ESPN

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...

Ryan (San Francisco, CA)

In Head to Head leagues, is it a good idea to punt saves and focus on compiling a better group of starters that you can rotate into the lineup, then pick up the 2nd in line relievers where the 1st option is shaky towards the end of the draft?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

Not necessarily. I've seen head-to-head leagues where the smarter strategy is to load up on closers, avoid starters and then stream them in daily in order to maximize your counting stats (wins, K's). For me, though, I always take the approach of loading your lineup and taking the pitching bargains as they fall in the draft. Beat up on your opponent in five hitting categories and pitch your matchups right and trust me, you're going to be in great shape. I've done that for years with success.

Bill, D.C.

Is Longoria, Markakis, and Valverde too much to give up for Pujols and Hawpe in a dynasty league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

Well, that's probably about what it'd take, and I don't really see Jose Valverde as any big loss since closers aren't the kinds of guys I build around traditionally in dynasty leagues. But I'd probably stand pat with what you've got, because I see fine careers ahead for Longoria and Markakis and I'd probably want a little more appealing guy back than Hawpe.

Dave (Tampa)

TC, In an auction draft can you get better value by bringing out the 3rd ranked player at a position (Jimmy Rollins) early, before 1 and 2 come out?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Every auction is different, but what I can share with you is that in the LABR-NL experts league last weekend, Rollins was the third shortstop thrown out and he went for $40, almost as much as either Hanley or Reyes. So maybe you're onto something, though I'm sure that it'll be hit-or-miss from auction to auction. Frankly, I'd be less concerned about things like that than getting the best bargains I could wherever they fell.

Sedric (Baltimore, MD)

I am excited that TW has returned! Golf has slowly moved to the back burner while he was out with injury. It seems as if other players do not want to step into those shoes and lead golf.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

I'm not a golf guy, I admit, but I actually did make an effort to watch Tiger play for that brief period last year. Great watching.

Josh (NYC)

In his chat yesterday Karabell mentioned he could easily see Chris Davis being a draft day bust, and went so far as to mention him in the same sentence as Josh Fields. Do you agree with ESPN's projections for him, and what's an appropriate round to take him in 10 team, mixed league? Thanks, Tristan.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

I've got nothing against Eric's opinion, as I certainly respect it. To be fair, for as much as I've hyped Chris Davis -- chatters probably hate me for it by now -- I've also stressed that Eric's take is actually a possibility. I just choose to reside on the other end of that debate is all. We each pick and choose "our guys," and Davis is one of mine. I still say he has near-Ryan Howard raw power. Kid can hit bombs to any part of the field. I admire that a lot, and would be thinking him certainly in the seventh or eighth round, and just to note, part of that is his first-and-third base eligibility.

Joe (Minneapolis, MN)

What's the fantasy potential with Lars Anderson in Boston? Star? Above-average regular? And when do you think he'll arrive? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

I'm a fan. Maybe not MVP candidate but certainly a reliable, solid regular with All-Star potential. Problem is I think it's 2010 before we're seriously discussing him. He's a reserve pick in AL-only redraft leagues at best this year.

Barack Obama (D.C.)

Will the Bulls win the NBA Championship in the next 5 years?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

I don't know. You signing up to play for them? You know, that whole "hope and change" thing...

Lee (Philly, PA)

Our auction league just expanded from 12 to 14. How should that change my bidding strategy? Thanks Tristan!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

Well, for one thing, it should bring the overall dollar values slightly closer to a traditional AL- or NL-only league. Meaning those second-, third- and fourth-tier stars are the ones who bump up a couple bucks. You might also find that middle infield and catcher dry up a bit quicker, and just so you realize the math, 12 times two is 24, and 14 times two is 28, and there are 30 big-league teams in the game, and that means 30 full-time closers at most at any given time. Just something to think about, not that I'm telling you to go nuts bidding on closers, but it's going to change their values.

Cody Philly

THC, I know Berry is high on Choo, would you drop Gomez for him in a 10 team h2h league, if sb's aren't an issue. Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Good, I'm glad someone is! Shin-Soo Choo is actually a bit underrated, kind of like Fred Lewis is in the NL. And yes, in that format, I'd absolutely do it. But I'm not at all a fan of Carlos Gomez's bat. It's his legs you buy him for, and that's not as valuable in a points league.

Joe (Boston)

Alexei Ramirez seems to be a most divisive player among the ESPN staff. Either he's being taken too high for such a free-swinger or he's about to break out in a huge way in the thin MI positions. What do you think he can do this year? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

I've probably said it other places, but for the record, my stance on Mr. Ramirez is that he could swing for the fences and hit 25-30 bombs, or he could shorten up and try to bat .290 again, but he is not going to do both. It means I think he's OK, but comes with a little risk, and therefore shouldn't be treated with any crazy approach like a top-50 player overall. Top-100, sure, especially with second-short eligibility, but he's not a guy I'll go nuts for.

Pelc, NYC

Does it pay to draft Buchholz or will he just not get many starts this year in Boston?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

Like Phil Hughes in New York, Buchholz appears to not be a factor in the rotation race right now, but I do think we will see both in those rotations at some point. Problem is, I can't draft either expecting more than, say, 15 starts, and even that might be a stretch. I'm going to advise you don't forget about either of these high-upside talents, but the bottom line is that they're final-round, reserve material for mixed at best. You can't make either a mainstay in your staff as things stand today.

Joe K (NY, NY)

I like the article ESPN came out with about Holliday and has made be a believer. Do I take him ahead of guys like Beltran, Berkman or Carlos Lee?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Thanks, Joe, if it was our "30 Questions" piece then it was mine, so I appreciate the feedback. To me, Carlos Beltran is still very much a better pick. But I've actually got Holliday right in between Berkman and Lee in my rankings, two behind Berk, five ahead of Lee. So they're all pretty comparable to me.

Jeff (NY)

Where can I see a listing of the LABR-NLexperts draft held last weekend? Will ESPN have a NL only draft posted before opening day?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

We can't release the full results of that draft right now, Jeff, unfortunately, but if you check my chat wrap from Tuesday, my roster is in there. As for NL drafts, yes, you should not worry, we will have one for you sooner than you think!

Sam (Topeka, Kansas)

Mornin' THC! Given their ADPs a couple rounds apart, who will give a better return on value: Greinke or Meche? Baker or Slowey? Nolasco or J. Johnson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

I actually think Gil Meche gets a bad rap and deserves a higher ranking than he seems to be getting, but I'm still taking Zack Greinke first because right now they're comparable at the bare minimum, but Greinke has the much higher ceiling. With the others, it's Scott Baker for me, though that's so, so, so very close. And among the Marlins, I have Ricky Nolasco ranked higher, as I'm a believer in his talent and only doubt his ability to stay healthy. But I actually do like all these guys, they're all quite draft-worthy.

Roger (NM)

Tristan, which two or three players do you see as being the best values after pick 150?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

The first three names that come to mind that pretty much across the board go after pick 150 yet probably shouldn't are Brett Myers, Lastings Milledge and Billy Butler.

Tarr (Orlando)

Would you rather have Russell Martin for this year or Jay Bruce for the next two?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

Jay Bruce for the next two, but I'm really not a big Martin fan, seeing as the workload wore him down late last year. I'm not at all confident Joe Torre will manage him more carefully this year, either.

eddie (rochester, ny)

Who should i take with the last pick of my draft?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

The funniest final pick of any of my drafts was Pedro Cerrano. (And everyone here should know that name.) Seriously, though, that's going to be so random, the answer to that question. Carlos Villanueva is the first name that came to my mind if it's a mixed league.

Dan (Lexington, KY)

Hey Tristan, What is your favorite position to draft from in a snake-style draft. I hate picking back-to-back, as for some reason, I feel I get better talent when my draft position is near the middle of the pack.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Draft position doesn't matter all that much to me, but I agree with you about not being a fan of the bookend picks if only because it can trick you into thinking you must take one hitter and one pitcher each time your two turns come up. It takes a disciplined mind to regard those picks as individual turns in the draft that must be approached individually.

Kalter, NY

Any chance the Orioles decide to just start season with Wieters starting??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

Sure, if he hits enough to force their hand. What I'd do if I was the Orioles is try to work a long-term (stress long) deal with Wieters, like the Rays did with Evan Longoria to take the "super-two" arbitration issue out of the equation. By the way, interesting note: Most people I talk to seem to think Longoria was up around June 1, the date I'm worried Wieters might stay in the minors until, but the truth is he was up the second or third week of April, and signed that deal days later. It just felt like the Rays kept him down forever, probably because of his late-season DL stint suppressing his number of games played.

Nate (Chicago)

What are some good prospects to pick up half way through the season before their a hot commodity?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Let's take guys like Wieters and Price -- names you must know today and who might be up by Opening Day for all we know -- out of the equation. If we're talking guys who will assuredly not be on Opening Day rosters, then the next group I'd be most excited about are Brett Wallace (Cardinals 3B), Gordon Beckham (White Sox MI), Trevor Cahill (A's SP) and Mat Gamel (Brewers 3B). I'm not saying there aren't other good prospects out there, but those are "my guys" of the prospect bunch.

Rebecca (St Louis)

Who is closing for the Rockies? Street or Corpas? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

At the rate he's pitching Huston Street isn't going to be able to be trusted at all in the role. As I said in the blog yesterday, I think Street closes in Colorado if only to boost his trade value, but you need to be aware that at the rate he's pitching and dealing with health problems this spring, he's not going to hold onto it. It's a must-handcuff situation as things stand today.

Evan, NY

Would you rather have Alexei or Stephen Drew?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

Well, I have Alexei Ramirez rated about a round higher, but since I think he'll go earlier than my ranking, Stephen Drew is probably the better value comparative to his ADP. I also see him having the higher ceiling.

Brian ( Jax, Fl.)

What do you think of this trade? Chien-Ming Wang for Alex Gorden??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

Do it. And I'm a Chien-Ming Wang fan, but his strongest category is wins, and I hate that category and won't build around it. In three years the owner that gave up Gordon will be kicking him or herself. A lot.

Jake (VA Beach)

No comment on ____'s death (leaving out the 24 spoiler)?! That said, Holliday or Beltran in H2H points?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

I didn't think it necessary to see ____'s face afterward, I can tell you that! I like this season but it's starting to get just a tad more gruesome than I'm used to. A little unsettling. And I had my questions about that particular thing I don't want to spoil, too. Anyway, with the outfielders, Carlos Beltran. I've got him ranked higher in mixed besides, but he also has more aspects of the game in which he can help you.

Mike (Indy)

Thoughts on Volstad for this year? Are we going to see more of what we saw last year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

I wish I could quote you the specific statistic I had on him a couple weeks back, but it was something to the effect of among pitchers who recorded 250 or more outs in 2008, he put the largest number of balls in play and I think had an insanely low BABIP? Whatever it was exactly -- remember, I get only a few seconds to scan the brain for those tidbits -- Mr. Volstad is a huge balls-in-play guy, and those types need to be pitch perfect from turn to turn. I think he's a talented young starter with a fine future, but this is a year I'd be cautious and stay away. I want to see whether there's an adjustment period, because I fear there will be one.

Mark (MD)

Very, very, VERY deep NL-only, 5x5 league w/5 keepers. Is there any reason to consider keeping one of the following at my 5th keeper (my other 4 are easy ones): Randy Johnson at $11, Jonathan Sanchez at $3, Carlos Villanueva at $3 or Manny Corpas at $12.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

In terms of value comparative to talent, I'd probably rank those guys Randy Johnson, Carlos Villanueva, Jonathan Sanchez, Manuel Corpas. Johnson, after all, is in a good situation to squeeze out one more productive fantasy season.

Greg (Atlanta)

Hey Tristan: Who's your favorite OF sleeper? Thanks pal!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

I'll scan down the list, because different league types demand different depths of sleeper: Aforementioned Milledge, Adam Lind, aforementioned Choo, Ryan Spilborghs, Josh Anderson, Scott Hairston.

Matt (DC)

Hey Tristan, please answer my keeper question, I have a draft tomorrow, pick my final two keepers in a 6x6 head-to-head league; B.Phillips, Morneau, Quentin? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

I'd keep Brandon Phillips based on the position scarcity, and Justin Morneau based on his numbers.

Doug (Astoria, NY)

Can you name some pitchers that you are targeting late in drafts.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Again, different depths, so let's throw you a few I like: Manny Parra, Wandy Rodriguez, Sean Marshall, Frank Francisco, Anthony Reyes, Justin Masterson. Hope that helps!

Aaron (philly)

Any chance Dallas Mcpherson plays somewhere for the marlins this year and what might his numbers be if he does?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

I'd be stunned if McPherson doesn't get at least an at-bat for the Marlins this season, but to more accurately answer the question, I'm really not much of a fan, much like I'm not of Brandon Wood in Anaheim, either. They're whiff kings. Tell me all you want that both could be cheap 20-homer men. They'll probably both bat under .250 and cancel out any possible gain in the power department.

Dan (Lexington, KY)

Would your draft strategy change having OB% and quality starts as additional categories to the traditional 5X5?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

Dan, just as a tip, I don't think I'd ever have batting average and on-base percentage as categories in the same league. For me, it's traditional 5x5 or else sub out BA for OBP and SLG. Makes a lot more sense. And how do those impact things, as well as quality starts? Well, I bump up the value of good pitchers on bad teams -- think Jake Peavy, Matt Cain and Zack Greinke. I also bump up those walk men, like Adam Dunn, Jack Cust and Jason Giambi. Outside of that, no huge change.

Joe (AKRON)

TRISTAN - I've seen good things in Spring from Gordon Beckham. I know it's "only" Spring, but could take over at 2B ... or is it Getz's job this year?!?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

Are you repeating my comments from Tuesday's chat? I said the same thing. Was impressed, though to be fair, it was only one game. It's his approach to hitting that had me pleased. Anyway, I still think Beckham isn't in the 2009 discussion outside of a possible September cup of coffee, but I'll stress again that I think one year from today I'll be buzzing about him.

Mark, NY

IF Carpenter can stay healthy all year, what are the best stats we could expect out of him? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

Mark, I'll be totally frank with you. If Chris Carpenter can stay healthy all year, he could get Cy Young votes. It's the immense health risk that keeps him from being drafted as such, but as a $5-7 buy in an NL-only league, I'd be all in. Worst case you blew a handful of dollars on a guy who gave you 8-10 good starts before getting hurt. He's that risk/reward.

Steve (Denver)

Over/Under 20 Saves for Chris Perez

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

Over, but I'm a believer in raw talent, and managers not being so blind (or stupid) as not to recognize it in time to maximize it.

Dave (Tampa)

Can Brett Myers be trusted?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

I've got a thought for you, Dave, and it's just a thought: What if tasting success last October, and thereby gaining the Philly faithful's trust, is the best thing that could have happened to Myers? May I liken that a little bit to what happened with Eli Manning this past season? I could see a similar follow-up. In other words, not super-studly, but a solid, useful season. At the very least Myers did rattle off a solid second half of 2008. That bodes well.

Joe (AKRON)

Didn't read Tuesday's chat ... Rick Porcello. Does he have a good chance at making the starting rotation? I need a $1 rookie pitcher ...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

I don't think so but it's also not a very deep rotation, so I can't tell you I'm ruling it out. More likely Porcello starts in the minors and is one of those exciting midseason call-ups. I could very much see that, him being up for a half-season. Don't draft him as anything more though, and even that might be pushing it.

Reggie (Orlando)

Keeper league question: Could you justify keeping B.J. Upton over A-Rod? Will you try at least? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

Yes. And I think that answers that pretty appropriately.

Jake Peavy (San Diego)

How many wins do I get this year, 25 right?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

Everyone's a comedian.

steve (ohio)

Still debating over keeping Miggy, Utley, or Braun in H2H points league. Miggy keeps 3B for this year then becomes only 1B eligible which is very deep. Utley has position scarcity but injury risks. Braun loses 3B but is a young stud. What would you do?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Well, who can you keep? If I could have all of them, I'd keep all of them. If I had to rank them by overall value, it's Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and then Chase Utley. Cabrera's offensive upside is too good to worry about his position, if that helps.

Tom (SF)

Should I trade Lincecum for Peavy and Qualls

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

I wouldn't, but on paper I bet there will be some people who will think that's a fair deal. I just see more 2009 downside in Jake Peavy than I do Tim Lincecum. Enough to have me give that a clear "no."

Eric (Boston, MA)

Top 5 players in a 5X5 15 team snake?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

This is my top 15 as it stands today:1Albert Pujols2Hanley Ramirez3Jose Reyes4David Wright5Ryan Braun6Grady Sizemore7Miguel Cabrera8Mark Teixeira9Carlos Beltran10Johan Santana11Josh Hamilton12Tim Lincecum13Jimmy Rollins14Chase Utley15Lance Berkman

Mike Baltimore

I am getting offers for Andrus in a keeper league... have him at $3....should I trade him for Markakis $3 and Slowey $6

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

Without question, MIke, and I do understand you needing to ask it seeing as you wouldn't want to be taking Oriole bias into account!

Bob (NY)

What's your take on Ervin Santana? What round should we be thinking of taking him now that this elbow injury is in play? I was going to keep him but am really thinking twice now.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

I kept him before news of that broke and am saddened today. I'd probably estimate his value at about 80-85 percent of what it would have been a month ago. I had him just outside my top 10 starters back then, but today I'd probably only call him keeper-worthy if the league as a whole kept more than 100 players total.

Dave (Tampa)

Do you think Seattle will move Morrow back into the bullpen? Over/under on 150 innings?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

I think it'd be foolish of any team to keep bumping a pitcher back and forth between the bullpen and rotation. Might that not be partly responsible for Morrow's recent health issues? I'm taking the under, though I wasn't ever all that much of a fan because of his high WHIP.

Alan (NY, NY)

Forgive me if you've already discussed this...why do you choose Pujols over HanRam?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

I feel like he's at his peak right now, is coming off a monster season that answered any question anyone could possibly have had about him and while I'm not especially worried about this, that there's at all a chance that Hanley's shift to the No. 3 hole in the order eats into his steals numbers or throws him off his game has me putting him a hair behind Pujols. That's all it is, and in no way could I fault anyone who wanted either of those guys No. 1 overall. They're pretty much interchangeable.

Brandt (DC)

how would you rank maine, marcum, maholm?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

John Maine, Paul Maholm, Shaun Marcum. I don't think we see much of Marcum this year.

Tim (Houston)

What's for Lunch TC?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

Eggplant parm. Mmmm. Getting hungry.

A-Rod (Vail, CO)

Don't forget me! I'll be back!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

Uhhhh, sorry A-Rod, you're definitely not a top-five pick now! And I'm growing increasingly terrified to pick you.

Chad (dc)

Do you think Jack Egbert (White Soxs) has a chance at making the opening day roster and making the rotation? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Well, last I checked he had a disappointing stint in Triple-A in 2008, so I think he begins the year repeating that level. I'm a little more skeptical about him today than I was a year ago, but I could see him being a midseason pickup for fantasy. I don't think he'll be on the Opening Day roster though.

Manny (L.A.)

What about me! I AM back!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

Solid late-second, early-third pick.

Barack Obama (D.C.)

I'm Barack Obama, and I've approved this chat!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

Awesome! Well, with that, time to wrap things up for the day. Thank you for all your questions, and sorry if I couldn't get to yours ... always so many during spring training! Take care everyone, and best of luck to you in your drafts this weekend.