Chat with Brad Edwards
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If OU beats Tech and OSU, will the computers give OU a big enough gap to overcome Texas?
Brad Edwards (12:04 PM)
Because Texas played Missouri in conference, and OU played both Cincinnati and TCU out of conference, I think the schedule strength will end up being fairly similar, which would make the computer rankings pretty much a wash. The key will be the polls. My gut feeling is that the voters will realize Tech is out of the running and reward Texas for its head-to-head win over OU. But I can also see a lot of voters ignorning that if the Sooners are really impressive in winning those last two games.
brad, big what if question...what if mizzou beats one loss texas in big 12 championship? the sec champ is one loss florida over bama in close game, usc, okla and texas tech all have one loss and utah is unbeaten. who plays florida in bcs title???
Brad Edwards (12:06 PM)
I think it would be between Oklahoma and USC. But even if the voters put USC one spot higher than OU, the Sooners' computer numbers might be enough to make up the difference.
Bruce, Los Altos, CA
Will USC make it to the NC game? If not, and if Oregon State wins out, will the Trojans still play in a BCS game?
Brad Edwards (12:08 PM)
For SC to have a chance of making the BCS title game, they need a 2-loss champion in either the Big 12 or SEC. And, as outlined before, that only gives them a chance. It wouldn't guarantee anything.
Brad Edwards (12:09 PM)
If Oregon State wins out and gets the Pac-10 automatic bid, I expect USC would end up with an at-large bid to the Fiesta Bowl.
When is the BCS going to add a rule which requires that a team win their conference (if they're in one) in order to play for the national championship? Seems like a no-brainer to me, and that would've avoided two controversies in 2001 and 2003, when a Big 12 team got in depsite losing its championship game.
Brad Edwards (12:13 PM)
Here's why they don't have such a rule (and never should). What if Missouri beats Texas for the Big 12 title, and Oregon State wins out, taking the Pac-10 championship? Who plays the SEC champ for the BCS title? If a rule said only conference champions were eligible, that means a one-loss Penn State would go instead of a once-beaten Oklahoma, Texas Tech or USC. I don't think that would be much of a service to college football fans.
Michael (Evansville, IN)
Mr. Edwards, If on championship Saturday Utah is sitting at #3 behind only undefeated Tech & undefeated Bama, is Utah out of the national championship game regardless of what happens that day in the Big 12 & SEC title games? Or, would Utah sneek in with say a Tech loss to Missouri or a Bama loss to Florida?
Brad Edwards (12:16 PM)
Utah isn't playing for the BCS title under any circumstances. When BYU won the national championship in 1984, it was undefeated, and every other team except Washington (which lost late) had at least two blemishes. But that was in a time when teams like BYU and Utah weren't on national TV very often, so nobody really had an idea of how they would stack up against the best. I can't speak for that BYU team, but I've seen this year's Utah team enough times to know that it isn't even one of the six best teams in the country, and I'm guessing the voters would feel the same way.
Mike (Miami, FL)
Assuming Bama and UF both win out, will we be witnessing perhaps the biggest game in the SEC since they split into the 2 division format? Also with excitement of de facto semifinals in both the SEC and the BIG 12 will this finally influence the NCAA to inplement some sort fo playoff or plus-one format?
Brad Edwards (12:23 PM)
Unless Alabama or Florida loses before then, the SEC Championship will not only be the biggest conference title game ever played, but it will also be a virtual national semifinal. With the Big 12 title game played afterward, that day will be the closest thing college football has ever had to the Sunday when the AFC and NFC title games are played. I hope it happens, because it would be nice to get a small taste of what playoffs might feel like. But the NCAA has nothing to do with there not being a playoff in college football, so you're barking up the wrong tree there.
Could there be an all-SEC national championship? If Texas Tech is undefeated through the Big 12 championship, but then loses it to Mizzou, and then an 11-1 Florida gives Alabama its first loss in a nail-biter in the SEC championship, could Florida jump to no. 1 and Alabama only drop to no. 2? Or would Texas sneak in?
Brad Edwards (12:25 PM)
Even if it's a classic game, I think most voters would feel like Alabama had its shot at Florida on a neutral field, and someone else should then get a chance. It's not like the SEC has been the dominant conference in college football this season.
Matt - Cincinnati
Who do you like in the BE to take the BCS berth? If Cincinnati should win out and win the conference, who do you likely see them playing in the orange bowl?
Brad Edwards (12:26 PM)
The Big East champ isn't a lock for the Orange Bowl. Only the ACC champ is.
Michael (Long Beach, CA)
Brad, you seem to be the only person at ESPN to give OU a chance. I know they lost to Texas, but that was a close game and the Sooners were leading half way through the 4th. Running the table should count for something.
Brad Edwards (12:27 PM)
Most of the people I hear and read are assuming Oklahoma will win the tiebreaker because of that momentum. It'll sure be interesting.
which game would be better for TV ratings? undefeated bama and texas tech. or one loss texas vs. florida?
Brad Edwards (12:29 PM)
As fun as Texas Tech is to watch, Texas will always draw bigger ratings because of its tradition and larger fan base. There aren't a whole lot of matchups in all of college football that would rate higher than Texas vs Florida for the national title.
Steve (Montesano wa)
what happens if Boise State and Utah finish undefeate and in top 8
Brad Edwards (12:30 PM)
The higher-ranked team (likely Utah) will automatically get into the BCS, and the other team will have to hope it gets selected. And, by the way, they only have to be in the top 12 to be eligible.
Joe (Grand Rapids, MI)
When is the BCS going to get rid of the rediculous rule that a conference can only have 2 teams in the BCS? The Big 12 should obviously have 3 and probably should have had 3 last year.
Brad Edwards (12:32 PM)
I don't think the rule is so ridiculous for political reasons, but I understand why it angers people who want to see the best teams playing in the BCS. The great injustice this year is that if we end up with that three-way tie of 11-1 teams in the Big 12 South, one of them won't even go to a BCS game because of that rule.
Pandora (Box, GA)
Do you believe in the ?BCS Conspiracy? that is circulating around that the powers that be at the BCS purposely prevented Georgia from facing USC in the 2008 Rose Bowl because they did not want the Rose Bowl to produce the AP National Champion and split the national title?
Brad Edwards (12:34 PM)
Anyone circulating that rumor isn't aware that the Rose Bowl could not have picked Georgia last year unless the Sugar Bowl had agreed to release the Bulldogs. With Hawaii sure to be in the game, there was no chance the Sugar was going to release the SEC team.
James (Ames, IA)
Is it just me or does it seem like the Big 12 has no defense and relies heavily on home-field to win the BIG games?
Brad Edwards (12:36 PM)
That's a question that'll be answered in the BCS Championship Game, I guess.
What happens if Florida loses to S. Carolina or FSU, then beats Alabama?
Brad Edwards (12:37 PM)
It opens the door for USC to play for the national title.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
If OU makes it to the BCS title game and gets crushed, will they be treated in the same way Ohio State has?
Brad Edwards (12:39 PM)
That's a fair question, given OU's recent struggles in BCS games, and my guess is they would be treated similarly by the media. But I don't think a team with that offense is getting crushed by anyone.
Tim (Chicago, IL)
Help ease my worries about the BCS, if Florida wins out, there is no way they won't be playing in the Nat'l championship?
Brad Edwards (12:41 PM)
Penn State's loss pretty much guarantees that Florida is in by winning out, even if Alabama stumbles against Mississippi State or Auburn. I don't think USC stands a chance of finishing ahead of a 1-loss Florida.
Help me understand something. Everyone keeps using the logic, if OU wins out (beating Tech), Texas should be ranked higher due to the head-to-head win. Why is this logic only invoked in the OU/UT scenario. Using the same logic, Texas can't be ahead of Tech due to the loss and Tech can't be ahead of OU due to the head-to-head loss. Shouldn't it then come down to who is playing best at the end of the season?
Brad Edwards (12:43 PM)
Oklahoma's hope is that most voters will see it that way. My belief, though, is that Tech would fall behind both Texas and OU on Nov. 23, making it clear to voters that the real decision is between the Horns and the Sooners.
zoob (slc utah)
True or False. BYU can make BCS game by winning their final two games and finishing 11-1 in the Mountain West Conference.
Brad Edwards (12:46 PM)
If Boise State and Ball State both lose, I think 11-1 would get BYU in. If only Boise loses, it could be tight between BYU and Ball State.
If Ohio State wins out, do you see them getting an at-large BCS bid?
Brad Edwards (12:49 PM)
Assuming Penn State wins out and goes to the Rose Bowl, the final at-large spot into the BCS could be between Ohio State and a second non-BCS team. You can guess who has the advantage there.
Will J (Portland, OR)
So if the NCAA ever went to a playoff system, would you be out of a job?
Brad Edwards (12:51 PM)
1) The NCAA has nothing to do with the BCS or the bowl system (2) If there is some sort of playoff, it would probably use something similar to the current BCS Standings to help determine seeding and the at-large teams, so I'm guessing I'd still be able to feed the kids.
Why would you say voters would put Tech behind the other two when tech beat texas and handled Okie st more impressively than texas?
Brad Edwards (12:53 PM)
Because voters always overreact to the most recent result, and Tech would've lost the latest of the three tied teams. Look how far Texas fell in the polls after that loss on the final play at Tech. A lot of the voters even dropped them behind OU.
Kimberly (Houston, TX)
Do you think that if Texas posts impressive wins against their last two opponents and OU beats Tech, that the voters will let OU jump Texas in the polls?
Brad Edwards (12:56 PM)
I think style points are very important for Texas in the last two games. Texas Tech destroyed Kansas in Lawrence just a few weeks ago, and everyone has run it up on A&M. If Texas struggles in either game, it could certainly cost them some valuable votes.
Brad Edwards (12:57 PM)
Thanks, everyone! Gotta run