Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's get this thing going.
GM of the Phightin Franklins (Philly)
Not a football question, just something I love saying, OUR PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONS. Just four more please.
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
I know there are a number of Philly fans in this chat (most of whom probably hear me on Philly ESPN Radio on the Mike Gill show) so I figure let's get this shout out of the way right at the start!
Rachel, San Diego
Whats your take on L. Tomlinson? Is he washed up now? He's only 29 but has had his fair share of carries/hits on the body. But he's reminding me of how Marshall Faulk was in his last couple years. Is the end closer than I thought for my fantasy franchise of 6 years? It feels like a family member is dying.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
I wouldn't go so far as to equate it to death but LT is off some this season. The run metric breakdowns I've done on SD say the O line is giving him holes and he just isn't doing as much with them as he did in years past because of his toe.
Chris (NY, NY)
Assuming Dallas finishes with the 20th pick in the 1st round, they gave Detroit roughly the equivalent of 1040 draft value points for Roy Williams which is equal to the #15 pick in the draft. The last 6 players picked 15th include Jerome McDougle, Michael Clayton, Derrick Johnson, Tye Hill, Lawrence Timmons and Brandon Albert have a total of 0 pro bowls between them. If Roy Williams plays like a #1 receiver, I can't see how they gave up too much for him.
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Chris, it's that last question that is the big one. If Williams plays to his talent level, it's probably a good deal for Dallas. Williams pouted when he had to share attempts with Calvin Johnson and Owens is not a receiver to keep quiet even when the ball is coming his way, so the chances of this working out chemistry wise are slim. Dallas will regret this move if that happens.
What up KC..you should change your name to Dallas Joyner and get rid of KC. KC stinks man. Anyway, I don't got nothin to do today, so I'm gonna check out the chat. Make it a good one dawg.
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
With the way Dallas has been playing lately, I wouldn't be surprised if people named Dallas weren't thinking of changing their names to Tennessee.
How do you think Jake Long has done so far? He has got to be the least talked about #1 pick ever.
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
When he's played at left tackle, Long has been so-so at best. I've done his metrics for every game but last Sunday's and they are mediocre when he is left on that left tackle island. When they are in the Wildcat and Long is moved over to the other side and covered by another blocker, his metrics have been much better. I think he's a right tackle more than a left one.
KC, tough call here with LJ getting suspended. Do i start Derrick Ward, Jamaal Charles or Chester Taylor along with Brandon Jacobs?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Skip Taylor because Miami's run D has been playing well. I'd go with Ward and Jacobs.
Why has the tight end position fallen off a cliff this year? who should i start this week between anthony fasano, bo scaife and heath miller? i know..its not pretty
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Stick with Fasano. And the tight end drop-off this year has been a trend for a couple of years now. Part of it is injuries and other physical issues (Shockey, Gates, Winslow) but part of it is that a lot of teams simply aren't throwing to their tight ends as much as they used to.
KC, I just traded Andre Johnson for TO and Jeremy Shockey? Was this a bad trade or no?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Short term it will not be in your favor. If you were setting your team up for a good playoff run, however, it was a very good move (assuming you needed help at TE).
Bill (Pomona California)
Hi KC, I saw your metrics on the Jets offensive line, which graded out as roughly average. Fair enough. But it seems to me, when the Jets need a yard, they've been able to pick it up as of late - exactly what you want you're running game to do. Am I wrong? (Or is it just the quality of the opposition?) Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Bill, their line as a whole is doing better than it has in years past. What I was trying to say in that post (which was on NYTimes.com) is that the Jets are a scheme team in the run game despite having headline talent on paper. That tells me they don't think their O line is blocking very well and they therefore have to use zone blocking to cover up their blockign weaknesses.
Craig (Norwich, CT)
What are your thoughts on the comments Troy Palamalu made (including "I think regarding the evolution of football, it's becoming more and more flag football, two-hand touch") regarding the fines the NFL has levied?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
I'd point out something I wrote about in Blindsided. Back in the 50s, Bert Bell didn't crack down on violence (he actually did next to nothing about it) and the game turned into a wild west, NHL style slugfest. That's not what the league wants the game to turn into and that's why they are cracking down on certain types of hits.
Chris (Baltimore, MD)
Hey KC, Are my Ravens as bad as the 31-3 whooping they took from the Colts, or are they a team that can be in it at the end of every game because their defense is able to step up?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
If the Ravens don't get their secondary fixed, this won't be the only 30+ point game they will give up the rest of the year. They were down a couple of cornerbacks and their backups can't cover.
Regarding your bad decision metric - can we assign Orlovsky three or four for the safety play?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
I'd like to give him a couple of points on that one but the current system gives bad decisions only if there is a turnover or near turnover on the play. I guess I could make the case that a safety does turn the ball over, so maybe I'll go back in and put him down for three more points on that one.
I was just preparing for the bigger end zones in the CFL.
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
We now know Orlovsky's future plans!
KC, When is Adrian Peterson going to explode?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Good question. It isn't the O line, or at least it isn't mostly the O line's fault, as their metrics have been good in the games I've broken down. A lot of it has to do with the Vikes having no passing attack but the development of Berrian of late may help change that.
Can you put out an APB on the Patriots Defense for me cuz its going to seem like they went missing come Monday night! Thanks
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Their secondary sure was out of it. Hobbs and O'Neal had been playing very well up to that game but I can definitely see them having a real tough time against Denver.
Ryan (San Diego)
How are Jammer's metrics this year? He has to grade out as one of the best right?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
A 4.9 YPA on 33 attempts is Pro Bowl caliber, so Jammer is at/near the top of the league right now.
jason BROWNS QUESTION
kc what do you expect from the browns after monday night. is it they getting healthy or did they just catch the giants on a bad night.
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
The most notable part of the MNF game for Cleveland to me was their secondary. That had been their weak link by far and even though Smith had a solid game and Plaxico scored a TD, all in all the Cleveland coverage group held its own. If they keep it up, the Browns will have a chance to turn their season around.
PT (Franklin, NC)
I've heard that Nnamdi Asoughma has only had about 6 attempts thrown his way this year, is that right?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
I've got him with 9 so far. He and Champ Bailey are not being thrown at, although in Bailey's case it is partially due to the Broncos moving him around a bit (he's played rover more often than usual).
Jay (Middletown, CT)
Is Shanahan going to pick on Denver cast off Deltha O'Neal on Monday night? He seems to like to do things like that (see Al Davis)
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Yes, yes and yes. Shanahan likes nothing more than to crush those who have let him down in the past.
Bills' running game: discuss
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
I haven't had a chance to look at them since the beginning of the season, so I really can't say much. I do know that Peters has blocked poorly. How about I try to take a look at them before next week's chat and give you some info on it then?
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Mr. Joyner: In your opinion which is the more important need for the Vikings: Secondary help, QB, #2WR, or TE?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
QB by far. They have a playoff caliber team everywhere else on that roster.
Dee (Greenville, NC)
Only 9 times during 6 games??? Wow. I know Nnamdi is bored. Probably as boring as playing outfield in baseball.
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
That makes two years in a row for Asomugha. He had something like 35 passes thrown at him in 2007.
Is Darrelle Revis starting to creep up on the Asoughma and Bailey class? How do his metrics look thsi year?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
5.8 YPA on 21 passes. He's not quite in the Bailey/Asomugha class yet but he's getting there pretty quickly.
Broad Street Brian
FF question here. If I were to trade ryan Grant, what kind of WR should I expect in return?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Grant is a 10-point per game type of player (or at least he should be viewed as that type) so you'll want a similar WR.
What are your thoughts on the play of Charles Woodson this season? Ever since he became a Packer he has become dominant!
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
I couldn't agree more, Mikey. Woodson outplayed Al Harris the past two years and got zero Pro Bowl/media play because of it. He's playing just as well this year and once again isn't getting noticed. I'll have to start a Charles Woodson bandwagon to try to change that.
Why isn't Elvis Dumervil getting any sacks this season? Is it beacuse of double teams? Or he just dont have it this season?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
I don't think he's lost it. He's played pretty well pass rush wise when he's been in there. I know last Sunday it was that Denver never put themselves in a situation to let him cut loose on a pass rush.
Love the chats KC! What are the metrics on the Eagles DB's? Anyone standing out, they seem to be playing well.
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
What stands out is that Samuel is the most targeted CB. He's allowing only 6.7 YPA, which is better than he normally allows, so he's been a good pickup for them (or to put it another way, he's a heckuva lot better than Clements).
do you see Hightower taking over for Edge any time soon? Are all the concerns about his low YPC due to him getting the ball in short yardage situations?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
I know as a fantasy owner who has both Edge and Hightower on two teams, I wish they'd make up their minds as to who will get the bulk of carries. They are both playing well both metric and fantasy wise, so I'd bet Arizona makes no changes. Don't fix what isn't broken, in other words.
KC . . . I am hurting in fantasy. Romo just went down and now Parker hurts himself AGAIN. Who would you start as my #2 RB, pittman or j. stewart?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Pittman for the moment but that could change if Carolina switches back to Stewart.
What are the metrics on Dre Bly? He was so far out of position on a couple of passes last weekend I wondered if Denver was playing with only 10 on defense.
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
7.9 YPA on 28 passes, so he's about as mediocre as he was last year. That's part of why Bailey isn't being thrown at (well, that and the Broncos run D can't stop anyone).
How good has Antoine Winfield been for the purple people eaters so far?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Antoine Winfield would be one of my All Pros picks at CB if I had to choose today. He has a 4.7 YPA and a 78.9% success rate so far and he's also made a ton of plays (sacks, fumble returns, etc.). I'd give him the nod for DPOY as well if I had to vote today.
KC, Would you consider Trent Edwards in the running for the NFL MVP race so far?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
MIkey, Edwards has done a pretty good job this year, but c'mon, MVP? That's not a bandwagon I can jump on just yet.
Alex (New York)
KC, love the chats. You gave us Revis' metrics, but it's the rookie 3rd round pick on the other side who's really impressed me this year. How do Lowery's metrics stack up?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Lowery has an 8.8 overall YPA but a lot of that had to do with one bad game. My scouting eye says he has played great and if he keeps progressing, the Jets are going to have one of the best sets of CBs in the league in the next year or so.
Ryan (America's Finest City)
Which Bronco fan has it worse according to your metrics? Jay in CT (Patriot country) or me in SD (Charger country)?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
This week it would have to be Jay because your city just smacked NE down.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
KC, last week you told me Dallas was about as deep as any team in the secondary. Well, now Jones is out and Newman is still gone. They get back (the original) Roy Williams, but that doesn't really comfort me. So will their depth hold up until Newman and/(if) Jones return? Thanks for the insight.
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Josh, I'll quote from Blindsided and say that's the downside of using a personnel mindset. All it takes is to lose a player or two to lose a personnel edge and that's happened to the Boys. They don't have the schemes in place to cover up for defensive personnel losses like some teams (i.e. New England) do and they will struggle because of it.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
OK so if Winfield's numbers are that good then some of his fellow secondary mates must be getting torched. Who isn't getting the job done in that secondary?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Charles Gordon's 10.9 YPA on 14 passes says he's not holding his own.
Thats cool KC, Just wanted your opinion? I believe Peter King rated him his MVP so far unless I am mistaken? If he stays healthy he got a good shot at it!
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Peter King said that? He knows his stuff but I just can't agree with him on that one.
Please tell me we will start seeing more big games from Marvin Harrison like we did last weekend?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Could be but don't forget that Baltimore had injury issues in their secondary. The Colts do face some weak coverage teams down the stretch (four by my count) but when Marvin faces a good defense, I might lower my expectations.
Any comment about the play calling of the Vikings and the frequent request for Childress to be fired?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
There aren't many coaches who could win with Gus Frerotte as their QB. I'm not part of the fire Childress crowd because he's doing about as well as could be expected. I will say that he has to keep the Vikings in contention for most of this year, as the NFC North is the worst division in the NFL and the Vikes have enough talent to compete for and win it.
KC - What are you thought on the officiating so far this year?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Don't get me started. It has been less than stellar, and I don't just mean the Ed Hochuli call. I do think that call made the rest of the officials a bit jumpy and it's part of the reason I'm holding back. These guys have tough gigs and generally do a very good job but the pressure can get to them at times and this seems to be one of those times.
Thought I would stop in and say hi, my team is only 3-3 an dead in the middle of the pack, but at least I am beating Lane.
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
I can't say much because I went 1-2 in the fantasy chat leagues last week. I'd still be in the playoffs in two of the leagues if they started today and I'm only one game out in the other league and in good shape in points scored. You just had to get that shot in Lane, though, didn't you!
Please rank the following teams in order of most likely to win this Sunday: Pitt @ Cincy, TB vs Sea, Hou vs Det or Tenn @ KC. Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
How about I pick one - Houston over Detroit. I write about this more in my Getting Defensive article on Insider but the gist is that the Lions have injury issues and other problems that will prevent them from the win.
How crappy are the Seahawks? I have been to every home game and let me tell you except for the Ram's they look AWFUL!
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Mike Sando had an interesting blog post about the Hawks yesterday. In a nutshell, he said that the poor play on offense (most of which is injury related) has been hurting their D. I think he's got a very good point and if the Hawks can get/stay healthy on offense in the second half of the season, they could make a run and possibly overtake Arizona if the Cards don't keep up their level of play.
Does Clady have better metrics than Long? What about Ryan Harris'?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
I can't yet comment on Harris but I will say that Clady has been a bit more consistent than Long. He's not knocking it out of the park metric-wise but he is holding his own, which is more than can be said for Long.
Which 3 QB's in each conference did you vote for in the ProBowl balloting?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Mikey, I wait until the very last minute to do my Pro Bowl voting. I treat them like many people treat voting for President - they wait until 49 debates are over and then make up their minds.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
If the Gus Bus can hit up the Lions' secondary for 296, Schaub might be able to go for 350 or more Sunday.
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Too true. The Detroit secondary is the worst in the NFL right now.
Randy (St. Paul)
The problem with Childress is that he had the most talent out of any team with a coaching change 3 years ago. Childress was brought in to groom a QB and to take the next level. Childress has more talent than Tice, but has fewer wins, that's why he should be fired.
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
I'd agree that he has to take the heat for Jackson not panning out. I would point out, however, that this season isn't anywhere near over. None of the NFC North teams are playing well and if Minnesota can find a way to post 9 wins, they may win the division. In other words, let's let this thing play out before saying Childress needs to be canned.
Tod (Sedona, Az)
KC- Are the Bronco's contenders or just waiting for the perfect moment to completely crush their fans dreams.
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
That D isn't any better than the defenses of the past two years (in fact, it may be worse) so I'd say Denver is short of being a true contender right now.
KC, I dont understand. Long hasnt given up a sack (and has gone against some good Dlines I might add) is mauling people. We must not be watching the same guy. Whats your beef with him?
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
John, I don't have the numbers right in front of me but Long's run metrics are subpar (at least they are when he has played at left tackle). He also gave up a holding call and a tripping penalty against Calvin Pace and both of those are nearly as costly as sacks.
I likes that story about Simeon Rice the other night on ESPN. Do you think he will get any calls to come back and play? I dont see why not?
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
I only saw the highlights of that show but it seemed to be making the case that Rice was being overlooked for reasons other than his physical diminishment. My scouting eye said he had lost all of his steps and that's why he's out of the league. Unless Rice found the fountain of youth and got some of those steps back, I'd say he'll be hard pressed to land another NFL gig.
KC - It's been a while, but since we're both still here at 5:00 thought I'd get your opinion. Ronde Barber = Done? And Talib looked better last week than he had beforehand. Thoughts?
KC Joyner (5:03 PM)
An 11.5 YPA on 26 passes says Barber may be close to having a fork stuck in him (to borrow the old phrase). And Talib has been playing a lot better of late, so count me on touting his play. Well, it's a couple of minutes after and I've got to run. Hope to see you all next week!