek Lowe is MVP.

Scott (D.C.)

Saying the Dodgers had the best September is VERY misleading. The Phillies had an identical 17-8. They both had the best record in September.

Amy Nelson

  (3:48 PM)

I didn't say that ... I said if u look at the Dodgers' last 10 games, they played .500 ball, despite that sept record.

steve (phoenix)

jake from san diego, youre crazy, give them manny all year and loney, eithier and kent (thats right i said it) probably would have hit .600 all season.

Amy Nelson

  (3:48 PM)

don't think mr, kent would agree with you there, Steve.

Greg, Philadelphia

We know all of the sports media prognosticators (along with FOX sports) are hoping against hope that the Dodgers win this Series and face the Red Sox for ratings and big money. Well just keep it up. Your Negative attitude against the Phillies will fire them up. They are one the best teams to respond to adversity over the last few years. All of the naysayers are becoming bulletin board material for the Phils. They will fight their way through a tough series and win it at home next weekend.

Mike (La Jolla, CA)

I grew up on LA Dodger baseball, and MOST of the media gaga about late arriving and early leaving is true for the attendees who are there for an outing, not hardcore baseball fans. The game against the Cubs (weekend start, like Sunday's game will be) was packed early and rockin. AND we don't make our own players so depressed that they have to blame the fans for their own bad play...but all is forgiven w/ Rollins now that the Phils are in, right?

Amy Nelson

  (3:49 PM)

That was the playoffs, though Mike. Regular season? Sometimes there's barely a pulse.

Eli-West Hartford, CT

i am not a fan of either of these teams and i think that the dodgers will win it, Joe Torre always finds a way to win in the postseason and manny loves the pressure, so it's a good combo

Brandon (South Jersey)

I honestly believe this will be a tough match-up but don't think that the Phillies will be sitting at home by next weeks end. The Phightins need a solid outing out of Meyers and hope that he doesn't revert to his first half self, (or his last two starts of the regular season). It'll also be interesting to see what Joe Blanton can bring to the team in LA. Phillies bats will come alive. Phillies in 6. World Series here we come!

David (Valencia, CA)

We arrive during the 3rd inning because of traffic. A 15-20 minute drive to Dodger Stadium can take 45 minutes to 1 hour 1/2 depending on where you live. An estimate made by the US Census Bureau in 2006 said that the Los Angeles population was 9,948,081 compared to Philly's 1,448,394. That's why we're late.

Eric (L.A., CA)

If the Dodgers had this lineup all year, they would have won the NL West by 15 games.

Ed Hochuli (Chat Ref)

That's a personal foul against Jake from San Diego for using "we" when referring to a pro sports team that he is not a part of. 15 yards and repeat 2nd down.

Gary ( New Orleans LA)

I think its just obvious that the Phillies are a much deeper team. Yes Lowe is good, but playoffs tend to be dominated by power pitchers when hitters get tired and their bats slow a little bit. This is why I am taking Hamels-Myers over Lowe and Kuroda any day. I think the biggest deciding factor will be Myers though... When he pitches they either get Adam Eaton or Curt Schilling.

Jays (Jersey)

Amy, you do realize that the phillies play there best ball when everyone is against them. Dont you think your making a big mistake jinxing LA.

Amy Nelson

  (3:51 PM)

hmmm, no because i have no rooting interest (well, i guess except warm weather for the world series)...

The Billy Goat (Chicago)

now that I have taken care of business in one city, I see the Dodgers in 6.

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

To Mike in La Jolla - are you saying that the Dodgers need a weekend game to pack the stadium? The Phils could play at 4am on a Wednesday and be able to fill the park 5 times over. I hope you and the 10 other 'hard-core' Dodger fans enjoy the series.

Shawn PA

All stats are thrown out the window this time of year, phils have homefield advantage in a hitters park. And the dodgers are not exactly and explosive offense, thanks to cubby miscues, the dodgers Offense has been deamed unstoppable, why??

Ryan (MN)

Not really a question... I just wanted to say thanks. You wrote some great stuff toward the end of the season and into the playoffs. You're quickly becoming my favorite writer on the site!

Amy Nelson

  (3:53 PM)

like i wasn't going to post that one! ...

Luis (Ontario,CA)

If Phillies played in the Western Division I don't think it would be as hands down as you'd think. Which division has the toughest pitching in the league? Its seems to me that every NL Western Division team has a formidable front line ACE or two in their staff. Well, we know who won that race. I think Phily has their work cut out for them...and away they go! ;)

Anthony (New York, NY)

Hey Amy, what's the status of Kuo for this series, is he on the roster?

Amy Nelson

  (3:54 PM)

yes believe he's on it

Rob (Charlotte NC)

I'm with Greg. I don't know if it's because they get fired up, but the Phils definately play better when the focus/expectation is on the other team. It's why the Manny circus is so great for them and why they're so good at coming back from deficits. Maybe Bernake should give them a call.

Bud Selig ($$$)

Dodgers in 7, Red Sox in 7

Amy Nelson

  (3:56 PM)

Yep, you can bet that's what baseball is drooling for. Esp since ratings are down this year...

dan, phildelphia, PA

i think the whole series comes down to how ryan howard and chase utley play, if they are goin to suck like last series i think the phillies will lose in 6 but if they start swinging the bats i think its over for the dodgers even though they have manny, like come on its one guy verse howard,utley,burrell,victorino,and j-roll and somewhat werth

Gus ( Los Angeles)

I'm a true Dodger fan didn't jump on a bandwagon but I will greet anyone who wants , too. When I see Philadelphia I see Mitch Williams giving that walk off World Series ending home-run to Joe Carter. Philadelphia fans are a bunch of losers.

Amy Nelson

  (3:57 PM)

Nice, now we're just down to insults...

Amy Nelson

  (3:57 PM)

I'm going to leave it with Johnny...

Johnny (Scranton, PA)

I'm really enjoying this chat. Love watching the Dodger and Phillie faithful attack each other. I hope the games are this intense.

Amy Nelson

  (3:57 PM)

And with that, I'm going to log off guys. Got to get to the park. THanks to everyone who wrote in, i think it's going to be a great series.