Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football.
Joe (Boston, MA)
Did you look into Jake Long's metric's this year? You mentioned you would last week. If so, what did you find. Also, if you have the POA numbers for Porter and Matt Roth (other OLB for Miami) I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
I sure did. I wrote about some of them on my NY Times Fifth Down blog post but here are some others. Miami runners have gained 243 yards on 45 carries his way, which is just over 5 YPC. He also has a block win percentage in the mid 90s, which is fantastic. I'll look at some of the Fins defensive numbers later this week, so ask me about that in next week's chat.
Phillies win, I won to get to 4-4 and 6th place, and Lane is in last place...life is good. Breaston or Antonio Bryant this week?
Broad Street Brian (Philly, Broad &Tasker)
Phillies win the World Series, Lane's gonna get stomped by the Phightin? Franklins this week, and now a question. Does TN throw the ball well enough to win it all? Seems like everything needs to go right in order for them to win.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Wow, Lane takes a beating by two Philly posters! Must be the World Series firing them up. I'd go with Breaston over Bryant and you are right that Tennessee has yet to face a team that could get them out of their gameplan. Indy did it for a while but couldn't keep it going.
Hey KC - Do you like Schaub to continue his hot streak against Minn or Garrard v Cincy? It's not really that important a game, since I'm playing this terrible guy that started Cobbs last week...
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Go with Schaub all the way. The Texans offense is looking like a carbon copy of the elite Shanahan/Kubiak Broncos offenses of the past.
Big Jake(Baton Rouge)
Better play Chris Johnson or Brandon Jacobs?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
If you have both of those guys on your roster, that is quite a luxury. I'd go Johnson by a nose but I do expect Jacobs to put up some very good numbers against Dallas.
KC, It was looking scary right up until the end but the the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS, pulled through! Favre is a disaster right now. However, on to this week. Which two are winners this week from Chi vs Det, TB @ KC, Jax @ Cinci or Tenn vs GB?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Favre is fast moving his way up the bad decision list. I don't care if he says he's not a gambler, the tape says he is. I'd go with Chicago and Cincinnati as far as the list goes.
Did you just use "Texans" and "elite" in the same sentence?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
I know, crazy isn't it?! As nutty as it sounds, I stand by it. Unless I'm completely off base, that offense has turned the corner.
Broad Street Brian (Center of the Baseball world)
I agree with your point that head coaches last about 10 years with each team. That said, IF Andy Reid were to step down, do you think the Eagles would bring Coach Spags home from the Giants? or would he step on Jimmy Johnsons toes?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Center of the baseball world, eh? That begs the question of what part of the baseball world Philly filled when the Phillies were at the bottom of the league. As far as Spag coming to the Eagles, it would seem like a great hire but let's not sell out Reid just yet. Coaches often get their first title win in years 11-14, so Reid has some time yet.
Ryan (San Diego)
How well is Rivers playing in your opinion? Elite level?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
I can't knock the guy too much but I do wonder where his intangibles are now. I say that because when he plays so-so and the Chargers win, everyone says it was his leadership that got it done. Now that he is playing great and they are losing, what does that say about his leadership/intangibles?
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
Last week you mentioned that Jerod Mayo's metrics were terrible. The other day I saw Chris Mortensen tout Mayo as a possible Defensive Rookie of the Year. What about Mayo's performance is lacking and why do you think folks such as Mort see it differently? Thanks, as always.
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Josh, I did an analysis on Mayo for an article I did for WEEI.com a couple of weeks ago that looked at his POA numbers. Teams were getting 10 yards per attempt on runs at his POA and he was being blocked at the 2nd level a ton. He's just not stuffing the run anywhere near as well as the Pats need him to.
Broad Street Brian (philly)
Allow Phila to crow a bit, it was a long walk in the wilderness.
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Brian, my eldest son was wearing the #14 Phillies pajamas from my youth last night, so I'm with you!
Ben (Tempe, AZ)
Do I really bench Rodgers this week for Orton??
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
I would. Detroit is abysmal in every way and Tennessee is dominant.
Did you mean Jacksonville instead of Cincinnati? Or are you actually predicting Cinci to get off the schnide this week? Can Jacksonville be trusted after falling to the Browns at home last week?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Yes I meant Jacksonville over Cincy. That's what I get for trying to hurry these answers!
Ryan (San Diego)
I think that leadership question is better served for the defense of the Chargers. Rivers is leading the 2nd best scoring offense with an all pro rb giving him basically no help. I would think if you put up 30 points a game, you should have more than 3 wins right?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
True, but all I'm saying is that everyone used to talk about Rivers being able to find a way to win even when they had an elite RB and a great defense.
Cosmo (Anytown, USA)
Nice - did your son complete the persona by betting on the Phils last night? Is it possible that the Eagles get the ship righted and there is another Philly parade in February?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
I'm glad someone noticed the Pete Rose reference! And, no, he didn't make any bets that I know of (although I better check my phone records just to make sure!). I think the Eagles will make a run towards the playoffs but I find a Super Bowl berth hard to predict.
Vic (Kailua, HI)
Is it just me, or is OAK the best defense in the AFC West? I can't believe I just said that.
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
I know, it sounds as crazy as those earlier posts but once again it is true. The Raiders have the physical talent all over their team, all they need is someone to lead them in the right direction. Maybe they can trade for Rivers.
House of Pain (StL)
Fantasy question from a guy in one of your leagues...I trade Barber/Coles for Chris Johnson/Fitzgerald, you like or not? I'm concerned about Barber's playoff matchups.
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
I'd make that trade. The big concern is Johnson splitting carries with White but I like Tennessee's schedule more than Dallas.
Why has the Denver offense comeback to earth? Is Cutler overrated in your opinion?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Cutler is near the bottom of the league in bad decision percentage, so he hasn't worked out that weakness of his game. I also think Eddie Royal may be hitting the rookie wall. Stokely's injury doesn't help and neither does Scheffler's. It's really a combination of things, in other words.
Vic (Kailua, HI)
TE has been one of the most inconsistent positins this year. With Witten's injury, who are the top TE's? Gates has looked better and Dallas Clark has been getting targets. Any others?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Vic, there really aren't any top TEs this year. I did a study last night and found that there have been only 28 instances of a TE posting 10 or more points this year. Gates and Clark have both been good but Anthony Fasano, a TE who splits time, is doing about as well as those two.
KC, Where's the love for that Canadian guy who's 7 and 1, I remember my stones getting busted about what my knowledge of American might actually be during the draft.
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Travis, I'm pro-Canada all the way so you'll never hear any bashing on that front from me. Having said that, the football gods may punish you for bragging too early. They did it to NE last year so be careful this weekend!
KC, I just traded Michael Turner for Reggie Wayne! I really needed a WR! Will I regret this deal though?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
If ever there was a time to get Wayne for a relatively low price, this is it. The Colts do have Houston, SD and Detroit as three opponents between now and week 15 so you'll get at least those games as the old dominant Wayne.
Hi KC, What do you think of Curtis going forward? I think you liked him in pre-draft ratings. Which one sits in a 1 ppr league Graham, Chris J. or Forte? I get Wayne for Addai a good trade? Thank you
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
I like Curtis a lot and had him listed as one of my waiver wire pickups in this week's Insider Pass Plays article (he's one of five guys I think are great pickups for the rest of the year). I'd probably sit Graham out of that group and would trade Wayne for Addai if those other three are your RBs.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
What do your numbers tell you about Chris Berman's ability to conduct interviews with McCain and Obama without looking like (more of) a buffoon? I'm guessing buffoonery is likely.
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Josh, you are talking to a big Chris Berman fan so I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with you. I think Boomer will have fun with the interviews and will make them more non-partisan than any other interviewer could.
Ron Winters (Chat Ref)
I've called more penalties than any ref in the league and here's another one: That's a personal foul against Travis from Canada, excessive celebration, 15 yards and repeat 2nd down.
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Maybe this will save Travis from the football gods wrath!
MRL the Pearl (Owings Mills)
I'm sure the metrics are only so-so on these two rookies, but what are you thoughts regarding Joe Flacco and Ray Rice. I see them being used in a fashion comparable to McNabb-Westbrook. Thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
I've been on Flacco's case a bit lately because of his high bad decision percentages but I can see why the Ravens are behind the guy. He's doing a number of things right and once he corrects the bad decision making, he should be a really solid QB. I still have to see more of Rice before I can sign off on him, however.
KC, even if I lose the rest of my games, I will still finish ahead of some of the players in the league.
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Travis taunts the gods once more. Don't say I didn't warn you!
WOW, Mikey will regret that deal. C'mon Mikey. The Burner has to be somewhere in the top 3 running backs. Now to my question. KC, who do you like this week between Browns and Ravens? Gotta like the Browns for the following reasons; first this is the first time the Browns have all their offensive weapons (other than Jurevicious) this year. Second, the Ravens have a good Defense but the BRowns are very underrated. Hey everyone, the Browns are 6th in Points allowed!! How many saw that coming?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
Mike, I've got the Browns D as a sleeper this week in my Getting Defensive article, so I'm with you on this one. I have a feeling they'll make Flacco force a few passes.
am i crazy for wanting to start steve smith (nyg) rather than ryan grant in my flex spot for a PPR league?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
I'd do that only if you are facing a weak opponent. I hate the thought of sitting a starting RB for a #3 WR even under those circumstances.
Which Pre Game NFL show do you like the best? (NFL Fox) w/Menefee,Long,Bradshaw,JJ, (NFL today) w/JB,Boomer,Marino,Sharpe,Coach Cowher. (NFL countdown)w/Berman,TJ,Carter,Key,Ditka. Or (NFL gameday) w/Faulk,Sapp,Deion,Eisen(I believe)?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
I like different parts of each. I love the ESPN play breakdown section. I also get a kick out of Frank Caliendo on Fox.
Justin (Tucumcari, NM)
do you think the Packers have a good chance to come out on top of the Titans, or do you think having the vets back on defense will hurt them in this game, as far as their defensive rhythm goes?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
I'm of the same mindset on this game as I was on the GB/Dallas game earlier this year when Dallas was healthy. I think the Pack don't match up well against Tennessee and aren't as talented across the board. Rodgers also hasn't proven he can handle dominant defenses. I'll take the Titans in this one.
How bad has Jason Peters metrics been this season? I think he believes he is playing well? From what i have heard?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
I've only had a chance to break down a couple of Peters run blocking game and he's done fine in that department. Where he is hurting is pass blocking. He even got beat to the inside for a sack recently. A guy his size should never have that happen but he was so worried about getting beaten to the corner that he gave up a big crease to the inside.
Big fan of your metrics, but I think you need to be a little more subjective. Case in point, Fred Bennett. Objectively your metrics said he was the 2nd best CB last year. Yet, I doubt you would have found a single scout to say he was even a top 50 talent. His play this year confirms it, he can't even beat out Reeves for the nickel. You books would be alot better if you supplemented facts with opinion.
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Tom, I'm often fond of saying I have a metric eye and a scouting eye. The metric eye is the numbers and the scouting eye is the subjective side. In Bennett's case from 2007, both of those eyes agreed about his performance. His 2008 performance has gotten better of late (he was awful early on) and it would still not surprise me in the least to see him make a year three turnaround back to dominance. A lot of CBs have done that in the past (Terence Newman comes to mind) so let's not throw in the towel on Bennett just yet.
MVP-Clinton Portis! Off POTY-Kurt Warner! Def POTY-Albert Haynesworth! Coach of the year-Jeff Fisher! Agree or disagree?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Portis, Haynesworth and Fisher I'll take. Give me Brees over Warner and it would be 4 for 4.
Do you see one specific thing that's lead to Carlos Rogers being a lock down type guy this year? You must admit, he was pretty terrible the previous years.
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
I did a study on Rogers in one of my Scientific Football books that indicated he did a great job on vertical routes but did a terrible on shorter routes. He seemed to be worried about getting beaten deep and that kept him from coming up to stop the short routes. That doesn't seem to be the case this year, so I'm thinking the new coaches told him not to worry about the over the top material quite as much and to play the entire field.
I agree with Tom, I like you metrics and respect how much time you put into them, but come on, some of your findings suggest terrible players are good. So many aspects go into every play, that a simple metric rarely tells the tale. Offer more opinion.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
You know what's funny about this? Whenever I do an article that has a lot of opinion, I get emails telling me to lean on the numbers more. When I do a numbers based article, I get posts like this. That's one of the reasons I write the Scientific Football books. I get 120,000 words that I can use in either or both directions!
How bad was Terrence McGees performance vs Miami last Sunday? He looked like former Bill Chris Watson?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
If memory serves me right, he allowed 12 completions in 13 attempts for something like 140 yards. McGee was hurt, so that was the likely culprit for why he did so badly, but he can't stay out there if he's going to give up that kind of production to a mediocre Dolphins receiving corps.
There are 50 other guys that do chats based on their opinions. I like coming to this one and seeing some evidence.
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
That's part of why I lean on the numbers. Believe me when I say that I don't let the numbers run everything I say, though. And I should also point out that I try every year to alter the metric system to measure things that aren't currently being measured.
Should the Bills re-sign Jabari Greer to a new deal? Is he worth it?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
Ask me after this week's matchup against Randy Moss. Greer did the best job he could against Moss in 2007 and still got toasted. If he slows down Moss (not shuts him down, just slows him down) then he's worth a full starter's re-sign salary.
How do you see Antoine Winfield doing vs Andre Johnson this weekend?
SprungOnSports (Long Island)
Antoine Winfield against Andre Johnson is an amazing matchup, based on youe metrics who do you think wins out?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
That has to be the elite matchup of the week. Winfield is the best CB in the NFL right now and Johnson is the best WR at the moment. I think it will be something like Roddy White v Asante Samuel last week in that Samuel stopped most of the throws to White but White still hit two passes for TDs.
Forget to mention that you jinxed me in the Chat League. After we tied 2 weeks ago, I lost by half a point last week. Happy Halloween. I am going as the Mad Scientist
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
I try to help the economy by getting people to buy labcoats!
Vic (Kailua, HI)
Steve and Tom: The metrics are a great tool for evaluating performance froma specific perspective. Like the DVOA, its more specfic to situations. I use the metrics as a part of the overall evaluations. Matchups, injuries, and overall production should be accounted for, as well as the metrics, if you want to make your best educated guess.
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
It's like Bill James always says - the more information, the merrier. It's not that the metrics or DVOA or any stat should be considered the be all, end all of analysis. They are all tools used to find out more about player/team/platoon performance.
KC, When you going to do some metric columns? I would love to see a Overated/Underated, Biggest surprises/busts etc.... I need it!
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
I've been really busy with fantasy analysis this year but have plans to do a metric article next week, so look for it around Wednesday.
Joe Staley averages nearly a sack a game, but I'm continually hearing how great he is. Isn't the truth that he's an athletic guy with potential, but he sucks now.
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
I might not go far as to use that word but Staley hasn't done anything to show that he was worth the high draft slot.
Is it crazy to think of starting Fargas over Portis this week?
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
Yes it is. NY ran on the Steelers last week and Washington will do the same this week. Keep Portis in the lineup!
KC, Thoughts on Ronnie Brown the rest of the way in FF?
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
His O line is blocking great so he'll keep producing quality numbers. And he'll get more credit than he should, as anyone could run with the kind of blocking he's been getting this year. Well, I've got to get started on this week's start/sit picks so I'm gonna jet. Hope to see you all next week!