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Rob Neyer

  (12:01 PM)

OK, here we go. Feel free to convince me that I'm wrong...

shawn west hartford, ct

I would not take Lowe for 5 years. I fear that Lowe has 2 or 3 good years left then will fall off the table due to age.

Rob Neyer

  (12:02 PM)

You mean like Jamie Moyer? No, I know they're not the same pitchers. One's a very good sinker-baller, the other's an all-time freak. But we do have the example of sinker-baller Tommy John, who just kept pitching and pitching and pitching.

Joe (Washington, DC)

Rob, wouldn't you be worried that with Lowe you would wind up with a Kevin Brown type situation? I wouldn't sign him to more than a 2 year deal. Whatever team signs him long term is going to be stuck with an older and ineffective pitcher in years 3 and 4, maybe even earlier.

Rob Neyer

  (12:05 PM)

Well, it could happen. While Brown hadn't been *quite* as durable as Lowe has been, nobody ever accused Brown of not working hard. There's always a risk with pitchers, but I don't see any reason to think a five-year deal would be particularly risky.

Aaron (Cincinnati)

Does your opinion change if you are say the Yankees or Red Sox? With a higher payroll aren't you less risk averse and more likely to go for the high ceiling talent?

Rob Neyer

  (12:08 PM)

Sure, the opportunity cost is a bit different for a team that can cover up mistakes (and accidents like Julio Lugo and Kei Igawa) with more spending. But it's not *that* different.

Jack (Toronto)

Doesn't it make sense for the Jays to make a play for Lowe? His ground ball outs are tailor made for the Jays infield defense.

Rob Neyer

  (12:09 PM)

Great point, Jack. In these discussions it's always worth remembering that every team is unique. That said, do we know that the Jays' infield defense will still be excellent in (say) three or four years? Life is dynamic...

George (NY)

Derek Lowe's 2003 era with Boston - 4.47; Derek Lowe's 2004 era with Boston - 5.52.

Rob Neyer

  (12:11 PM)

Right. His performance got a LOT better in 2005 when he moved to the National League. So much better, in fact, that I have a hard time believing it was due simply to the league change. I suspect he's either healthier or smarter now than he was in '04.

Doug (NY)

Burnett's injury history scares me away from offering him more than 3 years....you?

Rob Neyer

  (12:13 PM)

Actually, it sort of scares me away from offering him more than three months. Is that at all rational? I don't know.

Oscar (Los Angeles)

I think that if you had put Burnett in the NL West the last couple of years, he would have put up even more dominant stats. Im not so sure Lowe would have been as successful in the AL East. Your thoughts?

Rob Neyer

  (12:14 PM)

Oscar, I think that's unquestionable true. The question is, where do their stats meet if they're pitching for the same team? And for how long?

Andre GA

A bit off topic ... but, how would Ben Sheets stack up against these two?

Rob Neyer

  (12:15 PM)

We'll get to off-topics in a bit, after we've beaten this topic into submission...

Brendan (NYC)

Rob, What do you make of the fact that Burnett has pitched great against the Yanks and Sox during his Jays career?

Rob Neyer

  (12:17 PM)

Maybe it says something, but if it says he's great at getting up for the good teams, I would wonder why he's not pitching better against the crummy teams.

JP (Dunstable, MA)

While Lowe does have a good 4.5 years on Burnett in age, 31 isn't exactly young, especially for a power pitcher who's been in the majors for parts of ten seasons. It seems like Lowe's style of pitching has a better chance of staying consistent with age, and although age won't be as big a factor with Burnett, in the end years of a five year contract, it would still be a factor. Couple that with his injury history and I have to agree Lowe is the more sensible choice.

Rob Neyer

  (12:19 PM)

Actually, strikeout rate is a solid indicator of future success, but when a power pitcher loses something, he's still throwing hard enough to get people out. If Lowe were a conventional pitcher, I'd be worried about his future. But Lowe's far from conventional, as he throws one of the best sinkers we've ever seen.

Ryan (Astoria, NY)

Derek Lowe has experience closing games as well, which would have been a huge asset for a team like the Mets this year. Does this flexibility influence your decision?

Rob Neyer

  (12:21 PM)

Oh, I suppose that might be an interesting tie-breaker. But Lowe was actually a bit miscast as a reliever, and I don't see him returning to that role during his next contract.

Greg (Columbus)

Isn't this argument about a five year contract a moot point, anyway? Who would give Lowe a contract that doesn't run out until he's 41, and who would give Burnett five years with his injury history?

Rob Neyer

  (12:22 PM)

Okay, so let's say four years instead; the arguments are still roughly the same, right?

Matt (Boulder, CO)

Do you think teams will be turned off by what happened to Lowe in the NLCS? His numbers weren't terrible but coming from someone who didn't miss a game, when he got in trouble he started getting really fidgety on the mound and had a terrified look like a kid who just got caught reading his dad's Playboy. It looked like he had lost all his big game prowess.

Rob Neyer

  (12:24 PM)

He didn't help himself, but overall his postseason record is plenty solid. I don't think anybody's really going to hold one game against him.

Charles Toronto, Ontario

For a team a lot of times it comes down to taking a chance on an injury prone player. For this reason I would chose AJ as he would have the most impact on his teams success if he stays healthy. Could Lowe win you a pennant on his own year after year...Probably not. Could AJ if healthy...Maybe not either but the potential is there.

Rob Neyer

  (12:27 PM)

Okay, here's a fundamental problem I have with Burnett, even aside from all those stints on the DL . . . He's never been all that great. He's never picked up a single point in the Cy Young balloting. The best ERA+ in his career was 122, six years ago; Lowe's *career* ERA+ is 122. I think Lowe might be healthier *and* more talented.

Don (Southington, CT)

What do you make of Lowe's issues in Boston with the public and media? Do you really believe it is all in the past like he says or do you think he'd be making a target of himself all over again - in Boston or NY?

Rob Neyer

  (12:29 PM)

I think he's better off not pitching in one of those markets. Except in road gray.

Jason (Orlando)

Maybe Lowe got better because he left the "great game caller" known as the overrated Jason Varitek.

Rob Neyer

  (12:29 PM)

Good one, Jas.

Doug (NJ)

I think the real question we should be asking is, are either of these two pitchers worth the money and the years they are looking for? Both are good pitchers, but I wouldn't consider either to be an ace off a team's staff.

Rob Neyer

  (12:31 PM)

You're right, Doug . . . But neither of them's going to get "ace money". Ace money these days is $18 million (or more) per season, while I see Lowe getting around $15 million, Burnett a bit less.

Daniel (Albany)

Why would Lowe be better off outside of a big market? Didn't he tear it up in the playoffs for the Sox in 2003?

Rob Neyer

  (12:34 PM)

Indeed he did, Daniel. And that came after a pretty weak season. You know how I feel about mind-reading...

JC (Tampa)

So basically this is a debate about which average pitcher should you pick. Yawn. How about something interesting.Why wouldn't the Cubs offer Wood arbitration? Is one year at 10M a bad thing for a guy who was really good?

Rob Neyer

  (12:40 PM)

They're not average; they're both non-average and in completely different ways. So I think they're interesting. But after 39 minutes I haven't been convinced I'm wrong about Lowe, so we'll move along . . . Would Wood have gotten only $10 million? Yeah, I'm a little surprised they didn't offer him arbitration, but it's not like they don't have a replacement for him. The question is whether they've got a replacement for the replacement...

Ryan (Astoria, NY)

Rob - Two straight September collapses and the Mets haven't made a peep yet. What gives?

Rob Neyer

  (12:44 PM)

Well, nobody's really made any peeps yet, right? None of the big boys, anyway. Don't worry, the Mets will spend some coin on relief help, probably next week.

Jim (Mesa, AZ)

So now let's revisit Ben Sheets. Wasn't he the ace before the CC trade and isn't he just as good as the subjects in the opening of this discussion.

Rob Neyer

  (12:44 PM)

I think Sheets is a slightly heavier-duty version of Burnett, but the injury questions are still out front.

Doug (NY)

What about Abreu for the Yanks? Has the economy impacted things so much that he'd actually consider accepting an arbitrator's reward of $16M?

Rob Neyer

  (12:48 PM)

I don't know, but that's about $4 million more than he's worth. Considering his poor defense, he's not going to be much better than average next season.

Mike(Monterey, Ca)

Marmol and Marshall are both good backups to Gregg. Only a handful of closers are worth over 10 million a year and Wood isnt one of them. Plug in any decent releiver and he will get the saves. Saves shouldn't even be a stat.

Rob Neyer

  (12:50 PM)

Saves should be a stat but managers should ignore them. As for Gregg, he really has to be backing up Marmol, right? I haven't been reading the Chicago papers lately, but do they have Gregg slated to close?

Jason (Lincoln, Ca)

For those that were offered arbitration, if they dont accept by the deadline and another team signs them after that deadline, does the team that signs the player still have to give up a draft pick?

Rob Neyer

  (12:53 PM)

Yes. The key is the offering of the arbitration; the accepting is irrelevant.

Frank (NY)

Gut feeling, where does CC land?

Rob Neyer

  (12:55 PM)

I know there's a joke here, but I'll play it straight . . . I suppose the obvious answer is that he takes the Yankees' money, but I sort of like him going to the Angels if they can't sign Teixeira.

Steve NYC

The elephant in the room isn't CC's weight problem. The elephant in the room is CC himself. C'mon Rob, more fat jokes!

Rob Neyer

  (12:58 PM)

Such jokes are so far beneath me, they're above me.

Chris (Chicago)

Lou plans on using Marmol in the "tight" spots. You know, what "should" be considered a save...

Rob Neyer

  (1:01 PM)

That would be radical, wouldn't it? Let's hope it happens. For the sake of Cubbie fans everywhere.Thanks for all the questions; not bad for early December! Until next time, remember: "History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again."