ESPN

Brendan Roberts

  (3:02 PM)

Hello, everyone. Thanks for stopping by. Please note I have changed over to baseball, and will try to stick to that. We have a fairly regimented chat schedule.

Gray (Chicago)

Jason Kubel or Nelson Cruz?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:02 PM)

Ready for this? Kubel. But it has more to do that I don't believe in Cruz than I do believe in Kubel. He should be good for a decent HR total, though.

You'll Just Forget it Anyways

In a head 2 head points keeper league would you trust John Lackey as your ace? Followed by Shields, Billingsley, Ervin Santana? Also, would you trust the same rotation without Lackey if it means you draft Josh Hamilton instead?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:04 PM)

Hmm, not sure Lackey is really an ace there, but it doesn't matter in your case because you have decent depth behind him. I'd hate to leave it Lackey-free, but if the opportunitiy comes in which you can get Hamilton for him, you do it, then worry about trading the Hamilton-created excess to replace Lackey.

Dino (Frisco, CA)

Will ESPN have a keeper ranking soon?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:05 PM)

Hmm, not sure. But I do know Tristan Cockcroft did a fine keeper ranking near the end of last season that would probably still apply. Lemme see if I can find it.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:06 PM)

Here tis: http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?id=3525205

Goose (Chicago)

When will ESPN provide projections for those of us in points leagues?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:07 PM)

We'll have a big launch coinciding with our draft kit right around Feb. 1. Should be close to the whole shebang. We're meeting all this month to hash out these rankings, projections and such.

John

What's your projections for Stephen Drew and Max Scherzer for 2009?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:09 PM)

Oh wow, haven't really laid them out yet, but I see something like a .295-25-79 season for Drew (a slight step up from last season) and a young-stud line for Scherzer as a SP. Probably close to a K per inning in 180-185 innings, a moderate WHIP and a pretty good ERA. In other words, I really like him.

John Florian (Los Angeles, CA)

Hey I've heard Utley is out for a couple months and that he isn't. Would he be a great target for a sleeper here? Most people may have him out longer then he should be. What's the latest?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:11 PM)

Ah, the Chase Utley thing. Here's my take. The docs said he'd be out 4-6 months, putting him out into May, and the only person who has refuted that is Utley himself, which is never safe. He says he can make it back by Opening Day, but it seems players' comments like that aren't reliable, and I don't trust it here. I'd bet he's not ready for Opening Day, but probably sometime by late-April. Now ...

Brendan Roberts

  (3:13 PM)

... if that allows you to get him for "sleeper status," then great! He'll miss only 3-4 weeks if that's the case. But from what I'm seeing, he's still being valued and picked (in most drafts) very highly, as if he were available on Opening Day, so my guess is that public perception might keep you from getting him at a "sleeper" level. Hope that all makes sense.

Zack (Salem, OR)

With Randy leaving the D-Backs it leaves a rotation spot open. Do you think Max Sherzer will breakout this season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:13 PM)

Yes I do. Don't look for a sterling WHIP -- or wins, for that matter, since the D-backs might be conservative with his innings. But plenty of K's and a good WHIP should be in order.

Kyle (Chicago)

If you had first pick of all MLB draftees from 2008, do you take Pedro Alvarez or Justin Smoak?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:14 PM)

Good question, Kyle. I really love Justin Smoak. Well, his offense anyway. But you just happened to pick maybe the one guy I think has more upside, and more immediate upside, than Smoak. It's Alvarez to me.

Josh (phx)

Keeper question...16 team points H2H league, 8 keepers. Unless it is changed, starting pitchers scored about 1.5 times on average more than hitters, there were about 50 pitchers with more points than the top hitter. We play postion specific. With this info, who stays on my team: (hitters) I. Stewart, A Gordon, M Holiday, C Hart, J Bruce, N Markakis, (pitchers) B Webb, C Lee, R Harden, M Scherzer, D Price or Y Gallardo? I'm thinking Holidaym, Bruce and Markakis, then the pitchers, with the exception of Harden (injury issues).

Brendan Roberts

  (3:16 PM)

All looks good, except I'd find a way to keep Harden. He didn't have many injuries last year, and he was lights-out. At best, Gallardo could do this season what Harden already has done, if that makes sense. I understand keeping youth, but I think you'll have a lot tougher time getting Harden back than someone like Gallardo or Scherzer. I'd call Gallardo the odd man out, for what it's worth.

Arnie (Weston, MA)

Please choose one - Scherzer or Josh Johnson

Brendan Roberts

  (3:17 PM)

Scherzer. Still not sold on Johnson, and not sure he can get the Ws going forward to make up for the K's difference.

Adam Widebrook (Branson, Missouri)

What kind of impact do you think Milton Bradley is going to have on the Cubs! Having a switch hitter in the line up will be great, but do you think it will be enough to replace DeRosa?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:19 PM)

Strictly from a baseball perspective, I don't like it for them. Bradley has a devisive personality, and now he'll be playing for Lou Piniella. He has played more than 130 games in a season just once in his career, and the Cubs just made him their biggest offseason acquisition. I just don't like how I think this will turn out. As for his fantasy value, no way he does what he did last season, but with the Cubs at least he can come close.

Paul T. (Cincinnati)

I'm debating on keeping Yovani Gallardo but his injury last year has me scared. Would you rather keep him and his upside or go with someone else like James Shields? What do you see out of those two?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:20 PM)

Shields (finally) sold me last season. Of course, now that we know what the Rays can do and the harness is off the young hurler, we can be sure Shields can get Ws. I also like the way the Rays look defensively (at least if Burrell doesn't play out there). Yeah, I'd take Shields, the more proven commodity. Gallardo COULD be good, but his value is low because of his injury.

Paul (Seattle)

I had pegged Jason Motte as a big time saves sleeper in St Louis....would LaRussa really go with Carpenter over Perez and Motte?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:22 PM)

No, I don't think so, but the Carpenter toss was just a means to an end. Between that and trying to sign Fuentes and being rumored for Trevor Hoffman, it's obvious the Cardinals don't feel safe with Motte (or Perez) as their 2009 closer. If it's not Carpenter, it'll be someone else they bring in. And I really can't disagree with their thinking; I don't think he's ready either.

Mark (Boston, MA)

A lot of Scherzer action today---let me change the topic to another young hurler: Clay Buchholz. Future stud, or dud?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:23 PM)

Oh, good question, Mark. Were I to pick one, I'd say future stud. But not in 2009. I think he settles in and has some nice starts and stays at the back end of the rotation (unless they get Smoltz or something). But I do fear those 1 2/3 inning, 7-run outings from him. The kid still lets the wheels fall off way too easily, and only maturity and experience will help that.

Paul T. (Cincinnati)

Does David Ortiz's age and injuries make him the odd man out of my keeper list? I can keep 4 - David Wright and Grady Sizemore are locks. The other 3 choices are Quentin, Ortiz, and Nick Markakis. I'm worried about Quentin being a 1-year wonder.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:25 PM)

Yup, it's between Quentin and Ortiz. And I'd also say Carlos. Yeah, he could be a 1-year wonder, but he was too good in every split not to be at least close to what he was last season. I think he's just the right man, in the right lineup, at the right ballpark. Papi isn't as old as you think, but not having position eligibility hurts, as does his decline in power, which I think is for real. I'm with you on these picks.

Adam (NYC)

Simple question - Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Howard?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:26 PM)

Cabrera. Once he adjusted to AL pitching, he was a four-category stud. Howard gets HRs and RBIs, but his average might actually hurt you in mixed leagues.

David (Kingwood, TX)

Which Upton brother will have a better season next year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:28 PM)

B.J. Not sure the power will return (altough double-figures homers is very foreseeable), but those 44 steals and what should be decent runs (thanks to a .380s-.390s OBP) lock him as the favorite Upton Virginia boy.

Dave (Los Angeles, CA)

T Tulowitzky: i have him begged as a major bounce back...what do you think he he does in 09?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:30 PM)

I don't know if I'd call it major, but I do think he'll return to being a solid mixed-league SS in 2009. And cause he was so bad in 2008, he should be gotten from the middle rounds. I'm not sure he's ready to hit 30 homers, but I think a solid average and lot of RBIs and runs is attainable. Almost a lesser version of teammate Garrett Atkins.

Terrell, Cedar Rapids, IA

do you expect the Giants to sign a decent infield free agent besides Edgar. JOE CREDE? What about Manny for the outfield?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:31 PM)

They're supposedly "secretly" pursuing Manny, but I don't see it happening. Were I to guess right now, I say Manny ends up back in LA. Just a guess, though. Anyway, yeah, the Giants are still seeking a 3B, and they're talking to Crede. Not sure how that would work out, though. They still need more help.

Matt (East Hartford via Albany)

What does the Teixeira addition do to some of the other Yankees (bump up, bump down)?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:33 PM)

Well, bumps them up maybe a bit, but the team does lose Bobby Abreu (most likely) who offered at least similar lineup protection, so don't go thinking the mighty Bombers are back just yet. But yes, Teixeira helps all-around.

Steve (St Paul)

Do you see BJ Upton's performance coming closer to last season or post-season's output? Do you see Carols Quentin maintaining or will he hit the "Sophomore slump?"

Brendan Roberts

  (3:34 PM)

Going back on these guys, I think Upton will have a similar 2009 to what he had in '08. He's super-lanky, and the power was a surprise. Once he reigned it in, he lost some pop. And Quentin will take a step back, but not much.

John Florian (Los Angeles, CA)

Should we draft Cameron Maybin with the intentions of him playing the whole year or only part of it. What do you think?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:36 PM)

Everything I'm hearing is that Maybin will play all season. In fact, Fredi Gonzalez was reportedly talking lineups with a daily newspaper recently, and slated Hanley in the third hole. which the reporter took to mean Maybin likely will hit leadoff. Early speculation, but I think Maybin stays.

Luke(Dallas)

McCann or Mauer?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:36 PM)

McCann, by a nose.

Luke(Dallas)

Can Ludwick duplicate his numbers from 08?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:38 PM)

My gut says he's can't, but then again, I saw a whole lot of impressive ABs from the kid the last few seasons. Still, I think righties will eventually figure him out; he has a few holes against them. So I think he takes a sizable step back from last season. Not a bust, mind you, but not near as dominant as he was last season.

Nate(Boston)

Whats with the Edwin Encarnacion lovefest every year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:41 PM)

I'm probably in that love triangle. I just see certain at-bats or stretch of at-bats from E-Encarn that suggests the kid is an All-Star-capable player. And he turns 26 this month, so he's still approaching his prime years. He hit 26 homers last season, and he's in a favorable ballpark. I understand he's very slump-prone and doesn't have great plate discipline, the latter of which probably lowers his ceiling. But how can you NOT kinda like this guy going forward, given his age, ballpark and experience?

David (Houston, TX)

Any word on the injuries of Hafner and Victor Martinez...what can we expect from them next year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:42 PM)

I was just looking for info on those guys today. Didn't find much on V-Mart, but haven't read anything that suggested he won't be fine in 2009. Whether, or how much, he'll catch is another story. Meanwhile, I read recently Hafner's shoulder is just about "100 percent" again. That's hard for me to believe, but I must admit it gave me this little flutter in my belly as I envisioned getting him in the late rounds.

John Florian (Los Angeles, CA)

Does the cuban 3B the White Sox signed steal time from Fields? If so how good could this guy be?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:45 PM)

Another good question, John. Yes, he's pretty good, and the Sox will give him a chance to play right away. The kid's name is Dayan Viciedo. All that said, I don't think he's ready to produce. This reminds me a lot of the Kendry Morales situation a few years ago. The Angels were filled in his playing spots (the Sox aren't), so they sent him to the minors and then realized he wasn't ready anyway. I think the Sox might realize the same.

Anthony (Cali)

Do i go A-Rod, Pujlos, or HanRam with the #1 overall pick?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:45 PM)

I'm a big Han-Ram guy myself, if for no other reason than he's elite, and he's a shortstop.

Phil (Grand Rapids, MI)

Will Billy Butler play 1B for the Royals this year? Also, what is a more realistic stat line for him...15 hr and 75 RBI or 25 hr and 95 RBI?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:47 PM)

He's in line to play, but I'm worried about Teahen taking PT away. As it is, Mark Teahen is the odd man out for the Royals, and I don't think it stays that way. I greatly fear Butler could be turned into a "versus LHPs" platoon guy, thanks in no small part to his .290 OBP against righties last season (in almost 300 ABs). Thus, I don't see anything near those projections for Billy Butler.

Bob (GA)

Is Nolasco the real deal or too much injury risk?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:49 PM)

I don't know if he's an injury risk or not, but I don't see him as the real deal yet. You can say what you want about the new pitches he has developed, but I still don't see dominant major league stuff. I don't count on him as anything more than a No. 5 mixed-league starter.

The Mayor of Parraville (Parraville, PA)

what does 09 MLB baseball season hold for Manny Parra?extra credit: how many dingers will J. Upton hit this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:51 PM)

I like Parra, but I still think he walks too many guys to post a low WHIP. Maybe a 1.39 WHIP, at best. He's also young still and tends to get rattled, especially early in games. The K's will be nice, and maybe a 4.00 ERA, but I think he fits right in with that growing tier of high-upside young pitchers such as Jonathan Sanchez.

Paul T. (Cincinnati)

Is Verlander in line for a bounceback season? I grabbed him late with the idea of possibly keeping him.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:53 PM)

Who knows. Hate to be wishy-washy, but nobody really could put a figure on why he struggled so much last season. I mean, he did have a slight drop in velocity, but it was still pretty good, and he was healthy. I'd be careful not to count on a bounce-back. The fact that we couldn't explain his struggles make him a risk.

Steiny (NYC)

Should Francisco Rodriguez be first closer drafted in almost every league this season.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:53 PM)

If so, that would be overrating his saves. I think Papelbon is still my top-ranked closer.

San Fran

30 Hr's for Chris Davis?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:54 PM)

Yeah, somewhere about there. I had to bypass someone before asking whether they keep him for $8 or some stud at $21 ... now that I think about it, Davis is a bargain at that price.

John Florian (Los Angeles, CA)

Alfonso Soriano. Do we draft him late first round or do we let him slide to the 2nd because most people won't aknowledge his 1st round production?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:55 PM)

The disappointing first half of last season probably allows you to get him in the second round. I for one still like him, though.

Cory(DC)

Most likely to quit sucking: Weeks, Kendrick or Gordon?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:57 PM)

Well put, Cory. My bet would be Kendrick. He's way too good a hitter to be hitting LESS than .330. Seriously, when his hands are healthy, he could lead the league in hitting. Gordon would be next, although I think his struggles vs. LHPs might just be career-defining. And Weeks -- pshah! Never liked that guy or saw anything from him to suggest stardom or even regular MLB playing time. Maybe harsh, but the guys is SO overrated.

Sam (Chester, PA)

That was me. Thanks for answering - but why did you have to bypass me?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:58 PM)

Cause I get so many good questions, Sam. I usually look at 2-3 and then pick the one that requires the most thought and helps more people. That make sense? Hopefully so.

Bob (Atlanta)

Will Matt Cain be able to put it together in 2009?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:00 PM)

I don't think so. His WHIP actually went up last season, and some sabermatricians are worried that he's been trying to carry his team on his back the past three seasons and taking on high pitch counts of late in the process. I mean, he threw 217 innings last season, and he's not exactly an efficient (in terms of pitch count) pitcher. That actually makes me worry a bit that he might lose some of his stuff. I think he's in line to a season similar to the one he had in 2008. OK, guys, one more. Just FLEW by today.

Jeremy Bonderman

What about me? Any value this season?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:03 PM)

Obviously there's upside here, but I might be a bit too harsh, but I think Bonderman is done in terms of having the potential everyone says he could have. The Tigers just burned him out too much when he was younger, and I could even see (at worst-case scenario) a Kerry Wood-like cycle coming forward. But hey, if that means he's a good closer down the road, then so be it. The greater point is maybe late-round sleeper, but not anybody I'd count on.

Brendan Roberts

  (4:03 PM)

Like I said, this chat flew by more than any in recent memory. That's cause the questions were fantastic! Nice job, everyone. Already looking forward to next week's. Be well!