Chat with Brad Edwards
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Jacob - Florida
Big 12. In all practicality, it's between Oklahoma and Texas. Why is it not as easy as who won head-to-head between those two? It was a neutral field, double-digit game won by Texas, and not in the final seconds. To start talking about which team is "hotter" gives a disproportionate amount of credit to the timing of a schedule.
Brad Edwards (1:07 PM)
Here are the dueling issues. It's both a 3-way tie and a 2-team race. Within a 3-way tie, head-to-head should be ignored if they all went 1-1 against each other, which is the case here. If it's a 2-team race, head-to-head is the logical factor to decide it. This is a collision of voting philosophies. At least for now, it seems more voters are in the "hottest team at the moment" camp. The only chance Texas has of winning a 3-way tie is to sway some of those voters back to the head-to-head way of thinking. There is sure to be a lot of lobbying by both sides this week, and it has indeed already begun. But as we sit right now, I don't like Texas' chances of coming out on top in this one.
Phil (Phoenix, az)
Why is everyone in love with Florida and USC? Both teams lost to unranked teams and USC is out of a weak Pac-10?
Brad Edwards (1:11 PM)
They are more in love with Florida, because the Gators have been dominant on both sides of the ball since that loss. USC has certainly had a few offensive games (Arizona and Cal) that weren't up to the standard they've set in recent years. The funny thing is that both teams they lost to have turned out to be pretty good. Oregon State is on the verge of winning the Pac-10, and Ole Miss went on to win at LSU and lost by only four in Tuscaloosa.
If OU wins against O State on Saturday, and florida wins out, do you think there is a possibility that Florida wont jump texas or OU to get into the BCS National Championship?
Brad Edwards (1:18 PM)
No chance, in my opinion. My best guess is that Florida will be ranked No. 1 in both polls if it wins out, and that would make it nearly impossible for the Gators to not jump over at least one of those Big 12 teams in the BCS.
Nolan ( Dallas,Tx )
If Oklahoma barely beats OSU will they still catch the Longhorns in the BCS
Brad Edwards (1:22 PM)
That win alone will be enough to help Oklahoma make up the remainder of the deficit to Texas in the BCS because of what it will do for the Sooners in the computers. The only chance Texas has to win the 3-way tie is to sway some voters back to their side. Another big win by Oklahoma might make that more difficult, but I don't think OU would be penalized in any way for a close victory in Stillwater.
What are the odds Utah makes it? 10%?
Brad Edwards (1:24 PM)
If you're talking BCS Championship Game, I say 1% (really, I think 0%, but I learned from one of my ESPN colleagues never to say 0% on the record). If you're talking any BCS game, I say 99%.
Alex (Dallas, TX)
If OU loses to OSU this weekend, and TTU proceeds to win the Big XII title, do you see Texas getting the nod to the national title game despite not winning their own division?
Brad Edwards (1:26 PM)
I know other people don't buy into this, but I truly believe if Oklahoma loses on Saturday, and Texas Tech ends up winning the Big 12 title, that Tech will play in the BCS championship game. I don't think voters would have any choice but to move them over Texas because of head-to-head and the conference title.
Robert, Birmingham Alabama
Is there anyone out there giving Alabama a chance at all against Florida?
Brad Edwards (1:29 PM)
Not really, but I'll say this. I think the only team Florida has played that is close to as good as Alabama on both lines of scrimmage is Ole Miss ... and we know what happened in that game. I expect Alabama to match up fairly well, but when you play Florida, you can't give them short fields and easy points from your offense and special teams. Ole Miss may be the only team that's been able to do that against the Gators all season.
Joel (South Bend)
Isn't the best thing TCU and Boise St. can hope for at this point is to play each other in a bowl game? Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't it a possibility for both to play in the Poinsettia Bowl?
Brad Edwards (1:31 PM)
Not sure what bowl game would be the logical site for it, but I expect there will be some interest in putting Boise State and Ball State against each other. I guess Boise and TCU is also a possibility. It's just a matter of whether an agreement can be reached that satisfies everyone.
Alex (Dallas, TX)
If Florida loses to FSU and then beats Bama for the SEC championship, is it possible to have a national championship game between two big 12 schools or would you see a one loss Bama/USC/PSU or a 2 loss Florida still making it?
Brad Edwards (1:32 PM)
If Oklahoma and Texas win out, and this scenario takes place, I think we get an OU-Texas rematch for the BCS title.
Agree or Disagree: You must win your league championship in order to play for the National Title?
Brad Edwards (1:34 PM)
Strongly disagree. It's conceivable that the top 3 teams in the BCS Standings could end up being teams that didn't win their conference championships. If that happens, I don't want to see 4 vs 5 for the national title.
is there a scenario that would have FL playing USC for the championship
Brad Edwards (1:36 PM)
I don't think so. My opinion is that the only team USC can play for the national title is Texas. I believe USC needs these four results: Florida State beats Florida and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this weeked. Florida beats Alabama and Missouri beats Texas Tech next weekend. I don't see any other way for USC.
For Ohio State, does it basically come down to they're in the BCS if Oregon State loses, but heading to the Capital One Bowl if Oregon State wins? Thanks.
Brad Edwards (1:38 PM)
That's the way I see it. If Oregon State wins, I think USC plays in the Fiesta Bowl.
It's an absolute travesty that a legitimate team like Boise State could go undefeated and then be relegated to a bowl such as the Humanitarian bowl. Is that where you see Boise state playing this year?
Brad Edwards (1:40 PM)
It's possible, but I think an effort will be made to get them to another bowl against a ranked team. The worst thing for Boise is that they might be ranked significantly ahead of the ACC, Big East and Pac-10 champions and left out of the BCS.
Brad we were screwed out of a BCS game over a team that we beat in the season last year. You don't think that Tech is going to be put in the same situation?
Brad Edwards (1:43 PM)
Difference is that Missouri had two losses, and Kansas only had one, so head-to-head wasn't absolute. The bigger deal, though, is that voters don't think much about stuff like that when it comes to teams out of national title contention. In this year's case, I can't see how people could keep Texas ahead of Texas Tech.
Brad, do you think if FSU were to upset Florida, this could seriously help Texas win the big 12 south in case of a three-way tie. What this does is bring Texas to #3 in the coaches and Harris polls, hence closing the gap in the human polls. We already have the advantage in the computer polls.
Brad Edwards (1:46 PM)
A great point I hadn't considered yet. A Florida loss would help Texas in the polls more than Oklahoma, and every little bit could help ... if Oklahoma doesn't quite catch Texas in the computers.
Wouldn't the Fiesta Bowl have the choice of Texas or Texas Tech if OU goes to the title game? Any insight into who they'd pick? You can't tell me a potential Texas/USC game would get passed up...
Brad Edwards (1:49 PM)
I think the only shot Tech has at a BCS game is the national championship game. No way Fiesta chooses them over Texas.
Rich (Denver, CO)
Who do you think is a better lobbyist for his team? Mack Brown or Bob Stoops?
Brad Edwards (1:51 PM)
Mack Brown is a lot more experienced in this role, but Stoops is closing fast. It's only Monday, and I'm already sick of hearing both of them argue their team's case.
Tim (Chattanooga, TN)
Despite who wins the SEC Championship, do both Florida and Alabama get BCS bowl bids?
Brad Edwards (1:53 PM)
I think so, and presumably the SEC title game loser will play Utah in the Sugar Bowl.
Ok, so explain this one...PSU played a tougher schedule than USC and beat the team that USC lost to 31 points. Both PSU and USC have 1 loss, on the road with PSU's coming on a last second field goal...so, how is USC 5th and PSU 8th?!?
Brad Edwards (1:54 PM)
preseason perception ... and PSU lost later in the season. Aren't the polls wonderful?
Lisa (Eagle, Idaho)
What percentage would you give Boise State of being selected as an at-large to the BCS. I hear all the reasons why they wouldn't be picked but a.) the fans WOULD travel and b.) People would be interested in the game after the fiesta bowl in 2006
Brad Edwards (1:56 PM)
I give them a very low percentage chance of being chosen, although I'm certain the bowls believe they have an excited fan base that would sell plenty of tickets. The problem is that the choice would be Boise over USC or Ohio State. The BCS wasn't set up to be fair.
Brad Edwards (1:56 PM)
Thanks, everyone. We'll chat again next Monday about whatever new mess is on our hands.
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