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Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:01 PM)

Good afternoon everyone! Glad to be here to chat with you today, just got back from a weekend in Phoenix, and ready to talk fantasy ... especially baseball! Let's get started.

max ny

should i do a-rod for hamilton.if not.should i do it for beltran.i have longoria

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:02 PM)

Yes and yes. My stance on A-Rod is I'm terrified. But I say that partially as a fan who would hate the double misery of having him both sag the spirits of my real-life and fantasy team.

Rob (NJ)

Tristan I don't trust that Penny or Smoltz will be able to hold up an entire year...Am I crazy for picking up Masterson late and hoping for maybe 10 wins? He's been really solid so far...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:04 PM)

I don't think that's a big leap, Rob. Brad Penny already is having health problems this spring and the guy hasn't been able to maintain a full year's production out of one season his entire career. Smoltz, meanwhile, might not be ready until what, June? I'm a Justin Masterson fan, and I do think he's a candidate for that fifth starter job. As a late-round pick, more in AL-only formats, I do like him.

joe ct

joey votto or youk as my 5th keeper?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:04 PM)

It's got to be Kevin Youkilis by 2009 projection, but for the record, I believe in Mr. Votto. Just not in your case is all.

Al (Kahalik, MN)

Good Afternoon Tristan! Just how good is Strasburg? Could he really play MLB THIS year? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:06 PM)

The buzz on him is tremendous, but I've heard similar chatter about quite a few draft prospects making the leap before -- Jered Weaver for one -- and haven't seen it happen. He'll need to ink a deal and fast, and even then it'd probably be smarter to give him a little minor league time. Good chance we'll be seriously discussing him a year from now, though.

Tom (Boulder,CO):

What do you think of Felipe Lopez and Skip Schumaker as final round MI sleepers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:08 PM)

Lopez will help you in the stolen-base department but hurt your batting average, potentially, while Schumaker is one of those "safe" plays in batting average who won't overwhelm in the counting categories. By the way, Schumaker might need two weeks to qualify at second in most leagues. I like him much more in daily leagues where you can match him up, too. And that leads me to say Lopez is the smarter choice, not that I dislike either late.

Pete, Cincy, OH

Do Anderason or Cahill have a chance to make worthwhile contributions in Oakland this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:09 PM)

Certainly, with that rotation, but I wouldn't be drafting under the assumption you'll be getting more than a half-season out of either. This is the kind of tip more for deep AL-only or keeper-league owners. I'm a Cahill fan, with that ground-ball rate of his.

Derek (Baltimore)

What do you think about Ryan Spilborghs? 20/20 possibly?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:10 PM)

I missed out on him in LABR this past weekend because I lacked the funds and was disappointed, so obviously I like him. Could be the Rockies' leadoff hitter and regular center fielder, and it's not unthinkable he'll have a Jayson Werth-like year.

Mr. Ethier (City of Angels)

Me or my bud Shin-Soo Choo?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:12 PM)

You. But I like Choo as a late-round sleeper. Very underrated.

Sean (NY,NY)

1 Year Keeper - Soto (C) or Shields (SP)?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:14 PM)

It's probably smarter to keep the catcher here, since the values aren't far off and I'm confident in my ability to adequately replace the pitcher. That's the kind of thing that matters when you're making decisions like this.

Joe (Morris Plains, NJ)

what do you think about Chris Volstad?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:15 PM)

I think he'll be a fine mid-rotation candidate with time, but the guy put way too many balls in play for my tastes last year. That leaves a high margin for error, and it makes me wary of drafting him outside of as a last-man-on-your-staff type.

Tito (New Mexico)

Better 12th Round Keeper: Adam Dunn or Cliff Lee?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:15 PM)

Cliff Lee.

Scott (NJ)

Can't believe Andre Ethier was asking the same question I wanted answered! How about Wainwright or Josh Johnson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:17 PM)

Adam Wainwright, but that's more my being confident he'll hold up than I am about Josh Johnson. And yes, I did pick Johnson for my 2009 sleeper when we ran those at New Year's, so it's obvious how much I must like Wainwright.

Justin (Queens, NY)

Are you a Volquez believer? Would you take him over Verlander, Wainwright, Baker or Scherzer in a keeper league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:18 PM)

I am not, but I'd take him over Justin Verlander (it's close). And the first thing I get in reaction to saying "no, I'm not an Edinson Volquez believer" is always something to the effect of "are you nuts," except more ... ahem ... colorful, so I'll detail it by saying great career, but I have my doubts for 2009. Most of them are Dusty Baker-related. I just see this year being a blip on the radar screen of a fine career.

Ben (Cuyahoga Falls, OH)

Does anyone reach 40/40 this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:20 PM)

Nope. Getting harder and harder to do as pitching begins to catch up with hitting again! Heck, we might not have a 30/30 man this year. If anyone's going to go 40/40, it's Hanley Ramirez, period. I could see a year of that in his career, though not this one.

Joe, Seattle

Please help: Must keep 2 of 3 in 10 team AL only:Matsui, Buerhle, Giambi.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:22 PM)

Yuck. Frankly, none of those guys is a "keeper" by my definition. But I know some leagues are deep enough that you keep practically everything. If it must be two of these three, it's Jason Giambi and Mark Buehrle for me. Hideki Matsui scares me, I don't think he's completely healthy.

Brian (Queens, NY)

In a deep league here - do you think its worth taking a flier on Jody Gerut? Can he stay healthy? He hit 323/358/638(!) after the all star break last year and qualifies in CF in my league.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:23 PM)

I think Gerut is what he is, a perfect platoon mate in center field for Scott Hairston. Use him as anything more and I think he's overexposed, which means that I wouldn't be ranking him any higher than the rate he earned in 2008, which was pretty much mid-to-late round NL-only value.

Steve (Denver)

Projections for Chris Davis? Would you consider taking him before Atkins?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:24 PM)

I bet I'm subjecting myself to violence if I answer another Chris Davis question, right? But no, I would not.

Charlie (NYC)

How early is too early to take Ian Kinsler? Here's why I ask. I have the 10th pick in a 12 team draft. I keep passing on a 2B w/ the 10th and 15th picks and can't get Utley, Kinsler, Pedroia, or Phillips when it comes back to me in the 3rd round. Should I just take best available and be cool with it?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:25 PM)

If you feel that strongly about Ian Kinsler in the second round, I'd say go with your instincts. It's early, yes, but I wouldn't say so early as to be laughable. For the record, I've seen Brandon Phillips slip beneath the 34th pick overall, if that helps your decision-making.

Adam (Chicago, IL)

Would you trade your 2nd round pick (20th overall) for a 3rd (26th overall) and 5th round (48th overall) picks? Any rule of thumb you use when trading draft picks?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:29 PM)

A six-pick drop early on in exchange for picking up the No. 48 pick overall doesn't seem at all a bad deal for you. I'd look at it that way, but beyond that, the best advice I can give on draft-pick trading is that for every round that passes, the levels of breakout potential decrease noticeably, while the risk of a "bust" pick increases substantially. I wish I could give you exact percentage of probability of success by round -- it's something I've been thinking about a lot this spring -- but I'd say you're not putting yourself at much risk here.

Zach (PA)

I need a deep deep deep sleeper pitcher for this season. So deep that Colin Balester is rosterable. Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:30 PM)

Well, I took Balester himself in the reserve rounds of LABR, so obviously I classify him as one of those. The aforementioned Justin Masterson would be on that list. I told a buddy of mine Ryan Rowland-Smith at that uber-deep level. Also Andrew Miller. And Micah Owings. And Josh Kinney. And James McDonald, J.A. Happ and Jose Veras. Folks, this is very deep, remember.

Mark (Austin, TX)

What is your take on the Rich Hill situation? Is he worth a flyer in a deep 16 team dynasty league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:31 PM)

Absolutely. If he tells me he wasn't entirely healthy last year, I tend to believe him. That said, I wouldn't be spending more than, say, $5 on him in an AL-only league. But that's the kind of late-round sleeper I like.

Aaron(Normal, IL)

Will Gordon Beckham play for the White Sox at some point this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:32 PM)

You know, Aaron, that's a good question, and I've begun wondering it myself. He's one of the players I saw out in the Cactus League who impressed me, and granted, that was just one game. But that kid played second base on that day, and was spraying doubles to the opposite field with ease. Looks like a real polished hitter for his age. I won't go so far as to say there's any 2009 value in him, but I have a sneaking suspicion I'll be abuzz about him one year from today.

chuck(chi, il)

Expectations on BRETT MYERS in PHILLY. Keep 4 P.Manning, Wayne, Welker, LT, ADDAI Thanx!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:33 PM)

I think Brett Myers' second half and postseason are the real Brett Myers, but with his track record for inconsistency, I'm not going to break the bank to get him (as I'd have needed to this weekend). And I'd throw Wes Welker back. Seems the most replaceable of that bunch.

Tom (Boulder,CO)

I think it would be interesting if you could create a draft pick value like the NFL has, but for Fantasy sports. Assign each pick a point value and then compare total points in the trade. This of course would be subjective and could vary by year, but a rough estimate would be a great tool.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:35 PM)

I appreciate the suggestion Tom, and this was very much the kind of thing I had been thinking about. Understand it's a real project to actually do, though, but I will absolutely keep it in mind.

Zack, Salem OR

In general, do you beleive in trading for someone with proven stats over someone whose projections are greater? I have A Nelson Cruz for Rick Ankiel proposed to me in a keeper league right now.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:36 PM)

Well, are either of these guys "proven" stats? I can't say Ankiel is what I'd define as "proven." In which case I'd rather go for the higher upside, which is Cruz. I'm not even a Cruz fan, either. And that's generally how I approach these things, depends on the players involved. If it's in an early round, where I need to build a strong nucleus, I'm less apt to take big chances.

Ben (Cuyahoga Falls, OH)

If Pedro or Pudge get signed what are their fantasy values?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:38 PM)

Not a fan of either, but Pedro Martinez could be a matchups type, a closer candidate or complete garbage depending on where he lands. At best I think he's a late-round pick in an AL- or NL-only league. Pudge will almost assuredly be picked like a No. 2 mixed-league catcher, but he shouldn't be. He'll be backup material, period, and he looked done as a fantasy contributor to me in 2008.

Ted

thoughts on Anthony Reyes? Breakout this year? or just a run of the mill type pitcher?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:39 PM)

If that kid is healthy, he's going to surprise you. Sounds like he'll be the Indians' fourth starter, and I like what the change of scenery did for him late last year. Again, this is all if he's healthy, because I doubt him in that regard far more than I do his talent.

Zach (PA)

So say that all of those deep sleeper starters are taken besides Kinney and Veras (who don't look they are in a rotation), and I am in serious need of starting pitching. Should I make a trade?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:40 PM)

They're not in rotations, no, I must have missed that part of the question. (Sorry!) And if Ryan Rowland-Smith is already owned in your league, then yes, you absolutely need to pursue a trade, I'd think. Of course, maybe there's someone out there rated higher than those guys that I'm missing. Can't see the list of available players.

chuck (chicago)

ITS A PPR does that change your mind any on WELKER???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:41 PM)

Yes, sure, he's one of the players most helped by that scoring change, but still not irreplaceable. My response would remain the same.

Joel (Atlanta, GA)

Tristan...it's very hard to trade in my league. The only person that ever wants to trade with me is my waiver wire. Do you have any specific tips for drafting (via auction) in a league where I'm probably not going to be able to make a trade? How would your draft/auction mentality differ?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:42 PM)

Draft balanced and do not punt! And if you must be weak in one spot, make it either starting or relief pitching (but not both). That's the place you're more likely to find quality waiver adds, but I'll speak from experience that while saves can be had off the waiver wire, you won't be getting them unless you're your league's waiver-wire hound. I won't give you that casual "get saves off free agency," because that's the fact of the matter, you must be on the wire every day to make that a successful strategy.

frank - salt lake city

what do you think of gallardo and how high would you go for him in an auction league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:43 PM)

I like him and worry less about him than your traditional injury-risk young pitcher because his 2008 issues weren't arm-related. I'd say $18-20 in an NL-only league, probably in the $12-15 range in mixed (but the latter is ballparking it).

Rob (Frankfort, IL)

Thoughts on Elvis Andrus???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:44 PM)

I took him both of our recent mixed-league mocks very late, which might lead some to think I love the guy, but I don't. I just believe the Rangers will give him every opportunity to play, that's a good situation for a hitter to break into and the kid can run. If I can get 25 steals for sure out of my shortstop (or middle infielder), I'm happy to take a final-round mixed chance on him.

Ben (Cuyahoga Falls, OH)

Best closer that is flying under the radar?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:45 PM)

Chad Qualls. I'm sold. A $13 buy on my part in LABR-NL.

Dave (DC)

Tristan-- Can you give us some late round Power/Speed sleepers--something along the lines of a Nate McClouth for 2009?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:47 PM)

I felt like I had a McLouth candidate in mind a few days ago and don't remember who it was, but somehow, Adam Jones' name pops into my head. So does Fred Lewis, though he's more for speed than power, and Lastings Milledge.

Jack (Richmond Hill)

I have the 1st pick in a keeper league. Pls help me choose from; AGonz, ARam, Soto, Kemp, BJUpton, Crawford or Granderson. (I already own Markakis/Ichiro/Phillips and Atkins)

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:49 PM)

Aramis Ramirez is my most highly rated of that bunch and then Matt Kemp, and I think Kemp probably makes the most sense from a keeper perspective. He's already comparably valued to any of the guys listed here and has more room for growth than anyone here but Upton.

Jon (Cleveland)

How would you rank Sizemore, Manny, Miggy and Braun?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:49 PM)

Braun, Sizemore, Miggy and Manny, and the first three are entirely interchangeable if you have a strong personal opinion. All three great mid-to-late first rounders.

Big Al (Philly)

Football keeper question! I have Mike Turner for $12. Do I keep MJD @$12 or the beast Larry Fitz @$26? Cap is $200.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:50 PM)

Keep the running back, keep the running back, keep the running back.

Chris Columbus

Qualls over Frank Francisco?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:51 PM)

Never said I disliked Francisco, and I do think of the third tier of closers he might be the best bargain of the bunch, but I think Qualls has a little stronger hold on his job. I've listened to several people try to convince me that Qualls is no lock for saves, but I think he's the smartest pick Arizona has, and he did finish last year rather strong.

Jacob (Portland):

Who are your 5 players that you think will breakout this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:53 PM)

Hmmm ... Let's say Stephen Drew, Matt Garza, Alex Gordon, Josh Johnson and the aforementioned Mr. Qualls.

Billy (Aspen, CO)

What are your thoughts on Jeremy Hermida? What's his ceiling?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:55 PM)

As someone who has always believed in him I have a hard time giving up on him, especially when I see that he was a .288/.364/.487 hitter on the road in 2008. That makes me wonder whether maybe a change of scenery is necessary for him to truly break out. I'd take a final-round chance on him since in the worst case you'd just replace him in-season, but I'm also not expecting any big breakthrough, I admit.

Tony - Trenton, NJ

Miguel Cabrera (who I think is going to have a monster year) or David Wright for 09?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:56 PM)

It's David Wright for me but when you're talking about what, a few bucks' difference in the first round, is it really bad to go with your gut instinct?

Jocelyn (Spokane, WA)

Late round flier for my bench- Will Milton Bradley do anything note-worthy this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:58 PM)

(Insert injury-related joke here.) I have a hard time kidding about Bradley, because I'm a fan (fantasy-wise, of course). He's great when he plays, but every game he plays past 100 is gravy.

Rank 'Em (please)

Danks, Harang, Garza, Baker.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (3:59 PM)

I've got them Scott Baker, Matt Garza, John Danks and Aaron Harang, and I'd be happy to have any one of them on my team.

Brian

Can you tell me your team roster (with dollar values) for the latest LABR draft? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:00 PM)

CYadier Molina$9CRamon Castro$11BPrince Fielder$312BChase Utley$363BBrett Wallace$1SSStephen Drew$22CIAdam LaRoche$16MIEugenio Velez$8OFHunter Pence$26OFRandy Winn$14OFJosh Anderson$6OFMicah Hoffpauir$1OFMatt Stairs$1DHMatt Diaz$1PChad Billingsley$23PBrian Wilson$13PChad Qualls$13PHiroki Kuroda$11PChris Perez$10PUbaldo Jimenez$9PCarlos Villanueva$4PJamie Moyer$2PMicah Owings$1PCarlos Carrasco$1Reserves:SP Tim Redding3B Juan UribeSP Collin BalesterSP Seth McClungSP Franklin MoralesSP Kyle Kendrick

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:00 PM)

Remember that LABR is a 13-team NL-only league. Seriously, we own everyone. I think my cat was next on my list for the reserve draft if we went another round.

Jim (NJ)

Blalock, this years Huff?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:02 PM)

That's an extremely interesting comparison Jim, but I'd be shocked if Hank Blalock stayed healthy enough to match Aubrey Huff's games played from 2008. Let's put it this way: If Blalock stays healthy and in Texas every day, sure, he has that kind of offensive potential. But the risk is great, and I think it smarter to regard him a short-term option or matchups type.

Ignorant (Canada)

What is LABR? Different than Tout Wars?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:02 PM)

Nope, very similar. That's in a couple of weeks.

Scott (NJ)

Buzzer beater! Whats the difference between Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:03 PM)

Andrus will be in Texas on Opening Day and Escobar will be in Triple-A. Also, I think Andrus is quicker, a better steals source.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (4:05 PM)

OK folks, time to wrap things up for the day. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I didn't get to yours. Take care everyone, and see you Thursday!