Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Simply Shawwa, San Francisco, Ca
So does beating you in Fantasy Football last week allow me to have my question answered? If so, what's up with Peyton Manning, he and harrison have been one step off all year. I know the O-line sucks but what else is going on?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Shawwa, I'd answer your questions even if won the game! I'm an equal opportunity chatter. The Indy issue has been the O line's injuries. Harrison has lost a step but when the O line holds its own this year, Manning has been playing pretty well, especially considering his knee woes.
Timm in Atlanta Ga
Have the Falcons done what it takes to win 10 games this year AND have a winning season NEXT year. This would be a first in Falcon History.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
I don't know how they'll do next year but I can say that I am on the Mike Smith for Coach of the Year bandwagon. What he and Thomas Dimitroff have been able to do to retool that team as quickly as they have is quite noteworthy. I would be surprised if Atlanta didn't win 10 games at this point.
Troy Madison, WI
Hey K.C. Am I crazy for thinking Jacksonville could upset Tennessee? If they focus on shutting the run game down, I think their secondary could handle Tennessee's receivers in man.
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
It's all going to come down if they can tackle. The Jags do have the muscle on D to take on the Titans but they are going to have to win a football game and not try to win a toughman contest.
Any chance you can write an article every week about how overrated Jay Cutler is?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Caleb, I knew when I was writing that article that I could be taking a risk given that Cutler was playing Cleveland. I will point out that Cutler had multiple near interceptions in that game that resulted from some incredibly low percentage passes. The gist of the article was also not that Cutler is a bad QB but that he won't be a great QB like many think he already is until he gets the bad decisions under control.
KC, I have two very big decisions and I need your help badly!! Thigpen over Rivers? Dunn over Benjarvus Green Ellis?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
The Ellis one is easy, as the Pats had a 90% POA win percentage in their first matchup against the Jets. As far as Rivers vs. Thigpen, I'd go Rivers because the Steelers secondary is so banged up.
Larry (Pasco, WA)
Can you see the Chargers pulling the upset against the Steelers?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Absolutely. Pittsburgh will be without McFadden and Townsend and that's a tough combination of losses against a passing game like SD's.
KC, How were Ty Laws metrics last season? Do you think he will help the Jets out? Maybe he can move to safety and prolong his career?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
I don't have the specific number in front of me but I believe he was in the 8-9 yard range. If he were playing in the Pats zone D that wouldn't leave him on an island, I'd think he was a great addition, but the Jets play a D that will likely leave him in that kind of coverage. It's a risky pickup, in other words.
Nizar ( Emerson, NJ)
Hey KC. Who is your pick this Sunday between the Giants and Ravens? If I can add a college football matchup between Auburn and Gergia? Why?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
I'd have to go with NY and UGA. The Giants will win for a number of reasons but the biggest edge is in the passing game. Derrick Mason has a bad shoulder and will either miss the game or be less than 100%. He's their only reliable target and you can't beat NY with no passing game.
Last week you gave Cleveland over Broncs, whats your prediction for tonites game?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Pats win this one 23-14.
PT (Franklin, NC)
Call me crazy but it seemed like Chris Johnson performed better for the Raiders against Carolina than Deangelo Hall did in any of the games he started for them?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
PT, you hit the nail on the head with Johnson. I won't go so far as to say he looked like Lester Hayes (he wears Hayes' #37) but he did allow only 44 yards on 8 pass attempts.
Nathan( Green Bay, WI)
Two big decisions. Big Ben, Delhomme, or Thigpen at QB? Burress or A. Braynt at WR?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
I'd go Thigpen at QB (I can't believe I'm actually saying that). I like Bryant a lot but his value this week is too tied to whether or not Galloway plays. Go Burress.
Back to you comment about Cutler and his bad decisions....So, you're telling me Brett Farve is an awful QB? Talk about a bad decision maker who forces the ball in his entire career...please explain
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
The issue for Cutler is that he has never been able to get his bad decision percentage down below 5%. The only QB to do well with that kind of bad decision percentage in the five years I've been running that metric is Ben Roethlisberger and even he wasn't at quite that high of a percentage. He also had a 9.1 YPA to offset the risks. Simply put, Cutler has to get this metric more around the 3% mark to take the next step to greatness.
Ryan (San Diego)
So then with the whole Cutler thing it would be fair to say that Rivers is a better qb right now than Cutler? Many at ESPN would find that crazy talk, not me tho
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Many in this chat will think it's crazy for me to say that Rivers is a better QB than Cutler (I've been on Rivers case for a few years now) but I would completely agree with that assessment.
Jonathan (Dallas, TX)
Hey KC! It's been a while. Need some fantasy advice for the weekend. First Thomas Jones or Deangelo Williams. Second, Plaxico Burress of Jerricho Cotchery? Thanks for the help and keep up the great work.
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Go DeAngelo and Burress. The Jets O line struggled badly the last time out against NE and I don't expect that to change much.
Who is the best CB in the NFL this season? I think I know who your going to say? Do you think he has a good shot at the Hall of Fame when his career is over?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
I'd have to go with Antoine Winfield. The HOF is both a popularity contest and a measure of greatness. Winfield has been a popular player so that won't be an issue. He probably will have to post a couple of additional good seasons to really make a run at Canton, though.
I read your comments about Jammer and Cromartie both having good YPA metrics. What do you attribute their problems to then (besides the pass rush)? Is their safety play and LB coverage poor? In my opinion, their coverage took a huge hit when Donnie Edwards left.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
I'd probably give that one to the pass rush. I'd also say that Cottrell's playcalling was part of it. He had matchup management issues in the past (something I detailed in SF 2005) and my scouting eye sense was that may have been occurring again.
John (Columbus, OH)
Why do you hate the Jets? Spotting the Pats 9 tonight - in bad weather with a 4th string RB against the 5th rank rush D in the league? Then you say Ty Law would be a good pick-up for the Pats, but bad move by the Jets? Now Winfield instead of Revis?!
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
John, I write columns for both the NY Times Fifth Down blog and WEEI.com, so believe me when I say I don't have any skin in this game! And I completely agree on Revis having a great year. He'd be my other All-Pro pick at cornerback.
Whats the deal with Torry Holt in St.Louis? Is it him? Thier bad QB? Or is it the O-Line?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
It's a bit of everything but I do think Holt has lost more than a step. I hate saying that because I've been a huge backer of his over the years. In his prime he was the best route runner in the league.
so you are a jet hater today it seems? sorry but this is not the same D or Oline as the last time they played.
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Let me give the NY D some due in that Calvin Pace and Kris Jenkins both deserve Pro Bowl berths (to go along with Revis and Rhodes). Even so, I don't like what I've seen on tape in their run D and question if they'll be able to beat NE at the POA often enough.
The Winning Team
Just like to say that I recovered my season by putting up 170 last week, easily my best fantasy week ever. Sorry about that.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
I'll take a defeat like a man and say great job last week! And I'm not at all upset with where I am at in the chat leagues. I would be in the playoffs in one league and am one of seven teams in a tie for 3rd in another league (craziest thing I've ever seen in the fantasy football world).
KC - You used to tout Asamaaupghaup as a top corner in football when nobody else on ESPN gave him much respect. Now everyone else claims he is hands down the best, but you say he's not top two. Are they just behind? Or do you just enjoy being a contrarian (I know the subtitle of your book)
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Asomugha is absolutely one of the best around, but I find it hard to give a guy an All-Pro nomination because the rest of the CBs on his team are subpar. It's not like teams tested Nnamdi and then figured they needed to go elsewhere. They just went elsewhere. Revis has been tested quite often and has more than passed that test, so that's why he gets my All-Pro nod.
Brad (Rochester, MN)
Quick hitter, pick 3: Cotchery, Holmes, M. Bradley, A. Gonzales. Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Bradley is the easy choice there and Holmes has too much upside to sit. Cotchery hasn't been doing much late and Gonzalez has a great matchup, so bench Cotchery.
Nathan (Green Bay, WI)
Whoa, you'd take Revis and Winfield over Woodson? The guy not only has really stepped up his game this year but he's been a huge influence on the players around him (i.e. Nick Collins).
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Nathan, I've been a big Woodson supporter the past couple of years. That Harris made the Pro Bowl in 2007 and Woodson didn't is simply wrong. The key to remember about the All-Pro picks is there are only two of them. It's not like the Pro Bowl where there are 4-6 picks (if not more). Woodson is a definite Pro Bowler.
What don't you like about the Jets Run D? They're holding opponents to 76 yards a game.
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
I've had about 10 of these "the Jets run D is great in yards per game" posts so I figure I'd better respond. I've broken down most of their games and although I like a lot of what I've seen (see the previous comment on their D), their worst game this year was probably the week 2 contest against NE. The Pats run O has been grading out very well and I expect that to continue.
We want Marty Schottenheimer here in Buffalo!
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
C'mon, don't give up on Jauron just becuase they've had a bit of a rough stretch. They are getting healthy again and that should help them make a strong run at the playoffs.
Is Ronnie Lott the greatest safety of All-Time?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
It's either him or Larry Wilson in my book.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Correct me if I'm wrong but rushing yards per game numbers tend to look a lot better when you get leads so big that your opponent has to pass for most of the game, right?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Good point by J.B. as to why NY's run totals might be better than their actual performance.
Do you think Terrell Owens will be a good Wr in PPR play for the rest of the season?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
With Romo back in the mix you've got nothing to worry about with Owens.
Is Bradley a better start than BJGE at the flex?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
I like Bradley a lot but I'm not sure I'd take him out for BJGE. Go with the good RB over the good WR most days of the week.
Luis (SB, CA)
KC, riddle me this: The Cowboys have a 'logjam' of sorts at DB, assuming Pacman returns. Newman and Henry seem to have two differnt styles. Newman is great man coverage and Henry is a strong Cover 2 type. Moving forward, and based on your metrics, would it make sense for the Cowboys to part way with Henry? I look at Adam Jones and Mike Jenkins and they seem to have the same type of speed man coverage skills. Not to mention Dallas is looking to develop later round picks like Scandrick. What do you think?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Good eye on the CB types, Luis. Wade Phillips plays a pressure scheme so a good cover-two CB isn't a good fit for his D. That's why Dallas has been trying to move Henry to safety and/or trying to replace him. I think in the long run they'd be better with Jones/Jenkins/Newman, but with Jones' off field issues and Newman injury issues, keeping Henry makes sense.
How important is the bad decision pct? Cutler is having a good season and is the worst decision maker.
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
Bad decisions can make the difference between being a good/very good QB and being a great one. That's all I'm saying on Cutler. He's a good/very good QB right now but there are many who have him a great one and he's not there yet.
Is Jason Peters the most overated LT in the NFL?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
His run blocking has been typically good this year (he's a road grader) but his pass blocking has been awful. I think it's generally known that his pass blocking is off this year so I might not list him as an overrated player.
KC's #1 fan. (you, not the city)
Holt, Branch, Mark Bradley, or Josh Morgan this week?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
After you start Mark Bradley, you'll be KC the team's #1 fan! He's going to have a great fantasy regular season run. Just be sure to find an alternate before the playoffs, as his matchups there are really tough.
KC, I am in one league, where I am in last place, but only 2 games out of first...talk about parity.
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
I think that is the crazy league I'm talking about. Six teams with a 6-4 mark. I've never seen anything like it!
Where would be a good spot for your boy JP Losman to play next season? I was thinking Tampa Bay! Gruden loves his mobile QBs?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
It would be a great fit but I do wonder how Gruden would deal with Losman's gunslinging tendencies. Losman takes more chances than Gruden typically likes to see his QBs take.
better keeper for next year; Hightower or Turner?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Wow, that's a heckuva quandary. I'd probably go Turner but you really can't go wrong.
Do you think the bills still have a shot if edwards stays heathly? and the Giants could take number 1 in the power rankings next week?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
I do think Buffalo can make a playoff run if their entire team stays healthy. And I would already have the Giants as #1 in a power ranking.
Who in the Bobby john brown is Larry Wilson?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
He's a Hall of Famer who played with the St. Louis Cardinals. He was the league's first great blitzer and, in a bit of trivia, once made an interception despite playing with two broken hands.
Do you think if the Bills ever ran some screen plays with Roscoe Parrish and Lee Evans they would move the chains better? What about trying some bombs to those guys as well? Atleast teams know that you are willing to go for their throat!
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Gary, I've been saying for a couple of seasons now that the Bills don't go vertical often enough. They are too close to the vest despite having maybe the best long pass receiver in the league.
Who's better according to your metrics Long or Clady? While watching the Broncos sometimes I just watch Clady and the guy is amazing.
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
It's a close call. I just ran some numbers on Jake Long's POA for ESPN The Mag and found that his POA win percentage was in the mid 90s. He also hasn't been allowing sacks, so his pass blocking is holding up. Clady is an elite pass blocker and his run blocking is quite good (at least in the 3-4 games I've broken down) so I'd have to call it a tie at the moment.
Josh (Anytown USA)
KC! Im wondering, how do Asomugha's numbers compare to that of Champ Bailey's during his stellar 2006 season?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
They won't be comparable in the sense that Bailey was thrown at something like 60 times in 2006. He allowed less than 5 YPA and had the best metrics of any CB I've tracked. Asomugha has similar numbers but again it is on less than 20 attempts so far this year.
I was offered Gore and Witten for Colston and Chris Johnson. Which side do you like better?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
KC, did you ever think of doing coaching metrics? you can start with andy reid and bad decision metrics...Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
I like Andy's coaching style a lot but I did not understand that short yardage call. The Eagles have pass blockers and not run mashers, so why not play to your strength?
How would you assess Matt Ryan's rookie season performance against some of the modern day greats? Kid looks like a 10 year vet out there, we love him here in Atlanta!
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I had Ryan as eventually developing into a Matt Hasselbeck type but he's actually already there right now. I'll put it this way - Matt Ryan is most impressive rookie QB I've seen in six seasons of tape breakdowns.
Do you still agree that Reggie Wayne is the best WR in the game?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
I'd say he is best when healthy but the injury is slowing him down a bit.
Ryan (San Diego)
Do you agree that more and more a player's overall talent is judged by the fans more and more based on the fantasy numbers they produce? I've noticed that at least on the offensive side now that more and more people play fantasy football
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
I think what the fantasy stats do are focus people's attention to a specific area of performance. It's the reason Brandon Marshall is thought of as a great wide receiver when he is actually more of a really good one.
How excited are you to watch ray lewis tackle brandon jacobs? Is there a better one-on-one player matchup this year?
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
It should also be fun seeing the Giants O line go up against a really good Baltimore run D. Now that's smashmouth football!
Need some fantasy help (ppr), pick two: Thomas Jones, DeAngelo, Plax. Thanks
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
I'll end this week on a fantasy football note - go with DeAngelo and Plax. Well, it's time to round up the kids and get some dinner so I've got to jet. I hope to see you all next week!