ESPN

Joe Lunardi

  (3:02 PM)

Happy new year, everyone. Let's make a Bracketology resolution to take as many questions as humanly possible in the next 45 minutes.

Steiny (NYC)

Do you think Villanova is a final-four caliber team?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:06 PM)

How did I know the first question of the year would be a 'Nova question? My short answer is "no." Then again, who thought the 'Cats were a Sweet 16 team last year? Because of that finish, however, I do think there are some unfair expectations on Villanova this season. The depth of the Big East makes a repeat of last season more than enough of a challenge for the Wildcats.

Scott (Minneapolis, MN)

Joe just curious what your beef with Butler is? First off you don't have them in the power rankings...and you are the only one of the ten panel members that don't. Then to top that off you have Butler as an 8 seed in Bracketology. Butler is ranked 20th and 21st in the Polls, is currently 3rd in the RPI, won at Xavier, and only lost to Ohio St by 3. When are you going to start giving the Bulldogs the respect their resume deserves?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:09 PM)

Let's be fair, Scott. No one has argued louder or more frequently over the years for the selection and seeding of non-BCS teams than yours truly. Can I have place the current Bulldogs a bit higher in both my poll and our first bracket? Sure. But do you really think the Bulldogs are the No. 3 team in the nation? All such rankings -- RPI, polls, Sagarin, whatever your pleasure -- just aren't very valid this early. So I have to look toward the end of the season, and my best guess is that Butler will land right about where I have them.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Mr. Lunardi: How many wins will it take for PSU to get invited to the Dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:10 PM)

This is a great question, because the Nittany Lions have a real chance coming off the Purdue win and a 2-1 start to conference play. Given that their non-conference schedule is so weak, I think PSU needs at least 11 conference wins to be a serious at-large contender. Ten wins and the right mix in the Big Ten tourney could also work.

Ben (Tempe, AZ)

You had Wisconsin as a number 2 at the start of the year.. They have had a good year so far with a few bad breaks in the Texas and Marquette games.. do you still see them being able to get a #2? Would they have to win the Big 10?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:12 PM)

Whomever escapes the better-than-expected Big Ten, particularly if there is separation at the top, should be no worse than a No. 2 seed. A No. 1 seed isn't out of the question.

Chris, Seattle

Where does Washington fit in when it comes to the tourny? They look like they are improving everyday and they have some real talent.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:13 PM)

There is certainly room in this year's Pac-10 for a team such as UW to emerge as an NCAA threat. Given that the Huskies lost their best non-league games, a very strong conference season (11 wins?!?) is going to be needed. So far, so good with the wins over Wazzu and Stanford.

JL (Hoboken, NJ)

What does Vandy need to do in conference play to get to the dance? How badly will that home blowout loss to Illinois-Chicago look in March?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:15 PM)

Vandy can start by winning Saturday at Kentucky. The loser of that game is going to be facing an uphill battle for an at-large bid.

Andrew (Nebraska)

what does cincinnati need to do in the Big East to make the dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:16 PM)

Finished ahead of at least two of the following in the Big East: Pitt, UConn, Gtown, Lville, 'Cuse, ND, Marquette, 'Nova, and WVU. Good luck with that!

sam (novi michigan)

How far do you think Boston College will do in any tourny since they beat #1 UNC?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:17 PM)

Well, Sam, we know now they'd finish no better than second in the Ivy League (sorry, couldn't resist!).

John (Watertown, NY)

What are St. John's chances on making the tournament this year?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:18 PM)

Everyone makes the Big East tourney now.

Mike (Allentown, PA)

Joe, do you think that this is finally the year Clemson translates their annual great start in to conference and tournament success? I'm cautiously optimistic based on their improved free-throw shooting this year.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:19 PM)

I think Clemson is legit, Mike. Not Final Four legit, necessarily, but the Tigers should be a Sweet 16 team in March.

Shane (Reno, NV)

Joe, you have Utah State in your next four out. What do they have to do for the remainder of the year to pick up an at large bid should they lose in the conference tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:20 PM)

An outright WAC title would be the best possible credential for Utah State. The Aggies also need to root long and loud for Utah (even if it kills 'em).

Kyle (KC)

Do you see Kansas improving their seed much over the course of the Big 12 season? How much would a win at Michigan St. help? And finally do you give them any shot to win tomorrow?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:21 PM)

KU is probably catching Michigan State at the wrong time, as the Spartans are healthy and peaking. Their NCAA seed, however, should be on the rise given a typical season in the Big 12.

Derek (Cleveland)

Will Michigan finally make the tourney? Seeding?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:22 PM)

I'd put Michigan's NCAA odds at about 60/40 (in favor) at this point. Given their long tourney drought, this qualifies as very good news.

W (Charlotte, NC)

How will South Carolina do in SEC play? Big improvements so far from last year, but no height or depth. Your thoughts?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:23 PM)

I'd feel better if South Carolina was in the other division. Two games each with UK, Florida and Tennessee makes an NCAA bid unlikely even for this much improved team (but it's not impossible!).

Chris (NY, NY)

With Rautins unconscious from 3 right now and a good post presence in Onauku and the best point guard in the country in Flynn, is Syracuse a legit Final Four contender

Joe Lunardi

  (3:24 PM)

I am very high on the Orange, Chris. To me they are very much a sleeper Final Four contender.

David (Fairborn, OH)

Dayton will be a __ seed come March. (Sorry, haven't looked at your most recent bracketology)...

Joe Lunardi

  (3:26 PM)

My answer, David, would be "double digit" seed. For Dayton to markedly improve upon that, the Flyers will need to demonstrate an ability to win tough road games. This has been their downfall for a long, long time.

Jack (NC)

How much better is the ACC than every other conference?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:27 PM)

Not this year, Jack.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Mr. Lunardi: Would you be in favor of expanding the field to 68 and having four 1st round games (remember they aren't calling 65 v 64 a play-in)?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:28 PM)

I'm on record as being in favor of expansion only if the additional games involves at-large teams (as opposed to automatic qualifiers). Let the bubble teams fight it out, if expansion is deemed necessary. Don't punish a team for doing everything it was asked in its own conference.

Geoff(Rochester, NY)

This last several years have been brutal for us St. Bonaventure fans, and I know you have some A-10 knoweldge, so I'm curious to know what you think of chances to make some noise in the leauge this year?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:30 PM)

It's already happening. The Bonnies have already won a conference road game (at Fordham, admittedly). And the way the schedule falls, Bona has a real chance for a 3-0 start in the Atlantic 10.

Billy (NYC)

Where do you see Siena fitting in thus far?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:31 PM)

The Saints did their best to schedule "up" and bag a scalp or two out of conference. It didn't really happen, so it's back to winning the MAAC. Niagara and perhaps Rider are serious challengers, so it's important for Siena to defend its home court (Rider) tonight.

Jack (NC)

Oh really? Hmmmm, every year they are better and just happen to have 3 of the top 4 teams (ok Wake is a joke)....come on. ESPN tries its hardest to make other conferences look good, but the championship will be in North Carolina one way or another.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:32 PM)

And the Big East has nine teams in the Top 20. This is a circular argument.

John (Dallas)

Joe, if UCLA were to beat ND in Feb and win the PAC-10 season and tournament can you see them getting a #1 seed in the west?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:33 PM)

It's possible, John, but I don't think the Pac-10 is going to be strong enough to lift the Bruins that high.

Robert (Whitesboro,NY)

Can Syracuse become a 1 seed if they continue on a hot streak throughout?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:34 PM)

Any team that wins this Big East is going to be a No. 1 seed.

Jack (NC)

The Big East has 16 teams. That in itself is ridiculous.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:34 PM)

On this we can agree, Jack.

Gerardo (Tempe, AZ)

Joe, how much do the Gonzaga and Kansas wins weigh for Arizona? Does a 10-win conference season put them in?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:36 PM)

Probably. That would mean going 9-6 the rest of the way after going 3-3 since beating Gonzaga. I'm not optimistic.

John (Dallas)

Joe, my dream would be that all confrenses would have a limit of 10 teams, like the Pac-10, and all would play home and away against each other.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:37 PM)

I certainly prefer the full round-robin (as does the Committee, John). Or at least a sensible divisional format like the SEC. The randomness of the Big East, Big Ten and ACC schedules is, well, random.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Follow-up to the expansion question: But what if a team from a mid-major wins its conference tournament and has a 13-16 record while two at-larges from major conferences have to play an opening round game. Doesn't that penalize the top seeds, who would have to play the winner of those four first round games?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:38 PM)

The opening round winners don't have to be bottom-of-the-bracket seeds.

Vern (SF)

What does Stanford have to do in conference to get a bid? They beat everyone on their non-conference schedule, but unfortunately it amounted to beating noone.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:38 PM)

Just win, Vern, like another 10 times or so.

Christian (Foxborough, MA)

Joe, if BC can win 5 or 6 conference games and get to the semifinals of the ACC tourney, do you think it will be enough to get into the dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:39 PM)

Not enough, Christian. Your scenario puts the Eagles under .500 in the ACC.

Chris (Maryland)

People obviously are trying to keep knocking the Big East. I guess that happens though when your the best confernce by far.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:40 PM)

I wouldn't go that far ("by far"), Chris, not with a league that includes Rutgers and South Florida.

Phil (Billings, MT)

How much did the Morgan State loss hurt Maryland if they finish at least .500 in the ACC?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:41 PM)

The Terps haven't played a true road game AND they lost to Morgan State. A .500 ACC record is no guarantee in my book.

Tom (Fairfax)

Which team makes it out of the CAA?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:41 PM)

Any team with three initials (in order): GMU, VCU or ODU.

John (Dallas)

Joe, are you updating your brackets today?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:42 PM)

No Friday updates until February, John, but thanks for asking.

M. Butler (Atlanta, GA)

Speaking of WFU as a joke, they did win a tourney on the West Coast (neutral court). How big were those wins? Wake has always had trouble going out West in the tourney, so I think it is great experience.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

Who said Wake was a joke? The Demon Deacons did win the Anaheim Classic, so you are correct on that point.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

Three quickies, then I'm of to ESPN News at 4:20 p.m. ET.

Steve (DC)

Regarding your Rutgers and USF comment above, all leagues have bad teams. They were brought in for football. If you just take the top 10 or 11 teams from the Big East (normal size conference) does any conference compare to that?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:44 PM)

Not this season.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Mr. Lunardi: Are you OK with a team that has a sub-.500 overall record getting a bid to the NCAA Tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:44 PM)

If they win a conference tournament, there's nothing we can do about it.

Pat (Fort Morgan, CO)

Joe, thanks for giving Cal their just due even though the rankings won't. If the Bears finish second in the Pac-10 and make it semis of the Pac-10 tournament, do you see them possibly getting a #3 or #4 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:45 PM)

High end would be a No. 4 for Cal, I think.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:45 PM)

Have a great weekend, everyone.