Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football.
Thomas, Wayne, WV
hey KC how do my Pats look here in 09? You dont think Brady will come back and end up like Culpepper with the previous knee injury do you?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
I'm kind of in between on the Pats. They are aging at a lot of positions and lost some coaching talent, so that makes me think this is a year on the slide, but I could also see them eeking out a Wild Card berth.
Can you please tell Eagles fans that WR isn't the problem? I would much rather sign/draft a TE and RB
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
The Eagles have always worked wonders without great wideouts but I do think they would benefit from someone who could come in immediately and contribute. That makes a FA run at that position more likely. In the draft, I'd stick to getting O linemen, as they are aging there (especially at OT).
Matt Lownes East Hampton New York
Do you think the Jets can win 5 or more games?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Absolutely. They have the makings of a great secondary and have solid wideouts among a number of strengths. I see with a very good shot at 8-10 wins next year.
Kc do you think mcnabb is going to get traded or put for free agency anytime soon i don't know his current contract right now.
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
I'm betting Philly makes this offseason their one-year push to get back to the Super Bowl. Andy Reid and McNabb only have so much left in their collective tanks and with no dominant team in the NFC, this is the time to try to get that last championship game before making big changes.
Is this the year Jason Campbell finally evolves?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
In my estimation, 2008 was the season Jason Campbell evolved. He had only one bad decision in the first half of the season despite not having what one would call the best receiving corps in the NFL. If Washington gives him a bit more help on the catch side of the ledger, he'll be a Pro Bowl candidate in the next couple of years.
Are the Lions going to play 4-3 scheme on defense?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Gunther Cunningham's history and their talent base says they will do that. I'll put Detroit's defensive chances this way. If they get some help in the secondary, they can go from an 0 wins to 6 wins in 2009. Every one of their 2008 CBs allowed 10 or more YPA and that's a key reason they lost every game.
Broad Street Brian (philly)
Will Buffalo draft an O-lineman high? They seemed to suffer at center and guard last year.
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
They weren't that good at LT either, Jason Peters undeserved Pro Bowl berth notwithstanding. It's one of the few positions they aren't in good shape in so I would not be surprised to see them go after a couple of linemen.
Cosmo (Anytown, USA)
As an Eagles fan, I am already looking forward to losing another NFC Championship Game this year, then wallowing in the Kevin Kolb era (and longing to just make the playoffs). Just thought you'd like to know what it is like to be an Eagles fan.
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
This movie is called Being Cosmo - Eagle Fan
How will the Peppers situation turn out? Deangelo Hall?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Peppers is in a tough spot because of the other contracts that are up in Carolina and because he's going up against some strong FA competition. I might see him leaving Carolina because of this. As far as Hall goes, if the Hall of the later half of 2008 is available, he'd be worth signing.
Jake (VA Beach)
Would Holt be a good trade aquistion for teams not looking to pay the Boldin price? Or, is he done being a #1?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
I've been a huge Holt backer over the years but he's done as #1.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Mr. Joyner: Do you think Jeff Garcia will look good in purple and gold?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
That would be a good move if the Vikes and Jackson were willing to deal with maybe having him available part time. They might want to consider doing what the Giants of the 1950s did and use the young QB early in the game to see what the defense is doing and then put the vet in to finish the game. He'd be more likely to last 16 games in that respect and that would also help Jackson's development.
Zeta, Wendover, NV. [via mobile]
will the buds have a top 10 defense next season?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
I think you mean the Bucs. If so, I'd have to say no. Bates is a good coordinator but he doesn't have the weapons right now to run his man coverage-heavy scheme. Give him some young CBs and a year or two to develop things and then we can talk top 10 D.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
I'm all for Jackson working on his development (and decision making skills) in another uniform.
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
J.B. is not a fan of the old Giants approach to developing QBs!
Eric (Long Island, NY)
hey kc, you say Holt's days as a number one are over. How about as a #2 next to Lee Evans?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
Now that is an interesting thought. He'd be the best #2 they've had in years and can run the dink/dunk routes the Bills focus their passing game on. I think it'd be a great move.
If you see two corners putting up similar YPA, are you more impressed with the one with more attempts (more reliable sample size) or less attempts (more feared by opposing QBs)? Thanks.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
More attempts. All it takes for a CB to be avoided is to have another CB opposite him who isn't very good. it's more an indictment on the bad CB than it is a badge of honor for the other CB.
Who are the top FA WR's?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Some of the big names are Antonio Bryant, Houshmandzadeh, Bryant Johnson and Reggie Williams. Not a terrible list but not exactly overflowing with big talent either.
Jason (Calgary, AB)
Is one of the Eagles first rounders plus Lito or Reggie Brown enough to get Boldin? Also, who fits better with the Birds: Housh or Boldin? I say Boldin.
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
I'd probably agree on Boldin being the better fit but he'd also be a better choice because he's younger than Housh. Housh is 31 and Boldin is 29 and that's a big difference when it comes to thinking past the one-year mark.
Do the Ravens play a 3-4 or a 4-3? I keep seeing questions about Ray Lewis going to a 3-4 team, I thought that Ray Lewis didn't like the 3-4 because linemen go to him more than with the 4-3.
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
They alternate defensive fronts fairly often but they were technically a 3-4 front last year. Ray could be a plugger in a 3-4 or a MLB in the right 4-3 alignment but don't kid yourself - he's not the dominant Ray Lewis of old.
Fred Bennet (Houston, TX)
How much was my productivity hurt by penalties this year? How can I get back to my old shut down self?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
I think I'm to blame a bit for Fred's bad reputation. I touted him as one of the best CBs of 2007 and it was expected he would do the same in 2008. He didn't meet that level of performance but he did post an 8.0 YPA. That isn't exactly bad (it's a bit below the leaguewide YPA average) so let's not say he turned into a coverage liability. In other words, I could easily see him getting back to his old dominant self.
MRL the Pearl (Owings Mills)
How good can Joe Flacco be? People don't recognize that he received minimal training camp reps, came from a division II program, and yet managed to be the Ravens best player down the stretch alongside Ed Reed, and won 13 games as a starter with a regular season QB rating higher than Roethlisberger's. He has an INCREDIBLY high ceiling, no?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
What impressed me most about Flacco was how his vertical game took off at midseason. He had terrible numbers before that but finished up the stretch run with double digit figures in those passes. That's good for any QB but really hard for a rookie and is a very good omen for his long-term prospects.
Jake (VA Beach)
Would it be a mistake for Zona to let Dansby walk? And if they do, is he a great fit for the GMen?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Arizona has shown a lot of intelligence when it comes to doling out the large contracts. They did so with Fitz but not with Boldin because the numbers say Fitz is a much better WR. I don't think Dansby is a great LB (he's good but not elite) and I don't think they'll pay him an elite contract. If he does go, his skill set is good for NY, assuming they can get him at the right price (although after the Corey Webster contract fiasco, I have to wonder how they figure out how much to pay).
Is Carey worth keeping in Miami and would Brown be a major upgrade at Center for them?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
I keep hearing how bad Satele is and I'm not sold on his being such a blocking liability. He graded out fairly well for a center in the tapes I've broken down of the Fins O line last year and he was better the year before, so I wouldn't necessarily give up on him. As far as Carey goes, he's OK but they could do better.
Eric (Long Island, NY)
Hey kc, I was wondering if you have any metrics on Marlon Greenwood who was released by the Texans? I heard hes had 4 straight 100 tackle seasons before getting hurt last year but there must be a reason he was cut, thanks.
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
My understanding of the Greenwood situation is that he wasn't much more than a tackler. He doesn't make that many extra plays and Houston had a severe lack of forced turnovers last year. Greenwood won't help them solve that.
If the Broncos sign Julius Peppers and then sign B.J. Raji, will they have an automaticly top 15 defense?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
As long as they get the 2008 Peppers, that would probably propel them close to a top 10 D, especially if they can get a bit of help in the secondary.
With the talk of an uncapped year changing the free agency requirement from 4 to 6 years, how does a player's salary for the 6th season get assigned?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
I don't know this for certain but I believe if a player is signed to a contract under an existing set of rules, those rules still apply when the new rules go into effect. I do know that teams are not wanting to sign players to deals that go past the CBA termination date if they can avoid it, so they are trying to avoid the issue whenever possible. I'll ask around to see if I'm right on the first part and let you know next week.
Russell Dallas, TX
Will Ted Thompson finally make some big offseason moves to bring in an OLB or DE? Im not aying go after Haynesworth, not with his price, but rather a player like Bart Scott or something. A linebacker corp of Kampman and Scott rushing the passer, and Hawk and Barnett holding the middle would be killer.
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
I agree that would be a strong LB set but I'm not convinced Thompson will do that. He has the mindset of building with youth and developing his own talent and the price tags for top FAs might also keep him away from those.
Dee (Greenville, NC)
How much do you think Rivers gets? I'm pretty sure he's in the 100 mil club, but with McNeill, Cromartie, Merriman, and others coming up will they break the bank for Rivers or try to play hard ball?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
If they can get him to take the Tom Brady deal (with a percentage increase for the increase in cap numbers since Brady signed that deal) they would be in good shape. I'm finally on the Rivers as elite QB bandwagon and you pretty much have to pay those guys whatever it takes to keep them.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
In all seriousness, what do you think is Tavaris Jackson's biggets weakness and do you honestly think he can be a top ten QB in the NFL?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
I think it's a matter of Jackson putting too much pressure on himself. When he's on, his numbers across the board are more than acceptable starting QB numbers, so it's just a matter of getting him to be on all the time. I wouldn't give up on him yet.
Shane (Phx, AZ)
KCJ: Speaking of the CBA, what is it going to take to get one signed? I havent even heard of any negotiations taking place (since Gene Upshaw passed away, with no replacement). When they finally do start working on the CBA, how likely do you think it will be that there will be a rookie salary cap? As a fan, this is an idea Im 100% for...the top picks have become prohibitive for the teams that need the picks the most.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
The US economic situation is probably not helping the CBA get moved on. Regarding the rookie salary cap, I'm all for it within reason. Once you get past the first couple of rounds, there is already a de facto cap anyway (just take a look at how similar all the rookie contracts are by round and position) so it would only affect the top picks. Those guys are worth more than their rookie counterparts so to pay them all similar levels of money isn't right either. Maybe make it a play for pay deal where you allow a lot of incentives for rookies that you might not allow for vets and I'd be on board with it.
Rich (Bayonne, NJ)
Olshansky would look great in Niner Red and Gold. He and and a pass rushing OLB would make that defense really formidable. It makes too much sense to happen, right?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
He would be a good fit there but how willing is SF going to be to pay out a large FA contract? They gave Clements the world and he didn't meet expectations and that certainly has to still be on their minds.
you think the steelers could make it seven next year. also who do you think they will pick in the first round?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
There isn't a dominant team in the NFL right now so there is no reason Pittsburgh should be left off of the Super Bowl 44 favorites list. As far as who they should draft, it should be O line all the way. They won it all in spite of that group and upgrades would be a huge help for future championship runs.
Ryan (San Diego)
KC Joyner says Rivers is an elite qb...that is music to my ears. Good to hear
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Never thought you'd hear me say that, right?! I wasn't sure I ever would either but I've got to give the man credit. I still think his delivery is awkward as heck but, hey, if the passes get there, who am I to complain?
Shane (Phx, AZ)
I think you are on the money for the pay for play deal...for every Manning in the top of the draft there are 5 Leafs!
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
You know the only thing I wouldn't like about that type of deal? What happens to a team like the 2008 Lions? Do you pay players based on if the team wins or on how well they play? And how do you grade players at non-ball handling positions? There are ways to grade them but they all contain some level of subjectivity. You wouldn't want to put that in the hands of the teams for obvious reasons so how do you handle that?
brian, philly [via mobile]
two question. first whats the likelyhood of the eagles trading for boldin and second do you think the eagles will work out a deal with donovan
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Boldin to Philly might depend more on the Cards than on Philly's willingness to make a good trade offer. If Fitz will re-work his deal to help Boldin stay and Arizona agrees to it, Anquan stays in the desert.
I've never understood why the Union wouldn't want a rookie salary cab. With an overall salary cab, having a rookie salary cap just guarantees more money for proven veterans. Since the Union members will never be rookies again then watching these outrages rookie contracts to the top picks has to make them feel they messed up not including rookie caps.
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
I'd agree but you have to figure this as well. What if a rookie challenges the salary cap? He's not a member of the union and is subject to rules that he didn't agree to. I'd also point out that some rookies are worth a whole lot more than others and that still has to be figured into the salary structure somewhere.
Zeta (Wendover, NV.) [via mobile]
Can Michael Vick be as dominant at the QB position?
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
I wouldn't bet on it but it wouldn't be a surprise to see some team do so. He'll get at least one more shot in the NFL once he is free. Well, it's been fun but I've got things to get to on the homefront. Hope to see you all next week!
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