Chat with Brad Edwards
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Could the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game decide the tiebreaker between Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech?
Brad Edwards (12:04 PM)
An interesting thought. A win by Cincinnati would certainly strengthen the schedule of Oklahoma and could be enough to put them over the top of Texas in the computers. Either way, though, I think the computer numbers for UT and OU will be close enough that the tie will ultimately be broken by the 175 voters in the two polls.
If Alabama loses to Auburn but beats Florida in the SEC Championship, and, if Texas Tech wins out. Would there be a possibility of seeing a rematch of Texas Vs Texas Tech in the BCS Championship Game? If that is possible, would this send seismic shocks through the college football community against the BCS?
Brad Edwards (12:08 PM)
If Florida loses to FSU and then beats Alabama, I think this could happen. Even if voters try to move USC to No. 2 in the polls, Texas would jump them because of the computers. It could also happen the way you laid it out, but there would be more uncertainty because the SEC would have a 1-loss champion.
John (Watertown, NY)
How is it conceivable for people to think of having OU jump Texas if they beat TT this weekend? Wouldn't their loss to Texas play into the decision at all?
Brad Edwards (12:12 PM)
The issue is that there would presumably be a 3-way tie for the division between Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. In this case, voters would be justified in ignoring head-to-head, because there would be no way to rank the three teams without having one of them ahead of a team that beat them. Oklahoma would certainly have the most impressive finish to the season of the three, and that might be enough to get them ahead of Texas.
Brad Edwards (12:13 PM)
The chat application is doing some unusual things on my end, so if anything gets posted twice, or there appears to be an answer that doesn't have a question, please be patient. I'm sure they'll fix it soon.
Steve; Kansas City, Mo.
Do you think Oklahoma gets to the championship game if they win out? Thanks
Brad Edwards (12:16 PM)
I think Oklahoma wins the tie if there's a perception that it's a decision between three teams. If Texas Tech falls far enough after losing to Oklahoma (say, behind USC), the voters might recognize that it's really a decision between Oklahoma and Texas and then apply head-to-head as the deciding factor.
Underdog (Salt Lake City)
Is there any scenario in which Utah plays for the championship?
Brad Edwards (12:17 PM)
The BCS championship? No way
So if BYU beats Utah the MWC will likely have 2 teams in the top 15 one in the top 20, and no BCS bowl. Meanwhile the Big East will be lucky to get one team in the top 15 by the end of the year, isn't there something wrong with that?
Brad Edwards (12:19 PM)
There is, but nothing can be done about it immediately. There is a process in place whereby, if the MWC performs up to the level of an automatic-qualifying conference over a 4-year span, it could also earn an automatic BCS berth for its champion. So, it's not enough to have one strong season like this. The league has to keep doing it.
Sara (Boston, MA)
Since "style" points supposedly matter in the event of a three-way tie, is it helpful that Texas beat Kansas in Lawrence by a wider margin that OU beat Kansas at home?
Brad Edwards (12:21 PM)
It's helpful that Texas didn't play a close game after Texas Tech had wiped the field with that Kansas team a few weeks earlier. As sad as this is to say, I think most of the voters remember the Tech-Kansas game, but half of them would probably have to look at the schedule to remember that Oklahoma played Kansas.
What major BCS conference is at the biggest risk to lose their automatic BCS bid in 2011?
Brad Edwards (12:25 PM)
There's a better chance that the MWC could gain an automatic bid than there is that one of the current big six conferences would lose theirs. The system currently in place allows for there to be as many as 7 automatic-qualifying conferences, and as few as 5. You have to consider that the process doesn't just evaluate the champions or the top-25 teams in each conference; it also looks at the conferences from top to bottom, and teams like SDSU and Wyoming hurt the MWC a lot more than Syracuse hurts the Big East.
Darryl (Oakland, CA)
What's your take on President Elect Obama saying he'll throw his weight around to make sure there'll be a playoff in college football?
Brad Edwards (12:28 PM)
My take is that it won't be too high on his agenda -- at least it better not be. But if he ever gets around to it, I'm sure with the support of Congress, they could make something happen. All you have to do is threaten the current power conferences for having a monopoly on national titles through the BCS format, and I'm sure change could happen. It would certainly help that cause if we see another upset or two by a non-BCS conference team (like Boise State over Oklahoma).
Justin (Corpus Christi, TX)
Can you explain to me how Florida got a 1st place vote with two unbeaten teams infront of them. Let's be honest, Florida is getting way over hyped. Their big wins are vs. LSU and UGA (who aren't great) and lost to Ole Miss at home. Can't see how they should be ahead of UT or OU in any poll.
Brad Edwards (12:31 PM)
You have to remember that there is no direction given to voters by the polls. Some vote based on records of the teams, some vote on which teams have the most impressive overall seasons, and some vote on who they think are the best teams, regardless of record. Voters are free to use whatever criteria they choose. And if they're just voting on best team, regardless of record, I can see how they'd make Florida No. 1 right now. Doesn't mean I'd vote that way, but I see the logic.
Tyler (Nashville, TN)
If PSU were to lose this Saturday would they still be considered an at-large team for a BCS bowl game?
Brad Edwards (12:35 PM)
I think not. BCS games, even bowl games in general, are looking for teams with momentum, because that translates into fan excitement and ticket sales. And it certainly doesn't help that PSU fans can't drive to any of the BCS locations.
Do you see Utah getting Fiesta or Sugar if they beat BYU?
Brad Edwards (12:38 PM)
I think the Fiesta's interest would depend on how the Big 12 shakes out, and what kind of matchups they could put together because of that. Given that Ohio State has had a season that must be considered a disappointment to its fans, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that Utah or Boise State would bring just as many fans as OSU. The catch is whether the matchup is as attractive.
So why is College Gameday not at the BYU-Utah game this week? There is way more drama in this game than the TT-OU game. The "Holy War" with 1 loss between the two teams with BCS on the line > TT-OU.
Brad Edwards (12:40 PM)
Mike forgot to take his pills this morning.
Matt (Midland, MI)
If Michigan State upsets Penn State on the road saturday, what are the chances they will end up in the top 12 BCS standings? What are their chances of landing an at-large bid as the co-Big Ten Champs?
Brad Edwards (12:43 PM)
They'd only have to be top 14 to be BCS eligible as an at-large. MSU would definitely get that high. But I'm not sure any of the bowls would choose them over Boise State. I know that sounds odd, but I think it's true, given that the Fiesta and Sugar would be the potential targets.
Taylor (Tuscaloosa, AL)
Someone mentioned Alabama losing to Auburn and then beating Florida in the SEC Championship Game. If that happened, would Alabama be right back in the title game picture, or do they have to go undefeated this late in the season?
Brad Edwards (12:46 PM)
I think Alabama would still have a chance in that scenario if there were only two Big 12 teams with fewer than 2 losses. If there are three, the computers would make it tough for Alabama to climb back up. Let's be honest. With Clemson, Tennessee and Auburn all having mediocre to bad seasons, the Alabama schedule isn't nearly as tough as it looked in August.
Right now, the at-large teams would be SEC loser, B12 loser, USC, and Utah. Does Ohio St have any chance as an at-large without Penn St or Oregon St losing?
Brad Edwards (12:50 PM)
I'd say Big 12 South runner-up, but your point is the same. Many people, including myself, keep assuming that Oregon State will lose and, therefore, Ohio State will be in the BCS. But you are right. If the Beavers win the last two games, the Buckeyes are probably headed for the Capital One Bowl.
Could a one loss BYU team (that beats Utah) get into a BCS bowl? What would it take?
Brad Edwards (12:53 PM)
I think BYU is in the BCS with a win over Utah and a loss by Boise State.
Dont you think that a playoff would diminish the importance of the regular season since you would only have to win enough games to make the playoff? Supposing a team had enough cupcakes that its record was satisfactory to make it in....wouldnt we really have pretty much the same mess on our hands deciding who is playoff worthy?
Brad Edwards (12:57 PM)
My personal preference is an 8-team playoff with automatic bids to the 6 major conference champions, and an automatic bid to the highest-ranked non-BCS champion if that team is in the top 10. That leaves only one or two at-large spots, so it wouldn't change much at all about the regular season. The only problem is a situation like Pitt's upset of West Virginia last year. WVU had already clinched the Big East title, so that wouldn't have had the same impact, but it wouldn't still meant something. In my model, the quarterfinals would be played on home field of the higher seed, so WVU would've lost home-field advantage by losing to Pitt.
Brad Edwards (12:58 PM)
Thanks, everyone. I have a feeling there will be a few issues to talk about next week if Oklahoma wins. Have a good week.
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