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Keith Law

  (1:01 PM)

I have just one comment on Tuesday's election: You can be the President; I'd rather be the Pope.

John (Arizona)

Does the rumored Cano/Hughes for Webb package make sense for the DBacks?

Keith Law

  (1:01 PM)

Wait, what?

Jason (NJ)

Thoughts on the Jacobs for Nunez trade?

Keith Law

  (1:03 PM)

I am officially off the Dayton Moore train. Mike Jacobs stinks. A .299 OBP from an everyday corner infielder? They gave up a decent relief arm AND they're going to pay Jacobs arb salaries when Kile Ka'aihue (of whom I am no huge fan) is sitting right there and could provide equal or better production for free. To say nothing of Shealy or the out-of-favor Billy Butler. It's just a bad move for KC, and hey, a free reliever for Florida.

David (Vegas)

Ken Macha to be announced as the Brewers' new manager....is he better than Brenly for pulling this young team to the next level? Why was he fired in Oakland after 4 pretty good seasons?

Keith Law

  (1:04 PM)

"Better than Brenly" is about as low a standard as you could come up with. That's like requiring a managerial candidate to be able to convert oxygen into carbon dioxide.

jamie (miami)

keith i knew jake was going to be gone and ma fine with it. however i dont understand how all we get for a first baseman who hit 32 hr last year is one reliever i mean is this kid good or what?

Keith Law

  (1:05 PM)

Jacobs isn't good. And most teams in baseball realize it. Yes, the HR are nice, but the low OBPs sink his value. Plus I don't think he's anything special at 1b.

Jon V. (Cleveland, OH)

Is Wes Hodges a "below average 3B" or a "no way he can play third base in the Majors for a good team" 3B?

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

He's well below average. I think as more teams lock in on defense - look at the two teams in the WS, both good defensive clubs - guys like Hodges will increasingly end up shifted to other positions.

Garrett (CT)

Too early to worry about Hughes?

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

Yes.

Charles (San Jose)

Keith, in a league with 30 teams, can a fanbase really be long-suffering if they go 28 years between titles?

Keith Law

  (1:08 PM)

No. Cleveland fans are long-suffering. So are Cub fans. Maybe Pirate fans just because the suffering has been so deep.

Clay (Normal, IL)

Klaw, The NL and AL have split the World Series so far this decade with each league winning 4. It's widely accepted that the AL is the superior league. So how do we quantify that? Is it based on the individual players? The season records? Interleague play? Or should it be based on winning the most important thing in baseball, the World Series?

Keith Law

  (1:08 PM)

Interleague play is your best metric. The World Series isn't a good one. For one thing, it's a pair of teams rather than whole leagues. For another, even with the big mismatch between leagues, wouldn't we expect the inferior league to win roughly 3 out of every 8 series anyway?

Jacob (IA)

Didn't realize there was such disdain for Brenly. Two questions, feel the same about his commentating and is he the worst manager with a ring?

Keith Law

  (1:09 PM)

Can't say I've listened to him on air. He is the worst manager I can think of with a ring. Cleveland fans who remember Manuel's tenure there just threw up in their mouths.

SF Giants Fans

eh hem.

Keith Law

  (1:10 PM)

And Houston and San Diego ... Giants fans at least had a great run with the Bonds teams. No rings, but a lot of very good baseball.

Jon V. (Cleveland, OH)

Any chance Carlos Santana could be in the big leagues by the second half of 2009?

Keith Law

  (1:10 PM)

Yes.

Mark (Ann Arbor, MI)

Was this the worst umpiring in World Series history? Apparently you can bunt with your foot directly behind home plate now? Jeff Kellogg missing that call on Victorino was brutal and I can't believe Maddon didn't complain more that he did.

Keith Law

  (1:11 PM)

Horrendous. This is the sad thing - even as a hardcore baseball fan, the things I'll remember most about this series will be: 1. The awful umpiring. 2. The weather. 3. Joe Maddon channeling Bob Brenly. 4. Utley's defense. 5. The awful umpiring.

Steve (LA)

I have been reading the Dodgers may be interested in Jon garland...woul they be better off saving $12-15M per year and just give James McDonald the ball every 5th day?

Keith Law

  (1:11 PM)

Hell yes.

matt (cleveland)

Hi Keith,Do you suppose that 105mph or so is the maximum speed that a human will be able to throw a fastball?We see so many advances in nutrition and training (265lb linebackers covering 40 yards in 4 seconds etc...) I just wonder if 15 or 20 years from now the standard for a "power pitcher" will be to have a fastball upwards of 100mph.Will we ever see 110? 115?...in your opinion?

Keith Law

  (1:12 PM)

I believe the physical max for a human being is around 103-104. It's not strength or conditioning - it has to do with the structure of the shoulder.

mark (Richmond, VA)

Keith, just how ridiculous was it for Maddon not to pinch hit for Howell last night? Inexcusable.

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

That was the worst in a long series of mind-blowingly stupid moves. Honestly, I might fire the manager after that display. If you don't understand the most basic aspects of in-game management, you can't manage my baseball team. Sorry.

Matt (Boston)

The percentage of "questions" today where Philly fans are ripping you for clearly making your WS prediction based on personal hatred for the city is...

Keith Law

  (1:14 PM)

Zero. They're all in jail today.

Jonny (St. Pete, FL)

What did you see in Longoria's swing that turned him into an MVP type hitter in the ALCS to Mr. Irrelevant in the WS?

Keith Law

  (1:14 PM)

He just couldn't lay off the breaking ball low and away. That's not the entire explanation, but that's something I noticed. It's not his swing - swings don't usually change over the course of a few days - but his approach.

James (North East, MD)

I always thought Steve Dalkowski threw harder than 105mph?

Keith Law

  (1:15 PM)

Unproven and probably urban legend.

Keith Law

  (1:16 PM)

Excellent, I've ticked off the Phillie fans ... my day is complete.

Jon (Bay Area, California)

Does anyone else besides Chase Utley make that play up the middle last night?

Keith Law

  (1:17 PM)

Among second basemen? I don't think so. I was hoping he'd have a bigger series at the plate, but for people who were paying close attention, he showed some amazing defense in the five games.

James (Providence, RI)

CoCo and Bowden for Peavy? Should get it done, right?

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

Um ... no.

Brad (NY)

You can be the side effect

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

I'm glad there's at least one Prince fan here.

Rich ( Parker CO )

Keith, so sorry for calling you Buster last week. Your chats are the best by far! Do you think the Giants would accept a package of Hughes, Kennedy, Montero and Jackson for Lincecum?

Keith Law

  (1:19 PM)

No, I don't. That's a lot of unproven value and risk for one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL, and a guy who looks like he might be able to handle very high workloads.

Tim (Durham, CT)

Who is better defensively, Utley or Pedroia

Keith Law

  (1:20 PM)

Utley is the best in baseball right now, and it's not particularly close.

Ron (chicago)

Is John Tolisano still considered a prospect? He had a disappointing season in Lansing.

Keith Law

  (1:20 PM)

He's young, but that's about it. Lacks a position and HAS to hit to become a prospect.

Harry (Pasadena)

Keith, statistical question for you. My brother-in-law complains that stolen bases aren't fairly included in numbers like OPS. How fair is it to include a stolen base as an extra total base-- and subtract caught stealing as one less base in OBP-- in crunching hitting numbers? Is there a better stat that includes baserunning?

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

The problem with that is that the value of a stolen base is not the same as the value of an extra base on a hit. That is, (single + SB) < (double), because the double has more power to advance runners already on base. (Yes, I understand that SLG overvalues extra-base hits too.)

Joe (Miami, FL)

Orlando Hudson isn't better than Utley? I trust your eye on this one, but is it possible that Utley's defense gets a little extra credit because of how good his bat is (since he could get away with Uggla-level defense)?

Keith Law

  (1:24 PM)

Hudson has really slipped to the point where he's maybe an average 2b. Utley's range beats everyone's.

Greg (Oaktown, Cali)

While it was obviously unintentional, the 3-inning format of last night's game made for intense, entertaining viewing. Can you imagine any scenarios in which a league could adopt this format (to settle tiebreakers at the end of a season, etc.)? Also, when learning a new language, what program do you use as a complement to Pimsleur to learn reading/writing?

Keith Law

  (1:26 PM)

That's an interesting one - a 3-inning game to settle a tiebreaker? I'm not sure that I like it but I give you credit for coming up with something I haven't heard before. As for the languages, I just put a long post up on the dish about this - short version is that I work through a newspaper article in my target language, adding new words to flash cards as I find them.

Tim (cincinnati)

What about Brandon Phillips glove??? He is pretty good.

Keith Law

  (1:26 PM)

He's gotten quite a bit better, but he's not as good as Utley defensively.

Jonathan (Tampa, FL)

Would you be in favor of shortening the season to 148 games so that the playoffs could be finished by mid-October? I don't like the idea but Gammons made some good arguments for it.

Keith Law

  (1:28 PM)

No, I hate that idea. Colin Cowherd's been pushing something similar, eliminating half of the off days and putting in some doubleheaders, that I hate too. The weather isn't an issue every October, but the media tend to react to What Just Happened instead of What Usually Happens. Now, all that said, World Series ending Nov 5th strikes me as giving Mother Nature the finger and daring her to rain on your triflin'...

chris (madison)

If the Brewers moved Weeks to CF, do you think his athleticism can make him average defensively?

Keith Law

  (1:29 PM)

Yes. And I would like to see if the move to an easier position will help him improve at the plate.

Jon (Bay Area, California)

Howell pitching to Burrell, Romero pitching to Upton...were Maddon and Manuel BOTH trying to lose last night?

Keith Law

  (1:30 PM)

Manuel had a pretty good series. I'll give him one slip-up. BJ bailed him out anyway, hacking at the first pitch after Romero showed he was wild with Crawford.

Todd(Paris, TX)

Any chance the MLPA and owners get together and shorten the season? I say knock off about a month. Sometimes less is more.

Keith Law

  (1:30 PM)

Less is less, as in money. Not going to happen.

Tommy (Chicago)

Did Lidge just wrap up one of the best years ever for a closer, even though it was mostly over-shadowed by K-rod?

Keith Law

  (1:31 PM)

Only if we measure by saves/save %.

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

You painting yourself blue and being a Smurf tomorrow?

Keith Law

  (1:31 PM)

I wanted to get a Cookie Monster costume but couldn't find one.

Jon (Strasburg PA)

Keith,No question. Just a thanks for the great website, chats, writing, etc.

Keith Law

  (1:32 PM)

Jon in Strasburg: Not a Phillies fan. (Thanks.)

Joe (Los Angeles)

I don't mean to Klaw-bait here, I think this is a legitimate question. With the Phillies winning, and with home-grown players having a large role, does this provide any kind of justification for Ed Wade? I know he's made some strange moves over the years in both Philly and Houston, but didn't he have a large role in building this championship team?

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

I think it's more of a feather in the caps of Mike Arbuckle and Marti Wolever, as well as their staffs. They drafted a number of the players you saw on the field for the Phils, and provided the players traded for Blanton (who turned out to be pretty key) and Lidge (what a heist that turned out to be). Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Myers, Madson, Burrell - all drafted by the Phils. That's pretty damn good.

Jack (DC)

Don't they have to shorten one week, I mean a Cubs RedSox series would have been 20 degrees this week.

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

And a Dodgers-Rays series wouldn't have generated a single story about the weather.

Bobby (Detroit)

You should be Alexei Ramirez for Halloween

Keith Law

  (1:35 PM)

Too easy. Walk around in a black shirt, swinging a baseball bat around but never hitting anything.

John (Detroit)

Maybe it's just me, but I thought at the time that Maddon playing the infield in with Jenkins on 3rd, 1 out, and Werth up in the 6th was a slight mistake due to Balfour's ability to induce pop-ups (like he did to TWO batters in the 5th on Monday). Iwamura probably makes an easy catch on that pop-up and holds the runner in that case. Thoughts?

Keith Law

  (1:36 PM)

I don't mind bringing the infield in a step in that situation, but all the way in was excessive.

Glen (NYC)

what was Maddon thinking? Not PHing for Howell (to keep him in to face one RIGHTY)?? You gave up an out to lose the platoon advantage? and when will managers stop bringing the infield in during the 6th/7th innings??

Keith Law

  (1:37 PM)

Not to harp, but Maddon's mismanagement of a very deep bullpen that gave him tons of tactical options is the EPIC FAIL of the year. Manuel had fewer options and did more with them.

Jeff (NY)

Luis Castillo for Fukodome. Which team says no?

Keith Law

  (1:37 PM)

Cubs.

Adam (Columbus, OH)

I think when they talk about the suffering Philly fans, they are grouping all sports together. I remember hearing that Philly had, by far, the longest championship drought of a city with all 4 major sports franchises.

Keith Law

  (1:38 PM)

There is one major sport. The others are just games.

John (atl)

Given that the should is the limiting variable in throwing speed, any chance at a surgeon coming up with a procedure to enhance the should for this specific reason?

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

I for one salute our new cyborg-pitcher overlords.

Kevin (Dallas)

How often are we going to get a Keith Law chat during the offseason?

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

Weekly or close to it. I'm taking a redeye home Wednesday night from the GM meetings so I can do my Thursday chat. I might be caffeinated to the gills, but I'll be here.

Drew (FL)

KLAW, what the heck do you do this offseason if you're the cubs? You look like one of the best teams in baseball over 161 games and then completely implode in the playoffs? The former suggests not many changes are needed, while the latter suggests something different needs to be tried. Your thoughts?

Keith Law

  (1:40 PM)

You've got a rotation issue with the possible loss of Dempster. Centerfield is a question again, although I'd still like to see Pie get a shot. Fukudome is sort of an albatross unless he's willing to start pulling the ball. They're not young on offense, either - only Soto is young among their contributors - so you have to go all-in for '09.

James (Chicago)

Can you give a quick assessment of Junichi Tazawa? I assume you've never seen him but have you heard any reports?

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

Seen some video clips and talked to folks ... he's pretty promising, sounds like a first-round talent. Sits low-90s with good offspeed stuff - saw a very good splitter on a video clip that the NPB Tracker blog found.

Nick (Boston)

Was the Rays' destroying Jon Lester and being baffled by Jamie Moyer a product of luck? How on earth did that happen?

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

Their approach to Moyer was awful. He needs two things to succeed against a good lineup: A wide outside corner (check) and jumpy/impatient hitters (check). When I saw that outside "strike" getting called in the first, I knew the Rays were in trouble.

JR (Vegas)

Klaw, taking into account all of your job obligations, where does chatting rank? What is your least favorite thing about your job?

Keith Law

  (1:43 PM)

I enjoy the chats tremendously. Worst part is the travel. It's unavoidable, but that doesn't make it fun, especially now that my daughter is old enough to notice that I'm not around.

Howie (Seattle)

Keith, any thoughts on Mariners' prospect Greg Halman? Thanks.

Keith Law

  (1:44 PM)

Big upside, potential 4-5 hitter with huge power, does not like the breaking ball. He seems to understand he needs to be more patient, but I think the problem is deeper - it's recognizing offspeed stuff earlier and adjusting to it. But he can hit the fastball from here to Amsterdam.

Glen (NYC)

With Pinella saying Fukudome will move to CF to platoon with reed johnson, would you put together a package of Pie, Vitters, +1 to try to snag Peavy?

Keith Law

  (1:45 PM)

I don't know that the Cubs have a +1 to make it work. I do like Vitters a ton, and I think Pie's the sort of out-of-favor guy that the Padres like to get when they can. But Tyler Colvin ain't getting this done.

Victor (NYC)

Klaw, really enjoy and appreciate your chats, blogs too. From your scout's point of view, how would you grade David Price's stuff on a 20/80 scale? Could he be the best pitcher in baseball in 3 years?

Keith Law

  (1:47 PM)

As a starter, he's probably a (future) 60 overall grade, maybe 65 on the high end. I think "best pitcher in baseball" in 2011 is probably too aggressive. Top 10? Yes, very possible.

Gregory (KC)

Keith, why do you dislike the trade so much for Jacobs? We already have two set-up men in Mahay and Ramirez. We also don't have any pop in our lineup, don't you think that Guillen will get some better pitches due to the protection from Jacobs behind him rather than Gordon? Kila is still a year away and I hear Butler will probably get traded.

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Because Jacobs is horrible. He's a bad offensive player. I don't believe in lineup protection anyway, but even if I did, his presence in the lineup is not going to scare me into pitching to Guillen. I'm thinking, "Hey, automatic out on deck, good times!"

Jeff (Brooklyn, OH)

Who has better pure stuff: Joba or Price?

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Joba.

Nick (Boston)

I can't speak to his performance during the rest of his career, but for these playoffs, Kerwin Danley has to be the worst of the bunch, no?

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

The worst in this year's WS, yes. There are others, though, who are worse. There's just a complete lack of accountability - blown calls are just swept under the rug, and we see the same umps out there every year making the same mistakes and (coughJoeWestcough) baiting players and managers.

Jeff (Farmington, MI)

Love the chats. I have two questions for you. First, what is the projected ceiling for Rick Porecello? Does he rate out as true #1? Second, how could you so badly underestimate "The Watchmen"? It's a great story.

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

Porcello's a potential #1, but has a ways to go to get there, so the range of his possible outcomes is still pretty wide. I found Watchmen's story to be superficial and the ending to be absurd.

Tek (Boston)

Do my game calling skills get me a top 10 spot on your top 50 free agents list?

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

$5.

Drew (FL)

KLAW, getting back to the Cubs and Dempster. If you're Jim Hendry wouldn't you sign another SP like Lowe or even go after CC and pass on Dempster and take the extra comp draft pick you'd get in the swapping of someone else signing Demp? Just seems to me like Dempster and long-term deal have tragedy written all over it

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

Flip side is that Dempster is the devil you know, especially the medicals. Perhaps that means you walk away from Dempster, but if you sign Lowe, for example, you're going to mostly be in the dark on his medical history.

Ross (CA)

When you discussed the value of Peavy it got me wondering whether or not you believe that Greinke and Cain would be worth similar packages to what Haren and Bedard netted? They seem like more valuable pieces due to their ages, payroll control, and potential no?

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

And their lack of recent arm trouble. Cain's contract is outstanding, so he's got the most value to me. Greinke has only two years left of control, I believe, so he's got the least.

JR (Vegas)

Klaw, Whats the projected ceiling on NYM prospect Brad Holt. Is he a starter or reliever?

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

Until he develops an average second pitch I project him as a reliever.

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

OK, sorry, sleeping toddler was not sleeping...

JR (Vegas)

Keith, Stay with me here, If Team A signs a Type A free agent and loses its 1st round pick, then Team B signs away a Team A Type A free agent, thus giving Team A Team B's pick, and then Team A signs another Type A free agent, does Team C obtain the 1st round pick Team A obtained from Team B, or can you only lose your pick?

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

You can only lose your original picks. You don't lose a compensatory pick, whether it's one you got from another team or a supplemental pick between rounds.

Jason (Bmore)

Scouts and "experts" continually rate Andrew McCutcheon very high, however, with McLouth having an above average year and a few outfielders that were acquired during the deadline, when is this guy going to get to play in the bigs?

Keith Law

  (2:01 PM)

Mid-2009? Move McLouth to a corner and play McCutchen in center with McWhatshisface is right. McMoss is better suited to part-time duty anyway and McTabata's at least two years off.

Kyle (Portland, Oregon)

Keith: What would you do in left field if you're the Phillies? Offer Burrell, 3 for 30 million, assume he walks. Whom do you go after? Jermaine Dye a good FA alternative?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

I think Burrell's age and declining defense are red flags. I like him for a year, like him for 3 years if I'm an AL club and can DH him at some point, but I don't think an NL club should be looking at him long-term. Dye is signed through 2009 with an option for 2010.

Nick (Boston)

Re: your comments last week about Masterson: is it that would you like to see him become an extended long reliever, or that's where he is best suited? Would the Red Sox be wrong to make him a starter?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

He's nowhere near as effective as a starter, not least because lefties get him pretty good.

JP (NYC)

If Brett Gardner plays a full season and hits 250 wouldn't it be possible for him to steal 60 bases?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

Sure. Your point?

Mike (NC)

What did you think of this WS in terms of quality of play, drama etc? Personally I think there were 4.5 boring games and the Series itself would have been forgettable if not for the rain suspending Game 5.

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

For a series with four very close games (three one-run games), it wasn't very dramatic.

chris (madison)

Come on Keith, you're telling me that *walking* anywhere dressed as Alexei Ramirez wouldn't be funny enough? You'd have the bring the bat with?

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

Good point.

Kevin (Dallas)

Point: Speed doesn't slump!

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

A full season of Brett Gardner's bat would be a 600-PA slump.

Justin (Baltimore) Orioles fans

Did you really just say Padres and SF are long suffering? Step into my world please.....

Keith Law

  (2:07 PM)

This is a bit silly, but the Padres came into existence in 1969, when the O's were starting a 15-year run with two World Series wins, three more pennants, and two division titles. That's more titles, pennants, and playoff appearances in those 15 years than the Padres have in their 40-year history.

Victor (NYC)

You wrote in a recent blog that Danks added a plus pitch (cutter). Can you quantify for us non-baseball folk how difficult it is to try and develop an above avg pitch to your arsenal? Reason I ask if bc Hughes has been working on adding a cutter too in AFL, although he hasn't been successful there.

Keith Law

  (2:08 PM)

Lot of guys add cutters but few have them become the weapon that Danks' is. One thing I don't get is why more teams don't try to teach the splitter. Well, I do sort of get it, in that a lot of baseball people feel it increases injury risk, but I don't think the evidence supports that.

Dave (NYC)

Best Halloween Costume Ever!!! When Letterman asked Josh Beckett (Marlins0 what he was going to be for Halloween and he said "I'm going to walk around in a stupid turtleneck with no trophy and be George Steinbrenner" Amazing.

Keith Law

  (2:08 PM)

Even I think that's arrogant. And I like it.

Erich (CT)

Prediction...the Jays sign nobody this off-season of value, and finish, once again mind you, in 4th place next season. Honestly, they are stuck in two places right now. They won't get better because they are the Blue Jays and they won't rebuild because JP's a stubborn GM. So if you're the Jays GM/Owner/whatever, what do you do with this team during the winter meetings and so forth?

Keith Law

  (2:10 PM)

You're essentially built to win now, with a potential trough coming because the farm system is thin (better, but thin). If punting 2009 to restock is off the table, then hold Snider, Cecil, and Arencibia, because they all might help you in 2009, but look at moving some of the other kids for rotation help and/or a bigger bat.

Donny (Jackson)

Commissioner for a Day! What is your one absolute must-change for the game?

Keith Law

  (2:11 PM)

Once the pitcher has begun his delivery, the umpire may not call time. I swear, I can't believe we haven't seen a bunch of injuries from this ... and I think all the time-calling has gotten out of control. Grow a pair and get back in the box.

Kevin (St. Paul, MN)

Doesn't it seem horribly reactionary to modify the baseball season based on some bad weather? There are other Octobers in Philly where it's 60 and beautiful.

Keith Law

  (2:12 PM)

They're saying 60 here tomorrow in Boston. Today is cold but sunny with blue skies. It's just recentism.

Jon (DC)

Cookie Monster costume (it sucks, but that is after a 5 sec google search: (link removed)

Keith Law

  (2:12 PM)

Yes, what I did find looked nothing like Cookie Monster. There were some great ones for kids, but the point was to wear it and do the voice all day.

Patrick (Chicago)

Keith, what kind of return could Kansas City expect to get for Billy Butler?

Keith Law

  (2:13 PM)

The more they acquire replacements/obstacles, the less they're going to get. If they could trade him for a couple of good-not-great prospects, that is probably their best option (well, short of just PLAYING THE GUY). Toronto would be a great fit.

Ben (Montreal)

Shoul I have high hopes for Josh Beckett next year, or have we seen the peak year(s)?

Keith Law

  (2:15 PM)

He was great this year until he hurt his oblique muscle. I wouldn't worry.

Kevin (New Brunswick, NJ)

In re: Billy Butley, does Tampa Bay make sense? They could use a full-time DH, and they have plenty of pitching to trade.

Keith Law

  (2:15 PM)

Unless there was some thought of putting Baldelli there, yes, that would fit.

Alex (philadelphia)

Would you start Marson over Ruiz next year or does he need more time in the minors

Keith Law

  (2:16 PM)

Definitely wouldn't start Marson in the majors. Until he starts to hit some line drives, I'm not looking at Marson as a star prospect, just a decent one.

Robert (Houston)

Re: your potty video post. Don't you find Elmo to be the worst character ever? Sesame Street jumped the shark when he became the focus.

Keith Law

  (2:17 PM)

I'm not an Elmo fan at all and I hate that they devote about 1/3 of every episode to that trippy Elmo's World nonsense. The new Sesame Streets are tough to watch between that, the bad hip-hoppy theme song, and Journey to Ernie.

Joe (MD)

Keith, as a big Phils fan (I always said I wanted a W.S. championship more than any other sports championship), let me say I find your analysis very insightful and provacative. Now, I know the Phils pitching (re: Blanton, Moyer, and 'pen) was great in the playoffs, but can they do that over a 162 game season? Do you like their pitching staff going into next year more than this year?

Keith Law

  (2:19 PM)

Figure Hamels has a chance to improve, Blanton probably regresses, Moyer - well, he might retire, but I'm thinking the sub-4 ERA was a fluke, and Myers who the hell knows. They could just use Happ as the 5, but Eaton should never throw another pitch for them and Kendrick is a 6 or a long man, so there's some reason to think they should get another starter. Certainly if they sign one of the top-flight FA guys and he doesn't pull a Jason Schmidt on them, they'd be favorites to repeat as pennant winners or close to it.

Ted (Philly)

Should the Phillies look to trade Ryan Howard this offseason?

Keith Law

  (2:20 PM)

Won't happen. I think it's a good idea, given all his trouble vs LHP (seriously, if they'd lost the series, would he have woken up with night sweats all winter, crying, "No! No! Not the slider!"), but I can't see them trading an iconic player like him right after winning the whole shebang.

George (Long Island)

As a long suffering Yankee fan (kidding), please tell me they have better options than re-signing Giambi. It was worth not making the playoffs just to get rid of him.

Keith Law

  (2:21 PM)

I have to think they're the most likely landing spot for Teixeira. He's an ideal fit. Giambi has value, but they need a first baseman, not a DH who fakes it at first.

Matt (NY)

Love the work, K-Law. If the Yanks land Tex, do you think they can afford to play Gardner in CF because of the production from Tex? They are losing a lot of offense between Abreu and Giambi this year.

Keith Law

  (2:23 PM)

I've never subscribed to that theory (we're getting so much production from X that we can take the hit with Y). Maybe with a good defensive shortstop, but that's it. The Yanks are, as you said, losing a lot of offense with those two departures, and Jeter, A-Rod, Matsui, Damon, and Posada are all on the wrong side of 30.

Derek (WI)

Is Yovani Gallardo a #1 for you or a good #2? And if its the latter, what do you do (trade/FA) to get that #1?

Keith Law

  (2:24 PM)

Good #2. Don't see him as the 200+ IP dominator that a true #1 is. I give Melvin credit for being creative to try to keep Sabathia.

Rangers Fans

Come on, the Rangers have won one playoff game in their history, how can we not be at the top of the list?

Keith Law

  (2:24 PM)

Because there are, like, five of you.

Andy (MA)

What's your take on the Delmon-Garza trade at this point? Should the Twins trade Delmon this offseason?

Keith Law

  (2:25 PM)

Would be selling a bit low on Delmon, but they have to flip some of that outfield surplus for infield help. The trade looks very lopsided in Tampa's favor right now, and that's even with Morlan zeroing out.

Joe (MD)

Keith, can you be the arbitrator for Howard's upcoming arbitration hearing? I mean, all I need to show you are the world series clips (3) where he strikes out with a man on 3rd and 1 out, and you'd give me a favorable ruling, right?

Keith Law

  (2:26 PM)

I feel myself dazzled by all those RBI...

Kevin (Evanston, IL)

Keith, you said earlier teams can't lose picks they get for losing a FA if they sign more than one Type A FA. What about the Gerrit Cole pick? Is that safe too?

Keith Law

  (2:27 PM)

Right, the compensatory pick the Yanks get for not signing Cole is safe. If the Yankees sign three Type-A free agents, they'll lose their regular first-round pick, their regular second-round pick, and their regular third-round pick, but not any picks they get for losing free agents or the pick for Cole.

Drew (Mpls)

With Escobar in the pipeline for Milwaukee is JJ Hardy available? What would it take? Perkins and ? or Blackburn and ??

Keith Law

  (2:28 PM)

Perkins has next to no trade value right now. Blackburn doesn't have that much either. I think Hardy's available, but those pitchers aren't the centerpieces of any deals (unless the ? is, say, Joe Mauer).

Erich (CT)

Why won't Texas get their heads out of their you know what's and sign a damn starting pitcher for once? It's got to be incredibly frusterating to see the team continue to NOT do what it takes to win.

Keith Law

  (2:29 PM)

Because they have a ton of young pitching in their system now. They've signed lots of starting pitchers - Millwood, Padilla, Park. How did those guys work out?

Steve (Long Island, NY)

Do you see Baker and Slowey as good examples as to why people should give Ian Kennedy a chance or are there differences?

Keith Law

  (2:29 PM)

Slowey in particular, yes. Slowey has a little more fastball, but the approaches are similar.

Bo (Honlulu, HI)

I know I'm a little late in the debate, but does my boy Mark Ellis touch Utley defensively?

Keith Law

  (2:30 PM)

He would be my choice for second-best 2b glove. And maybe Aaron Hill third, if he's healthy.

Russell (McKinney, TX)

Keith, If you were Jon Daniels who would you target to trade our catching surplus with? What kind of player could the Rangers get?

Keith Law

  (2:31 PM)

Just get the best player/package you can. Pitching is always great, but they do have a lot of it on the way.

Randy (Sarasota, FL)

Keith, would you have countered Jenkins by bringing out Price last night?

Keith Law

  (2:32 PM)

I didn't mind the matchup for Tampa. Balfour just threw one pitch right down the chute. Jenkins wasn't hitting him unless he did that.

Charlie (Bethesda, MD)

Can you please tell all the Nats fans that no free agent signing is worth losing the #1 pick for this team? Also, could you please tell the Nats to sign Strasburg?

Keith Law

  (2:33 PM)

You can't lose the #1 overall pick. The top 15 picks in the draft are "protected" from loss as free agent compensation.

Gerry, Seattle, WA

Hey Keith,I'd think that you wouldn't be much of a Pie fan, due to his pretty suspect plate discipline. Do you see much promise in him, from a scout's view?

Keith Law

  (2:34 PM)

I do - power, speed, quick bat, not a hacker, should be a + centerfielder.

Jim (NJ)

Keith, If your moving Jeter off short (and I wish you could,)where do you put him? OF? IB?

Keith Law

  (2:35 PM)

Bat won't play in a corner. Maybe CF, but how long could he stay there?

rob (philly)

You said Hamels may improve. I'm terrified of the effect that all the innings he threw this year will have on his arm. Is that not a concern for you?

Keith Law

  (2:36 PM)

Sure it is. I think he was 50+ innings over his previous seasonal high. But I'm not good enough to say that he will get hurt, only that his risk is higher than it would have been had the Phillies missed the playoffs.

Gus - NY

I understand being sick of Elmo, bu Journey to Ernie? come on, anything that gives us more Ernie is great. "we found him, we found him,la la la la la,our journey, to Earnie, is done! "

Keith Law

  (2:37 PM)

It's just weird and kind of silly. Although the "Journey to Bert" version was funny - Big Bird asks the two-headed monster if they've seen Bert, and in the middle of their rambling answer you can hear one say "unibrow."

Brian Sabean (SF)

Should I trade Cain for prospects, a bat or hold on to him?

Keith Law

  (2:40 PM)

Hold on to him. I have been as hard on Sabean as anyone, but in that division, with that pitching, they're not THAT far off from contention. They really need to upgrade their defense, but if they do that and add one big bat, they'll be respectable - Lincecum, Cain, an improved Sanchez, Zito as the 4 or 5. They should flip All-Star Brian Wilson to a team that wants to sign a closer as a FA and misses out on K-Rod and Fuentes.

Ryan, DC

If they could trade picks, what kind of haul would the Nats be able to get for the #1 this year and Strasburg? You know they don't wanna spend the money, so what could they get in return in your draft-pick-trading world? Sorry if this was sent multiple times, but ,y browser seems to be acting funny.

Keith Law

  (2:41 PM)

I only saw this question once. Depends on how far down they trade, but I bet they could get someone else's first-rounder plus one good prospect and maybe a throw-in guy. That assumes that Strasburg has a good spring - you don't trade this pick till the week of the draft unless someone bowls you over. (And yes, if I could rule by fiat over MLB, I'd allow trading of picks.)

Mike (NYC)

Was J.C. Romero still the worst signing of the offseason?

Keith Law

  (2:43 PM)

Pretty sure I said Aaron Rowand was the worst signing of the offseason, although with the year of hindsight it's clear that Andruw Jones was the worst.

Anthony (Chicago)

Wht should the Giants flip Wilson to a team that loses out on both of the aforementioned players. In doing so, the Giants would then need to add a closer to the things you said they needed to upgrade (Defense and a bat)

Keith Law

  (2:43 PM)

He's not a very good closer. And you need a closer a lot less than you need defense up the middle or bats who get on base and have some power.

Nick (Los Angeles)

I've heard the Dodgers have considered offering the Brewers James Loney and Clayton Kershaw for Prince Fielder. Is there any truth to that? Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me.

Keith Law

  (2:44 PM)

First I've heard of it and I bet it's bogus.

Graham

What reasoning does MLB have for not allowing trading of picks? It works for the other big sports.

Keith Law

  (2:45 PM)

It's based on a fear (from the 1980s) that small-market teams would just trade their picks rather than pay the big bonuses. Even if true, nothing stops them from trading well and getting full value (or even more) in prospects. And I don't think that's true - the Royals and Pirates both spent heavily in this year's draft. But this would entail a change to the CBA which must be collectively bargained with the union, which means the owners have to give something up in exchange.

Frank

Has anyone ever fallen further faster (excluding career ending injury) than Andruw Jones?

Keith Law

  (2:46 PM)

Gregg Jefferies? Peaked at 25 with a great year, part-time caliber by 30, done at 32.

Matt (DC)

Keith, I read the other day that the Pirates may let Pedro Alvarez battle for a starting job in spring training next year. This seems slightly ridiculous to me, but could this actually happen?

Keith Law

  (2:47 PM)

I'm sure he'll be in big-league camp, but I doubt they'd give him a job straight out of school.

Victor (NYC)

Keith, what and how much weight goes into your grading of a pitcher's pitches among stuff, command, and velocity (and whatever else there might be)? For instance, you graded a few chats ago Joba's fastball/slider as 70/70, assuming he's not drinking and driving.

Keith Law

  (2:48 PM)

I'm not sure I follow your question, but this is a good time for me to mention that baseball still has a DUI problem it needs to address.

Pete (Philly)

Carlos Carrasco in the mix for the Phils rotation next year?

Keith Law

  (2:48 PM)

Little too soon.

Cosmo (Bristol, CT)

Keith, not one Matt Holliday question? Wow. Does he get traded and what would it take to get it done?

Keith Law

  (2:49 PM)

First one I've seen. I know he's available but the price is not clear now and I expect it's high. These trade talks will all go on in California next week at the GM meetings.

Manny (Gardnerville, NV)

Does Pablo Sandoval lock into a position, or become an every day utility guy?

Keith Law

  (2:49 PM)

I'm assuming he could handle first base. He's not a utility guy - that's someone who can actually play multiple positions, and we don't know if Sandoval can play anywhere but first.

Rob (Alaska)

Not familiar with Hawaii Winter Ball...Buster Posey going crazy...does it mean anything?

Keith Law

  (2:50 PM)

No, not a high level of competition. Better than going to Hawai'i and playing badly.

Garrett (Ca)

WIth the Braves not wanting to give up Hanson for Peavy, in order to get a trade done it seems they would have to part with Schafer or Gorkys Hernandez. Who do you like better now? i know you had Schafer rated higher last year.

Keith Law

  (2:50 PM)

I still like Schafer better, but I'd give him up in a deal for Peavy or someone like Peavy. Heyward is the bat you keep.

JR (Vegas)

Klaw, this chat has an odd twist today, no? Generally, most chats have fans whining about their respective team/players not getting enough respect. Today, fans are whining about their team not being recognized as being horrible for the longest number of years. Seems like I'd rather be whining about the former, not the latter.

Keith Law

  (2:51 PM)

Indeed, but I'm disappointed to report that the Philly fans didn't bring the funny today at all. You missed your shot!

Keith Law

  (2:52 PM)

Thanks for all the questions - I'll be back next week.