ESPN

Brendan Roberts

  (3:00 PM)

Good afternoon, everyone. Pitchers and catchers have reported; it's time for baseball. Let's get to some questions; I have a full queue already!

Martin Q Blank (Grosse Pointe)

Willy Taveras has a goal of 100 swipes. Is that possible on a team managed by Dusty Baker?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:01 PM)

Yes, 100 steals is unreachable, but it has nothing to do with Dusty Baker. He's Dusty's type of player, actually. But will he really get a full allotment of PT? I doubt it. That said, I don't know that we can dismiss him getting 50. And 50 steals are 50 steals ... he's going later in many mock drafts than I expected.

Pip (L.A.)

What is your take on the ridiculously low rankings of Huff(88) and Ludwick(118)? Is there an assumption among ESPN experts that their numbers were a fluke?? Is the 7th round too early for Ludwick??

Brendan Roberts

  (3:03 PM)

I don't know that No. 88 is ridiculously low for Huff; he's at a deep position, where his numbers are easier to find. But yes, that seems low for Ludwick. In general, we must have been down on him, but I'd definitely take him before that, and couldn't stop you from taking him in the seventh round.

Phil (O.C.)

Which player ranked in the 140?s do you anticipate as a better sleeper option?Bradley or Delgado??

Brendan Roberts

  (3:04 PM)

Oh boy, two major wild cards there. Better sleeper? I think it'd come down to which one I'd take first, and I guess that'd be Bradley, mostly because you figure he'll perform when healthy and he plays at a more shallow position than Delgado.

Mike (Tampa, FL)

How do you see Kinsler coming back from injury? Similar 07 numbers with a few less steals?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:05 PM)

I haven't heard anything about a setback, so as far as I know, he's healthy following hernia surgery. I foresee a big year for him, and yes, maybe with a few less steals and a good 5-7 more homers. He hit 41 doubles last year, and a few of those should turn into homers.

Brendan (R.I.)

Mark teixeira, is he going to have a huge year, or will the New York pressure get to him?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:06 PM)

Huge year. A laid-back guy like this shouldn't be affected. I'll be arguing that he'll be better than Ryan Howard a bit down the road.

Nicholas (NYC)

All things considered, is headley's upside greater than that of yunel escobar's for a keeper?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:07 PM)

Hmm, yes, I'd say it is, even though Yunel is at a more shallow position. That said, I'm not crazy about either guy for this season, which definitely should come into play when selecting keepers.

Drew (Mpls)

10th round keeper - I kept Soto over McLouth. Is that crazy?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:07 PM)

Not at all. McLouths are easier to find than Sotos.

Buddy (PA)

I know it's a bad idea to pay for saves in a draft. Can you toss out a few names of closers that will come at a discounted price and will post solid numbers?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:09 PM)

Yes. Here are a few I like: Matt Lindstrom, Joel Hanrahan, Chris Perez, Frank Francisco, Chad Qualls. Also, don't forget about Trevor Hoffman and Huston Street. I think both have something left, and fantasy owners are down on 'em right now.

Pelc, NYC

Would you rather keep Votto or Scherzer in a 5x5 Roto league format?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:10 PM)

I like both guys, but I'm planting my flag on Votto to be the true breakout player (even as many as 35 homers) this season. I'd say him. I think he's more likely to have the big year THIS year.

John (Chicago)

Where are your favorite places to watch Spring Training in Florida and Arizona? Will there even BE Florida Spring Training 10 years from now, or will they all move to Arizona?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:11 PM)

Hmm, not fantasy, but a good question, as I've covered spring training for many years. I think I like it better in FLA, but definitely more convenient in ARI. And I don't see teams leaving FLA altogether. Maybe centralizing around Tampa and Orlando, but not leaving it. Then again, what do I know about that?

Tim (Chicago)

Hey Brendan - I have Lincicum this year at $10. Can extend him for $5/year, but window closes forever once season starts. I am thinking of extending 3 yrs so I would have him at 25 thru 2012. The top 12 pitchers in our league have $25 salary or higher. What do you think?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:12 PM)

Yeah, I'd do it.

Mike (Londonderry,NH)

Brendan, you seem high on Votto. In a keeper league would you take Big Marky Tex with the first pick after keepers or wait and take Votto later on??

Brendan Roberts

  (3:12 PM)

I'd still get my hands on Teixiera any way I could, and then worry about Votto later. Votto could be a huge producer; Teix already is.

Kev (NYC)

Are you taking Arod or Hanley?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:13 PM)

I gotta tell ya, the more motivated I think he becomes, the more I like A-Rod each day. But I still give Han-Ram the slight edge at No. 1.

joe (iowa)

we all know sizemore is a fantasy stud, but will the BA get more consistent? he K's an awful lot for a leadoff guy. Who's most likely to MOVE from the leadoff spot: Grady, Soriano, or Reyes?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:16 PM)

I don't think the BA will improve. Maybe .270 tops. He does strike out a lot and chases a lot of balls. Was reading a scouting report recently on him that he can hit a lot of bad balls. He also misses a lot of good pitches. So pitchers aren't real sure how to pitch him, other than try to trick him. His approach means homers and doubles will remain in order, but so will K's and a low AVG. But we shouldn't complain. At least he's not a .250 hitter, which actually hurts the team aggregate quite a bit more.

Kyle (HI)

Do either A. Cunningham or E. Patterson play/put up decent numbers in Oakland this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:17 PM)

The way I'm seeing it, the outfield starters are slated to be Holliday, Buck and Ryan Sweeney, with Cunningham filling out the fourth role. So whereas I don't think either will do much this year, at least Cunningham will get more of a chance to.

Carlito, Bronx

What are your expectations for Furcal this season?? He was awesome before he got hurt last season.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:19 PM)

That's a tough one, Carlito. I've been looking at any sign the last few weeks to love him or like him -- a report of back pain, signs of the back pain being gone, conditioning praise -- and I've gotten neither. Therefore the injury still enters my mind, enough to where I wouldn't take him early. But I'd lean more toward liking him than not.

Sarah (Santa Fe)

Please answer - I was sure I was going with Cabrera with the No. 4 pick, but now you've got me thinking of Texiera instead. What to do?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:20 PM)

Oh, they're mighty close. But I do still have Miggy ranked one spot higher. I heard he was lights-out in his first BP session (although that carries little bearing).

Pip (L.A.)

Help me settle a debate, My buddy thinks CC is an elite SP this year, I think he's good, but I don't think he'll end up in the top 15 of SPs. With his much tougher division to pitch in and all those innings last year. What is your take?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:21 PM)

Top 15? Yeah, I think he's that good. I think the move to the AL (and AL East) will have some effect, but his game logs show that when he's on, it doesn't matter who he's facing.

JV (Fantasyland)

Carl Crawford in the 3rd round or a similar numbers guy, Johnny Damon in the 13th round?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:21 PM)

Damon is the better bargain, for sure.

Stew(LV,NV)

whats your take on LaPorta in '09 ?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:23 PM)

I've never really been that high on him in the first place. I just didn't see big power numbers. He seems more like maybe a Lyle Overbay type to me offensively, though I could be wrong. Either way, I don't expect much in '09, at least until the Indians clear space for him. I hear they're looking at Garko in left field because of Hafner, Shoppach and V-Mart.

Brian (Orlando)

What kind of numbers do you see J. upton putting up this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:25 PM)

Maybe .255-24-80, but with 160-plus K's and only maybe 5-7 steals. He has some major upside, but I don't think he's ready for hit for average or steal bases. Thus, I'm not taking him at the spot you'd probably have to take him to get him.

Erik (ATL)

BR... great chat session this afternoon. I've got a bit of a hang-up on my 7th and 8th keepers for a 5x5 H2H roto-like league (roto rules on a weekly basis vs only one manager each week).I can't decide between Soria, Burnett, and Ludwig. M-Cabrera, Berkman, McCann, Ramirez, Johan, and Peavy are my no brainer keepers.I'm thinking of keeping Soria and Ludwig, but what do you think?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:25 PM)

I'm in agreement with you. Definitely safer options.

Michael (Chicago)

Sarah from Santa Fe's comment notwithstanding...would you really take Big Tex 4th or 5th..over guys like Wright, Reyes, Rollins and others?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:27 PM)

Good point, Michael. Aw, what the heck, I might as well re-post my Top 10: Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore, Miguel CabreraMark Teixeira, Johan Santana.

Adam (Iowa)

Brendan, what are your thoughts on Ryan Dempster? Can he have a repeat of last season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:29 PM)

I just don't see it happening, Adam. I know he made some mechanical adjustments, but I just don't see him having that kind of control again after a full season of starting. He jumped from 66 innings to 206 innings, and I think it finally shows a bit in his second season of starting. Maybe in the middle rounds, but I wouldn't project him to get anywhere near those '08 numbers.

Don (NJ)

Obviously Kemp benefits greatly from Manny being there. How much better/worse is he with/without Manny?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:31 PM)

Manny definitely helps, but other than maybe a few runs/RBIs, I don't think it affects him much. He actually had his best months in 2008, in almost every offensive category (including steals), before Manny arrived.

Sam (swissland)

What do you think of ellsbury vs crawford? To me they look pretty similar, and ellsbury has more room to get better and maybe less injury prone? Is crawford the dead cert pick over ellsbury??

Brendan Roberts

  (3:33 PM)

You raise a good point here, Sam. I like Ellsbury just as much, if not more, than Crawford, even though you'd probably get him a round later. Therefore I'd probably shoot for him in the early rounds instead of Crawford, and you can probably get him one (but not two) round(s) later.

Jake (River Falls, WI)

Will Fred Lewis be more valuable batting leadoff or in the 5th spot for fantasy purposes?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:34 PM)

Hmm, I've never heard of him possibly being moved to fifth. Maybe I missed that. If that's the case, it's probably a wash. He'd get more runs batting leadoff, and more RBIs batting fifth. If the guys behind him could hit better, then fifth, but they're light on the bottom.

Dan (Grand Rapids, MI)

Dumb question, but is the drop off at SS as significant as it appears after the top 3? Or will guys like Tulo and S Drew have big years?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:36 PM)

I hit this in detail in my SS preview. It's a decent drop-off to Tulo and Drew (because the Big 3 are so good), and then another big drop-off after that. So I guess I'd say the Big 3 are worth every penny you'd pay to get them, and the other two (esp. Drew) are nice fallback options to be sure and get.

Jon Wangler (CF)

Brendan, tell me my boy Mark Derosa is going to put up some big numbers this year in Cleveland.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:37 PM)

Sorry, Jon, I just can't do it. The impression is that The Jake is a hitters' park, but it just hasn't played that way in recent seasons. Wrigley has, and DeRosa hit well there. Plus, I don't think the Tribe's lineup is as good (unless they surprise). Thus, I think DeRosa takes a step back this season.

Rob (Boston)

Do you think Lester continues to progress or takes a step back this season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:38 PM)

I think Lester is in for a nice season. He has ace stuff and will rack up great numbers across the board. Don't look for him to win 20 games because high pitch counts might force him out of games after six innings, but I think he's one of this season's top mid-round sleepers.

Zach (PA)

When you mention the drop off at shortstop in Dan's question, where does Alexei Ramirez fit in? Is he between the big 3 and Tulo and Drew?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:40 PM)

Good reminder, Zach. Yes, forgot to mention Tulo and Drew aren't the only ones in that second tier. I'd put Jeter, Furcal and Alexei in there, too. And Michael Young just a step below them. After that is the dropoff.

Tina(sac,ca)

2nd base is more scarce though ?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:43 PM)

Yes, I believe 2B is more scarce than SS because they don't have the elite talent SS has. Utley could prove there still, and Kinsler is close, but 2B is definitely weaker than in past seasons because of the losses of Upton, Kent, Theriot and down seasons from Cano, Freddy Sanchez and others. Keep that in mind on draft day.

Mitch (St. Paul)

Will Dayan Viciedo make the team or will he play everyday in triple A?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:44 PM)

I think he's headed for Triple-A, but I really like the kid and think he'll make an impact in the second half. Granted, maybe this season it will be little more than a Wladimir Balentien-like impact, but he's definitely on my short list among minor leaguers. Should be on yours, too.

Mark (Philadelphia)

Who Will Have Better Season, Griffey Jr Or Pat Burrel?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:44 PM)

Burrell.

joe (iowa)

How much importance do you put on drafting a second catcher? Aren't most of the guys you would take in that spot guys that'll end up being on the waier wire anyway?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:46 PM)

Yes, a good tip, Joe. I don't place much importance on it, often treating it like a kicker in fantasy football (if the league even has a second C). I like to have one good, reliable one, because streaming two spots are rough, but yeah, there's not much between, say, the 13th-ranked catcher and the hot hand on the waiver wire. Also, remember that because most catchers get fewer at-bats and PAs than other positions, they tend to make less of an impact in batting average even when they do well.

Jason (VA)

Brendan- Thoughts on Utley this year? Is it worth getting him in the 2nd round of a 16 team league?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:47 PM)

Obviously I'd wait till the last day to decide that, but considering the lack of talent at 2B, and that it's a 16-team league, yeah, I think you're good there. Even if he misses two weeks, that's still 24 weeks of Chase Utley!

KC (Albany)

Assuming that Manny does FINALLY land in LA, would you rather select him or his teammate Kemp as your first OF? Thank You.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:49 PM)

Oh wow, that's a good question. Talk about two very different options. I'd probably hold off on taking Manny, then swing to the next round to take Kemp. I think he's much safer.

Bob ( Iowa City)

Brendan can you give me some big names that will be drafted high that you think will be a bust this season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:51 PM)

Hmm, I can't find my "bust" list at the moment, but two guys come to mind to me: Vlad and Peavy. I worry about Vlad's injuries, and I'm afraid this trade talk will affect Peavy, then he'll be traded to a less favorable park. Just my hunches, though.

Brucie!, NYC

What is Jay Bruce's value this season? People were falling all over each other to pick him up for his legendary first week, and disappointing remainder of first season, and i traded for him as a keeper. Now, i am considering him releasing him in favor of Alexei Ramirex, Ellsbury, and Soto. Worth holding on to Bruce ahead of any of these guys?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:54 PM)

Hmm, to me, he's not worth holding on to for ANY of those guys. Yes, people tend to forget Bruce is only 21. That's all. He still has a lot of growing to do, and I don't think he's ready to hit for average or steal bases. I see a .260-26-90 guy, and that's just nothing special these days, I'm sorry. Gimme a guy who won't hurt my average and will help me more in a certain category.

Bonnie (Hartford)

If both Alexie Ramirez and Chris davis were available to fill your empty 2B/SS and 1B/3B slots respectively, who's your pick? Thank You!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:55 PM)

Alexei. That 2B and SS versatility will be huge.

Shaun(NYC)

What are your thoughts on Rollins this year? Still capable of 20/35 or is his power gone?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:56 PM)

Oh, I think he's still capable of that. People look at the 11 homers and think he's on the decline, but he also was tentative while hitting with ankle pain early and dropped 160 at-bats. I see him getting back to, oh, 19-21 homers.

George (Sioux City)

Brendan, are you high on Lastings Milledge and Eiljah Dukes this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:58 PM)

I really like Milledge now that he is done (and did admirably) in his "growth year." Dukes, I'm not so sure of. I'm not convinced he can stay healthy (and/or focused mentally) to stay in the lineup, and I don't see him hitting anything but maybe .235.

Brucie!, NYC

dare i ask the same question about Joba?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:59 PM)

Yes, you dare! And dare I say I'm still not convinced he can stay healthy and pitch effectively as a starter until I've seen it first? Yes, I will say that! I just have a bad feeling about him.

joe (iowa)

What do you predict seeing from Wang following the foot injury?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:00 PM)

About the same as before his foot injury -- decent wins (thanks to high stamina and a good offense), mediocre percentage numbers, bad K numbers. All that said, I might actually end up with him in more leagues this season because people seem to be forgetting about him. Definitely a good lower-middle-/late- round pick.

Rob (Omaha)

How are you feeling about the Giants pitchers this year Brendan?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:02 PM)

Last one, guys. I like Lincecum a lot, although not any more than I liked him end of last season (if that means anything to ya), I think Cain is worn down and won't be that ace we expected, I like Sanchez at No. 5 thanks to his K's and decent ERA ... don't like Lowry. I better stop there; there are too many to discuss.

Brendan Roberts

  (4:03 PM)

OK, guys, I gotta run. It's been another lightning-fast hour, and some great questions this week. I'll be back again next week -- Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel.