Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...

Brian (Denver)

What kind of numbers do you see for Tulo in his bounce back year after his sophomore slump??

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Right now I've got him projected for somewhere around a .280 batting average, a little short of 20 homers, maybe 90 runs and 75 RBIs. In short, a pretty good rebound year. I like him.

Phil (Grand Rapids, MI)

Tristan...can you rank the following pitchers in a dynasty league (i'll try and put them in order). Mean Mr. Hunter wouldn't answer it yesterday or today. Hamels Liriano Beckett Lackey Garza Cain Scherzer Verlander

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Hey, "Mean Mr. Hunter" probably just got a lot of questions! I'm sure I'll miss a few, there are so many and so few minutes to tackle 'em. Please understand! At any rate, if it's a dynasty league, I'll go Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Max Scherzer, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Justin Verlander, Matt Garza, Matt Cain.

Jarrett (Flemington, NJ)

Tristan, what are your expectations for Kershaw and Scherzer this season? Big jump in fantasy value or a bumpy 2nd year before breaking out in '10?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

I think Max Scherzer is a bit more likely to break out this year than Clayton Kershaw is. Kershaw is a young kid, and sometimes guys like him take a few years to really hit their groove. Not that I'd avoid him, but I won't call for his breakout until 2010. Scherzer, there's real potential for a noticeable step forward.

Tony, East Hanover

Hi Tristan. Evan Longoria for Johan Santana in a keeper league - would you do it? I usually prefer to keep the bat.

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Depends entirely on your chances to win. If getting an ace like Johan Santana is the kind of move that will put you over the top, then it makes sense. Otherwise, in a keeper league, especially a long-term one, I see that as fairly dead even. And I agree, I usually keep the franchise hitter.

Jon (Phoenix)

Votto or Loney in 2009?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Joey Votto. I believe. Look at his minor league numbers. He's remarkably consistent. No doubt in my mind he can bat about .300 with 25 homers, and I feel pretty safe saying that.

Neal (SD)

Lackey or Lester as my pitching keeper? Go Steelers!

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Another case of "win-now" versus "win-later," because John Lackey will be ranked higher by me for 2009. If it's 2009-11, then Lester's higher on my list.

Chris (Philly)

Would you keep Liriano over hitters like Hart, Furcal, Pence? I am keeping Kemp, Pujols, A.Gonzo, and Soriano. I know hitters are usually better to keep, but Liriano's potential seems too good to pass up. Thoughts?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

I sure would. Not a lot of hesitation in my decision either. Your hitting core is strong enough to take this chance.

Nate (Charlottesville)

Hey Tristan, I need to keep one between Soriano and Lincecum. Who gets the nod? Thanks.

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Tim Lincecum. Again, a clear call to me.

Tim (Los Angeles, CA)

Tristan, In what round would Alexei be considered a steal? Thanks.

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

I have to map out the specific rounds to be honest, Tim, but to estimate it today, I'd say if he's available in the seventh round I'd define that a steal. I'm not the biggest Alexei Ramirez fan because of his shaky plate discipline, and how it presents a steep downside for him, but there's significant power upside in him as well, especially in that park. Ranking him around, say, 70th overall seems appropriate. So if he gets past that pick, he could be a steal.

tripp,SC

what will robinson cano's stats be like next year? what about raul ibanez and brad hawpe?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:12 AM)

I don't see any other question about Cano than his approach to the game, because I believe he's a legit .300 hitter when he's focused. No denying his talent. So I'm going to say, right now, before seeing his approach during spring training, that he's going to bat about .300 with just short of 20 homers, and a healthy number of RBIs in that lineup. Ibanez is a consistent .290-hitting, 25-homer, 100-RBI guy. Can't really argue against those numbers in Philly. And I'll say about a .290 average, 25 homers but maybe 10-15 fewer RBIs for Hawpe than Ibanez will have.

Chase (not Utley)

Did Matt Wieters just lose his starting role to Zaun? He was my big sleeper!

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

He will be everyone's "big sleeper," so much so that I doubt he'll truly qualify for "sleeper" status. I look at Gregg Zaun as a veteran who can ease Wieters into the role gradually. Even if it means a Triple-A start to his season. Right now I'd project Wieters being up on June 1, and hitting exceptionally well for a rookie from that point on. So he's just outside my top 10 catchers.

Justin (Queens, NY)

Hey Tristan, 18 team-keeper-all stats count. I keep 3 from D.Lee, B.Phillips, Atkins, C.Guillen, Ichiro, Hart, Harang. Who do I roll with? THX.

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

Ichiro Suzuki and Brandon Phillips, because of his position and homer/steal ability, are definite keepers to me. I'd make Garrett Atkins my No. 3, if only because he's a fairly safe .300-25-100 type (maybe slightly beneath each of those projections) and qualifies at both corner infield spots.

Joe (Akron)

With 10 games for position eligibility, would you consider drafting Ian Stewart at 2B and/or Pablo Sandoval at Catcher? Good strategy, or over thinking?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

I'd take Sandoval because he's more likely to be in the Opening Day lineup, not that I'm expecting him to catch the 10 games he'll need before maybe mid-May, if that soon. He's almost assuredly going to be the everyday third baseman, barring a horrific spring.

Jake (VA Beach)

24 for comeback player of the year! Also, Lost was great as ever. Man, with FBB, I'm gonna have no life!

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

I like the season so far, but five episodes. Still a long way to go! TiVoed Lost. So don't spoil me!

Steiny (NYC)

How much do you think Felix Pie will contribute to the Orioles?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

He'll get a looooooong look in the spring, and part of it is his skill on defense. If he's not in the Opening Day lineup, it won't be because of his talent ... it'll be because the Yankees are throwing CC Sabathia. Pie will start every game against righties in left field, just watch. It'll make him a late, late sleeper.

Steiny (NYC)

A little off topic, but what are your thoughts on the retirement of Jeff Kent? Do you think he is a future HOF?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

I always liked Jeff Kent, partly because he helped a lot of my fantasy teams win titles over the year. A tremendously underappreciated hitter. In my mind yes, he is a Hall of Famer.

Wilson (Oak Island)

Yo Tristy, How much better is Carlos Lee than Matt Kemp?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

Well, Lee will hit you 30 home runs with 100 RBIs, and Kemp only might do that. To me it's the difference between a top-10 outfielder, and maybe one just outside the top 10. So it's a few rounds, maybe two or so, but not a huge difference.

Zach (PA)

I know that pitchers are more highly valued in h2h points leagues, but would you take a pitcher with the third pick in the draft in a new 16 team h2h dynasty league? If So, Which pitcher would that be?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

I would not take a pitcher that high, period. Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez and David Wright are far too smart selections in a dynasty league to pass up for a pitcher, even one like Tim Lincecum. And by the way, if it's a dynasty league, Lincecum is close enough in 2009 value to Johan Santana that there's no question I'm taking him as the first pitcher overall, and in the mid-first round.

Mike (Indy)

Does anyone else really suck at Streak for the Cash? Any pointers for us? Thanks!

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

I've had my losing streaks too, Mike. It happens. Fun game, though. Best way to win: Build a time machine.

Justin (Queens, NY)

Thoughts on Marcum...stellar year until he got hurt. Does he continue to improve?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

He was slated for Tommy John surgery around the end of this past season, which is almost assuredly going to cost him all of 2009. It's a shame, because I liked Shaun Marcum quite a bit. Talented arm, a big surprise the past couple of years. We will check back on him in 2010, for sure.

Ben (Bay Area)

What type of numbers are you expecting from Pablo Sandoval this year? Is he for real?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

I want to return to the Sandoval issue because he's a curious case indeed. Very few minor league numbers to build a projection off, and any system I run has him being practically a .300-25-100 kind of hitter. So I won't say that he can't do that, but it'd be a real challenge for him to. More likely, he'll do something like bat .280 and hit 20 homers, which is still a solid rookie. Problem is, in most leagues, he's not going to qualify at catcher initially, and he'd be quite the sleeper if he did. I love those catcher eligibles who play elsewhere.

Joe (Akron)

TRISTAN - I should have been more clear about Stewart and Sandoval. Since those players played at those positions respectively 10+ Games in '08, they qualify at those positions for '09. Would you consider drafting them late to play 2B/C for this year? What's your take on their numbers if you "Can" play them at 2B/C?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

If he can catch, then it's not even a debate to me.

Chris (Prague, CZ)

Do you see Jeter as a top-3 SS this year? I'd tend to think he's on the decline, but that Yanks line-up should inflate his numbers... Right?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

No, Jeter is actually No. 5 for me at shortstop, but thank the Yankee lineup for its likelihood of keeping him around 100-105 runs scored with maybe 70 RBIs. That will eliminate any concern of a downward trend in his batting average, power or speed. To be clear, though, Jeter is in decline. It's not steep, but he's headed in the wrong direction.

Ryan, NYC

A-rod or Albert

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

About a month ago I was feeling like it was Alex Rodriguez, then I carefully looked at Albert Pujols ... and changed my mind. Barring some bad health news on the Cards slugger, my mind will not change again this preseason. It's Pujols, the best Triple Crown candidate in baseball.

Matt (Cleveland, Ohio)

Where do you project David Price going in the '09 draft?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

He'll go in the 10th-to-12th round but should go in more like the 18th, though I say that because he's not guaranteed a rotation spot. I'd say he's a strong bet for one, but there is no absolute guarantee being made for him yet.

John (NY)

Tristan - When Utley first revealed the hip problem everyone said he'd be out until the AS Break. Now I'm hearing mid-April. He's my keeper so I need to know which is it? Thanks!

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

I'd anticipate closer to mid-April, and had never heard an estimate that had him out until mid-July. The worst I heard was maybe June 1 early on. From what I understand, Utley's surgery went well, he's on track, and it's not impossible that he'd be in the Opening Day lineup. But I'm saying right now, he's on the DL to begin the year, and activated on the 16th day of the regular season. That's just my feel as of today.

Andy (NY)

Who will be the best long-term: Votto, Pence or Tulo?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

For fantasy I think it's going to be Joey Votto, because his hitting upside is greatest of the bunch. Troy Tulowitzki, because of his position, might have a better year than Votto a couple of times in their careers. And he'll without a doubt be the better pure baseball player, because of his defense.

Ricardo (Porto, Portugal)

Do you think Lastings Milledge has any shot of continuing his hot late season form to be a legit OF this year?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

I do. I see Milledge being a very good regular, though probably never an All-Star (barring squeaking onto that roster because of the stupid rule about having to have every team represented). He'll be in my top 40 outfielders, which means he'll be drafted in every league.

Hurley

Any word on K.Escobar? He went from 20 wins, got injuried and lost last season.Any chance he returns to form?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Hurley, the very fact you put your name with Kelvim Escobar's in the same sentence pretty much guarantees he's out for the year. You're cursed, right? That's what I've gathered these past four seasons. Anyway, the real answer is that Escobar is coming off major shoulder surgery, and the Angels doubt he'll be ready before the All-Star break. And a timetable like that means there's a very good chance we won't see him at all this year. If you count on even a half-season from the guy, you're probably setting yourself up for disappointment.

Joey (Richmond, VA)

Kevin Slowey projections for '09? What kind of auction value?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

Big Slowey fan, I am. He's in my top 30 starting pitchers, and is a monster in the WHIP category. Like a Brad Radke type, but I'm thinking the one from earlier in his career. You might get him for, say, $5 in a mixed auction league but he'll offer you $12-15 worth of value.

Bob (Williamsburg, VA)

Where does Burrell fall in your OF ranks for leagues that use OBP instead of BA?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Much higher, I can tell you that. Probably 15 spots higher. A bold call on Burrell in these formats: I look at him and Carlos Quentin and see practically no difference other than maybe 15 runs scored. And yes, that is designed to be a little damning of Quentin.

Caleb (Philly)

Milledge or A Jones?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

Interesting choices here. I'll take Milledge; I see him being a little closer towards realizing his full potential.

Bob (Williamsburg, VA)

Ervin Santana's '09 seems like it's already forgotten if pre-season rankings I've seen are anything to go by. Where do you put him among SPs?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

He's 12th for me. He's about as good as you can get without going all the way and calling him a legitimate top-10 pitcher. That bump up in his strikeout rate was an extremely promising sign.

Jeff (Breaux Bridge)

Do you think Brad Penny is a good fit with Bos?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

Sure, but I've never been a Penny fan. He's not durable enough to put together more than what, two or three elite months of production? Only once in his entire career has he lasted a full year as a fantasy force. To me, that's a matchups/streaks pitcher, not one you want as a regular, one of your top five starters. Won't be in my top 50, that's for sure.

Wil (Wilmington, NC)

Tristan, Billingsley or Ervin Santana?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

I have them almost dead even. Both top 15. Santana gets the slight edge here.

Joe (NY)

Which late round closers do you like the most?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

Frank Francisco stands out, thanks to his K rate and that strong lineup providing leads for him to protect. Jason Motte is an early sleeper. Nice track record. He'll be in the mix in St. Louis.

Sean (Houston)

Where do you think Andy Pettite will end up this season

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

New York. The Yankees will eventually decide to remain loyal to him.

Brian (Tuscon, AZ)

How close is Scherzer to Santana?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Not, but that's more because I don't see any way Scherzer is coming within even 40 innings of Santana. They could have identical rates but that innings difference is what will keep Scherzer a few tiers lower.

Brian (Boston)

How much do you expect Shoppach to play this year? 70 games? 130 games?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

Games is much less relevant to Kelly Shoppach's value than at-bats. I think he'll get exactly 50 percent of the Indians' catcher at-bats. So let's say about 300. Draft accordingly.

Ryan (PA)

Where do you think Manny ends up? I have to decide if I want to keep Ethier this year. He hit niceley last year in front of Manny.

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

I think he'll end up back in Los Angeles if only because of a lack of better options. I don't think it risky to project based on him being back there. It was a good fit late last year, and should still be one in 2009.

Mojo (Durham, NC)

Furcal seems to have a long injury history. What's the over and under on Games He'll Start in 2009?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

I'll say about 115 is a good over/under. It's the only reason I won't call him a top-five shortstop.

Manning (Philly)

If Tristan and Manning threw on a radar gun, would Tristan top Manning's awesome 71mph? What do you think of Hafner in '09?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

I don't have any idea, but I'd bet no, because I messed up my shoulder a few years back. Not that I've really tested it out on a radar gun. I'm somewhat pro-Travis Hafner for 2009, actually. He's going to be cheap, and the knock I have on him is I think the batting average won't come back. The power, though, should. I'd draft expecting maybe .250-25 numbers, but there's .260-30 upside. He's not what he was in his prime, though, to be clear.

Caleb (Philly)

Is Manny a rock solid 3rd rounder in a standard draft this year?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

Yes. Or at least very close to it.

Frank (New York, NY)

Does your thought that the Yanks will keep Pettitte say volumes that they are not comfortable with Hughes, so that even if they don't sign Pettitte, should we be wary of Hughes?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

I don't think they should be comfortable with Phil Hughes in the rotation, at least not as a guaranteed starter. Competition can be a good thing. Besides, I also like the idea of opening up the option for Joba Chamberlain to work in relief. I know I'll take heat for that, but I still firmly believe it's smarter to groom him to close, because I think it'd keep him healthier over the long haul. You can't keep bouncing him back and forth.

Harvey (Boston, MA)

What do you see the Patriots doing with Matt Cassel? None of the football guys know and you've got lots of answers!!

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

They're going to franchise him and then try to trade him, presumably. Though it wouldn't entirely shock me to see no one bite on a deal, and Cassel being the Pats' Week 1 starter as Tom Brady works back to full health. I think Matt Cassel is better than a 90 percent bet to be in the Week 1 lineup somewhere.

Chris (Prague, CZ)

You mentioned some young kid as closer in St Louis. Does that mean Chris Perez and Carpenter are out in your mind?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Nope, I'm just tossing a sleeper name out there. That will be an open competition, and knowing Tony La Russa's taste for veterans, talk that Chris Carpenter will be a candidate to close should be taken very seriously. If I had to pick today, I'd say it's 50 percent likely Perez is the Opening Day closer, 35 Jason Motte, 15 Carpenter.

Oaks (LI)

would you take Cano before or after the 10th?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Before. I believe.

Chris (LA,CA)

TC, in a standard $260 auction league, how much do you like to spend in total on your middle infielders? 2b, ss, and MI?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

I don't price positions, to be honest, but I can say from my experience that you are not going to win your league spending less than $30 total on those three positions. It's awfully difficult to get "hits" on all three picks that cost you in single-digit dollars in the middle infield.

Rob: Minneapolis

Is Josh Hamiliton a late 1st rounder?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

I won't be ranking him as such, but as a Hamilton fan, I will not laugh at you for taking him that high. He went from some DL time in his rookie year to playing all of his sophomore year but wearing down a little down the stretch. It's not crazy to think that the next step is a full, healthy, consistent season. And if that's true, he could have a huge year.

Jeff, Il

Do you think the Yanks regret using Joba in the bullpen to start his MLB career? The success he had there has now made it harder for them in the media to carry out their long term plan for him in the starting rotation. At least that is the way it appears to me...

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

I doubt they really regret it, but if they do, I bet only with regard to the fact that he got hurt last season.

Joe (NY)

I dont know T, if Hafner gets hurt which is likely I could see Shoppach getting some time at DH.

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Victor Martinez would almost assuredly DH, with Shoppach catching, in that case. I'm not saying there isn't the upside for Shoppach to bat 450 times, but if I'm drafting today, projecting 300 at-bats is smartest.

Matt (Texas)

What do you project for Chris Davis this season?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

I'm a huge Davis fan. That guy has ridiculous power. I'm going to put his name into the same sentence as Ryan Howard's as comparables go, not that I'm saying he is Ryan Howard, but it's not unthinkable that that's where he tops out. Problem is, he's a whiff king and doesn't walk a lot, so his downside is a lot greater than Howard's. You could get a .270 batting average and 40 homers ... or a .250 and 25, and some dreadful slumps. I will absolutely take the chance on that upside, though, because it's top-25-overall upside if he pans out. Plus, he qualifies at third base.

Sean (Boston)

THC, you said in a previous chat that you would keep Kemp over Rollins. Can I have some of what you're smoking?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

That could have been taken out of context for all I know, because I can say with absolutely no doubt that I would keep Matt Kemp over Jimmy Rollins if it was a long-term keeper league. Plus, if it was a matter of being asked about a number of guys, pick three, for instance, that matters in a decision like this.

Randy: (SLC)

Buzzer Beater!! Pick One: Hart, Granderson, Kemp, McLouth, Markakis

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

Nick Markakis. He stands out by far.

Mike (MN)

What kinda numbers do you see coming from Chris Dickerson this year?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

I think, barring a complete meltdown in that outfield, that Dickerson is going to spend a third of 2009 in the minors, at least. I'm not a fan.

Manning (Philly)

Manning is certain you could top 70mph in spite of the shoulder. Manning is old, too. Ethier or Hart in '09?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:06 PM)

Corey Hart, but these guys are close. I do like Andre Ethier.

Mike (MN)

How well do you see the Marlins SP Josh Johnson doing this year (provided he stays healthy)?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:06 PM)

Big fan, if you read my 2009 predictions piece a few weeks back. He was the big-time sleeper I listed. If he's healthy enough to start 30 times -- and I think he will be -- he can win 14 of them, have a low-threes ERA, good WHIP, solid K rate.

Timm (Ny)

in my fantasy keeper league i traded Nady for Cain, good move?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:07 PM)

Sure, though I'm a little skeptical about Matt Cain ever reaching the ceiling scouts predicted for him in the minors. He hasn't really shown a lot of growth in his big-league time.

Hopeless (Seattle)

Morrow: Closer or Starter? How useful in fantasy in either role?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:08 PM)

Starter. He'll crack my top 50 in that role, probably. But not much higher, because he could be a real problem in the WHIP category.

David (Houston, TX)

What numbers should we expect from Jay Bruce this year?

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:09 PM)

I think he has bona fide 30-plus-homer power this season. The Reds will need to generate runs, and I think he'll try to step up to help there, even if it means trading batting average for home runs. If he bats, say, .265 with 35 homers, I won't be shocked. Not that you'll need to draft him at that price.

Tristan Cockcroft

  (12:09 PM)

OK folks, lunch calls, but it's been fun, and thank you for all your questions! Sorry if I couldn't get to yours, so many as always. Take care!