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Brendan Roberts

  (2:59 PM)

Good afternoon, everyone! Baseball season creeps ever closer. Let's jump right to the baseball questions.

Pete (D.C.)

Is Clay Buchholz still a hot prospect? Seems like the answer is YES in real life and NO in fantasy keeper leagues. WHY??

Brendan Roberts

  (3:01 PM)

That's correct -- in both cases. Why? Because the Red Sox are in no hurry with him because they have depth, esp, in their rotation. It's like a fantasy league in which you are loaded at SP (among other positions) and can just keep him on a taxi squad without detriment. Most fantasy leagues don't allow that; they have to go for it this year. And unfortunately, I just don't see him turning it around this season. He was a basket case last season, and he lost confidence in ALL of his pitches. It'll take him awhile to turn it around, maybe at sometime in 2010.

Steve Dallas, Texas

Lackey or Beckett?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:02 PM)

I'd have to say Lackey, just my shear performance, although Beckett could win a game or two more.

Nick (dreary England)

Bless you for an offseason baseball chat Brendan! I'm after some help with keepers. I'm in a 10x10 dynasty league and am trying to choose which 2 batters to keep out of Rios, Hart, and Bruce. I'm leaning towards cutting Hart considering the potential Bruce showed as a rookie. I also need to pick 3 pitchers to keep out the question mark group of Harden, Bedard, Young, Danks, Baker, and Myers. Thanks a bunch!!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:04 PM)

Hi, Nick. Good to hear from across the pond! Yup, I'd cut Hart. I still like him, but his draft value is down right now, so you'd have a better chance of getting him back. The pitchers are tough. Chris Young, I'm assuming. But I'd go for broke and keep Harden, Baker and Danks. Their 2008 performances make them the most valuable. Like I said, view keepers as the first of a draft.

John (NY)

I miss baseball. Simple keeper question: Kershaw or Price. I can keep until 2011 but have to pull the trigger soon. Thanks!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:05 PM)

Ugh. Tough one, but I'm off the mind Price establishes himself right away THIS season. And he, of course, has slightly more upside. He's the bigger risk over the next three seasons, but I'd still say Price.

George

ichiro or kemp?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:05 PM)

Kemp, in a keeper league.

Brendan (Harris)

Brendan! In a 5x5 keeper league, having a touch time deciding between Ichiro or Kemp. Who will have the better yr? Thanks!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:06 PM)

Not sure if it was you or not, but just answered this one as Kemp.

Matt (Frigid Chicago)

In a keeper league, do you value Ellsbury more than an injury prone and perhaps a bit overrated Soriano or an aging Carlos Beltran? I know Ellsbury had 2 terrible months, but I think he'll improve and be dynamite on top of that lineup. Thanks for the advice.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:07 PM)

Yes, I do too. I love what Ellsbury's future looks like. I'd endorse that decision unless you are loaded with steals already among your keepers. In a lot of leagues, those high-steal guys are in high demand. Sure, you have your Taverases later, but I guess I'm saying it'll probably be tougher to get your hands on an Ellsbury than a Soriano or Beltran. Sounds strange, but I'm with ya.

Mark (Boston, MA)

Hey Brendan, I have a dynasty league question for you. Who is the better long-term prospect, Trevor Cahill or Tommy Hanson? Thanks!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:09 PM)

Good question, Mark. But I love Hanson, and think he'll be good and good right away. Of course, the Braves' signing of the Japanese guy (not even going to try to spell it here) and Lowe make him look farther away, but I actually like what it'll do for Hanson. It allows him to get spot starts or at least come into a non-pressure situation as a No. 5 starter, kinda like what happened with Scherzer last season. It allows the Braves to do the right thing.

Scott (Concord, NH)

What are your thoughts about the Michael Young / Elvis Andrus reports coming out of Texas? Do you think Elvis actually gets serious playing time this year? I'm eager as I have him (Elvis) stashed away as a Rookie. Thanks for chatting!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:11 PM)

Thanks for asking! Yes, certainly some drama from Texas. Reports are Young "freaked out" or "blew up" or whatever you want to call it when he was told the plans. My guess is they'd have trouble trading his salary, and they don't really want to. I'd guess they keep him, and keep him at SS. When Andrus is ready, he'll be brought up to play 2B, backup SS and play 3B, just to ease him in. In 2010, that scenario might change.

Dan (New Haven)

Thoughts on Chris Carpenter?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:13 PM)

Was just reading about him, Dan. Reports are he is throwing again, but he's a little tentative and not sure how things will go after both elbow and shoulder problems. Honestly, and I'm a Cards fan, I don't think he'll be the same pitcher again. I'm not sure he can even throw 180-plus innings again. My guess is he settles in to become a low-inning but semi-effective starter, but certainly don't think he's the same guy he was pre-surgery.

Phil (Grand Rapids, MI)

Pick a SS for a dynasty H2H points league...Tulo, Drew, Alexei Ramirez.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:13 PM)

I'm sold on Drew. I'd say him.

Liam (Philly, PA)

Is Aviles a keeper at $5? He's a solid SS option that could hit .300 with 15 HR, and 60+ RBI. That's keeper worthy, right?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:14 PM)

Yeah, the opinions are mixed on him. A lot of scout-types aren't sold on him because he's nothing special to them. But the sabermatricians look at his numbers and see just the numbers you're quoting. I fall to the latter, and yes, definitely worth $5.

Jay (Georgetown, MA)

Were last year's numbers the type we should expect from Manny parra going forward, or is he capable of (much) better?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:16 PM)

I don't think he has as high a ceiling as many folks do. I still see a guy who walks too many guys and isn't efficient enough in his pitch counts to pitch deep into games. It'll get better with age/experience, but I don't see that entirely going away. He'll be one of these Oliver Perez types, in my mind, with a couple fewer walks and Ks. High WHIP, decent ERA, few wins. Only slightly better improvement this season.

Steve(Mass)

Is Abreu still a valuable fantasy option?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:17 PM)

Yes he is. He's a "professional hitter" and a great gap hitter. He might not have been quite what the Yanks expected and might not run as much, but he still drives in runs, gets on base a ton ... Where he ends up is anybody's guess, but I see him hitting third wherever that is.

James (IA)

Thoughts on Felipe Lopez this year? I can keep him for $1 in a pretty deep league and he has eligibility at 2B/SS/3B/OF. Would you consider keeping him?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:18 PM)

Definitely worth a $1 there. The D-backs have committed to playing him a decent amount, and he's back in a hitters' park again.

Will (San Diego, CA)

Adrian Gonzalez seems underrated this year. While he does play on a bad team in a pitchers park, he did put up impressive numbers last year with the same conditions, has improved every year, and is still only 26. What are your thoughts on him?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:19 PM)

Adrian Gonzalez is underrated EVERY year. Just given the park and the lineup, I think there's a cap on how many homers and RBIs he'll produce, but I don't see why he can't provide similar to 2008 numbers for years to come. Yes, solid, durable, and maintains good splits, too.

Phil (Grand Rapids, MI)

Travis Snider in two years...more Adam Dunn or Ryan Braun?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:20 PM)

Glad you asked about two years. People are already ga-ga about him this season, but he's not ready. Adam Dunn is such a unique hitter from a stat perspective; nobody like him. But yes, I could see him SOMEDAY being a poor man's Braun. Still not sure it'll be in two years, though.

Aric, Iowa

What are your thoughts on Lowe. Is he going to put together another great season worthy of keeper status.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:21 PM)

Yes, I think he'll put together a typical Lowe season. He'll struggle out of the gate, and his record will fall to 5-8 in June, and he and the Braves will get all kinds of grief. Then he'll turn it on like he usually does and finish with 2008-like numbers. Just beware as a Lowe owner you have to stay patient in the first half of the season.

jake, fl

people seem down on brandon phillips this year, do you have prediction for this year and next?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:24 PM)

Unfortunately, I'm of the mind that his 2007 stats were an aberration. I think he swings at too many bad pitches to be even a .285 hitter. So that .261 average is closer to what I'd expect from him again. But so are the 23 steals and 21 homers. I'd call those about a baseline for him. I guess I'm saying I think the 2008 Phillips is more the guy to expect.

Steiny (NYC)

In your opinion will Dontrelle Willis have a bounce back season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:26 PM)

I just don't see it. Something just looks off with him, and I've never been a real big fan of him because of his walks. I don't see him bouncing back to dominance in 2009, or maybe ever. Maybe back end of a mixed rotation, but not someone you can rely on.

Steve(Mass)

i hear lowell wont be back for the beginning of the season...what would be expected out of him if he isnt?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:28 PM)

You as a Mass. guy probably would know better, but I thought there was a good chance he'd be ready for Opening Day? I think that's the indication I got from the Globe. If he's not, he should return soon thereafter, and since he's not exactly a big runner, I could see him staying healthy and semi-productive. Maybe not to former levels -- his age has something to do with that, too -- but definitely corner-infileder in a mixed league status.

Craig (Davenport, Iowa)

Hi Brendan! Glad to see we're talkin' baseball. 2 questions - where do you see O-Dog landing and what are your thoughts on James McDonald?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:31 PM)

Good ol' D-port. I know the place well. Not sure about Hudson, and I'm not usually into speculations, but I'm hearing White Sox are interested. I like McDonald, who has great mound savvy, but I see him doing one of those middle-reliever-to-starter things when he's fully up, so not sure he has immediate value.

Eric (Matawan, New Jersey

Who's your #1 pick this year? Pujols?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:32 PM)

Definitely Hanley. Still have my doubts about Pujols, and I'm an STL guy. I think there's a bit of a cover-up that's happening here with that elbow. Don't want to alarm folks, though.

Scott (NJ)

First pick in a 10 team dynasty league draft. Which minor leaguer should I target not named Wieters? LaPorta? Hanson?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:33 PM)

Looking for somebody close to the bigs? Mat Gamel, perhaps? Dexter Fowler is up there, too. But I really couldn't argue with Hanson.

James (IA)

(Off topic, sorry)Looks like Pioli is going to the Chiefs. Does Ferentz follow him??

Brendan Roberts

  (3:34 PM)

And I follow you off-topic ... I sure hope not (on Ferentz). I'm a big Hawkeyes fan, and would cry if he left. Sorry. Back to baseball ...

Eric (Matawan,New Jersey)

Do you keep away from Uggla this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:35 PM)

Not sure why you would. His value isn't exactly out of anybody's price range, and he's healthy and still coming off a 30-homer season. Everybody always seems down on the guy, and yet he puts up 30-homer 85-RBI seasons. I'd expect more of the same.

Steve- Mass

have you heard anything else about hanley being traded to the Sox,how serious were those trade talks and who do you think woould win out?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:37 PM)

Ha, ha. Yeah, I heard those rumors. To exaggerate it a bit: Epstein: "So what would it take to get Hanley back?"Marlins: "Your whole team."(Click. Dialtone.) Dead deal.

Harvey: (Boston)

Pick one to draft first: Hart/Kemp/Markakis?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:38 PM)

I'd say Markakis in that one. It seems like he's been around for awhile, but he's only 25, and could be still getting better. He's money!

Pujols Fans

Can you elaborate?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:39 PM)

Sorry, I'd rather not until I have more facts. But suffice to say I think his elbow is still a problem going forward, although he can probably continue to play through it. Just don't want that (elbow injury) to leave my mind just yet.

Shane (Edison NJ)

Sup Brendan? I have to pick a team to start a keeper league with. You start with 8 guys from that team. Yanks, Mets, Boston, Philly are taken. I am thinking it is down to the Cubs, Rays, Brewers, Dodgers. Right now I am 70/30 Rays over Cubs. If its: Lee, Aramis, Soriano, Soto, Bradley, Zambrano, Harden/Dempster/Marmol -vs- Longoria, Pena, Upton, Burrell, Crawford, Shields, Kazmir, Price/Garza/Iwamura... what do you think?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:41 PM)

Hi, Shane. I was going to fire off "the Rays," but that is a pretty compelling argument for the Cubs. Some real talent there. But I think, assuming you get more than just the guys mentioned, I'd have to stick with the Rays. Lot more great talent (incl. Price) on the way.

Danny (Monmouth)

Who makes his MLB debut first and ETA: Madison Bumgardner or Neftali Feliz? Who has more upside and is either an ace?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:42 PM)

I'd say Baumgartner, although the scout's opinions on him (really both guys are mixed). I like Baumgartner to have the better future, too, but I don't see either being an ace. I don't think they're exactly diamonds in the rough.

Ty (Kansas City, MO)

Will "Godzilla" rebound, or can we expect another mediocre injury plagued season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:44 PM)

Good question about Hideki Matsui. I think the days of him playing everyday are about over, but I think the Yanks play it safer with him this year and sit him often. So I wouldn't say injury-plagued, but more like 140-145 games, something in the middle. I think the power has been sapped as well, although he'll still get plenty of RBIs in that lineup.

Zach (PA)

New dynasty league starting - would you take Braun over A-Rod?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:44 PM)

Yeah, I would. It's close, and I think A-Rod has many good years left, but Braun has more of 'em.

Big Joe (Raider Nation)

Brendan, what type of value do you see Carl Crawford giving this year? I've already begun doing some mock drafts and have been able to land him in the 6th-8th round range. I know he had a bit of down season but this guy was a (1st-2nd) rounder only LAST year. Could he be the steal of baseball drafts this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:46 PM)

I think that's a GREAT move on your part, Joe. Yes, I believe he could be the "steal" (pun intended) of drafts this season. By all accounts, he's healthy, and I've heard reports that he was ashamed and embarrassed to be hurt during crunch time, and wants to erase any concerns. I love him for 2009. He's still in a prime age to produce (although I'm giving up on that 20-homer thing).

Nick (Omaha)

What are your thoughts on Brandon Morrow this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:47 PM)

I've always been a Morrow fan, and I think he's one of the top sleepers among SPs. I think the guy's ceiling as a starting pitcher includes an All-Star appearance, and I wouldn't put it past him showing it off THIS season (like he did for a spell in 2008).

Jake (KC)

Need some quick help...do I trade Mike Young for Magglio Ordonez? Have Tulo at SS, so this would be for my Utility spot...

Brendan Roberts

  (3:48 PM)

Hmm, since it's only for your UTIL spot, I could get behind that. Depends on if you're going all out to win this year. Mags is the better short-term option, but Young the better future option.

Joe (DC)

Chris Davis or Jay Bruce for 09?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:51 PM)

You ready for this? Davis. You heard me. I'm one of the mind that Bruce MIGHT be the next Ken Griffey Jr. or whatever everyone calls him, but he won't do so in 2009, or maybe even 2010. He's just too much of a free swinger to hit better than .260ish, and as he fills out, I don't see many steals either. That makes him in the same class as Davis, who I think has more immediate homer power, maybe even 35 dingers this season. It's unconventional, but since you're asking only about 2009, I'd say davis.

Eric (Jersey)

I am getting sick of waiting for Manny to sign with someone. Who do you think its going to be and what's it going to take?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:52 PM)

I don't know what it's going to take, and that's not really my business to know. But I am preparing as if he's a Dodger and leaving it at that until I hear otherwise. Eventually, Boras will stop playing his games.

Joe (DC)

More likely scenario: Chipper plays 145 games in 09, Ludwick repeats is 08 numbers or Bruce is a concensus 2nd rounder next season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:53 PM)

Very interesting question. Hmm, don't think Chipper plays even 145 games. Don't think Bruce hits for a high enough average to be considered that highly, so Ludwick! I don't think he'll repeat 2008, but I think he'll at least approach it.

LEE

Hey Brendan, I am keeping Arod, Braun, Pujol, Kinsler, Granderson, and King Felix...would you trade Kinsler and Felix for Jose Reyes or stay put?...

Brendan Roberts

  (3:54 PM)

I'd stay put or try to get someone else in return. You'd be giving up two of the top young talents in baseball there (assuming you're talking about King Felix).

Khaki: (NYC)

Your top 3 picks in a 5x5 mixed league: Hanley, ARod, Reyes?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:55 PM)

Nah, Hanley, A-Rod, then Pujols. See, I still like Pujols, just not as a No. 1.

Ellen (Boston, MA)

Following up on an earlier question, for 2009, Alexei Ramirez or Chris Davis?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:55 PM)

Also close, but still Davis.

Mark (Boston, MA)

I was recently able to grab Jeremy Bonderman off the free agent list in a 12-team dynasty league---what are the chances of him bouncing back to fantasy relevance this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:57 PM)

Nice move, Mark. Exactly the type of boom-or-bust type to get your hands on. But I don't think the chances are good. Bonderman has always thrown a straight ball, and didn't have a vast array of pitches to fool hitters. But in his best years, he could blow it by hitters and set up his curve. Now, for whatever reason (injury, fatigue), he can't blow it by hitters, kinda leaving him as a power pitcher without the power. I'm pulling for him -- feel bad for what the Tigers did to him -- but I'm not expecting much.

Tom (Sag Harbor, NY)

How do you compare Chone and Roberts for 2009? Do you like C-Zam for this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:59 PM)

Roberts, Roberts, Roberts. No doubt about that one, in my mind. What a solid second baseman. C-Zam? I don't know that I've ever owned him. His walk count (and of course pitch counts) have always bothered me, and it seems his bad second-half stretches are extended more each season. I'm worried about C-Zam this season, I guess I'm saying.

Jon (Fort Lauderdale, FL)

Markakis or Davis?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:59 PM)

Definitely Markakis there.

Dave (Chicago)

Thoughts on Alexei Ramirez this year? It seems like his average could come down, but power and speed should improve even if it's just because of regular playing time and a better spot in the order.

Brendan Roberts

  (4:00 PM)

I agree, on pretty much all accounts. Hmm, maybe .278 with 29 homers, 22 steals and decent runs and RBIs? Just a guess.

Brendan Roberts

  (4:01 PM)

All righty, guys. I really have to run. I'm working on writing our first position previews, which should show up in late January or early Feb. -- when we launch our draft kit! It's that time already!

Brendan Roberts

  (4:01 PM)

I'll be back again next week, though, so we'll see ya then!