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Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...

Michael (Pittsburgh, PA)

How much do you like Scott Baker?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

A lot; he's in my top 25 starters, after all. The only reason I'd hesitate to call Baker a potential top-10 candidate -- and I know that'd be a bold statement -- is that he's a fly-ball pitcher. That he'll give up the occasional home run probably keeps him beneath that, which is why he's in my 20-25 range, but that's still a pretty darned generous rank, I'd think.

Chris (Hartford, CT)

B.Anderson is slotted to start in LF for CWS. The trouble is, I don't think he's that good. I have him cheep ($1) in an AL only league. Worth keeping?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

He is? News to me. That's Carlos Quentin's spot, last I checked. Jerry Owens started in center and leadoff the other day. Ugh, Ozzie never learns. I see Brian Anderson a clear backup, so no, I wouldn't go wild locking up a reserve even for $1.

Al (Seattle)

Hey Tristan, what can owners expect out of Paul Maholm this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

I'd probably take his 2007 and 2008 numbers, add twice 2008 to the formula, and be pretty happy with it. In other words, matchups type with NL-only potential, and maybe there's a hot streak or two where mixed-league owners can have him in for a month at a time. I'd hesitate to go higher because the team won't help him get many wins, but I would advise that you don't forget about Mr. Maholm. It's not unthinkable he's as good as his 2008 numbers.

Wil (Newark, NJ)

Following up on your comment re Baker, I had Slowey rated higher. Do you agree?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Yes, but we're talking about a mere spot or two. I really classify them as very similar fantasy values.

Civil Ian, Toronto

Hi Tristan. In a classic NL roto-format auction with 13 teams and up to 15 keepers (this is a twenty yr-old league, so you can imagine) does it make sense to create positional shortages by buying 2 starters at C, 2B and SS?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Not if you're reaching to do it and not if it means you'll be spending precious resources to stick these guys on your bench instead of into starting lineup spots. I don't advise prevention strategies in leagues that deep. There are people out there -- myself included -- who don't negotiate easily with the guy "holding them over a barrel."

Matt (Denver)

You get one of these pitchers, which one? Slowey, Kershaw, Young, Morrow, Pelfrey

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

For 2009? Kevin Slowey. For the long haul? Clayton Kershaw, and I don't really see that being much of a race, either. It'd have to be a deep, long-term keeper league for me to go Kershaw here, too, but then I play to win now.

John Locke (Island)

Name game: Webb or Peavy? Does Peavy pitching in the WBC hurt his value?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:12 AM)

Lost is beginning to annoy me, frankly. It's one thing to wonder what's next, it's another to think "what the heck is the plan here?" More fun to wonder than to be perplexed. Anyway, I digress. It's Brandon Webb for me. I see more safety in him, even if Jake Peavy's ceiling is a slight bit higher. For one thing, the teams aren't equal. Wins should be more plentiful for Webb. And with Peavy, yes, that's a concern, more from the aspect that I'm beginning to wonder how long before an injury might be coming. I just see a little risk there, whereas I don't with Webb.

Dan, NY

the real interesting question in Minnesota is the outfield. What do you predict will happen out there? Or do you not have a clue?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

I don't like going with "I don't have a clue," because that really doesn't help you any. Not that I have an insider's angle on the Twins' outfield, but I can speculate, and that's important to our game. Seems to me that Denard Span and Carlos Gomez are pretty certain to play regularly to begin the year, meaning Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer are going to have to fight to establish themselves. I have a feeling Span isn't going to hold up as an everyday player, though. I bet Gomez plays almost every day, Young gets the next-most at-bats, then Span, then Cuddyer. And Jason Kubel is the everyday DH. He might be my favorite value of the bunch!

Response to Dan in NY

Whats more interesting is what is going to happen in the NYY outfield...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

Is it? Because I just had a debate with a guy who thinks Brett Gardner is a big-time sleeper. I don't really agree, I still see so much Jason Tyner in him. That said, Gardner has AL-only value because of the steals, and I do see him as the favorite to start in center, but I'm just not wild about him. I still divvy up the center-field at-bats in percentages: Gardner 50, Melky 35, Swisher/Damon 15. Damon gets almost all the time in left that Swisher doesn't. Swisher slots in all three outfield spots and first base but seems most hurt in playing time to me. And Hideki Matsui is a DH, and a DH only.

Nathan (Fayetteville, AR)

Is Pablo Sandoval going to be a viable fantasy option at third base THIS year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

Viable, certainly, but I keep looking at his plate-discipline numbers and then his earlier minor league numbers and keep taking some small steps backward. I like that the Giants are committing to him seemingly regularly, not signing Joe Crede for instance, but I don't see Sandoval being a huge value for fantasy except for those who can slot him at catcher. That'd be a huge boon.

BC (Chicago, IL)

Rasmus or Iannetta for my final, 10 team, NL-only league keeper?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Without more specific details it's impossible to give you a fair answer, because the deeper the league and the less restrictions on keeping players for the long haul, the more valuable Colby Rasmus becomes. But for the record, I see Rasmus getting maybe a half-season, I'm not wild about him at all (batting average appears a problem), and if I picked on 2009 value alone, it's Chris Iannetta for me. Love him as a sleeper pick.

Mike (Cincy)

Better keeper - J Upton or Wieters?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

Again, without more details, impossible to be entirely fair here. Justin Upton if it's 2009, unless it's a very lax keeper system, and the reason I'd go Matt Wieters in those is that there is absolutely no question in my mind that kid's gonna hit. I just don't see him being up before June 1, is all. Wieters will be tougher to replace, to note, if long-term value is more important here.

Zach (PA)

Please rank the underwhelming Pirates trio, Snell, Maholm, and Gorzelanny and give your reasoning for the rankings.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

"Underwhelming"? I don't know, I'd say Paul Maholm "whelmed" me in 2008. (If that counts as a word.) He'd be No. 1 for me, I just see him the most complete package. Then I'd go Ian Snell's "stuff" at No. 2. A higher ceiling of the two problem kids. And Tom Gorzelanny, and the reason he's last is that command types need to be on point all the time, and going by 2008, he was as far from it as could possibly be.

Josh (ATL)

Follow up to the NYY OF question: Where does Nady fit in?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Regular right fielder, sorry about that.

Mike (Tampa, FL)

What is with all of these NL only AL only leagues. Why not have more talent to make it more fun? 1/2 of baseball isn't available!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

I'm not trying to knock mixed leagues in any way by saying this, but AL- and NL-only leagues are more challenging. You have to really know your stuff to compete in those. But then I also strongly endorse deeper mixed leagues, those are a heck of a lot of fun, too. I might have a 20-team mixed auction this year, and can't wait!

Gregg (Jefferson City, MO)

Name your two best sleeper closers. I love waiting on closers and rubbing it in the faces of all those who picked closers in round 5 and 6.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

I am really warming to Chad Qualls, a mid-range value, and I think Frank Francisco very much has closer stuff, of the deep, deep types.

Gregg (Boston)

Manny, Manny, Manny. Has there ever been a bigger drama queen? Does he sign soon? Do we draft him still? How much will this missed time hurt him? Torre believes it won't at all.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

It's human nature though, Gregg, is it not? Most people would wait and sniff out the best financial offer they could. I can't really fault that with Manny. Just the way it is, and the economy has hurt this free-agent class, so it makes sense he had to wait things out. As for missed time, I honestly see it being no issue unless it starts sneaking past, say, March 15. A guy like Manny needs like two weeks to get into game shape, I'd think. Spring training is too long for the vets!

Jake (Chicago)

Tristan, a great way to play is to have the same number of MLB teams in a player pool as you have fantasy teams. Maybe throw 1-2 extra MLB teams in.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

I could not argue with that, Jake, and appreciate the suggestion. I have a sim league with 12 teams, and we draw our player pool from 14 MLB teams, so obviously I think your advice seems about right.

Joel (Boston, MA)

I desperately need help deciding my last keeper: need to pick by noon!! Phillips or Quentin in a 9 team keeper league that uses OPS?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

I'd probably keep Brandon Phillips, and it's more a result of his position than anything.

Chris (Fredericksburg, VA)

Lackey or Liriano (keeper league)?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

I have Francisco Liriano ranked higher in either yearly or redraft. Those who have read my columns over the past year might remember my comments: Don't buy early in 2008, but come 2009, wow, look out!

Thomas (Las Vegas)

You mentioned you were in a 20 team league. Who would be your first 5 draft picks in a 20 team league. How does a league that deep impact your selections? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

No, not at all. It'd be the same five: Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Jose Reyes. What changes in 20-team is that you can't totally blow off closers until very late, and you can't ignore the impact of position scarcity. Top catchers, second basemen and shortstops will go a lot higher than in a 10- or 12-team mixed. Trust me, if you're not prepared for that, you will be floored when you see it happen and get left behind at those spots.

Gary ( LA)

I have a clear shot at drafting Pedrioa in the 4th round of a 12 team league. Is that a no-brainer pick? I'm having trouble gauging his proper value with all the mixed opinions?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

Certainly, and I'm not even the biggest Dustin Pedroia fan. Fourth round seems more than adequate. I bet I'd be thinking about him by somewhere in the third, in fact. And again, I'm not even that huge a fan, but he's one of the safer bets in terms of batting average and runs scored, and he's a-OK in the other categories too.

Bryan Hull, MA

Do you think Alex Gordon makes a leap forward in 2009? Something like: .270 Avg 20 Hrs 80 Rbis 15 Sbs?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

You just about nailed my projection for him, so that means yes.

Brad (Seattle)

tristan, can you explain to me why leagues require 2 catchers? I never understood that and think it is the worst rule in fantasy baseball.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

OK, Brad, well, do the math. If you're in a 10-team league and you use one catcher, that means only 10 catchers from the 30 MLB teams at any time are active. The difference from, say, the No. 6 catcher to the No. 10 is really not great, so it greatly diminishes the value of the entire catcher pool. Not to mention that sleeper types like Taylor Teagarden and Jeff Clement are bench fodder at best. I think it gets tricky when you require more active catchers than there are teams in the player pool, but again, I like deeper leagues and the strategy of having to know something about every MLB starter.

Renee Walker (Washington DC)

Aside from Kim Bauer, am I the hottest female character in 24 history? Can Johnny Damon duplicate his 2008 stats - .303-17hr-71rbi-95r-29sb - in this, his contract, year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Poor Nadia. (First reaction.) By the way, great season thus far. Lovin' it. Anyway, as for Damon, I think you're being a tad optimistic, but to call up my projection for him, I've got .285-20-60-25-100. I just think you're being a little too generous for him in batting average and RBIs, really.

Ryan: (Baltimore,MD)

Name Game: Markakis or Kemp?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

"Kakes" -- man do I hate that nickname -- but then I'll always pick the guy with the better right-now hitting talent given the choice.

Brian (NYC)

Keep Three Tristan: Joba (1 Year) Price (2 years), E. Santana (2 years), Wainwright (2 years), Kemp (1 year), Tulowitzki (1 year), Pelfrey (2 years).

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

This one is extremely difficult, as four names pop off the page: Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Ervin Santana, Matt Kemp. You know, if you think you can win this year, Joba, Ervin and Kemp are your best bets. Period. But I would not fault at all the idea of tossing either Joba or Ervin back for Price, and that's really a question of how much risk/reward you can afford. Joba has the higher ceiling but much more risk.

Fernando (Pembroke Pines)

Hey THC, in your opinion is it wise to just grab the best player available at that point or start reaching for positions to fill? For example passing up on Brain Mc to draft Brain Roberts cause you need a 2nd.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Certainly, that makes sense. But as position scarcity goes, I'm not about to pass up Jason Bay to grab, say, Dan Uggla. There's a limit. The guys have to at least be in the ballpark in terms of numbers.

the dude

Hey Tristan:AL only trade question: Holliday ($38) for Roberts ($18) and Span ($5). Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

That's a high price for Matt Holliday, but to be fair, I think there's more value in him than what you're getting back. You'd be benefiting most in terms of steals and cap room, but I'd rather have the big hitting numbers, or the potential for them. It's really more of a gripe with the second part being Denard Span, who's OK but nothing exceptional.

Sean (NY)

Which is a better keeper pick? Kemp (7th rd pick) or Soria (10th rd pick). Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

Matt Kemp. Hitters first!

Mike, Ny, NY

Who should i keep? Votto and give up an 18th round pick or Chris Davis and give up a 22nd?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

All a matter of risk/reward again, as Chris Davis is your higher-ceiling, higher-risk option. In my rankings Davis is barely higher, but for the record, I do like both of these players very much.

Rick(Chicago)

Would appreciate your thoughts on Buchholz and Hughes for this year and beyond.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

I still believe in both pitchers, I think each one has a fine career ahead of him, but I have one worry regarding Phil Hughes and that's his health. On the bright side the Yankees aren't pressing him to contribute right away this year, and that might help him relax and develop more naturally than a year ago, when he had all that pressure. With Clay Buchholz, I just think his 2008 demonstrates how hard it is for a young pitcher to break into the big-league level. It happens. Not everyone succeeds immediately and keeps it up. I'd call both of these guys nice sleeper selections.

Steiny (NYC)

What do you expect from Alex Rodriguez this season?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

I initially wanted Alex Rodriguez as my No. 1 player overall because of the odd-year breakout thing, but I have regressed back to a more normal projection for him as a result of this steroids thing, with .300-40-110-15-115 numbers. That's still an exceptional player, but it's not a lock No. 1 pick, either. He's No. 3 for me now.

BK Ft. Lauderdale, FL

Hey Tristan, what do you think about Jhonny Peralta? Now that he?s 27, do you think he finally puts it all together this year? Something like: .285 Avg 30 Hrs 100 Rbis 100 runs?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

I kind of believe that Peralta is one of those players with whom what you see is what you get. That said, I'd say at this age, he's pretty likely to match his 2008, and those weren't bad numbers at all. I had a discussion with a buddy this morning about Peralta and the lack of depth in the AL-only pool, and with that in mind, in those formats I probably would bump him up a little bit on my draft sheet.

Chet (LA)

Vernon Wells or Lastings Milledge?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

Wells, but that's assuming his hammy doesn't send him to the DL on Opening Day. If there's any serious risk of that -- and we'll know more about him in the next week or two I'm sure -- then I'd say the values are close enough I'd take Milledge's upside.

jeff(chicago, il)

saw in the espn mock draft that you took Matt Kemp over Matt Holliday, do you mind a little explanation behind that? I am in a similar spot on deciding who I want to keep.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

You know what, Jeff? Very good question, very fair to ask, especially since the truth is that I actually have Matt Holliday ranked higher on my draft sheet. It was entirely strategic. I knew only three owners drafted between my picks, and having spoken with them in the weeks leading up to it, I had gathered none of them were going to go wild for Holliday ... thereby allowing him to sneak by those six picks before I went again. With Matt Kemp, by comparison, I had a hunch he wasn't going to last as long. That's really all it was.

Noah (L.A.)

You have Pujols over HanRam. HanRam plays SS which is very thin, while Pujols plays perhaps the deepest position. Why not HanRam over Prince Albert?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

I can't tell you you're wrong to go in that order. To me it's those two and Alex Rodriguez in the first tier, and I won't haggle with anyone over how he/she arranges them. For me, it's kind of gut instinct that orders them as I have.

David (Frisco, Texas)

In a lot of my mock drafts, I've noticed that the top three catchers are going somewhere between the 3rd to 5th round. I've used several different strategies in these mock drafts to see how they play out. I've come to the conclusion that regardless of where you draft your catcher, you're going to have to overpay to get any sort of production. Otherwise, you end up with Teagarden-type players. Why not overpay for someone you can count on? I'm not much into positional scarcity as a guiding principle but it sure does seem like an issue this year with the catcher position. Have you noticed this as well? I've read the positional scarcity article on ESPN and think it is good in theory, but it's not applying to the real world. Everyone is gone by the time their value matches up with their draft pick. What is your recommendation or strategy specifically for drafting catchers in a 12 team league? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

David, I don't follow the crowd. I'm not the guy to talk to about catchers if you want someone who will endorse overpaying for them. Just how I play. The bottom line is that an everyday player at any other position plays 150-plus games. A catcher, by comparison, generally is going to play around 125-plus, if he's good enough. It's going to be a difference of sometimes 25 games between them and hitters anywhere else on the diamond. So that's why I won't buy into the whole position-scarcity thing at catcher, really. It's a matter of quantity of numbers. Better to wait and get a sleeper catcher late and use your earlier picks to load up with a monster offense everywhere else.

Dan (St. Louis)

I have a keeper dilemma...I am already keeping Braun and Kinsler...What 3 would you choose out of Crawford, Youklis, McClouth, McCann, Alexei Ramirez, and Votto??...My brain is spinning trying to decide...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

I think Brian McCann and Alexei Ramirez are musts here, because of the position scarcity thing. Ramirez should qualify at shortstop fairly early in the year. For the third, I'd go Nate McLouth.

Ryan: (Baltimore,MD)

just a follow up; why McLouth over Crawford?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Just not a big Carl Crawford fan. A lot of his health issues the past few years were leg-related, and that's an issue for a guy who generates much of his fantasy value with stolen bases.

Goose (Chicago)

Time to already start grabbing pitchers fom the Cleveland bullpen? Jim Hendry knew what he wasdoing.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Hey Goose! Yeah, though from what I understand Kerry Wood's injuries aren't that serious right now. Still, I'd have always advised handcuffing Wood in fantasy leagues. One of the biggest health risks in the game. Just a chance I won't take to go without a handcuff. Looks like Jensen Lewis is probably the smartest one right now, but I do think Rafael Perez has the best arm in that pen after Wood.

David (Frisco, Texas)

I agree with you on the catcher issue and usually end being the last person to pick up a catcher. That way, I save about three rounds of value on the position since everyone else has already drafted one. Accordingly, would you name your sleepers? Who is this year's Soto?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

I don't see a Geovany Soto, David. Sorry to break that to you. Matt Wieters is the closest thing to it, going by the literal definition. But to go over some sleepers I see being great late: Chris Iannetta, Taylor Teagarden, Jeff Clement and ... gasp ... Yadier Molina! Yes, I seriously do like Molina as a late, late value.

Dave (DC)

I think the better question is why McClouth over Votto?!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

First base is ridiculously deep, and that's all that is.

Bob (Boston)

TC,Where doo V Mart and Sandoval rank as catchers considering they will play over 125 games? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

Will they? Really? You certain of that? I'm not. Well, not with Victor Martinez, though he sure has the potential to do it. He's sixth for me at catcher. If Sandoval qualifies, he'd likely be around 10th. In Mike Napoli territory. Yes, they'd both be starting for me in a mixed league.

Chris (LA,CA)

First base is only deep in the NL!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

Nate McLouth and Joey Votto play in the NL. And by the way, to those who knock the AL: Miggy, Teix, Morneau, Youk and Chris Davis? Uh, that's half my top 10!

Brian (Michigan)

In mock drafts I'm getting Mike Napoli in the 15th round or later in 10 team mixed leagues. I'll take that.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

Bingo. And he might DH a lot!

Feds [via mobile]

Any definitive answer if Morrow will start or close? Projections either way? Thanks Tristan

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:06 PM)

I am told that he is going to start. At least that's the story as of Feb. 26. I would be drafting accordingly. Think high WHIP, maybe high-1.30s, ERA in the mid-threes, good K's, but I also wouldn't draft assuming more than 150 innings. And wins will be a problem.

John Locke (Lost)

Hey Tristan, please dont be upset at me. Dont be like Jack. Any way if in my others league if M-Cab is 3b eligible does he leap frog R. Braun and G. Sizemore? BTW i am special you know

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:07 PM)

I dunno, if I spent that long on a mysterious island and then had to go through what Jack did, I'd probably react the same. Beats me though, glad I didn't go through it. But yes, to your question, I'd put Miggy higher if he gets first-and-third eligibility. And that's another case of I won't haggle with those who's pick him higher besides.

Chris (LA,CA)

...and then I'm the one who gets Giambi

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:08 PM)

And I'll get Billy Butler, and for your competitive purposes I'd hope you pick someone to make up for the batting-average drain Giambi provides. But yes, Chris, it's sort of the point I've been making about first basemen for weeks.

dj (chi-town)

can you rank the following pitchers: Lee, Halliday, Peavy and Billingsly

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:09 PM)

Roy Halladay, Jake Peavy, Chad Billingsley (so tempted to put him two) and Cliff Lee. All top-20 arms.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:09 PM)

OK folks, time to wrap things up for the day -- totally forgot it was lunch time! Thanks for all of your questions, and sorry if I couldn't address yours today. Take care!