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Joe Lunardi

  (3:00 PM)

Welcome to the last chat of February! Come Sunday, it's March, and everything counts double. Let's get started.

Brad (Ann Arbor)

How many games does Michigan NEED to win in the BIG 10 Tournament if they finish the regular season 19-12 (9-9)?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:03 PM)

There is never an absolute answer to questions like this, Brad. Michigan will be competing with up to a dozen teams for the last few at-large bids. What those teams do has almost as much impact on Michigan as what the Wolverines do themselves. As a rule, you never want to lose to someone below you in the conference tournament. Whether or not Michigan needs another tourney-level win isn't yet clear.

Frank (Allentown)

In your most recent version of Bracketology, how come Providence and Cincinatti are still on the outside looking in even with their respective wins this week. (Pittsburgh and West Virginia)

Joe Lunardi

  (3:05 PM)

At least five genuine bubble teams, including Providence and Cincinnati, have won significant games this week. This means, for each of those teams, we're still looking to evaluate an entire body of work. Providence is very close, but still a little short when compared to a Michigan or a Penn State. For Cincinnati, having been swept by Providence, it's logical to slot the Bearcats right behind the Friars.

Mike (Clifton Park, NY)

What are Siena's chances of getting an at large bid if they lose in the Maac championship? If they win out how high of a seeding could they get?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:07 PM)

The Saints have a big game tonight at Niagara and a possible third meeting with the Purple Eagles in the MAAC final. Siena can probably lose that third meeting if they win tonight. If they run the table, I could see them in an 8-9 game next month.

Julie South Carolina

I really do not think you are giving South Carolina enough credit. They seem find way a win in many big games. They deserve a much higher seed than 11. Giving Georgetown a 9 seed in their slump is ridiculous!

Joe Lunardi

  (3:08 PM)

Julie, you are looking at an old bracket, and one which came from a group mock-bracket exercise. Today's bracket has South Carolina as a 9-seed with Georgetown nowhere in sight.

Brian (AZ)

Joe, I love you work. thanks for the chat. If Utah wins out and wins the MWC tourney, how high of a seed can they see? Also any change the MWC gets 4 in?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:10 PM)

I think the feeling for Utah is realistically a 5 seed with a very outside chance at a 4. The MWC has been showing 4 bids for several weeks, but I've long thought that number would shrink to three. It has now (San Diego State dropping out of the field) and seems likely to stay at three when you look at upcoming matchups.

Andrew (Houston)

What does Maryland need to do to get in the tourney?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:11 PM)

My glib answer would be to win some road games that matter. My logical answer isn't too different.

mike. rhode island

hey joe, any chance the a-10 gets 3 team in, including my rhody rams?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:13 PM)

The Rams are hot, Mike, but still not particularly close to an at-large bid. The best-case scenario for the A-10 is for Dayton to keep winning in the regular season but for someone other than Xavier or Dayton to win the conference tournament, and I believe this is exactly what we'll see.

Mike (St. Paul, MN)

Do you think if the Gophers win one of the next 2 games they are in or do they need to win both to be in.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:14 PM)

I think Minnesota needs at least two, and possible three, more wins. Whether those wins come in the regular season or conference tourney doesn't much matter.

Eric (LA)

How high a seed do u think LSU can get, saying they win out and win the SEC tourney?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:15 PM)

LSU has won nine in a row, and that streak could get to 15 between now and selection Sunday. If it does, I can't imagine that the Tigers wouldn't be a top-4 seed somewhere.

Jack (Seattle, WA)

What gives dropping my Zags to a 7-seed? Just a result of other teams moving up? If they win out, what seed to you see them getting?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:17 PM)

I noticed the same thing when today's S-curve was completed, but when you look at Gonzaga side-by-side against the teams just ahead, this spot seems to make sense.

Jeff (THE OC)

RPI seems to be a good measure but clearly not perfect (ie Utah at 10). What are the other polls, ratings, criteria that the selection committee is going to rely on?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:20 PM)

RPI is the only formal ranking system compiled by the NCAA for its committee members, but each voter is entitled to use any other rating systems to help support their choices. I use RPI to generally identify teams that should be considered. Beyond that, there are many other factors that help govern selections. I think "whom did you play" "when did you play" and ultimately "where did you play" really come into the equation for the final NCAA berths.

Tim (Austin, TX)

I believe the play-in game should be between the final two at-large teams, not 2 small schools who won their tourny. Wouldn't Kentucky vs. Notre Dame be a little more interesting and a bit fairer?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:21 PM)

I have been advocating this for years, Tim, but have a better chance to be secretary of state. If and when the tournament ever expands, we're going to see more play-in games than bubble games, which is unfortunate.

Justin (Scottsdale, AZ)

Joe, can you clarify whether ASU can play in the west region since they are the hosts? I have seen some sites that say that they can (since its not being played at their home court) and others (including ESPN) that say they cannot. What is the official rule?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:22 PM)

The absolutely, positively cannot. The same applies to Memphis in the South, BC in the East, and Butler in the Midwest.

Dallas (Richmond, VA)

If Virginia Tech can beat Duke tomorrow are they in for sure?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:23 PM)

I'd give the Hokies 80-90% NCAA odds at that point. Va Tech is in an excellent position.

Brian (Champaign, IL)

What seed is Illinois looking at assuming they beat Michigan State and make it atleast to the Big Ten championship game?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:25 PM)

Those are two very big assumptions. However, if both were to come through, Illinois would be no worse than a #4 seed.

John (Memphis)

I know Memphis's chances at a #1 seed is unlikely. But if we lose in the conf usa tournament, can we slip below #2 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:26 PM)

I doubt it. It's one thing to be a fringe team competing for the top line. It's quite another to have the talent, depth and experience that Memphis enjoys. They're going to stay right about where they are.

James (Blacksburg,VA)

Name a few sleeper teams in the 3-7 seed range that can make a final four run.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:28 PM)

Can't really answer that without knowing the 3-7 seeds, along with their NCAA matchups. Having said that, I like LSU, Utah, and Cal among the more intriguing possibilities.

rich nj [via mobile]

if nova went on a crazy run and beat out GT and ND and the frairs and went on to win the big east tourney would they be up for a one seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:29 PM)

No, I wouldn't think so. Too many teams to pass at this point. A #2 seed is still within reach, though.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:30 PM)

I have to change computers. Back in five minutes. Bear with me, and sorry for the technical difficulties.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:33 PM)

Welcome back (and thanks for your patience).

Joe (NJ)

Penn State in - give me a break! How is an 9-7 Big Ten record with one of the worst non conference schedules better than an 8-7 7-8 team from the Big East. Take Notre Dame for instance who beat Louisville and Texas along with Providence. I realize PSU beat Illinois, but the Illini scored only 33 points and would have lost to high school teams that night.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:35 PM)

Penn State has also won at Michigan State, so that's two better road wins than Notre Dame. And it's not like the Irish had the most robust non-conference schedule.

Chatmaster

Joe, if Oklahoma wins the rest of their reg. season games, are they a lock 4 a # 1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:35 PM)

I believe so, yes.

Steve (Charlotte, NC)

Is there any team not in the ACC or Big East that can make a serious Final Four run? Maybe Memphis or MSU. Look for a 2 ACC 2 Big east final four this year, maybe even a UNC Duke Championship!

Joe Lunardi

  (3:36 PM)

I remember writing at least six weeks ago that if someone would give you an ACC/Big East combo "against the field" for the national championship, that you should take it. Nothing much has happened since then to chance my opinion.

Kevin (Charlotte, NC)

What is Dayton's chances of making the tourney assuming a loss against XU (away) and Temple (Home) in two of their last three games?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:37 PM)

Decent, Kevin, in that scenario. Just no more losing to lesser teams away from home (including the Atlantic 10 tournament).

Bill Hinker (Squirrel In House)

I come here every week and never get anything answered. It is very annoying. If Dayton wins 2 of their final three what seed are they? Did you get the squirrel out of your house?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:38 PM)

Have to answer his one just for fun. Yes, the squirrel is gone, and I think Dayton will continue to hover around a 10-11 seed the rest of the way.

Mark (South Bend)

Why do people keep throwing ND out there as a team that should get an at-large? They are not that far over .500 and their third best win is Providence. They play in the Big East, which is tough (although I will point out that the RPI considers it the 3rd toughest conference), but it doesn't matter if they can't beat the teams that they play. Shouldn't they need at least 3-4 more wins to have a legit shot?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:39 PM)

Mark, I agree with you 100 percent. It's nothing against Notre Dame; it's that I'm "for" winning.

Alex (NYC)

Memphis? Please, I think they benefit from not being on TV so people can't see how mediocre they are. There best wins are against Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Cinci. They lost to Xavier, Syracuse, and Georgetown. OVERRATED!

Joe Lunardi

  (3:40 PM)

I disagree completely (and that's OK for both of us!).

Adam (Cincinnati)

If Cincinnati finishes 3-0 down the stretch 20-10 (11-7) is that enough? If they do not beat Syracuse what do they have to do in the BE tourney in your eyes?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:41 PM)

A 3-0 finish would probably just do it for the Bearcats, assuming other bubble teams don't start turning into the Celtics.

Fo Sheezy, Pittsburgh

Joe, Great work on the brackets every year! Let me ask a question though. It appears as if you have pitt as the #4 overall seed. Please explain how Pitt's overall resume is worse than that of UConn, UNC, and Oklahoma. Granted, Pitt lost at Providence, but is that really any worse than losing at home to Georgetown (which UConn did), home against BC and at Maryland (which UNC did), or at 1-13 in the SEC Arkansas (which Oklahoma did). What do you base Pitt as the #4 overall seed on? Thanks in advance!!!

Joe Lunardi

  (3:42 PM)

I have Pitt at No. 2 overall in today's bracket.

Greg - philly

If nova wins out (including the B.E. tourney) will they get a #1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

That would depend as much on Oklahoma and the ACC as it would Villanova.

Jackson (Cali)

Who is the most underrated team seeded #2-6 in your latest bracketology... the most underrated?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

I'm gonna' go Missouri on that one.

Mark (Boston)

I understand that RPI is the only formula used by the NCAA committee right now, but there has to be something better. Duke has a better RPI right now than UCONN which just seems absurd. Nobody would say they are a better team... is there just too much emphasis on SOS since they are supposedly 6 and UCONN is 35th? I see your RPI is much different... what's that about?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:44 PM)

The "LunaRPI" only counts road and neutral games (like the tournament itself).

Joe Lunardi

  (3:45 PM)

OK, time for "rapid fire" before I head to TV.

Brad (Chicago, IL)

Joe, Great job every year! Miami, VT, Maryland - in your opinion, who will get in and who will be left out based on the rest of the season and ACC tourney? Right now, MD is out and Miami and VT are in. You think it'll finish that way?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:45 PM)

I think VaTech makes it, Miami goes right to the edge and Maryland misses.

Brian (Niagara Falls, NY)

What influenced your decicision in switching to Niagara winning the MAAC championship over Siena in your latest bracket, when it seems most every other sports analyst out there is always on the Siena train especailly after their win last year in the tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:46 PM)

Monday's bracket was a demonstration exercise with the NCAA. Today's bracket reflects my more typical evaluation process.

Seth (Berkeley)

Can you explain why UCLA has a better overall profile than Cal?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:47 PM)

I'm not sure anyone is saying that. They are in nearly identical positions on the current S-Curve.

Fo Sheezy, Pittsburgh

Joe, you say you have Pitt as #2 overall seed, but the top right corner of "Bracketology" has Pitt and UConn's respective brackets matching up in the Fnal Four. Is that not the case or do you have UConn as the number 3 overall seed? That doesn;t make sense wither so I will assume that the regional Final Four pairings aren't accurate on the page.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:48 PM)

Did not know that (we are wrong and you are right). When in doubt, click on Nitty-Gritty to get my latest S-Curve).

J-Bob (Milwaukee)

How much will Marquette's loss of Dominic James affect their seeding?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:48 PM)

The committee will wait to see how they play in his absence before making that determination.

Jonathan (Buffalo, NY)

I don't remember a weaker top 15 teams then this... an overrated Cuse team beat Kansas in Kansas City and won at Memphis... Both will likely be top 3 seeds. What gives?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:49 PM)

I disagree. I like the depth (and parity) of this year's field.

Chris (NYC)

Joe, any chance of L'ville getting a #1 seed? what would have to happen?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:49 PM)

As Al Davis says, "Just win, baby...."

Vin (PC)

JOE PLEASE ANSWERDo the friars need to win there last two games ( at Rutgers and at Villanova)to make the tourney? Or is the win at Rutgers which would give us 10 big east wins good enough to get in?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:50 PM)

Not enough (unless a long MSG run is in their future).

Joe Lunardi

  (3:50 PM)

That's it for me, gang. Off to TV. Have a great weekend. THANKS, Joe.