Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! What a fine day it is ... pitchers and catchers begin reporting today! Fantasy baseball is in high gear, so I expect oodles of questions on the topic, but any sport is fair game if you'd like. Let's get started!

Kevin (NY)

Hey Tristan, Do guys like Devine and Qualls get wiggle room to close, or do they have short leashes with other options already in their pens? How about Fuentes/Arredondo, Street/Corpas, Sherrill/Ray? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

Personally I think both should and probably will get the bulk of the saves in their respective bullpens, though Chad Qualls has more leeway, I think. The more I examine him the more I like him. Most suited in that bullpen, both numbers and stuff. With Devine, my main worry is durability, though the reason I'd choose him over, say, Brad Ziegler is that Ziegler's platoon split against lefties is awfully troublesome. I'm not sure he can handle being a closer, and besides, he's better used in multiple innings setting up. With the other 'pens, that's Fuentes' job barring injury or disastrous performance, I think Huston Street is the guy in Colorado until he's traded, and in Baltimore it's all about Chris Ray's health, which we'll begin getting a read on about now.

Mike (AZ)

would it be 'pretty accurate' to say that A-Rod will miss some time because he lied about steroid use?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

No.

Kevin (Houston)

Is this a fair trade, 1st and 7th round picks for a 2nd and a 3rd rounder?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Sure, depending of course on where the picks place in those respective rounds. But when I'm dealing an early-first pick, that's the kind of price tag I'd be expecting.

Steiny (NYC)

Do you expect Wandy Rodriguez to have a nice season?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Rodriguez actually highlights my list of sleepers, and will be part of my upcoming "Kings of Command" column. Two years ago I pointed out he was an ideal matchups play, dominant at home and terrible on the road. But if you examine his 2008, he began to pick up his performance on the road, and his overall numbers were better than you'd think. There's room for growth with him, and I'd say he's well worth late-round sleeper status in mixed formats.

RJ (Stoughton,Mass)

Has A-Rod's fantasy value dropped due to his admissions? Who knows if he was using steroids up until last year and now he has to play clean. My #1 fantasy ranking is definetely Hanley Ramirez then I may have to go with Albert Puhols. A-Rod may slip out of my top 5.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

I can't fault you for feeling that way, RJ, and for the record, if you've been in my chats all winter you'd know I had Albert Pujols over A-Rod anyway. Now I'd probably drop A-Rod behind Hanley Ramirez, but that's about as far as I'll go. Besides, I think we're going to get a read on whether A-Rod has really changed at all as a hitter when the spring games start, plenty of time to make draft-day decisions. For the record, I have a feeling he's going to be a-OK, though with the media scrutiny I'm backing a little off the whole "odd-year" thing. (Check his history on that.)

Grady Sizemore (Cleveland)

I am currently ranked #7 overall behind Braun in your amazing ESPN Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. In a league that counts BB as a category, would I be worthy of being drafted ahead of Braun due to the large contrast between us in that category?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

I don't know the exact specifics of your scoring system but for the most part yes, that makes a substantial difference. As is it's Braun and Sizemore for me as the top two fantasy outfielders, and I don't really have any problem with either one going first. On my list, it's Braun.

Scott (NJ)

Tristan my man! Love your initials and your analysis! Which Yankee OFer do you want this year? Who gets the most playing time out of Swish, X-Man, Matsui, and Johnny Damon?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

Thanks Scott. I'd take Damon, and much of the basis for that is his lineup spot, leadoff in that loaded offense. That makes a huge difference. I have Xavier Nady No. 2 of this bunch, and don't really see much to like about Hideki Matsui, frankly.

Sam (Boston, MA)

Now that Joba has been named the team's 5th starter, what can we expect from him? And, in keeper terms, should I still be scared of him winding up in the bullpen at some point?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:12 AM)

OK, Sam, it's a legitimate question, and let me remind everyone that I've said all winter that if Joba Chamberlain is actually in the Yankee rotation, he without question offers the upside to be a top-10 starting pitcher. My doubts are entirely centered on his health and durability, as I can't project him expecting more than 150 innings. They'll be great innings, though. And I don't like this whole idea of making him the fifth starter and skipping him due to off days. I just think it's a recipe for disappointment, as he's off his usual rhythm. My opinion remains Joba offers a little more 2009 value to the Yankees as a reliever, but gotta hand it to them, as long as they pick a role and stick to it, they're making the right call. So I would not worry at all about a shift back to the 'pen if that's the case. What I would worry about, though, is potential missed time. Project 150 innings, no more.

Coach M (Texas)

The best player in baseball this year will be...?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Albert Pujols.

Steve - LA.

Is this the year that Kendrick breaks out with the Angels? Will he move up to the top of the order eventually?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

It's all about health with Howie Kendrick, Steve. All about health. If that kid stays healthy, plays even 140-plus games, he's a legitimate batting-title contender. That said, he has suffered enough bumps and bruises that I doubt he gets there. And his power isn't to the point where he's worth hitting third or fourth yet, and he's not an on-base specialist, meaning he doesn't belong at No. 1 or 2 in the order, either. He's probably a No. 6 hitter, and about 10th among fantasy second basemen. It's a generous enough rank, I think.

Kev (NYC)

Where are you taking Longoria?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

He's going to go a little outside the top 25 players, but I'd probably prefer to take him in, say, late-third or early-fourth, making a top-of-my-head estimate. I have a hunch I'm not going to get him because everyone loves him, but I absolutely think he's legit, and unlikely to suffer the sophomore slump.

David (Kingwood, TX)

What effect where there be on the numbers of Adam Dunn playing with the Nats this year? Still hit 40HRs?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

My opinion on the big-time power bats is that it's almost entirely irrelevant where they play; they're going to hit the ball so far so often that their power numbers are going to stay strong. It's not like Nationals Park is RFK, not by a long shot, and I don't think it's wise to make ballpark evaluations based on one year of numbers. Dunn should be fine. I have him batting just under .250 and hitting in the 35-38 homer range.

Kev (NYC)

Matt Holliday: top 10 in Colorado...is he top 25 in Oakland?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Yes. I was on board with Holliday remaining a top-five fantasy outfielder, and top-25 overall, even before I read some of the studies that helped further alleviate my concerns about him. I think too many people are being harsh on him.

David (Houston, TX)

What are you expecting out of Mike Hampton this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

A lot of dollars put into doctors' pockets.

todd (NJ)

Can you talk about Chris Davis? Where would you recommend taking him in an AL only league? Would you recomend jumping on him before someone else does?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

Can I talk about Chris Davis? Ha, Todd, yeah, I've talked quite a bit about the guy thus far. Still a big fan, and to recap, I say he can hit .275 with 35 homers, and he could hit .240 with 20 and a ton of whiffs. I am on board with more of the former. That kid has unbelievable power. Like, nearly Ryan Howard power. I think it makes up for the poor K rate.

SteveFitz (Cicero, IL)

Soriano's career high in HR's came with the Nats. I wouldn't take anything away from Dunn. 40+ should be in the bag.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

And in RFK. But in a contract year. Not your ideal comparison, but it does demonstrate that ballparks shouldn't be the be-all and end-all to the discussion. (Heads up, Matt Holliday doubters.)

MJ (SC)

Hey Tristan, love the work. I'm in a keeper league that uses an auction ($260). With inflation.... who do you like better? Markakis at $23 or Furcal $13? Thanks!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Thanks MJ. I have no idea the level of inflation that you have calculated, and I urge you to make sure you do your math, but I do like Nick Markakis at that price. Too much risk in Rafael Furcal.

Joe (Dallas, TX)

Tristan, I am interested in doing a 10-team auction league this year. Approximately how long do they take if you are doing it online?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

I've done auctions like that in under three hours. They're longer than drafts, but not that much so. And being totally honest with you, a heck of a lot more fun in my opinion.

Panther Dave (Wilmington,NC)

So, where do you have DeAngelo Williams ranked this year? I'm gunning for him with a J Stew hand-cuff

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

Late first rounder/early second, and I'd only keep him away from my top five because of, as you said, the Jonathan Stewart factor.

Mike (Brockton, MA)

I was surprised how low Victorino was in the rankings. Do you expect a step back from '08?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Well, I have faith in Shane Victorino, Mike. Though I do think his fantasy value is higher if he sneaks back into the No. 2 spot in the lineup. I still have him a clear top-25 fantasy outfielder, maybe 20th even. But I wouldn't push him higher, he's kind of shown us what he is by now.

Jack (Richmond Hill)

Everyone knows about the undervalued rotation in Minnesota, but what about the Mets staff? Maine, Pelfrey and Perez seem to going very late. Each has a reasonable chance to reach 15 wins and a high 3 era with decent K's and Whip (ok maybe not Ollie on the whip). Your thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

I also see greater downside in those Mets than I do the Twins. Oliver Perez is the kind of guy who can be untouchable at times, and a train wreck others. Mike Pelfrey's numbers were inflated by a bit of good fortune, and the bump in workload troubles me a little. And John Maine, health, health, health. I think you're on the right track that these guys need not be discarded, but not one of those guys makes a case for me over, say, a Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey. No way.

Todd(Albert Lea, MN)

Hello, NL-only keeper league, I can keep either Cain or Gallardo both at $13, who do you prefer?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

I'd rather keep Yovani Gallardo. More growth potential. Matt Cain really hasn't shown me any sign, statistically speaking, that he's ready to take that next leap.

Matt (Austin, TX)

TC- What are your projections/feelings on Eric Byrnes? Bounce back 20/20 season? Like him as a 4th or 5th OF sleeper? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

I don't have a great feeling about him, but then I generally don't about guys with injury questions and an undefined role. It's just a poor combination. Plus, he's 33, so it's not like he's in his prime anymore. I do agree with you that he has some sleeper potential as perhaps a final mixed-league outfielder, but I'd say 20/20 numbers would be the best-case scenario.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Specific Byrnes projections I have as of Feb. 12: 117 games, .261 BA, 16 HRs, 13 SBs.

Carlos (Van Nuys)

Keeper League: Jay Bruce or Alexei Ramirez?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

Bruce. I'm going for the overwhelming upside over position scarcity. I truly believe Bruce has it in him to belt 30 home runs as soon as this season. Not that I think Ramirez can't, but I just see a lot more room for growth in Bruce at his age than Ramirez at his.

Kev (NYC)

How much does Hamilton's decline late last year worry you?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

Nada. My opinion is that he didn't play in 2006, had a solid 2007 albeit with some bumps and bruises along the way and in 2008 stayed healthy but seemed to wear down as the year ended. Put those together and it's still a nice little staircase of sorts in the durability department, I think. I'm prepared to take the chance that the next step is a full healthy year in which he doesn't wear down at all.

ron (jersey)

andruw jones, hitters park, is there ANY WAY possible he turns it around this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

From what I saw of Jones last season, he has a long, long way to go to get himself back on track. He looked completely overmatched, and had way too long a swing. Texas has the coaching to help him, so I understand the move from that perspective, but that team also has the aforementioned Hamilton in center. It means Jones has a huge fight just to earn regular at-bats. To me, he's a deep AL-only sleeper, and that's mainly if he shows any improvement to speak of in the spring.

Lou: (NYC)

I liked Nelson Cruz about a month ago but the news of moving Hamilton to right, resigning Byrd and now giving Jones a shot has me not liking him as much. What are your take on this situation?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

I like Cruz's raw power, and there is the potential for him to have a Ryan Ludwick-type season, but let me be crystal clear that he has a very short leash. In other words, I'm saying the downside is huge, so I think you're on the right track. There's no way I'm spending a resource equal to a clear starting spot on my fantasy roster on draft day.

Steve (NY)

Do you like Greinke has much as the ESPN ranks?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Yes, I probably was one of those most trying to influence his rank.

Mike (Brooklyn)

12 team league - where are you drafting Ervin Santana?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

He's either 11th or 12th for me among starting pitchers -- I forget exactly which -- and that's usually what, a sixth-rounder in mixed? I'm guesstimating, but it means he's going fairly quickly. I have faith, he's for real.

Chris (West Chester PA)

If manny doesnt sign before my draft should i risk drafting juan pierre?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

Well, those two things are so very tied to each other, aren't they? For the record, I still have Manny Ramirez eventually getting something done with the Dodgers. It makes way too much sense. So I guess that means if I'm making the call today, no, I'm pretty anti-Juan Pierre.

Steve (Miami)

Do you hate Ryan Howard as much as Matthew Berry?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

I don't know that I hate anyone, Steve. Such a harsh word! Seriously though, I think Howard is your classic throwback to the big-power, low-average, high-K's slugger like the ones in the early '80s. I still have him ranked awfully high, but the one minor warning I can offer people is that when the decline comes, it's going to be steep and it's going to be fairly unexpected. The gut says that's 2010 or later, but it's going to come someday.

Griffey JR. (Seattle?)

how bout me?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

Great story for a finish to your career, but bad fantasy player. Streaky type you plug in based on hot spells and matchups, period.

Chet (LA)

Tristan, what are your thoughts on Pablo Sandoval this season? Is a .300 20HR season too much to expect? Is he similar in value to Conor Jackson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

I'd say that's fairly close, Chet, accounting for the possibility of catcher-first base-third base eligibility. I think Jackson gets the better numbers, but Sandoval isn't far behind, and being eligible at all those spots would make up most of the difference. By the way, as I said in earlier chats I didn't have a lot of data to examine him, and therefore I couldn't trust any projection for him, I did more research since then and am much more confident today: .281 BA, 17 HRs, 71 RBIs.

Kev (NYC)

Which Cano are you expecting? 2007 or 2008?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Neither exactly but I expect a heck of a lot closer to 2007 of those two. I've got him around a .300 hitter with 16-17 homers, because I really think that's just about what he is.

David (Houston, TX)

What should we expect from Ty Wigginton this year? Will he play everyday all over the field?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

Every day no, but I can see 400 at-bats for him in that lineup. He'll play third for the inevitable period Melvin Mora gets hurt, some first base when Aubrey Huff needs a day off, and against lefties for Luke Scott. I'm saying about 115 games, .275 batting average, about 20 homers. Good, not great.

BJ (NY)

Where does Joe Nathan rank amongst your closers for 2009?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Second to Jonathan Papelbon.

Steve (Miami)

Do you believe in the "contract year"? Would you rate players higher if they are in a contract year and have a history of doing well then. For example: Adrian Beltre.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

I believe in it only to the extent that if I'm looking at two almost identically valued players, I'm taking the contract-year player ... especially if there's any past history with him that motivation is a huge part of his game. I do believe an extra buck or two of auction dollars belong in Beltre's column as a result of it, yes.

Steve (NY)

17 wins, 3.20 ERA, 200 Ks and a rank of 40 among SPs. Explain Volquez!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

Huge downside. I think Dusty Baker worked him hard and he's going to pay the price for it this season. Now, for the record, I don't dislike Volquez for the course of his career. Great young pitcher. But this is the kind of guy who could show wild variance in numbers from year to year, and I hate taking those types the season after a huge one by their standards. It's a trap. He walks way too many hitters to be considered truly trustworthy.

Adam Dunn (DC)

How much of a bump in the rankings do you give me in a league that uses OBP instead of AVG?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Massive. Dunn has Prince Fielder-like numbers if you're going by on-base percentage instead.

Jeff (Louisville KY)

Love the chats. I need to choose a third keeper from BJ Upton, Alex Rios,Soria and King Felix. Who do you like? Have Longoria and Mourneau locked.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

I would keep Alex Rios, because that's a fairly safe 20/20 in the bank, with upside. I've got more doubt about each of the other three.

David (Downingtown, PA)

What kind of production will Tejada have this year? How much will it effect rest of the team?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

Miguel Tejada? I could see the guy batting .280 and lucky to get to 10 home runs. Seriously, his career curve is terribly distressing and now that we know some of his lifetime numbers were PED-enhanced, one has to worry that things only get worse from here. I'd stay away; he's a guy I've been fighting to keep out of my top 10 shortstops, and I say that only because it's just a thin position.

Kev (NYC)

Tristan...Just for fun...What's your WS pick?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

I said it in my 2009 preview and I'll say it again because it was said "for fun" at the time: Yankees win the World Series, proving that indeed you can buy the trophy.

Bobby Abreu, CA

OK, TC, do I go 20/20 heading into free agency at the end of this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

Contract-year status doesn't really apply to one-year deals necessarily. Weren't you just a contract-year player? I like the move to Anaheim for Abreu, and I'd say somewhere in the ballpark of 18 homers, 22 steals. You seem about dead on with him. Maybe a drop-off of a buck or two with the team switch, but nothing dramatic.

J.L. (Bangkok)

Cliff Lee below Ervin Santana? Everyone convinced he's a one-year fluke?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Yes, Cliff Lee below Ervin Santana, for me. But it's not way below; Lee is still in my top 25. That means he's still a very good fantasy starting pitcher. The main reason he's outside my top 10 is that just about everything that could possibly go right for him in 2008 did. It's asking a lot for him to repeat that, but his peripherals did suggest that he's legit as a trustworthy every-start guy.

Steve (Miami)

If Manny doesnt sign before spring training or even before the season. How will lost time in AZ going to affect him?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

I don't think it'll matter much at all, except if he signs, say, on April 1. And I doubt it'll take that long. This isn't like football where missed camp time has a profound impact; spring training is long as it is -- longer this season, it feels like, with the WBC -- and I think veterans can get by with maybe two weeks' action.

Jay (Orlando)

Why is it such a surprise that so many of these players are getting caught for lying...It seems that whenever anyone tries to dig up dirt on someone, they are successful..There's been a problem with steroids and also imigrants lying about their age for quite some time...Do you think that we are nearing the end of all this mess, or just simply breaking the surface...because if they keep digging, I'm sure they will find a lot more dirt on many players.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Jay, the whole topic just distresses me as a baseball fan. And the only thing I can really say to this is that if the report says 104 players are on that list, this isn't over. Sigh.

BJ (Chicago)

if you've got the 12th pick in a 12 team league, would you consider going 2 studs at one position like Ryan Howard and Mark Teixiera, or would you fill up a different position?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

I would never, ever spend the Nos. 12 and 13 picks on first basemen. Not under any circumstance. It's way too deep a position this season. So deep Derrek Lee is outside my top 10 first basemen.

Pat (Jackson, Miss)

KEEPER/DRAFT QUESTION: Would you rather have Reyes or Wright and Youk with your first two picks or Quentin and Brandon Phillips with your first two picks? Thanks!!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

Former two, please, though I think Kevin Youkilis doesn't belong in the second round. Then again, neither does Carlos Quentin.

Ron (Miami)

Ok... Best hitter and pitcher who are your top sleepers this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

OK, I want to give you all two new names today, with regard to this question. Hitter: Jose Lopez. Pitcher: Manny Parra. Best? Hard to say that, but they're two I feel very good about as bargain bets.

Goose (Chicago)

I have Kubel and Cruz, safe to deal Cruz for a more sure thing?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Yes, Goose, and I do think that a lot of people in the business are riding the Nelson Cruz hype train means you should be able to fetch more than you should for him.

Tim Lincecum, SF

Tristan, what's up with these fools that are letting me slip into the 3rd round?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

They are? Wow. Sorry dude. Big fan right here. Can't wait to see you again this spring!

Nate (Madison)

Besides Braun, do you see any breakout years or sleepers on the Brewers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Just listed one, Nate: Manny Parra. And if you wanna go deeeeeeeep, I would surely keep my eye on Carlos Villanueva this spring. Very intriguing as a reliever, and I would just make sure to watch how the Brewers use him carefully. There might be some real fantasy potential there.

Chet (LA)

Ok, so I thought last season was the year Cameron Maybin would make a splash in the big leagues, but I was wrong. It looks like he will be given every opportunity to be the starting CF for the Marlins this season. He seems like a legit 20/20 rookie prospect. Do you think a .260 21HR 25Steal season are unrealistic expectations for Maybin?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

Chet, I continue to stress I am not a Cameron Maybin fan. If you pick him late, you expect maybe 12-15 homers and 25 steals, numbers that might make him sound like a breakout stud, but remember that he might absolutely kill your team in batting average. I think he faces a long adjustment to the majors, and isn't his real, trustworthy self until 2010. I feel a similar way about Andrew McCutchen, it's going to take time, because these guys were really rushed in the minors and I think it hurt their development.

Oldie but Goodie

Tristan, what do you see Jim Thome doing this year? I realize he is in a decline, but he does make a nice DH?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

I would say so, yes, especially with most of the DH crop looking less attractive than usual. Sneaky power potential always lurks in Thome, who is often overlooked because he's tucked away on that short DH list on most people's draft lists.

James, NY, NY

Better Keeper...Drop one of these 3.... Upton, Markakis, McCann... thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:06 PM)

Well, James, I'd say which Upton, but I think I'd let either one of them go in that case. Brian McCann is one of the few catchers I'd call that keeper-worthy.

Steiny - NYC

what is for lunch THC?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:06 PM)

I've got a craving for a roast beef sub, actually. Peanuts and Cracker Jack probably would be more appropriate today, but also not too nutritious.

Trey (Chicago)

Sleeper alert: Paul Konerko, his 2008 BABIP was ridiculously low.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:08 PM)

This is true, Trey, but I don't see tons of room for rebound with Mr. Konerko. For the record, his BABIPs from 2004 until now: .274, .287, .326, .263, .244. I think you have to take that category in context, and it seems he has always been a bit beneath the league average. So it doesn't mean he's worlds better than he showed in 2008.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:09 PM)

OK folks, time to go grab said aforementioned sub! Take care everyone, and enjoy the baseball buzz today, it's a great day for sure. And thank you for all your questions, sorry if I couldn't tackle yours today...