ESPN

Brendan Roberts

  (3:00 PM)

Good afternoon, everyone! Looks like a full docket of questions already, so let's go to 'em.

Brian (Atlanta)

I need commish help! We determined our draft order a couple of weeks ago. Now we are adding an additional player. Some people want to re-draw the entire draft order. And others just want to draw the spot for the new player (and move everyone below him down a notch). What is fair? I don't want to disregard our previous draft order (some people have already done some prep work assuming they know their draft position). But I want to be fair to everyone. Thoughts?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:01 PM)

Nah, you can't redraw your draft order. That was considered the real deal, and it still should be. I think you either do your suggestion -- or just put him at the end. If it's a snake draft, that wouldn't kill him. A lot of leagues do that anyway, and as a late add, he probably wouldn't complain. I'd suggest that, actually.

steve(Pittsburgh)

Does Andy Laroche have any fantasy value? What numbers do you predict for him?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:03 PM)

Does he have value? Yes and no. I would say he does in a deep league because he is slotted to get plenty of PT to start the season. Pedro Alvarez is on his way, and the team really wants to see what LaRoche can do before Pedro arrives. Don't mind his minor spring injury; he'll be ready. All that said, I have my doubts as to whether he can actually hit in the majors. I see a low average with the occasional homer from home, so even with a lot of PT, by no means will he save your team.

Peter Walden (Baltimore, MD)

Mr. Roberts - In your opinion, who is the better long-term keeper option: Liriano, Price, Volquez? Thanks for the advice.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:04 PM)

Long-term? As good as Liriano is, I like Price even more. For this season? Liriano.

Patrick (ar) [via mobile]

What kind of season should I expect from Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, and Grady Sizemore? Thanks!!!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:05 PM)

Boy, some big players there, which makes this answer fairly easy. I say you get about the same as last season for Howard and Sizemore (as in, I think neither picks up their averages), but I think M-Cab picks up where he left off in second half of 2008 and has a huge year, like top-5 huge. Great first-round pick there!

Mark Mags (L'Anse, MI)

Bill James has Kouzmanoff going 24-85-.285. Do you see that and his he a better late pick than Encarnacion?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:07 PM)

Say what? Ya know, I could maybe see the 24 and 85, but just not feelin' the .285 part. He just seems prone to big slumps and tends to roll over on offspeed pitches too much. I'm thinking more like .272-20-75. Considering I'd say something more like .270-25-80 for the emerging Encarn, then I guess I like Edwin more.

Billy (NYC)

Keepers are due for me this weekend, Im hesitant in keeping Manny without a home, how concerned should I be?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:09 PM)

He'll play somewhere, likely in LA once the soap opera is settled. Both sides know Manny didn't highly regard spring work, and probably doesn't need much work anyway. Because he's not there now doesn't mean much. Keep him if you normally would.

John ( New York )

What are your thoughts on Nelson Cruz? I have him in a auction league and can keep him for $3? Your thoughts and what kind of numbers you think he will put up?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:11 PM)

He's one of my "hot-button" guys. As in, I think he's a bust. Strikes out way too much, has a decent sample size of failed at-bats. He just came out of the woodwork last season, doing much of his hitting in a favorable park in Triple-A. So I'm not buyin' him at even a reasonable amount because I think all he'll do is hit the occasional homer with a low average (like Sosa in his recent Texas season). That said, $3 is definitely cheap enough to be in the "What the heck?" range. You'd rather have an upside guy than a boring guy there, so why not?

Mike (Charlottesville)

Talk to me about Carlos Quentin! Everyone seems to be down on him, but I'm seeing a .280-35-110 season. What do you think?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:14 PM)

Yeah, he was so good last season, and really no alarming splits either. Same with Ludwick. But in the offseason, you tend to look more at the bigger picture, and the bigger picture was that Quentin hadn't even had that great a minor league seasons before heading to CHW. This was completely out of the blue, and it takes fantasy owners two years to be convinced. I'm in that group. I see something more like a .275-25-90 season. Good, but not 2008 good.

Danny (Monmouth)

Who will be the odd man out of the Minnesota OF situation? What is the fascination with Cuddyer seems like Young and Span have more talent.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:16 PM)

It sounds to me that Delmon, Span, Kubel and Cuddyer will all share three spots (DH, LF, RF), meaning they should be good for plenty of at-bats, collectively. I don't know that there's a fascination with Cuddyer, it's just that Span profiles more like center fielder Carlos Gomez. Really, no one guy stands out in that outfield, which is a little bothersome. Not sure I answered your question definitively, but I really can't.

steve (ny)

I need alot of help. Im in a keeper league. You keep the player on where he was drafted last year. I can keep 2 of the following in a 5x5 league. who do i keep Halladay (round 7), Scherzer (round 28), Volquez round (29). Thanks

Brendan Roberts

  (3:17 PM)

OK, Steve, I hear ya. Enough of the posts. I normally don't answer the "help-only-my-team" questions ... but Volquez and Halladay should give you a good base.

Derek (DC)

Who is the better first round pick in a deep mixed league, Lance Berkman or Carlos Lee?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:18 PM)

Oh, very close, but I happen to like Berkman more because of the steals. He had 18 last season, and says he wants to run just as much this season.

John (Minny)

Assuming he's healthy, what % of the starts do you think Crede gets at 3b or will Buscher steal some? What do you project his numbers to be?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:21 PM)

Ha, I was just trying to figure this out today cause I have Buscher for a good price in an AL league. And for what it's worth, I've elected to drop Buscher. It sounds like Crede will get a good 75 percent of the starts (or more) to begin the season, which pretty much renders Buscher worthless. But watch that Crede. Two back surgeries in as many seasons, and now he'll play his home games on turf (albeit better turf than in years past). Crede's numbers? Maybe .260-18-70. That's it.

Joe (St. Louis)

Who is better for the long term? Rios, Crede, or Huff? How bout just this year? Thanks.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:22 PM)

Definitely Rios -- in both cases. (Assuming that Alex, and not Armando ... ha, ha).

Bob (Upstate, NY)

Any word on how BJ Upton is recovering?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:26 PM)

Yes, that shoulder surgery apparently was worse than I expected it'd be. Even though he's doing light baseball work, they're now saying he might not be ready for opening day. Honestly, I could see them starting the season with Upton on the DL if he doesn't progress quickly. The Rays have some cold-weather games (at Boston, at Balt.) to start the season, and I think they'll play it safe with him. Plus, they have some other outfield options to sort out, and a week gives them time to fill out their bench spots. That said, like I'd say with any spring-injured player, so what if he misses a week? There are 25 more to go ... so I still like him.

Steiny (NYC)

Joey Votto ended the season on a high note. Do you think he can pick up from where he left of this season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:26 PM)

I'll just say yes, and leave it at that. OK, no I won't. .290 average, 35 (yes, 35) homers, 100-plus RBIs. I'm callin' it!

Bryan Deerfield Beach, FL

What do you think about Alex Gordon in '09? Over/Under: .270avg 25hrs 70rbis 15sbs?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:28 PM)

Don't hate me for this, but I just don't see Gordon having that big season until I see progress in him against lefty pitchers. He has been bad against them, and sometimes a weakness like that trumps developing talent. If I had seen progress last year, then maybe. But I haven't. He seems to struggle on the road and against lefties, and I see only mild improvement there. I think the .270 and 70 part is doable, but I don't see the 25 homers or even 15 steals.

Jim (Chicago)

Do you see Lilly winning 15-17 games again? He has been a very quiet late round pick for me the past two years. Yes I am bias...sometimes.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:31 PM)

You have a right to be! Honestly, every time I see Lilly pitch, I don't get why teams don't clobber him. Just seems very pedestrian to me, but alas, he did have a great 2008. And did you realize he went 7-0 combined against STL, HOU and PIT? Considering he's on a similar team, same division ... sure, 15 wins is very possible, albeit with a slightly higher whip this season.

kyle (Athens, GA)

EK has Mark Lowe closing in Seattle. Your thoughts? What makes him a better option that Tyler Walker?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:33 PM)

Lowe had a shot last season, but looking at his numbers, I'm not sure he deserves one this season. Dude had a 1.76 WHIP. ... Just about everyone has been mentioned as a possibility there -- Lowe, Bautista, Tyler Walker, but the guy I see being the guy right now is Roy Corcoran. That said, maybe they'll bring in a veteran to hold down the spot till someone else emerges. Right now, you don't want any of those guys.

Dom (NY)

Would you hesitate to keep 2 stud outfielders in a league that only starts 3 over a stud 1B?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:34 PM)

Obviously depends who the players are, but I have no problems with that. 1B as deep this year as any other year.

Kasey Chicago IL

I have Carlos Marmol do you think he will be the closer, or should I trade for a different closer.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:35 PM)

I honestly think it'll be Marmol. I know about the Kevin Gregg talk that Piniella himself seems to be starting, but when it comes down to it, Marmol is the superior pitcher, and they want him in the clutch.

BK Boston, MA

Hunter Pence... Over/Under: .290avg 28hrs 95rbis 10sbs?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:37 PM)

Originally I said "no way," but then I looked at his '08 numbers again. Why do I (and seemingly everyone else) continue to underrate this guy!? Probably because I don't like that he has Jeff Francoeur's patience at the plate, and Eric Byrnes' recklessness in the field. But it has worked for him. I think that average is way too high (insert Frenchy line here), and the RBIs is a bit too high on that team, but you're mighty close.

Jim (Albany NY)

Thoughts on Cameron Maybin? i have to decide between him and Heath Bell. .260 .430 90 runs 60 rbis and 30 steals attainable? thanks

Brendan Roberts

  (3:39 PM)

The averages seem about right, but 90 runs and 30 steals seem slightly high to me. And even those numbers aren't what Bell has the chance to do in San Diego (as a closer on a team that has a lot of close, low-scoring games). If this is a 5x5 league, I'd take Bell.

Scott (Plainfield IL)

Does Morrow or Kershaw break out this yr? Which one has a bette chance?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:40 PM)

I think Morrow has the better chance, but I'd have to say yes, both have a breakout of sorts this season. Morrow seems to be statistically ready for that (meaning he broke out last season over a short span), but I like Kershaw to strike out 200 batters a season sometime soon (probably 2010).

ari(deal)

Why are ESPN analyst down on Morneau? He's young and just had eye surgery so he should be seeing the ball well? Is it just because he is so consistent and unexciting, cause I have him better than Carlos Lee and Prince Fielder.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:43 PM)

Good question; I've noticed this, too, although I wouldn't say ESPN is any different than other places on him. In general, though, I'd say he's undervalued. It's because he dropped to 23 homers and won't steal bases (even a single base), and because the Twins don't have a ton in their lineup surrounding him. But I still love him. First of all, the dude still gets his RBIs because he's a big man who makes good contact and hits for a good average. And secondly, I think it was inexplicable that he fell by 8 homers but jumped up 16 (!) doubles last season. He hit 47 of them. More of these get out this year, eye surgery or not, and he returns to upper-tier status in fantasy owners' eyes.

Dave

Hey Brendo: who got the better end of this AL Only deal: Roberts ($18) and Span (5) for Holliday (38)? thanks!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:44 PM)

Definitely the first guy ... of course, that was probably you!

Zach (PA)

What can we expect out of John Smoltz this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:45 PM)

I've heard great things about his rehab, but I still don't see him returning till June, and even then, the Sox likely will put him in the bullpen for at least a month until he rounds into shape. They can't afford to rush him back to the rotation. So whereas I still think he has something left, I'm really not targeting him in any drafts.

Lyle (orlando)

Chipper Jones: expect the same - ruthless streaks of production with occasional DL stints?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:47 PM)

Yes, or worse. I've given up on thinking he'll eventually go on a decline as a hitter. The guy can hit .350 in his sleep. But he's had a ton of injuries, especially to his legs, and the more he plays, especially in consecutive games, the more likely that something will bother him. That's the reality: No way the guy can play in even 140 games in a season anymore.

John (NY)

Whose 2008 was more of an anomaly: Chris Davis or Ryan Ludwick?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:49 PM)

I'd probably have to say neither, but since Ludwick put up the much better numbers, I guess I'd answer him. Not predicting 37 homers from him again. But I do see him hitting, oh, 28-plus, just as I see Davis at least approaching that number, too.

Bryan Boca Raton, FL.

Johnny Cueto: Over/Under 12 wins 4.12 era 1.34 whip 190 K's?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:51 PM)

Ah yes, Cueto. Hmm, you know what, those numbers higher than most projectors have him, but I'm on board with 'em. I think he takes a nice step up this year. Only thing that maybe seems too high to me is 190 K's. I'm thinking more like 180-185. But folks, those are pretty good numbers; don't forget how good Cueto can be.

John (Detroit)

Magglio Ordonez.....is this guy pretty much a glorified singles hitter at this point?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:52 PM)

Nah, a glorified doubles hitter. Ha, ha! Hey, the guy hit 21 homers last season, and I see another 20 from him this season. And he could finish in the top 10 in the league in hitting. And I see his runs coming up a bit, too. Just because of his decline in homers, people are moving him down their rankings. They shouldn't.

Steve - LA.

What is the ceiling for Stephan Drew? Will he take another step forward this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:54 PM)

Yes he will, and I think his ceiling is pretty high. Like first-two-round status high (not that you should take him there this season). .290 average, maybe 24-25 homers, 85 RBIs, 85 runs, 5 steals ... man, I'd love to have that from my shortstop.

cody (kentucky)

Does Jeff Clement step up this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:55 PM)

Griffey Jr's signing hinders Clement's PT, but I still see him getting enough to at least warrant owning in a 12-team league with a bench. I think the guy could turn into a homer machine with a decent average at some point this season.

Mike (New York)

Does Randy Johnson have anythign left in the tank? How can you explain the Giants offseason signings of Johnson and Renteria? Shouldn't they commit to their youth for a couple years and build a contender around their young pitching?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:57 PM)

The Giants have a nice fan base there, and good attendance. I think they were just trying to bring in some vets to keep the fans there and show they were doing something. After playing a bunch of no-names (to the average fan) in '08, they needed to do something. They're kinda like the Cubs of the 80s and 90s; first focus is keeping their loyal fans loyal. I might be wrong about that, of course. Anyway, I think Unit still has plenty left, and ya know what, I'm targeting him in all my drafts.

Ryan (LA)

Gagne....Take him or leave him?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:57 PM)

Leave him.

Brendan-Boston

190 K's too high for Cueto but 185 seems just right? Absolutely no way AROD hits 42 HR but 41 seems about right.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:58 PM)

This is a game of precision.

Frank (Jersey City, NJ)

who u like best: berkman/soriano/beltran?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:59 PM)

Soriano. Plus, this gives me the chance to refer to the blog note Jerry Crasnick sent in today. Basically, Lou Piniella has decided to keep Soriano in the leadoff spot because he wants him to steal 30-plus bases. Soriano reportedly has come to camp in great shape, and Piniella wants him to show off his speed more. Very interesting to us, no? One more Q.

Ryan (LA)

What about Hoffman? Pitchers park to Miller. Take him or Leave Him?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:01 PM)

A much better question ... I think you don't leave him, for sure. But you consider him a No. 1 closer either. I look him at the end of No. 2 closer draft area.

Brendan Roberts

  (4:01 PM)

Another quick hour, folks! More great questions. I'll be back next week -- same time, same place. As TMR would say, "Peace out!"