Keith Law

  (1:03 PM)

I bet I could throw a left-handed slider and get Ryan Howard to swing and miss ... and I'm right-handed.

Nathan (Minnesota)

Was that a balk last night? Sure looked like it to me.

Keith Law

  (1:04 PM)

Of course it was. Tim Welke had one job there - watch the pitcher - and he blew it. UMP FAIL. It does obscure the more serious question, which is: where the hell was Pena going?

Seth (SF)

Re Jason Donald: The guy is mashing in the AFL, and hit 14 dingers in around 350 ABs in AA. Especially given the Phils' power up the middle, are you telling me it would be a mistake to play him at 3B just because he might not project to be a 30 HR hitter?

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

That's not quite what I said. First of all, Donald's value is highest to a team willing to use him at the toughest defensive position he can play - certainly 2b and probably ss. Using him at 3b instead of trading him to a team that will put him in the middle infield, especially given the brutal market for FA infielders this year, is a loss of value. Second, the fact that Utley is so good at second base does not mean the Phils can just accept less production at a corner spot. You're giving back some of what you gain by having Utley. That's not saying playing Donald there is a "mistake," but that it's not optimal.

Graden (Seattle)

KLaw, I need your opinion. What do you think about the hiring of Jack Z as the Mariners' GM? It would seem to signal a rebuilding phase to me. Agree?

Keith Law

  (1:07 PM)

Yes, I think hiring a successful scouting director who hasn't been a GM before is a sign that you want to rebuild.

Jeff, Philly

How's this for an idea that could never happen. A team can only sell as many tickets to a World Series game as they averaged in attendance throughout the year. So by this rule the Ray's would only be able to sell 15,000 or so tickets to their World Series games. It's embarrassing that this team got no support in the regular season, even as it was clear they were legit.

Keith Law

  (1:09 PM)

I just looked at the Philly schedule for 1993 ... lot of sub-30K crowds there throughout the season, and some down towards 20K in the first month or two.

Mike A. (RAB)

Hey Keith, would you rather pay through the nose for Peavy, or give up a lesser package for a guy like Scott Olsen?

Keith Law

  (1:10 PM)

I'd probably prefer to target the younger guy with upside, although Olsen's makeup issues make him less than an ideal target.

Philip, College Station TX

KLaw I know Rangers questions aren't in style this time of year but... HOW have the rays gotten this far so fast? The Rangers have been terrible for as long as i can remember? Are they ever winners with John Daniels or for that matter Tom Hicks?

Keith Law

  (1:12 PM)

The Rays focused on run prevention. For years the Rangers focused on developing hitters and tried to solve their run-prevention problems through free agent pitchers. Now the Rangers are focused on building it from within - there's a huge wave of pitchers coming and a few plus defenders among their top hitting prospects, like Andrus and Borbon. In other words, it looks good.

Matt (Philly)

Not to start a fight, but what exactly is the weak side of the Phillies roster?

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

The back of their lineup and spots 2+ in their rotation.

Scott (Boston)

It's nice to see that you'd rather have the younger pitcher with upside and no issues- way to go out on a limb. Unless you're willing to trade a stud prospect (like Delmon Young or Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez), guys like that usually aren't available.

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

I never said anything about "no issues." Work on your reading comprehension, then try again.

Fred (OH)

Should the Indians use Jensen Lewis as their closer or try to acquire one?

Keith Law

  (1:14 PM)

Unless they can acquire a reliever they can make into a closer, they're better off trying to make one themselves, like Lewis. Paying full freight for a "proven" closer is nearly always a bad idea.

Brad (Georgia)

Keith, please tell me that Frank Wren isn't seriously considering giving up Johnson, Hanson and Schafer. If you were the Braves' GM, what kind of package would you give up for Peavy?

Keith Law

  (1:17 PM)

Atlanta isn't going to give that up, and it's not clear that that's even what the Padres are asking for - that was based on speculation by executives who talked to the NY Post's Joel Sherman for his article. I went off of that to show that those expectations were outsized. If I was Atlanta's GM, Hanson and Heyward would be off limits, and I wouldn't include Escobar. Johnson, Flowers, and maybe a now starter like Reyes or Campillo? Would probably have to add a good A-ball prospect. At that point, you're talking about something more in line with what Oakland got for Harden.

Carl (Duluth, MN)

Keith--love the work. Who has the most trade value for the Twins out of Blackburn, Perkins, and Young?

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

Young, by far. Fringe-stuff guys like Blackburn and Perkins don't have much trade value until they have a longer track record of major-league performance.

Tim (NYC)

I keep hearing about how BJ is good but Justin is more advanced? Is this actually true or is this just the perception because the Rays let BJ flounder at SS for so long while the D-Backs nipped that in the bud on draft day?

Keith Law

  (1:20 PM)

Justin has a higher ceiling, and he's more advanced right now than BJ was at the same age. He's not more advanced than BJ is today. And yes, I think that the constant positional switching hurt BJ's development.

Louis (Memphis)

I thought I read the Pedro Alvarez was playing in the AFL as the Pirates Class A exemption. But I havent seen any stats on him at all. Any status update on him?

Keith Law

  (1:21 PM)

I don't believe he's there.

Jeff (Atlanta)

When Bill James introduces his new metric for "clutchness" (Ex: Hits with RISP + RBI with 2 outs X 2 if postseason AB X 1.076 if game played on Fox in prime time + 10 bonus points if your name is David Eckstein - 5 points if Tim McCarver addresses Joe Buck by name during your AB/ Total AB) who will have a higher rating - Shane Victorino or Captain Jeter? I just made a donation to charity so I thought I'd submit a KLaw-baiting question.

Keith Law

  (1:21 PM)

Is it just me, or are the BBRAA typists pushing "clutchness" and makeup even more than ever now? It's like they're clinging to irrelevance.

Bill (Philly)

Yea the 1993 Phillies wound up drawing over three million fans while the Rays got 1.8 million. I guess that's about the same though because of those 20-30,000 fan crowds early in the year.

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

Philadelphia MSA population in 1993: 5.07 million. Tampa-St. Pete MSA population in 2007: 2.72 million.

Mike (MA)

I don't think the national media, and especially the boston media give varitek enough credit for his leadership and play calling abilities. Iexpect that if Boston doesn't resign him red sox will see their team ERA dramatically increase (and whatever team signs him for the tens of millions he is clearly worth will see a similar decrease in their team ERA). I also give him credit for striking out so many times with men on base, because as a leader, he sees that this is clearly beneficial to hitting into a double play. What are your thoughts?

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

Your BBRAA media credential for tonight's game will be available at window 436.

Ross (CA)

Yesterday Callis said he would prefer Cain over Peavy. How do you feel about that, and could you explain why?

Keith Law

  (1:26 PM)

I'd agree with Jim. Peavy's elbow problem + all those sliders are a concern. The drop in his peripherals this year is a big concern. And while he's signed and therefore under control, the deal ain't cheap. Cain hasn't had any injury issues, has three years of control left (without a lot of wins, which will hold down his arb awards somewhat), and projects to improve. He's not perfect - control is maybe a 45, and his ballpark is almost as friendly as PETCO - but that's what I meant by taking a shot on a young arm.

Lenny (Villanova, PA)

KLaw - would you like to weigh in on a 3-team trade proposed by Max Kellerman? The Yanks get Carlos Beltran, the Mets get Zach Greinke, David Dejesus and some guy named Veras, and the Royals get Cano and Kennedy.

Keith Law

  (1:27 PM)

I'm not discussing Max Kellerman trade proposals until he admits that he was wrong to dog me over Edwar "one of the ten best relievers in baseball" Ramirez. Oh, and that's a bad deal for the Mets - no reason for them to do that.

SalPacino (CT)

Keith, if the Mets were to explore trading Carlos Delgado (which I think they should) what teams would be interested and what could they expect to receive back?

Keith Law

  (1:29 PM)

I don't think there would be much market for his services - how many contenders are looking for a 1b, willing to give something up to acquire Delgado, and is willing to give up stuff to get him and pay his salary while they also find a RH platoon mate.

Bobby (Detroit, MI)

Hey KLAW, what is Wilkin Ramirez' ceiling? The guy can hit for AVG, power and has speed. Any chance he'll make Tigers fans forget the likes of Maybin and Gorkys Hernandez?

Keith Law

  (1:31 PM)

Guys who have that much trouble making contact have lower ceilings than the raw tools might indicate. I don't think he's a star in the making.

Tom ( Boston)

Keith, at what point do elite amateur players hire "advisors"? Junior yr. of HS? Summer between junior/senior yr? Earlier?

Keith Law

  (1:32 PM)

Depends on how good they are. Bryce Harper had already fired one and hired another before he turned 16.

Aaron (Boston, Mass)

Do you think this is a bad offer, a fair offer, or too much: Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Jed Lowrie, Ryan Kalish(or Lin) for Matt Cain?

Keith Law

  (1:33 PM)

That's way too much to give up.

J. P (Toronto)

Where would Bryce Harper go if he was eligible for next year draft?

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

#1 overall.

Eric (San Diego)

What are your thougts on Matt LaPorta? There seems to be some very different views among scouts on his eventual upside. Some love him and others call him solid.

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

I'm in the second camp. Not a superstar or a Pronk replacement. Very good player, produces lots of power, mediocre defense at 1b, doesn't hit for much average.

Andy (Tampa)

The thought down hear in Tampa is that last night was no big deal because the Rays have the advantage in starting pitching in every game Hamels isn't pitching. Would you agree with this thought?

Keith Law

  (1:35 PM)

There's no such thing as a "no big deal" game in a World Series. That said, Hamels/Kazmir was the worst pitching matchup of the series for TB. Losing tonight would be a much bigger deal, for a ton of reasons.

Ryan (DC)

Really... Bryce Harper would be drafted over Strasburg?

Keith Law

  (1:36 PM)

I'm saying I would take him over Strasburg. 16-year-old catcher with ++ arm, polished bat, and power? His skill set and polish are a more scarce package than a potential #1 starter.

Josh (Philly)

I realize Brett Myers hasn't been sensational in the postseason, but why is he considered by the media to be so overmatched by Shields? These guys both have nasty stuff if they are locating. So far in the playoffs, Myers has 2 wins to Shields' 1. Wouldn't the attitude Myers brings out to the mound give an advantage to the Phils?

Keith Law

  (1:40 PM)

Shields has a much more consistent track record both in terms of having that "nasty stuff" every time out and in terms of throwing strikes and getting hitters out. Shields actually has a lower ERA in the postseason than Myers does against better competition, although we're talking tiny samples. Speaking of Myers' attitude, how many times will the FOX announcers mention the fact that the guy beat his wife? I'm guessing none. But we sure did hear about how despicable Manny was.

Mr Must See TV

KLAW, if you're the Mets, what is the best game plan? I say (1) resign Perez, (2) sign O. Hudson to solidify the infield defense and clubhouse, (3) trade for J.J. Putz, and (4) play Murphy in left. Thoughts?

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

No problems with 1 and 4. Hudson's defense took a big hit this year, and I couldn't care less about solidifying the clubhouse. The clubhouse will be "solid" when they win. As for Putz, let's give the new GM in Seattle a few minutes to settle into his chair.

Jim (Chicago, IL)

With Triunfel's great AFL performance where would you put him among the top prospects?

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

He's top 15 and there's a good chance he'll be in my top 10.

Jeff (LA)

Re: Cain. You mentioned arb awards. Isn't Cain signed to a long-term contract already? Goes until 2011 or so? Doesn't change anything, but the wins leading to arb awards confused me a little?

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

You're absolutely right - signed through 2010 with an option for 2011. And absurdly cheap, too.

Chris (NYC)

Was wondering if you had any updated thoughts on Papelbon after the playoffs. Obviously the results were better, and it seemed like he used the split-piece a little more. Any idea why that all changed?

Keith Law

  (1:43 PM)

The monopitch approach wasn't working. I don't think he needs to throw a ton of offspeed pitches - just enough to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball.

Chris (Arizona)

Given his success in game 7, Do you think the Rays will not trade one of their starting pitchers to make room for him on their starting rotation and keep him as a dominant closer ALA Papelbon?

Keith Law

  (1:44 PM)

Are you talking about Price? He's a starter. This is just a warmup.

Bryan (Philly)

Isn't true that TB DRays were involved with the murder of The Crocodile Hunter?

Keith Law

  (1:44 PM)

No, I understand the prime suspect was Ryan Madson.

Steven (Grand Forks)

Minneapolis papers have been talking about a D. Young for Cain swap. Wishful thinking by them aside, what should the Twins do to improve this offseason?

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Use the outfield surplus to get some infield help (well, not 1b). Focus on improving the team's OBP - you're not hitting .300+ with RISP again, sorry. They'll have a tough decision with Gomez - send him down to let him develop as a hitter, or play him in CF in Minnesota because he's probably the best defensive CF in the game right now. Cain ... is their rotation the big problem? I keep coming back to the infield. Their primary 2b, ss, & 3b all slugged under .400 and posted OBPs under .350 this year. That's ... bad.

Travis (PHX)

Keith, what are the other tools you look for in a position player other than the basic five?

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Plate discipline. Pitch recognition. Instincts (fielding and baserunning). General feel for the game/game awareness. Clutchiness. Scrappiness.

Stack (NJ)

There is only one closer who can get away with the monopitch approach and that man is Mariano Rivera.

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

The cutter - eppur si muove.

Eric (NYC)

Will Change-ups from RHP's keep Howard off-balance like Sliders from LHP? Should that be the Rays' plan for the next 3 games?

Keith Law

  (1:50 PM)

No, you might see him fooled on a few changeups, but he can hit the ball on the outer half out of the park to left. I haven't seen him have many bad ABs against right-handed pitchers.

Jim(Jackson, TN)

Hey, I remember you answering this in a previous chat but do you have a favorite language-learning software? I just finished grad school and I have alot of free time now.

Keith Law

  (1:50 PM)

Pimsleur. Buy a Comprehensive set (try eBay or just google it and you'll get ads for vendors).

evan (philly)

Why are people convinced with making you pick the Phillies to win tonight? The game will be played in 7 hours, why don't they just wait and watch the game? You are only giving your educated guess based on the statistics. It's as if they think the Phillies can't win unless you pick them. I'm a phillies fan but don't mind you think they will lose because it's played on the field. At least you gave great support to your prediction, unlike some of your colleagues.

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

Plus isn't a pick in any particular game, at best, 60/40? I said the Phillies would win both of Hamels' starts ... hold that thought.

Bill (Philly)

I know I'm sending it in early but I just read your scouting report/predictions for the world series. I'm Surprised you picked the rays in so few games given that you said that Hamels might win both. It seems a little off that you think that the Phillies offense, which put up nearly eight hundred runs while running out the pitcher in the nine hole (Brett's post season hitting numbers aside) can't win one game. Given that the rays do have superior starting pitching, do you really believe that the offense can't win one? And even if they can't, that myers won't go out there and be the pitcher he is every once in a while when it matters most? It just seems short sighted to me to pick the rays in anything less than seven if you give Hamels the wins.

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

As I was saying, I said I thought the Phils would win both of Hamels' starts, but that means that maybe they're 55/45 favorites in those games, so their expected value in those two games was 1.1 wins. Sure, they might steal a game where their offense tees off on Andy Sonnanstine while Joe Blanton pitches like a man possessed ... but it's equally likely that Kazmir will just outpitch Hamels like he nearly did last night.

Mike (San Diego)

Hey Keith, who is this Tyler Flowers guy? He is raking in the AFL.

Keith Law

  (1:53 PM)

Catcher, OK behind the plate, great eye/plate discipline, average power. Bat speed's a little slow so I'm not sure he's a big average hitter, but at that position? He's a top 100 prospect, or sure. And I bet that the Padres are all over him.

Bryan (NY)

Is JJ Putz a fit for the Mets? Any chance he gets moved this offseason and what would it take to get a deal done?

Keith Law

  (1:56 PM)

OK, I'll indulge. What do the Mets have that the Mariners might want? I assume the Mets won't give up Fernando Martinez or Wilmer Flores. Beyond them ... Niese? OK. What else? It gets thin pretty quickly in terms of tradeable prospects for a front-line player.

Adam (Columbus, OH)

What is your opinion in Ryan Madson? He seems to work that fastball/changeup combo pretty well. I was particularly impressed with how he piched Upton. If he elevates one of the fastballs it's trouble, but where he hit them (inside corner at the knees) was perfect.

Keith Law

  (1:56 PM)

That's about my opinion of him. Could probably close if asked to do so. Great changeup, commands his fastball, can put it by guys above the zone but, as you said, it's risky.

Nick (Long Island, NY)

Carp, Heilman, and Kunz for Putz?

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

Exactly. That's not happening.

Josh (CT)

Ny Post says the Yankees are looking at Mike Cameron. At that point, give me Brett Gardner! What us do you see the Yankees doing, not named CC or AJ...

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

I'd be fine with Cameron for a year. The issue is what if Jackson isn't the answer next fall either.

Drew (Philly)

KLaw, I belive that is an unfair statement about Brett Myers. I agree what he did to his wife was heinous and should not be taken lightly. However, when talking about Manny it was about his attitude within the confines of playing the game of baseball.

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

Your priorities are defective. But fine, how about this: hitting your wife is illegal and could lead to jail time (well, if you weren't famous and treated with kid gloves by the legal system). It's irresponsible to take the risk of missing that much time when your team is depending on you. How about that? But we shouldn't have to come to that point. What Ramirez did - which has been blown way out of proportion - is like burping without covering your mouth compared to what Myers did.

Brett (Mount Prospect, IL)

Jake Peavy's career ERA is more than a run higher on the road than in that cave he plays in at home. His HR rate is also more than double on the road. Overall his numbers are still very good, but is he worth as much as Haren, who came to AAAA as an already accomplished MLB pitcher?

Keith Law

  (2:01 PM)

I don't get too worked up over H/R splits usually, but his is significant AND his pitching approach works particularly well in that park. He has the hardware, though, and the name value, neither of which were part of Haren's appeal.

Max (st.louis,MO)

Hey Keith, I doubt you remember me but I sat on a plane next to you from boston to detroit at the end of july. i'm an architecture student... we discussed the cardinals and I was wondering if you thought there was any chance the Peavy trade was going to go down, and if it would be worth trading Rasmus... etc. Its been great reading your articles the past couple months.. Cheers!

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

I do remember you. The Cards seemed to indicate that they're not players for Peavy, and I wouldn't include Rasmus in such a deal. The Padres are saying, at least for now, that they want major-league ready up-the-middle players. Other than Rasmus, St. Louis doesn't really have that - they're looking for those guys themselves.

Joe (Grand Rapids, MI)

He graduated with honors from Harvard University and received his Master of Business Administration from Carnegie Mellon's Tepper School of Business....you are a smart guy. Why baseball?

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

It's more fun than what my classmates do for their livings.

Jay (LA)

Do you agree the same should apply to Joba and his DUI? Media seems to act like DUIs are no big deal. They are a big deal.

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

I believe I'm on record as saying I think DUIs are a pretty huge deal.

Jon V. (Cleveland, OH)

Would the Indians be best served by trading Shoppach while his value is high knowing that Victor can hold down the position for the next year or two and that Carlos Santana is waiting in the wings? What would be a reasonable return for him given the lack of quality starting Catchers in baseball?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

I hadn't thought of that, but it's a good point. If there's a perception that Shoppach can play every day, but he won't play every day in Cleveland, they should cash that in.

J.G. (Philly)

Yo Keith, Did it ever occur to you that bringing up Brett Myers incident would be beating a dead horse? It was, after all, June 24, 2006.

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

Yeah, I'm sure his wife has forgotten all about it...

John (NY)

Did you watch the "Clutch" special on the Worldwide Leader last night?

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

The Speed Channel ran a whole show on manual transmissions?

Mike A. (RAB)

Will Harper stay behind the plate? Is he at that Mauer/Wieters level of prospecty awesomeness?

Keith Law

  (2:05 PM)

Yes, I don't see any reason right now to project him to move off the position. He has the tools to play it. He could outgrow it, since he's 6'3" already at age 16.

Chris: Kennewick WA

Keith, What do you think of Andrew Brackman and Jeremy Bleich down in Hawaii, is Brackman's stuff back minus the control for now and could Bleich be Andy Pettite with less fastball?

Keith Law

  (2:06 PM)

I've talked to a few scouts who've been there. Brackman's stuff is back, which is step one after Tommy John. Bleich could be Pettitte with less fastball, less cutter, less command, and less durability, sure.

Matt J. (Baltimore, MD)

Klaw - Wondering if you saw Brandon Snyder at the AFL, and if he can become an everyday 1B for the O's at some point.

Keith Law

  (2:07 PM)

Yes, saw him, liked the swing and the raw power, but he needs to show he can drop the head of the bat and get to the ball down. Potential is there for him to be an everyday 1b offensively.

John (Portland, ME)

Would Holliday represent an upgrade over Bay for the Red Sox?

Keith Law

  (2:07 PM)

No.

Off-Speed Pitch (Philadelphia)

Would you believe Ryan Howard saw me the other day and acted like he doesn't even know who I am!?

Joshua (Annapolis, MD)

Why can't Ryan Howard hit a breaking ball? Will this get better, or should I pray that Charlie starts hitting Chooch Ruiz in the cleanup spot?

Keith Law

  (2:09 PM)

I work under the assumption that a hitter who's 30ish and hasn't figured out how to do X at the plate (like hit the slider from LHP) isn't going to do so. Howard's stats vs LHP have gone down as the book on him has gotten around and around ... and around ...

mike - orlando, FL

KK, who are a few in the AFL that have really surprised you so far?

Keith Law

  (2:09 PM)

I left Arizona after the first week.

Jeff, Houston TX

Keith, What do you think of Lincecum and Lee winning the player's choice award for best pitcher in their respective leagues? It doesn't seem to me Lincecum was the best pitcher in the NL? (Santana?)

Keith Law

  (2:10 PM)

Santana was slightly better than Lincecum was it was close. Didn't the players pick Hamilton as their AL MVP-like-award thing? Yeah, that was worse.

Craig (Chicago, Illinois)

Did any good come of the cardinals in the AFL? Based on the stats, nobody seemed to impress.

Keith Law

  (2:12 PM)

Wallace wasn't great, but we've got plenty of evidence he's going to hit. Ottavino was his usual self, threw hard, poor command, no good second pitch. You can have Shane Robinson - in fact, you can probably take him home in your shirt pocket.

Derek (FL)

What are your thoughts about the cowbells in TB? Personally I think they're stupid and makes it seem like the tea is playing in a barn. I could also do without the towels and thundersticks too. What happened to just coming to a game and cheering without noise makers?

Keith Law

  (2:13 PM)

I have no comeback for that. I think all of those noisemakers suck.

Greg (philly)

Is Ryan Howard turning into a real life Pedro Cerrano?

Keith Law

  (2:13 PM)

Haven't seen his locker.

Rick (Athens, GA)

Keith, would your opinion of the Hanson/Schafer/Escobar proposal change at all if the Padres included Khalil Greene?

Keith Law

  (2:14 PM)

No, I don't think Greene is an everyday SS. Refuses to walk and can't hit the breaking ball.

GW, San Antonio, Tx.

Why is it that the announcers mention David Price went to Vanderbilt every time his name comes up? It doesn't seem like they announce colleges on other young players.

Keith Law

  (2:15 PM)

Um ... pro-SEC-private-school bias?

Brett (Mount Prospect, IL)

Madison Bumgarner or Jarrod Parker?

Keith Law

  (2:15 PM)

Parker.

Jim (DC)

What would your scouting report for Grant Green be? Do you think he can stay at SS?

Keith Law

  (2:16 PM)

I'll quote myself - this is from my Cape Cod writeup: "He's built like Alex Rodriguez at the same age, maybe slightly behind A-Rod strength-wise. His swing isn't pretty, but it works, and he gets significant power into it from his wrists and arms. He's playable at short with a strong arm. The question about Green is whether he's an impact guy worthy of a #1 overall pick, or just an above-average player and borderline star who should go in the top ten but not with the first pick."

Bryan (Tampa, FL)

I read your blog and see that you took a look at Desmond Jennings. How good will he become in your opinion?

Keith Law

  (2:17 PM)

It was just a BP session, not a game. The good news is that he looked healthy - swing wasn't inhibited (he had shoulder surgery). He lost a lot of development time, but I still think we're looking at an All-Star.

Bill (Philly)

Who was the best position player (or whatever the stupid award is) in the AL this year? Hamilton doesn't seem like the worst choice, since he did finish up sixth in OPS and most of the people in front of him got either no publicity, way fewer at-bats or had what most would consider a down year for them (A-ROD). Youkilis?

Keith Law

  (2:18 PM)

Sizemore, A-Rod, Youkilis, Pedroia, Mauer are all better choices than Hamilton.

Stephen, San Diego

Answer me this, KLaw, why do you hate the Padres so much?

Keith Law

  (2:18 PM)

Because they remind me of the Phillies.

Steve (San Diego)

How many players actually have college degrees? When I was explaining the MLB draft proccess to my girlfriend she asked me this question and I had no clue. I guessed around 50.

Keith Law

  (2:19 PM)

That's a good question, but I bet you're right. Most big-leaguers signed out of high school or before completing college. Kinsler was a college senior, I believe, and so was Aviles ($1000 signing bonus!).

Matt

how many Giants make your top 100

Keith Law

  (2:22 PM)

Off the top of my head ... Villalona, Alderson, Bumgarner, Posey are definites. (Was checking Sandoval - too many AB to qualify.) Sosa and Gillaspie would be possibilities.

Matt (Chicago)

I don't get to see Mauer a ton, what makes him a better MVP candidate than say Soto or McCann(even though in the nl)? Defense? because his OPS is worse than those guys. Also are you in the Pujols is the mvp camp or the camp against him that says his superior stats dont matter because he was unable to miraculously make his team better and go to the playoffs?

Keith Law

  (2:23 PM)

Pujols is the clear MVP in the NL. Mauer's OPS is very OBP-heavy - OPS underweights OBP by quite a bit.

Bobby, NY

How is the 2009 Draft shaping up compared to the previous 2 or 3?

Keith Law

  (2:23 PM)

Thin at the top right now. HS bats aren't there. HS arms aren't much better. College SP is a pretty deep group with a strong front 4-6 guys.

Joshua (Annapolis, MD)

My wife would like to learn Portuguese, but I keep arguing that it is one of the most useless of the major European languages. There's no literature in it, no one speaks it except the Portuguese and the Brazilians. Back me up here, you only use it to impress the ladies, am I right?

Keith Law

  (2:24 PM)

Those are some fine-looking ladies, Joshua.

Tony (Philly)

We're looking at rain here on Saturday. If the games get pushed back a day do you start Hamels in game 4 on nomrmal rest or do you keep with the rotation?

Keith Law

  (2:24 PM)

If I can start Hamels on normal rest in game 4, I do it. The only way I wouldn't would be if the team was up 3-0 at the time.

Mike from Smithtown, NY

Keith, which of these college shortstops would you draft first -- Rice's Rick Hague or G-Tech's Derek Dietrich? Is either a first round caliber talent in 2010?

Keith Law

  (2:25 PM)

Dietrich, and he is a potential first-rounder.

Mikey (Philly)

Are you angry because you are not allowed to ride all of the rides at an amusement park?

Keith Law

  (2:25 PM)

Sorry, I don't know when Tim is chatting.

Greg (Boston)

Is Adam Loewen the next Rick Ankiel?

Keith Law

  (2:25 PM)

No.

evan (philly)

With the play of Marson and Donald this year, how many Phillies prospects do you believe will make it in to your top 100?

Keith Law

  (2:27 PM)

Three or four. Good chance none is in the top 40.

Mike Chicago

When Mark Prior graduated from USC a few years back while still with the Cubs the number of college grads in MLB was reported at 18.

Keith Law

  (2:28 PM)

There you go. A lot of minor-leaguers go back to get their degrees using the MLB scholarship plan after they're released.

cam (eugene)

Any thoughts on Rodger Keishnick? Did you see him at Tech? What could his power look like?

Keith Law

  (2:28 PM)

He's got some mechanical issues that prevent him from getting to his power - his swing is all hands and arms at this point and his lower half doesn't get involved. Good swing though, good athlete, good arm in RF.

Vern (SF)

Word in SF is that Posey looked awful behind the plate in Hawaii. They send him to AZ to get straight, 5 passed balls in 2 games. Any chance he lands at 3B and Sandoval stays behind the dish?

Keith Law

  (2:29 PM)

You're letting a few games in Hawaii outweigh Posey's history as a catcher. He's staying at c, period.

Shane (SoCal)

I've never heard of Pimsleur before this chat. Any opinion on Rosetta Stone, Keith?

Keith Law

  (2:30 PM)

I have used Rosetta Stone. I don't like the method and I didn't see results.

Eric B (Waltham, MA)

And lastly, last time I heard a figure it was like five MLBers with college degrees. Ausmus, Glanville, Chris Young (the pitcher), and a couple of others. (I always thought it was funny that Young wrote his senior thesis on Jackie Robinson. At Princeton! I did a book report on Roy Campanella in the fourth grade, so where's my Princeton degree?) Obviously, the list is dated, but I can't imagine there are a whole lot more now.

Keith Law

  (2:30 PM)

I actually wrote a paper in B-school on Branch Rickey as a "creative destruction" entrepreneur.

Dave (Wayne, NJ)

With Fernando Martinez' stock seemingly on the decline, would any Mets' prospect be a possibility for your top 100?

Keith Law

  (2:31 PM)

Martinez' stock isn't on the decline, and he'll still be in the top 20-25 for me. Flores is a possibility, as is Niese.

Josh (CT)

Why haven't the Yankees brought up Mark Melacon to be tutored by Mariano Rivera?He is being called the replacement to Mo...

Keith Law

  (2:32 PM)

This was his first year back after surgery. As it was the year was a big success - he stayed healthy and reached AAA.

Mike from NY

Keith, how can we e-mail you?

Keith Law

  (2:33 PM)

Through my ESPN mailbag.

Keith Law

  (2:33 PM)

...although I am WAY behind on answering those right now.

Tyler (STL)

When do YOU bunt a runner over? Me personally, I hate it unless it's the tying or winning run in the 8th or 9th.

Keith Law

  (2:34 PM)

I'm with you. Of course you usually have the pitcher bunt, and there are some #8-9 hitters who are bad enough that, say, bunting 0 outs 1st/2nd to get 1 out 2nd/3rd might make sense. I'm a much bigger fan of the bunt for a hit in a sacrifice situation - downside is still okay, upside is great, and you increase the chance that the defense will do something stupid.

Josh Chicago

I've asked this a few times and never gotten a response. Does Josh Fields still project as a solid everyday 3b for the White Sox? Sending him to the minors this years seemed to hurt his development..

Keith Law

  (2:35 PM)

Yes, I'm still a believer.

Mike (Seattle)

Ackley of UNC. Best bat in the next draft?

Keith Law

  (2:36 PM)

No, Green is. Ackley's power is limited; you're probably talking about a great leadoff guy who can play + defense in center, which is still a top-10 pick, probably top-5.

Justin (Evansville, IN)

The number of Padre minor league pitchers who have had to undergo TJ surgery is incredible, (Carillo,Bush, Schimdt, Stauffer, and Garrison just off the top of my head). Is this just a case of bad luck or more indicative of some kind of problem with the way they use their pitchers? Thank you

Keith Law

  (2:37 PM)

Stauffer hurt his shoulder. Bush was just a freak thing, since he'd been off a mound for two years. Josh Geer probably needs TJ surgery now. It's alarming but I don't know if that's a significant sample, since every team has its share of TJ surgeries. Rosario and McGowan both had it while I was with Toronto.

Jeff (Detroit)

Did you see Freddy Garcia pitch during the last couple of weeks of the season? Do you think he has anything left to give the Tigers or some other organization next season?

Keith Law

  (2:37 PM)

I'd offer him a minor league contract, but I'm not optimistic.

STeve (DC)

Why wouldn't you start Hamels on normal rest if up 3-0? If he's ok to pitch in a higher leverage game (which is how I'd characterize a game if it were 2-1 or 1-2), why wouldn't you want to take your best chance to close it out right there? Don't you want to step on the throat when you can?

Keith Law

  (2:38 PM)

He's thrown a ton of innings and pitches this year. If I can give him a break without seriously jeopardizing my chances of winning the WS, I do it.

jeff (nyc)

What year do you see Darvish in MLB? Is his upside as a #1 or #2?

Keith Law

  (2:38 PM)

I think he has 4 or 5 years to go before he's a free agent. Any other answer is a complete guess.

mymrbig (New Orleans)

Assuming Strasburg, Green, and White are off the board when the Pirates pick, how much does the presence of McCutchen affect any decision regarding Ackley? How much should it affect their decision?

Keith Law

  (2:39 PM)

Best player available. If that's Ackley, then you take him. Could be Crow or Gibson or Oliver or Tate, too.

brad (Detroit)

Isn't Robbie Shields suppose to be the best ss in College after Green, not Deitrich?

Keith Law

  (2:39 PM)

You're mixing years - Dietrich is a year behind the other guys.

Eric B (Waltham, MA)

Fine. I'll agree that there is a place for sports-related papers in non-sports fields in college. For example, Doug Glanville did his senior paper on the viability of a new ballpark in Philly. But Young's was described as simply "on Jackie Robinson," which makes it sound like a book report. And good for you for holding the line on Myers. Beating a wife < sitting against Joba? Wow, Drew in Philly. Wow.

Keith Law

  (2:42 PM)

Also, the Manny criticism is out of control. Yes, he took some ABs off, and I called him on not running out a GIDP against the Angels. But his performance as a whole was excellent when he was allegedly dogging it: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1052 He hit .347/.473/.587 in July. The evidence that he severely hurt the team just isn't there.

Chris: (Fresno, CA.)

Can Kevin Frandsen and Burris make up an adequate up the middle tandem?

Keith Law

  (2:42 PM)

No.

Eddie (Hoboken, NJ)

Word getting around the Yanks will not get Tex, CC, or Lowe. Uh, is there a plan B?

Keith Law

  (2:43 PM)

They're not even free agents yet. Tell Word to chill.

Rich ( Parker, Co )

Buster, would a package of Hughes, Kennedy, Montero & Jackson get you Lincecum??

Keith Law

  (2:43 PM)

Don't call me "buster," pal.

Keith Law

  (2:43 PM)

Thanks for the questions - I'll be back next week.