Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football.
Hey KC, thanks for the great chats in the past. Start three: J. Lewis, Grant, Jones-Drew, Torain, Turner. Also, what are the bad decision metrics on Matt Ryan?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
I'd definitely start MJD and Lewis given their favorable matchups. Of the other three, I'd probably lean on Turner.
Which Manning brother has a better weekend.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Eli all the way. The Pittsburgh defense is frighteningly (sic?) good right now and Indy hasn't handled good defenses that well this year.
Vedhas (Spartanburg, SC)
Andy Reid insists that Max Jean-Gilles is doing a great job in the place of Shawn Andrews, but I feel that Andy couldn't be more wrong. What do your metrics and scout's eye tell you about MJG?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I've taken a look at about four of the Eagles games this year and would say that Jean-Gilles is doing about as well as Andrews. I wouldn't go so far as to say he's doing better but even if there is a drop-off, it isn't significant.
KC, With their soft schedule, can our Fins possibly win the division?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Wow, can you believe you just said that? The Bills are fast dropping off because of injuries to their secondary. If NE isn't the real deal with Cassel, it's possible Miami could pull this off. I'd still say it's a 2 in 10 chance at best.
Advice for a pick on a "suicide" pool: Miami over Seattle or San Diego over KC? I know that Carolina over Oakland is a more slam dunk choice, but I'm trying to save them for next weekend. Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Go with the Fins. Their POA block win numbers have been good all year on defense, their CBs are playing better, it's in Miami and they are playing a team with a backup QB and two backup WRs. Can't ask for much more as far as favorable factors go.
Tejas (Spartanburg, SC)
KC, I'm hurting for a QB this week. Jeff Garcia is on bye and my backup is injured. These are the top FA QB's left: Joe Flacco, Gus Frerotte, Jamarcus Russel, Kerry Collins, and Tyler Thigpen. Who should I get?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
I'd probably go Flacco this week. I don't like any of the other QBs matchups and even though Thigpen is playing well, he's facing a new defensive coordinator in SD and that might not go well for him.
KC, I get Lane this week and have to start Quinn since Schaub and Leinart are my only QB's. How's Quinn going to handle the pressure?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
I think Cleveland made the move to Quinn in large part because they liked the matchup. The offense has the weapons and I think Quinn has a very good first game.
TMR said he'd NEVER sit Slaton, even against Raven's D. Given what the Ravens have done to their opposing RB's, wouldn't MJD or T.Jones be a better choice?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
I respect TMR greatly but if I had a choice of starting MJD against the Lions over Slaton vs. the Ravens, I'd go MJD. Slaton's a great back and the Texans O has been playing great but this is the Lions D we are talking about.
What kind of geeky "metrics" does it take to somehow call a stud like Jerod Mayo "overrated"? Have you watched him play at all this year by any chance?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
I can't stand it when someone asks me that question. What part of "I break down every play of every game when putting together the metrics" don't these people understand? Yes, I've broken down six of the Patriots games (just as the article said) and yes he is overrated. He gets blocked at the 2nd level way too often and isn't a great plugger LB right now. He's learning and he'll probably get there but he isn't there today.
andrew, long island, ny
hey kc, how would you rate jake longs performance so far? you think hes lived up to expectations?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
I did a post on this for the NY Times Fifth Down blog and found that after a poor start, Long has turned things around big time. At last check he had a POA win percentage of 96%, which is simply superb.
I'm getting screwed, aren't I? I'd be playing if Braylon could catch. Now Brady gets to play against a crappy Broncos D, he'll look good and I'll be stuck on the pine.
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
I think playing Quinn against Denver so that he would look good was definitely part of the plan.
This Week, Matt Ryan vs. Saints, or Philip Rivers vs. KC?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
As much as I like Ryan, Rivers vs. that KC defense is a matchup that has to be played.
Greg - tampa
Who do you like in the Nmadi vs Steve Smith match up?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
I'll say this, I expect Nnamdi to be thrown at more than he has all this year. He's a great CB and all but he hasn't been tested at all because everyone went after Hall. Carolina will go to Muhsin a few times but they aren't going to let Smith get taken out of their gameplan because Nnamdi is on him. I predict a solid game for Smith, maybe 70-100 yards or so.
Brady Quinn (Cleveland)
Are you starting me, Flacco, Rosenfels or Thigpen today and for the rest of the year?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
In a fantasy league I'm starting Rosenfels. He's proven to be nearly as (if not just as) effective as Schaub in that offense.
Will J (Portland, OR)
Who do you think is calling the shot on the Quinn decision, the front office? Why don't they just fire Crennel?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
I haven't gotten the sense that the front office has tried to run roughshod over Crennel the past few years and I don't think that's changed. Crennel knows Anderson didn't turn the corner and surely realized a change had to be made.
Jack (Richmond Hill)
Hey KC, Which 2 of these 4 has the best day running the ball; Addai(@Pitt), Grant (@Min), Charles (@SD) and Rice(@Hou)? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
I'd definitely go Rice vs. Houston. I'd also avoid Addai and Grant if possible but Charles vs. SD isn't exactly a great matchup. GB can exploit the Vikes secondary weaknesses so I'd aim for Grant and hope for some goal line carries.
Matt Ryan for President
How in the world can you explain Matt Ryan? Talk about a meteoric rise!
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
You know, he was pretty good in college too! Seriously, though, Ryan has shown tremendous progress this year. I thought he'd turn into the next Matt Hasselbeck but I didn't think it would happen in one year.
The Bucs haven't been running the ball as effectively in the past couple games. Do you think this is more the offensive line or the running back injuries?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
I'd lean more towards injuries. Belichick likes to say that RB is the only position where a player has to be healthy to succeed and the Bucs RBs aren't that healthy right now.
Respect your opinion. Are you saying Browns over Broncs tonight and NY over Phili?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
I am saying Browns over Broncos but I'm in a toss up spot as far as NY over Philly.
Peyton or Rodgers this week? Point per completion, minus .5 per incompletion.
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Rodgers. I don't trust the Indy O line against Pitt.
Has Clady been the best rookie OT?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
I probably wouldn't put him in front of Long (see the aforementioned post) but he'd be a strong second.
Matt Ryan for President
Call me crazy but I'm not exactly jumping up and down for joy after you just used Matt Hasselbeck as a reference to my franchise QB!
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
Are you kidding me? Hasselbeck is a Super Bowl caliber QB. The reason I make the comparison is that Hass is a dink and dunk gunslinger and that's what Ryan was in college. It's not a pejorative comparison by any stretch, believe me.
Trade Hightower for Aaron Rodgers? Got LT and Barber at RB and my other QBs are Eli and Favre.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
I'd much rather have extra depth at RB than at QB, so I'd definitely make that trade. Hightower is the real deal.
Whats up with my boy Elvis Dumervil? Do you think he will rebound from a poor first half of season?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
From what I've seen, Dumervil's issue might be that he is being used more often as an all the time DE. His best role is as a Fred Dean like situational pass rusher and instead he's being worn down on 1st and 2nd down.
Words and phrases are pejorative if they imply disapproval or contempt. When used as an adjective, pejorative is synonymous with derogatory, derisive, dyslogistic, and contemptuous. When used as a noun, pejorative means "a belittling or disparaging word or expression".
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Thank you Mr. Webster!
KC, What did you think about the Raiders releasing CB DeAngelo Hall? Good move or bad?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
John Clayton said in his blog that it was a salary cap move, so from that standpoint it was a good transaction. From an on the field standpoint, Hall had an 8.6 YPA and a 36% success rate. Those numbers are OK if you are ballhawking but Hall hasn't been doing that.
Larry Hughes (Chicago)
What is that Stallworth guy on the Browns made of, glass? Is he ever going to play???
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Larry, ask the Saints and Patriots fans that question. They'll tell you the answer in no uncertain terms!
KC, I was just thinking about how many Raiders fans attacked you for not ranking Asomugha/Hall among the best corner tandems before the season. You must have had a little smirk when you saw the news he was cut...
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Nah, I didn't smirk. OK, maybe a little bit.
How have the Bills CB Jabari Greer's metrics been this season? He looks better than Terrece McGee this season and last?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Greer has a 5.6 YPA so he's playing just as well as he and McGee did last year. McGee is now in the 8 YPA range but that's as much due to the injury as anything. When he was healthy early in the year, he was plugging along between 5-6 YPA.
Will J (Portland, OR)
I was the USA today this morning, it's simply amazing for a team such as Oakland to have the highest payroll in the league be that dreadful.
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Al says you have to pay the players and he certainly does that. It isn't money or poor scouting that is costing that team, though. They just need some locker room and on the field leadership. They had that in Gruden and if they get that again, they'll be playoff contenders in no time.
Steve (Harrisburg, Pa)
KC, you have been very critical of Ike Taylor in the past. He seems to have picked up his play this year, do you attribute that to the Steelers good pass rush or his cover ability?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Some of it is the pass rush but Taylor has also stepped up his play. He's at a 7.7 YPA, which doesn't sound that good, but we're talking about someone who is usually in the 9-10 YPA range.
Other then Bailey and Nasti, is there another CB better than Revis?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
I wasn't completely sold on Revis in 2007. He was good but he hadn't taken the step up to great like it was said he had. He took that step this year and is one of the shutdown CBs in the NFL. His YPA is in the 4-5 range, which is simply fantastic.
Michael Turner (Dirty Bird Central)
Does LT miss me? Am I really this good? How long before people realize I'm a tough little fella with no intention of being tackled.
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
LT's issue is more injury related than anything but you certainly are that good! On a related note, let's give big kudos to Mike Smith and Thomas Dimitroff. They turned what looked to be a terrible roster around into a solid team in a hurry. Give them another year or two and this could be an NFC title contender.
Jason (Glendale, AZ)
Do I sense a little "east-coast bias" in the questions you pick or we out west just shootin out boring stuff?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
I promise there isn't a bias on my part! I just go with the best questions, like the one I'm going to take next.
KC, I realize B Marshall's metrics are down but you can't tell me that they're 5 better receivers in the game than him?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
One western question, coming up! Five receivers better than Marshall. Let's see - Calvin Johnson, Lee Evans, Greg Jennings, Roddy White and Andre Johnson. How's that for five better WRs?
With all the talk about CBs going on, could you tell me what Charles Woodson's YPA is? I thoroughly enjoyed his domination of Reggie Wayne. It was beautiful!
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
You know what's funny about Woodson? He's been this dominant for the past three years and yet no one seems to notice (if the Pro Bowl balloting is any indicator). Some GB fan needs to start a "Woodson for Pro Bowl" website. Heck, I'd give them updated metrics every week to back his case!
You forgot Steve Smith...
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
#6 in the WRs better than Brandon Marshall list.
Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson...I could go on...
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
And add three more possibilities.
re: Stallworth. you can ask eagles fans that question, too.
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Ah, yes, I forgot about that one-year failed experiment!
Sorry top 5 WRs dont get shut down by Jason Allen and Andre Goodman.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
John, I'm with you on the Goodman comment, but Jason Allen has played great this year. Having said that, Marshall did beat him on a 70+ yard TD pass that was called back due to phantom offensive pass interference call.
So, what is Mrs Scientist cooking today? I am always envious when you end the chat by talking about what's for dinner and I'm still stuck at work!
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
Tacos are on the menu this evening, followed by a slew of game breakdowns.
You could make the argument for Moss... or other Moss
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
True on both fronts.
Mike (San Francisco)
Corey Webster is having quite a year after playing so well in the playoffs last year. What are your numbers on him?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Webster is plugging along at somewhere between 5-6 YPA (don't have the list right in front of me). He's been superb and given the problems Aaron Ross has had (11.1 YPA), the odds are teams stop going after Webster and start going after Ross all the time.
Roddy White and Lee Evans no chance, he had one bad game. Funny how Bill Cowher had him as the #3 best WR in the game behind Johnson and Fitz, pretty sure he knows more than all of us.
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Let me take one more angle on this. Brandon Marshall has the talent to run with the other big dogs I mentioned, but he hasn't done it this year. Take out his big first game and he's had an OK year but nothing special.
Tim (San Diego)
KC, how does Vincent Jackson rank? Is he approaching elite status?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
I wouldn't quite put him in the elite category just yet but he is fast on his way there. He's beating pretty much anyone other teams throw at him and doing it on a week to week basis. Heck, I'd take Jackson over Marshall if I had to make a pick right now.
Luis (SB, CA)
KC, I called Cincinatti winning last week against Jacksonville. I'm calling Detroit winning at home versus the Jacksonville. A) Am I crazy? B) If not, then how sad a day would that by for Jacksonville?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Luis, if the Lions had Orlovsky, I'd say maybe but it's really hard to say they could beat a solid Jags team with a 3rd string QB.
Shawn (Dallas, TX)
TO or Roy Williams ahead of Marshall??
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I intentionally didn't mention Owens because he's having an off-year but the case could be made that he's better than Marshall. I wouldn't put Williams there simply because of his current situation. Give him a year to gel with that offense and he could get back to elite status.
I can't accept that Marshall isn't as good as I think he is...please help me feel better about myself and explain to me how I am delusional in thinkin Evans and White are not as good. I think I need to lay off the booz.
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
White is that good, he just plays in a run heavy offense. Same goes for Evans.
I can get AP for Hightower straight up? Should I do it?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
As much as I like Hightower, getting him for AP is an easy call. Make the trade (assuming you are on the side of the trade that gets AP).
Hector (Key West)
Hey KC, has Phillip Rivers lowered his bad decision percentage so far this season?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
He sure has. It's been moving between 2-3% this season, which is an acceptable rate for a pseudo-gunslinger like Rivers.
Is D'Hall worthy of a pickup by any team?
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
Absolutely. It's all going to come down to price and finding a team that wants a ballhawk and believes that Hall can get back to being that.
Craig (Norwich, CT)
Will the Bengals' Andrew Whitworth and the Jaguar (John Henderson) who had a scuffle get fined and/or suspended?
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
From what I saw, Henderson put his thumb in Whitworth's eye and that's what caused the fight. Now I don't know if anything happened before that to cause Henderson to retaliate but if not, Whitworth shouldn't be suspended.
EXPLAIN "Ballhawk", please.
KC Joyner (5:03 PM)
What I mean by ballhawk is a CB who goes for a lot of ints. They all want ints but some go for picks more than others.
Anton, North Carolina
Given his range, would Hall be a better FS, or can he hit enough?
KC Joyner (5:05 PM)
That's a good question. Some teams don't aim for hitter free safeties and prefer ballhawks back there. If Hall could find a team like that, he could make the Antrel Rolle-like transition to being a playmaking FS. Well, dinner is just about here so I'm going to sit down and eat. I hope to see you all next week!