ESPN

Buzzmaster

  (7:25 PM)

Rob Neyer will be by to chat about Game 4 of the 2008 World Series, here at 8 PM ET!

Alex (Kansas City)

Isn't it 8 pm ET yet?

Rob Neyer

  (8:15 PM)

Actually a little bit after. I know we've been slapping 5pm on these chats, but they haven't been going live in a big way until a bit after 5, which means at 5 I don't have enough questions to get started. Good to go now, though!

Ed (Lemoyne)

Looking forward to it. Rob what are your thoughts about tonights game?

Rob Neyer

  (8:16 PM)

I think if the Rays don't win the Series is just about over, and that if the game's close we'll see David Price for 2-3 innings.

Paul (Canada)

Why has Sonnanstine only pitched twice in these playoffs? Especially since he has been so dominant.

Rob Neyer

  (8:17 PM)

Well, he's their No. 4 guy, and pretty clearly the Rays' fourth-best starter. Which on this staff is nothing to sneeze at.

Pat (Tampa)

Do you think that david Price only has two pitches the slider, and that fastball...

Rob Neyer

  (8:18 PM)

I'm sure he has other pitches, but doesn't really need them as a reliever because he can come in and just throw hard.

Mike (Boston)

Another righthander, another start by Pedro Feliz. Hmmm.

Rob Neyer

  (8:19 PM)

Yeah, well, Zobrist started against Hamels in Game 1 and Gross started against Moyer in Game 3. So it's not like either manager's playing the obvious percentages.

GatorFan (Tampa)

Rob, you missed your prediction 4-1 Rays, do you think they will still win?

Rob Neyer

  (8:20 PM)

I do. I think they'll bust out tonight a little bit, lose tomorrow night, then take the last two back home. How's that for specific?

Bill (MI)

Has the game started yet or is there technical problems with the Gamecast?

Rob Neyer

  (8:22 PM)

The game hasn't started yet, Bill. I have a tough time finding out when we're supposed to actually see the first pitch . . . Anyone know for sure?

Bryan (Baltimore)

Isn't it 8:38?

Rob Neyer

  (8:29 PM)

Yeah, that sounds right. I'll lobby my superiors to start listing *actual* game times on the site or, at the very least, not advertise this chat until 8:20 or :30.

Francisco (Mata)

Does ESPN will brocast this game on ESPN radio station

Rob Neyer

  (8:30 PM)

Francisco, many (and perhaps most) of the ESPN Radio affiliates around the U.S. But I suspect that ESPN does not have rights for broadcast over the Web.

Pete (NYC)

Rob, any thoughts on the blown call at first last night that cost the Phillies 2 runs? It really wasn't that close when looking at the replay, and if the umpire called it safe b/c he didn't hear it hit the mitt, why not ask for some help from the home plate umpire?

Rob Neyer

  (8:31 PM)

The plate umpire couldn't have seen that, Pete. Now, if they'd used instant replay...

jason (las vegas)

Here we go baseball fans!

Rob Neyer

  (8:32 PM)

Yep. First pitch: 8:31 Eastern Daylight Time. I'll shoot for starting tomorrow night's chat at 8:15.

Mitch (Michigan)

That was almost the best start you could ask for...

Rob Neyer

  (8:34 PM)

You mean Iwamura's fly to the warning track? He did see a lot of pitches and wound up hitting the ball hard. I saw an amazing note about him this morning . . . In his last three seasons in Japan, Iwamura averaged 35 homers per season. In two MLB seasons he's got 13, total.

Reif (Denver)

Is it me, or are they playing in the fog?

Rob Neyer

  (8:36 PM)

It's not just you, but I think we're seeing the remnants of fireworks or teargas or something. You know those Phillies phans...

PBJ (UCLA)

Guess MLB really is the best baseball in the world

Rob Neyer

  (8:37 PM)

You think? The power drop for Japanese players joining MLB is pretty striking.

DONGO (LAXZER)

why did the game start so late

Rob Neyer

  (8:39 PM)

They've all been starting this late, Dongo of Laxzer. The listed 8pm starting time is a fraud, a travesty of a mockery of a sham.

Sam (ATL)

Rob your back! where were you last night??

Rob Neyer

  (8:40 PM)

Just had the night off, Sam. Don't want you getting bored with me. I'll be back tomorrow night, and then for Game 7 if there is one. But thanks for asking.

pvt candelaria (camp shelby)

thats fasle advertising

Rob Neyer

  (8:40 PM)

I don't know about that. But it's definitely something.

Bryan (Baltimore)

I saw some analyst say that they would split up Utley and Howard so that a lefty reliever would have to face a RH hitter in between them. Would that be a smart thing to do, or do you stick with what got you here?

Rob Neyer

  (8:42 PM)

I wouldn't put them together in *my* lineup. Why not throw Burrell between them?

Sam (Berkeley)

Considering his ability at 2nd, is Chase Utley the best player in Baseball?

Rob Neyer

  (8:42 PM)

I don't believe he's the best, Sam. But you're right: When his outstanding defense is considered, he moves way up the list.

Dylan (Canada)

Wow, quite the shift for Utley...doesn't strike me as teh type of player to get that treatment

Rob Neyer

  (8:44 PM)

I'm sure the alignment is based on solid data, Dylan.

Steiny (NYC)

They pitched around Chase Utley with first base open. Smart move?

Rob Neyer

  (8:44 PM)

I don't like it one bit. Putting a runner on with one out usually doesn't turn out well.

Jim (NJ)

Was that walk intentional, in hopes of a Ryan Howard double play?

Rob Neyer

  (8:45 PM)

I think it was semi-intentional, Jim. Once Sonnanstine missed with the first couple of pitches he sort of gave up.

Mike (NC)

Another terrible call

Rob Neyer

  (8:47 PM)

Yeah, that was absolutely BRUTAL call, and much worse than the blown call at first last night. That was defensible because the play was close and the umpire couldn't actually see the ball in the glove. But just now, Longoria clearly tagged Rollins' rear end about two feet away from the umpire, who had a perfect view the whole way.

Bret (California)

this is why baseball is the worst sport...the umpires control the game/outcome, not the players

Rob Neyer

  (8:47 PM)

As opposed to the other sports, how exactly?

Chris (Las Vegas)

As bad as the call was, the bigger mistake was not taking the 1-6/5-3

Rob Neyer

  (8:48 PM)

Sonnanstine probably should gone to second base, with a good shot at doubling up Howard. But that doesn't excuse the terrible call.

Robert (Houston)

Is this the worst umpired world series ever?

Rob Neyer

  (8:50 PM)

Robert, that's an impossible question to answer . . . For me, right now. But it's a question that could, with a great deal of work, be answered with some degree of precision. A fun winter project if one had access to video of all the World Series games.

Angelo (Australia)

Do they have the technology to go to a video umpire for close calls?

Rob Neyer

  (8:51 PM)

Angelo, they've got the technology, but they refuse to use it for anything except disputed home runs.

Bradford (Austin)

I'm sure it will come eventually, and they just want to phase this replay thing in slowly, but a replay of that would have taken just about as long as it took for Maddon to come out and argue.

Rob Neyer

  (8:52 PM)

I don't know, Bradford. The Commissioner says they're not going any farther while *he's* running things. But yes, in the long term some expansion is almost inevitable.

Hutch (Quad Cities)

It is not like the nfl where you look for a knee down or a foot in bound.How can you tell if a glove touches a person or not!

Rob Neyer

  (8:55 PM)

Hutch, I just saw it on my TV!

Matthew (Pennsburg, PA)

Hey Rob, how about Pena and Longoria, combined 0-24 in the Series!

Rob Neyer

  (8:55 PM)

No question, that's the story of this Series so far. I'm reminded of Bagwell and Biggio...

James (Indianapolis)

Explain to me how replay would work logisitically in your mind? Like, a coach's challenge system?

Rob Neyer

  (8:58 PM)

I haven't thought through all the issues, James. The first step is to decide that it's kind of a good idea to get the calls right, particularly in October. From there it's just a matter of refining your system.

Tom (Cville)

Rob, who/what is Buzzmaster?

Rob Neyer

  (9:00 PM)

Buzzmaster's an animatronic character invented by Disney Imagineers, in a secret facility in Anaheim. And I think I've already said too much about it.

Matt (West Lafayette, IN)

Why not just have someone upstairs looking at every play, and if there is a correction to be made they just buzz the home plate ump? It'd take 10 seconds. Too bad the proud, Commie, Union umps would never allow it.

Rob Neyer

  (9:01 PM)

In all seriousness, you know what's sort of funny? Except for when it comes to labor issues -- and perhaps just their *own* labor -- umpires are about as conservative a group of men as you'll find. At least the older ones.

Ben (Chester, PA)

Rob, what do you think of Blanton so far?

Rob Neyer

  (9:01 PM)

He's looked good, but I have to say the Rays have swung at some bad pitches and missed some good ones.

Johnboy (Syracuse, NY)

I know you won't post this, but I just want to let you know that I think Tim McCarver (sp) is historically the worst announcer in the history of baseball. He keeps focusing on a double-play and completely ignores the absolutely most horrible call I have ever seen in World Series history.

Rob Neyer

  (9:03 PM)

He's not the worst. He's nowhere near the worst. I do think it's odd that they're giving the umpire a pass because a player made a mental mistake.

nate (philly)

side issue: buck mentioned the park factor again. You'd think they were playing in coors!

Rob Neyer

  (9:06 PM)

It's a good hitter's park, no question. But I believe the Phillies did lead the NL this season in *road* home runs. Their team power is legit.

Ali (Boston)

What 6-4-3 mean? I noticed they say it when a double play happens.

Rob Neyer

  (9:07 PM)

Every defensive position is assigned a number. In this case, it's shortstop (6) to second baseman (4) to first baseman (3).

Michael (TB)

Joe Buck also said Rollins is the man who makes the offense go... I thought it was Howard with his 48 HRs and league leading RBIs..

Rob Neyer

  (9:08 PM)

And I thought it was Chase Utley with his outstanding on-base percentage. And so the fighting continues...

zack (NJ)

Why do all of the analysts have no love for the Phillies? No matter what happens wether it be Pena and Longoria 0-24 or hating on the philly staff, the espn analysts always predict Tampa to win every night

Rob Neyer

  (9:09 PM)

Simple reason, Zack: On paper -- which is about all we have to go on -- the Rays have the edge in starting pitchers in every game that Cole Hamels doesn't start. And Hamels' first start was in St. Pete. I'm sure the Phillies will be favored in Game 5.

Bridget (Philly)

I agree Zack...I think people don't want to see us win because of how the fans act, but are we wrong for letting the players know how we feel?

Rob Neyer

  (9:10 PM)

Very, very, very, very few "people" would root against a team because of its fans. If "people" are rooting for the Rays it's because they're rooting for the *story*.

Dan (Kanagawa, Japan)

Where do you rank Mike Schmidt all time among third basemen?

Rob Neyer

  (9:11 PM)

Number 1, by a lot. A-Rod might wind up ahead of him, but we're a few years away from that.

Eugene (Philadelphia)

Why does it say howard is 0 for 1? I thought he reached safely and no one got out?

Rob Neyer

  (9:16 PM)

It's still a fielder's choice, Eugene, and thus an official hitless at-bat. Sorry.

Mike (NM)

Argh, another wasted opportunity. All these young ones are trying to do is hit homeruns!

Rob Neyer

  (9:17 PM)

Without necessarily lending this notion any credence, I'm sure someone will suggest that the Rays became infatuated with home runs after hitting so many against the Red Sox.

Charlie (Seattle, WA)

Who is better at first base, Justin Morneau or Ryan Howard?

Rob Neyer

  (9:18 PM)

Defensively, you mean? Morneau is a good first baseman, Howard is one of the worst.

Jen (Philly)

Bad hop? Seriously?

Rob Neyer

  (9:20 PM)

For those of you aren't watching ... Iwamura just botched a routine grounder. On TV, Joe Buck first tried to make up an excuse about the ball hitting the lip of the infield grass. When replays showed that wasn't the case, he made up a bad hop. Why not just say the guy screwed up? It does happen, even to major leaguers.

Greg (Philly)

What are the chances this doesn't go back to tampa?

Rob Neyer

  (9:22 PM)

37 percent, maybe a bit higher.

kwame (st louis)

i think its 100% since they dont play in tampa

Rob Neyer

  (9:24 PM)

Technicality! No, of course you're right . . . For those of you who don't know, the Rays play in St. Petersburg, across the Bay from Tampa.

RJ (Philly)

Rob, did Burrell not hit that ball deep enough for Utley to run?

Rob Neyer

  (9:24 PM)

Not even close. The shortstop caught it standing still.

Mike (Madison, WI)

Unbelievable...

Rob Neyer

  (9:26 PM)

Another pop to Bartlett, and Phillies now 0-for-6 tonight w/RISP. IF the Rays come back and win the World Series, THIS will be the story of the Series.

Sean (Philly)

Feliz is up, this inning is over

Rob Neyer

  (9:27 PM)

He'll probably hit a three-run homer here, but I don't know why Manuel doesn't get Dobbs some time at third against the righties...

Tommy Rothchild (pville)

FINALLY!

Rob Neyer

  (9:27 PM)

Of course. No three-run homer, but I'm sure everyone in Philly's happy with a one-run single as Sonnanstine hangs a slider.

Sam (Long Beach)

Wow, why would they give him that pitch?

Rob Neyer

  (9:28 PM)

It was a mistake, Sam. A lot of people think major league pitchers can throw the ball wherever they like. But watch closely sometime, and notice how many times per game the catcher has to move his glove more than a foot to catch a pitch.

jim (philly)

what has made ruiz so successful in this WS considering that he struggled with the bat all year??

Rob Neyer

  (9:29 PM)

Blind luck, Jim. Nobody becomes a good hitter all of a sudden in late October.

Joe (Tibet)

Sonnanstine doesn't have good control tonight it seems. Too much time off, Rob?

Rob Neyer

  (9:30 PM)

Sure, maybe. It's true that Sonnanstine's control is usually outstanding, and he's definitely been off tonight.

Ted Williams (Boston)

You think the Sox messed up giving up a home grown talent in Carlos Pena?

Rob Neyer

  (9:34 PM)

Homegrown, Teddy? I believe the Red Sox were Pena's fifth organization.

sam (tampa)

why cant the rays get there 3 4 punch hitting

Rob Neyer

  (9:36 PM)

Sam, I'm sure there have been three- and four-game stretches during the regular season when Pena and Longoria didn't hit. But as a fan, I'm with you: Right now they just don't look like they know what they're doing. Our eyes are pretty convincing.

Greg (Stateline, NV)

Wham!

Rob Neyer

  (9:37 PM)

BOOM goes the dynamite. Crawford lines one into the first row of seats in right field. He actually got jammed a little, but obviously not enough for the Phillies.

Josh (Ashland, MA)

rob, ask "ted" where the Red Sox were going to play Pena if they held on to him. the sox were/are pretty much set at 1B and DH.

Rob Neyer

  (9:40 PM)

In fairness to "Ted", the Sox could have let Lowell go and given third base to Youk. Objectively, they'd be better now if they'd done that. But of course they couldn't have known that Pena would do what he's done, these last two seasons.

DB (NJ)

Rob - what's it like being part of biased media. You were almost as happy as Joe Buck on that homer. Hammer.

Rob Neyer

  (9:41 PM)

I will cop to wanting this game to be close, and wanting the Rays to win this game so the Series is still close. Sue me.

Nicole (FL)

rob --was that an error?

Rob Neyer

  (9:43 PM)

It's a play he could have made and maybe should have, but . . . Wow, breaking news. Scorer's calling that an error. I'm actually sort of shocked, given how reluctant scorers are to give errors.

Matt (Seattle)

you have to make that play if you want to come back in this series

Rob Neyer

  (9:46 PM)

The night is young and this game could turn on a dime. But aside from the Phillies' struggles with runners in scoring position, the Rays just aren't making the plays, and at some point you're going to hear a comparison to the Tigers in 2006. Also, Sonnanstine's control continues to be an issue. He's never walked four hitters in a game in his career, and he's got three already tonight? WTH?

Chris (Boston, MA)

Rob--Do you think the Rays have been relying on their bullpen a little too heavily so far? i.e. when they pulled "big game" james shields after 5 2/3 the other night, and the bullpen is up right now. If they do come back in this thing, I think they might be in trouble.

Rob Neyer

  (9:47 PM)

I think they took out Shields at just the right moment, and I think if you've got a deep bullpen you should use it.

Reif (Denver)

Nasty!

Rob Neyer

  (9:47 PM)

Yeah, nice strikeout for Sonnanstine, who got Utley on three pitches. He sort of needed that.

Jimbo (Fishtown)

Comparison to 2006? Come on, Philly is nowhere near as bad of an opponent as St. Louis was.

Rob Neyer

  (9:48 PM)

No question, Jimbo. But you have to admit the Rays have not been sharp so far.

Art (Boston)

How long have teams been employing the shift? I feel like it somewhat new phenomenon.

Rob Neyer

  (9:49 PM)

I believe it's more common today than it's ever been, but the first documented shift was employed in the 1920s.

John (Nebraska)

HAMMMER!!!!!!

Rob Neyer

  (9:50 PM)

Game over, sports fans. And while you can nail me for predicting the Rays would win this Series handily, I also did predict that Howard would break out of his slump at some point. Which I suppose was so obvious I shouldn't even mention it...

Ben (Tampa)

Didn't you also say that Lidge would blow a save?

Rob Neyer

  (9:51 PM)

Hey, somebody's paying attention! And yes, I said exactly that. But I promise I won't root against him, if there's a save situation down the line...

jose (NY)

but i think that the rays will push this in game 7

Rob Neyer

  (9:52 PM)

I hope so, Jose. But beating Hamels in Philadelphia is a pretty tall order. Particularly if Maddon continues to pick the wrong right fielders (at least according to my eyes).

Jared (Philly)

Now the Rays can go back to having 15,000 fans at their park, congratulations to the phillies!!

Rob Neyer

  (9:54 PM)

We'll see, Jared. I don't think we have any idea how the Rays' fans will respond if their team doesn't get back into this Series.

Devin (computer)

What happened to the rays pitching?

Rob Neyer

  (9:55 PM)

They've not been at their best and they're facing one of the better lineups in the National League. Tough combo.

Kevin (Japan)

Which team is more likely to be at this level next year?

Rob Neyer

  (9:58 PM)

At the risk of offending a fair number of fans in Philadelphia ... Gotta be the Rays, right? They won more games this year *and* they're quite a bit younger. Based on the personnel on the rosters at this moment, I would expect the Rays to win 89-93 games next year, the Phillies 84-88.

james (gainesville)

home run derby

Rob Neyer

  (9:59 PM)

Eric Hinske? I didn't know he finally got a roster spot! Anyone know who got dumped to make room for him? Fernando Perez?

Hugh (Philadelphia)

Cliff Floyd got hurt, they just replaced him with Hinske

Rob Neyer

  (10:00 PM)

Thanks, Hugh. Somehow I missed that news.

Aaron (St. Petersburg)

Should Hinske with his experience had been on the roster the whole play-offs.

Rob Neyer

  (10:01 PM)

Hinske did have a lousy second half, Aaron. And the Rays did fare pretty well without him, these last couple of games notwithstanding.

Daniel (Norfolk)

Maddon's gonna get heaved. Granted he should have been tossed in the first inning when it was warranted.

Rob Neyer

  (10:05 PM)

It probably wouldn't hurt if he did something to stir up his club. But the plate umpire's been okay tonight, near as I've been able to tell.

John Doe (Anywhere)

This is starting to get ridiculous.

Rob Neyer

  (10:07 PM)

Last pitcher to homer in the World Series: Ken Holtzman in 1974. And that's Blanton's first professional homer.

Chad (Philly)

Do you think the Phillies will close it out Tuesday?

Rob Neyer

  (10:13 PM)

Chad, that would be impossible. But they'll probably close it out tomorrow night.

mike (chester, pa)

so do you have anything positive to say about the phillies yet?

Rob Neyer

  (10:14 PM)

They're playing better than the Rays.

Ike (Boston)

Do we only see David Price tonight if Tampa takes the lead?

Rob Neyer

  (10:16 PM)

The Rays' pitching coach hinted as much, early in this game. But I think they should use him if they're within a run or two in the seventh. Which is of course unlikely. Especially if Longoria continues to swing at low pitches out of the zone.

Tim (Ohio)

Joe Blanton now has more world series home runs than Alex Rodriguez!

Rob Neyer

  (10:16 PM)

That's an awesome bit of trivia. Let's hope it holds forever!

Aaron (St. Petersburg)

What happens to Jackson next year with Price coming up for the full season?

Rob Neyer

  (10:17 PM)

They may toy with the idea of making him a closer, but if not they should trade him. Because in addition to Price, they've got another two or three outstanding prospects in the minors.

Terry (Texas)

How can he take that pitch?

Rob Neyer

  (10:17 PM)

Longo takes a fastball down the middle. What a Series he's having.

Art (Boston)

You would have to say Blanton is pitching well beyond expectation.

Rob Neyer

  (10:19 PM)

Sure, but the guy's a major leaguer and his ERA in this game is a bit north of 3. Not anything out of the ordinary, really. He's pitching well, but it's not the first in his career.

Blake S. (Indiana)

Is the substance on the bill of blanton's hat legal?

Rob Neyer

  (10:19 PM)

Looks like a little pine tar to me, but if you're Joe Maddon, why not make inquiries?

Joe (Philly)

Has any team in baseball history hit this bad with men on base and won a series?

Rob Neyer

  (10:25 PM)

Yeah. In 1914, the Boston Braves won the World Series despite going 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position *and* 3-for-92 overall. It was a bizarre Series.

Eric (Allentown, PA)

Rob - what would you offer Burrell this offseason?

Rob Neyer

  (10:25 PM)

Not a lot, Eric. Burrell's on the wrong side of 30 and he's a horrible outfielder.

TL (FL)

Too early to talk series MVP? Top 3?

Rob Neyer

  (10:27 PM)

I think Hamels is going to look pretty good if he wins tomorrow night. And we may not have seen the last of Ryan Howard.

Blake S. (Indiana)

Is it possible that the suberb performance is caused by the pine tar, causing a break on his breaking balls? He touches his hat twice each time before a pitch.

Rob Neyer

  (10:28 PM)

You got me, Blake. My guess is that he's been doing it all season; any Phillies fans know? And if he's been doing it all season they're not going to stop him now.

Mike (new brunswick, NJ)

Rob, the stuff under blantons's hat is sweat. He's had the same hat all year when coming over. Its very dirty and before every pitch he wipes the sweat off his forehead and putts it on his hat. Its a combo of sweat, dirt, and wear from rubbing over 1000 times in the same spot.

Rob Neyer

  (10:29 PM)

Thanks, Mike. Sounds reasonable to me. I have to say, though, if a pitcher was *going* to load up, wouldn't that be great camouflage?

alex (tampa,florida)

the home plate ump is ridiculously exagerrated with his strike 3 calls.

Rob Neyer

  (10:31 PM)

I like 'em. Generally I think umpires should be in the background, but I think a good strike-three call is appropriate.

chase (billings)

in 1914 THE BOSTON BRAVES Hank Gowdy hit .545 (6 of 11) with five extra-base hits and also drew five walks for Boston in the series and was the difference maker in Games 1 and 3. and 16 runs in the series in YOUR TRYING TO TELL ME THAT GOT THREE HITS? THAT MAKES IT OFFICIAL THAT YOU JUST SPOUT OFF NONSENSE, AND UNREAL FACTS. MORON

Rob Neyer

  (10:31 PM)

Made you look.

John (Greenville SC)

Is the 2-3-2 format fair to the home team?

Rob Neyer

  (10:34 PM)

I think it's worked out pretty well, over the years. Sure, 2-2-1-1-1 might be a little more fair, but it's just not worth the extra travel.

Ryan (TX)

Wouldnt it be more fair if it was 3-2-2?

Rob Neyer

  (10:35 PM)

I don't think that's fair enough to the road team. Not nearly fair enough.

J.R. (Cyberspace)

Rob - Do you pinch hit for Jackson in the 7th or leave him one more inning? If you pinch hit for him, who would you send to bat in his place?

Rob Neyer

  (10:35 PM)

Oh, you have to pinch-hit for him. Gabe Gross, probably.

Art (Philadelphia)

Joe Buck just talked about Moyer's stomach virus. On the local Philly pregame show, Moyer's son was quoted as saying "if Schilling's dirty sock is in the Hall of Fame, then so should our toilet seat".

Rob Neyer

  (10:36 PM)

Yuck.

Hank (Dallas, TX)

Wouldn't you PH for Bartlett here?

Rob Neyer

  (10:37 PM)

I would. But Maddon obviously has an unjustifiable faith in Bartlett's hitting.

Emeka (Africa)

Rob, you truly have made some terrible predictions and citations of baseball history as of late. I'm really finding it hard to forgive you man. I mean it is all Phillies this series. A terrible prediction with the Tampa Rays.

Rob Neyer

  (10:40 PM)

Fair enough. But can I get just a little bit of credit for being one of the few to pick the Phillies over the Dodgers? Can you do that for a brother?

Ricky (Cleveland)

Rob, are you still agitated that you didn't get into the BBWAA last year?

Rob Neyer

  (10:43 PM)

Ricky, I wasn't agitated about not getting in. I did not aspire to get in. I just found their post-voting justifications to be less than forthright. If you want to blackball me, fine; I probably deserve it. But at least be honest about it.

Chris (MN)

Ok, can we stop killing Rob for not getting every prediction right? I'd bet a nickel that he has a better track record than most of us.

Rob Neyer

  (10:43 PM)

Thanks, Chris. And yeah, I tend to fare pretty well, particularly when it comes to the regular-season stuff. But then, it's actually pretty easy if you rely on data rather than intuition. Seriously.

Paul (Pennsylvania)

Rob, do you do any chat monitoring other then Baseball or is your season over tomorrow??

Rob Neyer

  (10:45 PM)

Paul, I chat almost every Tuesday at noon Eastern, all the year around. I hope you join me next time!

Andy (Minneapolis)

What has been the high point of your career, Rob?

Rob Neyer

  (10:46 PM)

Interviewing Jerry Mathers during a Portland Beavers game this summer.

Vic ((philly))

Time for Madson

Rob Neyer

  (10:48 PM)

You are correct, sir. Is it presumptuous to suggest that if Upton doesn't take Madson deep, the game's essentially over? I know the Phillies' computed chance of winning will jump into the mid-90s, right? (Yes! First time I've brought up the predictor all night!)

Sean (DE)

It's already in the mid ninties there Rob...

Rob Neyer

  (10:50 PM)

Wow, 94 already. With two guys on base. We're reaching the point of diminishing returns, of course. But it'll jump past 95 for sure if Upton makes out.

Steve-o (Taipei)

And next, what is the computed chance of the Phils winning the series...

Rob Neyer

  (10:52 PM)

Well, roughly speaking . . . The Rays have to win three straight. Their chance of winning each of the next three games is something like .45*.55*.55 = 14%. Rounded, something like 1 in 8.

Matt (Seattle)

strike 3

Rob Neyer

  (10:53 PM)

Full count, Madson gets him on a change-up. Later, that might seem like the pitch that ended the Series.

Aaron (MI)

97%

Rob Neyer

  (10:54 PM)

Feels right, and doesn't even consider how good Lidge is. So we can safely bump the figure to 98, right? Which will make it all the more dramatic when the Rays do come back and win! [jk]

peter (stl)

well 1 in 8 chances isnt the worst I've heard

Rob Neyer

  (10:54 PM)

Not at all. The Royals did it in '85, and so have a few other teams. It's rare, though.

Kevin (Japan)

But 7/8 is a lot better.

Rob Neyer

  (10:55 PM)

Right. Sorry about that. Question was about the Phillies and I should have answered it that way.

Gideon (Utica NY)

Royals were helped by Denkinger in game 6

Rob Neyer

  (10:56 PM)

True. The Rays may come back, but they'll probably need some help from somebody.

Shane (Philly)

I have to say, being a Philly fan, this is one of the most amazing feelings ever. I'm 20 years old, been around long enough to know only playoff futility, but this must have been what it felt like when the Red Sox finally won back in '04. This is awesome

Rob Neyer

  (10:57 PM)

It's easy to forget -- for those of us who remember 1980, I mean -- that thousands and thousands of Phillies fans have never seen their team win a World Series. For you, it's all new.

Mick (Boston)

Hey, I'm coming in late, I heard there was a really controversial call to start the game, what happened?

Rob Neyer

  (11:02 PM)

On a fielder's choice, Longoria tagged Rollins on the butt, but the umpire -- who was literally three feet away -- missed it. Resulted in a run for the Phillies.

Johnny

My comment is based on the fact that you people are not allowing everyone to comment. Seems ROB wants to talk about only what he wants

Rob Neyer

  (11:03 PM)

Right. I'm the moderator. It may be dirty, disgusting work, Johnny. But somebody has to do it. Otherwise, chaos.

Patrick (Washington, DC)

rob what's the best world series that you've seen?

Rob Neyer

  (11:04 PM)

I don't know if I knew it at the time, Patrick, but the 1991 Series featured four fantastically dramatic games. The '85 Series was great, but I had a rooting interest in that one.

al (nj)

best world series ever is the 1960 series

Rob Neyer

  (11:05 PM)

As you might know, I have rated 1960's Game 7 as the best Game 7. But the best Series, overall? I believe three of the games weren't competitive.

Eric (Philly)

5 outs away

Rob Neyer

  (11:07 PM)

And Pena strikes out yet again. Longoria next?

John (Philly)

good call ROB!

Rob Neyer

  (11:10 PM)

Stat of the Series: Pena and Longoria 0-for-29 with 15 strikeouts. You want to talk about predicting the outcome of one series between two good teams? Try predicting that one team's two best players would be utterly shut down...

Josh (Rochester, NY)

I know its early but could you make a case for Madson as MVP of the series? Also, has a middle reliever ever won a significant reward like that?

Rob Neyer

  (11:12 PM)

I'd be surprised if one has, and I'll be surprised if one does.

andrew (snj)

how bout predicitng where these phillies runs are coming from

Rob Neyer

  (11:13 PM)

You mean Carlos Ruiz and Joe Blanton? No, I actually had both of them doing really well. Promise.

Billy (MT)

ROB, wondering if you can see any type of a positive future for the Twins the next few years?

Rob Neyer

  (11:15 PM)

Sure. They've got a fine young rotation, just a cut below the Rays'. They've got two outstanding hitters in Mauer and Morneau. They do need to come up with another really good hitter, or they'll be stuck in the range of 85-90 wins.

Eric (Ithaca, NY)

Here's a tough you'll like to ponder Rob. If the Rays beat Hamels in game 5 and then head back to Tampa needing to defeat Myers and Moyer, doesn't that totally change the outlook of the series?

Rob Neyer

  (11:17 PM)

Sure. If the Rays win tomorrow night they become something like 1-in-3 to sweep Games 6 and 7. But that seems like a long ways off right now.

Mike (FL)

Do you really think one good player could boost the Twins into a contender???

Rob Neyer

  (11:18 PM)

They're already contenders, Mike; remember this season? But they have so many weak hitters in the lineup, adding one *good* hitter makes them three or four games better.

Dan (NoVA)

I've been watching that Rollins double on DVR... the ball looks like it hit the guy on the left in the chest and it kept it in play. Too late now, but that was potentially reviewable, correct? I think that was out.

Rob Neyer

  (11:19 PM)

It was potentially reviewable, but it looked to me like it did hit the metal fencing, clear as day. Anyway, it's irrelevant now...

John (New Braintree, MA)

Game over.

Rob Neyer

  (11:20 PM)

Well, the game was already over. But the Phillies' might as well step on the Rays' throat while they've got them on the ground.

alek newell (las vegas)

wouldnt hamels pitch a game in tampa instead of moyer or myers?

Rob Neyer

  (11:21 PM)

Alek, Hamels isn't coming back after only two days rest. Win or lose, tomorrow night's the last we'll see of him.

James (Tampa)

Why did they get a philly fan to moderate this thread???

Rob Neyer

  (11:22 PM)

Sorry about that, James. We'll do better tomorrow night. Promise.

finch (norristown)

still pitch lidge

Rob Neyer

  (11:23 PM)

I don't think you pitch Lidge to protect the lead. But you can pitch him to keep him sharp, if you think he needs it.

Patrick (Philly (at heart))

hamels will have three days off if he pitches tomorrow. He will be there for game 7

Rob Neyer

  (11:25 PM)

Not without a rain-out in St. Petersburg, Patrick. Which strikes me as unlikely. There will be two days between Game 5 and Game 7.

Ray (Philly)

Now they are just rubbing it in!

Rob Neyer

  (11:26 PM)

Let's now remember all the talk about Ryan Howard not having what it takes to thrive in October...

Aaron (Omaha)

no travel day?

Rob Neyer

  (11:29 PM)

Okay, I'm getting a lot of questions about this, so let me be clear . . . Monday: Hamels in Game 5. Tuesday: Off. Wednesday: Game 6. Thursday: Game 7. Days of Rest for Hamels before Game 7: 2. Cool?

Mike (WISCO)

my roomate bet me $100 that I wouldnt get any of my questions answered on here. HELP ME OUT PLEASE!! How do the Brewers look like they will be next year? Chances on resigning CC??

Rob Neyer

  (11:30 PM)

Brewers won't sign Sabathia and they'll probably need a year to consolidate their gains before competing for another playoff spot in 2010. And you owe me fifty bucks.

Wade (Minneapolis)

Would you consider benching Pena against the lefty Hamels tomorrow?

Rob Neyer

  (11:31 PM)

Would I consider it? Sure. Would I do it? Probably not, considering the options. Willy Aybar? Nah.

Greg (DC)

Why do pitchers with strong change-ups have reverse splits?

Rob Neyer

  (11:32 PM)

We're not completely sure that reverse splits are not simply statistical anomalies. But the reasoning is that the change-up behaves like a screwball, sort of a reverse curveball.

Joe (NJ)

Should Happ be a starter next year?

Rob Neyer

  (11:33 PM)

Absolutely. He should replace Moyer or Blanton in the rotation.

aladdin (stamford,ct)

why would he replace moyer...he won 16 games...i know hes not great but hes a solid 3-4

Rob Neyer

  (11:36 PM)

I know, Al. And I'm assuming he'll be back next year. But one of these years he's not going to get anybody out, at all. And it might be next year.

dan (ca)

So 1% chance that the Rays win this thing according to the board.

Rob Neyer

  (11:37 PM)

It's lower than that. I'm guessing the thing can't go to 100. I'll bet it's really something like 99.7 percent.

Rob Neyer

  (11:37 PM)

I'm sorry, I mean 99.9%

Matt (Philadelphia, PA)

tradesports.com's prediction market gives the Phillies an 85% chance to win the series--right in line with your 1/8 prediction.

Rob Neyer

  (11:38 PM)

Yeah. The math's not hard.

Mike (Philly)

100% Rob

Rob Neyer

  (11:41 PM)

Indeed. Must be a good feeling right now, to be a Phillies fan. Meanwhile, Joe Maddon now has to do his best managing of the year, and convince his hitters that they're actually a lot better than they've looked this week. Which they are, of course.

Sam (Seattle)

Neither team has been playing to potential. It's clear though that Phils are the superior bunch

Rob Neyer

  (11:44 PM)

Well, just for the sake of argument, Sam . . . Do you think it's now obvious that the Cardinals were the superior bunch in 2006? It's perfectly acceptable to celebrate a team's performance without drawing sweeping conclusions. Let's see what happens tomorrow night and perhaps later this week, and let's see what happens next year. Everything counts.

Dan (Hoboken, NJ)

Why does Maddon like Zobrist so much? Wouldn't they be better-suited to deal with Floyd or Aybar's defensive defficiencies to get one of their bats in the lineup against RHP??

Rob Neyer

  (11:50 PM)

Even smart guys like Maddon are prone to being unduly influenced by what they've most recently seen. And Zobrist finished the season with a power burst. Thanks for all the questions, and I hope to see you tomorrow night at 8:20 Eastern. Until then, remember: "If you can't say something bad about a relationship, you shouldn't say anything at all."