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Joe Lunardi

  (4:01 PM)

Hey, gang. Let's get right to some bracket talk.

E.J.: Queens, New York

I was a little surprised at the seeding of Arizona State being so low, especially when they beat UCLA twice, and no really bad losses except . I personally think have an overall better resume and when using the "eye test" are better than Cal and Tennessee especially

Joe Lunardi

  (4:02 PM)

I probably had ASU too low this past Monday, E.J. You'll see the Sun Devils as a No. 5 seed in today's new bracket.

Jacoby (Highland,Ut)

Hey Joe, who do you see winning the Mountain West this year. Personally I think BYU has come out of its funk and will win it.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:03 PM)

I think the schedule favors Utah, Jacoby, although both should be NCAA teams next month.

Jack (Atl, GA)

Joe, how do you see the regions shaking out. Based upon travelling distance, UConn should go to Boston, Pitt to Indy, Oklahoma to Arizona; and UNC to Memphis. However, if Pitt sweeps UConn and wins BE, is it "fair' to place the Big East champ in Big 10 country, while UConn receives Boston? Pitt might have to unfairly run through Purdue and Michigan State in Indianapolis. If Pitt wins BE, doesn't Pitt, rather than UConn, deserve # 1 seed in Boston?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:05 PM)

Hard to say, Jack, especially given the recent comments from the Committee about trying even harder to keep teams closer to home. What I do think is that mileage will be more of a factor in questions like the Pitt example than the more nebulous concern of playing in "Big Ten country."

Elliot; Silverdale, Washington

Memphis: No. 5?! Are you kidding me? Once again their cupcake conference has boosted their ranking in the polls. Maybe I'm not looking far enough into their team to see the talent, but please elaborate about how this is possible.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:07 PM)

You're definitely not looking closely enough, Elliot. Memphis is a terrific team -- not quite the same level as the past two years -- but capable of making another long, long run in the NCAA tournament.

Mike in Washington, D.C.

Does the committee really consider conference tournament games as they would any regular season game or are they evaluated in a separate category?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:09 PM)

Depends on what's at stake. For instance, if the eighth and ninth place Big East teams are playing on a neutral court for possibly one NCAA spot, then that game is exceptionally important. If it's two teams already in the tourney not fighting for something like a No. 1 seed, not so much.

Snake: (Philadelphia, PA)

Can Temple make the NCAA Tournament without winning the A10 Championship?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:11 PM)

Possible, Snake, but unlikely. I would have said extremely unlikely a week ago, but since then a whole host of bubble teams have been losing while the Owls just keep hanging around. A win at Dayton next week is probably essential to Temple's at-large hopes.

David (Kansas City, MO)

If Mizzou can get a 2 seed, do you think they could get there first round games in KC?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:12 PM)

That would almost certainly be the case, David.

Dave (IL)

Joe - If the mvc does well this weekend in the bracketbuster games, can you see a 25 win Creighton or Ill. State get an at-large bid?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:13 PM)

Either would need an outright MVC regular-season championship for a decent shot at an at-large bid. Creighton is the better team.

Andrew (Highland Park, New Jersey)

Joe, if Kentucky ends up winning the SEC East and the SEC Tournament (I know, wishful thinking), is a 6 seed or even better out of the question?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:14 PM)

And if my aunt had a beard....

Brett (Atlanta)

Please tell me your next bracket will finally stop having any other SEC teams seeded higher than LSU. SEC teams are all playing each other, and LSU has a full three game lead over second place. That tells me by the games played on the court that they are clearly the best SEC team. I don't care what RPI says. Use RPI for determining whether LSU deserves a higher seed than say Purdue, California or Davidson. When we have a body of work between the same teams then use that.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:15 PM)

You wish is my command, David. LSU was the first SEC team into today's projected field.

Jeff (Royal Oak, MI)

Will 20 wins be enough to get Michigan an at-large bid or will they need 21 wins since one of their wins is against a non-D1 opponent?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:16 PM)

There is no magic number, Jeff, and it certainly wouldn't be 20. So many teams play so many more games than in the past that there is nothing special about it.

Rory: (Villanova, PA)

What does Villanova need to do in order to play at the Wachovia Center in the tournament? And what kind of seed would they get if they won the Big East Tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:16 PM)

At least a No. 3 seed, Rory. We currently have the 'Cats as a No. 4 in Miami. There are worse places to go in March!

Ben (Lincoln, NE)

Ok Joe, just once I would like to hear the logic behind how Kansas St. is ahead of Nebraska when they have identical conference records, Nebraska has a higher RPI, a much better SoS, they both beat Texas and Mizzou, and when they played head to head, the Huskers won by 22. I must not understand, please explain it to me.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:20 PM)

At this moment we're talking about two teams not particularly close to the NCAA field. K-State is No. 73, eight spots away, and Nebraska is at No. 79. My reasoning is based on K-State having compiled its 6-5 Big 12 record against a tougher in-conference schedule (to date).

Dick (SLC)

why are Utah's two bad losses (SW baptist and idaho st) being overlooked? wouldnt those losses sort of offset the lsu and gonzaga games? they have 7 losses

Joe Lunardi

  (4:21 PM)

Who says they are being overlooked? Without them, the Utes would be an even better seed.

Justin in Cincy, OH

Is a 2 seed out of the question for Purdue? If so what would u guess they would recieve?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:22 PM)

Not out of the question, Justin, with the Boilers still alive for a Big Ten regular-season title.

John (Charleston)

Memphis is only 1-2 against the RPI top 25, 4-3 against the top 50. They are just coasting through an inferior conference and moving up because Big East and ACC teams are bound to lose some games when they're getting a huge challenge game after game. Memphis may be a quality team that can do plenty of damage in March, but they've passed multiple teams that could have done what they have in C-USA.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:24 PM)

Memphis also has the third-best ASM (Adjusted Scoring Margin) in the country, behind only North Carolina and Pitt. ASM takes strength of schedule into account and has been my most reliable metric for a long time.

Chris (NYC)

Joey Brackets, do you see any possibility for a "loaded" regional bracket? What I mean is having a situation where a team like UConn is a 1, L'ville a 2, Duke a 3, etc?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:25 PM)

This particular scenario couldn't happen, Chris, as two teams from the same conference cannot be No. 1 ad No. 2 seeds in the same region.

Brian, Illinois

WHY is UCLA ranked so high in the polls and brackets?? Is it just because they've been good the last few years? They haven't really proven anything even with the win over Washington.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:28 PM)

I don't have a good answer for you, Brian. To me, UCLA is certainly a bit overrated (and will likely be overseeded by the Committee). My job is to tell you what I think they will do. Personally, I'd drop the Bruins a line or two.

Justin (NY, NY)

Everyone debates whether the Big East or ACC is the best conference. But in today's projections, you have 8 of 11 Big Ten teams in the tournament. Why do you think the Big 10 is not at least in the discussion?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:29 PM)

Couldn't have been that 38-33 game between Penn State and Illinois, right?

Jim (Parkersburg, WV)

If WVU finishes 8-10 or 9-9 in the Big East are they a lock? Especially with wins over Ohio State, Georgetown and Nova, all by double figures?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:30 PM)

I wouldn't call any sub-.500 conference team a lock. Having said that, WVU is going to make the field without too much difficulty.

Ben (PA)

Joe - Hopefully your wife got that squirrel out of your house ha. What do you think of Penn State this year? NCAA tournament or NIT?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:31 PM)

Actually, my daughter came up big and got the thing to scoot out a window. As for the Nits, I have them in today's field among the "Last Four" in. They are a No. 12 seed on the S-Curve and a No. 11 seed in the bracket.

B (NY)

Siena College worthly of an at large bid?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:32 PM)

I would say "yes" today (as a No. 11 seed).

Mike: Conway, South Carolina

Joe, If Clemson goes 4-1 in their last 5 and makes the ACC final, do they have a chance at a 2 seed and a weekend in Greensboro

Joe Lunardi

  (4:33 PM)

Something like this also depends on how the competition for that bracket position -- e.g., other potential No. 2 seeds -- are performing. Right now I have Clemson as the highest No. 3 seed, so they don't need much.

John (Dallas)

Hey Joe, using your own logic UCLA is 9th in ASM (Adjusted Scoring Margin) in the country. But you'd drop them lower then a 5 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:34 PM)

But the Bruins are far weaker (than Memphis, which started this train of thought) in other categories.

Scotty (CHI)

JOE- where do you get your RPI stats? KenPom? CollegeRPI?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:36 PM)

We produce our own (InsideRPI) on a daily basis. I don't believe Ken Pomeroy compiles an RPI any more.

Jeff (Nashville)

What is wrong with my Xavier Musketeers? It looks like they are playing with no heart.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:36 PM)

It might be more accurate to say they are getting sub-par point guard play.

Ben (Houston)

Joe, is Bracketology at the "if the season ended today" point, or is this still an informed prediction? Do you really think the Big 10 will get 8 in March? Thanks!

Joe Lunardi

  (4:37 PM)

The former, Ben. A month from now, I'd be shocked if the Big Ten has eight teams in the NCAA field.

Matt (Tucson)

What is the Wildcats ceiling, seed wise, if they win out and do well in the Pac 10 Tourney

Joe Lunardi

  (4:38 PM)

Let's win a serious road game before we go nuts over Arizona. Oregon and Oregon State don't count.

Chuck: (Orlando, FL)

Joe - could you score 33 points against Penn ST?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:38 PM)

Depends on the sport.

Bob (Ft. Wayne)

How is Siena worthy of an at large bid when their best win is only over RPI #69 Niagara? They've beaten no one of any real importance this year.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:39 PM)

For this to be a valid point, Bob, you'd have to make a compelling case for 34 teams better than Siena at this moment.

Steve (NJ)

With Syracuse most likey getting 4 wins in their last 5 games and having the Big East tournament to earn wins as well, could you see them moving up to a 4 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:40 PM)

Very possible given the at-large wins over Memphis, Kansas and Florida.

Jason (Iowa)

Joe, how do you see the MVC tournament shaking out? Looks to me like there are about 6 teams that could win this thing. Who do you like and why?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:40 PM)

I liked Creighton in November and still think the Blue Jays are the best team in the league.

Randy (St. Paul)

Hey Joe, after last nights loss at Michigan, I'm getting worried about the Gophers. Will finishing at 9-9 in the conference still get them in?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:42 PM)

I've been saying for a week or two that Minnesota was in danger of playing its way out of the NCAA field. Our tournament odds program gives Minny a 55 percent chance to make the field, but I would bet the under on that.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:42 PM)

Three more quickies, then I'm off to TV.

Jeremy (Gainesville)

Hey Joe, what do you think the Hokies need to do to lock in a spot for March?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:43 PM)

Stop losing to Virginia.

Cody (Pittsburgh)

Who gets Uconns #1 seed if they stumble?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:43 PM)

It might still be UConn (as No. 4 overall instead of No. 1).

Rallye (ANN ARBOR)

What does your tournament odds program say about Michigan?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:44 PM)

A 40 percent chance for the Wolverines, and I would take the over.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:44 PM)

So long, everyone. Have a great Bracket Buster weekend!