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Joe Lunardi

  (3:02 PM)

Happy Friday, everyone. I'm here (on time and without the technical problems of last week!) and ready to roll out your questions.

Brandon (Roanoke, VA)

Big Seminoles fan here. The Seminoles are 6-3 right now in the ACC play and 19-5 overall. With a tough stretch of games remaining on the schedule, how many ACC wins do you think it will take to propel them into the tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:03 PM)

I'm very impressed with Florida State this year. I'd say 10 ACC wins would be very safe for the Seminoles.

John (Missouri)

Joe, love the chats. Whats the highest you see Missouri being seeded, and whats the lowest you see them being seeded? I can't see them not being included in the tournament unless Anderson is forced to suspend half his team again.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:05 PM)

The most likely seed spread for Mizzou is 3-7. I'm taking the "over" and believe the Tigers end up as a No. 4 or No. 5.

Nick (Glendale, AZ0

With a big win last night....what does Arizona need to do the rest of the way to not sweat on Selection Sunday.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:06 PM)

With three straight road games after UCLA, I think Arizona is going to be sweating the rest of the way. A win tomorrow would be a very nice cushion, however.

T-dawg (DC)

Joe,The big east is brutal! If Georgetown played Oklahoma's schedule would we be talking about G'Town as a 1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:07 PM)

Not a great comparison, T-Dawg. Oklahoma is 9-0 against InsideRPI Top 50 teams. It's not like the Sooners have been ducking people.

Thane in Vermont

Do you realistically see Memphis as a 2 seed. I am a Memphis fan but I still have a hard time seeing them get this.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:08 PM)

More likely than not, Memphis will be passed for one of the final No. 2 seed positions. This week, most (if not all) of the contenders for those positions were losing.

Tyler (San Diego, CA)

How far do you think SDSU can go in the big dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:09 PM)

I'm not completely convinced San Diego State will make it. The Aztecs are in good position now, but their schedule down the stretch in no way assures them a top two finish in the Mountain West.

Ryan (Boston, MA)

What does BC have to do to ensure a birth in the dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:10 PM)

The Eagles are barely hanging onto an at-large position right now. Let's start with a win over Duke on Sunday and go from there.

Pete (NC)

How many Big East and ACC teams do you project will make the tournament as of today's resumes?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:11 PM)

Today's bracket has eight ACC teams and seven from the Big East, although most of the season has seen us with 8-9 from the Big East and 6-7 from the ACC. If history is any guide, the final numbers will more closely resemble the latter split.

John (Stevens Point, WI)

Joe, Notre Dame was extremely impressive against Loisville -- truly a statement game. If they finish strong and go 9-9 in the conference, do they make the tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:13 PM)

A 9-9 finish for the Irish would presume at least one win (and probably more) against NCAA-bound teams. Assuming no bad losses in that run, one additional win in the Big East tournament could get it done.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:15 PM)

Ohio State is a No. 5 seed today, which seems a little high looking ahead a month. With four of their next six on the road, the Buckeyes are likely to drop a line or two. I see them as a second-round team and not more than that this year.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:17 PM)

I think Pitt and UConn will split their two games, presumably with each team winning at home. The Panthers stay on the top line at least through Monday's bracket if they beat Cincinnati tomorrow.

Adam (Iowa)

Joe, whats your thoughts on the Missouri Valley Conference?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:18 PM)

In a word, Adam, disappointing. These are great basketball schools with great traditions. What we're not seeing are the big non-conference wins of recent years. How much of that is talent and how much is an inability to schedule those games is an off-season question.

Michael (Evansville, IN)

Hey Joe, I was thinking about your beloved Hawks and their possibilities of making the NCAA tourney. I noticed that, from the data I could find, there has been only one regular season champion in either the 7th or 8th best conference to miss the NCAA tourney over the past 11 years...that was Southern Miss in 2001 who was a co-champion of the CUSA.If St. Joes is the outright winner of the A-10 regular season (which is currently the 8th best conference), then aren't they historically speaking a virtual lock to make the tourney? Isn't the same true of New Mexico who could win the MVC (the seventh best league)???

Joe Lunardi

  (3:20 PM)

Those Hawks are no longer in the top spot of the Atlantic 10 thanks to a terrific defensive effort last night by Temple. The trend you identify is correct, but I doubt either Saint Joseph's or New Mexico will be in position this year to take advantage of it.

Tim (Cincinnati)

Mick the Joke Cronin is complaining to you about UC not being included in your latest field. Did you tell him that maybe he should schedule a non-conference game or two beyond the required rivals Memphis and Xavier, who of course he can't beat. I am tired of the Big East scheduling North Carolina Agricultural Institute and California AandM, etc. for their entire non conference and saying just because we play in the mighty Big East we deserve to be in! UC has beaten the bottom half of the Big East, and frankly I think they would be fourth place at best in the conference he makes fun of the A-10.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:22 PM)

I don't know Mick and haven't read/heard his complaints. I can say, however, that there are three Big East teams -- Cincy included -- among our current "First Four Out." Much can and will change over the next four weeks.

Alex (Princeton)

Do you think the Tigers can win the Ivy and finally make it back to the NCAAs?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:24 PM)

Alex, the big win over Cornell really surprised me. Having not yet seen Princeton (but seeing Cornell twice in person), it was doubly surprising. I have to think the Big Red will rebound and that the Tigers will stumble at least once or twice in Ivy play. In the meantime, Princeton controls its destiny due to the absence of a league tournament.

john (ny)

Please calm a nervous Syracuse fan down. Do you still see the Orange in the tournament come selection sunday?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:26 PM)

I have to think a .500 Big East record works for Syracuse this year, given the non-league wins over Florida, Kansas and Memphis. The Orange, as you well know, have a far great non-conference cushion than in other recent seasons.

Mike(louisville Ky)

Joe do you think louisville will bounce back after that humilating loss last night

Joe Lunardi

  (3:27 PM)

In a word, yes. Notre Dame figured to be desperate and Louisville was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Alan (Brussels)

Did Dayton lock up a spot (assuming no collapse) with the win over Xavier, or did the Charlotte loss hurt too much?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:29 PM)

Our new "tournament odds" program puts Dayton's NCAA chances at 65 percent, which seems low given their record and recent win over Xavier. The issue is bad losses (especially on the road). My non-mathematical view is that Dayton's odds are more likely in the 75-80 percent range.

Russel (West Lafayette, IN)

What will you do If Indiana goes on a miracle run and win's the Big Ten tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:30 PM)

Immediately play the lottery, Russel, because the odds for both of us would be about the same.

chad

have you ever been to rupp arena

Joe Lunardi

  (3:31 PM)

Sadly, no. It's probably the biggest gap in my personal "great arenas visited" resume.

Michael (Seattle, WA)

Could you explain why UCLA is ranked higher than UW in your seedings?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:33 PM)

Personally, I would not currently seed the teams that way. However, there is extensive history by the Committee in giving too much emphasis to the polls at the very top of the bracket. And my job is to tell you what the Committee will do in a certain set of circumstances, not necessarily what I think is right.

Joe who keeps trying to get attention

BC will make the tournament. Yes or No?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:34 PM)

No.

levi (richmond, va)

joe, for the second straight bracket you have 3 ACC teams in the same region. don't there have to be 9 teams from the acc for this to occur?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:35 PM)

Actually, no. The rules were changed a couple of years ago to allow for this if a conference sends more than six teams to the tournament. This rule hasn't yet come into play, but I consider it my sacred duty to test the limits of everything the Committee can or will do.

BJ (Omaha)

How many mid-major teams will get at-large bids this year come Selection Sunday?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:37 PM)

Hard to say until we know how the Davidsons and Butlers make out in their conference tournaments. Either way it's obviously not a good year for traditional mid-major conferences, so we shouldn't expect many additional "mids" in this year's NCAA field.

Rick (Dallas)

Joe, how does the committee use the RPI numbers?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:39 PM)

The RPI is one of several sets of data available to the Committee. It is given varying weight in the process as determined by each individual Committee member. Tactically, the most valuable use is in breaking down a teams season (e.g., record vs. 1-25, 1-50, 150-and-below, etc.).

Kurt (Cleveland, Ohio)

Would Kentucky have been on the outside looking in had they lost to Florida?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:39 PM)

Definitely.

Dallas (Richmond, VA)

What will you do when Virginia Tech wins the ACC?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:40 PM)

Wish I had bet on the Hokies.

mike.ohio

if dayton loses on the road to rhode island do you still have them in your bracket?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:42 PM)

Absolutely. First of all, that game is almost two weeks away. Secondly, I don't think "at Rhode Island" would be considered a bad loss this year.

tim (lancaster, pa)

do I have to wait until monday to see your next brackets?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:42 PM)

We just posted a new one today, Tim. Why don't you take a look at that one?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

Time for a rapid fire finish. Going to quickly take as many questions as I can in the next 10 minutes to close it out.

Ivan (DC)

Joe, the Illini were a 4 seed last bracket, now a 5 and haven't lost. What gives?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

Missouri passed them by beating Kansas.

Kevin (new orleans, la)

LSU isn't getting much recognition for a team with a two game lead in a major conference. If they continue their current level of consistent play, don't they have a very good chance at a seed greater than 8?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:44 PM)

Yes.

Diego ((Chicago))

Joe, what mid-major team has the best chance of making a serious run in the NCAA'S?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:44 PM)

Butler.

Bennett (Reading PA

If wisconsin loses to osu would they be out in your mind?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:45 PM)

In Monday's bracket, yes.

Tim (Orlando, FL)

As the inventor of Bracketology, do you get royalties every time the work Bracketology is mentioned? If so, how much do I owe you?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:45 PM)

Not enough, Tim!

Doug (Darien, IL)

But Illinois smoked Missouri on a neutral court. Doesn't head-to-head count for anything.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:45 PM)

Overall profile matters much, much more.

Bennett (Reading PA

Can michigan make the tourney?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:46 PM)

Yes, but I don't think it's going to happen.

Derek (Denver)

Is Utah State an at-large candidate, or only there because they lead the WAC?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:47 PM)

Both.

Mark (KY)

Quick yes or no. KENTUCKY makes NCAA tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:47 PM)

Yes.

Randy Bennett (moraga)

Is there any possible way my Gaels can get an at-large if Patty returns and shows he's back to full strength?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:48 PM)

Yes, it would have to be a fairly lengthy return for evaluation purposes.

Joe (Palo Alto, CA)

Creighton 27-2 as an at-large. Yes or No?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:48 PM)

Would to think long and hard about that one. Lean toward a "yes" answer.

Zach (vero beach, Fl)

Joe, if pitt wins this monday at uconn will they almost automatically be a lock for a #1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:49 PM)

Very, very close.

Will (NY)

Can Villanova get into the Philly regional?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:49 PM)

Yes. I'd put the odds at one-in-four.

Michael (Providence

Quick yes or no: Providence makes the NCAA tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:50 PM)

No.

Mike, Philly

Angelina Jolie or Jennifer Aniston?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:50 PM)

Angelina.

Kenny (Huntington, WV)

Does UAB have to beat Memphis to make the NCAA?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:51 PM)

At some point, yes.

J

Yes or No, Dayton as a cinderella team?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:51 PM)

Not unless they get to play at the UD Arena (which, of course, is against the rules).

Joe : Cincinnati, OH

Please explain to me how you have a 17-7 Kentucky team out of the weak SEC in over a 17-8 Cincinnati team coming out of the Big East.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:52 PM)

Kentucky has beaten two teams in the field compared to zero to Cincinnati.

J (Cleveland)

Yes or no: Bracketology is better than the BCS?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:52 PM)

No contest!!

Joe Lunardi

  (3:53 PM)

Over and out, gang. Just got a call from the wife that there is a squirrel in our living room (seriously). Probably a BCS plant....

Joe Lunardi

  (3:53 PM)

See you next week!