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Brendan Roberts

  (3:00 PM)

Good afternoon, everyone! I'm back after a one-week hiatus in which I was in our rankings discussion. That's right, we're gearing up to hit you with baseball from all sides. Let's get to the chat.

Chet (LA)

Brenden, is it possible that Chris Davis ends the year as a top-20 1B in all of baseball? I'm looking to fill other spots and plug him in as my starting 1B. Your thoughts on Davis?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:01 PM)

There might be no other player that was disputed more heavily thatn Davis (in said rankings discussion). Scouts and onlookers say he could hit 35-plus homers as soon as this season, and he'll have the chance to. Others says it's WAY too early to tell. Which side do I fall on? The former. Yes, prodigious power from this kid, and a great ballpark. I see him finishing as a top 20 first baseman ... and third baseman.

Robert from Dallas

I was listening to the Podcast and they said at ESPN there are 3 camps for the number 1 pick. Arod, Hanley and Pujols. Why isn't David Wright at least mentioned in the conversation? His numbers are very comparable to all of the others.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:05 PM)

Wright's dip in steals last season hurts him there. He doesn't do anything extraordinarily well. His RBIs and runs are great, but tougher to make a difference in those categories. A-Rod does everything well, and a few categories a little better, and Hanley does about everything well. And Pujols has the average. The guy I still think should also be considered, at least at No. 3, is Jose Reyes. But he's safer at 4. Wright is "right" there, but not quite to that above class. I'm afraid he'll settle in as a 10-steal-per -sesason guy.

David Fairborn, OH $

Dont' really do Fantasy BB, but wanted to thank "the mayor" sean casey for a good career and his time in Cincinnati.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:05 PM)

Well, I'm sure he's a fan of this chat. Seriously, I agree ... never got the credit he deserved for his "good years." Solid all-around.

Brandon (Boston, MA)

Out of the top players who are the biggest avg killers? Howard, Sizemore, Braun?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:06 PM)

Definitely Howard. I think we have him projected to hit like .246 or something. Funny how people are so down on Adam Dunn, and yet Howard is turning into the same type of player (perhaps with a little more pop).

Thomas (Seattle, WA)

Who will have a better season, upstart Matt Kemp, or Carl Crawford?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:07 PM)

I like 'em both, but I think Crawford returns to typical "Crawford-like" levels, which includes 45-plus steals. That's enough to make him the slight winner between these two.

Michael, (Milwaukee, WI)

is Matt Gamel going to make any noise this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:08 PM)

I'd like to see it, but I doubt he will. If at all, it'll be late, and it'd be from a platoon role.

Brad (Rhode Island)

Expectations for Chone Figgins this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:10 PM)

Another "hot-button" player. The steals are nice -- he should be good for 40-plus again -- and I'm not worried about his durability, but if he's not hitting .300-plus or qualifying at second base and/or the outfield, he's more of an early-mid-round guy to me/us. That said, because of his disappointing 2008 season, a handful of people might be down on him, allowing you to get him at a "bargain" level.

Phil (Grand Rapids, MI)

Brendan...if Ellsbury bats leadoff and can steal 60 bases with 12-15 homers (which I view as very attainable) this year, what is the difference between him and Reyes, other than position eligibility?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:12 PM)

Good question, but you more or less answered it yourself. First of all, the position eligibility is so huge; having a shortstop that can do what Reyes can do is so priceless because you can fill your power numbers with outfielders and corner infielders easier. The second thing you said is "if." Right now that's all we have with Jacoby (although I also think he has that capability), whereas with Reyes the correct word is "does" steal 60 bases ... Don't get me wrong; I like Ellsbury more than maybe anyone on our staff, though.

joe (brooklyn, ny)

what are your thoughts on justin verlander? a quick check indicates that his stats weren't THAT different than 2006. for instance, fourteen more hits (181 in 2007 vs 195 in 2008) over the same number of innings and 32 starts is less than one hit every two starts. thanks.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:16 PM)

Yes, a good point, Joe. But he also had 20 more walks. and another batter per inning can make a big difference. For instance, his WHIP jumped from 1.23 to 1.40. I just think something is still wrong with him mechanically. He seems to be overcompensating for a slight drop in velocity by overthrowing, and that's a bad thing. It could lead to either an arm injury or continued wildness. I think he settles into something kind of a mix between his 2007 and 2008. unfortunately, I think he's closer to 2008. I'm not targeting him.

Reggie: (Denver)

Whats the worst pick you've ever seen in a fantasy BB draft? Mine is Jeff Cirillo, pick 20.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:17 PM)

Hmm, good question. Not sure off top of my head, but thinking maybe that year Greg Vaughn hit like .201 or something. I'm sure there are more, though.

Matt (SC)

Hey Brendan, Thanks for the work!! What are your thoughts on Furcal. I can keep him at $13, but he makes me nervous. Also, where does Manny end up? Sleeper pick is Atlanta.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:18 PM)

He'd make me nervous, too, but I've heard nothing but positive reports about Furcal's health status and conditioning.. And his verve to play, too. I think that's definitely a fine keeper price for him. I still say Manny to LA. Would the two sides just get over themselves already!

Craig (Davenport, Iowa)

Do you think Chris Perez will get a fair shake at closing from the get-go in St. Louis? Thanks!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:19 PM)

Now that there's really nobody else available to take his job, yes. He'll get a fair shake, but I also don't think La Russa will give him a long leash if he struggles. So he's still a risk and a sleeper at the same time.

Jon (S.F.)

Brendan - how do you see the Texas catching situation shaking out? (Trying to decide if Teagarden as a $5 keeper is a good risk.) Thanks.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:21 PM)

Good question, Jon. Yes, this is a situation I check regularly, and the last thing I heard, it's Ramirez headed to Triple-A and Salty and Teagarden staying up to split the job. Since I don't believe in Salty (who might also be dealt), and I do like Teagarden offensively, I guess I like Teagarden more by default. You probably can get him for about that rate in your auction, but I think it's worth keeping him, as long as it's not at the expense of a key player.

Eric (New York)

Speaking of Ellsbury, I play in a 10 team H2H dynasty auction league, and anyone can be kept. I have an opportunity to trade Johnny Cueto ($0) and Brandon Morrow ($5) for Ellsbury ($2). Cueto and Morrow are both bench players for me, but Ellsbury would be a starter. Do you think I should make this deal? What kind of years do you expect from these young pitchers?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:23 PM)

I like both those pitchers, especially Morrow. But I think his wins be limited because he won't go deep into games and his team won't help him, and I think Cueto struggles but slightly improves on last year. But you can't afford to pass up an opportunity to get Ellsbury for that price in a keeper league. No way, even in a H2H league (where his steals are minimized a tad). Go for it!

Steiny (NYC)

Do you have high hopes for Nick Hundley this season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:26 PM)

I don't, really, even though he might be the starting catcher for SD by default and does have some power. Nick is not related to Todd Hundley (he's not his son), but coincidentally, he does profile similarly as a low-average, decent-power guy. But he's not ready, in my mind, and that .230 average could hurt more than his occasional homer. Maybe second-catcher quality in a deep mixed league, but that's it. I don't think he'll amount to anything more than a .230, 15-homer guy, and even that's down the road.

Bob (NY)

Hey B-Rob, good work. Keeper question....Peralta in 14th round, or, Ankiel in the 20th. I feel like I have to keep Peralta, here. Right? What's your take on Peralta this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:28 PM)

My take on him is about the same as it was last year. Full disclosure: I'm not a fan. His power doesn't impress me, and if you look at his level in the SS rankings, it does seem there are several similarly valued players. Meanwhile, Ankiel has 30-homer power and can be had 6 rounds later (in keeper status). Heck, I'd say him, for sure. After all, we still don't know how good he can be yet.

Steve (Oakland)

What is the offensive production ceiling for Fred Lewis this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:29 PM)

Most of the "projectors" are calling for him to put up similar numbers as last year, but with a slight dip in average (to about .270). I think I buy that, although I think he keeps his average above .280. SOO, I think he does similar to what he did last season, which is pretty good.

Lee

in a keeper league, what rd would you target Weiters and Snider?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:30 PM)

Definitely Weiters. First of all, he gets a prospect grade, and second of all, he's a catcher. Guys of his ilk don't come along very often, whereas players like Snider are a lot more common.

Daryl (NY)

In a rotissarie league, which categorie would be the top priorety to touch on first in the draft?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:33 PM)

All of 'em. Seriously, at least all the offensive ones, the elite guys should be able to provide at least four of the five categories (or three very good categories), and then you start filling in with two-category players, then you fill in guys who specialize in the category or two you missed. As for pitchers, you look for a mix of safety and risk. You want a few high-level starters, then you wait and fill in the rest with that healthy group of either upside guys or reliable No. 3 guys. I could go on, but I've given you the gist, I hope.

JIM (boston)

BETTER KEEPER ---- Chris B. Young or Jason Werth?THANK YOU

Brendan Roberts

  (3:35 PM)

I think Chris B. Young. People are down on him because of his low average, but the dude can provide the other four categories quite well. And he's still improving. Funny how people aren't down on guys who don't run, but they are down on guys with low averages. I know maybe he hurts your aggregate a little bit, but zero steals also hurts your team.

Roger (Topeka, KS)

What do you see for Yovani Gallardo this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:37 PM)

You compare him to what you've been hearing. He has incredible stuff, a flawless makeup/composure and he'll get many opportunities ... but I don't see any way he can be as good with such little experience and the injury questions as everyone is saying he can. I think of him as a mid-round guy with high-level upside, but in most drafts, he's going more as the high-level guy with risk. Therefore, unless you reach, you probably won't get him ... and I don't think he's worth reaching for.

Jeff (Frigid cold Alaska)

Can you get by in a league by stock piling on the studs and going cheap on the pitching....since pitchers are always more risky?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:39 PM)

Yeah, I've seen it done before. My man Jason Grey tries that often. But it closes the window a bit, and it takes such little effort to just get a few decent starting pitchers. The thing you can remember is that people already know of their risk, so it's rare that starting pitchers are heavily targeted in the first five rounds (other than the top guys), so if you just get in on the lower level of the top two tiers and get a few guys, you won't hurt your offense much and you save your pitching. So I don't condone that strategy.

Adam (Nashville, GA)

If this trade is put on the table which side is getting the better of the two deals? Jimmy Rollins,Lance Berkman, and Ben Sheets for Kevin Youkilis, David Wright, and Alfonso Soriano...this league is a private league with a point system scoring...Thanks.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:40 PM)

It's pretty close, and there are a few guys there that people either love or hate. But since I don't believe in Sheets this season and do believe in Alfie, I'd say the Youk-Wright-Soriano side of the deal is better, including in your setup.

YD (Philly)

Truth or fiction: Heath Bell gets the lions share of the saves in San Diego.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:42 PM)

Truth, and I think he does well with them. He has closer stuff and the "mental makeup" to be a closer. On the flip side, we all expect big things from Broxton, but I'm not sure I see the makeup from him to be a reliable closer. Too high-strung, and closers don't have someone behind them to bail them out. Tremendous stuff, and I know you didn't ask about him, but thought I'd throw that out there. Like Bell, don't like Broxton.

Sergio (NYC)

Your thoughts on Eric Byrnes, 20/20 guy?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:43 PM)

Nah, I don't think so. I'm not sure he'll be healthy enough or even get the chance to be anything more than a platoon, and I felt like his great seasons were an anomaly anyway.

Jason (Parker, CO)

What is your theory on keeping pitchers vs. hitters in a H2H keeper league? I keep reading load up on offense and get pitching via the draft. Do you let guys like Lincecum or Webb go and keep guys like Crawford, Kemp and Longoria? I know Lincecum only scores points for me once or twice a week, but I do like being able to count on those points! Thanks.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:45 PM)

In my mind, you still have to evaluate them versus the fellow players at their position. Lincecum and Webb are two of the maybe 6-8 pitchers were are so far better than the average-valued pitcher in a H2H league that you more or less have to keep 'em. Tough call, though. Of those five, I'd probably go Lincecum-Longoria-Crawford-Kemp-Webb. All so close, though.

Jake (MN)

How do you feel about Victor Martinez this year? Will he stay healthy and if he does will he return to his old self?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:48 PM)

Was just writing about V-Mart for our catchers preview. I think V-Mart, simply put, broke down last season under the weight of being a regular catcher and middle-of-the-lineup hitter. It didn't help that he was on base so much, and that he often had to maximize his arm because so many teams ran on him. Well, I think the Tribe know this, too, and now they have an overload at C/1B/DH. I think V-Mart's best years behind him because I think he gets more days off to keep him healthy. I think he falls something closer to, say, .300-12-75, which is light years better than he was last season.

Jeff (Rochester NY)

Which Twins pitchers should we keep an eye on this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:50 PM)

Boy, do they have some great young pitchers, and I won't go into detail on all of them, but I will say I'm not a big fan of Blackburn because his lack of K's allows too many balls to be put into play. Good outfield D or no, eventually that catches up to him. But I really like Slowey to continue his improvement across the board, and I'm shocked Scott Baker is getting such little attention in drafts and preseason stories. The guy's numbers were VERY good last year, and he's just coming into his prime at age 27. He's the guy I circle with a colored pencil.

Zack OKC

i'm snowed in and bored out of my mind. what's your take on Parra and Cueto this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:53 PM)

My take? Ug. Hate to say it, and both have great arms, but I don't see anything more than maybe spot starters in mixed leagues. Cueto is just in the wrong situation -- wrong ballpark, wrong manager, wrong age ... I see only marginal improvement this year. And Parra, well, I know why people like him, but his control is awful. Like almost Daniel Cabrera awful, in my mind. I just don't see him turning that around this season -- or maybe ever. Sorry to poo-poo on a couple sleepers, but that's honestly how I feel.

Terry (Houston, Tx)

Do you think this is a great time to sell high on Lance Berkman? It depends on if you consider his second half slump a natural regression to the mean or if you take it as a sign of an aging player slowly leaving his prime. Right now in a roto keeper league I have literally no pitchers worth keeping and my best trade bait is Berkman. I would prefer dealing him for pitching than someone younger, even if Berkman will put up better stats this year because his prime may be ending.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:54 PM)

I think his second-half slump can be linked directly to two things: 1) A simple regression to the mean for him (he still had a great season); and 2) Carlos Lee's absence. Seriously, he got little to hit after Lee broke his hand. Considering Lee still should be considered durable and is back in the lineup, I think Berkman will have another big season (or two, or three).

Russ (g'town, MD)

How do you see Kahlil Greene doing in St.Louis this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:56 PM)

The Cards tend to turn around a below-average hitter every season (Abraham Nunez, Aaron Miles, Tony Womack), but I don't see Greene doing much better than he did with San Diego. Maybe just a few more homers, but the new Busch is hardly hitter-friendly.

Jason (Bmore)

What do you expect out of Felix Pie, the recently acquired OF for the O's. Legend has it he was quite the storied prospect, but just never panned out in Chicago. Did the O's get a steal?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:57 PM)

Considering what they gave up to get him (a projected No. 4 starter and a single-A pitcher), yes, I think they got a steal, all right. I love his all-around talent, but more from a baseball sense than a fantasy baseball sense. I'm not sure the AVG or OBP will ever be anything to write home about, but he should be a regular there at some point soon.

Craigory (Brooklyn)

Jason Kubel....will this finally be the year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:59 PM)

Kubel just doesn't hit lefties well enough (neither AVG nor pop) to be anything more than a 20-homer, .270 hitter, and I don't see that changing. So I guess I'm saying no, this isn't his year. I think that's the best we can expect from him, although that is No. 5 outfielder status in a mixed league. One more, guys.

Mike , Houston TX

Your thoughts on Matt Holliday ?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:01 PM)

A good one to end on. Hey, you know, that A's lineup will be better this year, and Holliday should be able to adapt OK to AL pitching. I guess if I were to sum it all up, I'd say I like Holliday much more than a lot of these pundits who are down on him just cause of the move to Oakland. I see something like .296-24-100-15. That's maybe not first-round good, but still pretty good!

Brendan Roberts

  (4:02 PM)

Wow, is it that time already? Man, these hours just fly by. But I have a lot to get back to, and I'll be back in this space again next week. Until then, keep baseball on the mind, and keep "reaching for the stars," as Kasey Kasem or Bob Kingsley or someone used to say. Later!