Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
Good afternoon! Lots of free agency moves to talk about so let's get started.
Will Sheppard be a star for the Jets this season?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Sheppard's value for the Jets will be almost completely related to how many ints he gets. His YPA over the years has been below average or worse (it was 13.0 last year) so don't expect him to be a coverage specialist.
Austin, college park md [via mobile]
TO to the jets...what do you think?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Owens might be a good fit for a team making a one-year Super Bowl run but he's getting closer and closer to hitting the same wall Harrison and Holt have hit of late. He also ranked 24th in YPA out of 33 receivers who saw at least 100 passes thrown their way. He's on his way down and the Jets should take a pass.
I am already prepared for a negative answer, but do you see Jake Grove being a good addition to the Dolphins line?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Satele didn't grade out badly last year so I'm wondering if maybe the Fins didn't like his line call ability. If that was the case and Grove is better at doing that, this should be a good pickup for them.
Kennesaw georgia [via mobile]
Will brian dakins play at the samd level with the broncos as he did with the eagles?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Dawkins still has it but the Eagles knew how to best utilize his skills. Denver probably won't ask him to do all the things Philly did and will make him more of a standard coverage safety. He'll do just fine in that role.
Coles on the Bengals. Bad? OK? Good? Great?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Coles had the same YPA as Owens, so he was also tied for 24th in the previously mentioned category. He also had abysmal vertical numbers so he's strictly a possession receiver at this point.
My Browns have not been very active in free agency is that because no one want,s to sign here
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
From what I understand, it's not been due to a lack of effort on their part. Their lack of success has been more of a mix of reasons, some being money and others maybe being not wanting to play for Mangini (his NY reputation of being a hard nosed guy is following him).
Jason (Cape Cod MA)
Is DeAngelo Hall and Hanyesworth a good investment? Should the Redskins also go after TO or Roy Williams?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
Hall had a terrible year with Oakland but his figures while in Washington were quite good (under 6.0 YPA). I wouldn't have paid him the cash they did simply because I don't know that he would have drawn that on the market but if he keeps playing as well as he did for the Skins last year, it's a good signing. Haynesworth is a dominant game changer who will have a huge positive impact on their D. And I'd vote no on both TO and Williams for them.
Broad Street Brian (philly)
Is TO done as a player? Once teams started playing press coverage on him his production dropped bigtime. Is he worth the money/headache anymore?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
I wouldn't go so far as to call him done but he's just another wideout at this point of his career. Thirty-five year old players almost never see an improvement in their skills and his production has been dropping off for three years in a row. If a team is really hard pressed for WRs he's worth signing but otherwise I'd skip the headache.
How did Lee Evans do last year in YPA? The Bills are looking in free agency for another vet WR, who is the best available?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Evans was 7th among qualifiers and 2nd among WRs with 100 or more passes. I might Holt for them if St. Louis grants him his release as reportedly requested.
ryan enid,ok [via mobile]
how do you think the chiefs will do with matt cassel at qb?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
I'm going to stick my neck out a bit on this one and say it would not surprise me if Tyler Thigpen gives Cassel a run for his money for the starting role (assuming their is an open and honest competition for it). Thigpen displayed starter level chops the second half of 2008 despite playing behind a terrible O line and having no wideouts. He's good and Cassel will have his hands full if there is a competition.
Do you see the Pats making a move for Julius Peppers? What would it cost them?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Yes I could. I think it's one of the reasons they have been clearing away cap space.
would holt be a good fit with the giants?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Only if they can't pick up Edwards in a trade. Holt still has a bit left and he is such a pro's pro that he would help the young WRs learn some of the subtleties of the trade.
Jason: (hackettstown, nj) [via mobile]
Im frustrated that the eagles have done nothing more than let alot of players go and have signed only one. Do you think they are looking more to the draft then to free agency?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
I'm a bit surprised that Philly hasn't been more active. Letting Dawkins go was a shock as well. I think they will target one of the OTs in the draft so that explains their not signing Thomas but I'm at a loss at their lack of movement in other areas. It's like they don't know if they want to rebuild or try to stock up for a Super Bowl run.
KC, quick follow-up please! I see bloggers & such reference this Brraylon to the Giants rumor...how possible is it? are the 2 teams in talks? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
I've heard and read conflicting things on this front. My gut says where there is smoke there is fire and since Edwards doesn't look to be a Mangini type of player, I wouldn't be surprised if this move eventually is pulled off.
Kris Syracuse [via mobile]
Would the Bills be smart looking at Marvin Harrison for a 2 reciever?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
He's similar to Holt in that he has a bit left on his tread. Indy probably would have kept him for the right price. He'd be an upgrade for the Bills but even if they sign him, they need a longer term solution. It can't be all Evans all the time.
You seem to know your stats so how about tallying Philly and Dallas' win/loss record with and without T.O. over the last six years and then explain how he's "just another receiver"?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Dustin, we aren't talking about Owens' value in 2004-2008. We're talking about his value going forward. He's 35 and has been in a marked decline for three years now. He isn't the dominant WR he used to be and that's why Dallas let him go. They were willing to put up with the headache that is Owens if he was a dominant player but not if he is just a solid WR and nothing more.
If the Raiders get T.O. What do they do with the 7th overall pick?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
I'd imagine they would go O line, especially given how deep the draft is in O tackles.
Any viable options at CB still available that won't be asking for 6M+ a year? Eric Green for instance?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Green is a viable nickel option but nothing more. I like McFadden as well.
Why haven't the Packers made a single move? They don't have the personnel to run a 3-4 yet haven't done a thing about it.
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Because their management doesn't want to overpay for players. Mind you, I agree that they need some personnel improvements and could get some of those for a reasonable dollar if they bargain shopped, but evidently that's not how they see it.
Pats Fan (Foxboro)
The Patriots traded an undisclosed pick for Greg Lewis. What information do you have on him?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
He's got some vertical chops. Don't look for him to be a starter but he could give them 20-30 quality vertical attempts over the course of a season.
Scott (Spanish Fork, UT)
Do you think a team would sign Roy Williams and convert him to OLB? I think that's probably more of his forte anyway, and at this point in his carrer, his coverage skills won't improve. Either way, could you see Al Davis making a run at him?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
He's a hitter safety and Al likes those, so going Oakland's way wouldn't be a surprise. I don't know if they would move him to OLB but they have made use of a rover type position over the years and could use him there.
I've been thinking about T.O and where he'll go since he got released late last night. Do you think the Houston Texans will be a great fit for him? Andre will benefit from him and Matt will find him, the team have shown promise and i think he's just what they need to make to the playoffs.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Houston doesn't need him. Kevin Walter ranked 2nd in vertical YPA among WRs last year and they also have Anderson. Add in a quality receiving TE like Owen Daniels and Schaub has all of the receiving targets he needs.
Matt (New York)
I know you probably won't answer this question because it has to do with the Seahawks, but now that they've signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, do you see them drafting crabtree with the #4 pick, going o-line or d-line, or taking stafford?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Hey now, I've answered many Seattle questions over the years, or at least as many as I could given that their fans don't write in that many questions. I would think Seattle would go for line help (either side), as I don't think Stafford will be there when they are up to bat.
Kevin (Carlisle, PA)
It appears that the Steelers are not in play for McFadden? How do you think William Gay will play as full-time starter next year? I thought he played pretty well this year.
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Gay had a 3.6 YPA (that's not a typo) in part time play last year. That's probably the reason the Steelers aren't worried about keeping McFadden.
The Pats are rumoured to be getting Shawn Springs, and he will definitely help the CB cause. Still, I am curious as to how long you believe Jason Taylor will be on the market for? Everyone in Patriot Nation wants him or Peppers to replace Vrabel, but we're not sure as to how long we have to wait for an answer.
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
If they get Springs, he'll be the best vet CB signing they've made (and they sure have had a lot of those over the past few years). He has the best cumulative YPA of any CB over the five seasons I've been doing this. Peppers still has plenty left in his tank so getting him would be a great pickup as well.
Brady and Ray Lewis are the only two players (with strong teams/coaches behind them) that have a shot at controlling T.O., I think that Ray Lewis has the best chance, but can you imagine T.O., Moss, and Welker together? Might be a bit on the aged side, but still...
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
No offense to Brady or Lewis or any coach but no one can handle Owens. He's been an issue for just about every coach he's played for on both the college and pro levels. He can't be controlled and now that age is eating away at his skills, I can guarantee you some teams might go out of their way to let him know they don't want him.
Desean Jackson, Anquan Boldin, Braylon Edwards. Who do you see as Eagles #1 WR
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Jackson. He has #1 WR chops and Philly will stick with developing him over overpaying in the market.
Ryan (San Diego)
Any chance Roy Williams could end up in Detroit?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
I doubt it if only because he'll have other options and FAs seem to be avoiding Detroit. That actually surprises me because Schwartz has a very good reputation and Gunther Cunningham is a player's coach. The Lions will also pay reasonable value but the combination of those three factors isn't overcoming 0-16.
rex ryan (east rutherford, NJ) [via mobile]
Now that I've dominated the free agent market on the defensive side, what should I do about the jets qb and wr situation?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
I've said this repeatedly - the Jets should go after JP Losman. Losman has better metrics than Clemens on many levels and has huge upside potential.
Robert (Latrobe, PA)
With so many teams looking to acquire tackles, why hasn't anyone at least given a cheap 2-year offer to Marvel Smith? I know he has an injury history, but surely his metrics are at least decent.
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
It has to do with the depth of OTs in the draft. Since many teams drafted quality LTs the past two years, there isn't as much need leaguewide at that position and anyone who needs an OT will likely be able to get one in the first round.
raymond (san francisco)
Is this the year Vernon Davis finally shows what he can do?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
He's already shown what he can do, which is to say not much.
Ajit, Saratoga CA
Hey KC, is it just me or do you also feel like Detroit is headed in the right direction? They have quite a few draft picks, low expectations, and what looks like a solid staff that has a direction in mind
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
They'll get better in a hurry. I'd not be shocked if they ran up 6 wins this year.
Why oh why is Jacksonville avoiding signing big name free agents? Chemistry is created, it isn't inherent in low caliber players. Hint wayne weaver, they have big names for a reason.
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
I'm betting that getting burned on the terrible FA signing that was Drayton Florence last year made them hesitant to make more moves this year.
Can the Steelers O-line keep Big Ben off his back next year?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
They can't get much worse on that front. I think they will look to stock up on O linemen in the draft.
Burwell (Addison, PA)
Cassell got all the attention, but does Vrabel have anything left to offer to the Chiefs, or is he there more as a leader than a player?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
He still has something to offer in pass rushing skills (something KC desperately needs) but I'd keep him off the field on running plays. His metrics there have been abysmal the past couple of years.
Any chance the dolphins make a move to get J.Taylor back or any chance that T.O washes up there? they could use the help in the wr position, if not what do they address with the draft and free agency?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
The words Jason Taylor/TO will only show up in the opponent's side of a Dolphins press release. No way they pick up either of those two.
ATL's Chris Houston had some good and some very poor games. Overall how did his metrics come out?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
7.5 YPA, or right around league average. I'd expect that to improve in 2009.
What do you think of Denver's FA strategy? They seem to have signed a ton of "role" players -- but guys that should help them win.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
I think McDaniels and company realized they had a lot more personnel holes to fill than was generally realized. This FA pool had more depth than big names and they took good advantage of that. I like their approach.
Tommy, Panama City, FL
With Mcfadden not finding a home yet, what are the chances of him resigning with the Steelers???
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
McFadden is maybe the last good FA CB out there. They have been commanding high dollar marks this year (CBs, that is) and that may be why McFadden hasn't found a home yet. If his price drops, he'll go back to Pittsburgh but don't bet on that happening just yet.
I've seen several mock drafts that have the Jaguars grabbing Sanchez at #8. Was Garrard really that bad as a starter last year? Surely some halfway decent WRs would help much more than a new QB.
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
He had a 6.9 YPA but you are right that given his lack of WRs, one has to wonder what his YPA ceiling would have been. I wouldn't go QB in their position but they've struck out drafting WRs over the years so maybe they are trying another tack.
what position do you think atlanta should sign first olb, cb or safety
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
OLB, but I don't think they have a huge need at any of those three positions.
Seth (Portland, ME)
What is your take on the trade of Cassel to the Broncos, Cutler to Bucs and 1st rounder to Pats, was it really too late to go back on BB's word or is something going on here?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
That series of moves makes sense on a dozen levels but there may have been too many politics involved to make it work out.
Cosmo (Anytown, USA)
After a week of questionable (to be nice) moves, it looks like the Eagles are aiming for the fat chick from the copyroom, huh?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
I just knew we weren't going to make it through a chat without a fat chick reference from Cosmo!
it's looking more and more likely that angelo will not sign any free agent WRs or draft one high. do you have any faith in hester's ability to become a #1 or maybe bennett becoming a solid #2?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
I would have said no on Hester until I saw his 2008 metrics. He posted an 8.2 YPA and a 60% success rate. Those are more consistent totals than I thought he could post but I'm still not entirely sold that he is cut out to be a true #1.
Richard (Waterloo, WI)
Two part question. How far is Michael Crabtree going to fall in the draft? Do the Cowboys have enough ammunition to move and pick him if he falls back far enough?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
The draft gurus have him going as far down as mid first round. If Dallas is willing to part with some future value, they could position themselves to pick him.
I'm surprised to hear you say that the Broncos are going to make Dawkins more of a "regular coverage safety" - it seems to me that Dawk didn't start looking like the player we remembered here in Philly until the Eagles let him play the run more late in the season - do you think he's still got the speed to play coverage? I'd think that he'd be playing run support and Renaldo Hill will be the deep guy...
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
Josh, I've been such a Dawkins backer over the years that maybe my sentiment is getting the better of me (which is rare because I am usually so cold-hearted about player analysis). Hill is an OK cover safety but it's not like he's a youngster either.
Matt, Staten Island
Are the Dolphins just planning on filling holes via the draft? Seems like there is no Senior leadership presence on the team....
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
Leadership doesn't have to be acquired - it can be developed. Let's also not forget that one really good vet leader can often be all that a team needs to get the leadership lessons they need.
KC- Doesn't TO in KC just make sense this year. Imagine Cassell throwing to TO, Bowe and Tony G or handing off to LJ who wont have to worry about 7 men in the box. With 45 million to spend and uncapped year 2010. Why not?
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
It sounds good on paper but Owens can have that same leadership impact on younger players as mentioned in the previous post, but only in a negative way. The Chiefs won't want to teach him poor habits to their youngsters. Plus the draft is filled with a lot of quality WRs and KC could go that route to add another receiving threat.
K ( Maryland )
What are the Giants going to do with the #1 WR spot dont get me wrong I love Hixon Smith and all those guys but lets be honest no #1.. Why didn't they make a push at Housh???
KC Joyner (5:04 PM)
It all comes down to vertical numbers. Housh only had 26 vertical passes thrown to him last year. He's simply not a stretch the field kind of guy.
JayDee (sacramento, CA) [via mobile]
what else do the dolphins need to do in free agency/draft to make a title run? are championship expectations a little far-fetched?
KC Joyner (5:05 PM)
If they could get some additional help at WR, and if the safety experiment works out, they are a good darkhorse AFC title contender. Well, Mrs. Scientist is finishing up dinner so I've got to run. Hope to see you all next week!