Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Broad Street Brian (before the Company X-mas party)
KC! Happy holidays! Do you think that sacks are overrated when determining the Probowl? Trent Cole has been a beast all year but only has 9 sacks I feel like he was stubbed. He did have his way with Joe thomas too!
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
It's a funny thing with sacks. They might be overrated in one sense but I'd rather see a measurable metric being used than simply going by reputation and hype.
Avid reader,1st time poster really needs your help!Pick 3 of these WR'S in standard scoring league-Fitzgerald,Berrian,Santana Moss,Torry Holt,Anthony Gonzalez,Devone Bess.Also which QB-Hill or Favre?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
I'd definitely go with Fitz and probably go with Berrian. Of the others, I'd probably take a chance on Gonzalez. Give me Favre over Hill but know that he is a risk and Hill is the safer, if lower upside, choice.
J D Castlewood VA
Can the Redskins win the last two games of the season and how can they approve in 2009 than these season?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I don't think they'll beat the Eagles, so I'd say no to the first question. As to how they can improve, having a healthy O line and better WRs would sure help.
SprungOnSports (Long Island)
Great fantasy season, KC, hope to do it again next year. What's the big key for Baltimore-Dallas on Saturday night and who do you coming out on top?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
I had a lot of fun with the chat leagues so we'll definitely have to put together some more leagues next year. I think the big key in that game is if Dallas can take advantage of Flacco's mistakes. They have only eight picks this year and a 1.5% forced bad decision percentage, so they aren't very good at forcing mistakes and/or taking advantage of them when they happen.
Why didn't the Giants do anything on offense Sunday?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
First let's give some credit to Dallas. Second, the G-Men were a bit banged up. I'd expect a turnaround this week.
titans dont look too good right now, especialy without hanyesworth
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Their secondary sure looked suspect and its a key reason I have the Titans D as a possible sit this week in my Getting Defensive article. And losing Haynesworth is gargantuan. They have a good D without him but Albert dominates play in a way that no other under tackle can do. Plus he's been a beast at DE at times, which is just insane given his size. No one should be that big and that fast.
Lot of people think John Abraham was snubbed, but don't you think Peppers and Tuck would have more sacks too if all they did was rush the passer like Abraham?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
I had Abraham listed as an overrated player just after midseason but his performance in the second half (or at least in the ones he played in) made me change my mind a bit. Peppers had a very dominant year and Tuck is off of his 2007 pace.
Merry Christmas KC since you won't be here next week. Rank these tight ends Witten, Clark and Carlson based on opportunity for 65 yards and TD. Lots of chatter about who covers Johnson for Houston. Does Nnami... stay with him or Walter.
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
An early Merry Christmas to you as well! Tough call on those three, but I'd rate Witten first, Carlson second and Clark third. And I'd bet that Oakland doesn't move Nnamdi around. They haven't been moving him of late and I think that will continue. And, by the way, Johnson will have a very good game regardless of if they do.
Eric (Sioux City)
Abraham was not snubbed. A snub is when someone left out is more deserving than someone who got in. Peppers, Tuck, Allen, and Abraham were all deserving; but only 3 could go.
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Eric, I would have to respectfully disagree and say that Tuck over Abraham is something of a snub. Tuck hasn't had as good of a year as he did in 2007 and got in on reputation.
Yesterday Mortenson said that he was voting for Clady as his all-pro LT. Do you agree?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Absolutely. Clady plays in a vertically inclined offense and has shut down the pass rush corner in nearly every game he's played in. The Broncos could have their next Gary Zimmerman in Clady.
Aaron (Pierre, SD)
Tarvaris Jackson has been named the starter for the Vikings...like this pick?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Sure do. Going into the season I thought Jackson might have turned the corner to being a good starter. it didn't turn out that way but with the way he's playing now, that corner might once again be behind him. Play for the future and keep him in there as long as possible.
What was up with London Fletcher saying that his career is "Hall of Fame worthy?"
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
I saw that Fletcher had some things to say but I hadn't seen that quote. If he's Hall of Fame worthy, they'll need to do a big expansion to the building in Canton because there have to be at least 1,000 players with better credentials than Fletcher.
Cosmo (Anytown, USA)
Do you think McNabb is a Hall of Famer?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
I'd say right now McNabb will be viewed as the Sonny Jurgensen/Warren Moon of his generation in that he is a great QB who didn't win a title. He still might win that title (the Eagles are my darkhorse Super Bowl choice) but even if he doesn't, he's probably Canton bound at some point.
Who is your MVP and Coach of the Year?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
MVP has been a tough pick this year but I'm going with Brandon Jacobs. The Giants offense simply isn't the same when he isn't in there. COY is still an up in the air item for me, as I want to see how the season ends. Childress and Smith would be highest on my list right now but that could change.
KC, you've never been a big Ike Taylor fan and historically, the metrics you show on him seem to support your lack of support for him. I was curious what you thought about his play this year - he seems to be matching up week in and week out against the best receiver on the opposing team and not one of them has had a big day against him - even Reggie Wayne despite Ike tipping two balls to him. What do you think?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Ike Taylor is having maybe his best season. I've got him at a 7.4 YPA right now and that's about two yards better than he normally puts up.
With his Pro Bowl invite, Haynesworth has gained the right to be a UFA after the season. Will he be worth the contract he receives? He hasn't played a full season since his rookie year.
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
That last item would be a quandary with many players but Haynesworth's ability to dominate can't be overstated. He is one of the few DTs in the league who can shut down an offense by himself. And he was doing this well before he hit a contract year, so he's likely to continue that level of play after he lands the big money.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
KC: While I have great respect for what you have to say, I have to differ with you on the MVP. Do you think the Minnesota Vikings are 9-5 without A.P. on the field? I think he means more to the Vikings than Brandon Jacobs does to the G-Men. Much as I hate to say it, losing Plaxico Burress might have had a bigger effect on the Giants than losing Jacobs.
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
JB, I'll put it this way, I wouldn't mind a bit seeing AP win it. There simply isn't one player who stands out for that honor and Jacobs came to mind because of how the Giants have played without him.
Eric S (Saint Petersburg, FL)
Childress as COY?? Many people were calling for his head just a few weeks ago. Tony Sparano should be way above Childress in voting.
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Before you rule Childress out, consider this. If the Vikes win out, there is a chance they get a first round bye. They've also beaten Carolina this year and therefore could beat them in the later rounds of the playoffs. I'm not saying they'll make the Super Bowl but there is an outside chance that happens.
Paul (San Diego)
K.C. my man, What are your thoughts on the Giants extending Corey Webster, good move?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Great move if they get the 2008 Corey Webster for the duration of the contract. I'm not saying they won't but he's had the best season of his career this year when the money was on the line. I just want to see him play that way now that the contract has been signed.
wow, kurt warner disappeared from the mvp talk very fast
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
I thought about putting him in as MVP but decided against it because of the Cards recent performance. It's not entirely on him that the team is collapsing against good competition but it's not entirely off of his shoulders either.
Robert (Latrobe, PA)
How is Mike Tomlin not getting more support for COY? The Steelers had the toughest schedule in 20 year and lost a starting RG, first-round RB, and several key players for long stretches (Parker, Keisel, McFadden, Sepulveda). I know what Sparano and Smith have done is very impressive, but I can't understand why Tomlin's name is consistently left out of the discussion.
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Great point, Robert. Tomlin has done a fantastic job. People expect the Steelers to do well every year but taking over for Cowher is not something many could do as successfully as Tomlin has. If they beat Tennessee on Sunday, I'll bet he gets a lot more COY play in a hurry.
What about Michael "the burner" Turner for MVP? I doubt that Ryan has a good season without him.
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
Let's add a vote for Turner to the mix!
You all are crazy, althought I hate Bellicheat, Bellicheck HAS to be the coach of the year. What other coach could lose the leagues posterchild MVP and top 2 QB of his era and finds himself tied for 1st in week 16? Case closed.
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
On the flip side of that argument, what if the Pats don't make the playoffs? Hard to call him COY versus the other candidates if that happens.
Corey Webster got bench most of last year? he's not a top 15 corner, why would the Giants waste that money on him. 2 of his picks against the Cowboys were due to Brad Johnson being an idiot...TO beat him on that slant
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
That's exactly what I mean. He stepped up big time this year with a 4.4 YPA in the games I have broken down but that's well out of the range of what he had been doing before this.
Corey (Gary, Indiana)
Where would the Colts be without Peyton? He's for sure the MVP.
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Great point, Corey. How many QBs could pilot this team to 10 wins? I'd say not many.
KC, I am the only fan besides your brother that stayed loyal to the Fins last year... Ok I need to ask... How is big Jake Long doing compared to Clady... I have heard that Jake has only had help on roughly 5 plays all season and they even pull him... pulling a LT on running plays? Please give me some insight.
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
I think Majeed (a chat regular) could be added to your loyal fan list. As far as Long v Clady, Long has graded out in the 90-95% POA run block success rate this year but Clady has graded out better as a pass blocker (though Long has done well in that department as well). I can't quite say which one is the best because it depends on what you favor, run blocking or pass blocking.
11 wins with 14 players on IR? Its Belichick.
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
True, but Smith has won with a rookie QB and Childress with Gus Frerotte. Plus Sparano has just as many wins and he did it with a team that won one game last year. Not knocking the Belichick pick, just saying its a crowded field.
Randy Moss was the only receiver this year to consistently burn Nnamdi, does this show that he's still the best receiver in the game?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Let me wait until after Andre Johnson faces Nnamdi to answer that question. I respect Nnamdi a ton but I think Johnson could do just as much against him as Moss did.
Explain to me how the Miami Dolphins went from worst to first with basically the same team as last year(besides Jake Long and Chad Pennington)? I think their new HeadCoach and his style of coaching has really toughened this team up! Tony Sparano should be the Coach of the year!
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
The place to start is the injury report. The Fins almost never have anyone on that report. They are like what the Cowboys were under Parcells, so give a lot of credit to the strength and conditioning staff.
bwest for mvp, if only he wasn't hurt so much...
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
kl, you are one of many posters who have pitched Westbrook for that. Hard to give him that with the injuries but if ever he was going to win it, this would be a year to do it.
John (Fort Myers)
Childress? Maybe the dumbest thing you've ever said in a chat. I really enjoy your stuff, so we'll call it a mulligan and move on.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Look, I know it sounds nuts, but tell me this: at what point do you get on the Childress bandwagon? All he's done is take this team a lot farther with a backup QB than anyone thought he could. I'm not saying he's going to be the next HOF coach or anything like that but let's give him his 2008 due.
Of course, we only have one person to thank for this tight MVP race, so let's just give it to Bernard Pollard. (Too soon? Sorry)
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Don't forget the Fins don't have Jason Taylor because he got his wish to play for a playoff team....oh wait, that didn't work out so well for him.
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
I said in Scientific Football 2008 that I wondered if a scheme/athletic coach like Zorn was going to be able to connect with a personnel/hitter team like Gibbs had built. It looked like he was doing it for a while there but now the worm has turned.
How will small market teams ever compete with metropolitan cities in free agency biding given the economic downturn the country is experiencing?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
Steiny, one of the items I covered in Blindsided (which is a great stocking stuffer/Christmas present!) is how the league's socialist rules prevent competition. The only benefit of them is that they do allow the Green Bay's of the world to keep up with the NYs (see Reggie White). I'd also point out my NY Times post this week that shows the NFL has done well in all of the previous recessions and should do well again in this one.
The NFL should really do away with the salary cap.
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I'm not so much for that as I am having the league award part of their team distributed revenues on a competitive basis. The Lions are in a fairly large market but for years they haven't been as much of a TV draw as the Packers, so why should they get the same amount of TV revenue?
Mike (San Diego)
I know that you have had mixed feelings on Phillip Rivers in the past. After factoring in this season, is he ready to lead a more pass-oriented Chargers offense in the future?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
It's funny on Rivers because even though the Chargers are having their worst season under him, I think he's had the best season of his career this year. And I'd say that if things bounce their way and SD does win the AFC West, Rivers should be the MVP hands down (I can't believe I just wrote that!).
I dont' care who the QB is in Minny; they have the leagues best RB, and two of the top 7 DT's in the game, a top 10 DE, and a Top 5 Oline. Why were they picked to contend for a title? Childress salvaged the season, sure, but COY - wow KC.
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
Man, I cannot believe the Childress backlash here. If the Vikes win their last two, it's an 11 win season. That's impressive even if you have a stacked lineup, especially if you do it with Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson as your QBs. They don't have the 11 wins yet, so I wouldn't give him the title just yet, but let's not knock him too much for winning games.
KC if you need a corner to shut down an opposing WR, which 2 corners do you take. Newman and Nnamdi?
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
Based on this year's metrics, I'd take Nnamdi and Antoine Winfield.
KC - Let me slide in under the wire for some championship game advice since you accidentally forgot me for your chat leagues this year! Who to play at WR, pick 1: Branch, T.O., or Holt. Thanks!
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
Glad to help (and I'll be sure to get you in the chat leagues next year!). Branch and Holt have tough matchups and there is a good chance Owens could get matched up against someone other than Rolle (who is having a great year). I'd go Owens.
Matt (Buffalo, NY)
Leodis McKevlin has been great on kick returns. Any metrics on his defensive play?
KC Joyner (5:04 PM)
I've got him with a 7.5 YPA but it's been getting better by the week. He'll be the long-term starter there. Well, it's time for me to fly. There won't be a chat next week due to Christmas so I'll see you sometime the week after that!