Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some free agency!
Shane (Los Angeles, CA)
I am SO glad TFS is here to answer this question. I cannot see why so many mock drafts have Stafford and Sanchez going so high; M. Kiper has them at 3 & 5, Scouts inc has them at 5 & 8 in terms of best player available. If these guys came out in the 2010 draft no way they would be rated this high. That being said, here is the meat of my question: For a team with a top-10 draft pick who is looking at the QB position as their top-need to fill, WHY wouldnt they consider trading their pick for Cassell? You are going to get a prospect who has considerably fewer questions than a rookie, and you will pay him about the same. Personally, I think these 2 QBs are late first rounders because neither one is ready to be THE franchise QB; they arent the second coming(s) of Flacco & Ryan.
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Great question. It may come down to that some teams might have questions as to if Cassel is the real deal or if he is a NE system player. Since he's pretty much proven he is starter level material, a trade like this would make a lot of sense. These type of things tend to happen closer to the draft so I wouldn't rule it out.
KC, we (as in depressed Bills fans)all know that the Bills dont like spending a lot in free agency. But doesnt it seem like they are positioning themselves for soemthing big with the release of Dockery and Royal?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
It sure does. What is funny to me is that they look to be priming for a big run for a FA class that isn't very strong at the top.
Mike (mpls, MN)
I've asked about TJack and Chilly before, but Rosenfels? Really? A career backup that is interception prone is the answer to only one question: "who was the last QB that Childress used to prove he rode McNabb's coattails?".
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I'm a bit perplexed on the Rosenfels as starter move but let's consider that Minnesota made the playoffs with Frerotte running the show most of 2008. I think they'll want to go with Jackson but since Rosenfels is used to being Earl Morrall, I think that is a prime reason they want him.
Broad Street Brian (Football season starts in under 8 hours!)
Who do you think will be the best, not the most expensive Free agent signing. Do you think Chris Canty will be the mid priced steal I think he'll be?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Got to love hot stove football time, right?! Canty might be good help but I'm thinking the biggest impacts will come at WR and CB.
Shane (Los Angeles, CA)
Ive seen rumors that Tony Gonzalez might be available for a second rounder. Would a move like this make sense for Arizona? How about Larry Johnson to the Cardinals?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Arizona has a long term view of things and probably doesn't feel the need to make moves that will only help for a year or two at best. Both of those changes would be short term and I just can't see them happening unless their front office has a change of heart.
We're old friends, how about a follow up...the Bills dont need great players, they need a couple good players at a couple key positions to be legit (i.e. OC, TE, DE).
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Hey, I think it would be great if the Bills stocked up on a number of quality free agents. There isn't a lot at the top of the FA pool this year but there is a good amount of quality depth and if they are aiming to tap into that, it's a good strategy on their part.
JAKE (Duluth, MN)
What's going on with Tampa? So they decide to clean house and get rid of a bunch of older stars but they decide to keep Barber? Did they not see him blow coverage every game last year? If you're going to get rid of Brooks, through Barber under the bus too! With all the moves happening, who are they targeting to fill in the gaps??
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
I couldn't agree with you more on Barber. He gave up double digit YPAs all year long and only looked like his old self on a couple of occasions. He also will be hard pressed to physically adapt to Bates' man heavy scheme. I haven't heard that they are targeting anyone in FA but I won't be surprised to see one of the young FA CBs in pewter next year.
KC, Not feeling the love over here! I have written this chat on and off since Nov/08 and you have not replied, what do you hold a grudge because I beat you in yur own fantasy league?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Not at all! I always aim to put up posts from the regulars and you are definitely one of those. Shoot me a Q and I'll post it and answer it.
KC, Gibril Wilson an upgrade over Bell? Or will they re-sign Bell and play Wilson at FS?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
My guess is that they will re-sign Bell and play Wilson as a run safety. Wilson isn't cut out to be a cover safety.
Chris Wright (Tampa)
What's your take on The Bucs? Are they going to make any moves in the free agency market or are they financially strapped as many of us think they are?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Since there is a good amount of quality depth, I could see TB making some good acquisitions without coming close to breaking their bank. They need some new players for Bates' scheme and I wouldn't be surprised to see them sign someone on that side of the ball.
What have you heard about the Eagles resigning Dawkins and Thomas?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
I'd be entirely shocked if they didn't find a way to keep Dawkins. They usually stray away from older players but a) he's still playing well and b) his skill set is very hard to replace. That isn't the case as much for Thomas so if they have to pick one (and their cap situation says they don't), they'll pick Dawkins.
Troy Madison, WI
Not cut out to be a cover safety? Miami's payin ghim 6 million a year
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
I don't mean that as a pejorative in Wilson's case. He's a heckuva run safety but he has had coverage issues in the past. As long as they keep him in the box, he's a good signing.
My dream off season. Philly signs Housh, trades their second for Gonzo, Pick the best OT and DE in the first(assumiung they grade out), and get a RB in the 3rd.
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
I'm not going to wake you from that dream because many of those could actually happen. If all of them did, it would mean the Eagles are once again at the front of the NFC title race.
Luke Bergen County NJ
What are the odds of Detroit getting Albert Haynesworth or any other big name free agents?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
It's not that the Lions don't spend money on players but there have been multiple situations this offseason where players have shown a reticence to going to Motown. Schwartz should be a very good HC to play for and Gunther Cunningham is well-liked by his players, so on that side of the ball they should be an attractive destination. They won't pay Albert the kind of dough he wants so that's why he isn't heading up there.
Kim Deal (CA)
Oakland fan here! I know...! Which metric do you see as most telling in respect to a QB's future sucess? How'd JaMarcus Russell do?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
One of the key metrics for QBs is bad decision percentage. JaMarcus did well in that category most of the season so I think he'll fare well in 2009.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
KC: Would the addition of Rosenfels mean Hakeem Nicks is on the top of Minnesota's draft board at #22?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
Maybe but where do you fit him in? Assuming Rice turns out to be a starting level WR (and I'm of that mindset) and given that they just paid big money to Berrian, that means you are looking at Nicks as a #3. Kind of high to take a WR at that level.
The Fins just inked Bell, assuming they play him at SS and Wilson at FS as I suspect they will, you don't like the move? Was Wilson a poor FS the year the Giants won the SB?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
I do like the move of Wilson at SS. Where I don't like him is at FS. Bell did OK metrically last year but he's 31 years old and isn't a long-term solution.
Bill (Pomona California)
KC - as a follow-up, I think the Jets are going first round WR with speed in the draft, as nothing in FA is really that exciting. Of course, maybe trade down and get picks too? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
I'm with you on the Jets/WR situation. They aren't in a one-year Super Bowl run scenario so paying out big for Housh doesn't make sense (or paying big in a trade for Boldin). There is enough depth at WR in the draft that they should be able to go that route and upgrade.
Matt (Tulsa, OK)
How good would the vikings be with kurt warner?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
The Vikes are just as good (if not better) than Arizona at all but a few positions, so I'd say Super Bowl contender.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Follow up on the Nicks question: So better to go after an OT with the 22nd pick then maybe pick up a guy like Deion Butler or Derrick Williams later as a slot receiver, right?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
It depends on who is there but with the depth at the OT position in the draft, they could end up with a real value pick at that spot.
not disagreeing with your assessment and not saying they are accurate but simply for the record, profootballtalk.com is reporting that bell will play SS and wilson will be the FS for the phins
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
I'm not saying that is what Miami will do but rather saying that is what my scouting and metric eyes say they should do. Wilson has never shown a skill set to play FS and I think they will be let down if they move him there.
Who do you think the colts will sign to replace Marvin Harrison?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
I don't think they'll go for a big name. In fact, they may just figure they have two good starting level wideouts and try to develop a #3 off of their roster or via the draft.
Do you see the Eagles aquiring Ronald Curry if Housh is too pricey?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Curry has put up some really good metric seasons in the past and his skill set seems to fit what Philly likes to do. I think he'd be a great pickup for Iggles.
I'm all for a team retaining its players, but not if it requires overpaying them. Vernon Carey got $12 million more than Stewart and Winston, who are better players. Crowder, Wilson, and Bell were also overpaid.
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Far be it for me to second guess Parcells (he's one of my favorite football guys of all-time), but some of these moves are making me scratch my head. Carey is so-so and Wilson isn't a FS. If those moves turn out, I'll be eating crow but I'm with you on wondering what they are up to down south.
Pete, North Dakota
Rumors have the Redskins throwing a ridiculous amount of money at Albert Haynesworth. Where do they think they are going to get that cap space? If they don't somehow pull off this miracle cap adjustment, what do you see the Skins doing in free agency?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Everything I'm hearing and reading says the Skins are going to find a way to sign Haynesworth. Barring a collapse or someone else coming in with an even bigger FA offer for AH, he's bound for DC and they will be pretty much done as far as big FA signings this offseason.
will the chiefs go after haynesworth they have cap room
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
I can't see that happening. They have way too many holes to fill to overpay at one position.
Barney (awesomeville, ny)
what do the metrics say about corey webster? is he worth the extension he got last season?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
Webster had a great 2008 (YPA in the 5-6 range pretty much all year) but what concerns me are his previous years. He's had some trouble staying on the field and had coverage issues so this contract is based on a one-year performance. It's rather a concern for what he'll do in 2009.
man you keep answering questions about the same people who are not going to do anything but get a lot of money and do nothing afterwards
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Hey, if you've got a question to ask, ask it! I'm not straying away from talking about other players, just answering the questions I'm asked.
Cosmo (Anytown, USA)
Eagles real offseason: Draft 2 OT's and a DT with their first 3 picks, inexplicably pick another QB in the later rounds, Cosmo gives himself papercuts between his toes. Why do I root for them?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Cosmo, you root for them because they keep getting you close to the promised land every year. Go ask a Cleveland fan what it is like to pull for a team that has only one playoff berth in the last decade before contemplating self mutilation!
Is Jason Brown worth being paid as the highest paid center and will he be joining the Dolphins spending spree?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Satele didn't grade out that badly in the Fins games I've broken down, so I'm not entirely sure why they want to move him out. Brown is a good center but he wants to be paid like a guard. He may get that kind of dough but I'm not thinking he'll give the bang for his buck if that happens.
Cry me a river, Cosmo. It must've been torture watching your team reach the conference championship.
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
See?! And please stay on the rooftop, Jim.
What are the metrics on Bryant McFadden, rumors around here have him possibly starting next to champ next fall.
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
4.8 YPA. Some of that came from the system but even if you added 1-1.5 yards for the system change, it still equals starting level CB.
I just wanted to say as a Dolphins fan I was excited about bringing back their top 3 free agents and adding a solid safety before free agency even starts but you have depressed me.
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
Brian, I was a Fins fan for over 25 years before starting this and still like to see them do well, so it pains me to pan their picks. I just don't see Wilson as a top FS and I have problems with Bell as a run safety. I do wonder if Miami would have signed Carey if they were certain that one of the top OTs in the draft would have fallen their way.
Dylan (New York)
Do you think it was the right move to let Coles go?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Yes and no. Coles is still a good WR but he just isn't worth what he used to be.
kc, i admire how you can just suddenly put your "fandom" aside. I've bled cardinal red for 17 or so years and i just cant imagine not somewhat pulling for them in the slightest. Truly incredible
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
I've got to say that was maybe the toughest part of making the transition to this job. Putting on the scouting hat means putting any semblance of being a fan out of your mind. It took me a few months before I could do it but now that I've been at it for 5+ years, it's rather second nature now.
Pete (New York)
KC, big Giants fan and I have started to see a common thread of getting cheap, no-profile free agents and bulking through the draft during the Reese era. Do you think they make a change and make a splash? Ala- Burress, McKenzie, Pierce?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
That may change in the future but this FA class is full of cheap, no-profile FAs. Expect more of the same.
Cosmo (Anytown, USA)
Put it this way - being an Eagles fan is like knowing that if you got a haircut and shaved, you could get the hot broad at work - but you decide to not get that haircut or shave for so unknown reason. Being a Browns fan is knowing, no matter what you do, that you will be stuck with the fat chick from the mailroom.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
That's a very interesting way to put it, Cosmo. I would point out that the last Browns title came in 1964 and the last Eagles title in 1960, so their hair must not be quite as long as the Eagles on one level.
On the Giants. Given Reese's track record with the draft, why would you want them to change anything?
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Fat chicks need lovin' too!
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Eagle fans don't get haircuts because if they do, the lobotomy scars will show.
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
Cosmo, you see what you did? Now all I'm getting are posts about overweight women and haircuts!
And being a Steelers fan means that you don't have to worry about anything!
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
And you are from Baltimore? Must be tough when you stop at the local watering hole to pull for the Black and Gold.
Housh ain't getting any younger and, say what you will about Ocho Cinco, but surely he helped distract coverage away from Housh. So my question, as an Eagles fan - is he worth all the $ some team is gonna throw at him?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Housh is an elite possession receiver. His acquisition would move Curtis to a #3 role that he excelled in while in St. Louis. It could be just what they need to make a Super Bowl run.
Jared (South Bend,IN)
do u think the titans will resign Haynesworth?and also, the titans are in need of a WR do u think they adress this problem with coles,harrison,galloway, or t.j? if not who?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
No on Al and maybe on a WR signing. They might go for Drew Bennett as well.
Maybe this is the season we get a hair cut from the stylist. Boldin has better numbers and the better receiver. Housh isnt bad but would come without dealing a 1st and a 3rd. What is the better scenario?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Don't believe the hype that says Boldin is a matchup buster. He's a possession receiver all the way (as detailed in some of my ESPN.com articles and in my Scientific Football books). Housh for no draft picks and big money is better than Boldin for picks and big money.
Cosmo (Anytown, USA)
Nice work today. I'm off to get my haircut.
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
I don't see anything that says the Dolphins re-signed Bell... Is that confirmed?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
To my understanding, no, but it looks like it will happen.
sorry for being rude earlier but i just got home and i want to know what you think but....do you think the good commish will let me play this year and if so what team is a good fit for me to jumpstart my career?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
My guess is Vick will have to sit out some more before the commish approves his return. It's really hard to say what team he would fit with because it would have to be an offense that would let him do his scrambling. Best move for him would be to adopt the Randall Cunningham phase two of his career and get comfortable being a veteran pocket passer.
Bell got 4 years 20 Mil with 10 guaranteed, just not showing up on espn.com yet
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
I"m sure it's in the works to be posted any moment now. Many thanks for the update.
Do you think, Nate Washington has what it takes to become a bonafide # 1 receiver or does he get exposed if he leaves the steel city
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
He's had some solid metrics over the years but I wouldn't bank on his being a #1 at this point. Pittsburgh has ways of working around player limitations and that's the case here. Well, hate to run but dinner is on the menu. Hope to see you all next week to talk about the impact of these FA signings!