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Rob Neyer

  (12:02 PM)

Thanks to the wonders of WiFi, I'm coming to you from the snowy coast of Oregon . . . I left something out of my analysis (above) . . . Big no-prize to whoever notices . . .

Glen L (NYC)

Something worth mentioning re: petco's "index" .. part of that 80 index is that the padres hitters play in every game at petco .. that alone will depress offensive stats

Rob Neyer

  (12:04 PM)

Umm, no. Not really. I tried to explain this briefly, but then I've been trying to explain this for 13 years and it never quite comes across. Because we look at ALL runs scored in ALL games -- the Padres and their opponents, in Petco Park and away from Petco -- it really doesn't matter a great deal how good the Padres hitters are. It might matter a little bit what *kind* of hitters they are. But when you look at the whole team over the course of three seasons, you get a real good read on the ballpark.

Jerry (Dekalb IL)

While he'd probably want some sort of extension/new contract, isn't he a bit less of a risk than say, Sabathia or Lowe? These ought to be the best couple years of his career, and he's not going to be a one year rental. He's a guy you can plug in at the top and lean on, no matter what team he winds up with.

Rob Neyer

  (12:05 PM)

I think that's right, that he is a bit less risky than those other guys. He probably doesn't have the upside of Sabathia, but doesn't have the downside (or backside), either.

John (Chicago)

My question is kind of the opposite: what hitters on the Padres are underrated due to their park and would be very good, great, or outstanding in other parks?

Rob Neyer

  (12:08 PM)

A bit off-topic -- and we'll be switching topics in about 20 minutes -- but Brian Giles is much better than his raw numbers might suggest.

Dan (Boston, MA)

Because of his division, Peavy pitches a bunch of his road games at Chase Field and Coors Field, though, right? And the Dodgers and Giants don't play in particularly strong pitcher's parks. So his road ERA is probably inflated.

Rob Neyer

  (12:09 PM)

That's true to some extent, Dan. Though it's easy to overestimate the effects, as the Padres do play a fair number of games outside the division.

Glen L (NYC)

Aside from a flukey 2007, Peavy's HR/Fly ball rate averaged over 12%, while playing all his home games in SD ... if he moves to a smaller park his HR rate could become problematic ... otherwise his k/9 and bb/9 have stayed relatively constant and he seems to have a knack for leaving guys on base that hasn't fluctuated much .. his HR rate is the only thing that would scare me

Rob Neyer

  (12:11 PM)

Exactly; this is the piece of analysis that I left out earlier. And even more specifically, Petco is absolute death on left-handed power hitters, which must have helped Peavy quite a bit over the years. If I had Peavy, it's the home runs that might worry me just a bit.

TeeJeigh

In 2007, Peavy's home ERA was 2.51. His road ERA was 2.57. While career numbers are more statistically reliable, both the 2007 stats and the career stats demonstrate that 2008's disparity is something of an aberration. Peavy is quite capable, in other words, of dominating in other parks for long stretches of time. If we look back at 2006, we see a 3.75/4.57 gap. However, if we look at 2005, we see a 2.81/2.98. Season by season, his road performance fluctuates fairly drastically, from stellar to middling. I'm saying, it's not as if Peavy has constant difficulty matching his home production on the road. For entire seasons, he's been totally dominant on the road too. To determine why this might be the case, other statistical factors need to enter into our analysis. Any ideas on this inconsistency?

Rob Neyer

  (12:13 PM)

I suspect it's just a sample-size issue, TeeJeigh. And if he weren't being helped by Petco, there would be a season in which he was actually *better* in road games. Which hasn't happened.

Dale (Canada)

Wouldn't the type of pitcher make the biggest difference in how much his ERA changes? Like sinkerballers would be affected much less by a smaller park than those that give up lots of fly ball outs.

Rob Neyer

  (12:14 PM)

Yes. That's definitely a few important pieces in the puzzle.

Noah (San Francisco)

What are your thoughts as to why Peavy has such up and down years? Great in 2005 horrible in 2006 good in 2007. Whats up with that?

Rob Neyer

  (12:15 PM)

Noah, in 2006 he was just terribly unlucky. His strikeouts and walks were fine, as usual. He just gave up a few extra homers, and a few extra hits fell in. I don't have to time to check, but I wouldn't be surprised if his bullpen let him down, too...

JT (Chicago)

The most heard about landing spot for Jake is the Cubs, and you said Petco has a rating of 80, what is Wrigley's rating? I know for a fact that the wind blows in more than out, so do you think his numbers change that much with a move to the NorthSide? I don't.

Rob Neyer

  (12:19 PM)

I don't know about the wind -- I think you're right some years, not so right others -- but the fact is that over the last three seasons Wrigley has been the fourth best park for hitters in the National League, and correspondingly favorable for power hitters specifically. So Wrigley might not be the absolutely bestest place for young Jacob.

Randy (Nashville, TN)

Didn't really mention Peavy's elbow issues and how Padres feel he will tear ligaments soon. Obviously that factors in as well. Bottom line, Towers was asking for too much from a position of no leverage.

Rob Neyer

  (12:22 PM)

Good point, Randy. I don't have any inside information about Peavy's elbow (or any other part of his body). But you do have to wonder why the Padres would be so eager to trade a star pitcher who's signed for the next four years at reasonable $. Reminds me a little bit of the A's eagerness to trade Harden...

Mike(Irvine, CA)

Why is Jake so fixated on playing in the NL? Hitting can't be THAT exciting for him, can it? Is it that he believes he's pitching for his next contract(at 33) and wants to face easier lineups than he might face in the AL? I'm an Angels fan and would love to have him and can't quite figure out his motivation for avoiding the AL.

Rob Neyer

  (12:24 PM)

Could be that, or it could be simply that he's comfortable where he is, doesn't want to learn new ballparks and new opposing hitters, etc. Though this would obviously seem like a smaller thing in the days of interleague play.

Joe (Iowa)

Is it possible it's just a psychological issue and he's more comfortable with a home routine wherever that home may be? His K/BB was much better at home last year, which doesn't seem explainable by Petco's immense power alleys.

Rob Neyer

  (12:26 PM)

Sure, anything's possible. But don't you think that strikeouts are prone to park effects, too? Different ballparks have different lighting, different hitter's backgrounds, etc. And in fact, the numbers say Petco inflates strikeouts by 10 percent...

Dave (Birmingham, AL)

This is really an eye-opener! I did not realize that Petco really turned so many mediocre pitchers into gold. Looking at 3 of the Padres' top starters (Peavy, Maddux, and Wolf) and their best bullpen man (Bell), the home/road splits are truly mind-boggling. At home that foursome, respectively, had ERAs of 1.74, 2.62, 3.17, and 2.33, with WHIPs of 0.97, 0.98, 1.26, and 0.93. On the road, they all completely melted down with ERAs of 4.28, 5.75, 6.63, and 4.81 and WHIPs of 1.45, 1.53, 1.62, and 1.47. Not only is Peavy completely a product of Petco, but all of their pitchers are. This would make me highly skeptical of acquiring any Padres' pitchers. It appears the Cubs have made a wise decision in not too heavily pursuing Peavy, who would become just an average pitcher at best once inside the "Friendly Confines".

Rob Neyer

  (12:29 PM)

I think that overstates the case just a little, Dave. Peavy's probably going to be a good pitcher wherever he lands. But the question is how good. And what you have to pay him to be good. And how much you have to give up to get him. I think the fact that Peavy's still a Padre tells us something about how he's perceived by the other teams.

Isaac (NYC)

Well Robby, I think it's clear the ability that Peavy has. You don't just strike that many hitters out without the raw stuff to do it. He may be aided by Petco, but not to the extent where he would be ineffective elsewhere. Though I don't have the numbers handy, pitchers fare much better in home parks in general. The overall home-road split is fairly significant and something to consider. Therefore, Peavy is not a product of Petco.

Rob Neyer

  (12:32 PM)

A.J. Burnett strikes out a lot of hitters, too. Doesn't make him a great pitcher. I think the bottom line is that while Peavy himself is not a product of his home ballpark, to some degree his outstanding numbers are. And if he winds up in the American League, I don't expect him to be a Cy Young candidate with any frequency. But of course he doesn't have to be, to justify his salary.New topic?

Dan (Chicago)

Relating to Isaac's question about normal home and road splits...2008 saw a huge favor for teams playing at home (more than statistically average). Do you think the ban on amphetamines had anything to do with this?

Rob Neyer

  (12:34 PM)

But the ban (and testing) began in 2007, right? There were all these dire warning about greenie-free baseball before that season, and then . . . nothing happened. Or seemed to happen. So I'm leery about such theories.

Michael (Syracuse)

Okay, we talked the Petco talk on Peavey -- how about its affect on young hitters? Will they ever be able to develop young hitters in such a repressive environment?

Rob Neyer

  (12:35 PM)

Well, I would say whatever you lose in young hitters you gain in young pitchers . . . except the Padres really haven't developed any young pitchers, with the exception of Peavy. Generally, I think the best park is a pitcher's park, but the Padres have taken this too far. Eventually they'll do something about it.

Rob (DC)

Just to throw in a second name to Giles, I think Adrian Gonzaelz would be (well is, but raw numbers would be better) one of the 5 best hitter in the NL in another park, shame he may never get the credit he deserves.

Rob Neyer

  (12:37 PM)

Yeah, that's right. Gonzalez's career slugging percentage is more than 100 points higher on the road than at home ... and remember, players have a "natural" home-field advantage, so Gonzalez has been hurt by his home park even more than you might think.

Pat (Berkley, MA)

Rob, do you agree with Bill James' notion that having a pitcher friendly park is better for the long term success of a team? I'm sure you know his reasoning, but his claim is that this allows young pitchers to settle in and grow confidence and that young hitters require less confidence building.

Rob Neyer

  (12:38 PM)

I do agree with Professor James about this. But again, the Padres may have taken this too far.

Dan (South Africa)

Hey Rob,Whats going on with Tex, are we gonna see some action this week. If he and Smoltz are added to the Red Sox, do they become the best team in the division, or would they need another veteran starter signing like Derek Lowe?

Rob Neyer

  (12:40 PM)

I believe he winds up with the Red Sox or the Angels. I just can't figure out what happens to Mike Lowell if it's the Red Sox. And I think the Sox are the best team in the division already.

Pat (Berkley, MA)

Do you think that pitcher friendly parks, although potentially good for success *on the field* may be bad for success financially? Chicks dig the long ball.

Rob Neyer

  (12:42 PM)

I don't know, Pat. Didn't seem to hurt the Dodgers much in the '60s. The only thing that really matters is winning, and most of the rest is just details.

Daniel (SD, CA)

Hey Rob - do you like the Rays chances to get back to the Series if they sign Milton Bradley? A veteran bat could help them get over the hump, and I think Bradley would be happy there, at least for one year.

Rob Neyer

  (12:45 PM)

I they'll have plenty of competition for that slot in the World Series no matter who they add this winter. But yeah, upgrading at DH is probably their best bet.

Mark (Boston)

Rob, are there any pitcher friendly parks in the AL?

Rob Neyer

  (12:47 PM)

Sure. The Mariners and Athletics somewhat famously play in pitcher's parks. And the Metrodome has played as a pitcher's park over the last few seasons, which seems odd but maybe isn't.

nick (albuquerque, nm)

I would think that the Tigers stadium would be pitcher friendly

Rob Neyer

  (12:47 PM)

It really was initially, but not so much since they pulled the fences in some.

Dan S. (Boston)

You and the rest of the Bill James Youth are ruining the game for the rest of us with your statistics that try to keep poor ol' Jim Ed out of the Hall of Fame! Other than that, are we still exchanging Christmas cards this year?

Rob Neyer

  (12:49 PM)

You keep saying I'm youthful and I'll keep sending the cards...

Aaron B. (Novato, Calif.)

According to the guys at Lookout Landing (an M's blog who looked carefully at the issue), Safeco is actually not bad for lefty batters.

Rob Neyer

  (12:52 PM)

All I can tell you at this moment is that Safeco has played roughly the same over the last three seasons for both handednesses.

Evan (Milwaukee, WI)

I know I'm more or less alone on this, but doesn't this conversation raise the question of "why aren't baseball fields uniform?" I'm a Red Sox fan and love tradition as much as anyone, but I think the disparity in ballpark dimensions creates an un-level playing field. A mediocre pitcher might be great at Petco while a good hitter (Giles, for instance) sees his numbers suffer. I think a HR should be a HR everywhere, a hit should be a hit everywehre. I say: make all baseball fields the same.

Rob Neyer

  (12:53 PM)

I think if baseball was just invented tomorrow, the inventors would decree that all parks have the same dimensions, outfield area, etc. But I'm glad that isn't going to happen, because that would give us one less thing to talk about.

Jeff (Alexandria, VA)

Do teams need MLB approval to change the outfield walls, or can they do just about anything they want? (Could a team move a wall back when playing against a team with a lot of RH power hitters, or move the walls in when their ground ball pitcher is on the mound, etc?)

Rob Neyer

  (12:55 PM)

You can't move fences during the season, though I believe Bill Veeck did it when he ran the Indians or the White Sox (so they passed a rule prohibiting the practice). There are rules about minimum distances, but even those can be waived by the Commissioner (and have been). You just have to wait until the season's over.

Rob (Shawnee, KS)

Rob, do you see the Yankees really trying to sign Texieria or Manny? I think that is dumb especially after shelling out so much money for pitchers

Rob Neyer

  (12:56 PM)

I think they're going to add a hitter. I just don't know which one, though I suppose they could go with defense in center field and call it good. Right now they're a 95-win team on paper.

Will (Canton, NY)

If Peavy were to be moved to an AL (I know it probably wouldnt happen) team such as Boston or even New York what would you guess his stats would be for his first AL season? How would he figure into an AL rotation, still ace material or just a solid 2/3 starter?

Rob Neyer

  (12:58 PM)

I would expect an ERA somewhere around 4, give or take half a run. As for whether he's an ace or a 2/3, of course that depends on who else is in the rotation.

Mike (Boston, MA)

Could the AL east be the best division in history this season?

Rob Neyer

  (1:00 PM)

Anything's possible, but check out the AL East in the late '70s (granted, they were all picking on the Blue Jays then). Thanks for the questions today. I hope we're all just a little bit closer to True Enlightenment...