Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some championship Sunday football!
Sid (Phoenix, AZ)
Hey KC, what is up with the vastly improved Arizona defense? How has Rodgers-Cromartie been?
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
I voted for DRC as the rookie of the year if that gives you any indication. He's been a combination of ballhawk and shutdown CB (6.6 YPA for the season and it got better as the season progressed).
Broad Street Brian (philly)
Hey KC, What with all the Cards fans? I have never seen a fan base so upset about how they are be perceived around the nation. Who cares about perception when you are still playing? You guys are making us Eagles fans look rational and grounded! Pretend like the Cards have been in a big game before, you haven't but pretend, OK? I never thought a fan base could be more annoying than the Cowboys but here we are. Geesh
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
I'm not sure what to say about Cards fans. The ones I've heard from are extremely happy to have their team suddenly have a chance to actually do something.
Who wins in a fight: Brian Dawkins, Adrian Wilson, Troy Polamalu, or Ed Reed? On a less important note, it's pretty incredible that those 4 incredible players are all still alive in the playoffs isn't it?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
It is the year of the safety from a playoff perspective, that's for sure. It just goes to show that safeties can help teams win games, not just keep them from losing games.
Looks like Jim Schwartz will be name the Lions head coach tomorrow, what's your take?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
He's a really sharp guy and a hard worker, so Detroit's getting a good coach. Their issue is in the personnel department, however, so unless they get that part of their team fixed, even Lombardi would be hard pressed to win there.
Dave (Novato, CA)
Hi KC, your info helped me win my fantasy league so thanks! Can you tell me any underrated WRs that could be taking the step to the next level.
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Steve Breaston would be a good choice. I'd also look for some of Atlanta's wideouts to take the next step.
Does the fight happen after they leave the tunnel and enter the field? If saw Dawk takes them all down. For the record, the weather in Philly is making me a little jealous of Lane...but just a little.
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
I hate to see fights on the field and the like but I'd pay to see a MMA fight between Dawkins and Wilson. Those two are legit tough guys. And since it was 40 degrees down here yesterday, I'm also jealous of anyone with good weather.
Broad Street Brian (philly)
How did Mangenius get a job before Rob Ryan? What are the Browns thinking?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
I had been on Rob Ryan's case early on in the Scientific Football series but I'm on his head coaching bandwagon. He did a very good job with the Raiders the past few years and if he hits a home run in Cleveland, he'll get a top spot in the near future.
What should the lions do with their #1 pick? Should they draft a quarterback like Stafford or Sanchez, draft a LT like Andre Smith, or trade down and draft Aaron Curry.
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
I agree on upgrading at LT but they need a QB so they should keep the top spot and get a franchise pick there.
Brian (Phoenix AZ)
Hey KC! What is your prediction for the outcome of the NFC Championship game? Not betting on it or anything...just curious. Most people are taking the Eagles in a close one. Mine: Cards 31 Iggles 24
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
I have to say that I'm 5-1 in picking non-Cards playoff games but 0-2 in picking their games, so I might not be the right guy to ask. Having said that, I think the Eagles CBs will shut Boldin down (he tends to do badly against good competition) and hold Fitz a bit more in check than he's been held in so far. I'd put Philly on the end of that 31-24 score.
whos your super bowl matchup
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Give me Pittsburgh-Philadelphia. An all Pennsylvania Super Bowl.
Is Asante Samuel just a gambler who looks for the big plays, or is he really a top 5 corner back? I feel the big plays would compensate for a higher YPA.
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Samuel used to be a ballhawk who was something of a coverage liability but not this year. His 6.1 YPA stands up against any ballhawker.
Do you feel that there might not be too much appeal to a Arizona-Baltimore Superbowl
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
The TV execs at NBC are praying it doesn't turn out that way. Those are two good ballclubs, mind you, and their success makes for an interesting story but the average fan won't be interested in Joe Flacco vs. Kurt Warner.
Zach (Bronx, NY)
Do you think Houston should make a play for Julius Peppers?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
With the level of talent they have on their D line, I'm not sure adding Peppers adds enough upside to justify the price. If I were them, I'd aim to upgrade the secondary first.
I know I wouldn't pay to see a Flacco vs Warner MMA.
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
The Seahawks Really struggles without Hass this year. Seems like some more play makers would do the trick. Since TE is Ok with Carlson, would you go RB WR or OL for the Seahawks?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
I'd probably go O line. The Hawks have a history of developing wideouts but their O line has had holes in it for years now. That should be their top priority.
As a Cards fan, I have found all the recent Eagles hype...interesting. Short of a couple games at the end of the season, I haven't seen the dominant team that people are talking about. I would consider them much like the Cards - hot, but not consistent enough to start talking about a "sure" victory. What do you think?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
The thing about the Eagles is that they have been doing pretty much everything well for about six weeks now. Their O line is run blocking and pass blocking with success (and they aren't usually good at run blocking). Their CBs are both playing at a shutdown level (Brown has a 4.2 YPA) and they are stuffing the run. They can win in any way they need to and that's why I give them the slight edge over Arizona.
$Mof$ (Butler, NJ)
What up KC? You talked about Rex Ryan before...as a Jets fan, you think that's the reason we haven't hired a coach yet? I think he's our guy...
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
He's been getting some play in the NY media and he's a defensive coach (something the Jets seem to like) so it would not be a surprise if they were waiting for Baltimore's season to come to a close to name their coach.
Houslton seems to be a team in need of D-back, but they impact players maybe front 7 based when they draft. Would you rather take a LB or DB for them. A pass rusher could hide the sins of the back end.
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
As much as I'm for a good D lineman or LB, I still stick with the Texans needing a CB or S, more specifically a ballhawk. If memory serves me correct, they had only 12 picks last year and their near interception total was also low (I know it was less than 20, which is the midpoint for teams in that metric). They need someone who can help them turn that metric around.
Hey Clint, one of the times I seen that dominant team was against the Cardinals!
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
If the Cards were playing in Philly for this one, I might think there could a repeat of that first game, but they do play well at home.
Dee (Greenville, NC)
What's your take on all the LT talk? I seriously don't see him being released or traded, but I understand why there is talk.
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
The Chargers are probably looking at this from the perspective of LT getting a bit up there in years and wondering if they are going to have a Shaun Alexander situation on their hands (i.e. big paycheck to a banged up elite RB). They are a Super Bowl caliber club and as much as I like Sproles, I think they are going to need two RBs to make a run next year, so they should keep LT unless they get a killer offer they can't refuse.
Chuck (San Jose)
Would the Texans consider their 1st, 3rd and a starting OL for Nnamdi?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
As much as I like Nnamdi, I wouldn't suggest doing that. Asomugha is a great cover CB but I don't think he's enough of a ballhawk to justify that kind of price.
How do you think Flacco will perform in his first AFC title game? The Ravens Defense will do there part and it will be on him to make plays, do you agree?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Flacco's been great in many ways this year. His vertical passing since week 7 has been nothing short of phenomenal (he's in double digits, which is a very good total in that area). His issue is that he does make bad decisions when he is forced to pass too often and Pittsburgh is darn good at getting QBs to make mistakes.
Chuck (San Jose)
Nnamdi had 8 picks a year ago, this year, no one threw at him. just saying....
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Chuck, don't get me wrong, I think Nnamdi is a dominant, fantastic CB. I wouldn't knock the Texans a bit for going for him but if they don't get someone else in their secondary who can make picks, teams will Nnamdi and they'll be in something of the same boat pick wise. Another way to put it is that they might need two quality CBs.
If Kurt Warner were to win another Superbowl, would he get a shot at the Hall of Fame? He would have two rings, a Superbowl MVP, a league MVP, a career 93.8 QB rating and a 65% completion rate. I know his yards and TD?s don?t look too impressive, but I think he would have a shot at it.
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
I'd say yes if it weren't for a study I did on Jim Plunkett in my book Blindsided. It looked at QBs with two championships and found that wasn't a shoo-in for HOF induction.
Ryan (San Diego)
Who is the best qb from the 2004 draft class? Rivers has the best numbers but the only one without a ring, although in my biased opinion, they were helped A LOT by good D and run game
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
If Ben wins another title this year, it has to be him at this point.
As per Samuel being a gambler a) The coaches probably put him up to it, knowing them. And B) it seems to happen when they plan to roll safeties that way. Its a worthwhile gamble. On the other side, does anyone see mcnabb coughing it up 6 times? He is one of the least intercepted ever.
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
I've got to say that Samuel's coverage improvement is something quite unexpected. He had the Pats zone protecting him before this year and always had a YPA in the 7-9 range and then Philly puts him on an island and he turns into a 6 YPA guy. That's impressive on many levels.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
KC, do your analyses tell you anything about the issues in Dallas on offense? Guys like Owens and Romo have said Garrett's schemes are weak, but now I'm hearing the problem with the offense is that Owens isn't happy. I'm inclined to think with all that talent coaching is more of a problem than one guy being vocal in displeasure. Any thoughts? Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
One of the Boys issues is Roy Williams. His best years came when he had a coach getting on him all the time (Mike Martz) and I'm not sure Dallas has a coach of that temperament.
Kurt Warner has 2 MVPs , no?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
I believe that is correct and it does separate him from two SB champ QBs like Jim Plunkett (although I do think Plunkett should be in Canton despite the lack of MVPs).
Chris (Bay Area)
Stop the presses!!! Homer Ryan admits to being biased!! Ryan doesn't think Rivers was helped out by a good run game? What about padding stats against horrible teams like the Raiders and Chiefs 4 games a year. Rivers is good, but c'mon, don't put him in the HOF just yet, Homer.
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
I'd be with you on the Rivers bashing, Chris, but my scouting and metric eyes both agree Rivers had his best season ever. He still hasn't won more than a Wild Card game, though (and don't give me the argument that he won the Indy game - Volek did that) and that's going to stick to him like it did to Peyton Manning until he remedies it.
Dave R (AZ)
How important will scheming be for the NFC game? from a fans perspective it seems like both the Falcons and Panthers were badly beaten in the coaching battle. Both AZ coordinators are highly regarded scheme wise...how important is that vs the players them selfs?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
I think scheming will be incredibly important as it relates to getting Anquan Boldin in the game. I did a study in Scientific Football 2008 that showed Boldin completely disappears against top level CBs and Philly has two of them. Arizona will only have a one-headed passing attack if they can't get Boldin away from Brown or Samuel.
Ben (Carrollton, GA)
How much of an impact would Albert Haynesworth have on the Atlanta Falcons defense?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
I've done some studies on Haynesworth over the years and I'm of the mindset that he's the best under DT in the NFL hands down. He's a bear on POA runs and has a huge impact on the pass game (the Titans D isn't the same when he isn't in there against the pass).
By your numbers how have Rolle, Washington and Walker looked for the Ravens. With C-Mac is as good as gone, I can see us spending an early round pick on a corner. Are the numbers for the other 3 strong enough for the Ravens to fill a need at WR or DE first instead of CB?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Rolle has been on a tear and has a 4.5 season long YPA in the 13 Baltimore games I've broken down. He's someone Pitt will want to avoid on Sunday but given how badly Washington has played this year (8.9 YPA), I think the Ravens have to look at CB in the offseason.
KC, is it good or bad for the NFL for the Cardinals to be in the Super Bowl?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
If it is truly indicative of a turnaround for the franchise (i.e. that they do place a high value on winning), it's a great thing for the league. If it's just a convergence of circumstance and they go back to being what they were before this year, I'd rather see them not make it.
Dave (Bay Area)
Any chance the Raiders could convince Haynesworth to sign?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
After the Tommy Kelly deal, I don't know that they could afford Haynesworth, especially if they are able to sign Asomugha.
KC - Was the wind really a factor in the way the ball was coming out of Eli's hands on Sunday or did he revert back to poor mechanics? Some of his throws were the worst I've ever seen from a professional.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
I'm thinking it was a bit of both. He never really completely fixed the accuracy issue and once he lost Burress, I think that weakness in his game came to the fore.
Do you think that Champ Bailey's production fall off was all the result of injuries or do you think he's lost it?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
I'd say injuries but his situation does remind me a bit of Ty Law's. Law was the best CB in the NFL in 2003 and a couple of years later was bouncing around the league because of injuries. I'd lean towards Bailey making it back to dominant but there's a 20% chance his All-Pro days are over.
Do you think Albert Haynesworth would be as effective in a 3-4 scheme?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
He'd be dominant in any scheme but his best value has to be at under tackle. I'd love to see him go somewhere with a really strong NT and see what kind of numbers he could put up in that scenario. It might be 1972 Alan Page like.
Are the Raiders able to franchise tag Asomugha again, or is there something that prevents a team from franchising a player 2 years in a row?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
As I understand it, Oakland could put the franchise on him but the price for putting a franchise tag on a guy two years in a row is much higher than the first franchise year. They would be better off signing him to a deal, as it would cost too much to do the 2nd franchise.
I didn't realize the difference between Rolle and Washington was that big. That's huge. That can't just be talent can it.
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
Washington didn't do much in Oakland and his numbers in Baltimore are identical. It's a simple matter that he isn't good in coverage.
Hey KC appreciate all you do. Can you give me an idea of what sort of metrics the Minn. secondary put up this year. Sharpers leavin and Johnson showed me very little, do they NEED a FA CB?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Griffin and Winfield both had really good YPAs (Griffin 6.8, Winfield 5.6) so they are set from a starting CB standpoint. The question is whether they have the right #3 but I don't know how much they should invest in FA to try to fix that. I'd say yes but not a their top priority.
Any chance Flacco is the next Big Ben?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Absolutely. He and Ryan are going to be competing for championships for a decade if injuries don't crop up.
Dave (Bay Area)
I agree, that ridiculous Kelly deal will haunt them for a while...javon and Kwame Harris' too....good times.
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
I've had many posters remind me of the DeAngelo Hall deal as well. The funny thing is Oakland actually does a good job overall of collecting talent but they sure do pay too much to the wrong guys at times.
Greg (Grand Rapids)
KC, how much stronger in YPA was DeAngelo Hall moving from Oakland to Washington?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
He was a completely different CB. I had him with a 3.9 YPA in limited playing time in Washington, which is less than half of what he put up in Oakland.
KC, been a while but i couldnt be happier to be chatting about the cards right now (and not about their draft). Just a quick comment way back in the chat about the card fans and their lack of respect talk. Its one thing for these media members to pick against them and say they are average. Its downright disrespectful for guys like deon sanders to say he would sell his superbowl tickets if they made it b/c essentially they are a disgrace to the superbowl. But whatever not even neon deon can rain on my parade
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
I will say this about Arizona. They may not be the high profile team but take a look at the big names players on their roster - Fitz, Boldin, Warner, Wilson, Edge, DRC. Those are some really good players (or at least Edge is a known player) and the Cards have some good relative unknowns as well (with Dockett topping that list). From a football perspective, they would be a good representative for the NFC.
Do you think DRC has the potential to be a shutdown corner like many experts are predicting?
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
I mentioned his great YPA earlier in the chat and that number was a big improvement on what he had posted early in the year. He's a shutdown CB right now. Well, dinner is almost ready so I've got to run. Hope to see you all next week to talk some Super Bowl!