ESPN

Brendan Roberts

  (2:59 PM)

Good afternoon, everyone! Let's talk a little baseball. That's where the focus goes now that that little thing known as the Super Bowl is out of the way.

Rob H. (St. Louis, MO)

There has been a ton of hype surrounding Matt Wieters this offseason. He's the next Geovany Soto. He's the next Evan Longoria. What can owners realistically expect from him over the next couple years?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:02 PM)

Hey, I know a Rob in St. Louis. Good friend of mine, that Rob. Anyway, next couple seasons? Well, let's just say I see more Soto than Longoria. As in, I don't think he's ready to dominate right away, but once he gets a half-season or so under his belt, maybe. I don't see how the O's can justify starting him at catcher from the get-go this season, so I'll think he'll be in Triple-A, with a mid-summer recall. Get some PT this season ... then have a monster 2010 season. Seriously, I saw the kid play twice in the AFL, and was quite impressed with his hands and bat speed. Incredible hitter, but he'll have some defensive bumps inititally. Just not expecting much in 2009.

Sam (Fort Lauderdale, FL)

Two questions, Brendan: (a) Rios or Markakis and (b) Rios at $14 or Markakis at $21. Thanks.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:02 PM)

I like Markakis more, but the dollar values kind of force you to go with Rios, in my mind.

Sean (buckhannon, wv)

If you were in the first year of a keeper league and had the first pick, do you take hanley ramirez?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:03 PM)

Absolutely. Helps you win this year -- and for years down the road. People seem to think he's a veteran because he's had a couple of huge seasons -- he's 25.

John (Concord)

Is Nate McLouth really a 25/25 player?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:04 PM)

No, I don't think so. Maybe close, but I just don't see that kind of power from him again (speed, yes). What bothers me is his .260s average with a lot of ABs in the pool. He better go 25/25 to make up for that in mixed leagues.

John (Chicago, IL)

What do you expect to see from an up and coming player like Justin Upton in 2009?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:07 PM)

Some of my ESPN mates are expecting a big year from him, but I'm not so sure it happens so quickly for him. He's just 21, and he swings at too many bad pitches and strikes out A LOT. Maybe a slight walk-up in average to .260, with, oh, 23-25 homers, but that's really nothing special to me. In fact, it's Chris B. Young with a little better average and a lot fewer steals.

Vinny (nyc)

Brendan, would you rather keep Votto at $5 or Carlos Lee at $15? How close does Votto get to matching Lee's #'s?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:08 PM)

Oddly enough, I was just writing up Votto for our 1B preview. I think Votto is in for a huge 2009 season and future ahead. I like Lee better, but at that price, Votto would be my keeper.

Tom (San Bruno, CA)

I've had the same 2 keepers for a few years- Rollins and Holliday. I feel like they've peaked so would you consider keeping Morneau or Quentin instead of those two? At what point do you move on from an older keeper?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:09 PM)

At what point, when it's close enough for THIS season that you should consider it. Keepers are still just extensions (or prefaces, really) of the draft, and Rollins and Holliday both are in demand more than those other guys. I'd still keep them, honestly.

John (NY)

David Price - in the rotation on Opening Day? O/U 25 starts? I'm guessing he'll have an innings cap, just not sure how it'll play out.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:10 PM)

Good question. I don't know about whether he'll be there Opening Day, but I'd put an over on those 25 starts. And yeah, a pitch-count cap, which isn't good for K pitchers like him. So maybe a couple fewer wins, but I think splendid numbers otherwise. I expect good things from him; he's not Joba, he's better.

Jim S. (St. Louis, MO)

Ryan Garko just turned 28. Have we seen his ceiling or can he elevate his game this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:12 PM)

I think we've seen his ceiling. He stepped in to a vacant spot in the Indians' lineup and shocked the league. Now I'm not even sure he'll play even close to everyday. The team has Kelly Shoppach at catcher, and supposedly will start him at C more than anyone else. And they have V-Mart, and Travis Hafner is said to be close to being ready, too. I think he might have blown his opportunity.

James (IA)

Do you see Jayson Werth going 20/20 again? Where do you rank him among your OFs?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:16 PM)

Nah, not quite 20-20. He slumped in September, which indicated the book had gotten around about him or he was wearing down. Then you have the fact that he still hits lefties much better than righties (hit only .255 against righties). And then there's Raul Ibanez, a play-everyday type. I think Werth plays a little less, and his numbers show it.

Michael, (Milwaukee, WI)

is there any typical league format you would consider picking a pitcher in the first 5 picks?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:17 PM)

Only a points format in which innings are heavily rewarded. But that's it. In my mind, Johan is just outside it, though, like 8 or 9.

Tyler (Berkeley)

I am starting to commish a brand new H2H keeper league, I have decided that you will keep 5 guys each year. What do you find as the best rules for what you have to give up to keep your guys year after year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:18 PM)

Well, most leagues don't usually go complex like this (like many FB leagues do). They just allow people to keep 5 guys, and that's that. I'd recommend that, but if you'd prefer owners lose draft picks for 'em, then have them lose the draft picks they spent the year before, and walk the rounds down 2 each year for multi-year guys. Make sense? Hopefully.

Jay(DC)

What do you think about the idea of only using 9 catagories and combining steals and saves into one catagory?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:20 PM)

Nice innovation, but I don't like it. I have enough problem with a Willy Taveras type hoarding value with just the steals category; now he'd be relegating closers worth less, too.

Tyler (WI)

What do you think of Emilio Bonifacio in Florida? Was he really worth trading Olsen and Willingham and will he have a chance to start at 3B this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:22 PM)

From what I hear, Scott Olsen is a headcase; the Marlins probably would have dealt him for the proverbial bucket of baseballs. And Willingham can hit, but isn't a good fielder, and has become injury-prone. Both have good fantasy value, but not necessarily MLB value. Anyway, I think Bonifacio will have the chance to start there, but he projects as more of a solid-fielding good all-around player, not a fantasy option. I'm not expecting much from him.

shortstop lover...

Keeper league...keep one, Tulo or Drew?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:23 PM)

Oh, good one. I'd have to say Drew. Almost as good of a ballpark, and better all-around game. Plus, he was an even more highly touted prospect than Tulo, which is saying something.

Sam, MAl Pais, COsta Rica

Hi Brendan, Sneaking this one in on my honeymoon in Costa Rica. Is Manny a keeper at $29 in a 27/$270 league. I nees to set my keepers this week! Thanks

Brendan Roberts

  (3:24 PM)

Buenas Dias! Hmm, I'd have to say no, in that setup. I think he'll eventually get a two-year deal, and this will be his "good but not great" year. That's a lot of money for that league, so I'd say no.

Steve (DC)

Any details about when the draft kit will be ready?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:24 PM)

We're shooting for next Monday, but that's tentative.

Steve (Fresno, CA)

What 3B do you think will slip to the 12th round or later that's worth picking up? ESPN will definitely take away the 3B option for both Braun and Miguel Cabrera this year, right?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:27 PM)

Yes, both those players lose their 3B status. Here are a couple of mid-round or lower third basemen I like: Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Stewart (great late-round sleeper), Alex Gordon (I'm more lukewarm on him), Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Guillen ... and deep sleepers include Dayan Viciedo and Mat Gamel, as well as Pedro Alvarez. Hope that helps!

Michael, (Milwaukee, WI)

who's your top 2b, Utley or Kinsler? and where would you take both?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:28 PM)

Our rankings say neither ... we have Pedroia. But personally, I'd rate Kinsler as higher. Unless, unless, all the news is good news for Chase Utley during spring training. Not expecting that, though.

Slug (Slug, NJ)

Chris Davis, buy the hype?? Sandwich him between his two closest 1B comparisions for the year.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:30 PM)

Yes, I'm buying the hype. I could even see a Prince Fielder-like breakout, with maybe 35 homers. It's worth noting that he can hit lefties and righties, and in all ballparks. Two closest ranked guys? I'd even say as high as the Derrek Lee/Adrian Gonzalez area.

James (IA)

Is it me or is OF pretty thin this year? Especially in a 12 team league where you start 6?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:31 PM)

You start six OFers? Oh, then yeah, it is. But I wouldn't say, in general, it's any thinner than it was about two years ago, or last year. Sure, gets thin around the last spot or two, but that "mid-range" is just so deep.

Steve (DC)

Thanks; I hope it has the cheat sheet, broken down by position along with Top 300 ranking like it did last year. That was extremely helpful, having it all on one sheet.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:31 PM)

I believe it will, Steve. You won't be disappointed. And the best thing about our rankings; it's not just one person. A good 12 people have input on these, and I mean a lot of input.

Go the Distance

Who are your Top 10 fantasy players (in order) for 2009?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:33 PM)

I just turned in my Top 300 the other day. Here ya go: Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Johan Santana.

Dan (Corpus Christi, TX)

What do you project for Fielder this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:35 PM)

A better year than he had in 2008. Like maybe a mix of 2007 and '08, with 40 homers and a .285 or so mark. Good thing about Fielder is that no splits are really alarming. He just had an inexplicable slow start in '08. That's all.

Dennis (Tucson, Az)I

Where would you rate Kerry Wood as far as closers go? I've seen his projections as low as 18 saves and as high as 33 saves.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:36 PM)

I'd say more like 33. I haven't heard of any tenderness in his arm or issues like that. I could really see him settling in and having a nice string of decent closer seasons. Then again, it'll take a few years for me to forget his inherent risk.

Greg, Baltimore, MD

After (for him) a down year last year, what do expect for Vlad this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:38 PM)

This is maybe beside the point, but as I said in our rankings meeting: "One of these years, and soon, Vlad is going to fall apart and miss about half a season." He's gained weight, his knees are bad, one leg is longer than another, which has affected that, and he played his early years on the turf in Montreal ... I seriously worry about injury with him, and I think he's done stealing. When he plays, though, he should remain effective. But in my mind, he's definitely no longer elite.

Wil (Southport)

Hey Brendo, I've got Johan and I'd like to keep another pitcher. Would you keep Chad Billingsley or Felix Hernandez? Is there anyone you would keep Alexei Ramirez over either of those guys?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:40 PM)

Hey, Willo! I'd probably say Felix. He's just coming into this prime, and the innings cap is being cut. And Billingsley was lights-out in 2008, but seems in early drafts that people are concerned about that broken leg (it was leg, wasn't it?) from slipping on the ice. Simply put, Felix will be in more demand ... than the other two guys.

Jeff (Rochester NY)

Aside from Mauer and Morneau, are there any position players for the Twins that we should get excited about?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:41 PM)

Sure! Delmon Young makes for a great late sleeper, Jason Kubel is solid (albeit I don't think he gets any better than last season), and people seem to have a love affair with Denard Span after his '08. I'm not with 'em, but I can see the upside. Oh, and I think Carlos Gomez will steal 40 bases. Gee, that'd be nice.

David (Houston, TX)

Will Michael young's numbers change with his move to 3B?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:43 PM)

Not much, but if anything, I think they'll be a little better. The move from short to third? Pffft, nothing to write about there in terms of offense, but the fact that he might want out of Texas and focuses more on his offense, that could be something. Maybe a slight step up.

Short sighted

Would you rather take JJ Hardy at short or risk it with Furcal?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:43 PM)

Definitely Furcal. Way more upside. But you can't roll the dice too many times.

Corey (Seattle)

I feel people are forgetting one of the other possible Texas breakout options, Nelson Cruz. Would he be in your top 100 overall?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:46 PM)

Nope, not mine. He just happens to be one of my "soapbox" guys. I think he'll be a total bust. He has 557 career at-bats, and a .251 average, and a K every 3.6 at-bats and everybody thinks he's goiing to be a stud cause he hit in Triple-A? I just don't see it happening. Enough people like him that you'll have to take him mid-rounds to get him, but that guy won't be me.

Red (CA)

Will Speedy Reyes ever develop any more pop?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:47 PM)

Fifteen homers ain't bad now, is it? Nah, seriously, that's about what we should expect from him. I never saw 20 homers from him, and I'm pleasantly surprised he even hit 16 last season. He just doesn't have a home run type of swing.

Michael, (Milwaukee, WI)

Why Braun over Sizemore? aren't the steals enough to rate him higher?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:48 PM)

Ah, my young apprentices, but look at their averages. And remember Sizemore chucks A LOT of at-bats into a pool, so he actually hurts you there. That's easily enough to make up the difference in steals. Plus, I think Braun will do better than last year.

Jim, Indiana

Based on the Nelson Cruz opinion, do you see the same for Pablo Sandoval??

Brendan Roberts

  (3:51 PM)

Nah, I'm higher on Sandoval. He's 22, whereas Cruz is 28. The kid has great bat control, with just 14 K's in 145 ABs in 2008, and I think he could settle in and be a perennial .300 hitter (with a little pop). I like him as a sleeper, but only he qualifies at catcher or 3B in your league. He played more games at 1B last year, but played 10-plus at the other two as well.

Ryan (St. Pete)

Thoughts on Carlos Quentin this year? How good can he be?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:52 PM)

Many people are calling for a step back from him this season, but I think he'll come close to emulating his 2008 percentages/numbers. I watched so many of his homers, and they were on tough pitches or against tough pitchers. I think he's just one of those guys who is able to hit bad balls, a la Vlad. Therefore I think the power numbers will remain, although I think his batting average walks back into the .270s.

Francisco Liriano (MN)

People don't realize how good my combined AAA and MLB #'s were last season if you disclude the first 3 starts when I was clearly rushed -> 30 GS, 183 IP, 16-3 record, 173 K's, 3.25 ERA, sub 1.20 WHIP. Am I primed for a HUGE season or what??

Brendan Roberts

  (3:53 PM)

Yeah, the fact that he has a "zipper" on his left elbow has people a bit wary, but I think Liriano is headed for a big season, too.

Jaron Janiga (Houston, TX)

How do you think Dempster will fare this year? Is he worth drafting high?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:54 PM)

No way, if for no other reason than the rest of your league likely doesn't value him that highly. I just can't explain the drop in walk rate, which is almost unheard of from a guy his age -- and something I fear could come back and get him eventually.

Tony (Atlanta)

Travis Snider - .280/25/80/80 Thoughts? ROY?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:57 PM)

No way (again). I was analyzing a few scouting reports and minor league numbers from him the other day, and I just don't see immediate production like that. He's just 21 (as of yesterday), and I feel he was rushed a bit. At best, maybe a Jay Bruce 2008 season, with a little higher average, but fewer HRs.

Sammy (Passaic, NJ)

Brendan, you keep skipping my question. Is it that tough? Why is Matt Kemp seem so overrated this preseason? His high strikeout rate ? approximately one every four at-bats ? is troublesome. He never stole more than 25 bases in any season in the minors, so it seems unlikely that he can repeat 30+ SBs. But most worrisome, is that he?s been lucky that last two years with a 0.361 BABIP in 2008 and a 0.411 BABIP 2007 (a huge red flag given his low contact rate). Lastly, it is unclear where he?ll be batting in the order, which will also have a significant effect on his overall production, but mainly R/RBI. I have him in a keeper league, so should I take advantage of preseason expectations and trade him for a more proven keeper or should I hold on and hope for 30/30 sometime in the near future? Thanks!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:59 PM)

I see novels like this, and I think it helps people if I just stick to the shorter ones. Let's keep 'em short. But I will say, Kemp was also super-young when he was coming through the minors, and not near the physical specimen he is now. The K rate does bother me, and I think his average settles in in about the mid.270s, but I can the 30-30 potential everyone is talking about.

Carlos (Lynchburg)

Brendan, do you think Texeira is a 1st rounder this year in the Yankees lineup, or is he still a second rounder?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:00 PM)

First, first, first! Then again, I felt that way about him about every year BEFORE he was in the Yankees lineup. Seriously, though, maybe 38 homers, 130 RBIs, a good average, lotta runs ... great hitter, great lineup fit.

Jaron Janiga (Houston, TX)

Which BJ Upton will show up this year from last year?Playoffs Upton, or Regular Season Upton?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:01 PM)

Last one, guys. Regular-season Upton. Hey, that guy stole 44 bases, so we really shouldn't complain. But he's too lanky to be a home run hitter, and he K's too much to hit .300. I actually think his 2008 season looks about right.

Brendan Roberts

  (4:02 PM)

Wow, that was quick, but I have to go. Writing the 1B preview right now. Lot of great questions in a short time, though, and I'll be back to hit more of 'em next week. Be well!