Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some free agency!
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
And the combine and draft, too!
Nate (San Antonio, TX)
Given the past record of the NFC South, the team that finishes last, finishes first the next year. How do you feel about the Saints chances in 09.
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
OK, we'll talk some NFC South for a moment. The Bucs will be in transition, so that will help NO, but the Falcons should be better and Carolina could be a monster team. I have trouble seeing the Saints winning the division but if they improve defensively, I could see a Wild Card in their 2009 future.
I heard kiper saying if Malcolm Jenkins has a poor 40 time he could drop into the 15 to 20 pick range. That being said any chance he falls to the vikings if no ot is worth drafting there? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
That's a big maybe on both fronts, as I believe one of the OTs may fall a bit after the combine.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
How much weight should teams put on the combine results?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
I think the combine is used more as a way to cull out players than it is to grade them higher. In other words, if an OL does fewer bench presses than expected, a team might question his strength and not take him as high. That's a pretty good way to handle the combine and I think it's how most teams do, so I think they weigh it out properly.
When it comes to mock drafts, why can no one agree on Michael Oher. I have seen him as high as the #2 pick and as low as the 32nd pick I'm wondering why?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Part of it comes from the fact that there are a number of quality OT prospects out there. Add that to last year's bumper crop of OTs that took many teams out of that market and it almost assures some OT is going to drop in the draft.
Scott From Worcester MA
I a Raiders fan living in New England. It can be hard getting Raider News. What do you think they will do with pick #7. Thanks
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
It'll likely be either WR or O line. It may depend on if Crabtree gets down to them. If so, he's almost certain to be the pick but if not, I'd bet they go for a big blocker.
With Baltimore placing the Franchise tag on Suggs any chance of Ray Lewis or Bart Scott coming to the NY Jets and Rex Ryan?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Lewis in green and white might not be out of the question but I still wouldn't be surprised to see Baltimore find a way to pony up some cash for him. If he did go to the Big Apple, he'd help a young defense find it's way. In other words, he could be the Jack Reynolds of the late 2000s.
Did Oakland overpay for Nnamdi and do they have any chance of improving their OL through free agency?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
No way they overpaid for Nnamdi. As much as I think the gap between Asomugha and the rest of the CB pack is not nearly as large as some suggest, he's still a dominant CB. As far as improving their OL through FA, it won't be any big improvements. There just aren't a lot of quality FA O linemen out there but since Oakland has a lot of holes to fill, I wouldn't be shocked to see him at least go for some quality depth.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Do you think Minnesota can bolster its secondary via the FA route and if so, who out there do you see as a good fit?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
I think they could but their secondary is in pretty good shape right now and I don't think they are in the market to pony up big cash. Look for any improvements in the secondary to come via the draft.
given the situation with Matt Cassel and Brady could he be trade on draft day or will it pan out differntly ?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
As it stands right now, I think NE would hold onto Cassel as an insurance policy. They certainly aren't going to trade him away cheap and might want to hold onto him until it is 100% clear Brady is back at full strength. In other words, they'll be no rush to trade him.
Luis Holland, Mi
Wr T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be a free agent, are the eagles really interested to sign him and would they be the front runners to sign him?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Housh to the Eagles make me think of the comment I read by their president when he said that they already have a WR who can be a #1 in Jackson. Since Curtis is a solid #2, they seem to be set there so I'm not looking for them to go all out to sign Housh.
Would James Sanders for NE, Olshansky from SD, and Bart Scott be good FA's for Denver to go after?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
The Broncos need size on D and the latter two would help them some in that department. They also need a good ballhawk so look for them to target someone in that respect.
Ryan (San Diego)
You like the move of tagging Sproles to keep him from hitting the market in order to work out a long term deal? Now just have to get LT to stay
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Hey, it's a great insurance policy against the possibility that LT has turned the corner to the downside of his career. I do like it.
Burwell (Addison, PA)
Can you think of any quality free agent OL that the Steelers might be willing to sign? By quality, I mean significantly better than Sean Mahan.
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Birk and Saturday are both FA centers who might be upgrades, but they might be better suited to go into the draft to solve that problem. Only caveat is if they think bad adjustments were part of the blocking issues this year, in which case a one-year vet deal might be appropriate.
What position do you think the Jets needed to address most in the draft? I think their biggest need is at CB but they also need to improve at the WR and QB position. What are your thoughts on how they should fill those gaps?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
It's tough to say about the CB situation because they might be in pretty good shape there if Lowery's fall-off last year was an anomaly. His metrics weren't horrible (a YPA just over 7 yards) so I'm leaning towards he comes back strong and NY goes for help elsewhere.
Do you think the patriots should improve their front seven to get more pressure or try to get one of the talented corners in this draft?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
I'd be shocked if they didn't try to upgrade their LBs first and foremost. Sintim could be a good fit for them there.
Jonathan (Brooklyn, NY)
Who should Mangini & the Browns be targeting early in the draft?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
They are actually in good shape in many areas so they may not have a big need spot. Having said that, I think they'll go for someone in the front seven on D.
CJ from Georgia
Should the panthers go after a DE since peppers was tagged. Or should they get something else?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
I think they need to go WR for a long-term solution there.
Chris (Ashland, Ore)
Hi KC - with so many teams switching to 3-4, who are the best 3-4 NTs and DEs on the free agent market?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
There aren't a lot of NT candidates on the FA market, or at least none who separate themselves (that is unless you include Haynesworth as a potential NT). The aformentioned Olshansky is probably the best DE out there.
Michael Scott, Scranton PA
Hey KC, what are the eagles chance that they trade up for a big time player in the top ten, who would they take.
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Philly is priming to make one last big run at the Super Bowl but they'll only aim for the top 10 if they thought they could find someone to help right now. In other words, they'll only do it if a CB or D linemen falls.
KC, I want to go on record as saying your old boy Considine will prove to be a steal for someone. He he a poor 2007, but was solid in the sub packages. Some team is going to get a very heady, athletic starter.
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Hey, maybe he'll be next year's Jim Leonhard! If so, shoot me a line in a chat after it happens and I'll be sure to give you big time props!
Boldin had change of heart is that true? he wants to stay in AZ?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
I've said this before about Anquan and it bears repeating - he isn't a matchup buster the way that Fitz is. His YPA totals against good CBs that past two years is barely above 6. He knows he needs a Fitz on the other side to put up these great totals and that's probably why he may be considering staying for a bit less.
Mark, Millington TN
Thank you for sharing some time with us. I have been reading that the Bucs are about $40 million under the cap. What free agents do you think they should go after.
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Defense, defense, defense. They have some offensive issues but that defense has some age holes they need to work out. Once they fix those, they obviously need some young WR help, so that would be move #2, but there isn't a lot in the way of really good FA WRs, so it might be a couple of smaller moves on that front.
Rich (San Fran)
We're always talking about who is the #1 at QB or OT.....what about the DE's?! Who's your number one DE in this draft?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
Everette Brown is tops now but his combine performance could have an impact on that. As long as he holds his own there, I think he'll be the first DE taken.
Broad Street Brian (Tackleless in Philly)
Do the metrics babck up resigning Tra Thomas or John Runyan to a 2 year deal? That way we only haver to use one first rounder on a lineman.
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
In Philly the key is if you can pass block and they both had some issues in that area last year. Having said that, I think the Eagles need to sign at least one of them because they are in that 1-2 year Super Bowl window.
Julian From Boston MA
The Dolphins have three top 64 picks and $20 million under the cap where do they go with picks and money Peppers and Housh and best Corner in the draft??
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
I don't think Parcells is the kind of guy to go for the big dollar FAs. He's more of a young talent afficiando (sic?) for most positions. I think they'll target some quality starter types but won't go overboard throwing the money at one player.
Is Leroy Hill worth the tag?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
No but Seattle didn't want to let him go and had to make that move to ensure it didn't happen.
Hey KC....any RT in FA that the Niners could pick up to start opposite Staley? Should we also expect them to go after a pass rusher with pick number 10?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Heck, I think they need to move Staley back to RT. He was possibly the worst pass blocker at that position last year. I know it sounds crazy but if I were them and one of the top OTs were still on the board (a very possible scenario), I'd make that as my pick.
Cosmo (Anytown, USA)
Taking 2 lineman? Not taking a WR or a RB on the first day? I'm just trying to figure out how Andy Reid can ruin my spring like he ruins my winters. Can you think of anything else?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Man, all Andy has done is take the team to five conference championships and one Super Bowl. You'd think he'd get some slack!
Chris (Ashland, Ore)
Hi KC - to me, cutting Dre Bly was a crazy move given how many holes Denver has on its defense and how well he played for us despite no pass rush. What can Bly still do, and who can supplement Denver's awfully thin CB ranks?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
Bly's metrics the past couple of years have been terrible. I think Denver was approaching that move as much from a long-term perspective as they were fixing the short-term issue. There are some young CBs out there Denver will likely go for who would be upgrades over Bly.
Matt (Madison, WI)
Hey KC, I'd love to get a question answered that I haven't seen a whole lot of discussion over. Would the Lions taking B.J. Raji #1 be too much of a reach? Our tiny d-line was HORRIBLE last year.
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
I'd say yes if only because Detroit has so many issues to resolve. I take the Oakland approach of building with O linemen and CBs first and Detroit has huge needs in both of those spots. They obviously also need a QB and Stafford looks like he'd be a big improvement.
Brian (Carleton MI)
KC~ you really think Losman would be good with the Jets?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
If they would use him in the right way, absolutely. If Ryan asked him to dink and dunk, then the answer would be no, but I'm not sold that Kellen Clemens is a good dink/dunk QB either.
Luis Holland, Mi
Why has everyone forgotten Chad OCHO CINCO. Is he gonna get traded still?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Luis, with the number of times you posted the question, I think you'd pull a Mike Ditka and trade the entire draft day lineup for him if you were a GM! As far as #85 getting traded, let me ask this: would you pay top price for him after last year?
Patrick (San Fran)
Did you say the Browns were in good shape in many areas? Seems to me they are a 6-10 team at best.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
I like their O line and receivers. Their defense had really good forced bad decision totals and if their CBs are healthy, they are in fairly good shape there. A good QB and a coach who keeps the team focused could win 8 games with this lineup in most years.
Wow, a lot of strange tagged players...it seems many of them will be getting a massive increase in pay next year..I know it's one year but guys like Sproles, and A. Bryant, weren't even playing the year before and were basically minimum pay...now they are the 2-3 at their position. I could see A. Haynesworth and a couple other's, but what's the deal with some of these. thanks
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
It's more a matter of teams wanting to hoard certain talents instead of franchising players who are true top fives at their position. It can also just buy them some negotiating time to get a big deal signed later once the rest of the roster gets determined.
How good is Kelly Washington? He didnt get on the field much in NE. Is he a possible answer for #2 WR in Buff?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
His receiving metrics over the years have been less than stellar, so I'd have to say no on that. He does have good ST skills so he'll likely find a roster spot somewhere on that basis.
Buddy (Birmingham, AL)
Do you see Sanchez going to the Jets? (please, please, please, I beg of you, say NO)
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
OK, I'll say no, even though I think it's possibility. Don't want to have another burst of people talking about jumping off of bridges like we did last year.
I doubt the Giants will resign Derrick Ward. Where do you think he ends up? I think he's most effective as part of a duo.
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Where he's been most effective in the past is on slant plays, so he needs to go to a team that can effectively run those plays. I think his best move would be to stay behind the best O line in the league in NY but odds are he ends up elsewhere.
KC, Its been awhile! WZUP! How well do you think Elvis Dumervil will do comverting over from a DE to a OLB in a 3-4 defesne? I think he will do better!
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Hey there, it's good to see you back in a chat! And let me say "thank you very much" in my best Elvis voice for mentioning Dumervil. He's a great pass rusher and moving him to an OLB spot is a perfect way to showcase his skills.
Do you think Miami is being too cheap with their UFAs? Supposedly they will let all of them test the FA market since all their offers have been rejected as they were considered too low. The players think they can get more elsewhere. Losing Goodman, Bell, Carey, Hill, Crowder in one season? How is that rebuilding!?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I hear where you are coming from but let's see who the Fins get in before judging their talent evaluation prowess. None of the guys you mentioned are great players and Miami is taking the chance they can find better players. I wouldn't bet against them being successful in that respect.
Chris (Ashland, Ore)
KC - you like Oakland's policy of building the offensive line and the CBs first? Oakland is terrible, has a lousy offensive line and their CBs don't matter because you can run on them or expose their safeties. Except for the O-Line part, you could say the same about Denver. On the other hand, NE and Pitt prioritize the DL and let any old guy play CB. They're much more successful. Give me a quality DL over a CB any day.
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
The reason the OL/CB philosophy is used is because subpar players at those positions can lose a team games faster than subpar players at just about any other sans QB.
What Andy did in the past is nice, but we don't want an Atlanta Braves situation (minus the title of course). Andy's personnel moves/coaching moves haven't been great lately no matter how big the media lovefest with him his, because he's a "good guy".
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
Mike, I'm betting a lot of fans of some really good teams (e.g. Dallas, Minnesota, Washington, etc.) would love to have had the success Philly's had the past few years. They get farther than most teams on a consistent basis and that's why Andy gets some slack. If he starts losing games on a consistent basis, believe me, the press will let him have it.
Hey KC, been looking over the FA lists vs. cap issues for teams. Have you run any blocking metrics on the Falcons' due of Dahl/Clabo? And how much of an upgrade would Brown (as G, can later move to C when McClure retires) and Carey or Barnes be? In other words, should the Falcons pursue a FA lineman or two? Thanks!
KC Joyner (5:03 PM)
Greg, you've been really patient in posting so I wanted to make sure I got your question in before the end of the chat. I've only run a few games of metrics on the Falcons O line thus far but based on what I saw I don't think they have an urgent need to make a change. In other words, they don't have to pay top dollar for some of the good but not great FA O linemen out there if they don't want to.
Chris (Ashland, Ore)
I don't know KC, as a fan of the Broncos my entire life, I strongly believe that a pass rush is more important for pass defense than good corners are. I mean at worst you can play cover-2 and let nearly anyone play CB. You can't take a shmoe and make him rush the passer. c.f.John Engelberger, Ebenezer Ekhuban, Jarvis Moss etc.
KC Joyner (5:06 PM)
One can lead to the other in either way. Oakland for a long time didn't have a dominant pass rushing line (although they did have some solid pass rush specialists) but they had great CBs like Willie Brown, Mike Haynes and Lester Hayes. Those guys gave the D line more time to get to the QB. Denver has one good pass rusher and only one really good CB and that's why this isn't working for them. I do agree they need bulk up front, so going for size in FA and the draft may be a big plus for them.
Mac (Atlanta, Ga)
Do you think the Saints will target a linebacker or corner with the 14th pick? Maybe Rey Maualuga, Malcolm Jenkins, or Vontae Davis?
KC Joyner (5:08 PM)
I could see that happening. If it does, and if their young CBs who played so great early on last year are healthy and repeat their performance in 2009, it might be more than enough for the Saints to back up my "NO for WC" statement at the beginning of the chat.
Jerry Angelo (Halas Hall)
What do I address first, WR or RT?
KC Joyner (5:09 PM)
Probably WR if only because there is some depth at the tackle position in this year's draft. Well, Mrs. Scientist is cooking up some chow mein so I've got to hit the dinner trail. Hope to see you all next week!