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Keith Law

  (1:04 PM)

Someday when I'm up for the Spink award, I hope there's a grumpy writer around to remind everyone that I was the Most Feared Chatter in the business.

Olaf (NYC)

Hey Keith - apparently owners are in favor of salary caps. Who would have thought? Let's write a bunch of articles about this!!

Keith Law

  (1:05 PM)

You ain't kiddin'. Shawn of Squawking Baseball had a good piece at Prospectus last week about how a salary cap is likely to hurt low-revenue clubs ... but more importantly, how is it that sportswriters don't see through owners' rhetoric?

JP (Columbus, OH)

Whose house?KLaw's house

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

You all know what time it is.

Jim (Chicago)

Keith, can you explain all this hype about the Ryan Howard arbitration hearing? Isn't the point of arbitration to pay players what they are worth in respect to similar players in the league? If Howard's salary comes back at $18-$20 million, wouldnt that be fair price for someone of his caliber?

Keith Law

  (1:07 PM)

It's with respect to players with similar service, so Howard will be compared to other second-time-eligible players from this year and recent years (that would include players with, roughly, 3 years and about 135 days or service to 4 years and about 135 days of service). So Howard's agents can't compare him to Mark Teixeira and use Teix's current contract as a reference point.

Jon (DC)

Keith, has the Hall of Fame hired you to take the hinges off the door?

Keith Law

  (1:08 PM)

No, Shaughnessy did that himself.

Chris (NY, NY)

Keith, what a travesty that Jim Rice made the HOF. I guess you have to open the doors now to Albert Belle, Juan Gonzalez, Jose Canseco, Bernie Williams, Edgar Martinez, Andre Dawson and Harold Baines all of which had very comparable numbers to Rice. How about requiring 85% for admission?

Keith Law

  (1:09 PM)

Given the politicized nature of the votings, with out-and-out campaigns on both sides of the ideological divide, I doubt a higher benchmark would make that much of a difference. You also want to avoid years without any inductions; the ceremony would be short and rather boring. How about we just, I don't know, vote for better players?

Andrew (Bridgeport CT)

I know you are a fan of F-Mart. What do you make of the news that he was cut by his VWL team? Is this simply a case of being tired by a long year of baseball (as I hope)?

Keith Law

  (1:10 PM)

He was cut after 25 at bats. It's a case of winter league teams being (as always) a little dim when it comes to sample sizes.

Rich-Dallas

Waht is Vin Mazzaro's ceiling? eta?

Keith Law

  (1:11 PM)

Mid-rotation starter/innings eater. Not an ace. At least a full year away.

eric sf ca

Hey Keith, what are the chances Grant Green falls to the Giants with 5 pick in the draft. Also is he a true SS prospect or is he going to be moved in the majors?

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

Other than Strasburg, there is no player in the draft about whom I would say "he won't be there at 5." It's just too fluid. Chances to stay at shortstop ... fair. I'd like to see him again before saying something more definite.

Terry (Tubby, CA)

Keith, have to miss the chat but I was hoping you will still see this. Hypothetical as an example: Could the Yankees trade/purchase Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins for $100-150 million? What are the rules regulating the sale of players for only money? Thanks

Keith Law

  (1:14 PM)

Anything over $1MM requires Commissioner approval, and the precedent is that outright sales of players will be rejected.

Jason (Birmingham, MI)

Keith, Alan Trammell isn't going to make it, is he?

Keith Law

  (1:14 PM)

No, unfortunately.

Casey, LA, CA

Over/Under- 87 wins to win the AL west.

Keith Law

  (1:14 PM)

Right now, under.

Alan (St. Pete)

What do you think of Kapler as a platoon partner for Joyce or Gross? Seems like a good role for him. I really like the way the Rays' bench is shaping up.

Keith Law

  (1:16 PM)

I assumed when they signed Kapler that he and Joyce would be the Frankenrightfielder. Could be pretty impressive - Joyce in his first year in the majors hit .255/.333/.509 against RHP, and Kapler hit .354/.379/.622 in 82 AB vs LHP last year (and is .294/.344/.484 in his career).

Frank (NYC)

I know you say you ignore names, but does it bother you if the same name submits 10-15 "different" questions? Sometimes there is a lot of questions someone may want answered.

Keith Law

  (1:17 PM)

Doesn't bother me at all. Ask good questions, or say something funny, or give me a chance to rant, and you've got a chance to get answered. I know I've had chats where one person has gotten 4-5 questions in.

Dan (DC)

Do you think you could be "swayed" by a HOF argument on a player? Seems like the more analytical types like yourself can figure out your ballot in about ten minutes, and that's that.

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

I could certainly be swayed, but not by cowspit arguments like "most feared." I've admitted to being on the fence about Dawson, and I'm still on the fence about Larkin for next year. I also think you can craft a better-than-expected case for Galarraga, which would probably put me on the wrong side of the aisle from other basement-dwelling stat geeks.

Ike (AL)

Cajun or regular Five Guys fries?

Keith Law

  (1:19 PM)

Usually regular.

Jon (Bay Area, California)

Is Orlando Cabrera worth the draft pick you would have to give up?

Keith Law

  (1:19 PM)

Not a first-rounder.

DC (NY)

Keith,There was an Boston Globe article pumping Daniel Bard. hitting 100 mph, could make it to Boston this year. What's your take? Has he really turned it around enough that he has a legit shot at helping the Sox this year and going forward.

Keith Law

  (1:21 PM)

He doesn't throw 100 - I doubt he's ever legitimately done so except on a stadium gun. He's back on the radar, electric stuff, slider has improved, should be much more aggressive - you've got power stuff, go after guys, stop nibbling or working around them. I doubt that the Sox would trust the current incarnation of Bard in a leveraged situation. That said, he's young and can continue to mature, while the stuff is too high-quality to bet against.

Luis (Guatemala)

Hola Sr. Law, solamente para saludarlo y comentar acerca de J. Smoltz. Did the BoSox got a "bargain" by signing him or U think the risks are too big to put it as a bargain?

Keith Law

  (1:22 PM)

I don't think it's a bargain at that price; if you consider the probability that he pitches, how much he could pitch, and how well he might pitch, $5MM is going to be a fair price or even slightly high. But the Red Sox have the money to overpay slightly, and it's possible that his marginal value to them is high enough to justify the cost. Given how tough the AL East looks, the value of a marginal win to Boston, the Yanks, or Tampa is probably quite high right now.

JW(nh)

Wanted to ask in respect to your post - Tommy Hanson now starts the year in MiLB or as a 5th starter/swingman/reliever?

Keith Law

  (1:22 PM)

Minors.

Craig (Bethesda, MD)

Hey Keith, just wanted to see if you saw Jim Rice on MLBNetwork yesterday. When asked if he thought Fenway helped or hurt him, he said in the end it had to have hurt him...Just sad...

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

Players, in general, are not good at explaining what made them good players.

Ogilvy (DC)

Klaw, Les Mis the musical or Les Mis the book, which is better?

Keith Law

  (1:24 PM)

Never read the book. Fourteen hundred pages? That's a solid month for me, reading an hour a day. I lack that sort of attention sp... oh, hey, another question.

James (LA)

At the bottom of this page it has the avarege IQ's of the Blue Jays Fan and the average Blue Jays IQ. I see these all over ESPN's site. So what is KLAW's IQ?

Keith Law

  (1:25 PM)

I've never taken an IQ test (not even sure where one would take such a thing). I could probably guess, based on other test scores, but what's the point? Having an IQ of 200 doesn't make someone automatically good at this job.

Chris (Cincy)

A People's History of the United States by Howard Zinn? Yes? No?

Keith Law

  (1:25 PM)

No. Just a mess.

Chris Andover

Your main knock on Dawson is a poor OBP and numbers don't lie but can't they mislead? What was the league average OBP in dawsons prime vs current times? Arent writers in the sabermetrician era judging players unfairly on a curve? OBP was not emphasized then like it is now I would suspect. Plate discipline and working counts has never been so engrained in development as it is now wouldn't you think?

Keith Law

  (1:26 PM)

I went over this last week - OBP measures how often a player makes an out. (That's technically 1-OBP.) Do you seriously think that when Dawson played, he and coaches and scouts didn't realize that making outs was bad? More to the point, the VALUE of not making an out is easily calculated, and guess what? Making outs in the 1970s and 1980s was ... bad!

Jerry (Berkeley)

Speaking of park effects, do you buy the assertion of some old timers that their stats would have been significantly better in another park? For instance, Willie Mays has been quoted as saying he may have hit 800 homers if he hadn't played at Candlestick.

Keith Law

  (1:27 PM)

I believe someone (maybe several someones) looked at that claim and decided it was a load of bunk. Not that I needed someones to tells me that.

jsm (dallas)

Looks like the Rangers have committed to Elvis Andrus in 2009. What can we expect from him? +15 runs in the field with a 650 OPS seems likely to me.

Keith Law

  (1:28 PM)

You might be a little light on the OPS - remember the park - but you've got the right idea. I do like him, but he's not ready offensively. His best shot for MLB offensive value right now is as a slap-hitter who gets a little BaBIP fluke and hits .300.

Matt (Tulsa)

What are your thoughts on the Andy Oliver case?

Keith Law

  (1:32 PM)

I'm not sure what to expect - I wasn't in the room to hear the testimony, nor am I any sort of jurist - but I hope that 1) he's reinstated without penalty 2) the judge strikes down the NCAA's prohibition on having HS players use agents and 3) Oliver's former agent, who lied to me about having turned Oliver in to the NCAA, is called to task for causing the violation in the first place. (For those who don't know, Oliver - a probable first-round pick this June, with a chance to be top ten - was suspended after he fired his old agent, who then told the NCAA that he had negotiated with the Twins on Oliver's behalf back in 2006. That's a violation of the NCAA's rules on agents.)

Rickey

KLaw, what's your favorite "Rickey" anecdote, real or made-up?

Keith Law

  (1:33 PM)

I was going to answer this, but if the story isn't true (I do believe that it is, as it was told to me by someone who was on the bus for it), it might be construed as racist.

Dave Parker(Pitt, PA)

If Jim Rice is in I'm next, right?After all what inspires more fear than someone nicknamed "The Cobra?"

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

Dawson gets in for sure. Murphy gets a big boost. McGriff may also be a direct beneficiary.

Mark (NJ)

Just wanted to say that your article on Raines was one of best pieces I have read on this site. I probably forwarded the link to 20 people and every single one of them are now on the Raines bandwagon (rightfully so)

Keith Law

  (1:35 PM)

Thank you. If I can become the flag-bearer for Raines' Hall case, I'd be pleased to do it.

Jon (Cleveland, OH)

KLAW, how real is Carlos Santana? Where does he project in a major league lineup and will he stay at catcher?

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

I think he's a potential star, at least an above-average player who hits extremely well for a catcher and is adequate defensively.

Steve - Boston, MA

Keith - Enjoy your work. What's the ETA on your Top 100 Prospect List?

Andrei (Hoboken)

Kieth, do you work for Scouts, Inc or ESPN or both?

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

Scouts, Inc., is just a brand name, not a separate company from ESPN.

Justin(Frozen Solid in Chicago)

Justin Maxwell...what do you project from him?

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

Probably an extra outfielder in the majors. He was 24 and posted an .826 OPS in AA this year. I know he's athletic and toolsy, but he can't stay healthy and doesn't hit that well when he plays.

Patrick (Chicago)

Keith, was it the "Tenure" Rickey story?

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

That's the one. Am I wrong?

Tryor (TN)

Poz's readers currently have Washington, Lincoln, Jefferson, FDR, and TR as first-class HOF presidents. Any quibbles with those 5?

Keith Law

  (1:44 PM)

FDR gets a bit of a free pass. The New Deal was not the economic panacea that it's now often held to be, and the whole court-packing thing seems to be forgotten.

Wes (Austin TX)

Can you weigh in on the MYoung situation? I really don't see how the Rangers could have handled this differently. If they think Elvis is ready for a shot and optimizes the talent on the field, are they supposed to wait until MY gives them permission to move off SS? MY has to have seen the writing on the wall.. The Ranger's Brass was just giving him a heads up for what is inevitably going to happen.

Keith Law

  (1:45 PM)

I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base. Reminds me a little of John Valentin's snit-fit the year Nomar came up. To his credit, Valentin eventually acknowledged that he was wrong. That Gold Glove for Young was the worst thing that could have happened to Texas - now the guy really believes he's good at short.

Jason (Pitt)

What happened to the site man? You get a nasty virus?

Keith Law

  (1:47 PM)

One of my Wordpress plugins had an exploit that left a subdirectory writeable. I believe it was the automatic backup plugin. Someone slipped a paypal phishing scam into the plugin's subdirectory. Had to export the database, wipe the entire /blog directory, and rebuild. Not fun.

Mark (Yonkers, NY)

Who is Bryce Harper? What is his potential?

Keith Law

  (1:47 PM)

#1 pick in the 2011 draft. Potential to be Joe Mauer with power.

Bobber (Yonkers)

What about the Olerud helmet story? I think it has truthiness.

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Olerud has apparently told different people different versions, including telling some people that it was a fabrication.

Jacob (Atlanta)

Best team in the AL Central as of now?

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Cleveland.

Kyle (Seattle)

Logan Morrison or Justin Smoak?

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

Wow, good one. Ultimately, I think Smoak, although Morrison has the pro track record that Smoak doesn't.

KO (Pittsfield, MA)

Please comment on Matt Holliday's home/road splits and doesn't he become much more of an average bat in Oakland?

Keith Law

  (1:50 PM)

Rockies' hitters road stats have not proven to be great predictors of their stats when they leave the team. It seems that playing home games in Coors deflates your performance when you're playing away from Coors.

Tim (Athens)

In case someone ever makes the "only was an All-Star this many times" argument, here are a few seasons Jim Thome had where he was NOT an All-Star:- 38 HR, .450 OBP, .612 SLG- 49 HR, .416 OBP, .624 SLG- 52 HR, .445 OBP, .677 SLG

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

Good one. How about the "Morris was in the top 10 in Cy voting seven times!" argument? You want to know how brain-dead that is? There are THREE spots on the Cy ballot. If you get a single vote, you're probably in the top ten. Morris finished ninth in the voting in 1987. He got ONE second-place vote. No one finished tenth.

Chet (LA)

Pedro Alvarez or Justin Smoak?

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

Smoak. I've been saying that for a year and a half and I'm not reversing it until Alvarez demonstrates that I was wrong.

Oden (Motown)

I'll bide my time hoping that Tram and Lou get inducted together by the Vet's committee. I know, I am dreaming. Uou are a GM, and I promise you Alan Trammell and his career, or Ozzie Smith and his, who would you select? I gotta go with Tram, the extra O clearly outweighs the (still very good) lesser D.

Keith Law

  (1:53 PM)

I wouldn't wait on the Vets Committee. One year, they got their Hall ballot confused with their lunch menu and accidentally inducted a ham sandwich to the Hall of Fame. It's not even the worst selection they've ever made.

Steve (Fremont, CA)

Klaw...most feared chattist at ESPN. Doesn't Nady for Parnell work great for both NY teams? Yanks get potential young power arm for pen and salary relief, Mets get a RH corner OF and injury/slump protection for Murphy, Church, and Delgado. Plus, Nady should net a pick in the offseason and Fernando can take over in 2010. Who blinks?

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

No, one year of Nady for six of Parnell? When Nady is probably closer to a platoon bat than an everyday bat? I wouldn't do it.

Jason (New York, NY)

What do you think are the chances that the yankees put Joba back in the bullpen where i believe he belongs and is the best asset to the team and letting players like Aceves, Hughes, Kennedy and Kontros fight it out for the fourth and fifth spot in the rotation, and if the yankees do possibly sign Freddy Garcia as it has been rumored, does he fit into the rotation out of spring training??

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

Joba does not belong in the bullpen, and he is NOT more of an asset there. Just stop it.

Dan (Chicago)

I never read Catcher in the Rye in High school, and am reading it now. I noticed its not in your blogs top 100. I'm enjoying it quite a bit, no love for it?

Keith Law

  (1:55 PM)

I read it twice, both times before I turned 14, so perhaps I should give it another chance ... but no, I hated it both times, found it bleak and almost nihilistic and somewhat self-absorbed.

Matt (Decatur, IL)

Is Mike Stanton the real deal? 6'5", 205 lbs and just turned 19. Also, 39 HRs last year??? What's his future?

Keith Law

  (1:56 PM)

70 power. Remade his whole swing after going pro. He's a big leaguer of some sort, but the jury is still out on whether he's just a big-power/low-contact slugger or something more.

Slim Wilkins (Austin, TX)

Does my man Bossman Junior swap 25+ dingers this year?

Keith Law

  (1:56 PM)

Yes.

BJ (Alberta)

So do the Royals seriously think they're contenders in the AL Central now that they got Willie Bloomquist?

Keith Law

  (1:56 PM)

He's a Winning Player(tm).

Eric San Juan, Puerto Rico

Do you believe Roberto Alomar will get elected in his first year of elegibility. To me is a sure Hall of Famer, I'm only 28 but I have never seen no one play secondbaseman better than Robbie.

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

I think he gets in, barely. Dawson gets in, and Blyleven's maybe 50/50 or just worse than that. I don't think any other first-timers get in next year, and no, Raines doesn't get in in 2010.

Mike(San Diego)

I know it's somewhat old news, but I know you point out owners' greed. How ridiculous was John Henry's reaction to the Tex signing? He acts as if Boston has no money to compete with the big bad Yankees, while sitting on the cash cow that is Fenway. Do you think he uses $20's or $100's to light his cigars?

Keith Law

  (1:59 PM)

I don't know many owners who'd send two executives on their private jet to negotiate with a draft pick. Indeed. It's time to just stop talking.

Pete (FL)

Which guys do you think will bounce back and pitch up to their potential in 2009 out of: Verlander, Buchholz, Hughes, Rich Hill and Erik Bedard?

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

Bedard and Hughes are most likely. Hill is least. I don't know what to think of Verlander ... velo down, command down, that usually points to an injury.

Ken (Tremendous)

How can you say that Joba is better used as a starter. In the pen he can impact 70-80 games as a starter he can only impact 35. Its simple math KLAW.

Keith Law

  (2:01 PM)

Had me for a second there.

Jacob (Atlanta)

How do you think Fausto will do this year? Possibly even walking less than five guys per nine?

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

I'd like to think so. Either he gets back towards where he was in 2007, or we find out his elbow ligament is torn into little tiny pieces and he misses the year.

Hank (Boston)

How come you don't get to vote for the hall of fame?

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

Because I don't have tenure?

John (chicago)

KLAW!! Settle a debate for me? Who's the better player (taking names out of it) .250/.367/.507 with 33 homers and 86 RBIs and 33 doubles in a hitters park or .293/.358/.479 with 23 homers, 110 RBIs and 43 doubles in a pitchers park?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

You're not telling me how much the parks affect the performance and what they do on defense. You're also using RBI, which makes my eyes bleed hydrochloric acid. Obviously, if the park factors are far enough apart, the second player could be more valuable.

Jake (VA Beach)

70-80 of one inning showing versus 35 starts of 6+ innings...hmmm, pretty simple math.

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

Check that commenter's name.

Kevin (San Diego)

Better idea: How about not giving Fraggles a forum to convince people that a player is feared?

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

I don't even know what that means, but it made me laugh.

Mike (St. Louis)

...I should have added in my first note, is the addition of Matt Scherer to the Cardinals 40-man roster a sign of how BAD the Cardinals minor league system is right now?

Keith Law

  (2:05 PM)

Their system is, at least, top 10. Much of their talent doesn't have to be on the 40-man yet.

mymrbig (New Orleans)

Freddie Freeman is 2 years younger than Logan Morrison, is only 1 level behind, and had better numbers than Morrison had at loA or A. Why isn't he mentioned in the same class of 1B prospects as Morrison, Smoak, Anderson, etc.?

Keith Law

  (2:06 PM)

Power potential. For guys that far away from the majors, you've got to consider the scouting reports as well as the straight stats.

Joe (Park Ridge, NJ)

Hey Keith...where do you stand on Edgar Martinez and the HOF? Granted he had no value whatsoever defensively, but his career OBP was .416 and he slugged over .500 a season numerous times in his career. If you were a voter, does his 8-10 years of offensive production get him in?

Keith Law

  (2:07 PM)

I lean towards yes. I'm actually looking at a potentially large theoretical ballot next year: Blyleven, Raines, Trammell, McGwire, Larkin, Alomar, Edgar, and I wouldn't dismiss Galarraga or McGriff without some thought.

Pete (Philly)

that was Burrell and Ibanez I imagine. Why so anti-RBI? I'm aware that there a zillion factors out of the players control that affect it, but baseball isn't played in a vaccuum, you have to account for ACTUAL run production. (I imagine you will only answer this if you feel you can bury me with your response)

Keith Law

  (2:10 PM)

If that was Ibanez, it sort of makes my point - Safeco is a pitcher's park, but it's actually good for LH power hitters. Tell me what RBI tells us that's valuable and can't be gleaned from other stats that aren't so context-dependent? Does it have predictive value? (No.) Is it measuring a skill? (Barely. It's too clouded by luck and circumstance.) So why use it?

Rich (NYC)

More bogus stat: wins or saves?

Keith Law

  (2:10 PM)

Wins.

Ben (Nashville, TN)

This new information that the clear was not technically considered a steroid and not illegal prior to 2005 is pretty astounding. 1) That the federal government would waste tax payer money when it is so clear they have no case. And 2) for the witchhunt against Barry Bonds when what he was doing was no different than taking any other over the supplement that wasn't around at the turn of the century, and certainly a lot less illegal than popping greenies or drinking the red juice, as used to be quite common in the game.

Keith Law

  (2:13 PM)

Did anyone ever think this was anything other than a witch hunt? The Mitchell Report was a sop to Congress to keep John McCain from campaigning for President by attacking MLB. The Bonds indictment is about an overzealous DA in San Francisco waging a stupid ideological war on the sport. Now we're left in the Martha Stewart situation: Bonds is being prosecuted for lying about something that wasn't a crime. We can't get you for the underlying actions, since they weren't illegal, so we'll get you for perjury. I'm not one to jump into the scared-of-my-government pool, but I would think anyone concerned with liberty would be nauseated by this sort of prosecution, even if it's been limited (so far) to celebrities.

Jason (Los Angeles, CA)

Hey KLaw, how likely is it that someone other than Stephen Strasburg goes #1 to the Nationals in the draft?

Keith Law

  (2:13 PM)

If he's healthy this spring, he's got to be at least 80% to go #1. The only reason they would pass is if Boras is looking for so much money that he scares them off.

Nick (NJ)

What about a "percentage of runners driven in" type of stat? It would depend upon how many runners were on base when the batter came up over the course of the year plus what actual base they were (weight it so that a runner scored from first is more valuable than a runner scored from third).

Keith Law

  (2:15 PM)

This is better than RBI, but are you arguing that hitting with men on base is a separate skill from hitting? (It's not.) So why deal with that separately from the question of just plain old hitting?

Pete (DC)

Should I brave the crowds on Tuesday to witness history or stay home on my government holiday and watch on TV?

Keith Law

  (2:16 PM)

I can't fathom anyone's desire to go see this. The history was already made. Obama and the country have agreed to terms; he just has to pass the physical and sign the contract on Tuesday.

Luis, Houston TX

Just look at the type of numbers Galarraga had during after He left Colorado and went to pley for Atlanta. Heyman and Verducci both voted for Rice and said yesterday Galarraga shouldn't get into the HOF because of the "Coors Field effect" What a joke

Keith Law

  (2:17 PM)

He hit for a few years in Montreal, got rejuvenated in Coors, then hit well afterwards. Plus he was a great fielder (Rice wasn't) and a great guy by all accounts (Rice wasn't) and came back from cancer (bonus points to some people). It's funny to hear people talk about the "Coors Field effect" like they understand park effects. If they did, they wouldn't support Rice.

Josh Chicago

Not sure if this got submitted as my computer froze. Thoughts on Bartolo Colon reportedly signing with Chisox.

Keith Law

  (2:18 PM)

Colon + Chicago cuisine = when I am going to be back in haiti?

Jeff (DC)

I looked up Blyleven's career ERA + and saw that it was 118 and was like "that's not that great." Then I saw that Steve Carlton's was 115.

Keith Law

  (2:19 PM)

Yeah. I like ERA+ and OPS+, but they can be skewed for guys who played long after their peaks. Blyleven may have left his peak phase by 27 or 28, yet pitched another ~15 years.

KO (Pittsfield, MA)

Will Andrew McCutchen become a star or was he over-rated by scouts? Manual gave him a jab yesterday, but I disagree with him.

Keith Law

  (2:19 PM)

I still say he becomes a star. Too much natural ability to turn away from him.

Matt (Yardley, PA)

You "found it bleak and almost nihilistic and somewhat self-absorbed" when you were less than 14? I expect all I could've come up with is "kinda cool, but kinda lame."

Keith Law

  (2:20 PM)

I blame those abridged Moby Books. Started me on a lifelong addiction to classic literature.

Tim

What can you tell me about this Stevens kid from the DeRosa deal? Some say he could contribute in 'o9.

Keith Law

  (2:20 PM)

Good deception, will touch 94 but sit 90-91, would be surprised if he missed bats in the majors like he did in the minors this year.

Sam (NYC)

So if a guy hits .315 for the season, but hits .238 with RISP, there's nothing to be derived from that? Seems like a ridiculous notion.

Keith Law

  (2:22 PM)

What are you deriving from it? His RISP sample was probably small - A-Rod had 212 PA total with RISP, 166 AB.

Dave (Wayne, NJ)

Hi Keith! Perhaps you can explain how McGwire is a Hall of Famer, as I've never quite gotten it. I know it's taking just a three-year subsection of his career, but looking at his numbers in the middle of his career, in full years from 1989-91 he batted .231, .235 and .201., and while his OBPs in each of those years was in the mid .300s, those numbers just seem Kingman-esque to me. Meanwhile, he was injured most of 1993 and 1994, and didn't put up much in the way of numbers then either. Yes, he was a prodigious home run hitter - one can debate the hows and whys of that - but he seems awfully one-dimensional.

Keith Law

  (2:23 PM)

Hit for power and got on base. That's two dimensions, right? And he was among the best (during his peak) at hitting for power. Since we don't really know what andro does, and it wasn't banned by baseball when he took it, refusing to vote for him solely on PED grounds is just more look-at-me grandstanding from writers who were more than happy to cheer him and Sosa on while they were hitting.

JM (Cincy)

You make no sense. A guy who is able to concetrate in big spots will have more RBI's consistently. Guys like Eckstein and Erstad come to mind. Not great stats but come up big in the clutch.

Keith Law

  (2:25 PM)

Darin Erstad: Career OPS .746; career OPS w/RISP .745; career OPS w/RISP and 2 outs .692. Yeah, he really concetrated. Or maybe he just wasn't good in any situation.

del (cleveland, oh)

klaw whats your opinon on the tribes david huff and is he a future top of the rotation starter?

Keith Law

  (2:25 PM)

Mid-rotation, not top. Good changeup, good feel, velo has increased since he was drafted.

Sam (NYC)

WRONG! David Wright batted .302 for the season 626 AB's (187 AB's w RISP) - I believe 2nd most in the game, and he batted .238- I derive that he has a problem hitting when runners are on, whether it's the adjustments pitchers make in their approach, or him having a mental block.

Keith Law

  (2:28 PM)

Did you drink before you derived that? Wright, career: overall OPS .921, w/RISP .895. In 2007: overall .963, w/RISP .976. So ... is this a new mental block that Wright has? Or are you just ... WRONG?

jason (boston)

i think JM is klawbaiting, but if eckstein and erstad concentrated all the time, they'd be superstars!

Keith Law

  (2:28 PM)

Had that thought. Wasn't concetrate an FJMism?

Greg (NYC)

JM from Cincy KLaw... did he getcha, or did you just feel like answering it anyway?

Keith Law

  (2:29 PM)

I'll pay the $5. I genuinely wasn't sure. Erstad was the key ... Eckstein alone would have been obvious.

Andy, Brooklyn

What is your opinion on the Yankees' stadium financing controversy?

Keith Law

  (2:31 PM)

So it was 10% more underhanded than all of the other boondoggle stadium funding projects around the country. The voters of Pennsylvania rejected the state's plan to build 4 new stadia (two each in Pgh and Philly), and the government did it anyway (the Immaculate Deception). Sure, I hope the city officials who fudged the numbers are held accountable, but the money is already gone, and unless the Yankees are ordered to put it back, nothing else really matters out of this.

Rob (Alaska)

What's your take on Porcello's rather low K rate in the FSL last season?

Keith Law

  (2:32 PM)

Lot of groundballs. Might turn out to be a different style of pitcher than we thought, but he's still a potential ace.

JM (Cincy)

It was FJMism. Erstad was a punter at Nebraska and therefore played the game "hard" and was a true baseball player.

Keith Law

  (2:32 PM)

Well done, then.

Slew (Seattle)

Where does the Tribe's farm system rank?

Keith Law

  (2:32 PM)

I'll have a complete ranking with the top 100 package, as well as a few other things alongside it.

new Klaw 100 fan, the asylum

Thoroughly enjoyed Master and Margarita and 100 Years of Solitude. Where to next? Do you have any other magical/mystical realism titles to recommend?

Keith Law

  (2:33 PM)

Try Allende's House of the Spirits.

Mike, Modesto CA

Keith, Jim Rice finally gets in, but Albert Belle falls off the ballot after one year. These guys had very similar numbers, and you could argue that Belle in his prime was a much more "feared" hitter. In the words of Philip Seymour Hoffman, portraying Lester Bangs, "you have to be un-mercilessly honest, or what you're left with is an industry of cool". Is that what the hall is becoming? Objectively how do you compare the careers of Rice and Belle and have one guy get voted in and one guy get less than 2% of the vote?

Keith Law

  (2:34 PM)

The fundamental problem here is that we're asking a group of writers to do the work of analysts. What's the correlation here? Getting paid to watch and report on games, gathering quotes from players and coaches, digging up scoops on trades or transactions ... there's nothing there about evaluating players. Sure, some writers choose to immerse themselves in one method of evaluation or another, but by and large, we're asking the electorate to do something that they haven't been taught or trained to do, and sadly, there's a wing of the electorate that is out-and-out resistant to the rather obvious complaint that they're not very good at this evaluation stuff.

Sam (NYC)

I notice you didn't include 2008 . . . you know it's 2009, right? Good to be you. Why didn't you just go all the way and digup his stats from AAU ball, and totally avoid the point.

Keith Law

  (2:35 PM)

Amazing.

Nick (NJ)

Can you settle an argument: I tried to tell a friend that books like LOTR are stupid because the premise is entirely too unrealistic. They then brought up the Potter books. I said those would be at least readable because while obviously wizards are out there, it takes place in London and such - actual places. She didn't understand the difference.

Keith Law

  (2:37 PM)

I think you're wrong on this one. Premises can be unrealistic. Plots and characters and (especially) character actions should be realistic. The Man in the High Castle. Never Let Me Go. The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle. The Master and Margarita. Jonathan Strange and Mr. Norrell. All have unrealistic premises. All are classics.

Jim (Acton, MA)

Hello Keith, you use the 20-80 frequently (as do most scouts that I have read), but I have never seen an 80 rating... can you give me an example or two? Thank you.

Keith Law

  (2:39 PM)

I think I've mentioned Lindstrom's fastball as an 80 for velocity. I'd probably put an 80 on Webb's fastball movement. Howard's power is an 80, or Bonds in his clearest years. Maybe not right now, but Santana had an 80 changeup for a few years.

Pat (Belfast, PA)

Strange question, but I'll try anyway. From a sociological standpoint, it has always seemed to me that in order for new ideas to progress and become accepted, older generations hesistant to acknowledge and adapt to them have to die out first. Could this same pseudo-concept be applied to the BBWAA with their lack of support for guys like Raines?

Keith Law

  (2:40 PM)

In general, yes, it's true - the voting patterns of the BBWAA will change over time as the membership changes, not just due to, um, members shuffling off their mortal coils, but due to industry changes as well.

ajd (chicago)

Congrats, Nick in NJ, you've just invalidated the bulk of the corpus of western literature. Farewell, classics.

Keith Law

  (2:41 PM)

I just thought of a counterexample to my own argument. Jane Eyre has a realistic (more or less) premise, but hinges on one very unrealistic plot point.

Frank (NY)

Should HOF voting be based on anything other than stats?

Keith Law

  (2:41 PM)

Sure, I don't have a problem considering some intangible factors, but they can not be the entire story. Performance matters.

Joba (Bronx, NY)

You forgot to mention that my slider is an 80. Shame on you, Keith!

Keith Law

  (2:41 PM)

I put a 70 on it.

Meta (Atlanta, GA)

You ever read any Neal Stephenson? I recently finished the Baroque Cycle and Anathem, and I thought they were both pretty great.

Keith Law

  (2:42 PM)

Liked Snow Crash. Bit overlong in the middle.

Mark: Lyme

What is your take on the Sox signing Saito? 70% chance that he is a bust?

Keith Law

  (2:42 PM)

The Dodgers' trainers were optimistic that he wouldn't need surgery. If he's healthy, he should be good. I'd say no higher than 50% chance he's a bust.

Jack (Toronto)

In regards to Rice, you're missing the point of the HoF. Its for the fans to go see their heroes. Its for who the fans care about. And like it or not fans are still heavily influenced by the writers. So right or wrong fans thought Andre Dawson was a great player. And right or wrong fans would rather go see a display of him in the HoF than some under appreciated player who should be considered a better player if he played for the right team in the right park.

Keith Law

  (2:43 PM)

Then let the fans vote.

George (NY)

Did I read correctly recently that Jesus Montero grades an 80 power? Is that possible for an A Ball guy?

Keith Law

  (2:43 PM)

I didn't say that, and I would vehemently disagree with it.

Joe (Park Ridge, NJ)

Hey Keith...where do you stand on Edgar Martinez and the HOF? Granted he had no value whatsoever defensively, but his career OBP was .416 and he slugged over .500 a season numerous times in his career. If you were a voter, does his 8-10 years of offensive production get him in?

Keith Law

  (2:43 PM)

I'd say yes. I hate the idea that Seattle's incompetence (holding him in the minors till he was 27) is the main thing holding him back.

Rick (NY)

Could I get a link to your Top 100 Novels?

John (TX)

KLaw, of those books typically considered classics, what would be your 5 must reads?Rangers, 2010, any real shot at near 90 wins?

Keith Law

  (2:44 PM)

Google "klaw 100" for the book questions. I think 2011 for Texas and 90 wins, unless the pitching comes even faster than I expect.

Corey: (Kirksville, MO)

What is your take on Bret Wallace and his potential to stay at 3rd base? With Wallace in mind, has Pujols shown any signs of decline?

Keith Law

  (2:45 PM)

No signs of decline for Pujols, but I've always said that Wallace just needs to be about a -10 runs glove at 3b to be a very valuable player, because he's going to hit so well.

Chris (NJ)

Favorite type of chocolate to get at TJ's? I just finished a dark chocolate w/30% hazelnut bar. It was ok, but not dark enough.

Keith Law

  (2:46 PM)

There's a single-origin 72% dark from Ecuador that I really like.

Jeff (NYC)

You already answered that question from Joe about Edgar earlier in the chat. Who ends up playing CF for the Yanks this year?

Keith Law

  (2:46 PM)

Sorry, must have queued it up twice. We're over 2500 so far today. Damon. Not that that's ideal.

John (SEA)

OLA KLAW -- What is your fave Mexican restaurant in Seattle? I just moved here from LA, and .... d'oh.

Keith Law

  (2:47 PM)

Never had good Mexican there, but of course we lived there in '98 so I'm out of date. Loved the 5 Spot, Red Mill Burgers, Zeke's, and Caffe Ladro.

Nick (Seattle)

Maybe it's just me, but the whole "He tries harder when there are men on base" argument seems faulty. Shouldn't they try their hardest to get on base no matter who else is on base?

Keith Law

  (2:47 PM)

Of course.

Eric (NYC)

Hey KLaw. In "Tender is the Loin", AB sears the meat for a few minutes before putting it in the oven. What's the reasoning behind that as opposed to going right into the oven? Also, how much will Hamels get in arbitration this year? Does Howard's case have any bearing?

Keith Law

  (2:49 PM)

You get the Maillard reactions from direct application of heat to the outside of the meat (that is, browning the meat). You can't get those flavors from the oven. Hamels should set the record for a first-time eligible pitcher, but Howard's case won't have any effect. Pitchers aren't compared to position players, and even if they were, Howard's case was partly driven by his RoY and MVP awards.

Luis, Caracas, Venezuela

Since you are not answering my question about Galarraga, at least have the decency of learning about chocolate and buy chocolate with venezuelan cocoa (the best on the world). Chuao Chocolates from Verona, and El Rey chocolate are exceptional...

Keith Law

  (2:49 PM)

I discussed Galarraga above, and I have a rule that I will only answer one question twice each week. I don't care for El Rey - I use Callebaut for cooking.

Michael (CT)

Best pitching prospect not named David Price? Feliz? Hanson? Bumgarner?

Keith Law

  (2:49 PM)

Feliz.

Joe (DC)

Is it your assertion that total sallary dollars does not correlate to total wins? Have you tested this theory through a simple regression? I would guess the R squared is pretty significant, but then that detracts from the overall narrative of parity in baseball so is that why no one has done this?

Keith Law

  (2:51 PM)

I like that Joe has asked this question multiple times today, and asked last week, but never actually thought to test the theory himself. Better to wait a week and ask me to do it? Anyway, if you can figure out how to account for the fact that teams that don't expect to contend in a given year will often shed payroll to play younger players, I'd be interested in seeing the results. I've never said the null hypothesis holds, just that the degree of the correlation is wildly overestimated by people like Joe from DC.

Pat (Belfast, PA)

Hey Keith, you *are* the most feared chatter. Even if I can't prove it, I'll say it. Anyway, continuing on the salary cap talk, what's funnier about it: that it came from the guy whose team lost Sabathia to the Yankees, or from the guy whose team plays in the fourth largest city in the country? I pick the latter.

Keith Law

  (2:52 PM)

Logic goes right out the window when you're talking sports, doesn't it?

Keith Law

  (2:53 PM)

Thanks for all the questions. I'll be back next week at 1 pm to talk about the top 100 prospects, and will do a special chat in Spanish on ESPNDeportes.com that day at 4 pm.