Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football.
Mario Williams (Houston, TX)
KC, I can't get any one on one sacks because I'm constantly getting double teamed. Shouldn't you account for that in your pass rushing metrics?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Mario, in my last review of your season I found that most of your sacks were of the one on one variety. So consider it accounted for!
Burwell (Addison, PA)
Favre has almost as many interceptions (15) as Rodgers and Pennington combined (17). And he has a lower QB rating and fewer passing yards than both. No question here, just an interesting stat never reported by the media in their never ending Favre love-fest.
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Burwell, that is spoken like a true football scientist. Let the facts speak for themselves.
Awesome season so far for the Fins. Can they complete it with a division title?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Absolutely. It will take a win over the Jets in week 17 but if they can pull that off, the playoffs should be in reach.
What is wrong with Buffalo Bills Rookie 2nd round WR James Hardy? He only has 9 catches for 87 yards this season. Is Hardy ever going to contribute?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I haven't delved deep into the metrics on this one but my gut instinct says that Hardy's best skills don't match what Buffalo wants to use him as. They have Evans as their primary vertical threat and that may be Hardy's best skill set as well.
KC, What are your thoughts on this? Do you think the Buffalo Bills will fire Dick Jauron if the Bills finish 6-10 or 7-9(regardless of an extension?)? Do you think former Buffalo Bill Marty Schottenheimer would be a good fit for the Bills?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
I wrote a lot about Marty and old coaches in Blindsided (which makes a great Christmas gift, by the way). Coaches tend to lose their effectiveness after 10 years but they often buck that trend until they've won a championship. I'd still keep Jauron around if I were Buffalo but they may have to look at it from a PR standpoint instead of a football standpoint if the season continues to fall apart.
JERRY ORLANDO FLA
RAVENS OR STEELERS?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Until I did some research this week for an ESPN The Mag piece on Baltimore, I would have said Pittsburgh. Now that I've crunched some of the Ravens offensive numbers in greater detail, I'm saying Baltimore takes this one.
Luis (SB, CA)
KC, happy Thursday. You've mentioned before that DWare has increased his coverage sacks. He's now .5 sacks behind league leader. Is this something you can fault a player for? I mean, if the team's coverage is great, he will thrive with more time.
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
You know, Luis, it's a hard thing to knock any player who has as many sacks as Ware. Having said that, my take on him has been that his sacks are effort sacks and not technique sacks. There's something to be said for that but I'd still like to see more technique sacks from him (like the ones he had against Seattle).
KCJ! What are your thoughts on Domenik Hixon this week considering he had a HUGE drop last week? Will he have a better game than Anthony Gonzalez? Any thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Tough call there, as Hixon is a starter and Gonzalez a #3 and I usually go with the starter in that case. Gonzalez has Detroit, however, and that is a trump card in any tiebreaker so I'd take the chance and go Gonzalez.
Eric (Long Island, NY)
hey kc! you seem to think it isnt jaurons fault that this has happened. I sort've agree that he isn't the worst coach but at same time I can't justify it being unfair if they were to fire him. Saying that, what do you think it is holding the Bills back? some think its because the players are young but havent people been saying the Bills are a year or two away for quite some time? Also their schedule was vs afc and nfc west and seems to get harder after this year.
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Part of it is because Jauron is a good person who works well with the organization. They've been through worse from that perspective and don't want to take a step backwards in that area.
Chances Bill Cowher comes and saves my Browns from more years of rebuilding and horrible football?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Regarding Cowher, I'll revisit that chapter from Blindsided on old coaches and point out that once they win their championships, their win percentage starts dropping off quickly. Hiring Cowher is buying into a declining market.
Us Bills fans are calling for the termination of Dick Jauron? The guy is not the answer here? Lets bring in a Coach who brings energy to the team! Somebody who isn't afraid to discipline his players! Somebody who steps foot in the locker room and instantly has his players attention. So bringing in a proven Headcoach like a Bill Cowher,Marty Schottenheimer, Brian Billick for EX... would do alot of good! Bringing in a unproven guy like the Bills did with Gregg Williams and Mike Mularkey only goes so far? These guys wont have all their players attention because they havent proved themselves yet? How long can us Bills fans wait! NOT 4-EVER!!!!!!
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Another Bills fan calls for Jauron's job. Again, they may have to make the move from a PR point of view.
With free agency, turnover and all of that, very few players make it 10 years with a team. So short of reading the book, why do coaches in any sport become less effective after 10 years?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Al Davis surmised that it is because the core of the team (which typically will have been around for at least most of the coaches tenure) will start to tune him out after that amount of time. Plus the job is like the presidency in that it takes a lot out of people.
Kory State College, Pa
Does Devin Hester get in the Endzone tonight???
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
The Saints CB combination of Randall Gay and Jason David have actually been playing quite well of late, so I'd lean towards no.
Good day KC, I have the WR blues. I din't pull the trigger on Walter and he goes off. I have Witten, Toomer, Berrian (Gus Bus Broken) and Breaston ribs hurt). What do you think-grab Walter (Harper banged up)? Bess is gone 30 minutes ago, Mason still these and big sleeper Branch is out these start 3 1 ppr. Possible shoot out in Dallas?Good call on Indy last week. Indy over Ravens for less points allowed?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
I might take the chance on Branch out of that bunch. I like Walter a lot if Harper doesn't play (and even more if Finnegan happens to miss) so if you are willing to take that risk, I'd go Walter over Branch.
Kory (State College, Pa)
Fantasy Help!!! I need to start one WR between Braylon Edwards, Devin Hester or Anthony Gonzalez??
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
I'd go Gonzalez. Matchups against Detroit are usually fantasy gold.
Dustin (Canton, Oh)
Who do you like more tonight....Colston or Moore?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
Moore had his run but Colston is the definite go to WR for NO. I'd take him.
Did you see me run over your boy Tanard Jackson Monday? I thought he was good.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
DeAngelo is good too so let's give credit where it is due. And these two might meet up in the playoffs so let's see how Tanard holds up then.
Scott (Nantucket, MA)
KC, I need your help choosing a TE this weekend. Do I go with the more proven Scheffler (more explosive passing game looking to throw 40+ times, but competing with Marshall, Royal, Stokely, Graham, etc.) or Z. Miller (only promising threat in a horrible passing Offense, but matched up with NE's aging, injury-riddled LBs)? Please help!
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
As much as Miller has been targeted of late (and not just on dumpoff passes either), I'd go with him.
Broad Street Brian (Philly)
The TE position has not been very good this year. Is Witten now the best in the league?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
If I were starting a team today, I'd take Witten but for this single year, let's give Tony Gonzalez his due credit for being #1. He's had a very good year.
Love your stuff KC!! Your draft guide helped me to the #1 seed and a first round bye. I have my first playoff game tonight and have westbrook as my first back but cant decide between Bush and Pierre Thomas as my second in a PPR league. I would love some advise.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Glad I could help! As far as the Bush/Thomas question, as much as I like Thomas, you pretty much have to go Bush, especially in a PPR league.
patrick robinson richmond va
i was not impressed with jason cambell at all it seems like he left off where he started why keep him why not put ur backup in that got u to the playoffs i think he is a whole lot better
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
Patrick, I think Campbell made the Skins offense look a heckuva lot better than it was earlier this year. He's hit a bit of a rut of late but that's no reason to give up on a guy who has shown himself to be an NFL caliber starter.
Nice TJack answer. Can't believe he wasn't in the top five of fan pro-bowl votes. And no Beason at MLB. Fans don't deserve their vote.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Mac, I'm still for the fans being able to vote but I'd agree on Jackson's vote total as not being a good reflection on their knowledge.
KC, What is going on with Santana Moss? He is worth starting this week over Bernard Berrian and Braylon Edwards?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
I know I wouldn't start Braylon because I don't trust any Cleveland player on the road against a really fired up Philly team that will likely be playing for the #6 spot in that game. Berrian is iffy because of the QB situation as well and since Moss has the Bengals, I'd go with him.
Were Jenkins and Barnett that important to the Packers D? Or is there another underlying cause to their disappointing season?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
I think it was just a matter of GB not being quite as good as their record showed last year. This is a team with a 9-7/10-6 talent level and they may end up the year with 7 wins. That's a bit below what they should be at but not a complete collapse yet that's how it will be seen because they were in the NFC Championship game the year before.
Greg - tampa
How did Tampa's vaunted D get trampled like that on Monday?? Was Monte's mind elsewhere, like UT?? Carolina ran over some pansies earlier this year, but no one expected this. What gives?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
If there is one thing that most cover-two defenses can't handle, it is a strong running game. That type of scheme requires more athleticism than bulk and thus leads to this Achilles Heel.
Can Chad Pennington get some MVP talk for his part in the turnaround in Miami?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
MVP talk for Pennington? I'm not sure I'd go nearly that far but you could talk me into Sparano for coach of the year.
Luis (SB, CA)
Can we put this whole "Fans shouldn't vote" to rest? First,it's about getting the fans, who watch, pay for, and sustain the league to see their favorite players play. Second, those who go don't go 100% for obvious reasons anyways so why not have the fans' favorite players in Hawaii? Third, how boring would the Pro Bowl be if they went off of ONLY stats? Lastly, the coaches and players all get a 3rd of the vote. So the fans vote is not the final say. Whew! I feel better now
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
I couldn't agree more that the fans should be allowed to vote. It may be a popularity contest but it does make some fans take a closer look at the game when deciding these things.
Michael Vick a Seattle Seahawk! Can u see it! Jim Mora Jr will make it happen!
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
We just ran a scientific experiment here to see how desperate being 2-11 makes a fan base and this was the result.
Derek (Minneapolis, MN)
I need to start Lynch or Pierre and am concerned that the Jets will get up taking Lynch out of the game, but Pierre doesn't get as many carries and plays Chiacgo who has only given up 70 yards at home to RB's. Your thoughts???
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
If the matchup is equal, give me a starter over a split carry guy any day of the week. Go with Lynch.
If Denver were to clinch the division this week, which would be the more likely reason: SD loses at KC or DEN wins at CAR?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
SD losing at KC. They've struggled badly in Arrowhead over the years and the Chiefs are a heckuva lot better than their record indicates.
Mick (New Bedford MA)
KC, do you see the Jets passing O rebounding this week - if so, which WR is the better play, Coles or Cotchery?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Mick, I just couldn't trust a fantasy playoff game to either of those guys right now. There are too many other wideouts out there who are both safer and higher upside plays.
Good thought Matt, dump one of the better QB's in the league for Vick...You haven't had your starting WR's and QB...ahh who am I kidding, how many times have I heard the call for McNabb's head.
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
And you know what's really tough, Sean? That the Eagles will very likely make the playoffs with a QB their fan base has called for dumping many times this year. I'm betting McNabb is still in the city of brotherly love next year if they do clinch a wild card spot.
Matt Forte for Rookie of the year? This guy does it all, and acts like a true veteran. He can not only run and make safeties miss, but is a good blocker and has great hands out of the backfield. I think we've got our RB for a long time.
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Corey, the most impressive part of Forte's run this year has been that he has been doing it behind less than stellar blocking. Chicago's O line's run metrics are not terrible but they aren't anywhere near as good as, say, MIami's and yet Forte still gets his yards. That's the sign of a really good RB.
Corey is delusional if he thinks Forte is winning ROY over Ryan. RB is the easiest position to play as a rookie, QB the hardest.
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
As much as I like Forte, I do have to agree with Sam that Ryan is the rookie of the year. He's the best rookie QB I've seen in the six years I've been breaking down game tapes.
Wilks, little south of bushwood
I still think Derek Anderson can be a star in this league, am I crazy?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
Yes you are.
It would seem that Jerry Jones' natural instinct would be to sign Vick and Plax as soon as they become available. Will he be able to fight this instinct?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Jerry is like Al in that he likes to take on the tough cases, but he's stocked at both the QB and WR position and that will curb any desire he has to sign either of those two.
KC do you have any metrics on LT-David Diehl? I was just wondering whether he plays better as a OLT than he did as a OG.
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
I tallied the Giants run metrics around midseason and found that every one of their O linemen had superb POA win percentages. Diehl has also improved his pass blocking (he was a sack waiting to happen in 2007), so I'd say he is definitely a better OT than OG.
KC, what do your metrics say about the Chiefs rookie corners? How is the complete lack of pass rush taken into account when factoring the metrics?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Kyle, right now I have Brandon Flowers ranked as a red rated CB, so no metric adjustments need to be taken into account in his case. I'd also point out that Maurice Leggett is playing much better of late and that Carr looks like he could be a solid pro for a while. I'm saying it here first: The Chiefs will be the turnaround team of the 2009 season.
Can Clady take Peppers one on one this Sunday?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
That's going to be a fun one to watch, isn't it! Clady has shown dominant pass blocking skills but Peppers has a ton of one on one sacks and has beaten just about everyone he has faced. I'm thinking Clady is up to it for most of the plays but Peppers schools him for one sack.
Will Thigpen be their starter in 09?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Absolutely. I'd be shocked if it were otherwise.
Joe Flacco, Baltimore
Hey KC, got any pointers for me this week?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Just keeping doing as well on vertical passes as you have over the past seven weeks and you'll be fine. The Steelers can be beaten vertically if your O line holds up and I'm thinking they will often enough for Baltimore to win.
Peter - ATL
Wouldn't you argue that Abraham, Tuck, and Allen are all deserving over Peppers for the NFC DE spot in the Pro Bowl?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
Peter, Peppers has been possibly the best pass rusher in the league this year, so I couldn't take him out of the Pro Bowl. Tuck hasn't been nearly as good this year as he was last so I'd rank him last on your list.
What are the odds that ESPN hires Joey Porter to be an analyst after his football career? He seems to have an opinion on everything.
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
Opinionated and articulate ex-players are an ESPN staple but I'm thinking Porter won't be looking for a change of career for a couple of years at the least. Miami could be a Super Bowl contender by 2010 and he'll want to be there if/when that happens.
I'm the smartest football scientist alive! My responses are not biased at all...
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
Sure they are biased. The bias just happens to be the game tape and metric findings, that's all.
Watching Peppers line up on the left side and immediately get a sack has me thinking they should just let him line up wherever he wants and the other linemen adjust accordingly.
KC Joyner (5:03 PM)
That reminds me of the Packers when they used to move Reggie White around to get the best matchup and he'd dominate some poor soul. If that was the case this week, Peppers would be lining up in the middle of the D line, as the Broncos tackles are low percentage pass rush propositions. Well, dinner is just about ready so I'm going to sit down to eat. I hope to see you all next week!
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